The Miami Dolphins Will BEAT The New York Jets Today IF…

[Music] The Dolphins look to get their first win of the NFL season later tonight at home in Hard Rock against the 0 and3 New York Jets. They’re three-point favorites overunders 44 and a half. And I am going to go through how the Dolphins get their first win of the season later tonight. I am Nick Rolloff. This is Dolphins Today. And make sure you join us live. By the way, will be live for the game at 6:00 p.m. Eastern time, 5:00 p.m. Central time. So, if you see this thumbnail, it means we’re live. Click on it. Join us. Me and Coupe are going to have a blast watching and breaking down this game as the play happens. Number one, the Dolphins will win if you stay ahead of schedule. What do I mean by that? Well, the Dolphins have actually done a pretty good job of on offense having successful plays on first and second down, setting themselves up for success on third down. The average third down distance the Dolphins have had this season through three weeks is 6.7 yards. That’s the 11th best in the NFL. So, not an elite number of like, oh my god, they’re top five, but top half and they’ve been able to pay it off. Ironically enough, folks, for all the things that the Dolphins have struggled with this year, third down offense is not one of them. They are actually the number one offense on third down in all of football. They have the best conversion rate in the NFL at 54.3%. They’re fifth in EPA per play. Now, when you look at the pass to run ratio, it’s very fascinating because they have an 80% pass rate to a 20% run rate. So, yes, they’ve stayed ahead of schedule and given them mid distances to pick it up, but they’ve done it primarily through the air, which does give a nice little bump to us like, hey, good job on third down for making things happen. But another reason why is that they are incredibly effective running the football on third down when they are in that 20% rate. In a small sample size, yes, the Dolphins have the number one EPA per rush on third down at plus.85. The number one success rate on running plays on third down at 85.7, which means 85.7% of the time they are having a successful run play on third down. And they’re actually averaging 7.6 yards per play when they run the ball on third down, which is second best in the NFL, only trailing the Baltimore Ravens. So, they have been elite throwing the football, elite running the football on third down. All because they have stayed ahead of the schedule for the most part. So, once again, can you give yourself third and five and below? That’s that magic number. you give yourself third and five and shorter, this Dolphins team is going to pick it up more than half of the time. So stay ahead of schedule on offense, but you also have to stay ahead of schedule defensively. And I think this is something we don’t talk enough about. We all focus on the third down offense, but how about the third down defense? The Jets third down offense is abysmal. They have actually just converted on 28%. So damn near half of what Miami is at. They’re Jets are at 28% on third down. Miami is at 54. The league average is 39%. That puts the Jets the third worst third down conversion rate in the NFL. And fun fact about all of their third down conversions, none of them came with 10 yards or more to go. And I know it’s a very small percentage point to where a team picks up a third and 10 or longer, but the Jets having to do it zero times just tells you if you can set them up in third and long, stay ahead of schedule, force them in the third and eights, third and nines, third and tens, you will get them off the football field because they do not have a dynamic passing attack to where they can stress you vertically. But when they get to third and four, third and three, and you could bring in a Justin Fields Reed option into play, you could run Breeze Hall. That makes them a little bit more dangerous. So if you’re able to stay ahead of the sticks on an offense, give yourselves third and short, but also make sure the Jets are forced with third and longs. Most of the time, you will be on the field longer, they will be off the field longer, and that means you are likely to get a win. Who you got in this Monday Night Football game? If you think it’s the Dolphins, type MIA. Think it’s the Jets, type NYJ. I will give you my full score prediction at the end of today’s show, so stick around and stay tuned. All right, the next on our key here is Zack Cer finally returning to good play. Producer Coupe, Slippery Coupe here. Pushed the wrong graphic. We’ll get to this one, but that’s number two. Zack Cer finally shows up. If we’ll be honest here, Zack Celler got paid that massive extension before the year, before training camp, and has absolutely stunk it up. Like, if you’re walking by Zack Celler in the street, you’re having to close your nose because it’s so stanky. I mean, he’s only had 10 tackles and he has not made a play. He’s been absolutely invisible. He has no sacks, barely any pressures. He has not made a tackle for loss in the run game. He has been non-existent. And that simply can’t happen considering we all knew coming into the year that Zack Celler was your best defensive player and he is your captain yet he is not showing up. Like we showed that graphic a little early. Shout out Coupe. That his ranks in the NFL are awful. Out of the qualified defensive linemen, there are 75 total that qualify for enough snaps in total. He ranks 71st out of 75 from PFF overall. It’s terrible. And then when you go to pass rushing, there are 67 defensive linemen that qualify. He ranks 56th in pressures and 64th in the win rate. So, he’s not getting any pressure and he’s not winning any of his pass rust attempts and he’s also not stopping the run. He’s 59th in stop rate amongst qualified defensive linemen. He’s been atrocious. And that’s really been the story of the season so far. Miami through three weeks. Look at the Dline run defense. This is not pass rush. This is stopping the run. You see the run stop percentage on the right. You see the EPA rush per stop on the left. And I know it’s hard to see, so we’ll leave it up a little bit longer here. But look how many Dolphins are in the bottom left quadrant, which is the quadrant you do not want to be in because that’s EPA per play bad and no run stop percentage. You see Chop, you see Chub, you see Jaylen Phillips, you see Zack Seer, you see Kenneth Grant. They have all been bad stopping the run. So, I don’t want to put it all on Zack Cer, but I think everybody’s numbers and the entire analytics of Miami’s defense would be better if your projected top guy defensively showed up. Like I said, I don’t want to blame just Zack Celler because the entire defensive line has been bad across the board, stopping the run, rushing the quarterback, which is why this defense has been the worst in football through three weeks. I’m not going to say Zack Steeler showing up and having a big game solves everything, but it certainly wouldn’t help. All I’m asking, which I don’t think is a lot, that your defensive captain and $20 million per year defensive