40 Man Roster Breakdown: Miami Marlins Outfielders
Evaluating the Marlins outfield situation for 2026 is more complicated than you think it might be. You are Locked on Marlins, your daily podcast on the Miami Marlins, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked On Marlins. I’m your host Jeremiah Guyger. I’m a diehard Marlins fan and I’ve podcasted about the team for the last four seasons. You can find me on Twitter, Jeremiah Guyer 2, and thank you for making Lockdown Marlins your first listen of the day. It’s part of the Locked On podcast network, which is your team every day. Make sure you’re subscribed to the YouTube channel. Let me know your thoughts in the comments section. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. download the app today. The Marlins outfield situation is complicated and I’ve been doing four uh the the 40man roster breakdown by position groups. So, we started with the bullpen, we went to infield, and now we’re going outfield. And the rotation is going to come up later on in a different episode. The outfield might be the most complicated one to evaluate right alongside the starting rotation because I think the Marlins rotation depth is stacked which is a good thing. It’s a good problem to have. But the Marlins outfield all of a sudden there’s a lot of options that the organization can go with. So, we’re going to break it all down and we’re going to evaluate these players and give a very, very early projection on who I think the starting three, left, center, and right are going to be on opening day. Assuming that there’s no major additions, and I don’t think there should be a major addition for the outfield. I don’t think the Marlins need it. Let’s start with the locks. The locks for for this team, Kyle Sters and Jacob Marcy. And I could do an entire show about Kyle Sters and how how good this guy is. And it’s disappointing because he finished the season on the injured list. It looked like he was going to come back for a minute. He was starting a rehab assignment and he re he reagravated his oblique and ultimately finished the season. You know, they they shelved him. You know, there’s no there’s no rush to come back, get healthy cuz we need you healthy in 2026 if we want to compete. No problems, no qualms with that at all. He only played in 117 games, accumulated 3.6 war, batting average 288. He slugged 544 and an OPS of 912, 25 bombs, 21 doubles, 73 RBI’s, was named an allstar for the first time in in his career. He was the real deal. There’s there’s no doubt in my mind that Kyle Sters is the best offensive piece that the Marlins have on their roster. And he truly is somebody special that is it’s a example of hard work and dedication and never giving up. He was written off. Written off. Cast away. Nobody expected or in their wildest dreams thought that he could achieve this type of success at the major league level, especially after the disaster of a season he had in 2024 where he came over in the Trevor Rogers trade and looked completely lost at the plate. Couldn’t hit a fast ball to save his life. Well, fast forward one off season later, you go into spring training, you notice he has a better eye at the plate. He’s drawing walks. Now, the base hits weren’t coming in grapefruit league action, but he did enough. The the Marlins saw enough of him a and what he brought to the table that as an organization, they named him to the to the opening day roster. A lot of fans were were surprised by that and Sters was incredible. Kyle Sters is somebody who I expect to be another another name to in a loaded National League outfield to be in the running for an all-star selection. Whether that’s via the fan vote or he’s the Marlins representative. And for the record, I do think that the Marlins in 2026 are going to have multiple allstars. And they and they they probably will have multiple allstars assuming these guys that that I’m talking about live up to the hype, live up to expectations because I’m going to expect big things from Sters. I’m going to expect big things from Jacob Marcy, who I also think can be an all-star. Sour’s walk rate increased from 6.2% to 10.5% and he cut his strikeout rate by 8%. So the strikeout rate is still not great, but 27% is a lot better than 35%. The whiffs are always going to be there. He’s going to strike out. It’s what happens. But he’s a power threat and he he can hit the fast ball. He he he can hit the fast ball and that’s the number one thing you need to do if you’re a hitter at the major league level. If you can’t hit the fast ball, you’re toast. You’re absolutely toast. And there’s there’s not much that you can really do with that with that type of profile for a player that is helpless against velocity. Expecting big things from from Sour. Lock him in. He’s a huge part of this future. The other player, Jacob Marcy. Marcy has been re a revelation for this team. Acquired from the San Diego Padres’s in 2024. He starts out in AAA. He was named the the Marlins AAA MVP by the by the organization, but he outplayed his numbers in in the major leagues. um he outplayed his numbers in the minor leagues while he was here in Miami in the major leagues and is somebody that I think can can