With 6 to play, practical entry paths look like:
• Giants go 6–0 → finish 83–79.
Then you likely need just one of Mets/Reds to finish ≤3–3 (ending ≤83 wins) and finish ahead of D-backs (they’d need to be ≤3–3 too). Tiebreakers could still matter.
• Giants go 5–1 → finish 82–80.
Then you must pass two of the trio (Mets, Reds, D-backs):
• Mets (80–76) must go ≤1–5 (≤81 wins).
• Reds (80–76) must go ≤1–5 (≤81 wins).
• D-backs (79–77) must go ≤2–4 (≤81 wins).

Anything worse than 5–1 is almost certainly not enough.

Without running a full opponent-adjusted sim, if we (roughly) multiply a 5–1 Giants surge by one ≤1–5 collapse (Mets or Reds) and a ≤2–4 slide (D-backs), you get on the order of ~0.4%–2% depending on overlap, tiebreakers, and who plays whom. A 6–0 Giants run raises it a bit, but it’s still a long-shot. That lines up with FanGraphs’ low single-digit odds today.

Let’s go! We got this!

18 comments

  1. Aren’t our chances literally like .2 percent? I mean, hey miracles can happen, but ima just enjoy watching Bryce and hope willy gets 2 more homers

  2. Dbacks have the Padres and dodgers, Mets have the marlins and cubs, Reds have Pirates and Brewers

    Let’s do it, gotta win em all 😂😎

  4. I’m of the mindset that making the playoffs at this point would be counterproductive.

    Then BoMel def comes back

    Then pieces which sucked for huge swaths of the season are more locked in for next year when they shouldn’t be

    Then maybe they try and cheap out on restocking the pen

    Give me six good games to end it, have Adames hit his 30th and call it

  9. Yeah no, at this point I’m rooting for the commies. Since seeing the Mets fail after acquiring Juan Soto is just funny in this timeline

  10. > Giants go 6–0 → finish 83–79

    This does not compute, as clearly we must finish at 81-81.

    And Willy will finish with 29 dingers.

  11. Even if we make it, with the shape the pitching is currently in and how hot/cold the offense is, we will be bounced in the first round.

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