What’s Going On With The Celtics, Really?

What’s Going On With The Celtics, Really?

The Celtics are maybe the weirdest team heading into next season. Between losing their best player to injury, completely overhauling the roster, and a unique style of play, it’s nearly impossible to predict what they’re going to do. But what can we actually expect from them in 2026? And are they good enough to win a playoff series? Throughout last season, there was little reason to believe they couldn’t do exactly what they did in 2024. Tatum shifted his shot diet a little bit, but was playing arguably his most complete basketball. Jaylen Brown wasn’t quite as efficient shooting the ball, but still provided that muchneeded secondary creation and defensive versatility. Porzingis was battling some injuries and a viral illness. But when he was on the court, he was playing as good as ever. All while Derek White had probably the best season of his career. Most importantly though, when multiple key players missed extensive time, the bench stepped up. Pton Pritchard had a breakout season and won sixth man of the year. Sam Hower started in multiple games and provided muchneeded shooting. and Luke Cornett showed that he could be a legitimate rotation big. As a result, they still ended up with the number two offense and number four defense on their way to 61 wins. It was in the playoffs where things started to go downhill as they lost a second round series against the Knicks in shocking fashion. After sweeping the regular season series 4- nothing with multiple blowout wins, it felt like a foregone conclusion that Boston was sleepwalking to the conference finals only to completely collapse in games one and two on their home floor before getting sent home in six. I want to be clear in saying that some of their playoff issues were a result of external factors. Drew Holiday was battling a hamstring injury and missed a few games. Sam Hower hurt his ankle in game one against the Knicks and missed three straight. Chrisaps Porzingis was barely even a shell of himself while battling that illness and didn’t even average eight points a game. Then of course, Tatum went down with an Achilles injury in the midst of maybe his best performance ever in game four. With all of that said though, I actually think their style of play had the biggest role in their early demise. Over the season, they attempted 48 threes a game, which was about six more than second place. And three-pointers are the most volatile shot in basketball. When they’re falling, they look like the greatest team ever. When they’re not falling, the offense stagnates, sort of falls apart, and they can shoot themselves out of games. And because of that, they relied on luck more than most, if not all of NBA history’s all-time great units. Get hot at the right time, you sleepwalk to a championship. But get cold at the wrong time, and you can lose as a heavy favorite. In game one of the second round, the Celtics went up by 20, more than halfway through the third. From that point on, they proceeded to shoot five of 28 or 18% from three, while the Knicks stormed back to ultimately steal a win in overtime. Then in game two, the Celtics went up by 20 again. This time with less than 3 minutes to go in the third. After that, they shot two of 14 or 14% from three, while the Knicks closed on a 23-6 run to go up two games to nothing. Obviously, it isn’t as simple as two’s good, three is bad. But when half of your shots are coming 25 ft away from the basket, you’re prone to ups and downs. And that’s pretty much been a theme of the Celtics for years. Do things look different with better health? Probably. But now we’re entering a new era of Boston basketball, and it could just end up being more extreme than the last. Along with basketball and content creation, another big passion of mine is the gym. 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That’s code hoopenf50 atfactor75.com for 50% off plus free breakfast for an entire year. Boston’s first move of the offseason was to trade Drew Holiday for Anthony Simons. And what does Simon specialize in? Perimeter shotmaking. Last season, he attempted 8 and 1 half threes a game, good for 10th in the NBA. And while 36% is a pretty solid mark, that requires some context. As Portland’s lead ball handler, he had to self-create about half of his looks, meaning a lot of these threes are coming in tight windows off of screens or after creating separation one-on-one. If we look only at the threes he’s taken off the catch over the last three seasons, he’s made over 39%. Meaning that the Celtics have added yet another highlevel spot-up shooter. He’ll fit right in with Derek White, who made 41% of his catch and shoot threes in the past three seasons, and Sam Hower, who made 42%, and Pton Pritchard, who made 43%. Of course, Boston’s five out offense is meant to maximize the value of these shooters. But the thing about a five out offense is that it’s only effective if there’s somebody who can break down the defense and make the right reads. For years, that guy has been Jason Tatum, and he’s set to miss the entire season. So, the success of the Celtics offense hinges on whether or not Jaylen Brown can take on the responsibility of a lead creator. Some will point to his weaker handle or passing limitations and immediately assume he’s incapable. I think between his overwhelming physical advantages, aggression going downhill, and much improved decision-making, there’s a chance he actually succeeds. Luckily for us, the last few years have provided us with a huge sample size of information to work with. In the last 3 years, Brown played nearly 2300 regular season minutes with Tatum off the court, which is about 48 games worth. And during that time, he had a natural uptick to his scoring and playmaking volume. But what I find really interesting is that his shooting efficiency actually remained the exact same. There could be a few reasons for this, such as the fact that more of these minutes are coming against bench units or that it’s just a smaller sample. However, I think it makes sense because Brown isn’t the type to benefit from the sort of easier opportunities Tatum creates. He doesn’t score many points off of cuts. He isn’t a great spot-up three-point shooter. Most of his offense is self-created regardless, even if there is a little bit less of a defensive focus when he’s sharing the court with another star. What’s even more interesting than the individual numbers is what’s happened to the team. With both of the Jays on the floor together, the Celtics generated a 121 offensive rating. With Tatum as the lone star, 123, and with Brown as the lone star, right back to 121. I’m not saying that the Celtics offense is going to be fine without