Minnesota Vikings confidence and concerns vs. Chicago Bears

Minnesota Vikings confidence and concerns vs. Chicago Bears

Purple Daily is daily Vikings entertainment. I just want the Vikings to win a Super Bowl before we die. I will ride with this group. Seriously, man. Please. And away we go. Welcome in to Purple Daily. Vikings takes 365 days out of the year. And this is our first Purple Picks episode of the season, boys. We’ve made it to the point we are actually going to pick a Vikings game for the first time in like what seven and a half months. Are we excited? Hell yeah. Finally. Let’s go. I mean, it’s taken long long enough. And I don’t remember. How did we do last season? Do you have that? I do have that. Okay. I was curious. And we’ll get to that in just a second. Right. No, I’m just curious if we had that still because I don’t feel like I had a great year. Start. Yeah. We’ll uh Dante roll. Yeah. No. No. I was doing a false start by Jud. False move back five yards. We can make up for it though. We’ll make up for it. We’ll get to it. We’ll get to all the different categories that we we’ll get to what the sharps are saying, what the markets are saying. So, I I just pulled open prize picks here. A couple shout outs before we get to the uh the meat of the episode here. So, prize picks right now for this game on Monday is giving you essentially a free square. It’s Justin Jefferson 0.5 receiving. Uh, well, you know, I take that back. This is not a freebie. It’s 0.5 rush and receiving touchdowns. Uh, there are other fun freebies on here that you can get in on, like Lamar Jackson.5 passing yards, unless you know, like the Aaron Rogers thing from a couple years ago happens. But you take more on that and you select more or less for two to six players on their projected stats. Place your entry. It’s super easy. Prize Pix is the best way to win real money this football season. Download the Prize Pix app today. Use the code purple daily to get $50 in lineups when you play just $5. That’s code purple daily when you get uh you get $50 in lineups when you play just $5. And a shout out to Roku, the official football watching TV. Jud’s got the Roku hat on. Rocking it this weekend. And uh Roku has been great for the start of football season in the Mackey and Zulgad households. They give you access to uh the Sport Zone, which allows you to easily find the teams and the games and the platforms you’re looking for. It can be kind of confusing in today’s age to figure out what channel is the game on. Roku makes it super easy. Roku connects us all after a long day at work, winding down for the night. Uh maybe you’re looking to deck out your home, some other random rooms, or maybe your college apartment or dorm room. They have different TVs that can fit different rooms. Find out more at roku.com. Roku, America’s number one streaming platform, football. All right, dudes. So, we’ll start with uh this will be an exercise every week where we go through the playoff odds, what the sharps are saying about this upcoming game, and then we’ll get into some of the questions that we’re going to have every week. But let’s start with playoff odds from ESPN’s football power index, the FBI. The FBI. Yeah. Bum bum. So, they’ve got the Vikings to start the season with a 45% chance to make the playoffs, a 21% chance to win the division, and a 3% chance to win the Super Bowl. What are your general thoughts on 45% just under a coin flip to make the playoffs, 21% division, 3% Super Bowl? Um, I think it’s very fair this time of year where and I do think that there is a problem in trying to to handicap the division because you’ve got three teams that are expected to be good and hell the national folks think there’s going to be four if you include the Bears. So, I think that is a very fair prediction based on how much we don’t know yet about how that division in particular is going to shape up. Yeah, it it it seems about right. And it’s it’s a loaded north um conference is kind of I wouldn’t say wide open, but wide open for in terms of if you’re not including Philadelphia, like there’s a there’s a case to be made for a lot of teams maybe go to the Super Bowl this year in the NFC. So yeah, I think the math is mathing there from a guy who does no math. Yeah, I mean the 21% to win the division for coin flippy to make the playoffs that feels you have a really tough schedule. If you don’t handle those eight games after the buy in the right way, the season could really get away from you. If you don’t start 4 and one or 5-0, the season could I think there’s a lot of pressure on the Vikings to start hot. If you start like three and two, okay, you’re above 500. It’s not a disaster, but can you start three and two and then play the Eagles, Lions, Ravens, the Commanders, all these teams