Are the Detroit Tigers really headed to the playoffs? | Tiger Territory

Are the Detroit Tigers really headed to the playoffs? | Tiger Territory

[Music] and welcome in to another episode of Tiger Territory part of the F territory network. A retired podcast. I’m Kley. With me as always, the man who’s a senior level expert and traveling around the junior circuit. He is Cody Hagen. How you doing? Hey, doing all right. Uh, all is well in the world. The Tigers won a baseball game for the first time in what felt like a long time. I wrote eight days that felt like 80. Um I don’t like like how we’re feeling like this one win. Shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. It does not erase a very very bad span of baseball. But it does kind of remind you that’s really all they needed was like one or two wins to change the angle of the playoff picture. Um the Tigers playoff odds. We’ll just go ahead and put this up. They’re at 84.2%. um still have an outside chance to win the division. They’re tied. We got three games left. Basically, if you can get one more win, I mean, your magic number is two. You know, some combination of two Tigers wins and Astros losses, and you are going to the playoffs. So, there’s that big exhale. Again, I don’t think that makes any of this better. You do have to It’d be nice to see him win maybe two in a row, but you have a chance to write write this ship a little bit. I think it’d be the most 2025 Tigers thing ever to get in the playoffs, go back to Cleveland, beat the Guardians, and then who knows what happens uh from there. I I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I could sure see it happening. Yeah. Uh you know, in regards to to Thursday night’s game, we’re recording this uh Friday morning. Cody’s already in Boston, so like you know, it you know, it’s full go time, obviously. You know, I’m watching the game. I’m at my local watering hole. I’m taking notes and this guy is like trying to talk to me about Russian literature and how that’s how he used to like get girls in college. And I’m like, “Dude, it’s the eighth inning. Finnegan’s on the mound.” Like, I’m trying to be nice, but like the Russian literature thing doesn’t actually work. At least not at Oklahoma State. Maybe if you have a toughs or something. So, so yeah, I’m just like I’m like I’m trying to be nice, but it’s like, dude, this is crucial moments here, you know? Uh, but it was really fun. And my my wife was at a conference and she was like, “Oh, how was your evening? and you were able to relax. I was like, when that game was over, I was able to relax because it was like all these things. We had kind of seen snippets of all these little things that that we know the Tigers do and what when they and they usually add up to like winning baseball, not necessarily wins all the time, but winning baseball. And it was nice to kind of see that kind of stuff like actually result in a W. So that’s just like my exhale like what was that clubhouse like? you know, because again, you’re there like every day and before the game and after the game and and you and you’re kind of having to ask like the same questions over and over again to a lot of the same guys and that’s like a tiring experience from from both sides. So, what was that clubhouse like to be able to talk about all those things and a win? Yeah, it was a lot better. First time there’s been music playing in a long time. Definitely the most lively and and full it’s been in a long time. I think like three or four different guys use some variation of, you know, lifting a weight off our shoulder. Winsel Perez literally gave like the biggest exhale I’ve ever seen. Like it just felt like ah um and that is how it felt. I do think it the Tigers felt like that collectively. Even after the first inning, the Jamai Jones homer, the Wel homer, you got momentum. You gave your young starter a lead. Oddly enough, they scored first in all three games in Cleveland. Yeah. Yeah. a two- lead rather than a 10 lead made a difference this time. The homers, you know, they they were riding pretty high. Again, it it kind of felt like more than one win. Just I think that’s how bad they needed to break the streak. That’s how bad um how impactful one win at this point in the year can be and changing the playoff picture. So, we’ll see if they can keep that going. We’ll see if they can play another good game against a good Red Sox team that also has a lot at stake this weekend. Um, they didn’t play a perfect game. They squandered a lot of run- scoring opportunities. They had some bad at bats with runners in scoring position. Got in a couple sticky situations, but they got out of it. And that was the biggest thing. They pitched well. Their uh bullpin day pitching chaos actually unfolded according to plan. Oddly enough, their last two victories have been bullpin days. If you go back to that Sunday in Miami with Jose Ariti and and Kater Montero. So, the strategy can still work every now and then. and it worked pretty much to perfection. AJ Hinch was back in control, making good decisions, the