5 stats you NEED TO KNOW for the Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions | Week 4

5 stats you NEED TO KNOW for the Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions | Week 4

I got a 5 pack of stats that I think you guys need to know for this weekend’s game against the Detroit Lions. Two of the stats we talked about last week, by the way, came to exact fruition as how the game played out. So hopefully, we could do a little predictive nature with these ones as well. The first that you need to know is pressure, pressure, and pressure against Green Bay. The Browns had 22 pressures. Jordan Love was pressured on 45.2% of his dropbacks. That’s the highest of his career. Now, that translates into this game because Jerry Goff is two completely different quarterbacks. First pressure versus not being pressured. You could say it’s about a lot of quarterbacks, but very few have the dramatic difference between their QBR, which encapsulates everything. When they’re pressured versus when they’re clean. When, when Gsman kept clean in the pocket, he is the number 2 QBR in the entire NFL through 3 games. When he’s been pressured, that QBR drops to 26. That 24 drop, small sample size 3 games, I understand, is the biggest differential between any quarterback in football this season. So if you’re the Browns, got to get pressure, especially with that front four. That’s an interesting stat, and it is, uh, it is tell yes, most quarterbacks are gonna be worse under pressure, but the fact that he’s 2nd in 26th, that is a massive difference. So that, that is important and obviously the Browns, as you know, we recognized by last week got a lot of pressure. Really, I mean this is the toughest challenge the Browns have faced in terms of an offensive line. And so it’ll be fascinating to see who can win those battles in the trenches because you got two excellent units battling against each other. That’s, that, that’s where the game’s gonna be won and lost, I think, when the, when the Browns, um. Defenses on the field and how they stack up with that offensive line. Can we control the run game again, you know, we got 2, a two-headed monster back there and two running backs this time, a quarterback and a running back. The Browns will win 0 games this year when their D line doesn’t dominate 0. Anybody wanna disagree with that? Domin dominated is a very tough word to say in the league. — Like dominates like
— play well, play very well, right, yeah, I mean I would agree with that. If they can’t golf, they’re gonna, they’re gonna get smoked in this game. There’s, so when, when you, when you got an offense like that, that, uh, is very varied on the way that they line up, the way that they run the ball, the way they use motion. The way they use play action and moving the line, it’s difficult to just pin your ears back and run because there’s so many things that you gotta worry about. They got a good screen game with Jam Gibbs, they could throw the ball out quick screens to Jamison Williams. They, they run between the tackles, they can run zone. They do a lot of things where it keeps defensive linemen thinking like I can’t just run up field and and get out to the quarterback because there’s some other things I gotta honor. So it’s, it’s, it’s a tough, it’s a tough batch up. The Browns are, are a great front. I’m interested to see how they’ll uh they’ll handle themselves against this front and, uh, in your offense line versus defensive line, but it’s gonna be, it’s a, it’s a tough battle for a reason, right? It’s they’re at home. That that’s why I’m gonna get a chance to see just how good they is this game, right? Hey Mike, one more time, 2nd in a clean pocket. What was it? What was the other 2 I’d be curious to know. Who’s number one under pressure? Like, you know what I mean? Yeah, give me a second. I’ll. Oh, do you have it that quickly? I’m just, I, — it’s just the rankings of the quarterbacks under
— the Mike in the Mike in the corner there with the Nuggets. We had, we had to make it a little more, uh, but you just keep filibustering. — What you think it would
— be? Uh, Lamar, I would say Lamar. It’s, well, — because it’s
— only 3 games. It’s, it’s no, you’re right, yeah, I guess it was gonna be more like last year or the last couple of years, I would think the usual suspects normally Patrick, but boy, he, he’s been really bad under pressure this year. But to me, Lamar and Josh would be your likely suspects. I think they’d be pretty high probably some name he never. Baker, there’s something that you wouldn’t listen, he’s been great in late late game situations this year. Like that was the bugaboo with him here. He couldn’t win in the 4th quarter. In fact, he usually threw the interception that he sunk the chip, and now it’s like they get into a 4th quarter situation and everybody on the team, they, I watched some news, some clips of, uh, Buck’s interviews this week, and they were like. We’re comfortable down to score late in the game. I wonder, and that would never have been said here. This will be interesting for them this week. Mike Evans is out for a while and they’re playing Philly be and Godwin’s still out. What do you got, Mike. So this is according to PFF, this is a quarterback’s EPA per dropback based on where they start versus under pressure. Only two quarterbacks last year. I’m not taking this year, too small a sample size. Only 2 quarterbacks in football had a better EPA per dropback under pressure than in a clean pocket. You want to get this year? This is last year. And this this should not be a surprise. Alan and Josh, yep, — the only two in football if they better EPA
