The Formula To 93 Wins: Two 11-Game Stretches Remain

Hello, fellow Tigers fans! It's officially been 11 games since our last update, let's see how the boys stand!

11 games after being 76 – 53 the Tigers have gone 4 – 7 and we sit at 80 – 60. This is below the pace needed to win 93+ games, as averaging 4 wins per 11 games the rest of the year would result in a 88 win season

The Tigers recent 4 – 7 stretch is disappointing, and one of their worst 11-game stretches this year. That said, we enter the final two stretches with 80 wins, and I think anyone would have taken that deal going into the year. At this point, any loss for the KC or Cleveland is as good as a win for us. Last night, the Tigers lost, and so did KC and Cleveland. This was effectively as good as us winning and both of the doing the same (Cleveland has 3 more games to play than us, and 6 against us, so it's not exact, but close). Houston and Seattle lost as well, so the challengers for the #2 division winner also did not gain ground

After last night's games, the Royals are 9 games back of the Tigers, and because the Tigers have the season series, they require an extra win to win the division over us. If the Tigers were to win 5 of their remaining 22 games (resulting in an 85 – 77 record), the Royals would need to go 16 – 8 to win the Central

Cleveland is different as they have a whopping 6 games left to play against us, which represents 27% of the Tigers remaining season. Let's say the worst happens and we go 0 – 6 to them in those games. If the Tigers went 5 – 11 in the remaining 16 games (to finish 85 – 77), Cleveland would need to go 11 – 8 in their remaining 19 to finish ahead of the Tigers. If the Tigers go 2 – 4 in those 6, and 5 – 11 in their other 16, Cleveland would need to go 15 – 4 in their remaining 19 to top the Tigers

Also, no MLB team in history has ever blown a 9.5 game division lead with 22 games to play. One thing I learned in trading was that anytime people say "this time is different!", they're wrong. Anytime means 99.99% of the time…I'd say that this time will not be different, and the Tigers will win the AL Central

Looking to our final 22, I think there are 10 – 12 "high chance" games of winning, and I believe the team will win at least 90 games, which will be more than enough to win the Central. Now let's see who shined and who struggled…

Amongst hitters, we saw a lot of production (as the boys scored a ton of runs, losing both games where they scored 8…), but also some players really woof at the plate. Keith, who has been hot and consistent since May 1, ran a putrid -6 wRC+, and Sweeney and Baez combined for poor hitting from short. Kerry Carpenter had a big slump as well. On the positive side of things, Riley continued his tear, and we saw 9 hitters post pretty good numbers. It just was not enough to make up for the poor pitching, as you might guess when you lose not one, but TWO games by a score of 8 – 10!

For the pitching, the best pitcher in baseball continued to dominate with a 0.66 ERA over 13.2 IP. Finnegan, the best reliever deadline acquisition, posted a stellar shutout 5.2 IP, all in high leverage situations. Broadly, pitching really let the Tigers down, as those of you who have watched the Mets score 22 runs the past 2 games can attest to. Vest gave us our first loss of the year when leading after the 8th, and at least 2 games that could have been won were lost due to relief pitching. Paddack and Morton fell apart, posting ERAs of 9 and 11.42 across their combined 18.2 IP. In all, 53.2 innings were pitched by Tigers who posted an ERA north of 7 on this stretch, which makes one wonder if 4 wins was more than you'd expect in a normative situation with that pitching

The Tigers have won 57.1% of their games so far this season. If they were to continue at that pace, they'd finish the year with 93 wins!

If the Tigers play .500 ball the rest of the way out (11 – 11), they will finish with 91 wins

The weekly magic number is 6.5, as the Tigers need to average 6.5 wins per 11-game stretch to hit 93 wins

Go Tigers!