KEYS for the Buffalo Bills to defeat the New England Patriots

KEYS for the Buffalo Bills to defeat the New England Patriots

Ladies and gentlemen, week five is already here. I feel like this NFL season has just been marching on by and I feel like we all need to show a little bit of appreciation of reflecting back during the off season where we’re sitting here pulling topics out of our ass. Now we actually have football to talk about and I’m just trying to relish in it because while week five is here, we’re going to blink our eyes and it’s going to be week 17, week 18 gearing up for the playoffs. So damn, I love football season. And you know what? I love each and every single one of you. Especially those of you that tune in each and every single morning. You make this a part of your daily routine to sit down and talk football with you. Boy, man, I’m excited to unpack everything we need to know about the New England Patriots. A divisional rival coming into town. Sounds like Mike Vrabel’s pretty excited. We saw a clip of him discussing uh with his team in the locker room after they ended up putting belt to ass on the Carolina Panthers, suggesting he’s excited that the whole world is going to be watching this Bills and Patriots game. Let’s see if he’s planning on bringing his aame because guys, I got to tell you, I have a feeling this is going to be an annoying game. And I think it’s going to be one of those annoying games where miraculously we still end up winning by 10 plus. But I think there’s going to be a couple of moments whether it’s on the defensive side of the ball or whether or not that it’s a couple of offensive drives that just appear like we’re not looking like ourselves. I just have a feeling it’s going to be again one of those games. But that’s what you can anticipate from a divisional rival. I think we can all be thankful that uh we have our third in a row home game. Damn, this league is really making sure that Bills fans are getting um as much of a taste of the old Highark Stadium before we end up transitioning over to the new one. But damn boys, welcome as you are coming in. Hit that thumbs up sign for me. It’s the easiest way to show love over here on the channel. And then also folks, roll call in the chat and let me know where you are tuning in from. All right, I’m nosy. I want to understand how far Bill’s Mafia truly expands. What corner of the globe are you located in right now? Do not be shy. I’m talking to each and every single one of you that maybe likes to lurk on these episodes. Just listens. You might be working. That’s completely fine. But let me know where you’re tuning in from. All right? Including the lurkers. I need to go on ahead and give a giant shout out to a couple of our proud partners today. Uh number one obviously being our good friends, William Matar. Folks, if you are ever hurt in a car, you got to call William Atar, number one car accident attorney in the state of New York. The phone number is on the screen and always have this in the back of your mind in case that unfortunate scenario does indeed occur to you. And next up, guys, number one player prop platform on the market today, folks. If, for example, that you love, you know, sending off those player props on a week- toeek basis, you got to be doing it over on Sleeper Picks, matching 100% of your first deposit all the way up to $100, man. Pick anywhere between two to six players and you could see returns up to 1,000x as long as you know ball. The link is in the description. Go on ahead and take advantage of it and feel free to send me over some of your damn picks as well. Uh, when the season goes along on Axe, man, let me know if I should tail you. I should fade you on specific scenarios. Shout out to Sleeper Picks, man. Terms and conditions obviously apply, guys. Listen, you already know how we end up running these preview segments. I like starting from previous games to understand if there is an identity we can put together, sort of to formulate an opinion on what we should expect from said team, what they do well, what they don’t. Then we’re going to look at more uh leaguewide statistics comparing them to other teams in the league offensively and defensively. And then we start looking at specific players and how I think that some of the Buffalo Bills matchups may favor and or hinder this Buffalo Bills team. So super excited to unpack all of this for you. But let’s see where everyone’s tuning in from right now. Man, I got to see how far Bill’s Mafia truly extends. We have West Point, New York is in the building. Joseph, I hope you’re having a wonderful day. my friend. Uh, we have South Pennsylvania. I’m here in Pennsylvania. Ronald, what’s going on? Chattanooga, Tennessee. Ontario is in the building. South Florida. What the f is up, Sean? Hope all is well with you, my friend. We have Lacawana, New York. Uh, we have Takula, California. What’s up, Demetrius? West Idaho. Doadon, I know you’re not in West Idaho right now. However, I appreciate the troll. Do hope all is well with you, my friend. Bowling Green Kentucky is in the building. Good morning, Bills Mafia. Buffalo, New York, 716. I think so, too. I think we will win, but it will not be a big blowout by any means. I hope in addition to winning, we shut Stefon Diggs down. That’s certainly a storyline is his first game back in High Mark. I’m sure Josh Allen kind of wants a bit of revenge from the the last time they faced off against each other. San Diego today, Knoxville, Tennessee. The former United States Brian. Wow. Wow. Where is that? Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Rochester is in the house. What is up, Dan? San Antonio. I’m very far away. Dan’s closet. You are not in Dan’s Closet. Gulf of America, Florida. Buffalo. Daddy D. What’s going on, man? I’m I am also I I am also on the Gulf of America. That much I can’t tell you. North Pennsylvania is in the building. Upstate New York. Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Atlanta is in the building. We have Pater number two against the run. I’m not worried because even if they stop Cook, Josh will put that cape on and break an angry run. You already know what’s up. What’s up, Dan, my man? Yo, Parks. What’s up, brother? Hope all is well with you. We have Atlanta. Let’s pluck those birds next Monday. Oh, man. What can you do? We have Kevin Oness is in the building. Hi, Dan from Statesville, North Carolina. Go Bills. Look at that. Drake May is already getting on my nerves. Pats Nation is coming for Orchard Park. It’s so nice to be back on Sunday night football in our brand new jerseys. I will be rocking my brand new Josh Allen Nike rivalries jersey. I’m kind of excited to see how that all plays out. We have Isaiah is in the building. The Bills number one receiver is going to be shut down by our lockdown corner Christian Gonzalez. We have Isaiah coming in, man. He’s he’s ramping up that trash talk already. Don’t worry, we’re going to be really unpacking this game ad nauseium until we end up finding some keys for this Bills team to walk away with a victory. Make sure everyone to hit that like and subscribe button to show support to the channel. Much love to this channel in many ways. Austin, thank