Seahawks vs Cardinals Picks – NFL Week 4 Thursday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Seahawks vs Cardinals Picks – NFL Week 4 Thursday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Yo, what’s up? Welcome back to another episode of the Swiss. We’re into NFL week four. Week three was not my week. Uh, so hopefully week four goes better. Um, was a crazy week in the NFL. Um, we’re getting started with a good division game here. Seattle on the road in Arizona. Let’s do it. I mean, is Cooper Russ two and a half points? I would hope Quinners put up a decent statline against Arizona State. If he didn’t, we have a real problem. You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they have the one good game against Panthers at home. When Toast talks about the kicking market, it’s like some Earth is flat Andy, true or false, this is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it’s going to be very ugly. I think this is going to be ugly. Hey, get this to us. All right, Seattle’s on the road in Arizona. I mean, the line moved from from one to one and a half. It actually opened up with Arizona as short favorites, but in terms of when the limits got to a decent number. Uh it was at one. It moved up to one and a half. So been pretty steady for a few days at the one. It’s at one and a half now mostly. All right, so let’s get into this one. Um Arizona has had problems with this Seattle team. Seven straight losses to their division rivals here. Uh their last win was November 2021. So it’s been a while since the Cardinals got a win against this Seahawks team. and now they’re coming into this one without their running back. James Connor, very important piece of that Cardinals offense the last couple years. Um, there’s also some injury concerns on the offensive line. Now, good news. It looks like Paris Johnson and Evan Brown, they participated in practice, so I would imagine they have a pretty good chance of playing, but we’ll see. You do see some questionable sit out on the short week in the Thursday night game. So, we’ll see. Uh Will will Will Will Hernandez may finally be back from injury, but I’m not sure if he would even start if he was healthy. Uh so we’ll see. I I noticed that they bumped him down. He’s not listed as the starting guard anymore. So even if he’s back, I’m not sure if he would be starting in this game. Uh so yeah, no James Connor. Maybe some injury concerns on the offensive line. Now Seattle’s defense is dealing with injuries also, but it looks like Julian Love and Witherspoon are both going to be back. That’s probably the two best pieces of that Seahawks secondary. Neither of them played in the Saints game. Didn’t matter. That was an absolute route. I had Saints plus seven and a half of that one. Um Leonard Williams and Maf listed as questionable, but both did participate in practice. So, I would imagine we should see the Seahawks defense at full strength here. And right off the bat, we know this is going to be a really tough matchup for the Cardinals offense. This is an offense that wants to run the ball. In fact, the last couple years, this has been one of the most physical rushing attacks in the NFL. That was kind of their whole uh offensive identity last year. Um, not only has the run game been pretty bad so far this year, they’re 30th in success rate per rush, 21st in EPA per rush, but now there’s no James Connor, there’s injury concerns on the offensive line, and this Seahawks defensive front looks rock solid. Um, now maybe we do want to point out that Seattle hasn’t played the toughest of rushing attacks yet. Uh, their first three games were against the 49ers, the Steelers, the Saints. So, not exactly not exactly the gauntlet in terms of tough rushing attacks, but they’re holding opponents to 3.3 yards per carry, under 91 rushing yards per game, 32.8% success rate per rush. And the truth is, they’ve been doing this without even loading the box defensively. So, this Seahawks defensive front looks really strong. and Arizona without James Connor. It’s tough to see them coming in and running the football here. Um, we can point out the fact that Seattle hasn’t seen a dangerous rushing attack, but do we consider the Cardinals to be a dangerous rushing attack right now? In their first three games, they have a 27.7% success rate per rush. That is terrible. So, this Cardinals rushing attack looks nothing like the rushing attack we saw last year. So, I it’s tough to see Arizona running the football in this game. Now, they’re at home. It’s a short week. I’m sure they’re going to stay diligent. you know, they’re going to try to run the ball and you know what? I’m sure they’re able to move the chains here and there. Thursday Night Football, home division game. I’m sure they’re able to run the ball a little bit, but it’s hard to to count on the Cardinals consistently running the ball in this game. It’s looking like if the Cardinals want to have a chance of winning this game, uh they’re going to need Kyler Murray to be excellent. Um he did open up the season with a pretty good game against the Saints. I mean, he didn’t they didn’t really ask him to do much in that game. In fact, 31% of his pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage in that game against the Saints. 