— under pressure. I know you said small sample size this year, but are they, who’s who’s the top 3 this year? — Are they even I
— have to sort it player by player, team by team. I found a chart that they put out of last year. That’s uh, but it’s interesting after that, then it goes into the negatives. Who had the 3rd. Even though it’s a negative differential, the differential is Baker. There you go, you wouldn’t be surprised by that. Uh, some guys who were not good, Geno Smith. CJ Stroud, Daniel Jones, and last year, Jerry Goff once again in the bottom 5, — I guess
— s me, although I guess he didn’t have, he wasn’t great last year. That surprises me a little bit. I thought he’d be, yeah, he took a real step back and hasn’t taken a step in the right direction. I still believe in him. I, I do too. I, I believe, I believe he’d be OK. But there has definitely been that we saw the sophomore slump and even more so, I think we’re seeing. Sometimes they just hit, hit a wall that they can’t knock over. I’m taking him, golf, whatever. — Give me
— anybody. I have a Flacco under pressure stack coming, so we’ll get to that in a second. Flacco’s a, — it’s got to be senior drop off
— when we talk about the Browns, we always, we always give Miles Garrett the most credit, and it’s 100% deserved. He’s the head of the snake when it comes to the pastors, but so far this year. Hasn’t just been Miles. The entire Browns defensive line has been awesome. Look at their pass rush win rates against Green Bay from last week. Miles said, which was awesome. Mason Graham was at 43. Seth Walder of ESPN pointed out that the average pass rush win rate for a defensive tackle is 9% against Green Bay. Mason Graham was up to 43%. Malik Collins at 33%. And I want to give Tyvis a shout out. Speaking of Malik Collins, you see this graphic on the screen right here? These are through week 3. This does not include last night’s game. The highest pass rush win rates. Among all interior defensive linemen in football. Look at that. You have 3 defensive tackles on that list who have been all pros before. Dexter Lawrence, arguably the best defensive tackle in football. Mattbique Pro Bowler last year. Simmons has been incredible in Tennessee. Oso has been good. None of them have been better at generating pressure from the interior than Malik Collins this season through 3 games. So I just wanted to gives a shout out. It’s not just Miles. That whole defensive line’s been awesome. No, no, no, we’re gonna have to strip that metal bull. Get it, get it ready. I was surprised you, you didn’t strip this earlier. Why? Those pass rush, room rakes look beautiful. But I’d like to know what the pass rush runway is when you get one on ones every play. When you were catching one on ones with a guard and you’re a defensive lineman, there was a play, there’s multiple plays where this man has 3 dudes on him, 3. Bull said something the other day, and I’m not stripping your medals cause I think Maliek Collins is a good player. I like what Mason Graham is doing, but it’s, it’s almost like being like, hey man, you get a lot of open shots when LeBron is playing. Of course you are. All you gotta do is sit right in that corner and you don’t move, JR, uh, Shumper and hang out. Miles Garrett be having now it goes to 2. I saw a tight end in this game straight up just have Miles Garrett. They’re like, it’s you guys double teaming. You have no routes. There’s no chipping release. — You
— have them. I know, but I think the difference is it’s been that way for years with the Browns. I, — I ain’t no 3
— the league every year in double teams. Yeah, Malik Collins has done a better job than our other guys and so is. Jason Graham, but gee, still right. Part of the reason for their success is because of my. — What I’m
— pointing out is LeBron a lot of guys who couldn’t make that open shot. It’s been that way for years here and nobody else was willing to eat like he is. So he gets credit for this. He’s finally taken advantage of what all the guys previous to him did not take advantage of. If you are getting single, and, and it’s a, it’s a different mindset, right? They, they shuffle through a lot of different people and figured it out, um, but when you got the dude over there, he’s telling them too, hey, listen, you’re supposed to be killing. You got to eat. If, if, if, if it’s just, and I’ve never heard this to myself, I listen, the Packers said this and I was baffled. When he said there’s a list of plays that I’m not even gonna run, yeah, — no 95 on the field
— plays. That’s, that’s, that’s half. — What do you mean that’s two different