you so much, brother. I hope all is well with you. He’s an intern over at Round Table Sports. He does a great job. Dond Don 19, my guy Dan, what is up? My guy, dude, we have a couple of Lions fans in here. We got Dose of Dion. We got Don Don in here. Senica, South Carolina, we got Angela coming in letting the people know. Hit that like and help Dan out, man. All right, boys. Let’s go on ahead and unpack some of the recent games from the New England Patriots. Thus far, they are currently sitting at two and two, right? Most recently, they played the Carolina Panthers. Uh, which is it’s odd because I have no idea what to think of the Carolina Panthers. Like, you see that team completely shut out the Atlanta Falcons and then they go out there and they lay an egg against the New England Patriots. Now, this Patriots team look good. And folks, while I don’t think that this is a team where I’m nervous that they’re going to steal the AFC East away from us, I do think that they are a year away. I genuinely believe that. I think that we’ve seen signs from this organization that they are doing things correctly. I like the um so the development of Drake May so far going into year two. I think once they end up going into an off seasonason where they really address some of the offensive line issues, I think this team is going to be scary. I still think that this team is going to present some challenges to Buffalo, even at home, right? Like we’ve seen the past couple of games where Buffalo for the most part is not really playing consistently on both sides of the football. Whether or not that that’s part of the game scripts or whether or not that with the Buffalo Bills we were experimenting with a couple of new things that we wanted to implement. Um I don’t think that this is the team to do that against. I think that we really need to make sure we play complimentary football. We make sure that we don’t shoot ourselves in the damn foot and then uh we can go uh from there. We have Parks is saying that we are a year away. Yeah, dude. As long as Varel can go on ahead and make some really good offseason moves, draft well. I think that this is like next year when we’re coming into predicting who wins the division. I think I would not be upset if anybody came in and said that it could be the pass, right? But let’s go on ahead and take a look at this New England Patriots squad thus far. I think that we need to take a look at this Drake May. Solid, right? Solid. And it’s funny, too, because you’re looking at at least what I think that the New England Patriots are trying to replicate is the exact same system as the Buffalo Bills. At least for the past couple of weeks, Drake only ended up having 17 passing attempts for about 203 yards and two touchdowns. He’s making very conscious, very intelligent decisions out there. He’s not putting the ball in harm’s way, and he’s really being able to leverage what the defense gives him. And that’s what you want out of a year two quarterback, right? Like you want to be able to establish his overall, you know, sort of confidence. Rushing is interesting for me because here’s the deal. This team has been struggling running the football. I think a lot of it has to do with some of their run blocking schemes on the offensive line. So, how I look at it this way is we’re looking at our run defense and that makes us want to crash out almost each and every single week. and we’re going up against a team that has all but since struggled against stopping the run. So, if for example that Buffalo goes out there and we allow uh Raandre Stevenson or Tayvon Henderson go for an absurd amount, you know, like 7060 or one of them cracks 100 and they’re going off like an average of six yards per carry, then yeah, maybe it’s time to start sounding the alarm bells on the Buffalo Bills run defense. Um, this team I would say is not really known as a ground and pound type team. I think that they will improve once they end up addressing the run blocking schemes, but I don’t particularly think that this team’s game plan is going to be let’s pound the rock against this squad. Maybe they want to test it like we see two units, two conflicting units facing off against each other who have been struggling. Who ends up winning that battle? I think the New England Patriots are going to probably be more of a pass first type offense on Sunday. That’s just based off of what I’ve seen from them so far. Receiving is interesting, right? Stefon Diggs had a game, six receptions, 101 yards, 16.8 on average. Now, we could say whatever we want to say about Stefon Diggs, but what he has been able to do as far as his recovery is really almost unprecedented. Like, guy ended up tearing his ACL at about week five, week six of last year. And not only did he have a incredible recovery, but he’s not on a pitch count, he’s out there. He’s making plays. And that was the first big game from said wide receiver, I think that he is going to be at X Factor against the Bills. I really do. Now whether or not that that’s Benford on him or whether or not that that’s Tradavius White or Dorian Strong, we saw last week that Tradavius White and Dorian Strong were for the most part really like switching up on their overall responsibilities. So I’m curious to see who CB2 is out there, but watch for Stefon Diggs of course to be an X factor who’s going to be on him. Will they run Diggs out of the slot on a couple of issues? I don’t know what Brabbel has in mind. I don’t know. Um, so what they’re, you know, so their offensive coordinator has in mind with this, but I do think that they’re going to attempt to strategically align particular wide receiver and cornerback matchups to throw Buffalo off. So that’s something to think about. You have Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. Like normal, this New England Patriots team loves using their tight ends. They still do to this day. You have Kahan Booty. You have Henderson and M. Collins with one reception and then four yards. As far as their defense, you had Chason with a sack last week and that’s about it. So, as far as pressure, not the best defensive line as far as pressures and sacks that we’re seeing, but this is what we can expect from the Patriots moving forward. They completely made Bryce Young look like an absolute bum. Now, say what you want about Bryce Young. I was high on him toward the back half of the season. He’s coming out. He’s buming it all over the place again. 