Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Predictions Today | Best MLB Picks For 9/16/25

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Predictions Today | Best MLB Picks For 9/16/25

Okay guys, Adam Trigger here. It is Tuesday and it is time for another Major League Baseball free pick right here on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. It’s also $5 Tuesday all day long on the Wager Talk site. Uh I’ve got plays up for $5. All the handicappers have plays up for $5. Uh I have a college football best bet that is currently up for five bucks. The one I gave out on Tuesday last week for $5 was the Miami Hurricanes who covered the 17 with ease. They won that game huge and I hope we have another one of those this week. Today we’re going to talk more bases. Um, Guardians Twins. So, free pick yesterday was an underdog selection that lost. We’re going with a dog again here today. Hopefully, uh, you know, if we can win this one and get a split, both plays were plus money, we’ll be a little bit ahead on the free pick selections for the week. Uh, so you’re looking at Guardians here plus 125. And the reason that I’m looking to the Guardians, while they are playing great baseball, while they do need to win, is more of a fade of the Tigers. And it’s not because I think the Tigers are not a good baseball team. I think the Tigers are a great baseball team. I think the Tigers are going to be in the mix in the American League to potentially be in the World Series. But right now, the Tigers are exactly what I said they would be three weeks ago or two and a half weeks ago. Uh, at this point in September, which is like pretty much a 500 team. Uh, you know, they have had this central division wrapped up since like the end of August. So, I suspected, and if you watch total bases, we’ve we’ve talked about this extensively. I kind of expected that the Tigers would approach September almost as a try out of sorts for the 40man roster and maybe some call-ups to see who’s going to make that uh 20 whatever it is 28 man 27 28 man playoff roster and I figured that they that AJ Hinch would manage accordingly spread the innings around for the pitchers spread the playing time around and that this team would probably play close to 500 ball and that’s essentially what they’ve done last 10 games five and five. I just don’t think the emphasis right now on the for the Tigers is on winning on that given day. I think it’s more almost like AAA where it’s be it’s become far more developmental. Let’s spread the innings around. Let’s make sure everyone’s getting at bats. Can we put pitchers in position to fail like you know guys that are maybe they’re given a look at to make a postseason roster. Let’s put them out in a high lever spot. see if they see if they come through or not, right? Like it’s okay if they fail because these games are meaningless. We’ve got a six and a half game lead on the division with a couple weeks to go. Uh now granted, I think you could, you know, you could make the counter argument that maybe the Tigers do care about this series a little bit more because the team that they are that they have the six and a half game lead on is the Guardians. But again, I just I’m not even saying the Tigers are going to get swept here. They’re absolutely not. I’m saying that they’re probably not going to sweep the Guardians at home. And you know that that Cleveland is likely to get at least one in this series and that if they do that the Tigers are perfectly fine with that because even if they were to get swept, still nine games to go, the Guardians would still have to make up like four games to win the division. It’s just unlikely to happen. So, I don’t think that the the Tigers are changing their approach here at all. And I also have no issues playing against Casey M. um he’s just not a he got off to a really hot start this year, but you know, 3.83 RA, 1.27 whip, he’s had a really nice season when you look at the surface numbers. Uh but when you look under the hood, pitch and run values in the bottom 20% of of Major League Baseball as rated by Statcast Baseball Savant and um you know, lot of lot of just very average metrics, not getting a ton of of swing and miss, doesn’t strike many guys out. uh hard hit rate is in the bottom 30%. It’s a lot of fast balls and again I just don’t think he is a he he’s just he’s a he’s a very average big league pitcher at this point. I’m not seeing the massive upside for him. I think he’s been consistent. I think he’s been able to remake himself into a pretty productive starter that’s able to go out there every fifth day. But I mean this is a guy that has battled injury. Remember, he was in 2018. He was the first overall pick in the draft. First round, number one pick. I don’t think he’ll ever be that. I think he’s a productive starter, but he just doesn’t have the upside. Let that say someone like Joey Kantio has right now who was a 16th rounder. nothing was expected of him, but he’s sort of been able to, you know, tweak some things and remake himself in the Guardians uh system as a guy that I think has a ton of upside relative to where he’s priced in the market. So, you know, he’s really a three- pitch pitcher, fast ball, change up curve. He went down to Columbus earlier this year and they decided, you know what, we need starting pitching right now. Um we’re let’s let’s try to stretch him back out. He he was sort of working out of the bullpen as a lefty. Can be sort of a lefty specialist at times, but the Guardians said, “Hey, we need another starting pitcher. Obviously Shane Bieber is someone that they they traded. Uh they haven’t had a ton of starting pitching depth.” And they said, “Joey Kantio, we need you to become that guy. Let’s see if let’s see how it works out of Triple A.” Well, it’s worked very it’s worked well in my opinion so far. Um he’s only made 10 starts, but 31 appearances. He’s got 92 strikeouts and 80 and 80.1 innings pitched at the big league level. Uh 3.36 RA, a 1.31 whip, and he is getting a ton of swing and miss in the zone. That is something that is, you know, that that’s something that’s a metric I really do like to see. um his chase rate’s not great and I think it’s a it’s still he’s got to work on there’s still a lot of non-competitive pitches with with Kantio and that’s something that I think this year into next year it will be a a sticking point because he’s not getting a ton of swing and miss because when he throws out of the zone or when he throws that curveball down um it’s just not the hitters are are picking up on it pretty quickly in terms of being able to identify it’s going to be a ball and then they they’ll take that pitch. It’s why he It’s why he walks batters and it’s why he doesn’t get a ton of of chase, but he is getting plenty of swing and miss on pitches in the strike zone. And that is a great sign when you can throw your four seamer in the zone for a strike and you’re also getting batters to swing and miss. It means it’s m he’s mixing that change up in incredibly well. Uh that’s 75% of Kantio’s pitches are fast ball change. He’s got a great differential. So he’s look he’s sitting around 92 on the fast ball. That change up comes in basically 77 78 looks very similar and hitters have had a hard time with it have had a hard time picking it up. So uh Kantio someone that I think if he can really sort of figure out that third pitch that curveball uh is going to be very very tough and you’ve already started to see it a little bit uh as this season has progressed. So Joey Kantio, someone that I think has upside, someone that I think when his when he’s on could shut down a Tigers lineup, um that you know who who knows if they put their optimal lineup out here. I still think it’s about getting certain guys, you know, reps and at bats and and stuff like that. So, if you’re going to get me the Guardians, a team that’s nine and one over their last 10 games, uh, a team that is is right now right back in the thick of the wildard race, just three games back and absolutely needs this game, they’re going to manage their bullpen accordingly against a team in the Tigers that’s really just kind of going out, spreading the innings around, getting nine innings in. Yeah, they’d like to win the game, of course, but it’s not do or die for them. Uh, I think right now you’ve got to ride the Guardians. Four straight wins and that’s a team that I I would probably play until they lose one. Um, and hopefully you’ve been I think we talked about them last week. I know Brian Leonard pointed this out on our show last week with the Guardians. Um, if you’ve been riding them this whole time, I’d go right back to them here. If you’re looking for a good value bet, um I think Guardians plus 125 is the value based on the fact that this Tigers team is likely to play out the rest of the regular season as a 500 team and you’re getting plus money. So, let’s go Guardians plus 125 for today’s free pick. And if you’re looking for all of my picks today, they’re all going to be on my page for $5 as part of $5 Tuesday. Check that out at the link below. Uh, I’ve already got a college football play up and I will be adding baseball as well. Every pick that’s on the page today will be $5 until midnight tonight. So, check that out. Check out Total Bases every morning on the Wager Talk YouTube channel, 9:00 am Eastern. And I will see you guys in the morning for more Total Bases. We’ll see you here tomorrow for more free picks. Have a great day, everyone. Cash all your tickets and we’ll see you guys in the

