Lakers & Luka resurgence, Warriors optimism, Clippers chaos, Suns/Kings | Pacific Division Preview

Lakers & Luka resurgence, Warriors optimism, Clippers chaos, Suns/Kings | Pacific Division Preview

All right, welcome to hoops tonight here at the volume. Happy Monday everybody. Hope all of you guys had a great weekend. We are finally turning our attention towards the 2025 2026 NBA season. We had a lot of fun this summer. We looked into the past. We ranked players. We argued. We debated. We had a lot of fun. But I’m very excited that we are finally turning our attention to this next season. There’s just so much interesting basketball to get into. I have so much that I’m excited to see with all of these teams. We’re going to be changing our format this year. In years past, we’ve done our season previews as a power rankings, like ranking the teams, and we typically only cover the top 15 teams in the league. This year, we’re going to do it very differently. We’re going to cover it by division, and we’re actually going to hit on all 30 teams. Now, we’re not going to hit on some of the teams towards the bottom of the league in as much detail for time sake, but we are going to touch on all 30 teams over the course of six videos covering all six divisions in the NBA. And then in the final week, uh after we get through these two weeks of season previews, in that last week before the start of the season, then we’ll go into some of the bigger details like ranking championship contenders, talking about awards, we’ll do a mail bag that week, that sort of thing. But you guys can count on Monday, Wednesday, Friday this week. And Monday, Wednesday, Friday next week, the full division season previews. Today we’re doing the Pacific Division out west. Then on Wednesday, we’ll be covering the Atlantic Division out east. Then after that, back to the Northwest Division. Those are our three divisions this week. You guys know the drill. Before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don’t miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at_jclt so you guys don’t miss show announcements. Don’t forget about our podcast feed. wherever get your podcast under hoops tonight. It’s always super helpful if you leave a rating and a review on that front. Jackson’s doing incredible work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and Tik Tok. Make sure you guys follow us over there. And then last but not least, if you want to keep getting mailbag questions into our mailbags, we’ll have a mailbag, like I said, uh the week after next. And then obviously, it’ll be a part of our regular coverage throughout the season. Just make sure you drop those questions in the full episodes in the YouTube comments. Put mailbag and a colon. That’s how I can find it in the mix. and we’ll get to those in our next mailbag here in a couple of weeks. All right, let’s talk some basketball. So, the first team out in the Pacific Division that we’re covering today, the Los Angeles Lakers, the team in the NBA that I currently root for. A quick little offseason recap, they lost Dorian Finny Smith, Jordan Goodwin, who I really liked and Phoenix fans will remember and they will be enjoying watching this year, as well as Shake Milton. They added DeAndre Aton, Jake Laravia, who I like. He can shoot the ball and do some stuff off the bounce. a decent athlete. I think he could play well off of Luca. And then Marcus Smart, a player who has dealt with sign significant injury concerns over the last couple of years. Easily the biggest piece of news from this summer for Lakers fans is the transformation of Luca Donuch. And like I can’t put this any more clearly because I I know I got into a lot of arguments with people surrounding player rankings, but the player from last year is not the player that Luca Donuch was in his entire career leading up to that. And it is not the player I expect to see this season. To put it very simply, Luca declined in several key areas last year as a byproduct of his poor conditioning. He had another brutal defensive showing against Minnesota. He appeared to suffer several drop offs on offense. Just to give you guys some ideas, he shot 38% on pullup twos last year with the Lakers. He was 47% the year prior in Dallas. He shot 36% on floaters with the Lakers, 54% the previous year with Dallas. He shot 65% at the rim with the Lakers, which is good. But Luca the year prior in Dallas shot 71% at the rim. So in other words, Luca was a shell of himself last year. Easily the biggest piece of information and optimism for Lakers fans should be Luca’s back. He looked fantastic at Euro Basket. He looked thinner but still strong. He looked quicker and more explosive. and his percentages in those key areas that I just listed, they skyrocketed back to where they were, even above where they were his last year in Dallas, albeit in a sevename sample size, but an encouraging sign nonetheless. So, for instance, in Euro Basket