18 for 30, 150 yards, one touchdown. Completely confused the hell out of this young man. They did well against the run against Carolina, but granted, I think that they probably completely abandoned the run scheme once the Patriots started pulling away. And then with receiving, right, I mean, I guess T ended up having a pretty solid game with his 15.5 average. had Tommy Tremble, whoever the hell that guy is. He’s a like I mean, he’s a Madden generated player at this point. But this is what we can expect, man. Solid defense thus far. And with the Carolina Panthers only were able to sack Drake May once. We’re going to have to take a look at some of the specifics as far as how much pressure he has been seeing, but let’s go ahead and move on from there. Now, what I want to do is I kind of want to take a look at some of the specifics. Where do they rank as a team offensively and defensively? Then we’ll end up looking at their lineup. And then we’ll ultimately end up looking at what makes Drake May tick. Uh what makes Stefon Diggs tick? What is their defensive outlook? How what is their strategy, right? And that way we’re going to be able to formulate a way to attack it or at least how I anticipate that they are going to attack it. And let’s go on ahead. Uh we have Jay. As a Yankees and Bills fan, Yankees had a tough loss last night and might lose tonight, get eliminated in the playoffs. Worst part about it is I got to hear Boston fans yapping about it. Damn, we got Johnny Buffalo pass or ass. We will be a close game because we never put BTA when we should other than the New York Jets. Dan, in my opinion, Drake May is going to force the ball to Diggs in this game, especially after the game he just had. Put a good game plan together to shut him down and create turnovers. Go Bills. Here’s the thing. Say that I was say that I was Brael, say that I was Drake May, I probably wouldn’t target Diggs too often because I think that’s what the Buffalo Bills defense is anticipating. And I think that they are going to do their best to try and force Drake May to target Stefon Diggs where whether or not that like we could bracket the guy, we could do a bunch of disguise coverage, create turnovers, I think that that could be something that might hurt the Pats on this one because you definitely know that Buffalo is planning for that. And I think that that might be a way to kind of show them, oh yeah, we’re going to create turnovers if you want to go on ahead and target Stefon Diggs by various disguised coverages. Who knows? Don’t even get me started on the Yankees, man. F. All right. Hey, Dan. Hope all is well. I need you to take the kid gloves off and let Colobby have it next time he pumps his chest at you. He’s getting over a bit cocky for no real reason. Go Bills. So, here’s my deal, man. Here’s my deal. I regularly don’t go at any of my co-hosts on the AFC East round table. I have toward the early days, but like now I just let the team do the talking, right? And I go up on Mondays and I put my victory shades on. But I feel like out of any team in the AFC East that deserves to pump their chests, I think that it is the Patriots. It’s not It’s not the Dolphins. It’s not the Jets. So, I’m never going to be mad at somebody for being optimistic about their team. I do think that that that the Patriots are doing the right thing as far as rebuilding. Mikey is coming in saying, “Wearing the cold front unis when it’s going to be a high 78 and low of 60 is just too anomalous.” Yes, but devil’s advocate here for the uniforms, right? We could have worn them in the winter, but this whole white out thing that Buffalo is trying to do wouldn’t have worked out if it was December and it’s like 15° outside. I feel like everybody would be in their winter coats whether or not that you forced everyone to buy a white um like rivalries jersey in December. I think it’s better off for the potential white out that Buffalo is trying to do. I don’t think it’s going to be a white out. I don’t think that people are going to go out and spend the money on these jerseys or like a white t-shirt or anything, but could be a cool situation. Could be a cool situation. Colobby and I were on the phone and he even went at me about the Chiefs. Kobe is funny and he is just being silly. Kobe’s getting a bit delusional comparing May to Allen. Don’t you think, Dan? Ah, look, it’s cool. It’s cool to be excited about your quarterback. While I do not agree just yet, he’s playing good ball. He’s playing good ball. And so, I’m not going to hate on Drake May. He like, he is playing good football right now. But, I mean, we’ll see. I mean, we’ll see. That That’s why the good Lord makes us play football games, right? Let’s see if he can go shot for shot with Josh Allen on Sunday. That’s all I’m going to say here. From a physical standpoint, they are similar indeed. Anyway, so so let’s go on ahead and take a look at where they stand offensively and let’s go on ahead and start putting together a defensive game plan of how we can hopefully shut these guys down. Right. Right now, the New England Patriots are top 10 in the league for points per game. 25 and a half. Their yards per game around middle of the field, 336.3. A lot of defensive opportunities are created for this offense. Uh points per play, which is EPA, uh is top 10 in the league. Yards per play, 5.6. Third down conversion, they are top 10. Last week, I know everyone loves giving about the Buffalo Bills third down defense. Last week, we held the Saints to five for 10 attempts. It’s not terrible, right? But they were a very bad third down offense. This is a top 10 third down offense. Let’s make some plays here. Now, particularly, I would like to see, and this might actually be a key on third down, I would love to see some press action on the line. I would typically I don’t like when our wide receivers are lining nine yards off of the line of scrimmage on third and eight opportunities, right? I think we do that strategically because our corners aren’t very fast or maybe we’re kind of nervous that one of our guys is going to get too handsy and we’re just going to hand them a fresh set of downs based off of a penalty. Ideally, on third down situations, third and five and beyond, I would like Benford to press at the line. I’d be fine with Trey White or Dorian Williams, but Trey White, for the love of God, man. Please chill on the damn penalties. For the love of God, don’t don’t be too handsy. Be physical, but bump these guys off of their timing. We will see. This will be a fun matchup and the best two games against each other in the East for sure. But we already know that the Dolphins and the Jets matchups are not going to be exciting for I mean really anybody for the most part. So third down defense. I would love to see some press action on the line. I’m fine with us surprisingly enough being an entire zip code off of the line of scrimmage on third down because take away the big play for me. Take it away from me from the beginning. Right. And I don’t particularly trust our corners in the speed department in press man situations. Press the line more often than not. I know that you’re not going to be seeing it every single instance, but do it more so than uh so within anything. Fourth down conversion 87 and a half. Red zone scoring top 10. Look, dude. So with this offense has been doing well and touchdowns per game 3.3 top five in the NFL. This team’s been looking good. It’s been looking good. Rushing is a different story, right? Stephvenson has been public enemy number one for most New England Patriots fans. A lot of people want to see Trevon Henderson as the lead back, but where it stands, they are averaging 3.9 yards per rush. Somewhat quality run defenses they have been going up against. I’m not going to go ahead and attach something to them quite yet. Uh rushes per game, 26.3. Rush yards 101.3. That’s that’s toward the bottom of the league. And then rush touchdowns. Uh still top 10. A lot