only get better if he continues the trajectory he’s on and gets back to more of what he can truly be and what his profile really is. And what I mean by that, Jacob Marcy’s number one impressive, his most impressive trait when he’s when he’s in the box is his eye. He He’s somebody that draws his walks. And you saw that throughout the first two, three weeks of the season. He was drawing his walks at an elite clip, Juan Stoodtoesque, and then it slowly tailed off. He finished the year with a 9.4% walk rate. Now, a very manageable 20 20.5% strikeout rate. Still an elite chase rate. He doesn’t chase. He’s not going to offer at bad pitches. But if he can get back to the the walk numbers that he posted in the minor leagues, for example, a season ago, a 15% walk rate, a 16% walk rate in AAA this season, then he he’s just going to continue to be elite. I think he’s a five tool player. finishes the year 292, five bombs, a he an ops of 841, stole 14 bags, and this is only in 234 play appearances. Remember, Marcy didn’t get called up until August. I mean, he spent April, May, June, July in the minor leagues. If the Marlins called him up a month earlier, does this team sneak into the playoffs? Maybe. I don’t know. but he’s a lock for for the Marlins center field position in 2026. I can’t wait to see what he does for an encore. And the last thing about I’ll say about Marcy in this segment, go take a look at his numbers against breaking balls and offspe pitches. I’ll give you I I’ll give you them right now. So, I’ll save you the work. He hit 328 against breaking balls and he hit 333 against offsp speed. Slugged 523 against breaking balls. Crushes them. And he more than held his own against the fast ball. Hit 257, slugged 450. But if you’re that elite at noticing and and staying with sliders, staying on the change up, you know, getting the barrel to to the to the ball on on a on a good downer curve ball, then you’re going to have a lot of success in this league. So, that’s one of the most encouraging parts of his game is his ability to crush major league offspe secondary pitches. So, Jacob Marcy, Kyle Sters, I think both of whom both those guys can be allstars. I think Stowers, the sky’s the limit for that guy. Same with Marcy. Cannot wait to see their season in 2026. And the Marlins are going to need it. Now, coming up next, I’m going to talk about the rest of the outfielders on the 40man roster and why I think it’s super complicated as to where these guys are going to fit in and the tough decisions the organization is going to have to make. Remember, you only have three starting positions in the outfield. And right now, I feel like there’s there’s more than three, way more than three capable outfielders who can take that role. That’s coming up right after this. You’ve probably seen a million ads for hair growth products and thought, “Yeah, that actually works.” There are so many products out there and it’s hard to know which ones are actually going to do anything. And that’s why you should give Neutrifall a closer look. Neutrifall is the number one dermatologist recommended hair growth supplement brand. It’s trusted by over one and a half million people. And now Neutrfal is the official hair growth partner of Major League Baseball. 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I know we just wrapped up the 2025 season, but we have a big off season, an important off season. Plenty to talk about. So, in the first segment, I talked about Kyle Sters and Jacob Marcy. Those guys are your best two outfielders. I firmly believe that. I think the sky’s is the limit for the both of them. They can both be allstars, MVP candidates. They’re great. Now, where does that third position factor? And it’s going to be a corner spot either left or right because K because Marcy has center locked up. And then you have Kyle Sourers who who’s going to be your left fielder, but he can also play right field. I I would think though because he spent the majority of the season in left, played 76 games in left and then just 42 in right. For the sake of this argument, Marcy’s your center fielder and Stard is your left fielder. Who’s going to be your right fielder? So, we’re continuing this 40man roster breakdown. Here are the options. Griffin Conine, Araberto Hernandez, Troy Johnston, Victor Mesa Jr., Dane Meyers, and Joey Wemer. Also, Kemp Alderman is in AAA, but currently not on the 40man roster. So, we’re we’re just focusing on guys currently on the 40man. Of course, this is flexible. This is going to change, but let’s start with Griffin Conine. Conine started off the season hot. He was one of the best rookies in baseball. Somebody that there was a lot of doubt surrounding him before he made his major league debut in 2024, whether his offensive profile was going to hold up. And I feel pretty comfortable in saying now over a a year later that it looks pretty good. Now this season he dealt with injury. He was out for pretty much the entire year. It looked like at the end of April he was going to heard his shoulder, undergo shoulder surgery, which he did. It was successful. All right, we’ll see you in 2026. But he does come back at the very end of the year, which I think is great. you