31% of his pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage in that opener. But let’s give him some credit. He was efficient. He made good decisions. He played a good game in the opener against the Saints. The last couple games weren’t nearly as impressive. QB rating is down. Uh he was under some pressure. Didn’t really handle the pressure well. Uh so against the Seattle defensive front, it doesn’t look great for Kyler Murray. This pass rush has been really good. They’re actually second in the NFL in time to pressure, 12th in pressure rate. If Arizona is not able to provide any run support for Kyler Murray here, this could be a really difficult situation. Now, if you are betting the Cardinals, you can point to the fact that their offensive line has actually been excellent in pass protection so far this year. This is actually crazy. They’re first in the NFL in time to pressure allowed, eighth in pressure allowed, fourth in PFF pass blocking grade. So, the offensive line, the pass protection has been excellent so far this year, but is that a reflection of who they played? so far. I mean, they opened up the year against the Saints, not exactly a dynamite pass rush, and then they played the Panthers, one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, and then they played the 49ers, and Nick Bosa only played like 12 or 13 snaps in that game. So, look, I’m not saying that the the Cardinals offensive line, the Cardinals pass protection is actually bad. I’m just saying in terms of the pass rushes they’ve seen, nothing even comes close to the Seahawks. In fact, you can probably argue the 49ers without Nick Bosa, the Saints, and the Panthers. That might be three of the three bottom five pass rushes. So, I’m not throwing the Cardinals a parade for having good pass protection numbers so far. This Seattle defensive front is crazy. Their second in time to pressure, like I said. So, I very seriously doubt they’re going to be able to keep that pass rush off of Kyler Murray. Uh it’s it’s tough sledding for the Cardinals offense here. They’re going to try to run the ball. Not sure if they can. Not sure if they’re able to protect them from the pass rush. So, yeah, tough situation for the Cardinals offense. Now, on the other side of the ball, I have no idea, honestly. I I truly have no idea about either of these units, the Seahawks offense or the Cardinals defense. I don’t know what I think about either. Uh I’m really not sure what I think of Sam Darnold right now. I mean, his numbers on the year look good. A 110.4 rating. He’s been great with a clean pocket. He’s been under pressure, handled it pretty well according to these numbers. But the Saints game is kind of skewing these numbers a little bit. Look what happens to these numbers when you take the Saints game out. Doesn’t look nearly as impressive. So, I’m not sure if I’m sold on Sam Darnold in this one. A road division game on a short week. A prime time road division game. Sam Darnold as a favorite. That sounds freaking crazy. That sounds like a suicide mission. Honestly, you know what it reminds me of? That Rams game last year. Vikings on the road at LA. Vikings minus three. I took the Rams plus three in the YouTube channel and the comments hated it. like the whole world was on the Vikings and the Rams went out. It reminds me of that and I was like guys Sam Darnold on a short week on the road prime time. It reminds me of that game a lot. Anyway, um the Cardinals defense, they’ve actually been pretty disruptive up front. They’re generating consistent pressure. They’re limiting the big downfield throws now. They are struggling to get off the field. 57.6% success rate per drop back certainly isn’t good. But as a whole, this pass defense has been solid. Remember, Carolina scored a couple of late touchdowns in that game. The Cardinals were up 18. It was 27-9 in the fourth quarter. The Panthers scored two late touchdowns. They they tacked on an extra 160 yards of offense there. So, this Cardinals defense has actually been rock solid against the pass. Now, we have to take into consideration the three quarterbacks that they’ve played. Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, M. Jones. So, I mean, I I don’t know how seriously we can take these Cardinals pass defense numbers, especially when the secondary is dealing with all types of injuries. Uh they’ve been injured all year, though, and they’ve been they’ve been pretty good against the pass. Uh, this defensive line has been really disruptive and unlike the Cardinals pass protection, if you remember just a minute ago, I was saying the Cardinals have excellent pass protection numbers, but I’m not really buying it because of the opponents. When it comes to this Cardinals defensive front, I’m more inclined to believe that this might be a pretty good unit. Keep in mind, they completely rebuilt this defensive line. They brought in Josh Sweat, Kus Campbell, Dvin Tomlinson. These are all new pieces. Davis Gaither. So, they completely retoled this defensive front and it’s been really disruptive. Darius Robinson, by the way, that’s their first round pick from last year. So, this defensive line might actually be greatly improved this year for Arizona. I actually am down to believe that it’s the secondary where they’re dealing with so many injuries. We don’t even know if Will Johnson’s back yet. He’s listed as questionable. That would be their fourth corner. Uh the guy from Michigan. So, it’s it’s the secondary where I’m not really sold. As of right now, nobody’s taken advantage of it. And yes, they’ve played they haven’t played a decent quarterback yet. Is Sam Darnold that decent quarterback in a road division prime time game. That’s the guy that’s going to exploit the secondary. Keep in mind, Sam Darnell might not have run support in this game. Seattle’s been trying to run the ball. They haven’t been successful in their first three games. 96.3 rushing yards per game, 3.3 yards per carry. The Seahawks run game hasn’t been very good against a Cardinals run defense that, like I said, they’ve been pretty good. They haven’t played the best rushing attacks, but 3.79 yards per carry allowed, 77 rushing yards per game. Success rate per rush under 33%. This run defense has been really good. So again, we’re talking about Sam Darnold road division prime time game with possibly no run support. Sounds like a death sentence if you ask me. Um, that’s what I expect to see in this game. I expect both teams to stay disciplined and stick to the run. Arizona has to run because if they drop Kyler Murray back too many times against that Seahawks pass rush could be bad news. And kind of the same thing for Seattle. They’ve been pretty diligent sticking to the run so far this season. Road short week division prime time game. I’m not sure if I I’m trying to drop Sam Darnold back a bunch of times in this game. So yeah, I would expect both teams to stick to the run in this one. Um as far as the pick, I I think my favorite pick on the board would be the the under 43 and a half. I know the Seahawks have run a a fast pace so far this year, but expect a lot of running the football, maybe just some some sustained drives and the Cardinals have been super slow. So, if they’re able to grab a couple first downs, they can easily put together a six, seven minutee drive and just kill a possible over. So, I like the under. As far as a side, I mean, dude, it’s Thursday night football the day before the game. I give me the Cardinals just to be contrarian. I don’t think there’s any I I don’t know. I I obviously the Seahawks are the better team, but won’t really trust Sam Darnold as a road favorite in prime time. So, I’ll take the Cardinals as a road favorite, but obviously this market’s going to be efficient. And you know what? Real quick, I’ll talk about uh efficient markets real quick. Um, so this is big during NFL season because it’s the some of the sharpest markets in the world. And I think people don’t 100% under understand what that means. So, I’m going to go through it real quick. So these markets are shaped by professional betting groups or betting syndicates or whatever you want to call them. It’s not a guy placing a bet on a FanDuel app or whatever. It’s a network of people that consists of handicappers, traders, and movers that have these people have access to dozens and dozens of accounts. They have people in different states that will physically go to the casinos and place bets. So when they make a move, they’re not placing a bet. They’re placing a lot of bets. I mean, these are the type of groups that will take seven figures positions. We’re talking about millions of dollars into these markets. And these are the type of groups that shape the market. We’re talking about millions of dollars, the sharpest football minds in the world. So, I’m going to paint out and an example market. This is obviously fake, just so you can visualize it. So, let’s say Bears, Packers in Green Bay. In this example, we’re going to be talking about four different betting groups, betting syndicates, whatever, whatever word you want to use for them. We’re group A, group B, group C, group D. Each group gets a fair price from their handicappers or handicapping team or quants or whatever you want to call them. So let’s say group A, their fair number for this game is 6.1, group B 6.2, group C 6.8, group D 