in those seven games, 54% on pull-up twos, matching his previous year in Dallas, 15 for 28 from the field, 67% on floaters, albeit small sample, four for six, and 73% at the rim. So, more like what we would expect to see from Luca. I think that’s an encouraging sign. The Lakers getting not just a better version of Luca, but perhaps the best version of Luca we’ve seen to this point would essentially amount to a massive influx of talent for this team. The Luca that was leading the Lakers last year was not a top tier superstar. He was a second tier superstar. The Luca that we can expect this year, if he stays healthy, is a top tier superstar. in my opinion, the second best player in the league. I’ve also long viewed Luca as a smart defender. He has his physical limitations, but he’s usually in the right spot. And in that last year in Dallas in that playoff run, he was very good off the ball. It was the onball stuff against Boston that was a problem. And then obviously overweight Luca was a disaster against Minnesota. So, if Luca in peak shape can be a more resilient onball defender, that would also going go a long way towards helping him avoid those pitfalls. I talked about this concept when we were talking about Luca’s conditioning a few weeks back, but it’s about the idea of flattening out drives. So, for instance, we know Luca is going to be fine off the ball. He’s great defensive rebounder. He can cover ground and be in the right spot in helpside rotations, right? But in terms of containing the basketball, it’s just about flattening out drives. If you give up clean straight line dribble penetration, it is very difficult to cover for with your back four defenders. But if you can flatten the drive, meaning instead of going straight at the rim, having to go around you because you’re beating him to a spot and forcing him to take a weird angle to get around you. If you do that, you can plan for it and you have a chance to succeed defensively. So, that’s going to be a big part of it for him with his improved conditioning. Doesn’t need to be DaVon Mitchell. There are lots of limited offensive players that have found roles on championship teams or limited defensive players, I should say. But in order for him to do that, he’s got to be able to flatten out drives when he defends and switches, especially since JJ Reic in all likelihood is going to lean on a lot more switching like he usually does. I’m very excited to watch this rejuvenated version of Luca. I think he’s the only player in the league that has the potential to close the gap with Nicole Joic in the short term. There’s obviously some guys in the long term who could potentially do it, but in the short term, like this season, I think he’s the one guy who has the potential to really get close to where Nicole Joic is because he’s the only other player in the league who can be an apex scorer and an apex playmaker. He’s the only other guy other than Joic. That’s why I had him at number two in my player rankings for the second year in a row. The second exciting piece of news for Lakers fans is the DeAndre Aton signing. I’ve never been a big DeAndre Aton fan, and that even goes back to his days with the Arizona Wildcats. Remember, I’m from Tucson. His inconsistent motor and his personality just drive me crazy. But in theory, this is the ideal circumstance for him to have a career year. For starters, he’s the perfect pick and roll partner for Luca Donuch. He’s a very good vertical spacer with good hands who can finish very well on the roll in a variety of ways. He shot 58% from the field on rolls last year. He only took four pick and pop threes, but he made three of them. It was like the only place he shot well from three. He shot 74% at the rim overall and he had 71 dunks. He can finish lobs. He can shoot layups better than most bigs. And he’s a very good short roll scorer because he has a deadly mid-range jump shot. He took 74 mid-range jump shots last year and made 55.4% of them. That’s 1.11 points per shot, which is very efficient. He’s also a good short- range scorer. He was 54% on floaters and hooks last year, 95 attempts. So, I think he’s a very high level role man that’s going to unlock a lot of things in a pick and roll partnership with Luca. Now, the two things to keep an eye on with Aiden on offense when he’s on the floor are one, his playmaking, and two, his screening. So, with his playmaking for his career, he has more turnovers than assists. So, when he catches on the short roll, let’s say Luca ball screen with Aiden, big shows up high or blitzes. Luca drops it over the top. Aton catches around the foul line and he turns and faces and the defense rotates to him. Will he be able to make the passing reads out of that? That’s going to be a big swing factor for the Lakers. And then the second piece is screening. He doesn’t make as much contact on his screens as he probably should. But I’m more worried about this with LeBron and Austin, guys