If you are looking for MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers matchup, we have you covered! Our MLB handicapping experts discuss the spread and total from a sports betting perspective, sharing their picks and predictions vs the current odds.

#mlbpicks #mlbpredictions #mlbpickstoday

⚾ Guardians vs Tigers • MLB Betting Preview • September 16, 2025

⏱ First Pitch & Venue

First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET (Detroit time)
Venue: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan — home of the Tigers.

📺 How to Watch & Stream

TV Broadcast: FDSDET for Detroit viewers, and CLEG for Cleveland viewers.

Streaming / Online: Available on MLB.TV. Also, Tigers Radio Network will carry the radio broadcast.
Bless You Boys

🔢 Betting Snapshot: Spread & Total

Moneyline Odds: Detroit Tigers are modest favorites around −142, while Cleveland Guardians are underdogs at about +119.

Run Line (Spread): Tigers −1.5; Guardians +1.5 in typical books.
Total Runs (Over/Under): Set at 8 runs.

🐦 Team Twitter Hashtags

Cleveland Guardians: #Guardians
Detroit Tigers: #Tigers

🔍 Interesting Facts & Context

Pitching Matchup: Right-hander Casey Mize (14-5, ~3.83 ERA) will start for Detroit; left-hander Joey Cantillo (5-3, ~3.36 ERA) for Cleveland.

Standings Implications: The Tigers are in a strong position in the AL Central with around 85-65 record, while the Guardians (78-71) are trying to stay competitive for postseason contention. This series is pivotal late in the season.

Recent Trends: Over/Unders in recent Cleveland games have trended toward fewer total runs. Also, Detroit has a strong performance record at home in games where they are small favorites.

👍 Make sure to SUBSCRIBE to WagerTalk TV; 🔔 CLICK the Bell and never miss an episode!

⚾️ More Free MLB Picks: https://www.wagertalk.com/free-sports-picks/MLB
🤑 Free Sports Picks: https://www.wagertalk.com/free-sports-picks
📊 Live Odds: https://www.wagertalk.com/odds
🗞️ News: https://www.wagertalk.com/news

👍 Stay connected with WagerTalk

📺 YouTube: https://wt.buzz/tv
👍 Facebook: https://wt.buzz/fb
🐦 Twitter: https://wt.buzz/tw
📸 Instagram: https://wt.buzz/ig
📰 Reddit: https://wt.buzz/rd
❤️ iHeart Radio: https://wt.buzz/iheart
🍎 Apple Podcasts: https://wt.buzz/ap
📌 Pinterest: https://wt.buzz/pin