6.9. So these four groups go to the market with the fair number from their handicappers. Right? The market opens. Green Bay minus 4 and a half. Now, obviously, when the market opens, the limits are going to be super low. And groups like this may not even bet yet because the limits might be 10K. And these are groups that are trying to get down millions of dollars, hundreds of thousands of dollars. So, might not be worth it for them to bet yet. But for this example, let’s pretend it’s Wednesday, and the limits are high enough for them to start betting. So, Green Bay minus 4 1/2 at the current listed price of 4 1/2. Group A, whose fair price is 6.1, they’re saying according to our numbers, we’ve got a 57.8% chance of covering this bet. And at minus 110, we’ve got a 5.42% edge. Again, these are madeup numbers. You would need an actual market to calculate the actual edge because you have to factor in the total. You can’t just do it blindly. You you need an actual market. So, for this example, let’s pretend it’s 5.442%. So, group A is like, “Oh, we got a strong edge on the Packers at – 4 1/2.” Group B, whose fair number is 6.2, they’re saying according to our numbers, we have a 58.1% chance of covering this bet on Green Bay minus 4 and a half. So at minus 110, we’ve got a 5.72% edge. They got a strong edge on Green Bay. Group C, their fair number is 6.8. They’re saying according to our numbers, we have a 59.7% chance of covering this bet. A 7.33% edge. We’re talking about a huge edge now. And group D, they’re saying according to our numbers, we have a 60% chance of covering this bet, a 7.62% edge at minus 110. So all four of these groups who have different fair prices, they’re all seeing a huge edge on Green Bay at -4 1/2. So they’re all going to bet the max take a position on Green Bay -4 1.5 at – 110. So what does the sports book do? Well, they react. They’re saying, “Shit, all of our sharp accounts are hitting the Packers at -4 1/2. Let’s bump it up to a soft six.” By a soft six I mean a a Green Bay – 6 – 105. So they react to their sharp accounts. They bump it up to a – 6 – 105. Now at that number, group A saying, “Eh, according to our numbers, we got a 3.5% chance of pushing, 48.5% chance of winning, and a 48 even percent chance of losing. Minus 1.8% edge there. We’re not going to make money. It’s a pass for us. The market’s good at six. Same goes for for group B. Slightly different percentages. No edge there. Negative edge. they will lose money betting Green Bay – 6 at that number. Group C, they’re saying, “Hey, we still got a 50.5% chance of winning this bet according to our numbers. 46% chance of losing this bet at -6 – 105.” So, at – 105 odds, according to our numbers, we still got a 2.1% edge on Green Bay – 6. So, they’re still going to hit the Packers -6 at – 105. And same goes for Group D. Their fair number is 6.9. And according to their numbers, they still have a 2.7% edge on Green Bay – 6 – 105. So they’re still going to hit the Packers. So at this number, group C and group D are going to hit it. Group A and group B are going to pass. So the sports book reacts. They’re saying, “Oh we’re still taking sharp money on the Green Bay side at minus 6. Let’s move it up to minus 7.” So they move the line up to minus 7. Now groups A and B, whose fair price were 6.1 and 6.2, they passed on the six. Now they’re saying, “Hey, we’ve got a 3.42% edge on Chicago plus 7. They’ve taken it too far. We’re going to buy back on the Bears at plus 7.” Uh the group B, who has a 6.2 fair number, they’ve got a 2.95% edge according to their numbers. So group A and B are going to buy back on the Bears at plus 7. Group C and D, whose fair numbers are 6.8 and 6.9, they’re passing no edge at seven. So now group A and B who passed that sixth, they will buy on the Bears on the other side at plus 7. So what does the sports book do? They react. They move it to a flat 6 1/2 – 110. So what happens when they move the number to 6 1/2? Well, none of these four groups are seeing a positive edge at 6 1/2. Both on the Packers – 6 1/2 side and the Bears plus 6 1/2 side, none of them are seeing a positive edge. The market’s efficient. So what does that mean for you? If you place a bet with minus 110 odds, essentially what you are saying is you believe that bet has a 52.3% chance or or greater than 52.3% chance of hitting because that’s the break even point for a minus 110 wager. So by placing by betting the Packers – 6 1/2 at – 110, you’re essentially saying I believe the Packers have a greater than 52.3% chance of winning this game by seven or more. So what’s the problem with that? If you bet the Packers minus 6 and a half and minus 110 at close, according to these groups, Packers minus 6 and a half has a 48.5% chance of hitting 48.8, 50.5, 50.8. Not one of these groups has Packers – 6 1/2 hitting at a 52.3% chance or greater. All four of these groups