If we go 0-4, he's most likely still our coach. Barring blowouts, mutiny, etc., not getting a W in the first four games only has him at a 10% chance of getting fired.

If we're 2-6 after week eight, those odds jump to 25%.

And if we end 4-13 (or worse), there's a 67% chance he's fired.

Obviously, data is a fickle mistress. This decision is at the whim of the Titans' brass, who have greater insights into the situation than we fans ever will, so these odds are not a hill I would die on.

Interesting, nonetheless.

17 comments

  1. Yeah I think that our priority list right now is 1. Help Cam 2. Win games and I don’t think firing Callahan and letting Dennard/Bones take over helps Cam develop so I am pro letting him finish out the season, barring a full locker room revolt.

  4. He’s, at minimum, safe through the next two games (No one has ever been fired in-season until after the 4th game). Once Week 4 passes, provided we’re 0-4, firing hits the table. A loss to Vrabel to drop us down to 0-7 is a guaranteed firing. Finishing the season with 4 wins is a guaranteed firing, taking last year into account.

  5. My main issue is that our roster is absolute doo-doo. It’s pretty obvious our OL, WRs, and pass rush are all awful. Which means we’re stuck bringing in another Callahan quality coach.

    The only advantage we have over the last hiring cycle is that Ward looks legit. That’s a big factor, but probably not enough to overcome no one that can block, no one that can catch, and no one that can impact opposing teams QBs even a little bit.

    I also think timing is a big concern. New head coach would generate a lot of hype for the new stadium, and it wouldn’t make sense to fire Callahan, hire another bum, fire said bum, then hire a new guy. If she’s anything like her Dad, Amy’s too cheap for that.

    I think barring an outright mutiny in the locker room, he keeps his job and gets put down sometime next year.

  6. I just wanna tank hard and keep rebuilding in the draft. I’m a tank believer now I’m sorry this current roster just isn’t there yet.

  7. I think he gets the axe after the Patriots game next month if we get embarrassed in that one and are sitting at two wins or less. Amy doesn’t like losing revenge games.

  8. I don’t think data can capture the emotional carnage if Vrabel comes into Nissan and rolls this team to 0-7 or 1-6

  10. Does it factor the owners weighted value for emotional attachment to feeling embarrassed by Houston? If we lose to Vrabel at home, surely that should add more value to it lol

  13. I’ll be honest, If I was Amy i’d nip this in the bud by saying “I will not consider staffing changes until the end of the season” period.

    My reasoning… If Brian sucks as a coach, good. His ineptitude will guarantee we get the best draft pick possible which can be used to tempt his replacement with a pick of their choice as well as showing that we as an organization will give you a fair shake and WON’T make emotionally charged decisions just because you have “one bad game”.

    If Brian is good and rights the ship, good. He has finally learned how to be a good HC and we should be happy we gave him enough time to prove his merit instead of making a rash decision.

  15. Someone let me know, I’m a laymen when it comes to contracts. Hypothetically speaking if Amy did let Callahan go this year, would she be paying both Vrabel and Callahan still?

  16. Realistically, the franchise did what it does best and fucked up by not firing Callahan at the end of last year when we knew we had the 1OA. Now Cam gets to spend his rookie year with an almost certainly lame duck coach.

    I’m really not a fan of firing a GM and keeping his coach around, even if Callahan wasn’t setup for success. Even when it comes to cleaning house, this organization half asses it.

  17. Callahan has been bad but this is a bad roster. If you fire another coach how do you convince any coach that has other options to come here, with a bad roster and short leash.

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