Baltimore Orioles 2025-26 Offseason Preview: Mike Elias can’t mess this one up

Baltimore Orioles 2025-26 Offseason Preview: Mike Elias can’t mess this one up

This 2025 Orioles season was incredibly disappointing and it leads to one of the most important off seasons in franchise history. And I’m going to preview it coming up on this episode of the Locked On Orioles podcast. You are Locked On Orioles, your daily Baltimore Orioles podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hey there, Orioles fans. Today is Wednesday, October 1st, 2025, and welcome back in to the Locked on Orioles podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. As always, I’m your host Connor Nukem. And coming up on today’s episode, we are going to preview the Orioles off season. Every decision, every move, basically everything that’s going to go on between now and pitchers and catchers reporting to Sarasota in February. I will do kind of a thousandfoot view of all of it to preview everything. We’ll talk about the managerial search, the GM opening, the need to add pitching, how the O’s spend money, trades they can make, non-tenders, rule five protections, all that good stuff is coming up on this episode of the Locked on Orioles podcast, which is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase. So, we’re into the offseason. Hope you all enjoyed night number one of wildcard playoff baseball on Tuesday. Unfortunately, for the first time in three years, it did not include the Orioles and that’s why we are previewing the off season a little bit earlier than we have the past couple of years because the O’s at 75 and 87 this season. Well, they didn’t make the playoffs. And while they can’t really start some offseason stuff before anyone else because free agency and other things don’t open until 5 days after the World Series ends, there are some things the O’s probably should think about doing between then and now. So, I will give a disclaimer. I am recording this on the night of Monday, September 29th, just because of some work schedule stuff. I had to kind of pre-record some episodes for this first week of the off season. So, if anything breaks on Tuesday and you don’t hear me talking about it on Wednesday, that is why. But, I’m going to do the entire offseason preview. Now, we’re not going to get into the nitty-gritty of a lot of these things. And that’s because most, if not all of the topics I’m going to touch on in this episode are probably going to get their own more in-depth episode at some point later in the offseason. Whether it be the managerial search, like that’s literally coming up tomorrow with a deeper dive, or it’s things like contract optouts, the non-tender deadline, and those will come later in October or November. But I want to give you a a broad look of what this off season will be like. So, let’s begin with the big picture decisions the Orioles need to make this off season. And there are plenty of them to decide really the direction of this organization after missing the postseason this year with still all this talent. What do they need to do? And the first big picture decision is probably going to be the first one that is made and that is the Orioles need a new manager. The O’s fired Brandon Hyde back on May 17th after a 15 and 28 start to the year. He was in his seventh season as Orioles manager. Of course, took over in 2019 as part of the rebuild. Lot of losing seasons. Turned it around in 2022. Won the division in 23. made the postseason again in 24 despite a a very up and down second half, but was swept out of the postseason both years and then just saw a disaster season early in the season. The O’s felt they needed to make some sort of drastic change. Did it help? Tony Manelino took over as interim manager and he went 60 and 59 as O’s manager. So, they did play much better and above 500, but still wasn’t like they looked like a playoff team under Manelino. They just looked serviceable instead of horrible. And so for the Orioles, the number one question is, will they consider taking the interim tag off Mancelino and making him the full-time manager? Now, Mike Elias did have his kind of end of season press conference with the media on Monday afternoon. And obviously, one of the first things he was asked about and talked about was the managerial situation. And he said what I expected him to say. I didn’t expect him to immediately say, “Hey, Manscolino is not the manager. We’re looking somewhere else.” And I didn’t expect him to immediately say, “Hey, we’re giving Manelino an extension. We’re promoting him to the full-time manager. He said the in between, which is what to be expected. We’re conducting a search. We’re trying to hire manager ASAP. And Tony Manelino is one of the candidates. Now, we don’t know if he’s going to get a formal interview or if the 119 games he managed works probably better than any interview could. Are they going to go outside the organization, look for a veteran manager? Will they look for more of an upandcomer like Brandon Hyde was when they hired him back in November of 2018? And then the