The Brewers’ Strange Experiment is Breaking Baseball

The Brewers’ Strange Experiment is Breaking Baseball

The 2025 Brewers have embarked on not just one but two 10 plus game winning streaks. It is back Sodto back out of here. While simultaneously utilizing philosophies that defy modern baseball logic. Check this out. In a matchup against the Seattle Mariners on July 23rd, the Brewers scored 10 runs on 17 hits. Do you notice any similarities between some of these hits? 10 of them were ground balls. Since 2024, on only 17 occasions has a team accumulated double-digit ground ball hits in a singular game. The Brewers and Phillies are the only teams to accomplish this at least three times. Unsurprisingly, the 2025 Brewers possess the league’s fourth highest ground ball rate, an inefficient method of manufacturing runs according to modern analytics. Combine this with an underwhelming hard hit rate, a bottom five pull air rate and the league’s lowest barrel rate, it’s clear the Brewers have chosen to defy new school saber metrics. But in reality, they’re deceiving you. To label the Brewers as anti-analytical is an extreme oversimplification of their multi-layered foundation. A foundation that just may carry them to postseason glory in 2025. Deep left field. Did he get? Yes, he did. It’s a walkoff home run. [Applause] With MLB’s playoff races ramping up and the NFL season right around the corner, many exciting games are on the horizon. And that’s where today’s sponsor comes in. SeatGeek. With more than 70,000 events to choose from, including sports, concerts, festivals, and more, SeatGeek has got your ticketing needs covered. Personally, I’ve used SeatGeek for all of my MLB tickets this year, including a great deal I got on an Angels game last month. And with SeatGeek being MLB’s official ticket marketplace, I rest assured knowing my MLB tickets are fully guaranteed and instantly fulfilled after purchase. What I love about SeatGeek is how simple browsing tickets is, thanks to their rating system, a 1 to 10 scale, where green means good and red means bad. So, make sure to look for the green dots. Plus, every ticket is backed by their buyer guarantee. And finally, for all of you watching, Segeek is offering 10% off your next set of tickets with code storm 10. That’s 10% off any tickets at Segeek using code storm 10. So, make sure you click the link in the description to download the app and have the code automatically added to your account so you can use it later. Thank you, SeatGeek. Runner at third, nobody out. Cheerio at the plate. 3-2 Cheerio line drive down. Base hit into the corner it goes. It’s game number six of the 2025 regular season and young star Jackson Cheerio ties the game with a double in the 10th inning. With no outs in the inning, Christian Yell is intentionally walked, but then a Boach loads the bases for an offense who currently ranks third in runs scored when the bases are loaded. However, less than a week into the regular season, the 2025 Brewers identity was still a blank canvas. Worst case scenario for Milwaukee there. Entering the 2025 season, many questions surrounded the state of this team. From the departures of William and Deon Williams to numerous pitching injuries, resulting in opening day playoff odds of 35.8%, 8% 15 points below a Cubs team who just added all-star Kyle Tucker to their lineup. In fact, since 2018, the Brewers have led the NL Central in opening day playoff odds only twice. Yet, they’ve made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons. Overall, this team seems to always find a way to win. And Tang does square. Gets a buck down. Here comes Den. He scores and the Brewers win 3-2 at 11. The Brewers currently lead the league in both bunt hits and infield hits. Just one example of the collective mindset instilled by manager Pat Murphy. Relentlessness. One of the five main principles behind the success of the 2025 Brewers. Take a look at this. This is a tattoo on Pat Murphy’s right bicep. What is the 200 club? No, it’s not the number of pitches Luis Arise has taken down the heart of the plate this season. That number is 233. No, it’s actually a numerical code for a specific phrase. To decrypt this phrase, picture each letter in the alphabet as a numerical value. One for A, two for B, three for C, and so on. Altogether, this phrase equals 200. So, what is the phrase? Yeah, in this game you’re going to fail at times, but you have to keep your head down and keep going. That’s the 200 club. And this mantra was tested early in the 2025 season as the result of injuries and overall underperformance, plunging their playoff odds to single digits in miday. When you go through stretches like this, you could point to a lot of things, but the bottom line is here we are and what are we going to do about it. So, what did they do about it? They became the hottest team in baseball. It’s going to get good. Here comes CS. He will score. Andrew Vaughn delivers in the clutch. They set the game and the Brewers win. They sweep the Dodgers. This one’s going to split the gap. The throw in T. We are tied and the Brewers win in walkoff style. What a comeback game. S comes up big again for the Brewers. The deep right. and his way back. Since May 18th, the Brewers have been the definitive best team in baseball. And there’s five specific factors behind their success. Along with their relentless nature is their old school smallball offense. Let’s