Cease has been our second best pitcher according to FIP. This metric removes all luck and variables outside the pitchers control. This is an overly simplistic explanation of FIP.

Let’s hope the throws a gem tonight.

29 comments

  2. And with his 32nd start tonight, he’s a workhorse in a year where starting pitching was a revolving door.

  5. He’s at 163 IP. Anything that may have been “luck” early on is now too much of a pattern to just be luck. You can’t just take hits allowed out of a pitcher’s performance and call it more accurate. He’s not our second best pitcher at all.

  6. FIP and xERA are useful to extrapolate from little data to work out if a pitcher should get better or worse. After 95% of the season, we have a large enough sample and ERA is all that matters, or arguably W-L.

  8. It is a little frustrating that the gap between his bWAR last year and this year is the same number of games we’d need to be ahead of the dodgers right now

  10. If you look at stats maybe but if you watch the games you’ll know that’s far from the truth

  13. Randy has been better. 2.5 WAR in 132 inningsvs 0.9 in 163 innings. Randy clears Cease by miles

  14. No. No he isn’t. It’s Vasquez. A whole seasons worth of data will tell you that Vasquez has been the better pitcher despite his underlying statistics pointing the other way.

  15. He’s supposed to be our ace who’s about to be a free agent. I was expecting more from him. I’ll give King a pass because of the injuries.

  16. I don’t necessarily disagree with the conclusion, but I think basing the evaluation *entirely* on FIP is a bad idea. FIP has some definite benefits but it also has some shortcomings, as the things you’re losing by removing balls in play from the calculation differ from pitcher to pitcher.

    Cease has a really high BABIP compared to the other guys, and since the defense is (approximately) the same across our pitchers, that suggests there’s a meaningful difference in his balls in play vs. others. Some of it’s bad luck and small sample sizes, but that’s a big enough difference this late in the season to dismiss it entirely.

  19. Cease has the fifth highest wOBA-xwOBA in baseball (min. 2000 pitches), and highest for a pitcher with an xwOBA under .300. He’s been the unluckiest good pitcher in baseball.

  21. This is where these stats completely lose me. You can say he’s been our 2nd best pitcher but he abso-fucking-lutely has not. These stats are dumb.

  22. FIP does a poor job of explaining Cease this season. He still has swing and miss stuff by completely fooling the batter, but when he doesn’t completely fool them, batters are making more significant contact then in the past.

  25. Underlying stats aren’t everything, he hasn’t been good for the most part, I think we can all agree that he has been disappointing

  27. Sure, but which starting pitcher the 2nd half of the season (does not have to be pitcher of record) had the Padres won the most games they started? Wins are what matter. Stats are great, they have a place to compare generations of players.  I personally, in this order trust the pitching staff: Pivetta, Randy, Yu, Cease and then King. I would even go so far as start Randy in game 2 of the WC after his performance last night. Seems the Padres play a little harder when Randy pitches. Then again, I am just a fan who hates stats outside of WHIP, era and BA. And yes, some players are anomalies in those 3 categories, good and bad. Still a game of throwing the ball, hit the ball and catch the ball. After that, it is just “baseball”. 

  28. Expected stats are a good metric for short periods of time. At the very end of the year the stats are what the stats are. Cease gave up more runs this year, and wasn’t our second best pitcher this year.

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