you have coming out of the buy? Yeah. Couple games against the Packers down the stretch. There’s just there’s going to be a lot of pressure then to play above 500 football for the toughest stretch. So, I think if they get off to a good start, like 4-1 or 5-0, then that 45% chance to make the playoffs goes well above 50 into like the 60 65% range. Agree completely. Yep. You you just have to see. And plus, outside of like a team like the Chiefs and back in the day, the Patriots, this league at this time of year trying to make these type of predictions is so tough because I mean, a year ago, did we expect the Eagles to win the Super Bowl? I mean, at one point, halfway through the season, or a little less than halfway, they were a dumpster fire as far as the chaos. So, I just think it’s so difficult to make predictions. I I think it’s easier to try and aim for an overunder win total than like playoffs, Super Bowl, things like that because they’re just so far down the road. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. What are the Sharps saying about this game from Action Network? I’ll be honest, what’s that? I said they’re saying they love the Bears. the Bears are going to be unbelievable. I mean, there’s a touch of that in here. There’s also not that much confident uh information because we don’t know what JJ McCarthy looks like. And also, Sharps don’t really know what Caleb Williams is going to look like in this new offense. So, these are actually two of the most mysterious teams in the NFL. and that on paper you can make a case with coaching and systems and talent and whatever that yeah you can make a playoff case but there could also be some major growing pain. So the Vikings are one and a half point favorites going in. This line opened with the Bears as one and a half point favorites. So it has swung three points over the last several weeks. And Action Network writes, “The Vikings have a new quarterback sort of with secondyear man JJ McCarthy healthy and set to debut. This was a team that thrived by completing shorter passes to their skilled pass catchers. And while McCarthy should be able to do that, he won’t have the suspended Jordan Addison here or Rond Del Moore who’s out for the season. So he a little a little bit of trepidation about the lack of weapons even though we think Adam Thielen still has gas in the tank. I know we were swept off our feet by the Vikings in 2024, but this is already looking like a much different season without a ton of other context. I was going to say, okay, what’s the next paragraph say? Chicago’s offensive line is I just drop it. He makes a he makes a point about Jefferson being on the injury report, you know, or or having the hamstring thing. Yeah. And CJ Ham being out, which he only plays like 20% of the snaps. I got to be honest, you sort of you sort of lose me a little bit when you mention now the first one is fair, but when you mention Jordan Addison and Rond Del Moore in the same sentence, Sports Dad sort of pieces out. Like Rond Del Moore might like the biggest miss there is a punt returner. Like we have no idea if he was going to he might have played at receiver, but like when you’re drawing those two like oh they’re missing two key guys, you know, check with me first. I’ll tell you take Rond Del Moore out of that sentence. In fact, you know what? Pay me. I’ll edit your copy because uh Jordan, yes, Rondale, God bless him. I’m sorry he got hurt, but he’s not he’s not should not be in that sentence. It is. Yeah. That’s where like the outside perspective versus the Juds camp notes on the ground perspective. Rond Del Moore was never viewed as a necessity for this to be a top 10 offense. He was viewed as a fun luxury that, oh, if if he could be healthy and come in, maybe you could use him as a third wide receiver, fourth wide receiver. But he was never an integral part of what you were set to do. Yeah. On the Chicago side, Action Network writes, “Chic’s offensive line is only getting better with veteran Joe Tuni joining the fold, and Minnesota’s defensive line is one of the strengths of their team with the fourth best pass rush win rate a year ago.” Uh, the offensive line should help Caleb Williams in this regard, but he’s been too volatile to trust, particularly without much of a running game. though we recommend leaving this game alone from a betting perspective, but I the author wants it on the record that I am a believer in the Bears this season in the division. So, he’s saying Bears optimism, but from a sharp perspective would not touch this game. Vikings one and a half point favorites. How about that? Okay, I got a Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Here’s my problem. Not enough info, Jud. Here’s my problem with this. Okay. I understand what he’s saying from a sharp