who kind of struggle to beat guys off the dribble because Luca has an insane gift for getting past his man even without screen. So I think if he can stay healthy, him and Luca will be one of the most deadly pick and roll partnerships in the league, if not the most deadly. I am not very optimistic about DeAndre Aton’s defense. He had stretches in his career where he’s been solid in pick and roll and he had some admirable possessions in the 2021 finals against Giannis, although ultimately he lost that battle. But he’s been a lot more bad than good in his career on that end of the floor. And last year he was really bad. When I was watching all the film earlier this summer when they signed him, Portland mainly had him sit way back in like a comically deep drop coverage way back in the paint. JJ is almost certainly going to ask him to be a lot more active and a lot more mobile in his ball screen coverages and probably to do more switching, right? On the one hand, it won’t be hard for him to be better than Jackson Hayes was. So, he’s certainly an upgrade, but I’m not expecting DeAndre Aton to anchor an elite defense or anything along those lines. He will definitely help with rebounding though, and I actually think the combination of Luca Donic with LeBron and DeAndre Aton makes for a formidable defensive rebounding group. My biggest worry with Eightton is just his health and his overall focus. He’s failed to play in 60 games in three of the last four years. He played in just 95 games total in the last two seasons combined. And he’s going to be on a team with several Apex competitors, guys chirping at him and being on his ass every day about his focus. I’m just curious to see how he handles that mentally. But the reason why I think it’s set up well for Aton to have a career year is the fact that he’s in a contract year. and an especially pivotal one. We know that DeAndre Aton is very money motivated. He’s basically straight up come out and told us that at several points in his career. This season is the biggest turning point of his career financially. If he struggles or if he can’t stay healthy, he’ll probably be stuck on exceptions for the rest of his career. Mid-level exceptions, by annual exceptions, veteran minimum exceptions. if he goes out and kicks ass, he could sign a four-year 100 million dollar deal this summer, potentially even higher depending on how much ass he kicks, right? So, I think in the range of possible outcomes, as long as his body holds up, the Lakers should get the best possible version of Aton because Aiden wants money and he needs to be good this year to get his money. With Marcus Smart, I literally have no idea what to expect. He played in a grand total of 54 games in the last two seasons combined. So, I think going into the season, just expecting him to play 70 games would be foolish. If he’s healthy, he’s exactly what the Lakers need. He’s an excellent point of attack defender that allows the Lakers to run traditional pick and roll coverages, and he’s a versatile offensive player that can thrive off of the advantages that Luca can create. But at this point, I have a really hard time generating any optimism surrounding Smart until he actually shows he can stay on the court. That’s really all I’m going to say about him for right now. Looking at the big picture, I think this Lakers team is going to be a top three offense if they can stay healthy. Luca is the second best offensive player in the league, and I think he’s going to have the best season of his career this year. They have tons of play finishing and ball handling. I think a key challenge for JJ Reic will be getting the Lakers to play with pace. LeBron and Luca both have a tendency to slow the game down and play deep into the shot clock. I think that would be a waste of this team’s strengths. This is not a team that has a bunch of play finishers. They do have play finishers, but they have guys that can put the ball on the floor and make plays with the ball. So, if you’re throwing your first kick out pass with like seven seconds on the shot clock, you don’t have much time to capitalize on all your aggregate offensive talent. You want Luca or LeBron to be making that first pass with like 12 or 13 seconds on the shot clock so that you have time for multiple attacks. Everyone can stay involved and you can break the defense down incrementally with what your strength is, which is your aggregate offensive skill. This was a concept I actually talked about a lot. If you guys remember correctly, after the 2024 finals, when the Mavs lost, they made several moves that summer that geared more towards ball handling, including making a a simple shift like going from Derrick Jones Jr. who’s more of a DN3 kind of guy to a Naji Marshall who is a guy who can put the ball on the floor more and do some more things on the bounce, right? And I talked after that that it made more sense for them to stop playing so slow and deliberate