Ken Rosenthal: Which Collapse Is Worse — New York Mets or Detroit Tigers?

The question I posed in my column today, which would be more embarrassing, the Tigers blowing a 15.5game lead to a division opponent, that would be the Cleveland Guardians, or the Mets missing the playoffs entirely with a $340 million payroll. Now, the column is an exploration of which is more embarrassing and kind of discusses each team’s predicament, but the Mets thing is stunning to say the least. They were 45 and 24 on June 12th. They had a 2.79 rotation RA on June 12th. That was the best in the majors. The record was the best in the majors. Since then, the Mets are 35 and 30 and 53. 35 and 53. That is tied with the Chicago White Socks for the fourth worst record in the majors. Their rotation RA also ranks in the bottom five. They have essentially collapsed and not like they did in 2007 when they lost seven when they blew a seven-game lead with 17 to play. This has been a slow burn. It’s really been three months now of inadequate play. So the Reds are not exactly a team sprinting to the finish, though they’ve won 10 of their last 15. It’s a team that’s basically a sub 500 club since early August, but they’ve won 10 of their last 15. The Mets have gone 4 and 11, including losing two of three to the Nationals this week. And you see where the wild card standings are right now. Diamondbacks just one game back. The Reds hold the tiebreaker over the Mets. So, as we say at this time of year, the Reds effectively control their own destiny. Of course, these things can change. And we might as well look at the remaining schedules as well because they will be telling for, of course, all of these teams. The Reds are in a decent spot, as I wrote today. Three versus Pittsburgh at home and then three at Milwaukee in a time when Milwaukee probably will be really close to clinching the best overall record in the number one seed if they haven’t done it already by then. They’ve got a three-game lead over the Phillies in that race. The Mets, three at the Cubs, three at the Marlins, who they only lead by four games right now, by the way. And the Diamondbacks, who have had a trying schedule, the most trying schedule of all these teams from the beginning, they host the Dodgers for three and then they’re at San Diego for three. San Diego by that point should have clinched and we’ll see what the Dodgers come up with this week as well. So, the NL Wild Card race, as I’ve written, it is brought to you by the New York Mets. The only reason all of this has happened is because the Mets have stumbled in a way that no one anticipated. And it’s a stumble that will be one of the more embarrassing episodes in franchise history if it indeed ends up with this team obviously missing the playoffs if it ends up with this team getting knocked out early. The Mets are not simply in a good place. Now the AL Central, this is the other question I had or the part of the question that I had. The Tigers, where are the Tigers on the embarrassment scale? Pretty high I would suggest. Now, they still are in a position where they have a one-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians, but they’re coming off an 0 and6 home stand against Cleveland and Atlanta. They’re 26 and 37 since July 8th. These three games against Cleveland at Progressive Field will obviously be critical. And you just wonder if the Tigers are going to be able to snap out of it. Their pitching, their rotation and bullpen has essentially fallen apart in September. And their offense has not been very good in this long stretch as well. And here are the Guardians. One of the worst offensive contenders you’ll ever see. What I mean by that is they’ve got one of the worst offenses for a contender you’ll ever see. They are tied for 27th in the majors in runs per game. 27th. And as I wrote, there are only three teams in major league history, and actually this goes to the start of the divisional play era, that have made the playoffs with an offense that bad. And two of those teams, two of the three did it in the 2020 season when there were 16 playoff teams, shortened 60 game season, and all of that. So, it’s almost like that doesn’t even count. So, it’s pretty hard to do what the Guardians are doing with an offense of the nature that they have. But, they’re doing it. the Tigers are letting them back in. So, as I wrote, if the Tigers miss the playoffs after being up on July 8th, they were up 14 games on both the Royals and Twins at that time and 15 and a half on the Guardians. If they miss the playoffs after holding a 14game lead, it will be the largest blown lead by a team that did not win its division or league in modern ALNL history. An all-time collapse. Todd father, you and me grew up in Jersey. We liked to collect cards. But the way the process got was ridiculous. You open up a pack, there’s a bunch of cards you don’t care about, then you want to get certain ones graded. Takes forever, right? Then you want to maybe sell one. It’s such a to-do. Arena Club has been the solution for us. Arena Club has been the solution for everybody. You go online, go to Arena Club, and you check out what they have. Put a little cash down. You might get one of the best cards that you’ve ever seen in your life, an autograph card. And guess what? If you don’t like the card, easily you could sell it back and make a little cash. You never know what to expect. It’s a cool way of doing it. You’re going to get a surprise every time. And if you’re in the cards, this is something you really need to get into. Right now, you can get 20% off your first slab pack or card purchase by going to arena.com/foul and use code foul like Todd Father is talking about with those slab packs. Every pack has a grail. That’s at least 20x the price of the pack.

Ken Rosenthal breaks down MLB’s most shocking late-season storylines: the Tigers risking an all-time collapse after once leading the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central by 15.5 games, and the Mets unraveling with a $340M payroll. We dig into how the Reds, Guardians, and Diamondbacks are capitalizing, why the NL Wild Card race has turned chaotic, and what these stunning falls mean for October.

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20 comments

  9. The 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers had the largest division lead to ever be blown in MLB history. A 13.5 game lead on August 11, 1951. Tigers had a 15.5 game division lead on July 8.

    Tigers had a 10 game division lead on September 3, which would be the largest September division lead ever blown.

    Tigers had a 9.5 game division lead with 16 games to go on September 10, which no team before has come close to blowing such a large lead with relatively so few games left.

    Tigers had a 6.5 game division lead with 12 games to go, matching the division lead blown by the 1964 Phillies, considered by some, to be the biggest end of season collapse in MLB history by which all other collapses are measured. Those Phillies lost 10 in a row before winning their final 2 games of the season.

    If you research this topic, I found the Goog to be wrong about some teams division leads. Like the 1978 Red Sox. Goog says they had a 14 game September lead, which is not close to true. The '78' Red Sox largest division lead was 10 games in July of that year. The 14 game lead referenced by Goog & articles is the lead they had over the Yankees, who were in 4th place, 14 games behind Boston, in mid July 1978. The Yanks coming back to win the division. The Red Sox division lead was down to 6.5 games by the start of September.

  10. The tigers have not collapsed yet. They can save themselves by winning a couple games this week against Cleveland. The astros have collapsed and won’t win the west and maybe not even get into postseason. That’s disgraceful.

  13. The Mets because if they had 85 wins they would be well on their way to a WC spot. That third NL wild card is an absolute joke. While the Tigers collapse is historical, did anyone think they would break 90 wins at the start of the year? They still can break 90. Gotta give some credit to the Guardians here.

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