decisions that made sense, and he got good results. It was one game, but refreshing. Yeah. And like there, you know, I had I had referenced in a previous episode like all these like potential breakthroughs and they didn’t happen. Uh, you know, because you end up getting the losses, but now that there’s a win, we can talk about like some some breakthrough aspects. So you have, you know, the advantageous lineup, the rightiescentric lineup, the switch hitting Perez, and like I said, two home runs in the first inning. Riley Green gets himself a home run off a lefty, not a cheap one either. Uh and and the bullpen, the bullpen like actually playing out as designed, as instructed. Uh, I think obviously these pieces were all acquired at different times and there’s been injuries, but like that the the herder chain then again best like go go you know lineup if you would is something that AJ would probably like to use at a decent clip. You have the righties, you have the lefty specialist, you have the righty with what you know what we’ve seen this year can be a devastating uh uh pitch and cany and then you bring in essentially your two closing horses and they’re they’re able to uh get the job done even through the uh you know the Quan and the Ramirez as part of the lineup there. So what what was one game but it’s going into the final weekend. What’s the bigger deal from from that win and also the melting piece which we’ll get to as well? Oh yeah, I’d like to say it’s the pitching, but looking at at the stats, you know, the Tigers game notes puts out every day, Tigers are now 70 and5 when they lead after six innings, which it doesn’t feel like that given how much we’ve complained about the bullpin all season. I think what that shows is like, well, you’ve had two pretty good guys at the back of your bullpin for most of the year. Vest has been pretty good all year despite a little LOL this month. Kanley actually for Keanley’s back to being good again maybe. Um for a lot of the year Kanley’s been good. You’ve been okay at being able to hold on to leads. It’s when you have to dig deeper in your bullpen that the Tigers have gotten in some real trouble. Uh when tied after six, they have a losing record 12 and 14. And when they’re trailing after six, they’re only four and 54, which is interesting. Uh they haven’t had a lot of dramatic come from behind wins. for as much as, oh, this is a fun, emotional team, they they haven’t come from behind very often. Um, and you could argue they haven’t had the bullpen to keep them in games when it gets late and they’re losing and AJ Hinch is deploying the bullpen a little bit differently. So, those are kind of some illuminating numbers to show what’s really going on. I still think especially if we start talking about playoff baseball, you got to have more than one or two guys in the bullpen and at least for a night you did. You had Melton coming out of the gates. We’ll talk a little bit more about him in a second. Brent Herder, pretty important guy for you, man. Not having him for a stretch in the air, him having to go down and and rediscover his mechanics, that hurt. Will vest, that was his best outing in a minute. His style, it looked a little more like Will Vest. I thought that I asked Adrian Hinch like, “Did you need to see that?” And he said, “No, I just need to see the final out.” Um, you know, Treso and all that, but but yeah, like I needed to see that. You know, I think you feel a lot better. Kyle Finn again lowkey been giving up some runs. Keep an eye on that, but strung together the game uh unfolded as planned. I think that was the most important takeaway. Yeah. And I also don’t want to uh let the fact that Jav had himself in RBI, too. Like I was going to say Karen, who was the MVP of that game? You could argue Melton, could argue Jamai. There’s a low-key case for Jav Bayz. RBI single, another knock. Um, and some nice defensive plays. A reminder that the Tigers are just a better and a different team when Jav is able to be a on the field and b at least somewhat productive. Yeah, I don’t know if that’s going to be the case going forward, but it was a little reminder of like, dude, this guy matters. They did a lot of the small things yesterday that again, it’s like this is the team that I’ve watched since late March. You know, I did I didn’t recognize this team over the past couple weeks, but this is the team that I’ve watched since late March. all the little things. Uh Jav the com, you know, how comfortable he is like going after balls and you know his IQ and then like really really aggressive like a really aggressive base running I would say uh yesterday as well from a couple guys including Parker Meadows. Uh and then even like what was that the uh bottom of the fourth way Torres makes a bare-handed play on Rokio and uh gets the out. Umpire kind of like sneezes or something. I don’t know. I didn’t see where his hands went. And and so but but Torque throws home and makes a perfect throw where Dingler just has to like catch glove down right where right where the slide