of those are Drake May though, so something to think about. Pass statistics significantly improved. You have a 73.3% completion percentage with Drake May. I’m very excited to unpack what Drake May looks like statistically as far as his average depth per target. That’s going to tell us a far more considerable story. You have passings per game 31. That’s toward the bottom of the league. yards per pass, eight yards. All right, so they like to stretch the ball or stretch the field a bit more than most yards per game. Top 10 at 235 interceptions thrown 1.6 at 13th and the quarterback is sacked not too often at 9.49%. So, so you can get pressure here and as far as turnover margins on here toward the bottom of the league. So, can we create turnovers? That is indeed the question. This is what we’re looking at for the offense. Let’s transition over to the offense over in New England. Look at that. You have Kahan Booty on the outside. Likely will be going up against Tradavius White andor Dorian Strong surprisingly who’s going to be out there. Trey White and Dorian Strong uh were out there almost interchangeably last week. I wonder if that trend continues. Stefon Diggs, you know, he’s probably their best wide receiver on the team, at least throughout four weeks of the season. He’ll be going up against Teran Johnson. That’s going to be a very good matchup. A very good one. I’m excited to see what Buffalo has in store. And then M. Collins on the opposite side of him as well. And they also end up interchanging wide receiver four, wide receiver five. Have the offensive line. Let’s take a look at exactly what they are bringing to the table. Will Campbell. All right. rookie has been doing pretty good in pass blocking situations. 68.8 so far, PFF grade, has not been all that bad. Right? The big thing with Will Campbell going into the draft was that his arms were too short, right? That he was not um he was not a good left tackle because of those physical because of those physical restraints. I got to tell you what, he’s been proving a lot of people wrong. He plays wildly physical. He’s pretty good and I’m very excited to see what this matchup looks like against him and Gregory Russo. Perhaps Joey Bosa as well who may be lining up against him at some point. That’s going to be a test for the young man. And you know what? No disrespect to Will Campbell. I’m sure he’ll be a great left tackle, but test him. Test him. He’s a rookie, right? See what he brings to the table, right? Test him. Test him often. See if he can draw a couple of holds. Line him up against Bosa. line him up against Russo. Test him. He’s a rookie. All right. I think this might be one of his best matchups so far or like one of his most Oh my god. Like we’re going up against this dude. We have Wilson right here. We have Jared Wilson a pass block rate of about 53.4, run block 50.2. There’s no question that the run block PFF scores are not ideal right now. That translates into why Stevenson and perhaps Henderson have not been having the best year. So, run blocking is what it is. We have Morgan Moses, right? Uh, he was on the Jets last year. He was on the Ravens the year before that. I like that matchup on the offensive line. And then you have this gentleman right here, best pass blocker on the offensive line. Can we get not TJ Sanders, but Dion Walker, who’s been that dude? Time will tell. We have our first super chat of the day. You’re doing great things, Dan. God bless your success. Thank you so much, man. God bless you for coming in and showing a little bit of love for me, man. Sincerely. So, key number one is give me a bit more press coverage on the line during third down situations. I finally feel comfortable with the matchups where I’m not so much concerned that our DBs are going to get burned, right? Not so much concerned in other situations. Just do me a favor and limit penalties. Don’t be drawing any holdings. Don’t be drawing any pass interferences. just go on ahead and be physical at the line and third down. I think that’s what we need to do because this offensive line right here, I think that you can test these guys in quite a bit of pressures. I think that our defensive line has some um some ways to win. I’ve also heard through the grapevine that Ed Oliver is looking like he could be making his debut back from week one. I also heard that Matt Milano as well could be making his way back as well, which is ideal. Um, so I think that there are possible wins from the Buffalo Bills defensive line and offensive line. Press on the line and third down situations. I think we can get to Drake May indeed. Right. So, let’s take a look at what we have in Drake because what do we need to know about this player? Sure, I could sit here and tell you all of the box stats, but that doesn’t tell the real story. Who is he as a quarterback? Is he solid against pressure? Is he solid against the blitz? What is his average time to throw? Uh where does he like to throw the football? Where does he like to target the field? How can we end up putting together matchups that can put the Bills in a quality position of being able to exploit this young man or make more plays than the Patriots can at home? Well, we are going to find out so far. Let’s go ahead and go to passing. What kind of passer is he so far? So far on the season. All right. He has 988 yards. He’s top 10 in the league. top five I want to say or flirting around top five yards per attempt eight that’s one of the highest in the league where it stands right now seven touchdowns he has two interceptions on the year and his completion percentage is sitting at 74% so the kid’s out there he’s doing his thing he’s doing his thing so far um three big time throws so what that tells me is that he’s not stretching the field too often his average depth of target is still at 7.2. So, it’s not like he’s captain checkdown right now, folks. It’s not like that. He’s living behind the line of scrimmage. That makes it even more impressive to me that his completion percentage is where it is. He’s not a captain check down 2.4 yards average depth of target or a wide receiver screen running back screen merchant. He’s ballsy. He tests downfield. Now, I’d have to look back at the film and some of these previous matchups to see if cornerbacks are lining up an entire zip code away from the the line of scrimmage and they’re trying to take away the big time throw or the big time plays. But for the most part, it sounds like, at least what the numbers are suggesting to me, most defenses are giving a lot of cushion from the DB over to the wide receiver. I want to test that. I would like to test that more than ever on this one. His average depth of target is 7.2. He has two drops so far. So, surprisingly enough, his wide receivers are catching the football. Is not dealing with a lot of drops. So, something to consider. That’s a key point during the game. They catch a drop percentage is only at 2.2. All right. Sacks 13. My theory was correct. My theory was correct. He has 13 sacks, four against his first first matchup against Las Vegas. He had three against Miami, five right against Pittsburgh. Of course, with Carolina only one. So again, like I said, press on the line