perspective and like like I guess if you’re a sharpy sharp sharp you would might leave this game alone but it’s the Monday night game to end week one. Everyone’s going to everyone who enjoys gambling is going to want to bet this game. Do not tell me leave this game alone. Take a stand. Like like I get like I get if you make a living off of this you probably are like I don’t like this game but really I mean it’s the money if nothing else this is where everyone’s going to make back all the money they lost over the weekend. I don’t like this at all. Sorry. So in terms of people that have put money on this game where is the money going? Well 54% of the bets are on the Bears to cover. Mhm. But 56% of the money is on the Vikings. So, you’ve got some bigger money coming in on the Vikings. Maybe more casual. Chicago’s a big market. Maybe more casuals are betting the Bears because, you know, they’re drinking Bears Kool-Aid or something. Oh, yeah. So, what are you guys most confident in on behalf of the Vikings in this game? I am most confident on this. Um, as great as the Bears are now, and I hear they’re unbelievable. I hear they’re going to ascend to Canton right after this this game. and they’re going to lift lift up off the ground and go right to Canton. Uh but I am most confident the Vikings are going to have some success in their pass game. Not necessarily because of the Vikings as much as the fact that Jaylen Johnson, who is an absolutely key corner to this team. Uh he missed all of training camp be because of it says calf and groin, but it’s a groin. He he was doing I offseason workouts and I guess he badly injured his groin. Well, last time I checked for a quarterback that’s really bad. Now he’s back at practice, but he’s still not full go. This is going to be his first real football activity in quite some time if he plays. And so if you take him out, like I think that there’s and I’m not saying that you’re going to have uh huge pass plays constantly. But Dennis Allen, the new Bears defensive coordinator, is going to run or wants to run man coverage, which means the plan was or is Jaylen Johnson shadows the best receiver on the opposing team, which in this case is Justin Jefferson. Well, if Jaylen Johnson is slowed or simply can’t play, guess what? Somebody else has to step up and it’s not real pretty there. So, as much concern as I have about the Vikings corners, I think the Bears, like this is if you took Byron Murphy Jr. or perhaps a better version of him out of the lineup. So, I’m most confident that the Vikings are going to be able to complete passes and that Justin Jefferson, you can you can double team him, but if you take Jaylen Johnson out or slow him down, it’s going to be a big advantage for the Vikings. Yeah, I would Yeah, I would say the thing that I’m most confident in is the Vikings finally have a two-headed monster and they have an effective running game that they can run the football. Um the the weather in Chicago is looking like it’s going to be a very pristine nice night in Chicago. Now, weird things regardless of weather being appropriate or not appropriate. Weird things seem to happen when you go to Chicago and play the Bears in their stadium. I will say though, the running game, Jordan Mason in the deep red, Aaron Jones uh still getting some good touches and and being able to catch the football making your life easier for your your first year starting quarterback uh in JJ McCarthy. So, I I I’m very confident that the running game uh should set the tone and make life easy for JJ and the rest of the Vikings offense. Yeah, it would uh I’m really curious to see this running game with this new offensive line, the glimpses we got of of Donovan Jackson, too. There’s just an athletic ability there that that seems different than what you were getting from your your guards on on either side the last few years. So, it it it’s been a minute. It’s been since like prime Dvin Cook since we’ve felt like the Vikings can just spend three hours running the ball at someone with the passing game secondary. Really throughout the entire Kevin Oonnell era, it the running game has been secondary. I think the thing I’m most confident in Caleb Williams as a rookie last year when under pressure had a 65 passer rating and completed only 44% of his passes. He had a handful of interceptions when pressured and just generally his accuracy, his processing and everything slowed way down. In fact, his his pressure to sack rate, which is something they track Pro Football Focus, he was sacked on one in every three three and a half pressures. So, part of part of the NFL being a quarterback is like you’re going to get pressured and sometimes if you’re a quarterback, it’s your fault if you hang on to the ball too long and there’s a pressure like that’s on