tackle finally shows up and wrecks a game for opposing offenses, which he’s done countless times over the past couple of years. Couple more keys coming up here in a second, but this episode is brought to you by Prize Picks. You and I make decisions every single day. Hey, well, the right decisions on prize picks can get you paid where it’s good to be right, especially during football season. It’s the best way to win cash this season. Which players going off? Which ones aren’t? Make your picks in less than 60 seconds and turn your hot takes into cash all season long on prize picks. They invented the flex play, which means you can still cash out if your lineup isn’t perfect. Double your money even if one of your picks does not hit. I make an entry for every Dolphins game, and I’m back tonight with one here. three player entry, more than Bree Hall, 54 and a half rushing yards. Talked about how bad the run defense has been for Miami. That’s why I’m going with Bree Hall more. And we know the Dolphins secondary stinks, too. So, I’ll go more than their wide receiver one Garrett Wilson receiving yards. I do think Ali Gordon scores a touchdown for Miami. So, that rounds out my threeplayer entry. Download the app today and use code CLNS to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. That’s code CLNS to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup prize fix. It’s good to be right. The third reason the Dolphins can win this game and will win is if they commit to running the football. I feel like this is something we talk about almost every week because Miami doesn’t run enough, but this is really evident against the New York Jets. Their run defense through three weeks has not been good. It ranks in the bottom half of the NFL. They give up the 23rd most rushing yards per game, the 22nd in EPA per rush. Now, they are top half in yards before contact. Like, they only allow opposing running backs to get.99 yards down the field before they make initial contact. It’s 14th in the NFL. But, they haven’t been the best tackling team through three weeks. They’re 19th in yards after contact per rush attempt allowed. like the Dolphins should be able to run the football with their dynamic duo that is Devon Han and Ali Gordon. And I just think through three weeks of football, the fact that Han and Gordon have combined for 42 carries is flatout unacceptable. Like 42 carries for 200 yards is not good enough. It’s just not. And I know they had a game in week one where they got down 17- nothing instantly and it just had to turn into a throwing the football game only. But I I need more runs, man. I do. And now it has gradually increased week after week. That week one game against the Colts, they had 10 designed runs, couple QB scramles. In week two, they had 15 designed runs. And then in week three against Buffalo, where it was a close game, the game script allowed them to continue running the ball. They did run the ball 23 times designed. They did have a couple two a scramble so it came with a 25 attempts. Point is designed runs have been increasing. I like it but we need to keep this trend continuing upward. I’d like to see us finally cross the 25 carry threshold. And that is the number. Like when you look across the league, teams that run the ball 25 times or more usually win more times than not. Why is that? Well, they get a hat and they’re able to salt away the clock. Yes, but it also just creates a more wellbalanced offense. Specifically with Miami, they’ve actually had the worst EPA per play on play action passes. Why? Because they’re not fooling anyone because the opposing defenses aren’t really that concerned about Miami running it because they don’t do it enough and they don’t do it effectively. So, against a team in New York that is suffering some injuries, which we’ll get to here in a second, I would like to see Miami run the football. 25 designed runs. That’s my number. Let’s hit it tonight. The final reason the Miami Dolphins will win is if they attack the middle of the football field. This has a lot to do with running the football as well because you run the ball up the middle more times than not. But the Dolphins do run a lot to the sideline and they do run a lot of stretches and ender rounds and tosses. But the Jets are without their linebacker too and they’re without their linebacker three. They’re missing Quincy Williams who was placed on IR earlier this week. They’re missing Marcelino McCra Bull who was placed on IR this week. So, they’re down their LB2. They’re down their LB3. That’s big time stuff there. Like having to rely on your fourth linebacker and then your practice squad guy as your third LB, not ideal. And if I was a Jets fan, I would certainly be a little bit concerned about that. But listen, Miami just controls who they play on the football field. So, let’s run the ball. Let’s get it up the middle. Make those linebackers converge. But when they do, also be ready to take shots in the middle of the football field because the Jets safeties don’t really scare me. And with backup linebackers playing alongside Sherard, who is their top linebacker, like you should be able to create mismatches with Devon Chen over the middle of the field in the passing game, with Darren Waller in his limited snap counts, with Malik Washington. Like, attack the middle of the field, attack these linebackers for New York because they are not good. And I do believe this is a key for the Dolphins. All right, it’s that time, folks. I’m going to give you my official score prediction in just one second, but you have the chance to get yours in the comments first. Predict the score of Dolphins verse Jets right now. I am two for three this year. I predicted Miami to beat the Colts in week one. That didn’t go so well. I predicted them to lose against the Patriots at home and to the Bills on the road. Got those right. Haven’t got an exact score prediction correct to this point, but I am two for three in picking Dolphins games and I’m hoping to continue that hot streak and make it three for four. I think Miami wins. Listen, this is a desperate ball club in the 305. They’re simply desperate. They are. They’re at home. Mike McDaniel knows this is a must-win game. They’ve had a week and a half to prepare for the Jets because they played on Thursday Night Football last week. The Jets have major injuries. Germaine Johnson questionable. We already talked about the two linebackers being out. Dolphins win 2721. I got confidence this week. Someone asked me my confidence level 1 to 10. I gave 7.1. I feel good. I think it’s going to hit the over. I think they cover the three points. I think it’s going to be a happy Monday night for Dolphins fans for the first time in a long time. Especially on Monday Night Football. It’s been a disaster then. Oh my. All right, that’ll do it for today’s show. Like I mentioned earlier in the show, we’ll be live later tonight. So, subscribe to the channel, join the Dolphins Today family, and when you see this thumbnail later today, click on it. Join me and Coupe for our week four Monday Night Football. Dolphins, Jets strength. [Music]