and do whatever you can to go on ahead and get rid of his quick throws. test Will Campbell, test that interior with Deion Walker, with Ed Oliver coming back. Same thing against Morgan Moses, with Joey Bosa. And so I think that this could be a big pressure game for the Buffalo Bills. And I would really like them to be able to exploit that, right? Their offensive line is nowhere near complete. I think next year they will be significantly better. But let’s continue. Uh scrambling about 15 times. So he is indeed experiencing pressure. Uh first downs 52. His rating is at 109 from there. His pressure rate, I’m curious to see where we’re at as far as pressure. Scrambling 15 times suggest pressure uh for sure. His drop backs were 50 and then sacks at 13. So something right here to consider. Now moving on. His passing. What we’ve learned about Drake May so far, solid completion percentage. He’s not a captain checkdown guy. He’s not living behind the line of scrimmage. He’s not a big screen guy, at least for the most part. He’s making very quality quality decisions thus far. But let’s move on. How do we get to this kid? Because what you heard from me, you’re like, Dan, get pressure on this guy. And you can get pressure on this guy because his offensive line is not quite there yet in my opinion. So, what I always like to take a look at passing pressure. What is he like when he’s kept clean, when he’s under pressure, and when he is blitzed specifically? So we can put together sort of an attack plan in the trenches. Kept clean. And so my boy is completing 80.6% of his passes. He has seven touchdowns, one interception. His yards per attempt is sitting at 8.2. Now folks, I can tell you this is not going to be a surprise. Most quarterbacks are not good when they’re under pressure. They are worse. And so unless you look at some anomalies like Josh Allen or Spencer Rattler, surprisingly enough was actually really good under pressure. Pressure with Drake May, this completely changes the equation completely. 53.3% completion percentage. 7.6 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns, one interception. Got to pressure this kid. absolutely have to pressure this kid organically. Not blitzing because when you see from when he is experiencing pressure compared to when he is blitzed 73.2% completion percentage. Don’t think it’s too good of an idea. I don’t think it’s smart of an idea to dial up the blitz packages at least vomiting vomiting blitz packages against this QB because he is significantly significantly better when blitzed. And so you take a man out of coverage, he’s going to make you pay for it. He’s a smart kid. He goes through he goes through his progressions. He’s going to burn you for it. So I’m not wanting to see any Bernard or Matt Milano or DB blitzes. Not unless it is strategically placed. I’m fine with a couple, but do not make this your identity. Do not rely on Bosa, on Rouso, Dion Walker. Same thing with Ed Oliver, maybe TJ Sanders. Who knows? Stick with organic pressure on this one. I am not suggesting, I am hoping that we don’t, you know, like make a ton of blitz packages as part of our identity. I just don’t like the way that that would look at. So, pressure, don’t blitz him. Make sure you press on the line. I think that we can get this done. Moving on. Passing concepts. What is he like in play action screen? No play action. Let’s see what’s going on here in play action attempts. And granted, this makes sense why his numbers are nowhere near as significantly impressive when he is in play action. Because his team, as mentioned previously, struggles establishing the run. Say that you can’t establish the run. I’m sorry. Play action is not working for you. That’s a prerequisite. No wonder play action is not good for the young man because he has only had 41 drop backs in play action. You can thank the inability to establish a ground game with that one. But when in play action, 63.3% of completion percentage, three touchdowns. No play action, which is 111 dropbacks. Meaning this kid is going to be throwing the football. Not unless our run defense is truly as bad as we think that it is. But more than likely, his team has a hard time establishing that. He’s going to be out of nonplay action for the majority of the game. 77.4% completion percentage, 767 yards and four touchdowns. Quality guy. And as far as screens, right, he’s not a big screen guy. This is not a screen offense. They have only ran 12 all season. Again, that makes sense. The numbers are telling a story here. All right. Can’t run the football. Has a solid average depth of target about eight, which is about top 10 in the league so far. So, I don’t think that we’re going to have to be worrying about a lot of screens. Not unless Mike Frabel goes out there with a game plan to completely confuse Buffalo. Don’t think that a screen is going to be working. And then no screens obviously won’t break. So, now I’m curious, what about passing depth? What are we looking at with our friend here? Deep, deep. 20 plus downfield. Only eight attempts all season. eight. That’s it. Three big time throws only. Like I said, he likes keeping it in front of him. Loves attacking the short portion of the field. 55 attempts from 0 to nine yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s probably going to test our linebackers. He’s probably going to test He’s probably going to test our DBs right here. Right off in the outside, some out routes, some quick throws, some quick reads. Uh medium side of the field, 32 attempts already. And then behind the line of scrimmage, he only has 21 attempts all season long. His completion percentage in medium attempts are at 65.6% completion, and he is deadly in the short game at an 81.8% completion percentage. Most of his touchdown throws are obviously being taken control of with yards after the catch. So, something to consider there. Where does he like to throw the football? Where is he good at throwing the football? all over. Look, I got to tell you, this is impressive. Typically, when you end up looking at a lot of these things right here, right? Like, you will see one portion of the field where a quarterback struggles. Not really seeing that. It’s pretty accurate so far. Maybe I wouldn’t call him accurate, but what I would call him is that his ball placement is perfect. I suppose those are synonymous. I guess you could make an argument right between the two, but looking at this guy right here, this is where we’re at. Solid, solid situation from there. Definitely a team to be taken seriously and not sleepwalk through the first three quarters. I hope last week we learned our lesson. Truth and chill. Bills need to draft Hurricanes Edge Bane Jr. Phenom. Interesting. Paul Costa, Bills depend solely on Superman to win the game. he’s the he’s the only reason they beat the Saints. Um I would be fine if you were to be able to put that into context last year, but for four games in a row we had James Cook go well over 100 yards on the ground. I’d probably credit uh the past two games to James Cook and several of them last year. Like last year, Josh Allen had a broken hand for halfway through the season and it was largely a short pass game and James Cook