and to play faster because they had more ball handling off of Luca. I think this group would very similarly benefit from that kind of style. If they do and a couple of specific things happen like Aton stays healthy, LeBron stays healthy, Austin Reeves improves as a catch-and shoot player, which I think he will, I think this Lakers team can crack a 120 offensive rating. That’s something that I have my eye on. As for the defense, I don’t see how they could break the top 10 without a trade. Their best point of attack defenders at this point are Marcus Smart, who can’t stay healthy, and Jared Vanderbilt, who struggles to stay on the floor because he can’t do anything on offense. They have a mediocre to bad defensive anchor at center. They have a 40-year-old who’s their low man who likes to take regular season nights off on defense, and Austin and Luca are both inferior athletes. So, to me, it seems more likely than not that they’re a bottom 10 defense this year, somewhere in that like 21 to 23 range. But their pathway to title contention lies in getting from that what I expect to be in the low 20s on defense to that like 12 to 15 range. So how do they do that? How does this Lakers team become a mediocre to slightly above average defense? Starts with scheme versatility. So if you get quality seasons out of Marcus Smart and Jared Vanderbilt. So if like Marcus Smart is just healthy and if Jared Vanderbilt gets better at corner threes or better at little floaters in the lane or whatever it is he needs to be more useful on offense, that allows you to run traditional coverages as well as the switching scheme that JJ likes to lean on. If they then mix in some zone, which as we saw with Denver, zone can cause problems for OKC and probably should be in your bag if you’re playing in the Western Conference. If they get that kind of scheme versatility, that could help. And then just overall a commitment to the details down the roster. They have a ceiling if they hit all those notes of somewhere in that 12 to 15 best defense. If they get into that range, that’s where I would start to take them seriously as a contender. But I’m pretty pessimistic about that. Right now, I view the Lakers as a solid second tier contender. They have a larger range of outcomes in both directions than most of these teams, right? like they have bad injury luck. Like if LeBron at 40, 41 gets hurt, Fatton gets hurt, Marcus Mark gets hurt, Luca sometimes can miss 15, 20 games. If that sort of thing happens, they could quickly drop into the playin, which is obviously unbecoming of a team that we’d look at as a second tier contender. But if LeBron is healthy and stays at that second team allNBA level and Marcus Smart returns to like 90% of the player he was before injury and if Luca plays like an MVP and you get 70 games out of DeAndre Aton, I think they could get the three seed again. So they have like a pretty wide range of outcomes. My hope as a Lakers fan is that they make some sort of aggressive deal. I really really like the idea of Andrew Wiggins in a Lakers jersey. I think Wiggins could solve their two biggest issues. a starting caliber three that can guard the opponent’s best player and just an overall increase in athleticism for a team that lacks athleticism. If they got Wiggins and they hit all those other notes I just listed, I think they could actually be as good as Denver or Oklahoma City. It’s just both of those outcomes I view as seriously unlikely. So, I think they’re a textbook second tier contender. There’s a pathway, but it’s an unlikely one at this point. Next team, the Los Angeles Clippers. 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Download the Hard Rock Bet app today and make your first deposit. Offseason recap, they lost air coffee, Drew Eubanks, Norman Powell, and Ben Simmons. And they added Bradley Beal, John Collins, Brook Lopez, and Chris Paul. A lot of really nice talent upgrades there. Like Norman Powell is better than Bradley Beal at a few key things, but Brad will be able to scale up his ball handling when Kawhai is out of the lineup for rest or for injury. That gives him some unique value within this particular Clippers team. John Collins is generally an underrated player because when he went to Utah, he learned how to shoot. So now he’s like a real weapon on offense who can pick and pop and pick and roll. I think he’s going to be an excellent fit with James Harden and Chris Paul. Brook Lopez is a much better backup center than Drew Eubanks and he gives you a specific size upgrade for the Jokic matchup. And CP3 is a backup. Like if he’s not starting for you, if CP3 is a backup, that’s as good an option as you’ll find in the league. So a lot of really nice talent upgrades there for the Clippers. In other words, the Clippers have their issues in their top end talent, which we’ll discuss in a minute, but they have unquestionably improved their roster and balanced it in some key ways that give