get back on the field. Um, it’s a testament to your work ethic and your rehab and your dedication there. And he you’re still a a very exciting player with a ton of power. Ton of power. Conine hit a ball earlier in the year before he got hurt. 117.4 miles an hour. 117. the the the exit velocities this guy can produce are through the roof. The question’s always been, okay, can he make enough consistent contact to justify him being in the lineup consistently. If if you want Conine’s power, the one thing that offsets that that’s a I I I guess that hurts his stock is the swing and miss because he chases, he swings at at at breaking balls, he strikes out a lot. It’s part of the game. There’s there’s players like that who exist. It it’s just something that a true power hitter, it comes with it comes with the with the player you are. I think Conine, this is a huge 2026 season. Huge for him because I do think he can be a 3540 home run guy. I really do. When you have that level of exit velo that that level of power, you can rip those EVs. If you play 150 games, you get enough at at bats and that power translates to in the game to in-game power instead of just raw power, then you’re going to be just fine. He crushes fast balls, crushes them both last season in his 80 plus at played appearances and this season in his 80 plus appearances. I know it’s a small sample size, but when you’ve hit .405 and 394 against fast balls, it’s safe to say that pitchers aren’t going to feel comfortable trying to throw that by you. Now, he struggles with the breaking stuff and the off speed, almost the complete opposite of Jacob Marcy, where Jacob Marcy thrived against secondary offerings. That’s Conine’s that’s one of his detriments to to his profile. So, he’s got to work on that. He’s got to work on that. Otherwise, I don’t know if he’ll necessarily tap into that 30 home run power, the raw tools. And then this is a comparison I literally just thought of. Jesus Sanchez can hit the ball a country mile, has some swing and miss issues, and I know Conine is a much better defender than Jesus Sanchez and is is somebody that, you know, you can literally put in as a defensive replacement, pinch hit, and feel good about him throwing out a guy at home. He’s got a cannon of an arm. Absolute hose. But it’s going to be a big year for him to prove that, hey, I I’ve shown I’ve shown flashes. I had that cameo in 2024. I had the beginning of 2025. Can I stay healthy? Can I put it all together? and can I improve against offsp speed secondaries to where I’m crushing fast balls and I’m average against your your secondaries but that swing and miss is cut down a little bit and then that power really starts to shine and suddenly the Marlins become a home run hitting team because if you have Gus Bus if you have Otto Lopez from your shorts stop hitting 15 to 20 Kyle Sters who can hit 30 plus and Conine this team is going to be a force. So besides Conine, moving down the list, the other player that really stands out to me when talking about that third and final outfield spot is Araberto Hernandez, who came out of nowhere. Nobody expected the level of success from Big Bert, but it was there. 256 at bats. So, not a huge sample size. 87 games. He had 10 bombs, 45 RBI’s, an OPS of 785. That’s That’s pretty solid, 87 games. So, got called up earlier in the year. I think it was May. May or June, he he got called up and it was a questionable decision. He was a minor league free agent, had never debuted. The Rays organization let him go. He comes to the Marlins and he was hitting like 220 in Triple A Jacksonville. Gets the call up and he takes that opportunity and runs with it because production matters. It absolutely matters. The guy can hit the guy can hit a fast ball. I’ll tell you that absolutely he can hit a fast ball. In the Marlins second to last series, Joan Duran threw a 101 mph fast, tried to sneak it by Araberto with two strikes and Big Bert didn’t miss it. Took him deep and I was like, “Wow, that that that’s a ball player right there.” and he’s done he did that multiple times throughout the year. Certainly not someone if you’re the Marlins you’re just going to casually look at and say, “Well, he this was a rebuilding year, a retooling year, what have you. We’re just going to let him walk.” It was a placeholder. I I think Hernandez is more than a placeholder at this at this point. Worst case scenario, you have him in a platoon with Conine for that final outfield spot. And I think that’s what this my initial projection is is that you’re going to have Sters, Marcy, Conine, Hernandez in that right field platoon where Hernandez is going to get the short side and hit lefties and Conine’s going to get the righties. It makes sense. It makes sense because we know how the Marlins like running their their platoon and playing the matchups and I I would feel really good about that outfield if that is indeed the case opening day 2026. Still more players to talk about and I do have some mailback questions that I’m going to get to that’s coming up right after this. The NFL season is here and FanDuel has an offer you don’t want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get 300 in bonus bets if you win. That’s right. 