was. Obviously didn’t matter because the out was at first base, but there was a situation where what if he’s safe and then what was you know what happens at home and then like is it does that become like the are you effing kidding me ties, you know what I mean? Like that was a real thing that could have happened. But like all those little things uh play played into it. So that was really good to see. And then we got to give credit to one Jamai Jones and we will do that in the form of making him our chart topper of the week presented by DraftKings. So yeah, you know, DraftKings uh gives us an opportunity to kind of look at like different things of what makes this team go and and and Jamai Jones is one of those like pieces that has really made this team go in a variety of ways, Cody. and and and sometimes you forget just like how I don’t want to say random, that’s not the right term, but just how like lowkey bringing Jamai Jones into the organization was. You’re like, “Oh, this is kind of cool.” Like, you know, you have the family aspect of it. That’s nice. You know, and he’s become like a vital component to u to what AJ wants to do with this lineup. Not only is he, you know, a lefty killer, and I’ll I’ll get to some some some numbers examples in a second, but the fact that he’s a guy that you put at the top of the lineup so that when you know the the bullpens come in, you want to bring in Carpenter, you want to bring in, you know, Meadows is a bad example, but McKinstry, you know, whoever, like you can put those guys at the top of the lineup to be with the, you know, the heart of your order. You see what I’m saying? So that’s it’s not just like, oh, he’s a guy that we play against lefties. We play him from the jump. And I think that’s important, too. So, how do you kind of illustrate Jamai Jones’s importance to this team? Hear me up. Remember when the Tigers didn’t take Jay Hen or Jamai Jones on the opening day roster so they could sign Manuel Marggo and have Ryan Kriedler be the opening day center fielder? Was that two years ago? I can’t remember. Uh, that was this year. That was this season. So, if you want to add to the list of things that probably weren’t handled well, maybe you could put that on there. At the same time, in the big picture, one thing Scott Harris got right this year was picking up Jamai Jones. That was probably the one smaller under the radar, you know, the type of move that tends to be his mo that he got right. You got this guy for nothing on a minor league deal. And he has a 923 ops. Like, he has been really good. We were talking at the trade deadline like, okay, if you get another right-handed bat, you’re probably just replacing Jamai. Is that worth it? It’s probably a good thing they didn’t take a, you know, roll the dice on some other right-handed platoon guy because you might not have Jamai Jones with a 923 OPS hitting a leadoff homer in a huge game against the Guardians. He’s been um a low-key bright spot. probably has not been talked about enough just because hey, there’s been kind of a lot of other stuff to talk about lately, but credit is where credit’s due. Jama, he’s got a great personality, really authentic guy, seems like he’s fit in well in this clubhouse, handled his role really well. Um, and come up in some big moments, and he might not be done coming up in big moments. Yeah. So, that was his seventh home run off left-handed pitching uh of the season, which matches Glaver Torres. And if you look at like their like their offensive output in various numbers, like you said, what was uh Jones’s OPS against lefties? Oh, that’s just overall. I don’t know. Oh, well, against lefties, Torres is a 926. I have it right here. And and 954 is Jones. So, it’s like their profiles are very similar. Even if you look at Don’t give the Tigers any ideas, Kieran. We don’t need to get any more right-handed hitting next year. So, we have Jamai Jones. Uh, careful. Well, yeah. Even if you look at the, uh, you know, if you go on DraftKings, you just kind of play around with the batter props, uh, which it which I find fun because I think it actually does tell a story. Three plus total bases, Glaver Torres plus 329. three plus total bases. Jamai Jones plus 366. Two plus hits plus 290 for Torres. Two plus hits plus 322. These are like these are sense differences is that that’s the point of what I’m saying with these numbers is that they largely view these guys as similar hitters when there’s a left-handed starter on the mound. And that brings us to our pick of the week. We have it on the screen here. Jamai Jones two plus hits at plus 322. um could have done in the total basis thing. If he does what he did on Thursday on Friday, then that would have taken care of that. But I was thinking right-hander, you know, Fenway like get, you know, just, you know, hit it off the wall. He’s certainly capable of that. The the uh Red Sox are putting Kyle Harrison on the mound Friday as of as of this recording. So, uh you figure, you know, Jamai Jones is going to be right. I actually made this pick before the leadoff home run for the record. So, uh this is this is not just piggybacking. is one of those things that actually kind of worked out in in our in our favor, which doesn’t always happen. So, uh, Jamai Jones, two plus hits plus 322. You can download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code foul. Bet $5 and that bet hits, you get $200 in bonus bets instantly. DraftKings Sportsbook, the crown is yours. Your season, your shot. The NFL season is rolling and every touchdown can bring you closer to a payout with DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NFL. Every snap is loaded with opportunity. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code foul. That’s code foul to get $200 in bonus bets instantly when you place your first $5 bet. Plus over $200 off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. In partnership with DraftKings, the crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1800 gambler. In New York, call 8778Y or text open467-369. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call 888789-7777 or visit ccpg.org. Please play responsibly. On behalf of Bootill Casino and Resort in Kansas, fees may apply in Illinois. 21 and over. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Bdon, Ontario. Bonus bets expire 7 days after issuance. See sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. NFL Sunday ticket offer for new subscribers only in Ottawa news until cancelled. Digital games and commercial use excluded. Restrictions apply. Additional NFL Sunday terms at youtube.com/go Sunday/terms. Limited time offer. All right, coming back here. Uh, another piece of of what we saw Thursday and something that could be, you know, could be a factor later on is Troy Melton starting for the first time in like a month, I think, and and really showing why this guy is why he’s been your boy for for a while now and and why that like the the starter upside is a lot of fun. You hope you can kind of transition that into some sort of bullpen arm, but that was that was fun. and he was pumping 99. He ends up going 3.2 innings. Uh gives up one run. He has on only two hits and uh a strike out there with with two walks. Uh obviously he wasn’t going to go five or six or anything that it’s it’s too late for that. But just a reminder of what an asset this guy is when he when uh when used I think in his more natural setting. Yeah, I think the usage of Melton remains a big topic. Did they get this right or not? Should he have just been part of the rotation? It’s an interesting question. I think there’s a case for it. I don’t hate what the Tigers did moving him to the pin. The whole idea was they could use him more often. They could use him in a wider variety of scenarios. He could be a multi-inninging bridge type reliever. That’s kind of something they really needed. 2020 h being hindsight that didn’t really unfold the way they wanted because they lost 20 of 27 games they did not have a lead very often and therefore I don’t think Melton was getting as much work or maybe pitching in a lot of scenarios they envisioned him pitching in which then begs the question like well maybe you should just be bringing him in when the game is 000. So I I guess I see this one both ways. I’m not going to I I’ve been pretty tough on the Tigers lately. I’m not going to kill him for this because I think the thought was there and kind of made a lot of sense. Now, the results ended up being you probably didn’t use Melton as much, maybe didn’t get as much of him out of him as you could have had you just put him in the rotation. Called it good. The innings limit certainly would be a concern, but it’s a concern anyway. And now you’re fighting for your lives. And now, you know, if you make the postseason, who knows how many innings this guy is going to end up throwing uh throwing for you. So, I don’t know where I land on that one. You feel strongly about it one way or another? Well, I feel strongly that the best use of Melton was what we saw was a version of what we saw yesterday, and that’s him as a starter. Uh I also understand where it’s like you gave up assets for Paddock. You gave up, you know, assets for uh for Morton, like you almost kind of owe it to yourself and your process to let that play out. And as you said, the results kind of blow up in your face. Uh as a result of that, I get that thought process. I get the whole hold a lead thing. Uh, a lot of timing and uh, baseball regression kind of worked against that thought process, but it’s obviously clear that this is the better like way to use him. And like you said, it’s like, well, innings limit. It’s like, okay, cool. Well, he could be under the innings limit. You could miss the damn playoffs. So, uh, so yeah, sometimes I do think the concern remains like what’s this going to look like for him next year? you know, just both reaclimating to being a full-time starter, the mysteries of arm health, messing with his routine in the middle of a taxing season. Will there be a cost to pay on the back end of this? That’s worth worrying about as well. Sure. A