them more upset potential against teams like Denver and Oklahoma City. The first and most exciting part of this is the depth of offensive talent. Because of the addition of Chris Paul, you can legitimately count on 48 minutes of topend pick and roll shot creation. Chris had his issues when he was heavily featured like in his starting role at this point in his career, but he is still one of the very best pick and roll players in the league. Last year with the Spurs, and again, that’s a limited offensive team. He generated 1.08 points per pick and roll, including passes on 892 reps out of the 27 players who logged at least 750 in the NBA. That ranked eighth. That’s really high on that list. And then obviously James Harden is your foundation in that area as a pick and roll shot creator, but you also have a plethora of pick and roll screening options now. Like it’s not just Zubots anymore. You have John Collins and Brook Lopez to add to the mix. John Collins tends to roll more than pop out of ball screens. At least that’s what he did in Utah. Uh but a big part of that too stems with the way that roster is put together. I think he’ll do most of his work as a vertical spacer on this team, like cutting along the baseline and rolling out of screens. but he also shot 40% on pick and pop threes last year and he was 43% overall on unguarded catch and shoot threes. So I think he provides an interesting screening option. And then Brook Lopez on massive volume. He shot 114 pick and pop threes last year. Made 38% of them. And when he rolled into twos he shot 61%. He was still like 1.195 points per roll man possession which was one of the better marks in the league. like Brooke is still a very very useful pick and roll partner for one of those handlers. And so all game long when you play the Clippers, you’re going to be dealing with devastating twoman game duos. And by the way, I haven’t even mentioned Kawhi Leonard, who’s the best player on the team, or Bradley Beal, who obviously brings dynamic ball handling to the table. So, for a team that was the third best defense in the NBA last year, that was built on the foundation of Zubat’s rim protection and the depth of perimeter defenders, but that had some offensive limitations, these offensive upgrades are really exciting if you’re a Clippers fan. I think this team has an enormous margin for error as currently constructed. And so because of that, if I had to pick one team that I think is most likely to get the three seed in this case with Houston losing Fred Van Vleet, I actually think Houston kind of slips into that second tier of contenders. We’ll talk about that more when we talk about Houston. But with Houston kind of dropping off with that injury, I if I had to pick one team to finish with the third seed behind Oklahoma City and Denver, I think I’d pick the Clippers. They have one of the best coaches in the league, a deep, versatile roster built by one of the smartest front offices in the league, and they’re built to withstand injuries because they have depth at all the key position groups. Lots of shot creation talent, lots of defensive talent. I think it’s highly likely that the Clippers finished top 10 in both offense and defense this year. So Jason, all these things you’re saying seem like things you would say about a top tier contender, but you don’t have them as a top tier contender. Why is that? And it really just comes down to Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. James, as we’ve discussed so many times over the years, is a player I have enormous respect for, especially in the regular season context. Like I think he’s still one of the better floor raising offensive engines in the entire NBA. He’s durable. He basically guarantees you a competitive offense in the regular season. I think he’s worth every penny on his contract, but he routinely falls apart and becomes borderline ineffective when he gets to high leverage playoff situations. And this was a problem when he was a younger and more explosive version of himself. Now, the insurance against that used to be that if you got Kawhi Leonard to the postseason, he was robot Kawhai, who was a top five player in the league, who could go toe-to-toe with any star in the NBA and really take over in those spots and give you the margin for error to withstand James Harden’s shortcomings. But we had that series against Denver last year and it was the first time that healthy Kawhai didn’t look like a top tier guy. And that’s what’s concerning, especially since Denver defensively is not exactly what you would call a juggernaut. Although they were a better playoff defense than you would have expected last year. They finally got him to the playoffs ready to go and healthy and he just looked like a second tier guy. He had that one insane game in game two where he made every shot and walked the Nuggets down the stretch. But outside of that game, his volume was low, his efficiency was low. All by