Tatum. his presence as a 27 to 30 point per game scorer and highle creator will be sorely missed and they’ll no longer be able to stagger the two so the bench minutes could end up looking a little rough. All I’m saying is that Jaylen Brown alongside multiple good shooters could be a recipe for efficient team offense. What I’m not quite as confident in is what the rest of the team will look like with their increased responsibilities. Proud’s going to have the ball a lot more and last season he ranked in the 89th percentile in efficiency as a pick and roll ball handler. So, we’ll have to see if he can maintain that with more reps. The same goes for White. He was in the 83rd percentile, and he might actually end up being Boston’s go-to initiator. I already talked about Simons. He landed in the 76th percentile. Although, I think you could argue that he’s the most dynamic creator of the three, who just found himself in a significantly worse offensive situation. With all of that said, though, it’s worth noting just how much worse their screen and roll partners will be. Because what I haven’t addressed yet is that the Celtics basically lost their entire front court. Horford’s still unsigned. Porzingis is a Hawk and Cornet is a Spur. Those three guys were their primary screeners. And if it wasn’t one of the bigs, it was probably Jason Tatum screening to hunt for a switch. Their replacements, Chris Buché and Luca Garza. In other words, they went from arguably the best pick and pop big in the league, another outside shooting threat, and a 7 foot2 rim runner who can make plays out of the short roll to two undersized bigs who shoot threes at a significantly lesser clip. The best pick and roll big on the team is Namias Kada. And while he can rim run, I wouldn’t say he’s quite as effective as Cornet and certainly not as effective as DeAndre Aton, who Simons was running with on the Blazers. Ultimately, I think that front court will be their downfall. Not only are they limited on offense and potentially incapable of fielding seriously good five-out units, the defense is a complete disaster. Even at age 38, Horford was more than capable of switching across the board, executing tons of different coverages, and unlocking versatility for the Celtics, while Cornet and Porzingis were two of the best rim protectors in the league. Buché has got the length to block shots, but that’s about it. He’s not strong enough to match up with most bigs. He’s not quick enough to match up with most ball handlers, and he really struggles to defend pick and roll. So, he’s someone offenses actively want to put in the primary action. The same goes for Garza, who just simply doesn’t move well enough to keep up with NBA athletes. I don’t think Kade is a liability as he offers somewhat of a vertical presence around the rim through his size and athleticism. But, he can be a bit awkward positionally, which too hurts his ability to defend the primary action, and he too lacks the foot speed to switch. So, none of these guys are really fit to anchor a modern defense at the five. The one front court guy I’m high on defensively is Xavier Tilman, who has that Horfordesque skill set between his ability to switch and execute different coverages, but he’s really limited on offense, so there’s some drawback. And he’s had a long history of knee injuries that have kept them off the court. All that’s to say, defense is a very obvious weak point with the Celtics roster. They lost their two best rim protectors, their most switchable big, and the team’s most versatile defender is out for the entire season. That leaves Derek White and Jaylen Brown to essentially carry the entire unit, and I’d be shocked if they were able to get anywhere near league average. White’s a great defender. His skill set is maximized when he’s around other competent defensive pieces, though. And the same goes for Brown, whose superpower is his ability to guard pretty much every position. But with nobody to switch with, that just leads to mismatches, and he’ll have so much offensive responsibility that he might not even have the energy to defend at the same level. As far as their rotation goes, I’m not sure what to expect. The starting point guard spot can go to either one of Pritchard or Simons. I think Kate gets the nod at the five, but I’d personally prefer Tilman for more of that defensive versatility. They can do a ton of things though with Buchet at the five and Hower at the three. They’d be going all in on five out running and gun. Well, not all in cuz an even funnier scenario is one where Simons gets the start and they run three guards. If Missoula wanted to go all in on size, they could bring both Pritchard and Simons off the bench with White playing the one. But the common theme is that none of these lineups are good on both sides of the ball. Of their top 12 players, I’d estimate that at least eight of them are guys that offenses would actively look to attack in the primary action. And you’ll notice that Jaylen Brown is quite literally the only player who’s a consistent threat to get to the rim. That takes me back to where I started with the over reliance on three-pointers. Buché and Simons both attempted more than half of their shots from behind the ark last year. White and Pritchard were both at about 72% while Hower was at 84%. This is a team that’s going to shoot a lot of threes, and most of these guys are great shooters, so they’re going to make a lot of threes. Like I said, though, there’s so much luck involved in shots that far away from the basket. There’s going to be nights where they look ridiculously good, put up like 130 points, and beat great teams off of three-point shooting. Then there’s going to be nights where they look awful, can’t make a shot, can’t get a stop, and really, whatever side they fall on more will probably be the difference between winning 32 or 42 games. So, I’m going right in the middle. I think they’ll land somewhere in the mid to high30s, maybe cracking 500, but between the disastrous defense and lack of versatility on offense, I’d be shocked to see them win more than one playoff game. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though. They’ve got their first round pick for next season, and a full season of increased responsibility could help guys like Pritchard, White, or even Brown get to another level offensively. Then with the return of Jason Tatum and some retooling of the roster, they could be right back to championship contention in 2027.

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The Boston Celtics are in a weird spot after losing Jayson Tatum and completely overhauling the roster, making them nearly impossible to evaluate for next season.

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