Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres (09-12-25) MLB Game Predictions, Picks and Best Bets

[Music] One that might make us a little bit sad here. 955 956. We’ve got Tanner Gordon in the Rockies at plus 218. JP Sears and the Fathers at – 255. Total of 8 and a half flat across the board at minus 110. All right, BDub. Uh, look, the Rockies are real bad. We know what’s on the line here for the show. We have uh we’ve gone over it at Nauseium, but I got to say I I’m averse to taking JP Sears at minus 255. Now, do I think the Padres’s are probably going to win? Of course, they probably are. The Rockies stink. But how comfortable are we taking a guy like JP Sears, who is just a middling mediocre at best lefty that came over uh at the trade deadline. Are we comfortable taking JP series minus 255 or might this be an opportunity to maybe take a Rocky’s first five or Rocky’s full game? What do you think your beat up? Yeah. Well, the way I have it modeled is I think that San Diego’s overpriced here. They’re they’re in there at minus 270 in market as Corby would say. I haven’t priced minus 186. The one thing that I will caution people is I don’t think as as as an introspective guy and somebody who likes to analyze their own modeling. Uh I don’t think I’m I’m I’m adjusting the splits enough for this Rocky team. If you look the since June 1st and this is an interesting comparison. I’m going to talk about this on the on the Dodgers and and Giants game because it was fascinating to me. But if you look at the Rockies, uh, and I’m using ISO power walk percentage and strikeout percentage to to create a a runs number and the Rockies at home are actually this this takes into account Kors Field. So it adjusts for the park factor. They are 3% better than average uh at home, but on the road they are 28% worse than average. So there’s something there. And I I I I wish I could I because if you look at the last 10 years, you know, just playing the against the Rockies on the road would net you some money. And I mean sometimes you you you go into depth and you spend, you know, all your life reinventing the wheel and you look back at something and say, “Damn, if I just would have played the Rockies against the Rockies on the road, that would have been all it takes.” And you know, you’re sitting on the golf course going to the strip clubs on a in a penthouse up in Las Vegas all just playing against the Rockies. So, you have that going going against you. Uh, but the model shows a little bit of value uh with the Rockies. I I think for me, I’m just going to watch it as a fan because I don’t, you know, I almost want the Rockies to to lose by a lot. I I’m looking forward to like a a guy’s week with an RV. I’ve never met Corby and I’ve I don’t think I’ve met any of you guys. As a matter of fact, I haven’t met you, Kyle. I feel like I I know you for for, you know, for life, but I’ve never met you in person. So, that would be fun. Uh but for for me, I’m I’m going to stay out of this game from a money standpoint. Yeah. Well, I feel like that’s happening pretty soon on this van trip here. Uh Corby, we’re going to be having something going. Uh the Rockies need to win like seven to one today. This would be the Am I crazy thinking this would be, especially against a team like the Padres’s when you’re facing a JP Sears. Uh he’s not very good. Maybe maybe there’s some hope for the Rockies today. What do you think? Um no on the other screen. So, so I have I have on this screen I have us and then on this screen I have RVs for rent in uh Phoenix. So, um yeah, looking it up, you know, there’s some nice ones. So, I’m excited for that. But no, um listen, the Rockies this week have played what, six games? They have 18 hits, three hits a game. So, somehow this just show, which is the Rockies, has gotten worse. Um, and so then the question becomes, okay, if the Rockies aren’t going to hit to to win a double result, you’re going to have to have one thing, the other team score runs. Look at the Padres’s lineup. That is 1, two, three, four, five, six, seven people over a 275 expected batting average per baseball soant, which would put them in the top 10%. Take a look at the pitcher they’re facing. Tanner Gordon has a slow fast ball, doesn’t really have any spin rate, a 312 expected batting average, 17% strikeout rate. So, nothing to nothing get me too excited about. The best news for I guess worst news for our RV bet is this is says it Petco like runs aren’t they’re they’re going to be suppressed so this isn’t going to be some I say that we’ll see um this shouldn’t be some kind of like 16 to1 game this should be like a 40 um but either way I get a win with a double result Padres’s double result um