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Locked on Marlins is also on all the major podcast platforms, so you can listen to the show wherever you are. 40man roster breakdown. It’s been fun. It’s been fun, but there’s a lot to get into. I I I realized that my last episode, and this is the second episode of the day, there’s just a lot to talk about, and that’s a that’s a good thing. That is a great thing. Troy Johnston, I’m including him in the outfield discussion because that’s where he’s listed. Johnston’s a major leager. No doubt about it. Bar none. This guy is a hitter in in the Marlins organization and it’s a great story. It’s a great group, really great story. Came up, made his debut finally after seven years in the minor leagues, hit 277, OPS of 751, four bombs, 31 ribbies, has across 112 at bats. He played 44 games. Does Johnson make the roster in 2026? He should. And if he doesn’t, then I want him to go have success somewhere else, some other team in the major leagues, because he’s a major league ball player. He’s better than than than your quad a guy that is is good in the minors but can’t really figure it out. No, he holds his own and he absolutely can be a part of this team success. The issue is I just have trouble really thinking about where he fits in because I don’t think he’s going to fit in the outfield as deep as it is. I think first base and assuming the Marlins don’t make a move at first base, just going off of the guys they have, then Johnston and Wagaman should be the guys in your your opening on your opening day roster and platooning there. Johnston the lefty, Wagamman the righty, and then Liam Hicks, I know he he played first base a little bit. He’s your backup catcher. I I think that’s that’s a good place for Hicks. So Johnston platooning with Wagamin. I don’t like it because I’m not a huge fan of Wagaman. And I would really like to see Johnson get the lion’s share of those at bats. He he’s a better hitter than Eric Wagaman is. And I feel confident in saying that. So I feel pretty pretty good with with Troy Johnston’s 2025 season. It showed he’s a major leaguer. It shows he can hold his own and he has a role on this roster. It’s just murky in the outfield for right now. First base seems to be his calling card. It’s just is he going to be your everyday first baseman? Probably not. He’s probably going to he’s probably going to split time. Let’s go with another player who had a frustrating year. Well, not another player, but a player who had a frustrating player, a frustrating year was Dane Meyers. Meyers started off really good. Started off hot, was one the Marlins best hitter arguably at the beginning of the season, and then just bam, slammed into a wall. His offensive production fell off a cliff. And now we’re wondering here in the offseason, where does Dne really fit in? I I I already gave you four outfielders who I would put above Dane Meyers. Do Do you There’s no Derk Hill on the roster anymore. So maybe Dne is your fifth outfielder that you keep on the roster and can come in to be a defensive replacement. And but I I don’t really know who you’d replace defensively. That’s the thing because Sters is fine. Marcy’s great. Conine’s great. I guess when Araberto’s playing, maybe you you you put Dane Meyers in just for the arm because Meyers is a former pitcher and can can hose anyone out at the plate. But I’m having difficulty seeing where Dane Meyers fits into the 2026 Marlins plans. Not necessarily saying that he can’t bounce back, but you’re not playing him over Sters or Marcy. And then I think Conine has a higher ceiling than Dane. And Araberto just flat outperformed Dane Meyers. Myers was a rule five draft pick. It’s a great story, but his future on the Marlins is certainly in debate. Joey Weame, interesting project. The Marlins brought over some good tools. Former top prospect with the Brewers organization. Goodness though, he he strikes out a lot. Does not walk and a ton of KS. reminds me a little bit of 2024 Sters and they look a lot alike as well. So big off season for him. It’ll be interesting to see if they if they keep him around for spring training or if he gets DFA before that. Currently on the 40man. Again, good tools toolsy player. has some pop in his stick, but the the depth there, I just have a hard time envisioning him beginning the roster or beginning opening day on the Marlins roster. If he is still with the organization, which is a question mark because who knows in this off season things change, he’ll probably start once again in AAA. Victor Mesa Jr. never really got an opportunity to showcase what he what he’s got. Now, he did get he he did play in 16 games, but that’s just such a small sample size. Hit 188. He homerred and and walked five times, only five strikeouts. But at this point, I don’t think the Marlins view Mesa Jr. as a building block or somebody they want to give playing time to because if they did, they would have by now. He he’s a carryover from the previous front office signed back in 2018 with his with his brother Victor Victor Mesa who at the time was the higher high uh uh very highly regarded prospect. Victor Victor Mesa busted Victor Mesa Jr. made