you, man. That’s not on your right tackle. But when you are pressured, can you get rid of the ball without something terrible happening? And the answer for Caleb Williams as a rookie was no. He either took sacks or uh or he didn’t throw that many interceptions or he would fumble. He had like 10 fumbles last year, too. So, I I do think as he gets older, he’s talented. He should start processing defenses a little bit more quickly. But, is that going to happen in week one of a new offensive system? new offensive line. Everyone’s trying to figure out the communication. Ben Johnson coaching his first NFL game as a head coach against Brian Flores’s defense. Now, on the flip side, a lot of people are going to point to Ben Johnson has carved Flores’s defense as a coordinator with Detroit, but I don’t know that you can just take what he did as a coordinator. It’s like Adam Gase goes from Denver with Pton Manning to the Jets, right? Well, look at him carving. Dude, who you have at quarterback, offensive line matters as a play caller. And so I you kind of throw that stat out the window, but I just think I’m most confident in Flores finding a way to pressure Caleb Williams and Caleb Williams not handling it very well. Well, and can Caleb succeed in week one in an offensive system that sort of goes against how he likes to play? Like there’s just a lot of things here. I I think this assumption that uh that this is going to be Ben Johnson and Jared Goff and Detroit teams that were really talented is ridiculous. So yeah, I I’m curious I’m actually more curious to see Caleb and Ben Johnson when they come to US Bank Stadium deeper into the season to see if it started to click. But if they come out on Monday night and click immediately, I’ll be really surprised. What are you guys most nervous about on behalf of the Vikings before we get to the actual picks? You know, I’m going to take something that we saw beginning on Thursday night and it’s going to carry over. It’s going to permeate week one and it sucks, but it’s a fact and it’s not great. And it’s this. The emphasis on calling penalties for anything that resembles taunting. If you sneeze, now I’m not saying Jaylen Clark spit on Dak Prescott. Very dumb. Spit on anyone. Very dumb. You’re out of the game. I’m sure Kevin Oonnell and every other coach in National Football League will emphasize that point. But, you know, we saw a lot of flags. It reminded me a little bit of the you cannot put 75.2% of your weight on the quarterback when he falls or but if you put 75.1, it’s okay. And guys just started throwing flags left and right cuz we’re like, we stopped calling that I feel like a couple years ago. Oh, we did. Oh, you I think we aborted that like six weeks into the season. We’re just like, okay, we’re good on that. My point is and and I think we’ll calm down the flags on taunting and things like that, but you know, these older officials, guys like me, have been given cart blanch now to show these young kids you can’t do that. And so, like Justin Jefferson gets up and does stuff sometimes. And I’m not saying like the slashing thing or pretending to shoot a gun, but we saw calls in the Thursday night game that I thought were like really that’s a penalty like like that’s a long So I’m concerned about that because it’s a penalty, it’s yards, it’s a mistake, but I also feel like it’s very arbitrary. Like what is like I would like to know exactly if I get up and I’m too excited and I don’t have a teammate celebrating with me. Are you throwing a flag? So, this is just an early season cuz I hate this stuff cuz you never know when it’s going to bite you in the ass. I would say the thing that would concern me going into the Bears game is if they force the Bears force andor O’Connell basically makes JJ McCarthy throw 35 to 40 times. I want this to be an easein process for McCarthy and I feel like if you’re going to ask him to ball out and drop back 40 times and have to sling it all around, I don’t like the Vikings chances to win that game. So that that would be what concerns me is if you just put too much on a rookie quarterback, he kind of shortcircuits in his first start um or f sec first time starting quarterback. I know he’s not a rookie, but Boon Knicks last year um I believe had a really rough first game um to to debut. Then in game two, things started to click and he had a very productive uh rookie season with Denver. So if if they either force McCarthy or KC just abandons the running game, which he has a tendency to do, I don’t like the Vikings chances to beat the Bears. uh similar thread for me. I don’t it’s I’m not as nervous about like he’s going to throw passes. So this this whole idea that like oh we’re gonna he’s he wasn’t drafted to hand the ball off like he did at M he was drafted for the non-handoff