— game plans. Well, it’s like what I said on Monday. I, I remember when def offenses used to say, OK, we’re not throwing the Dion side. We’re not gonna, we’re not doing it. And that was rare then because these guys all have egos. They’re like, OK, fine, mano a mano, your best versus our best. Dion was so good they were just like. Yeah, nope, not throwing on that side. So they cut the field in half. It’s the same thing with Miles Garrett, and I don’t think Green Bay is dumb for doing that, by the way. When, when Miles is not on the field, they should have a list of plays that let’s go, let’s go eat because he’s on the sidelines. Every team should do that. Now granted, McNuggets. I’m gonna give May Graham credit. Hey, hey, you get the one on one, take advantage of it. I’d rather you have 43 than 12. Right. — Give me the 12
— still above average. What was the Browns? What were the rest of the Browns’ pass rush win rates last year, Mike? Is that easy to find? Uh, I’d have to dive deep into that, but I can get you the answer. I’ll tell you, probably not good. — The eye
— test, not good. I’ll tell you, Garrett was good. No one else in the defensive line really stepped up. All right, next step though, we’re gonna flip the script here. We talked about the Browns pressuring. The Lions, well, this is the opposite of that. The Browns offensive line this year, according to ESPN’s pass, uh, blocking and run blocking win rates tell a story of two tales. The league average and one block win rate. They are 29th in pass block win rate. We talked about Jared Goff having the 26th worst PFF grade against pressure. Well, Flacco’s QBR this season under pressure is literally 3.3. Is that the worst? That’s got to be the worst. It is dead last in the NFL by a large margin. Oh my God. And we talked about the worst line and the slowest. Quarterback. We talked about the Browns having 22 pressures against the Packers. Again Lamar last week, the Lions had 30 pressures and 7 sacks. So it’s a defensive line they can get after. Lamar, sacks. Lamar took a lot of sacks too. He was he just a couple of times just ran directly in the other direction. Thinking that he would eventually get out of it and he didn’t. Wow. The ends for Detroit because Lamar has made a lot of those guys that ended up getting him down on silly in the past for trying to chase him down and they got him out, he said, listen, knows why. A Hutchinson’s white, yeah, deceptively fat. No, he’s pretty fast. He’s just fast. They don’t need in other words, he’s white, — so you don’t think
— I’m just saying it’s like the fast wide receiver that’s white, right? Like, like those guys are alwaysd McConkey is, you know what else I heard. First I heard great route runners, — real gritty
— route. — First guy in last guy out you say
— that? Yeah, I did, yeah, yeah, yeah. First guy in. Belichick loves him, man. Listen, man. Special teams works his butt off. — Has
— anybody destroyed his reputation more at the end of his career than Bill Belichick? I’ve never seen it. It’s a great point bowl OJ. Well this is no, no, no, I think what he’s not talking about his human reputation. I think he’s talking about I had to shake that’s the greatest we’ve ever seen a Bulls question like Cosby as a coach or as a player. No. And that’s saying something because a lot of guys hang on way too long, way too he looks like a there is a, uh, there was somebody sent me a video. This is sick. If you really wanna get a good laugh, Google David Lee Roth concert. This dude’s still out there doing concerts, OK? And someone sent me this clip this morning and I swear to you I thought it was fake. I’m like, that’s not real. He’s wearing really tight black leather pants and he looks like a senior citizen. He is, but all I could think of in my mind was. Bill Belichick on Tuesday nights and how hard it is to watch tight leather pants, the goat and he’s down and the, the, and I, this is probably bad to say those are the clips that are most infuriating to me because this was a guy who tolerated. He didn’t want players having relationships. He didn’t want girlfriends. He didn’t want wives. You never ever would bring up a girlfriend or a wife, and now his girlfriend is on the, so. Oh well she she’s one of the cheerleaders. Let me show you how she is 2. So, — so is
— 72, right? Bill is — the oldest is