other question is kind of how much of the coaching staff gets retained. Like if they don’t hire Manscelino, could they still keep him on staff? Could he return to his duties as the third base coach? He seems to be very, very respected in that room. A lot of Orioles players came out in support of Tony Manelino this week. He’s been a great addition to the clubhouse, I think, since he was hired back in 2021. I’d love for him to stay on staff, but it is awkward after you just were interim manager for most of the year. you don’t get the full-time job and a new guy comes in, especially if you’re going to be back on the staff, it’s not likely that would happen. And then there’s the other guys, right? Like does Drew French, who I think did a fantastic job this year despite all the injuries. Does he stay as pitching coach? Do kind of the new group of hitting coaches with Cody Ashie stay? You know, Robinson Torino was in his first year as bench coach. He’s under contract through next year. That was reported by Andy Kuska of the Baltimore Banner. Torino seemed to take this season like harder than anybody in that story from Andy. Petrios had a lot of interesting quotes. Do do they keep him around as a secondyear bench coach under the new veteran manager? How many coaches would a veteran manager get to bring in on his own? That’s a that’s a big question heading into the offseason. I think the first one that will be answered. But it’s not just manager. The Orioles are also looking to hire a general manager. It was reported a few weeks ago by Ken Rosenthal and Annie Kusca that Mike Elias was quietly promoted from general manager to president of baseball operations back in the offseason. And Elias confirmed it at his press conference on Monday that it happened in the spring and he said they didn’t feel like it was essentially necessary to make that news public. Not really sure why, but whatever. That’s how the Orioles operate. So, they’re now looking to hire someone below Elias. Elias is still in charge of everything. There’s some teams in baseball that just have a GM. There’s some teams in baseball that have a PO, president of baseball operations, and a GM. The PO is always the person still in charge doing the big picture stuff, but a GM comes in and makes more of the day-to-day moves and gives you another voice, another person in that front office. So, would they promote someone like Sigell or Eve Rosenbomb who have been kind of the the top two under Elias for a while now, or will they look outside the organization? The reporting is the OE have talked to people outside the organization, but hadn’t made a hire yet. Elias certainly didn’t seem, you know, as urgent with the GM search as the manager search when he talked on Monday. And that makes sense. You don’t absolutely need a GM. If you have a Pobo in Elias, you need a manager to begin a baseball season. So that that certainly makes sense. The manager, I think, will be hired before the GM. Would it be someone more experienced to handle the day-to-day stuff? Will they look to bring in another like young fast riser kind of fits the Elias mold, kind of the next upand cominging person? I think that’s an interesting question for this team as well. And then really the last big picture question for the Orioles or I guess there’s two big picture questions left. One is what will change for the O’s. They’ve talked about, you know, taking a full look. They talked about it after they were swept out of the wild card round last year looking at things and changing the way they do things. And specifically, they said it when they fired Brandon Hyde and Elias talked about some of the same things on Monday. what will actually change besides personnel, besides signings and all that, like philosophically in the organization, will things change? You know, I’m I’m not sure how far I go in in what exactly needs to change and how much it needs to change, but but will things be altered? Will we see the Orioles kind of operate in a different way heading into next year? And the final big picture goes along with that a little bit is what will the spending look like? This is the second off seasonason since David Rubenstein has taken control of the Orioles ownership group. He certainly upped payroll last off seasonason in year one, way up from what it was under John Angelos. He basically bumped them to around league average. They finished 16th in payroll in the big leagues this year. Generally though, you’re going to need to be in the top 10 to actually compete for World Series most seasons and the O’s still have some spending to go. Now, you’re not just going to spend just for spending sake. You want to spend it on good players and it was more of a mixed bag on doing that last off season. They did give out their first multi-year contract, but it was to Tyler O’Neal and year one was kind of a disaster. I mean, this this has to finally be the time they give out a multi-year contract to a starting pitcher, right? At the very least to a closer because we know they need one with Felix out for most, if not all of next year, but