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Monday Night Football in NFL Week 4 is a must-win game for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. Visit https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/CLNS and use code CLNS and get $50 in lineups when you play your first $5 lineup! After an 0-3 start to the 2025 NFL Season, the Dolphins are looking for their first win to build some momentum heading towards the 2025 NFL trade deadline. With the Jets injury news on Justin Fields, Jarvis Brownlee Jr. and Jermaine Johnson, can the Dolphins take advantage of the opportunity?

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Dolphins Keys to victory on Monday Night Football:
1: You stay ahead of schedule
2: Zach Sieler finally shows up
3: Commit to running the football
4: Attack the middle of the field

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Zach Sieler’s 2025 NFL Season Ranks:
Overall: 42.3 (71/75)
Pressures: 2 (56/67)
Win Rate: 2.6% (64/67)
Stop Rate: 4.9% (59/78)

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Missed our recent Miami Dolphins 2025 NFL season YouTube coverage? We got you covered:
– Miami Dolphins Get BIG-TIME News Heading Into NFL Week 4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96acBA34Wic
– Miami Dolphins 2026 QB Draft Targets Ft. LaNorris Sellers, Drew Allar & Fernando Mendozahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBqJMPyeIEA

Dolphins defensive starters:
DE: Chop Robinson, Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb
DT: Zach Sieler, Kenneth Grant
LB: Jordyn Brooks, Tyrel Dodson
Secondary: Storm Duck, Jack Jones, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jason Marshall Jr.

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