— 3. So let me just give you a perspective. Yeah, dating a girl at Young is disgusting. When you saw the way you, you give him too much credit. I mean, when you 23, 4, 73, there’s a, there’s a, there’s a 51 when she was born. It’s a level where you cross and You like that commercial where you say you turn into your parents. Yeah, I love those commercial. Those commercials are are factual. You literally, as the eldest son have to start doing things. I told Mom, hey. Dad can’t drive after a certain time at night. I put the restrictions on. Hey, um, yeah, oh, you, you dropped that hammer. Yeah, yeah, you can’t she can’t, he can’t drive at night like that. You you daytime driving, uh, going different places and be like, hey, listen, you know your volume is kind of high. My mom’s volume got high cause she can’t hear in one ear. My dad’s volume got lower cause he like he had, he can’t see in one eye. So when you’re doing all this, they, they, they only 70. My mom’s 68, he’s 70. Bill Belichick is out here trying to coach up young teenage young men with his girlfriend on the sideline. At this point he’s supposed to be tucked away drinking warm coffee and milk. He’s supposed to be somebody, listen, he, there’s people that be like literally almost be having to go to the retirement home in Florida and Fort Lauderdale. He ain’t got no business coaching out there real quick, the best, I, I, this is not hyperbole to me, the best Saturday Night Live sketch I’ve ever seen. Meet your future wife. Just, just YouTube it. It is unbelievable. Uh, it was the polar era, OK, so not that old, — and it’s like the
— polar er I, yeah, it was her and the brunette. I forgot her name. They were the co-hosts. I’ll just give you a little they’re funny it is. The best sketch I’ve ever seen on Saturday Night Live where they have this man and his wife is in the audience and they say, Well, you’re gonna die in a fire, and here’s his future wife and a 5 year old walks out. It is, — I’m telling you
— it is. Well, by the time Bill was 51. Well, he’s 49, right, because if she’s 24, he’s 73, — but still I mean it’s I mean I’m 49
— right now. She’s 70, he’s 73, yeah, she’s 24. OK, yeah, 49. OK, um. Some say he went out like, he went out like a G. He went, he went out. He’s like, listen, I listen, I don’t, I don’t wasted a lot of time, but I’m gonna make this one count. If that, if that were my daughter, I’m taking her back to Belichick. Well, — it’s not
— advocate that kind of stuff. All right, next stat, you guys got to avoid any issues — that was the uh number 4
— guys. We uh, we’re gonna talk a little more about Quin shot and the TV show. There’s some stats that’ll help give a little context to the conversation we are going to have. The Browns ranked 29th in the NFL this season in yards before contact per rush. All these stats come from ESPN’s NextGen Stats. Actually, I think it’s Amazon’s Next gen stats, the NFL Pirs that. Averaging 0.57. Yards before their runner gets contacted. However, they ranked 6 in the NFL and yards after contact at 3.43 and Quin John Judkins, despite playing in just 2 games, qualifies with the amount of cars he has, ranks number 1 in the league in the amount of yards. After per carry at 5.14. So the line not holding up. They’re hit, but it’s not just been. He’s been the majority of it, but both Samson and Ford have done a pretty good job making the first guy miss and extending that initial. You know what’s this. If they are league are they at? They’re like — One of the worst
— rate. — That doesn’t make sense
— to me. I wonder if one is subjective and the other is a finite number. Maybe because true. So here’s the thing, you can, you can win. Like you were like, OK, I, I blocked this. I don’t know what goes into win rate like see that’s the thing like I blocked for running because that, that’s really if you give me those numbers, that’s actually an indictment on Judkins that you’re getting hit that early. If the blocking, if the run blocking is supposed to be league average, why are you getting hit so early? Say for instance you block a guy, but you don’t get no movement downfield. So you block him, but he sheds you in 2 seconds and yeah, do you win the block like you it’s so subjective. That’s why you are, I always, you know, — it’s grain of salt
— another part of this also is that if you’re playing the Browns right now, the only thing you’re worried about is the run, run, yeah, and so you might have extra. So the offensive linemen might all win their blocks and the guy might come up and and make the, — the first
— hit they’re running into a ton of or they could — be running into a ton of boxes and it’s about
— to get, it’s about to get nastier. Like if I’m, if I’m a defensive coordinator, there is no way that I’m letting a rookie running back. You can stop the run. It’s just numbers. It’s just, can you count to 10, right? Like, I could put more people up there. I could shoot gaps. We could do a lot of things to stop Kuha Junkins. — So
— now maybe one of our receivers could get open if they did that. Well, there’s, there’s a, there’s a nice thought, Jay, run, but you have, you, but you have to do it in a way where they’re not sitting on the stuff that they like to run, right? It’s, it’s just. Football is a is a game of it’s it’s a very easy game, but there is some strategy to it, but it’s just all about the numbers. So hopefully we’ll, we’ll see if he can still continue to break some of these runs with, with larger people and numbers in a box. Imagine what he could do with a great run block line. Like I, I do think we’re sitting on something special here. Oh, he’s legit. — I think