this this has got to be the time that there’s no way that they can go this off seasonason without giving out a multi-year deal to a starting pitcher and and make the playoffs next year. I I I see that to be an extremely low possibility of that happening. So, is that how they spend the money? Do they spend it elsewhere as well? How much does the payroll go up? Again, those are kind of the big picture questions for the O’s this off seasonason. But there are a lot more minute roster details. Even when it comes to spending the money, what exact players are out there in free agency that the Orioles might target? We’ll go through some of those names coming up next. But first, this episode of the Lockedone Orioles podcast is brought to you by Game Time. There is nothing like catching a baseball game live. 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For starters, in terms of starting pitchers, I’m looking for a topline guy and then kind of a middle to back end of the rotation kind of guy. topline guys out there from RValdez, Dylan Cece, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, all some of the interesting pieces out there. Of course, I’ll have an episode breaking down my favorites in free agency in terms of signing pitchers, but those are some of the top names on the board. Then you have some of the middle guys. Lucas Gilito, although we did just learn he’s got an elbow issue and he’s not going to pitch in the wild card series. Zack Gallon, Brandon Woodruff, Mel Kelly are some of those names that are out there. If you added one from group A and one from group B, that’d be a pretty successful off seasonason, maybe you want to do it via trade, you know, Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan of the Twins, maybe Sandy Contra or Edward Cabrera of the Marlins, maybe Sunny Gray from St. Louis, some of the guys who would certainly come in and help this rotation. And you add them to hopefully a healthy Kyle Bradish, a good Dean Kramer, a Trevor Rogers, and and maybe a return of Grayson Rodriguez. you get a number one to two and a number three to four to add to that rotation, you’re in a really, really good spot going into 2026. Now, for the relievers, the Orioles need to add bullpen help. They traded away four relievers at the deadline, two of which could have theoretically been on the team this year, Brian Baker and Andrew Kitridge. And then also, they lost Felix Bautista. Got major shoulder surgery. He’s going to be out for most of and probably all of the 2026 season. So, you lost your closer and you lost two guys that that could have been not guaranteed to be. One had an option, one has been up and down in his career, but could have been at middle relief to set up options for this team. Now, the Orioles have certainly tried out a lot of reliever and some of them are going to stick, but they at the very least need somebody at the back end. I think the two relievers should be one true closer that you’re going to have to pay some money for, but you just got to do it. And the other one should be a solid setup type guy, a lefty preferably, but it’s okay if it’s a righty, if it’s just a good reliever who’s going to help your bullpen. The rest of the pen you can kind of fill out with these guys uh who you’ve been able to find or when you add enough starting pitching, guys like Tyler Wells and others can add to your bullpen and make it better. closers that are out there that I like. Robert Suarez, Devin Williams, Ryan Hley, Kenley Jansen, Riceella Glacius, all some of the top names that could be on the board. And then the good setup, man, like not all of these are righties. Like I put Luke Weaver and Tyler Rogers on here, even though they are right-handers, but if the Orioles go after a lefty, Taylor Rogers, Drew Pomeran, Shawn Nukem, no relation, who was quietly amazing after he went to the A’s this year, some guys who could certainly help out that bullpen. I think you definitely got to go and sign two relievers. The setup guy shouldn’t be too too expensive. You might have to pay some money for the closer, but remember the Orioles had an agreement with Jeff Hoffman for three years and $40 million last offseason to be their closer it seemed like and then they saw something they didn’t like in the medicals and they tried to offer a lower deal and he eventually didn’t take it and signed with the Blue Jays. But they’ve been willing, it seems like, to pay for relief pitching. I I think I’m almost certain they’re going to give a closer a three or fouryear deal to come in and just kind of settle the ninth inning for this team. And then there is the hitter. I think no doubt about it, the Orioles are going to sign at least one position player to a major league deal in free agency. Now, whether it’s kind of a right-handed hitting outfield Raone Lauraniano type, I think that’s the more likely option, right? The guys like a Harrison Bader, an Austin Slater, Willie Castro, Rob Reyder, Miguel Anduhar, somebody in that sense who’s, you know, solid hitter, hits lefties, will be versatile and be on your major league roster. Or