take a look at the three-game series between the Brewers and Mets in early August. In each of these games, the Mets scored first, but it was the Brewers who swept the series. Let’s start with the fifth inning of game one. Kodai Sena had been cruising through the Milwaukee lineup, but then he botched a routine play, allowing Blake Perkins to reach base. Bryce Terraang capitalized immediately. Deep right center. See you later. We’re tied. Hey, just because this team possesses the league’s lowest barrel rate, that doesn’t mean they can’t crush a home run every once in a while. It’s just that home runs are not at the forefront of their offensive identity. So, what is? Let’s watch the aftermath of Terraang’s game-tying home run. A walk, catcher’s interference, another walk, and a hit by pitch. That’s how the Brewers took the lead, ultimately winning the game 3 to2. Now, let’s fast forward to the second ending of the following day. Once again, the Mets have taken the early lead. How do the Brewers answer back? With a single, another single, and a walk to load the bases with two outs for Joey Ortiz. So, what happens next? Ortiz a chopper up the middle. Going to be a tough play. It’s off the door. Another miscue that goes the way of the Brewers. Okay, so the Brewers are just lucky. No, not necessarily. Rather, their collective contact hitting patient approach at the plate combined with their speed allows the Brewers to create opportunities for miscues more often than power ccentric offenses. Backing up to grab it is Sodto or was it time violation? A pitch clock violation on Helsley and that erases an out and big left center. Now, I’m not saying their offensive philosophy is simply capitalizing on mistakes, but it’s certainly a factor in this team’s relentless brand of offense. Let’s simplify their offensive identity into three categories: contact, patience, and speed. I’m going to name a bunch of stats that fit into at least one of these categories. Top three batting average, top three on base percentage, top three number of stolen bases, the league’s best BSR, Fan Graphs’s all-encompassing base running stat, a league low swing rate, the league’s best chase rate, a top five whiff rate, a top three double play rate, a top five productive out rate, a top five extra base taken rate, and finally, the league’s best base runner scoring percentage. Yes, the Brewers possess uninspiring barrel, hard hit, and pull air rates. Yes, their established identity doesn’t conform to modern baseball efficiency. Nonetheless, their strategy is working. Two-run single back in the fourth inning with the bases loaded and two out. Can he come up in a big situation against Ryan Helley? Ortiz a bouncer. And we are tied. Something special is going on right here in Milwaukee. It is back. Sod back out of here. And the Brewers have won their ninth straight game. [Applause] This is Isaac Collins. Not only the hero of this game, but as the athletics Tyler Keaptainner put it, is someone who embodies the Brewers winning ways. Let’s rewind a couple innings before his walk-off. William Contrarus is at the plate. Collins is on first. Brewers are down one run with one out. Contrarus squeezes a batted ball through the 5.5 hole to put Collins in scoring position. But Collins, in a split-second decision, makes the charge to third base, and he succeeds. He took the extra base. While it ultimately didn’t matter because of a double play immediately after, the Brewers unwavering onfield identity ultimately carried them to victory, a result of some crafty decisions made off the field. [Applause] Today, Isaac Collins is a key member of the Brewers. However, a few years ago, he was a middling prospect with little hope for a big league future. A 2019 ninthround pick by the Colorado Rockies following a 93 WRC plus season in double A at age 24, Collins was selected by the Brewers in the minor league phase of the 2022 rule 5 draft, meaning they basically paid the Rockies $24,000 to place Collins in their minor league system. At first, I was excited, like, hey, they want me. They spent money to get me. It’s a new opportunity, a fresh start. But there was also a side of me that was like, am I just here for depth as just a backup in double A? The 2025 Brewers roster is filled with stories like these, and it’s representative of the third principle behind this team’s success, roster construction. This team currently has 19 players who’ve produced at least one B-W war or F- War in 2025. Here’s a breakdown of how they were acquired. Five players through the draft. Five players who were acquired via trade after they made their big league debuts. Four players who were acquired via trade while they were still prospects. Two players through international amateur free agency. Two players through big league free agency. And finally, Isaac Collins through the rule five draft. Overall, this illustrates the Brewers ability to identify talent across all avenues, a factor behind their willingness to trade valuable players ahead of free agency, such as Corbin Burns, Devin Williams, and Josh her. We sometimes joke about dumpster diving here in a way that is actually a lot of fun. General manager Matt Arnold said, “We have a lot of guys that have been overlooked for a lot of years, and you always have to try to find value in those spots. I think it shows up all over our roster. In a 2025 poll by The Athletic conducted on 40 MLB executives