lot of lot of lot of thinking goes into it. Sometimes sometimes you can overthink, too. Uh so that’s uh that’s something that was at least good to see cuz I think it’s just a reminder of what a real asset uh he is. All right, let’s get into um actually let’s let’s take a quick break and then we’ll we’ll discuss various scenarios and odds and numbers and maths and and all these things as we head into uh a crucial weekend in Boston. But first, a word from our sponsors. Let’s talk about Omaha Stakes. And it’s not just stakes, it’s chicken winnings, it’s smashburgers, big deli style Franks. There are a number of categories that you can hit all in one place. They’ve been doing it for a long time. They’re the best in the biz. And if you got a good fillet, life’s good, man. But you got to finish every meal with some dectable desserts, too. They have those, too, to go along with these delicious steaks. Mhm. Apple caramel tarts on the list, among many other menu items to check out. Be the hero that orders Omaha Steaks and is the most popular person in your household. So, get fired up for fall grilling with Omaha Stakes. Visit omahastak.com for 50% off sitewide during their redhot sale event and for an extra $35 off. Yeah, 35 bucks off on top of that. Use promo code FO at checkout. That’s 50% off at omahastak.com and an extra $35 off with promo code FO at checkout. See site for details. All right, coming back here. Uh the Red Sox have already kind of made their they’ve made their decision on this. they did so earlier in the week. They feel comfortable that they’re going to be playing in the postseason and they want their ace available uh for game one of a of a wild card series. So, they adjusted their rotation uh pitch crochet earlier in the week so that he can be available Tuesday. Well, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, the Tigers are obviously playing the Boston Red Sox. So, they are avoiding, if you want to call things a break, you’re avoiding Garrick Crochet. But as of now, the Tigers have uh scheduled Terk Scooel to pitch Sunday. So, we actually got this question and and uh I love it when everybody’s kind of on the same page here because I was thinking about bringing it up anyway. Uh what if you have clinched a playoff spot? You technically could still win the division. It’s still it’s still all in the open on Sunday. What do you do with Terk Scoo? like what is what is the move there for you? Yeah, save them for game one of the wild card series, right? You’re playing a three-game series. No matter what, you’re your chances of getting a buy are all are they officially out the window? They’re certainly all but out the window. Here are the Tigers playoff scenarios. This courtesy of Evan Woodbury at MI via playoffstatus.com. Um, so really, yeah, you could win the division. You could say you want a division title and then roll into the wild card game not having scubble in game one or two and then maybe a short rest situation if you make it to game three. That’s just far too risky. Maybe it could be the difference of playing at your home field and and playing at progressive field, but I think at the end of the day you’re going to want TK Scubble on the mound. So that’s certainly important to keep in mind these first two games in Boston. Tigers probably need to get one of these two games. maybe hope the Astros can lose one so you’re not faced with that scenario of using scubble on Sunday. That could still be uh pretty close to a worst case scenario other than missing the postseason alto together. Um yeah, if you get in the playoffs before Sunday, I’m holding scubble to the wildard series. Yeah. Uh obviously this is an automatic decision if uh Cleveland has already clinched the Central and you’ve got a playoff spot. There’s there’s no discussion points. Uh, I don’t think as much as like when the division is like the kind of the cool talking point, I don’t think it’s as important as having school available uh early even if it’s uh not game one. I know in this scenario would be, but like even if it’s not game one, but just having him available in one of the first two crucial games and then cannot figure out if you get to a game three situation. Uh I don’t think there’s much to discuss there. I think you have to look at if you’re trying to win a World Series, not a division, like you have to play school in the postseason. Yeah, I get there first. We all understand that, but you have to play uh school in in the postseason. This is a wild list, dude. Like, uh shout shout out to the people that bring this up. Watching on YouTube, we have all the uh the odds of of where the Tigers could match up in the postseason. They could go to Cleveland. They could go to New York. They could host Cleveland. They could go to Toronto. I didn’t bring my passport with me. That’s going to be a problem. Um, they could host Houston. They could host Boston. Like, pretty much everything is still on the table here. Cleveland, um, is probably most likely 41% odds, but this weekend could get wacky. Having basically the same