do they go big? Are they worried about, you know, the underperformance of a lot of the the young guys in this lineup this year? Do they have the money to spend or do they go and make a big splash? Kyle Schwarber’s out there. Pete Alonzo just announced he’s opting out of his contract. So, he’s going to be a free agent if Alex Bregman opts out. Josh Naylor Suarez, some of the top names that maybe could make sense for the Orioles. I’m I’m leaning towards no that they would go after a big bat, but if they do it, I’m going to be excited and I think it’s going to make this team a lot better. I’m just not sure that’s how they want to spend their money because they want to address pitching more than hitting, but the offense was by the end of the year the bigger problem than the pitching was for the Orioles this season. And I I expect a bounce back from a good amount of those hitters. But is that enough? Or do you need a big-time power bat that you I think missed with without Anthony Santandere this year? And with Tyler O’Neal basically not playing even with keeping O’Neal, I think you’d have room for somebody else in there. And would they want to do that? And then I think the other roster decisions are like, is there anyone with team control who they just move on from? Of course, there are the impending free agents who we’ll talk about, but is there anyone who would be, you know, if you just didn’t do anything, would at least still be on the roster, still under contract through at least next year that the O’s would kind of prematurely take off the roster. You know, are they finally going to decline this team option on Jorge Matteo and finally make him a free agent? I think they will, but who knows where Matteo just stays on this roster forever? Ryan Mount Castle has one more season before free agency. Is it just time to move on and and try to trade him or or maybe even non-tender him at some point? Could it be the end for Keegan Aken? He also just has one year remaining and it was really really a down year by the end of the season for Aken. I know he was in spots he shouldn’t have been in, but man oh man, I mean his his command, which had always been his calling card, just completely left him. So, we’ll see how that shakes out. You know, would they be willing to trade a player like a Kobe Mayo to potentially go and get pitching even if they are also willing to deal Ryan Mount Castle? Does that open them up more to sign a big bat to play first base or have Poseio play there more? And you know, what is the future for a guy like H Kirststad? We did get an update from Mike Elias on Monday who did reveal that it is a medical issue that Kirstad is dealing with. Elias seems optimistic that Kursad will be ready for spring training 2026 and be healthy. He wouldn’t comment on if it is a lingering factor from all the things Kursad’s dealt with in his life, whether it was the myocarditis after being drafted or the the multiple concussion issues he had last year. I don’t want to speculate, but your mind at least goes to thinking it’s one of those things. And you you hope it’s not something that’s impacting him beyond the baseball field, and you wish him the the best just beyond coming back to the Orioles. But you know that that’s a question mark. That’s a guy who if healthy could be an impact bat in your lineup. But we’ve seen it at times and it really puts into perspective how bad he was this year. It was probably something he was dealing with while he was even on the field. And then I think the last thing is even if the Orioles do sign two legitimate relievers in free agency, who can stick around in this bullpen among all the guys auditioning? You know, is there a place for Dietrich Ends and Rico Garcia and Cade Strad and Grant Wolfram and potentially beyond in this bullpen next year or do the Orioles really upgrade fully and make a lot of moves to add around them? And even if they don’t, which of that mix, you know, do other guys pop in? Jose Espata or Colin Selby or all these different guys who have popped at times this year. Do they have an ability to make this team? It’s going to be, I think, a really fun storyline in spring training is what this bullpen looks like. And I’m sure there’ll be other additions to the roster this off season. Those are kind of the big decisions, the big moves, important roster moves. But there’s other dates and deadlines and things that are going to come up that are certainly going to play a factor in this off seasonason like the rule five draft, protecting players, non-tenders, qualifying offers, all that good stuff. We’ll get to that to finish off the show coming up next. But first, this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast is also brought to you by FanDuel. The NFL season is here and FanDuel has an offer you don’t want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get 300 in bonus bets if you win. That’s right. Pick a bet, put down five bucks, and if it hits, you’ll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. And FanDuel’s great because it gives you so many ways to play. You can build parlays, you can try player props, you can even follow the live lines during these games. 