superstar standards, I mean, and he struggled with double teams. Like really struggled with double teams. That’s a huge concern because again, in all your previous playoff runs, if Kawhi was out there and if he was healthy, you just felt like he was one of the apex stars in the NBA who could out outplay anybody. And that just doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. And so if those days are gone and James Harden is your number two, that’s more or less a death sentence against either of the top teams like Denver or Oklahoma City. And it could easily get you beat against any of the second tier teams. And like, yeah, well, you came very close to beating Denver last year. Well, you got your ass kicked in game seven. Okay. A couple of the shots went against you early in the series. You have the Aaron Gordon gamewinner. Game one’s a close game, right? But if you really dig into it, Denver’s improvements, the Clippers made some nice improvements. Denver’s improvements were more substantial. They added depth like you did, but they also substantially upgraded a starting role. It’s the best version of a team that Nicole Joic has had. They’ll be the best player with the better team in that series. Oklahoma City, they’re going to be key improvements from guys like Jaylen Williams and guys like Chad Homer. They’re going to be better, right? So, like the way I look at it with Kawhi Leonard and James Harden being at this phase in their careers, it just feels improbable to me that they could beat the top teams and even some problems that could present themselves against the second tier teams. So, like again, the Clippers to me, I’m a big fan of their basketball organization. Like, again, I I’m not talking about their ownership group who may or may not be staring down the barrel of some significant punishment for cheating, but their basketball ops. I’m just a huge fan. I think they represent excellence in modern basketball. I love everything about their philosophy and their approach to team building, but ultimately their top end talent just isn’t good enough to push them past the top tier or into the top tier of championship contenders. Next, the Golden State Warriors. Important to disclose here, at the time of this recording, the Warriors have not yet resolved the Jonathan Kaminga saga. They only have nine players on the roster at this point. We will obviously have an instant reaction video when that whatever happens there finally goes down and it’s possible they still pull off a trade. We’ll see. But for the purposes of this video, we’re going to proceed as though Jonathan Kaminga resigns with the Warriors. It feels like the most likely outcome at this point. And as part of this, we’re going to proceed as though the reported the reported signings take place. So, we’re going to cover them in this segment as though Kaminga is a warrior, Horford’s a warrior, DeAnthony Melton’s a warrior, Gary Payeyton’s a warrior, Seth Curry is a warrior. That’s what we’re going to be proceeding with in this case. It is still possible that there’s a trade, right? I went over last week that I think they should have taken the Malik Monk package. It would have cost the Warriors Jonathan Kaminga and Buddy Heield, but it would have brought back a really nice offensive guard in Malik Monk, who I think is much better than Buddy Heield. And he’s like a rough approximation of what Jordan Pool was for this team in the title run. And you’d also get a future protected first round pick that could help you make another trade down the line to bolster the team. And if you’re concerned about losing Buddy Heield, not only is Malik Monk better than him, but if you’re getting Seth Curry at a minimum contract, that basically replaces that bench shooting role anyway. But either way, it looks like that’s unlikely to happen at this point. So, the only guy they like officially lost is Kavon Looney, who signed with New Orleans. Theoretically, they could fill out the back end of the roster with the same guys that they had last year, guys like Gary Payne or like Pat Spencer. But again, in reality, technically at this point, they only have nine players under contract. So, some of this is in flux. But assume they assuming they retain Kaminga and they get the other guys I mentioned the roster would more or less look like Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kaminga, Moses Moody, Buddy Heield, Brandon Pajki, Trace Jackson Davis, Ge Santos, Quinton Post, Al Horford, DeAnthony Melton, Seth Curry, and Gary Payeyton. That’s a really good team. You have Steph Curry, who I still view as the third best offensive player in the entire NBA, even at age 37. Last year, when Steph was on the floor, if you remove garbage time, which is what cleaning the glass does, the Warriors logged a 120 offensive rating when Steph was on the floor. That was one of the single most impressive statistics I saw all of last season. That roster was utterly