really being able to eat. So, not the case. That is just false. I always love the Bills versus Patriots game and always have loved this matchup. Bills versus Patriots is more of a rivalry historically in the AFC East. Go Bills. Greetings from Mexico. What’s going on, man? Hope all is well. Texas Longhorn, Anthony Hill, the Bulldogs, CJ Allen, and Buckeye Sunny Styles would be great. Hey guys, listen. We’re 4 and 0 right now. Like, we’re marching our way to the one seed as we speak. I love draft talk, but let’s chill on draft stuff here. If all we require is one Superman play from Josh every single game, we’re doing very well. For sure, man. Like back in the day, we needed Josh Allen to have a Superman game, right? But nowadays, like we just need a Superman play once in Yeah. And that’s fine with me. That is fine with me. I got to get out of got to get our running backs going. We’re overusing Cook big time in early games. We should be handling easier than we have. Cook will be on IR by week six at this rate. Dude is great, but he is not a machine. So, I think that it really boils down into two reasons why Cook has been utilized so heavily. Number one, these games have been relatively close. Not up until the final five or six minutes of the fourth quarter. It’s why Ray Davis has only had like 11 carries thus far. Maybe, maybe, just maybe, Ray Davis has been buming it out at practice. He’s not looking too good. But I think a lot of the reason why James is seeing so much action is because games have been so close. I think that’s kind of where we’re at. We had Daddy B coming in the building. Dan, going to any more Bills games this year? I’m thinking about going to one in December. Um maybe I’ll go to the Eagles game. Maybe I’ll go to a couple of more. It is still up in the air. We have Alfa Rob. I hope Williams doesn’t play. Guy looks like he is lost. Interesting. All right. Anyway, let’s go on ahead and take a look at their defense. Right. So, we have defensive keys for the New England Patriots. Number one, I would like to see a lot more press man coverage. I genuinely believe that we can beat them there. Um, that’s going to allow us to get pressure on the QB. Like, we’ve seen Drake May sack 13 times. I don’t think that they’re going to be able to establish a lot of play action. I would love a lot of disguise coverage. I really hope that they end up covering Stefon Diggs or targeting Stefon Diggs, making that a part of their game plan because I think that’s where they are going to start making mistakes. Punch the football out too. It was just two games ago where New England could not hold on to the football to save their lives in the fumble department. And Buffalo has been an absolute unit in forcing turnovers, in forcing fumbles. Do that, right? work on them damn punching drills because we all know that Stephvenson has been having a very hard time holding on to the football so far. I mean really throughout his career. So would love to force a fumble on Stevenson, flip the field and give Josh Allen yet another opportunity of marching downfield. It’s so funny people cried because Cook only had 44% of the snaps and wanted to be paid. Now that he’s getting RB1 carries, he’s getting too much. I hate our fan base. Oh man, you know what, dude? Like for the most part, um I just kind of take it with a grain of salt because I knew, right? Like I knew, right? Like most people were upset that Cook got what he got and now he’s proving to everybody that he is a third down back, right? He’s succeeding at a third down back and and now people like, “Oh, he’s getting way too much.” Oh, dude. Sometimes people sometimes people are just never happy, right? say that they didn’t have something to complain about, I feel like that their purpose would be gone. You know what I mean? Uh, but I do think that Ray Davis’s carries will escalate a bit more as long as games don’t continue to be as nailbiting all the way into the fourth quarter. I feel like it’s safe to say that James Cook is the most elusive running back in the league. I mean, dude, he is I mean, dude, he is a joy to watch. Like last week when I was watching the Saints game, I was just enamored by his vision, by his practical automatic five yards each and every single touch. He’s talented. He’s super talented. And what makes him so dynamic is that he has been on a pitch count all throughout his collegiate career. And he was on a pitch count for the first three years of his his pro career so far. So, I think that we can make sure that he has a pretty longish career. Let’s just hope that he stays healthy. I think that he can. He has gotten beefier. Uh, which is ideal, and that’s something we’re looking for. Well, for that record, I’m the one only ones who wanted to pay Cook. The rest of y’all said, “Nah, just because we paid him doesn’t mean we should wreck him.” How does that make sense? I mean, like really, how I look at it is this, right? Um, like football, you are going to get injuries, right? It doesn’t matter if you have a decorated injury history or you don’t. Like we saw Maxwell Harrison who did not have a single shred of history suggesting that he had knee problems and he had a non-cont issue like halfway through camp. If, for example, Buffalo, right, is in a close game, yeah, you’re damn right. I want Cook to be out there. I could care less if he has, you know, 30 40 carries per game if it’s that close. You You need your best players out there. If, for example, Buffalo’s up by like 28, like right in the fourth quarter, and he’s still getting all of those carries. Yeah, for sure. I’m upset. But say that it’s a close game and you and you need your best players. You have to have your best players out there, right? We got James turned 43 today. Who’s 43 on the team? because he’s going to have the game of the week. James, happy happy birthday. 43. 43 used to be Bernard, right? He’s eight now. 43 on the Bills. Let me see. 43 on the Bills. Dorian. Dorian Strong. Dorian Strong. CB2. That’s what James is suggesting. Shout out James. Shout out Dorian Strong. Guys, 170 of you are watching me right now on YouTube, 121 on X, 19 on Facebook. All I got to ask folks is if you are in here, do me a favor and hit that thumbs up sign. We need 170 like buttons hit. This propels it out to the YouTube algorithm so we can welcome more friends into this live chat. We are building a community. This show is about you guys. What is on your mind? I want to make sure that I engage with you. So many channels out there ignore their live chat. I try not to do that. I want to make sure everyone’s a part of this show and I feel like everybody should have an opportunity of being able to join our one big happy family. So, hit that thumbs up sign. Let’s match it. 171 viewers all the way up to 171 likes. I think that we can get that going. All right, moving on. Let’s take a look at their defense. What can we do with this team, man? What can we do with this team? All right. Points per game for the New England Patriots. Top 10 in the league, 20.3. They are allowing their opponents. Yards per game, 319. That’s about midway through the league. Points per play 355. That’s 13th in the NFL. 5.6 yards per play. All right. So, you