agree according to their numbers, Packers – 6 1/2 is a bad bet. Now, you still have a 50% chance of hitting according to these groups. And that’s where people get lost. They’re like, “But it won.” Yeah, you got a 50% shot. You’re not going to make money at – 110. You’re going to win some of the bets. And that’s kind of the purgatory most gamblers are in. They’re betting into efficient markets. And they truly don’t realize it. They will bet into these markets for years and years. And they will swear on a Bible, pass a lie detector test that they are winning, but the truth is they’re not. And they’re not lying. They just truly don’t know. It’s it’s a psychological thing. They’ll pass a lie detector test. Um and the same goes for the Bears plus 6 and 1/2 by the way. If you place a bet at Bears plus 6 1/2 minus 110, yeah, you’ve got a 50% chance of hitting. But you needed to hit at 52.3% chance 52.3% or greater. And according to these four groups, Bears plus 6 1/2 will hit 51.5% 51.2% 49.5% 49.2%. So essentially, if you’re placing a bet on the Packers – 6 12 – 110 or the Bears plus 6 1/2 and – 110, you are saying that you essentially what you’re saying is you are sharper. Your numbers are more accurate than all of the sharp groups that have dumped millions of dollars into that market to shape it cuz you’re saying, “Oh no, your your projections are wrong. I watch the Red Zone channel. I got this. I know Ball.” So that’s essentially what you’re saying is you you can see how insane that sounds. I’m going to give you another example so you can visualize it. Uh so say they open up what’s something stupid. Let’s Okay, let’s say a sports book opens up. Kyle overunder push-ups. Kyle Kerms overunder push-ups. They open it up at 40 and a half. You’re placing bets into the market, right? The line’s moving around. Then my brother goes into circa drops 100k on the over at 42 and a2. My brother walks into circa puts 100k on the over 42 and 1/2. Now circa knows who their sharp accounts are. So in this example, my brother would be somebody obviously who haven’t would have an accurate prediction. Compare that to a sharp betting group with a history of being accurate. So circa’s like, “Oh that’s Kyle’s brother. Put 100K on the over. Let’s move the line up to 44 1/2.” So they move the line up to 44 1/2. Then my personal trainer goes into Circa, drops 200K on the under at 44 1/2. They drop it to 43 and 1/2. My brother’s not touching it. Trainer’s not touching it. So there’s your efficient market, 43 and a half. Now, you could place bets into that market and you have a 50% chance of hitting, but the idea that your guess is going to be more accurate than my brothers or my personal trainers is just not realistic. You can be an expert in exercise science. You could be all kinds of stuff. You could study my breathing on the live streams. your guess is not going to be more accurate than them because according to their wagers, the best estimation on how many push-ups I can do is 43 or 44. So, at 43 and a half minus 110, you’re not going to hit at 52.3% chance or better. That probably wasn’t the best example. Um, the point I’m making is by placing a bet into the into the market at close, you’re saying your numbers are more accurate than all of those sharp groups, which is obviously an insane thing to think. I don’t think people realize how if you were able to beat NFL lines at post, I don’t think people realize exactly what that is. So, I’m gonna give you another illustration. Let’s say so the NFL lines at post, you can bet limitless amounts of money. I mean, you can walk into a casino, 200,000 cash, place it fine. No proxy, no runners, nothing. They will take your bet. and between different accounts and you can bet limitless millions and millions of dollars at post. They will take your bet because they’re confident in your in their number at that time. So, by saying you can beat NFL lines at post, you’re claiming to have an edge over the house in a limitless market. And I’m going to give you a comparison so you can see what a crazy claim that is. So, let’s say somebody comes up to you and they’re like, “Yo, I figured out a way to get down on black or red at the roulette table at plus 125. I can get down on black or red at the roulette table at plus125. What would your reaction be? Well, your first question would be, why aren’t you worth a hundred billion dollars, right? Why are you not worth 100 bill? Why do you not have a sizable share in Exxon Mobile right now? What? What do you mean you beat the roulette table? Why are you not worth a hundred billion? That would be your first question. Number two, and this is why the sharp sports betting community loses their mind over the sports betting media. Number two. Question number one would be why are you not worth 100 billion? Question number two. Why are you telling me? Why are you telling me this? You’re