and coaches, the Brewers were ranked as MLB’s third best front office behind the Dodgers and Rays. A result that makes sense given their ability to uncover hidden gems, but also considering the tight monetary restraints they’re working with. Since 2018, the Brewers have continuously ranked in the bottom half of the league in opening day payroll. So given their reluctance to spend on players outside some carefully crafted extensions, what do the Brewers do differently that allows them to continuously remain in playoff contention? Well, their contact oriented offense alludes to a more traditional, perhaps even anti-analytical front office, but in reality, it’s the contrary. Before exploring this idea, let’s establish what analytics and saber metrics actually are. Sabermetrics is the study of baseball using statistics. That’s it. Advanced metrics are often attributed as the sole statistics behind sabermetrics. But as concisely stated by former big leaguer Robert Stock, Sabermetrics, or analytics is simply using the information at your disposal to determine how to best win a baseball game. Since the Moneyball A’s opened Pandora’s box over two decades ago, teams have gained a clearer understanding on how to best apply this information in terms of efficiency. In modern baseball, it’s through a power focused offense and a strikeout focused pitching staff. However, considering how much value is placed on these skills, these strategies aren’t exactly costefficient. Focusing on offense, among the top 10 leaders in slugging percentage, only two teams possess a luxury tax payroll in the league’s bottom half. The Tigers and the Athletics. In short, power is expensive. So, the small market brewers must think outside the box. As Fangraphs Michael Bowman put it, smart teams can gain an advantage by identifying classes of players whom contemporary analysis underrates. For the Moneyball A’s, it was players who got on base, mostly through walks. For the modern Brewers, it’s speedy contact hitters who ideally play multiple positions. An archetype of player that became more valuable following 2023 rule changes that created a new emphasis for speed and defense. Players such as Bryce Terra, Isaac Collins, Joey Ortiz, Caleb Durban, Andrew Monisterio, and Sal Freelick. None of these guys are powerfocused hitters, but they provide immense value for the Brewers. Simultaneously, the Brewers haven’t neglected the efficiency of power. Christian Yelich, Jackson Curio, Reese Hoskins, and William Contrarus are all examples of this. However, this team has proven that outside of efficiency, analytics can be used to find value in areas where others aren’t looking. Like the Moneyball A’s, the Brewers have identified that class of player. It’s an approach that’s clearly working as they’re on track to qualify for their seventh postseason in 8 years thanks to their best WRC Plus and OPS+ in this span. However, unlike the movie Moneyball, I won’t be omitting a very significant factor behind this team’s success, the fourth principle, their pitching staff. Since 2018, this pitching staff has remained consistently above average according to ERA Plus, and the 2025 is no exception, as they currently rank fourth leaguewide. Now, unlike their offensive counterparts, this pitching staff thrives off efficiency, specifically strikeouts. From staff ace Freddy Peralta to a resurgent Brandon Woodruff coming off a year-long injury to rookie all-star Jacob Miserowski to an unexpected key contributor in Chad Patrick to a bullpen filled with absolute strikeout machines. All in all, this pitching staff exemplifies modern efficiency, a direct result of this organization’s elite player development system. Take someone like Quinn Pester. Dealing with a multitude of injuries, the Brewers traded for the 2019 first round pick who failed to make the Red Sox opening day roster. Not known for overpowering stuff, the team instructed Prister to induce more ground balls with his sinker. In addition, he’s heavily increased his cutter usage, ditched his force, and has nearly abandoned his change up altogether. Some drastic changes, but it’s worked. Success stories like Priestster, Trevor McIll, Chad Patrick, and Jared Kanig exemplify this team’s ability to unlock high upside pitching talent. It’s like they’re crafting these pitchers in a lab that’s designed to churn out as many strikeout throwers as possible. Well, what if I were to tell you that place exists? [Music] This is the Milwaukee Brewer Spring Training Facility in Phoenix, Arizona. Somewhere buried in the confines of this extensive facility lies a room known as the lab. An area that’s off limits to reporters, it’s here where the Brewers craft their pictures from scratch. Utilizing unique, proprietary techniques capable of transforming even unsuspecting bystanders into all-star pitchers. The Brewers do great at just finding a random guy, putting him in the pitching lab, and then boom, Devin Williams. Well, okay, I’m exaggerating a bit, but utilizing the cuttingedge technology in this lab, pitchers not only tinker with their pitch design, but provide the team with insight regarding mechanics. As written by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinels Curt Hog, while it’s unclear how many other teams have similar technology, the common refrain from Brewers who have spent time with other organizations is that none of them replicated the complete pitching lab experience