can gain yardage on this squad. Third down conversions, 39.13% of the time a team is converting. That is 19th in the NFL. Fourth down conversion, very good at 33.3. Red zone scoring, bad, very bad. They are the second worst team in the NFL for red zone attempts. This is going to be big because they are going up against the Buffalo Bills offense who’s very good in the red zone. So, this is going to be a key. Let’s go ahead and wait for that for a hot second. We have touchdowns per game 2.5. Run defense. This is going to be a test right here because I have had so many preview segments on this show, folks, where I have come in, I’ve looked at each and every single one of you and I have said, “Hey, you know what, Dan? This is a really good run defense, so it’s probably not going to be a James Cook game.” Every single time I’m proven wrong. And Joe Brady and this team continues to run the football. They say, “Nah, you know what? We don’t buy that. We’re going to run the football.” But statistics suggest that running the football against this defense is not a very good idea. Just something to throw out there. Passing statistics, this is where you can hurt this team. Remember, Christian Gonzalez has barely played this year. Last week, he was on a pitch count. I think these numbers will improve once he’s fully acclimated. I believe Christian Gonzalez will be back to normal as far as his overall pitch count. So, I’m not going to take this and run with it, but I don’t think that it’s going to take them from 29th in the league for a po for opposition completion percentage and put them up into the top five with just one player. I do see a little improvement. I don’t see a bottom of the league all the way up to top five. I see a bottom of the league to about 16th 17th in probably a lot of these categories with Gonzo being back. Something to consider. But for the most part, 29th in the NFL for opposing completion percentage, 71.2%, 8.2 yards per pass. All right, it’s 28. That means that suggests that DBs like to give some cushion at the line of scrimmage. I think Buffalo lives in the middle of the field. I think Buffalo will be able to attack their linebackers, etc. But we shall wait for this here in a second. Pass yards per game, 241 a half. that is 26th in the NFL. Do keep in mind they have like a new safety tandem which has been being tested. Um solid perimeter corners in Carlton Davis. Same thing with Gonzo. I think that you can really attack their slot corner. I think you can attack their linebackers in coverage because with this team’s more of like a physical type defense, not like a finesse type defense. Uh sack percentage 7 7.41. And then as far as turnovers, really not generating a lot of turnovers. Like really not really not taking the football away all too often. And I think these numbers are also skewed based off of that fumble ruski game that we ended up seeing from Raandre Stevenson just a couple of weeks ago. So not the full picture by any stretch of the imagination, but here we are indeed. Moving on. Let’s go on ahead and take a look. Let’s talk about how we could see Josh Allen, James Cook, Josh Palmer, who has been an absolute who has been an absolute disappointment so far. Keon Coleman and Shakir, who is going to have a game. Let’s unpack something here. All right, so we have Deion Dawkins. We have David Edwards, McGovern, Torrance, and Vandermark. For the love of all that is holy. for the love that is that is all of Holy. I hope Spencer Brown is back. I hope Spencer Brown is back, man. Um like Ryan Vandermark is a liability, right? And that’s saying something because you know what? Like people always are very critical of anybody’s offensive line and they’re just like, “Oh, like we have no depth.” Folks, finding quality offensive linemen is very difficult. It is exceptionally difficult. any single team that has a second string offensive lineman being thrown into the mix, there’s going to be a significant regression. It’s just how it is. I’m hoping that Spencer Brown is back. If that is the case, then I feel a lot better because this guy is their best pass rusher in Harold Landry, right? He’s the very best. Followed by you have Milton Williams. Uh he was an offseason acquisition from of course the Philadelphia Eagles. His pass rush grade is at 78.3. He’s going to be having a very good matchup against Osiris Torrance who is probably one of the most slept on offensive lineman on this team. So I’m going to be looking at this matchup specifically. You have McGovern and Christian Barour who is going to be more so of your one tech defensive tackle body eater. He’s probably going to be taking up much of McGovern and Edwards. This is going to open up Milton Williams. We just need Osiris Torrance to be able to make this work, right? Watch out for stunts, too. And so, in case anyone’s unfamiliar with what a stunt is, it is when edge rushers end up switching gap responsibilities. Like, you end up seeing Williams attack our right tackle. Landry goes around and he attacks the A gap rather. Um, so I could see them potentially trying to incorporate that into their plan, but so far I like how the offensive line matches up. Uh, we have Chason as well, uh, who was potentially a guy that’s going to give Dawkins some problems. I’m probably going to choose Dawkins. Solid pass rushing opportunity. But what do we do? How do we attack this? Why have the Patriots been so good against the run? While you’re not seeing a lot of crazy pass rush from this defensive line, what you are seeing is actually some quality play here from run defense. In the linebacker side of things, you have Spalain who is at absolute liability in coverage. His pass rush grade is not up there, but run defense, he’s their runeater. If you want to talk about a guy that is the reason why I think this team is so quality against the run, uh, you’re probably gonna have to go with this guy, Robert Spalain, right? And then with Ellias, he has a 29.4 coverage grade. Here’s key number one for the Buffalo Bills offense. Attack these linebackers in coverage. Do it, do it, do it, do it. I love a Khalil Shakir game today, folks. I absolutely love it because when you end up looking Marcus Jones coverage grade is only at 57.3. I could really see Shakir attacking the short middle of the field right here. That is key number one. Attack these linebackers. Short quick passes, slants right here from Palmer if necessary. If for example you need that with Carlton Davis has been having a relatively slow game so far or slow season. This is the key for us to eat. attack these guys in coverage. That’s what you need. Next up, you have two safeties who have also been struggling in the coverage department as well. You have Jaylen Hawkins and then you also have Craig Woodson right here. Brand new safety tandem. I think you can go on ahead and knock this out. Maybe Duggar ends up getting put into the conversation as well. That is a different conversation. Perimeter, I’m probably staying away from the perimeter to be honest with you. Maybe Keon Coleman, a couple of targets. This smells like a two reception game from Keon Coleman, especially seeing who is going to be covering him and Christian Gonzalez. I