devoid of offensive talent and Steph dragged them to a 120 offensive rating. I’m just a massive believer in Steph as an offensive engine. It’s why I had him all the way up at six in my player rankings. It just his ability to consistently generate openings that even limited NBA players can capitalize on for points and to drag these limited lineups to the scoring efficiency that he did. I just found it remarkable. Jimmy Butler doesn’t completely solve their roster’s limitations, but he does help in several key ways. He was a wonderful fit on the floor with Steph as a second side creator and as a connective playmaker. When Steph, Jimmy, and Draymond were on the floor together last year. In 950 possessions, they logged a 122 offensive rating, which is obviously an insane number. but he also helped with controlling the pace with his ability to get to the foul line and he also gave them a higher offensive ceiling when he was anchoring those units when Steph was off the floor. I still view Draymond as one of the best defensive anchors in the NBA. The Warriors were the top defense in the league post all-star break last year. You’re not doing that without Draymond. I think Horford is a dream fit with this team. I love the idea of him alongside Draymond and Jimmy in the front court as like a high IQ switching defensive scheme where the three of those dudes are just talking to each other and blowing plays up, getting in front of the action. I think those three could be insanely good together on that end. And then Horford provides a real offensive threat at the five. He’s a pick and pop big. He can hit above the break threes, which is key for the center position. And he also can drive closeouts and like make drive and kick plays. He has a ton of driving kick experience and read and react experience with Boston. and he can beat switches. Like if he gets a small on him, you can throw it to him in the post and he can hit a little left shoulder hook and just quickly turn that into points. The Warriors also have center depth with Quinton Post and Trace Jackson Davis, so they can manage Horford’s minutes throughout the year depending on how his body is feeling. I just love the fit and I can’t wait to watch him in Golden State. Anthony Melton is obviously a big health question mark, but he looked like a perfect fit in the system last year before getting hurt. So much so that it felt like it was a given that he would return to Golden State when he got healthy. and it looks like he probably will. Seth Curry and Buddy Heield provide real shooting off the bench. Brandon Pajki and Moses Moody provide that youthful exuberance and athleticism on the perimeter. Like I think we could see both of them starting at various points during the season depending on how often Steve Ker decides to start Al Horford. I think Moses Moody will improve as a shooter after he had a rough end of the season on that end. I think he just knows that’s his biggest point of emphasis. Brandon Pajky had several huge breakout games towards the end of last year. He averaged 16-6 over the final 23 games of the regular season and shot 43% from three on six attempts per game over that stretch. He fell off in the postseason, but it does feel like Pods is like close to really settling in as a pro. And he’s like the quintessential Steve Kerr player because he defends and he rebounds and he makes good read and react decisions in their offense. And like all of this doesn’t even count Jonathan Kaminga who I don’t care how you feel about how he fits. He’s just an option. He gives you optionality there. I prefer him on another team with an asset return for Golden State, but even in this context of this version of the team, he’ll be able to help in some way, at least in some capacity, even if it’s just depth during the regular season. And then Steve Kerr always seems to get a lot out of the back end of the roster because this team has such a strong basketball culture. They always look for the right kind of guys. Steve teaches them to play basketball the right way. Again, they clearly don’t have the firepower of like Oklahoma City or Denver, but I view them as a solid second tier contender. The potential upside lies in a potential trade down the line and with Steph Curry. If Steph can get back to that guy who can average 27 points per game for an entire playoff run, that’s the type of guy with this group that I think could have some real championship potential. Steph had really big nights in the postseason last year, but he also had nights where he struggled to score. I think him getting back up to that high volume like he showed towards the tail end of the season is a key swing factor for the Warriors as well. Okay, we’re going to go much quicker on these last two teams. First, the Sacramento Kings. They lost Markeel Folultz, Jake Laravia, Trey Lyles, Jonas Valenunis, and they added Drew Eubank, Dario Sarich, Dennis Schroeder, and their first round pick, Nick