stuff he did at Michigan. So at some point like we got to get over this like oh he can only throw the ball 20 times and if he’s well you don’t draft a kid 10th overall because you’re afraid to let him throw the football. That being said, watching him in enough practices and the preseason game, the thing that makes me the most nervous is his propensity to sail passes. He’s got a cannon and he is not afraid to make anticipatory throws. And so those are things you can’t teach. But the problem that we have seen, one in every nine or 10 throws in practice and preeason even, you don’t even give your receiver a chance over the middle of the field. It sails three yards over his head. Boom. There’s a safety waiting there. So, I could see something like that happening. He’s amped up. It’s his first game. He tries to zing one over on a third and eight over the head of Justin Jefferson. Boom. Bears pick it off. Coming back the other way. Like that. that is flashing in my head right to a safety. Yeah, his um his mechanics on those throws I think are a little bit off still and I I don’t know if that’s something they can control in in game, but I think to go back to Declan’s point too is McCarthy is going to pass and he can pass. He’s got a great arm, but the reality is I think this is more on Okonnell and game flow. Like like are you going to are you going to make calls that you’re comfortable with because that’s what you like or are you going to make the right call and help the kid out as as well there? You know what? If we get done if we’re doing this show, God willing, in February after a Super Bowl win and we say, you know what, JJ McCarthy did a really good job of managing the season. Like he did a really good job. Ain’t no shame in that. like like so so that’s what I’m but I put as much of what Declan’s concerned about or more I actually put more on Okonnell because you know he just has some things that he goes back to and we’ve never seen him break that trend yet in game which I think is difficult for people. So but yeah I mean he’s going JJ McCarthy is going to pass. It was interesting did did you guys hear the response Okonnell gave in the press conference? He was asked couple press conferences ago about Max Bros who he’s clearly infatuated with. Um, which is great because he he he was f he was a great story. But he mentioned the fact that and Okonnell does this because he’s sort of passive aggressive. He mentioned the fact that Brosmer doesn’t try to throw the ball through guys or he doesn’t try to throw fast balls. It it was uh and look I mean I think Okonnell appreciates Brosmer is a really smart astute kid. But it was definitely if not a shot at McCarthy it was definitely a shot of uh that’s what our guy doesn’t do as well yet. tension building already before even played. I think it’s more of a I think it’s more of a he’s admitting something that McCarthy can struggle with at times, but he doesn’t want to come out and say that like he’s not going to broach that and say JJ McCarthy got to bring that ball down about, you know, five RPMs. Yeah. Well, let’s make our official picks here in just a moment. uh Federated Insurance helping to power these picks in week one here. Just like they are helping business owners like a great offensive line protecting you, the quarterback, the business owner, Federated specializes in putting together customized insurance plans that can protect your reputation, your workplace, your employees, and your financial assets for small and medium-sized businesses. next generation business owners. If you’re taking over the family business or you are a younger, newer business owner, Federated specializes in working with you. So, find out more at federated insurance.com where it’s our business to protect yours. Judge rocking the Padre shirt today. If you’re looking for a good uh Irish pour, we got the place for you. It’s funny, you know, we talk about food and beer pairings, right? Food and beer pairings. What tastes good with a certain beer? Well, you know what? football. I’m a football chef. Okay. So, I forget the food. I want to talk to you about football and beer pairings. And that is where Padres’s comes in because here’s what makes football and beer uh and Padres’s in this case so good together is Padres’s makes beer that tastes like beer. A local craft brewery. They’re recreating the Irish and UK classics as well as innovative craft beers. Um, I’ve been telling you about the Red Chimney for quite uh some time and I’m going to tell you right now, if you’re going to be watching games, which you are, football games, Monday Night, Monday Night Football, I want you to get the Red Chimney Padres’s and enjoy it with football. It is the perfect pairing. It’s al also available now in more than 200 liquor stores in