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We’re we’re done here. There were great moments. There were bad moments with Matteo. We’re done here. Just do not pay that man5 to $6 million to do nothing for this team next year. Please. Tyler O’Neal could theoretically opt out. Remember, he signed that three-year about $49 million deal last offseason, but it included a player opt out after year 1. So O’Neal could become a free agent again via his choice. He basically has to weigh because he has about two years $32 million left on the Orioles contract. Does he think he could get more than that in the open market after playing 54 games because of injury and not being so great in those games anyway? I doubt he thinks he can do better than two years, 32 million. So, I’d say it’s about a 98% chance he opts in and remains with the Orioles, but at least something to watch. That deadline would be 5 days after the World Series. Will anyone get the qualifying offer for the Orioles? Remember, that is about a one-year $22 million contract you give to a guy to come back to your team. If he declines it and he signs elsewhere for more money, you get a draft pick. The Orioles offered it to both Corbin Burns and Anthony Santandere last year. They both signed elsewhere and they got two extra draft picks last season which they used uh to get what Viva Aloy and Slater de Brun or not Slater Debrun, that was the Brian Baker pick. I believe it was Kaden Boddine and Vehiva Aloy into this system. So maybe I mean again the free agents that could have gotten it they traded away at the deadline. Maybe Zack Efflin, remember him, underwent back surgery, is still technically an oral at this point until the World Series ends, but there’s so many questions about his health. Would you really be willing to pay him $22 million for next year? I mean, I think he would accept it if you offered it, but are you willing to offer it or do you just not? And then think you can probably get Efflin. I think it’s likely you can get Efflin back for like one year, eight to 10 million if you want to for him to kind of have a prove it season to prove he’s healthy after the back surgery back to the Zack Efflin who was awesome down the stretch for the Orioles last year after the trade deadline. Would any of the other free agents or guys they traded be willing to come back? You know, you have the free agents leaving the team now, not just Efflin, but would you bring back Tomyuki Sugato? I think probably not. Would you bring back Gary Sanchez? I think almost definitely not. Or the guys who you traded away, you know, would a Siranthy Dominguez want to come back or a Gregory Sodto when you’re adding to the bullpen, would you bring back Cedric Mullins even after dealing him and him being awful down the stretch for the Mets? Would you, if you maybe traded Mount Castle and Mayo, would you try to resign Ryan O’Harn as he hits free agency after his time with the Padres’s this off season? Those are definitely questions for the Orioles to potentially answer. Those are guys they know. There’ll also be the non-tender deadline sometime in November, usually late November. Remember, the non-tendering is guys who are hitting arbitration who instead of just paying them their number for the next season, you just essentially wipe the slate clean and and release them and make them a free agent. Is Ryan Mount Castle a part of that crew? He’s going to be due probably about $9 million next year. He really hasn’t been productive lately. He’s just a first baseman. You have Kobe Mayo. You have Samuel Bisio. Mount Castle doesn’t make a lot of sense on this roster. If you’re not able to trade him, he’s probably a non-tender candidate. Or maybe a guy like Dylan Carlson, although although he did sign a one-year deal, he’s still under arbitration for one more year before he would hit free agency again. You know, would you be willing to pay Dylan Carlson another five or six million to be depth for this team next year? Or because he didn’t really hit it all, do you just kind of move on and and get a different type outfielder in that spot? We’ve also got the rule five protection deadline which will be sometime in November. Remember these are players who are about three and a half years removed from being drafted at a college or about four and a half years removed from being drafted at a high school. Is the general player pool that is eligible for the rule five draft. The rule five draft happens in December at the winter meetings where you can pluck players out of other teams organizations who are eligible and who have not been added to the 40man roster to protect them. Tyler Wells, kind of the most famous rule five pick by the Orioles who’s currently on the roster. And you have some interesting names who are rule five eligible this offseason. The Orioles need to decide whether or not they want to add them to the 40man. There’ll be a full episode later in November kind of previewing this in detail. But Cameron