Clifford, who projects to eventually be a two-way uh wing in the league. I do love Dennis Schroeder. I know he has a reputation of being like an international killer, and yes, he was awesome in Euro Basket, but I just think he’s a really good NBA player. I think he’s about as good an option for like a backup guard or like sixth starter as you can find in the league. He’s a competitive mfer. He always plays hard on both ends of the floor and he has real skills as a primary shot creator. Do I think the Kings should have given him 45 million or whatever they gave him? Probably not. But I am a big fan of him as a basketball player. The Kings are essentially a reboot of the Chicago Bulls from two years ago, but with a better center, meaning they’re a team that has an already defined ceiling. And that showed again last year. To give you an idea, last uh their last year in Chicago in 2024, we talked about this a lot on the show. They had a full season of really good health. If I remember correctly, D Rozan, Lavine, and Vu all averaged like 75 games played that year. So, they were all basically together for the majority of the season. They had this massive sample size and they had a negative net rating in the inferior Eastern Conference. So are you surprised that last year to end the year with Sacramento that Demar D Rozan, Zack Lavine and Deanna Sabonis in 1121 possessions logged a negative 3.5 net rating according to Cleaning the Glass? No, I’m not surprised by that. So in other words, this team is destined to battle for the ninth or 10th seed all season long. If you’re a Kings fan, you’re just clinging to the potential upside of guys like Devin Carter and Keegan Murray. And you should probably just starting to look to move guys like Keon Ellis and Malik Monk for picks because it’s time to start looking towards the future. Lastly for today, the Phoenix Suns. Quick offseason recap. They lost Brad Beal, Bull, Kevin Durant, Tyus Jones, and Mason Plumbley. They added Dylan Brooks, Jordan Goodwin, who I really like and that Suns fans will remember. I enjoyed rooting for him with the Lakers last year. Jaylen Green from Houston in the Kevin Durant trade. Come on Malawatch in the lottery, a rim protected a rim protecting rim running center. And Mark Williams, the famous Hornets center that almost became a Laker. Mark is a super highle role man and I think he’ll kill alongside Devin Booker in two-man game on offense, but he’s got major health question marks and he’s like an abysmal defender. So something to keep in mind. I don’t think the Suns are going anywhere by any means this year, but I do expect them to be a feisty team, and I would not be shocked if they won 35 games or so, and I think they’re going to be one of my favorite league pass teams this year. The reason why stems from my core basketball beliefs. Ryan Dunn and Dylan Brooks are going to make life hell for opposing stars on any given night. Especially if they lean into Kmon Malawatch as a rim protector. that combination of like aggressive physical defense with rim protection on the backside that just gives you a really high defensive floor. And then on the other end of the floor, I wouldn’t exactly call Devin Booker like an elite top end offensive engine, but I do think he’s an underrated passer, a very good pick and roll player, and a guy that gives you a pretty high offensive floor. And say what you want about Jaylen Green, that dude plays in every single game, and he can have some explosive scoring nights. He had 32 games last year with at least 25 points. They’re going to have games where Jaylen Green has it going and Devin Booker is being Devin Booker and Brooks and Dunn are guarding dudes like crazy, which I love that nickname by the way. And the Suns are going to win those games even against really good teams. So again, their absolute ceiling is probably the 10th seed and it’s more likely than not that they’ll miss the playoffs entirely. But I do think the Suns fans will enjoy watching and rooting for this team. I think they’ll have some really impressive wins this year. I think they’ll play a fun brand of basketball and again, I think they’ll be one of my favorite league pass teams this year. All right, guys. That’s all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. We’ll be back on Wednesday to cover the uh the Atlantic division out in the Eastern Conference. Lots of interesting stuff to get into there. I will see you guys then.

Jason gives his full preview of the Pacific Division for the 2025/26 NBA season including Luka Doncic, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and the Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leoanrd and the Los Angeles Clippers, Devin Booker and the Phoenix suns, and the Sacramento Kings.

Timeline
0:00 – Start
2:20 – Lakers
18:15 – Clippers
26:00 – Warriors
32:55 – Kings
34:45 – Suns

All lines provided by @hardrockbet

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