it to the show and made his major league debut in 2025. But again, somebody that’s on DFA watch a DFA watch list slash AAA Jacksonville mainstay. That that’s kind of where where I think Mace is going to be. I unless there’s injuries and obviously you need to build depth. So, you’re not just going to DFA guys that aren’t on the roster initially to start out with, but it’s hard to imagine VMJ getting playing in a ton of games for the Marlins in 2026. Before we wrap this up, let’s talk about a couple of questions, open up the mailbag, and I have a few of them, and we’ve we’ve ran out of time. So, tomorrow’s show we’re going to talk more in depth with your mailbag questions. I haven’t forgotten them, but we’re going to answer a couple here. Sportsman says, “Would you go into next year with Norby and Paulie at third?” Norby, no. Maybe to back up Graham Paulie because the Marlins want Norby to be a third baseman. He’s not that good. But I would go in with Paulie at third base. Would I go sign a a free agent if I had the cash? I don’t know. I I think if I had the cash, I would splurge on a elite first baseman like an a Pete Alonzo or a Josh Naylor and then invest in the bullpen. Um third base though, I just like Graham Paulie. I love his defense. I love his defense. I keep going back to K Brian Hayes and what K Brian Hayes did for the Reds. I think that and and the Pirates. I think Graham Paulie can be that guy. Maybe he he’s not as elite as Krian Hayes defensively, but he’s an elite elite third baseman. So yeah, I’m I’m fine with Paulie and Norby at third, especially if Conor Norby improves and kind of just throws this season behind him, gets back to what we saw in 2024. And please, please, Conor Norby, cut down on the chase on the chase rate. He’s got to stop swinging at everything. Otherwise, this is going to be Pauliey’s position. If Paulie shows offensive improvement, which I think he can as well, and you pair that with his glove, more than happy wi with with Conor Norby or with Graham Polly Lizard Snout, funny name says, “Is Mcola the answer at manager?” Oh, okay. So, I don’t like Clayton Mcola’s decisions that he that he’s made. I didn’t like, especially in August, I think he cost this team games, but I will say the way this team finished the season instills more confidence in me. So, yes, he’s going to be the manager in 2026 without a doubt. And if this team continues to improve, then Mcola can be that glue. A and the the the clubhouse environment, the culture, and everybody bought in. You don’t want to mess that up. He has to improve as a manager with his decision- making. That’s fine. He’s also a rookie manager. And I know I’ve came on the show before and been so frustrated. I just wanted him gone. And I I do think that the Marlins at times won in spite of him. But there’s something to say when you’re leading a young team, baseball’s youngest, one of the youngest, if not the the youngest in the entire league. There’s something to say about that when you’re the guy at the helm and you’re the guy making the decisions when guys are are struggling and you’re in a losing streak or you’re you’re riding the waves of success and you have to keep a even keel and you can’t take the success to heart too much and you can’t take the losses as hard as you might want to and the frustration that builds up in you. So give Clayton credit for that. Give him credit for dealing with success, dealing with adversity, and at the end of the day, this team improved by 17 games. So he has a big season in 2026. If the front office and ownership do their job, on paper, this team should be an 80 plus win team. should be if if the front office gives or if Bruce gives the front office the resources in order to patch the holes where they need to patch them, then I think this team can be an 80 plus win team and a playoff team. So, Clayton’s going to have his work cut out for him and I’m sure he he’s going to be invested this off season on how he can get better. I want this team to have success, whether it’s with Clayton McCull as the manager or somebody else. But that doesn’t matter. Clayton is our guy right now. So, if he can just make some good bullpen decisions and not rely on the matchups as much, then I’m going to feel great because I think the culture is in a good spot. That’s going to do it for today’s edition of Lock on Marlins. There’s more mailbag questions that I will get to later in the week, I think on tomorrow’s show. But until next time, guys, stay safe, stay locked on, and let’s go fish.
The Marlins’ outfield situation is complex. Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee are locks, but who will be the final starter? Griffin Conine has a high ceiling with his huge power. Heriberto Hernandez was incredibly productive in his rookie season. Is there room for Dane Myers? Troy Johnston proved he is a solid major leaguer, although his role might be at first base.
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2 comments
Hope they can bring in Thomas white next season this gives us 4 headed monster at starting pitcher and Philip closes games
Stowers in LF, Marsee in CF, and Conine in RF, would be a very formidable outfield starting the 2026 season.