— legit. Yeah. Alright, last stat you guys gotta know when it is 3rd down and the Browns are on defense. Jared Goff is looking to Aman Ra Saint Brown. He has 20 catches this season. 16 of those have gone for first down. So I was curious to say that’s 75%. How does that rank not just among the NFL but going back throughout the rest of the season? My math is wrong. 80%. It’s even better than I thought. When you look at his previous seasons though, the numbers higher and you’re gonna see 75 on the graphic because my math is terrible, but imagine it’s at 80%. Imagine if you will. 24, 23 and 22, he was at 63, 64% of his reception. 73 of 115 and 24, 75 of 119 and 23, 68 of 196 and 22. Since 2021. Going even the year before this, Amanra has the most targets, the most receptions, and the most yardage on 3rd down, converting 3rd downs into 1st downs. There is no better, uh, I don’t say no better receiver, no receiver that gets more opportunities and no quarterback that looks to one individual receiver more on those money downs than Jerry Goff does to Amanra Saint Brown. So on 3rd down. Whether it’s Denzel Ward, whether it’s Greg Newsome, if he’s on the slot, which he lines up, he lines up in a ton in the slot on 3rd down, you know where the lines are. I want 21 on Brown every 3rd down. That ain’t gonna happen, — but that’s
— not gonna happen. — It
— won’t, — but
— I want it. What’s impress what’s particularly impressive about that is that he’s been doing it for years and nobody could stop him, right? I think the 75 or 80 this year is sample size, right, but he’ll regress to the mean, which apparently is 63.5% or somewhere, which is great. I mean, it’s great, but finish in the top 5 each of those four years. In the top 5 and then 2021 in most first down receptions, targets, and when you add it all together over that five-year span, like I said, what a what a weapon when you’ve got that reliable down that you can keep the sticks. — That’s why the Lions have had one of the best offenses over
— the last couple of years. And the Browns. Oh my God had to do it. I’m done. I’m done. And I’m supposed to trust these guys to get — the quarterback
— right I’ll be draft well this year. That’s the only hope. Hey, you go back through, you take a step forward. That nutrition worst thing gets me every time. So, um, here’s the thing I, I like what they do. I like spamming stuff until you stop me, I’m gonna spam that. I’m gonna continue to send you junk email. I’m gonna continue you to send you all kinds of text messages. Hey, are you sending me spam? Yeah, listen, I, they get me. I, I get you. They gotta get me it’s fair, only fair. Now that spam that they’re doing with, with Amra Saint Brown is beautiful because they understand he’s not a 6 ft 5 outside long deep receiver, you know what they do? They said, all right, well listen, most of these dudes want to put their corner at the boundary or follow people around. Good luck following them because we gonna, we gonna get him all in the slot. We gonna move around, he gonna be a linebacker and nickelback. Can you imagine what he looks like when he’s running over the middle and it’s a linebacker and some little nickel guy. He’s eating, he’s like he’s doing this the whole time and then they mess you up because they throw Jason Williams out and they say, hey, you still, hey, he’s fast. You better guard him. Oh, and they got another tight that’s patrol in the middle too. That’s a deep, that’s a threat to run corner routes, to run big time routes downfield. — So he’s getting
— and Gibbs is a Uh, one of the best pass catching backs. — So
— now you got, now you gotta guard the flats, the screen game can come, and every single time they give you all of that other stuff and they’re throwing a little sprinkle of motion over the top with some herbs and garlic seasoning and I’m Rosa Brown is just running wide open. You’re like, who’s guarding him? And they’re like, well, coach, uh, we have to honor the rest of this stuff, and he just continues to kill you.

The Cleveland Browns (1-2) visit the Detroit Lions (2-1) at Ford Field in Detroit for a Week 4 showdown, and USA TODAY’s panel of NFL experts have locked in their picks and predictions for the action. Here’s everything you need to know before kickoff on Sunday, September 28, including live updated odds and injury report news. Lions vs. Browns picks against the spread
Jon Hoefling: Cleveland Browns (+9.5)

Expert MLB daily picks: Unique MLB betting insights only at USA TODAY
The Cleveland Browns are a trap team. No one expected them to beat the Packers. They did. No one expected them to cover against Cincy. They did. They will lose this game, but it will be closer than anticipated.

Blake Schuster: Detroit Lions (-9.5)

Oh this line is a trap after the Browns shocked Green Bay last week. Do not fall for it. Detroit will roll at home.

Tyler Dragon: Detroit Lions (-9.5)

The Browns are coming off the biggest upset win of the week. The Lions had a huge statement win over the Ravens in Week 3. It’s going to be interesting to see how Cleveland’s stout defense matches up against Detroit’s physicality. | https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2025/09/24/nfl-browns-lions-picks-predictions-odds-week-4/86318444007/

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