the price is interesting it’s either plus 103 or minus 110 one or the other both of them are plenty fine what are chances we come in here on Monday. So, they play a three-game set. It’s Padres’s all weekend, tomorrow and Sunday. What are the chances we come in here and this is already at 400 by Monday? It would be tough just because it’s a PCO. Um, but it’s definitely doable at the current rate of scoring zero runs per game. The thing is like to to have a decent run differential, you have to score runs. Um, and the Rockies just don’t they just don’t know how to do that. What do you think, Bub? What are the chances this is there on Monday? Yeah, I don’t I think that that’s gonna I think we’re I think I’m biking. I think we’re going to have a a week uh of of bonding show bonding in in November. But, you know, I wanted to bring this out because I I off the top of my head, I said, well, you could retire and live in a penthouse in Vegas with three models, not not base winner models, like three actual like models. Uh if you just bet against the which would be okay. Uh uh if you bet against the Rockies on the road and and that’s true. I mean if you just look at their their their record, this is since 2016 includes 2016 277 and 476 return on investment. You don’t see this in sports betting a lot because of the juice. Return on investment 1.3%. But what what what what really is is better, talk about not only could you live in a penthouse in Vegas, you could also have a penthouse in Dubai, maybe London, San Francisco, wherever you want. You could have models in each one if you just if you just bet the under in those Rockies games. Uh the under is uh uh 394 unders, 328 overs, but a return on investment of 4.2%. Well, think about how com, you know, if you compound the bet the bet the bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet bet hell you’re you’re independently wealthy just bet just betting Rockies and retroactive handicapping is great but you’re you’re you’re independently wealthy just betting those Rockies away games and it might be because guys who who are are very good at handicapping baseball I’d like to think I am just don’t h just don’t have the splits uh calculated the in the best way when the Rockies go on the road and so so that I’m done talking about the Rockies and and and models and pen houses. I excited. Uh there you see the journey that uh we’re all going to be on very very soon. BDub is getting luckily BDubz’s cardios it’s it’s fit for the challenge. If this was me having to do it, we would need an ambulance. We’d need firemen on site. We’d need uh paramedics. Whatever you need. Admittedly, I’ve never done an ebike. I’m going to do that uh when I when I go out to Ohhigh this at the for my anniversary trip. But I’ve never done one. So I I don’t know. Corby, have you done an ebike? Yeah, you just pedal and it basically has a motor. So like it makes every pedal 3x, you know? It’s it’s just making it a little easier. Very interesting. I think people also I think people in the chat thought that I meant like um the scooters that you get like when you’re at like um like a downtown city. No, like just having that won’t make a cuz we’re going uphill, right? This is going to be an uphill journey right into the Rocky Mountains, correct? So, I’m assuming I don’t think one of those little scooters on like a little bird scooter for 400. What is the ele is it elevation gain? I would think it would. I’d be with you, right? Going into Colorado. I’m assuming uh because Arizona’s pretty flat down there, you know. I’m assuming uh it’s going uphill. Again, that’s reckless speculation. I have absolutely no idea, but that’s just my uh assumption there. Again, purposes of the show, we’re locking in Padres’s double result for Corby, and that is priced at plus 103. Did I get that right? Plus 103 for the double result for the Padres’s today. Before we move on, our chat play of the day poll is ready. You got three options here. Dodgers run line at plus 110. Yankees run line plus 130. And how about this? Bdub, a double result. Cubs first five Rays full game at 14 to one. The chat’s trying to hit a home run. Uh, I love that. So get out there and vote for what you want to be in the chat play of the day. All right. [Music] [Music]

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres MLB game predictions for September 12th, 2025.

Our betting experts preview the MLB game between Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres. They’ll go over the latest MLB betting trends and best value baseball odds available for their betting predictions and will share their MLB expert predictions, picks and best bets.

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