percentage of hosting Cleveland as going to New York is wild to me. Having 7% chance of going to Toronto is wild to me. Don’t let that one happen. And then uh Boston or uh or or Houston going to Detroit is uh something that I just mentally hadn’t even put in there. But you know, four and 5% I guess that that that does make sense. You know, I I I almost I’ve been mentally kind of preparing for a Cleveland series in Cleveland. Uh c we could say this now because they won a game. Like is there anything like how would that how would that play in the clubhouse you think going up against Cleveland again? Like there’s a there’s a certain part of it where it’s like you don’t you you it’s just like you there’s familiar familiarity aspect of it that’s kind of like a they’re not daunting but they have had your number. you know them so well, they know you so well. It kind of reminds me of like uh like a like this could be like the new rivalry, you know what I mean? It could be like Pacers and Pistons in the early 2000s where it’s like it doesn’t really matter what the game plan is. It’s just like it’s going to be jimmies and joe’s and not X’s and O’s and and that that aspect actually does kind of intrigue me just from a pure baseball perspective having teams that’ll just like know each other and that’s how you get like real rivalries is that you play so often with real stakes. You know what I mean? Like that that’s that’s fun to me from a from a baseball fan perspective. Yeah. I mean there there are a lot of things that would be fun about it. It would be intense. I think there’s got to be a part of that team that doesn’t really want to see the Guardians again, especially at Progressive Field. That’s kind of been the Tigers house of horrors lately. That’s where things the run ended last year. That’s where things fell apart the first two games of this past series. That’s been the site of probably the two uh worst happenings of Ter Scubble’s career. Um like injuries and stuff aside. So, I don’t know. But you also can’t lose to Cleveland all the time, man. Uh, which is kind of why I think if they end up meeting it just it just makes sense that the Tigers could take two out of three. Like I can it just feels like that’s how baseball plays out sometimes. Um, so I don’t know. My gut tells me that’s that’s where it’s headed and we’ll see what happens. Yeah. And you know, no shortage of a playoff atmosphere, at least from the, you know, the TV and radio perspective in Progressive Field. You would imagine what that place that place shows out. And we saw it last year too, like how they are in the postseason. So, uh, so yeah, I mean it was it was such a the wrap it up here. It was such a relief to just see them kind of do all those things that we know they can do and and and get get some not like unexpected but like unheralded like production like from the unheralded guys production. The Jamai Jones piece. Wel Perez had been feeling it dude. Uh to to see him three for 38 during that at bat to see him get get a home run get a home run there to get off to get off to a hot start and kind of control that crowd a little bit and then like I said the bullpen hold them off kind of work as designed uh it’s so it it it’s still all there that that’s my real point it’s still all there we see it still exists and uh and now they go to Boston with a sense of purpose as opposed to like what would probably be a feeling of dread even though they would still obviously be in it. So, it also looks a lot better to be tied even though, you know, I understand the tiebreaker. It looks a lot better to be tied going into the final weekend than to be down two games. So, so there you go. Uh, anything else before we add here, Cody? No, no, that covers it up. The feels a lot better. Even if this team goes on to win the World Series, I don’t think we should forget the lessons learned from this slide. But, I don’t know. Maybe maybe we can enjoy these games again here at the last three and whatever might may or may not come after rather than it just it did it felt like dread every night there for a little bit like it was it was not fun. Let’s see if we can get back to at least having some fun. Exactly. All right. You can follow us on exportly known as Twitter Hagen Kieran_ly page tiger territory YouTube. Thank you so much to everybody who has subscribed there. If you haven’t already, please do as we get to the end of this season and potentially the postseason. Tiger terriershop.com for all your Tiger Territory merch. So for Coach Steven Hagen, I’m Kieran Steckley. Everybody have great

The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen and cohost Kieran Steckley regroup after the Tigers snapped an eight-game losing streak. What are their odds of making the postseason and what do the scenarios look like? Plus: An appreciation of Jahmai Jones, about conversation about how the Tigers have used Troy Melton and a closer look at what’s at stake this weekend against the Red Sox

Tiger Territory is the official Detroit Tigers Podcast of the Foul Territory Network.