think that if we try to establish the run, I think we need to be testing the perimeter. I would absolutely love for us to have a couple of pitches, just go out ahead and go outside of the numbers and be able to attack, especially with Christian Gonzalez in the run game. quality and coverage quarterback, but like his size really doesn’t suggest that he’s going to be able to bring down Cook. In fact, I like this actually. I actually like so attempting to establish the run anyway, but being able to specifically attack the left side of their secondary because Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez, although that his statistics obviously are skewed since he’s only played, I mean, half of a game so far, I think that this is a way where Cook can really go on ahead with a zone run scheme and attack this side of the field outside of the numbers. So key number one, make sure you go on ahead and you attack Ellis and Spalain in coverage situations. I see a big game from Shakir. I see a big game from Dalton Concincaid as well. Shout out Dalton Concincaid. I’d probably stay away from Palmer. I’d stay away from Coleman. This is a Shakir and a Dalton Concincaid game. And this is a James Cook in the receiving game sort of strategy. and then also being able to attack that left side of the field, testing Gonzalez and testing Marcus Jones in of course coverage possibilities or these outside runs followed by that. Again, play clean and complimentary football. Don’t shoot yourself in the damn foot for the love of God, dude. 11 penalties last week was about ready to have me crash out. I cannot have that happen. We went from one of the least penalized teams in the NFL and we said, “Hold my beer. Let’s catch up and draw as many penalties as we did for the first three games of the season.” Don’t want that. Play clean, efficient football in our brand new uniforms and we should be okay. So, as far as final score prediction, like how I see this game going, I think Buffalo ends up putting up 30 points. Again, I’m going to continue to say that Buffalo puts up 30 points until proven. Otherwise, while I’m encouraged that Ed Oliver, Matt Milano will be back, I do think New England is going to have their share of wins because this team has a significant tackling problem. And so, I think that we’re going to get burned by yards after the catch, yards after contact a little bit. Unfortunately, I could see this game being 3127. In fact, that’s what I’m going to say. 3127 Buffalo Bills. We’re probably going to have a lot of people in my live playbyplay reaction live chat saying, “Oh, it’s over. I can’t believe we’re playing this close to the Patriots.” That’s a prediction that is always correct. Um, but yeah, I do see this game being close. I do see the Buffalo Bills winning this one. Uh, so the Buffalo Bills are just a better team at home, right? Uh, we have not won a game. I I read a statistic that Drake May, while Drake May has been the quarterback for the New England Patriots, that team has never beat a team that is above 500. That’s a real stat. And surprisingly enough, although Drake didn’t obviously start for the first. Um, so with that being said, at home, I’m going to give the edge to Buffalo. That’s what I’m thinking. Let’s see. Go Bills, Ivan and me. Go Bills, my friend. I appreciate that. It was happy, Wolverine. Ah, look at this. Look at this. Blake is coming in with a question. Dan, how is Vandermark a liability? He had three bad reps in the game. That’s not a liability. That’s great for a backup to a backup compared to when he was so compared to his number being called last year to last week, especially against the team that was toward the bottom of the league for overall pressure rate. That’s why I would say that he’s a liability. And sometimes those three reps are very integral to a game, right? I just trust Spencer Brown a bit more against Landry than Vandermark. He’s a quality backup. He’s good, but some of those three reps ve very concerning. If Spencer Brown is healthy, I would like Spencer Brown out there. I’m okay if Vandermark is playing, but I would feel a hell of a lot more comfortable if our starter was out if of course he is ready. Dan, we have four players that can come off of IR. Harrison Bass, Tylen Greybel, and Gabe Davis. And do you think they all come back? Because if not, they will have to be out for the year. I mean, it’s a good question, right? Gabe Davis has only ever been on the practice squad, right? So, I’m curious to see what we do with them. I think Harrison will be activated. Bass, I’m not so sure. This kicker situation is a very intriguing talking point. I don’t know if Matt Prader is capable of kicking in the wind right in Buffalo. And some people could say, oh, like he was in Denver like, and so the wind in Buffalo is a lot different from Denver have different air quality. So, who knows what they’re playing with Tyler Basses. That that is a question with Tylen Greybel. Um, maybe say that anybody is not activated, I think it’s going to be Greyel. If anybody, if anybody, Spidey is coming into the equation. We were nervous about the Jets after they had a great game in week one against the Steelers and now we’re nervous because they had a good game against the trash Panthers. We should win. Bills coming out swinging against a hated rival on Sunday Night Football. We got this one. I like this. I mean, I would have cried, too, but we won the next however many after that. Who cares about M. Jones game two years ago? Oh my god, these guys. All right, folks. That’s going to have to do it for another edition of your favorites morning show on the Buffalo Bills. All right, guys. My name is Dan Mitchell. I’m live Monday through Friday at 10 a.m. EST each and every single weekday. Do me a favor, guys. Hit that thumbs up sign, subscribe. Anybody that was tuning in to the replay of this episode, I highly suggest that you turn on bell notifications because I would love for each and every single one of you to tune in live. Man, we’re building a great community over here. I try to keep it as conversational as humanly possible. Um, I will see you on Fourth and Forever here in a little less than two hours. And I’ll see you on the AFC East round table this evening. Thank you so much for tuning in, boys and girls. And uh we’ll see you later. Love y’all.

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The Buffalo Bills face off against their division rival, the New England Patriots, and this matchup could have major AFC East implications. In this video, I break down the keys for the Bills to walk away with the win — from Josh Allen’s role in attacking the Patriots’ defense, to how the Bills can establish James Cook in the run game, and why slowing down the Patriots’ ground attack is absolutely crucial.

We’ll also look at the biggest matchups to watch, potential X-factors, and what the Bills must do to avoid costly mistakes that could swing the game in New England’s favor.

If the Bills want to continue their push for the AFC East crown, this is a must-execute game plan.

Bills Mafia — let me know in the comments what YOU think is the biggest key to victory!

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