that the Brewers do. Now, there’s one more lab I have to mention. A place hidden so deep within the Brewers training facilities that some question its existence. Of course, I’m talking about the Brewer’s catching lab. So, what is this catching lab? Well, it’s not an actual lab. Rather, a representation of the Brewer’s ability to revitalize a catcher’s defensive abilities. Most notably with William Contreras, who immediately following his arrival from Atlanta evolved from a well below average defensive backs stop to above average in terms of fielding run value. And this leads us to the fifth principle, defense. Until 2023, the Brewers defensive output mostly hovered around league average. Since 2023, as the result of roster construction and coaching emphasis, their defense has been elite. Defense and base running are attitudinal. Taking pride in your defense, and taking pride in your base running is a prerequisite to playing here. Since this team’s rock bottom in miday, the Brewers have soared into contending status thanks to an established five layer foundation. And with these five principles harmoniously working together, the Brewers have created magic. Deep left center field, it is gone. This team is unreal. First pitch is by third. Reds win and they break the Brewers longest ever in season winning streak. But the ultimate question is, will this all be enough to win a World Series title? Can it work in the postseason, man? No, I I don’t think it can. No, no, no. All right, quick talk for you. So, the last 20 teams to make the World Series, just one of them had a barrel rate in the bottom five of the league. That was the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2023. But nobody else. And the Brewers have the lowest barrel rate in Major League Baseball this season. When you out homer teams in the playoffs, you win. When you don’t, more often than not, you end up losing. Potential Cubs rivalry bias aside, it’s clear that regular season barrel rate and slugging in general has a correlation to postseason success. With this in mind, it’s also important to note that few teams this century have mastered the art of contact, speed, and patience like the 2025 Brewers. Here’s a baseline projection of where I expect the Brewers to finish the season. A batting average over 250, less than 200 home runs, more than 150 stolen bases, an OPS plus over 100, and at least five runs scored per game, which currently places them top three leaguewide. According to Statad, since 2000, only three teams have produced this baseline of stats. But when you add pitching into the mix, the only team who really compares to the 2025 Brewers is the 2001 Mariners, the sole playoff team in this group, but also a team stained by their postseason failure. All in all, the mastery the Brewers possess of their offensive philosophies can’t be understated. However, within an environment where efficiency rules all, their margin for error will be smaller than other teams. Right field reeling back at the wall out of here and the Mets have the lead. [Applause] Although at the end of the day, the Brewers are playing for more than simply proving the viability of their team philosophies. Please join us in a moment of silence. for the legendary Bob Uker. On January 16th, 2025, Bob Uker passed away at the age of 90. A legendary broadcaster whose voice spans across five decades of Milwaukee Brewers baseball. Known by the moniker of Mr. Baseball, even as his fame grew beyond the diamond, the broadcast booth was forever his home. returning on October 3rd, 2024 to call game three of the NLDS. Big come from behind win for New York after trailing since the seventh, New York 4 and Milwaukee 2. So long everybody from American Family Field here in Milwaukee. Following this defeat, Uker consoled an emotional clubhouse with his usual charm and humor. But for many around the team, there was an underlying belief that this would ultimately be Uker’s final game. You know, all the other stuff is, you know, it is what it is. It’s a it’s a tough way for your uh your season to end, but you know, talking to uh talking to Yuki, you know, one-on-one was tough. Christian Yelich said after their 2024 elimination that the toughest part of the night was talking to Uker because he knew how much Uker wanted to see the Brewers win the World Series. Today, following his passing, the completion of Uker’s dream is a driving force behind this team. And he drills it in the air deep into right center field. He’s admiring it as it goes back towards the wall and it is gone. The honorary sixth principal, uker magic. Obviously, it’s 100% true that it’s the players who are the ones on the field, but it’s good to have someone in your corner upstairs. It’s been over four decades since the Brewers competed in a World Series. However, between their unique offense, pitching depth, elite defense, and the culture of togetherness, and relentlessness, all deriving from a cohesive player development system, this is arguably the best chance the Brewers have ever had to win a World Series title. Time will tell whether they complete their story, but at the very least, in a baseball world where efficiency is king, the 2025 Brewers stand out above the rest in a unique way. And as an outsider myself, it’s quite remarkable to watch. 81 wins, best record in the majors. These guys are something special.

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