telling me you beat the house. You can you beat the house and you’re telling me? You know what beating the house looks like? You know what would happen if you actually figured out a way to get down on plus 125 at the on black arena at the roulette table. If you actually beat the house, you wouldn’t tell a soul and you would sit there until you had so much money you wouldn’t tell anybody. So yeah, the idea that you can beat the lines that close is is a crazy claim to make. And to take it a step further, and I apologize, I’m really ranting now. I didn’t plan on doing this, but to take it a step further, theoretically, it doesn’t even exist. Hear me out on this. So it doesn’t even exist. Let’s say I I’ve built an AI based model that measures NFL offensive lines in a way that has never existed before. I have a new offensive line metric that’s incredibly accurate and I now have an advantage that the market doesn’t have. So, I’m able to bet into the numbers at post because I have an advantage. I have a model that no one else has. Let’s you with me so far. There’s our scenario. I can bet and beat the numbers at post. In that scenario, I would accumulate wealth very quickly, right? I can beat NFL lines in a limitless market. So, I would accumulate wealth very quickly. And in time, I mean, obviously all my accounts on the wreck books would be limited pretty fast. I would be betting on Sharp Books and my accounts would get flagged and I would be moving the market. So even if someone does develop a way, and that happens, people find new edges, develop a way to beat the close, they would eventually move the number where they’re no longer beating the close. They’re they’re part of the influence that’s creating the close. So theoretically, it doesn’t even exist anyway. Um, wow. Yeah. Thanks for coming to my TED talk. Oh, so the biggest myth in sports betting is that you are losing money because your picks are bad. And that is the biggest myth. Like people think, oh, if I just had better picks. Like I’m losing money. I just need better picks. And there are so many people in the sports betting industry preying on people with that. Like, oh no, you need my picks. My pics are you you got to buy my picks, right? People think, oh, I just need better picks. That is a myth. You are losing money not because your pics are bad. you were losing money because of the vig. Check this out. So Toast, and I’m using Toasted as an example because he had a bad MLB season. So Toast right now, he actually got a chunk of it back recently. As of the 21st, he’s down 29.4 units in the MLB. Negative 29.4 units. So you’re thinking, “Oh, he had bad picks this year, right?” Ah, Toast made bad picks. Minus 29.4 units. Do you want to know what your record would be or what your earnings would be if you faded every single one of Toast picks this year? minus 54.13 units. You are not losing money because you’re a Pixar bad. You are losing money because of the vague. And here’s something to really wrap your mind wrap your head around and you’re going to hate this one, but think about this. At close, every single person in the world is going to be 50%. And I mean me, you, a random person on the street, a woman in Switzerland that’s never watched an NFL game in her life. All of our picks at close will go 50% over time. Not because this person knows as much as football about as much about football as I do, but because neither of us are sharper than the numbers that shape the market. We’re all going to be 50% because the markets are efficient. So right now you might be thinking, are you saying there’s no way to win? No, of course not. I mean, dude, you got a 50% chance of winning. Better away, man. Let’s have fun. I do it all the time. I do it pretty much every week on Monday Night Football. So it’s not what I’m saying. just in terms of winning long-term. Obviously, you’re not going to win any money betting into the numbers that post. It’s more just having fun trying to pick some winners. Now, as recreational bers, we do have, and I say we, me, too. I’m not betting hundreds of thousands of dollars into these markets. So, as wreck bers, we do have an advantage over the sharp betting groups. We have a huge advantage, the biggest advantage ever. We don’t have to wait. The lines open, the limits are only 10K. They have to wait until the limits get higher so they can get a sizable wager down. We don’t. We can bet right away. So, we get first dibs on the market. That’s our advantage as WCK bers. So, of course, this still fun to have. Yeah. Sorry for the rant. I I’ll I’ll end it here. I’ll talk to you guys tomorrow.

Kyle Kirms shares his breakdown and picks for Thursday Night Football. Week 4 matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals.

0:00 Intro
1:00 Seahawks @ Cardinals
10:58 What is an efficient market?

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