Weston, who spent the whole year in the AAA rotation, Anthony Nunees and Cameron Foster, two relievers they acquired at the deadline uh from the Mets who are both in AAA. Jud Fabian, former high draft pick, who was in Triple A this year, all have good chances, I think, of being protected on the roster. Then you have some interesting cases like Keegan Gillis, former guest of this podcast, throws really hard, good stuff, AAA reliever. Carter Baller, former fifth round pick in 2020, had so many injuries. Then he was finally healthy and was incredible in high A and double A as a reliever this year. He’s not even in AAA yet, but is that a guy who you think is a relief arm next season? Reed Trimble, another guy who’s just been scorched with injuries, was finally healthy and was like really good in double A and then AAA as an outfielder this year with a lot of speed. Switch hitter. Is that a guy you go after? Raone Gomez, another guy you traded for from the Mets. Didn’t throw a pitch for the Orioles after the trade deadline because of injury, but he has the hardest fast ball in minor league baseball. Throws it up to 104 miles an hour, but he’s never pitched above the double A level. Is that someone who is worth protecting? The have some interesting decisions to make there. And then of course there’s the actual rule five draft in December which happens during the winter meetings. Of course those winter meetings in I believe Orlando this year is where a lot of the deals free agency trades get made. So if you’re saying through November, hey this offseason’s been boring. Nothing has happened. Just kind of circle the dates um of the winter meetings and most likely that is when things will happen. that um is going to be let’s see when are these winter meetings. This is fantastic podcasting right here. Uh looks like early December in Orlando uh is when the winter meetings are happening this year. Yeah, December 7th through the 9th uh in Orlando. So, circle those dates is when things could really start happening. Will the Orioles also make a selection in the rule five draft? They haven’t done that in a couple of years. Would they do it this year? And there’s certainly going to be a lot of other movement on the 40man roster. You’re going to have guys who are on the 40man right now who are going to be, you know, outright off the roster and DFA early in the offseason, guys who, you know, were just kind of here as placeholders and they want to clear up space. You know, some of the first guys to go, Josh Walker, who was in Triple A, never even debuted after coming over on waiverss. Maybe a guy like Carson Ragsdale, it could happen again. You know, someone like Jose Castillo or Shawn Dubin because of his injury. You know, you’ll have probably Maverick Handley come off the 40man, a Ryan Nota type, maybe a Luis Vasquez, a Daniel Johnson, guys like that will go and that’ll open up space. But then there’s some tougher decisions that you could have to make if you really do add to this roster. And then the last thing is, you know, which guy, because we know the Orioles, as every team does, they’re going to sign players to minor league contracts with big league spring training invites this off seasonason to, you know, get some depth, whether it’s on the pitching side or the position player side for double A and AAA, but also to find guys on the cheap who pop and can really add to this team. you know, some of the guys they’ve done that recently. Jeremiah Jackson, Albert Suarez, Yaram Haraldo, guys they found on minor league deals who have to different degrees helped this major league team over the past few seasons. They’re going to sign plenty of guys who fit that mold, but which you know probably one to two actually pop and help the team in the big leagues next year. It’ll be interesting to kind of see who those names could be as well. But that is your full big picture offseason preview. everything that’s most likely going to happen with the Orioles this off seasonason. But don’t worry, pretty much everything I talked about is going to get its own more specific episode to dive into each thing coming up later in the offseason. We’ve got plenty of offseason content planned for you, including tomorrow when I do the first deep dive into one of these topics, the managerial hiring process. Michaela said Monday they want to hire a new manager ASAP. Tony Manelino’s in the running, but the O’s are also going to interview some outside candidates. So, I’ve got seven candidates, including Mancelino, who could be the right fit for the job. And I’m going to run through all of them and why they might fit coming up on tomorrow’s episode. Until then, I’m Connor Nukem, and this has been the Lockdown Orioles podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

The Baltimore Orioles are heading into one of the most important offseasons in franchise history. Host Connor Newcomb previews the entire offseason as a whole, diving into potential free agent signings, trades, managerial hirings, 40-man roster moves, and more!

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