the metro area, Rochester, and Mano. Check them out on Facebook or Instagram or visit their website, padregs.com. padregs.com. the ideal from a football chef. The ideal football and beer pairing. Uh Dex has used Two Men in a Truck a few times. I used Two Men in a Truck recently as well. Super efficient, super communicative. It was a great experience for the Mackey’s Dex. Yeah, it was it was a super good experience for us, too. You know, they’ll even prioritize getting your junk out as well. So, if you have all this unwanted junk, even, you know, before you start your move or if if you’re not ready to move, you got to get rid of all this stuff, they can actually take care of that, too. So whether you’re looking to move, whether you’re looking to get rid of that junk, they’re going to make it easy for you. They’ll they’ll they’ll what what they quote is what you pay. So there’s no hidden fees. There is no service charges. They just send you over the spreadsheet of what needs to be moved. You don’t have to worry about getting your friends or your parents or whoever has a truck. I’ll tell you who has trucks. Two men in a truck does. So have them do the move. Two men in a truck.com. All right, let’s make some picks here. Vikings one and a half point favorites over Debears. Last year, all three of us tied picking straight up. We are all 13-5 picking straight up, including the playoff game. Okay. Declan won against the spread 107 and one last year. Congratulations, Dex. Thank you. Thank you. Uh last year or the year before that, I won against the spread 87-2. And Dex was the straightup winner 11-6. So, we got to we got to get Jud on the board here. Yeah. Against I tied you guys for first last year. I feel good about that. for straight up. I’m bad with I much better I’d much rather just pick straight up than spreads. So, I’m actually pretty surprised better than we were against the spread. Yeah, I know. I’m surprised last year I was better with the spread. Yeah, the spreads because the spreads screw you with weird things that happen at the end of games and stuff. So, Jud, you start off here. Who win? Vikings one and a half point favorites. Who wins straight up and by how many? Vikings win at Soldierfield. No longer a house of horrors for the purple and they win by by three points because I do think it’s close. Close shave. Yep. Yep. But they’re favored by you said a point and a half. So they cover, but yeah. Yeah, it’s a close shave. I I don’t think we’re in for a blowout here. I think we’re in for a close game. It’s just because it’s week one. There’s just so many arbitrary weird things. Plus, guys, unscouted looks. We got unscouted looks coming up. So many out unscouted looks. Yeah, all of the unscouted looks. Dex, yeah, I I have the Vikings winning. I am covering I believe the over under two in this game just 43 and a half. So kind of could be a lowscoring game. I think it will be a lowscoring game. Vikings win and by I I’ll say by four, but I I think it’s also going to be one possession and pretty dang close, but they’ll win and they will cover the one and a half. Maybe I’m in the minority here. Uh I got Vikings winning and covering the one and a half. I I think I think the world is sleeping on the Vikings. I really do. I think they’re they’re just oddly p especially the first five games. I could if you think the schedule’s going to get them at some point. Okay, we can talk about the Ravens and the Eagles and the Lions. The I am I am, as you guys know, I’m not a Bears believer. Uh I think they’re going to be competitive. They should be better coached than they were last year, but this is a great week to get the Bears as they try to get their house organized. new system, new head coach, everything. So, I think it’s more like 27 to 13. I think the Vikings win by double digits, okay, is my prediction. Okay. Vikings by double digits in this one. Week one’s just tough. It is just tough because there’s a lot of things that that we don’t know. The McCarthy factor, like he’s played in huge games before, so he shouldn’t be freaked out by this, but there’s just a lot of things. But yes, I do think the Vikings win this game. So yeah, let us know in the comments section who wins by how many. And we’ll do this every single weekend before every game all season long here. Our Purple Picks episode of Purple Daily for the Sports Dad for Dex. I’m Phil. We’ll see you for NFL Takes Monday morning at 9:00 a.m. and for Vent Line after Monday Night Football. See you.

Minnesota Vikings confidence and concerns vs. Chicago Bears; Purple Picks is back for the 2025 Vikings season; Why the running game should benefit the Vikings; Will the Vikings force McCarthy to throw the football a ton and more on Purple Daily.

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