Detroit Lions vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction | NFL Week 5 Picks | 10/5/25
Next spot on the board, 4:25 PM Eastern. We have the Detroit Lions at the Cincinnati Bengals Payor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. 78 Fahrenheit, sunny, 5mile per hour winds. Uh let’s go into the line history here for this one. And the cash flow for Lions Bengals. I had this set up for my Survivor. I switched things around with my survivor plan so that I would be able to use to just start fading the Bengals uh you know weekly. It’s a little uncomforting that they’re getting demolished at this rate but and and I’ve you know I won the Survivor two years ago, not last year, but the year before. People would tell you never don’t bet Thursdays and don’t bet road teams. And and maybe I agree with the Thursdays, but road teams I have no problem backing in Survivor. This look ahead was seven and a half and it moved uh to well it seven and a half was look ahead opened up Sunday night at 8 and a half then it got to nine to 10 to 10 and a half. Uh I’m not looking at u I don’t want these giant spreads in in games where you just it’s more of a business trip. You always want to get in and out and stay healthy. the look ahead total was 49 and a half. It’s again 49 and a half. I uh you know hammered here um the when when the Lions went to Baltimore and the people would keep telling you that golf can’t play outdoors and then I provided statistical proof that that’s not the case, you know. So I have no concern here about the Lions needing to or golf playing outdoors. None. None at all here. Uh so let’s get into the cash flow for this one. We have 92% of the Oh, it just switched. 87% of the tickets, 94% of the cash on Detroit. 92% of tickets and 92% of cash on the over. We have uh for the Lions, their passing offense 10th in the league, 226 yards per game. It hasn’t really it’s it’s they’re they’re in a rhythm right now that’s absolutely clear here. Uh Bernie says no signs here. Lines have Kansas City next week. I always worry about golf in these spots. Sometimes we see those three or four interceptions game. I worry this is sleepy spot because of next week. I don’t think anybody would want Yeah, I this is I I imagine that they take care of business, but I the only reason why I’m really spending time on is to decide if I’m going to use it for my survivor. The red zone offense fourth in league. 73.7% of the time they’re catching touchdowns. Third down offense 11th. 41.5% of the time they’re converting. Pass defense has been good. Their defense has been good. Uh their pass rush is stepping up. It took them a few games. Their third down defense has been a problem this year. 41.7% conversion rate for the opposition. Uh their red zone defense is 19th. They’re allowing touchdowns 61.7 or sorry, 61.5% of the time. And the rush defense has been very good, better than I expected it to be. The Lions coming off an impressive 34-10 victory over the Browns. Goff was held to a season low in yards and completion rate, but still led the offense to 34 points because they went perfect three for three in the red zone. Goff 16 and 27 for 168 yards, two touchdowns, and interception. Among St. Brown caught seven passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns, six touchdowns over his last three games for Among Ra St. Brown. Jir Gibbs finished with 15 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown. The pass rush again looks strong. Aiden Hutchinson had two sacks and four four quarterback hits himself. Rest of the team had a sack and five quarterback hits. Hutchinson has 11 and a half sacks over his last nine games dating back to last year. The defense held the Browns to three of 14 on third down, one of two in the red zone. DJ Reed and Kirby Joseph had interceptions. Cleave Raymond returned to punt 65 yards for a score. Now, they hadish injuries uh especially to their secondary. DJ Reid carded off the field in the second half. He’s going to be placed on IR with a hamstring injury. Terion Arnold was hurt during the game. It’s not expected to be serious. We’ll find out. Zack Cunningham was in inactive with a hamstring injury. He’s listed as questionable. Marcus Davenport is not coming back until week seven from the IR. Uh then let’s talk about the Bengals. You know, they are their rushing offense is getting 50 yards per game. That’s 30 less than the second worst rushing offense in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their passing offense 155.3. I mean, it’s just it’s just a train wreck. Their third down defense is 30th in the league. Their rush defense 26, red zone defense 24th. They’re not pro put putting delivering any pressure whatsoever coming off their second straight lopsided loss. I mean, it’s do you really want to fade a team that’s lost their last two games 76-13 and now and those were both on the roads. Now they’re coming back home. They were out gained 512 to 159 in Denver. Short week. Is Browning gonna start? He’s looked horrific. T. Higgins led receivers with three catches for 32 yards. Jamar Chase was held to five catches for 23 yards. Chase Brown ran 10 times for 40 yards. Now, that’s better than running 10 times for three yards like he done the week before. Bengals had nine first downs, two of 11 on third down. Bengals didn’t cross midfield after that opening field goal. Their defense is terrible. They allowed the Broncos to have 29 first downs. Denver eight to 14 on third down, three of four in the red zone. Pass rush was nowhere to be found. Zero sacks, one quarterback hit. Shamar Stewart inactive with ankle injury. They could really use him and it’s possible he comes back here. Demetrius Knight had an interception. Is there anything that interests you here? Troy Lions Bengals? Absolutely not. Nothing interests me in this game. I really have no value in this game except I think that this is Browning’s last year in the NFL. The offensive line is as bad as as expected. It has been for years. Nothing’s changed. The defense is a pushover. Soft coverage. Somehow they’re grading out pretty well per PFF, but I mean they, you know, the Browns, the Vikings, the Jags, pretty easy strength of schedule and this this Lions team. I mean, I do think that we’re going to see regression from this Lions team. I think what we’ve seen recently is a little bit fraudulent a little bit. You know, look at what they did versus the Browns 19 to9 noise adjusted score. What they did against the Ravens. How impressive is that? What with what we know that Ravens defense to be? It’s really hard to give you a side in this game, but I did find something that blew my mind looking at this market. So, the first thing I was looking at was home teams that closed as dogs of 10 plus when 60% of the money or more on the road team spread. The home team is six and two ATS, two- seven straight up. In non-conference, four-0 ATS, 0 and five straight up. So, they cover a perfect 100% of the time in that non-conference role. However, how about this one? Home dogs between plus 10 and plus 11 in the first 10 weeks of the season. Jimmy 4 and0 ATS, three- one straight up. Insane. Home dogs. First 10 weeks of the season between plus 10 plus 11. Three- one straight up. So, I uh I’m not moving on this game. I have no interest in either the side of total. No way I can bet the Bengals with Browning and no way I can bet the Lions knowing that the market is um is like this off of two what could potentially be fraudulent wins because that off and I keep coming back to that offensive line which is great on the tackle positions pretty bad so far on the interior. I wish the Bengals didn’t get destroyed again because right it makes the Lions as a survivor a little less appealing. And I switched everything around. I’m set up till week eight, but I switched it around. I initially was going to use the Bills against the Patriots here and I switched the Bills last week. I still may use the Lion Survivor. I think the Rams is the Survivor pick this week. Let’s roll on. a a game I I mean, do you have any interest in the total in that one and the Bengals? I mean, it’s No. No. 49 and a half. I mean, if if if and I know it’s probably, but if if the Lions just, you know, don’t try to do too much and just are focused on Kansas City the following week, it does kind of set up four and under. The Bengals are not going to be able to score easily. Um, so I I I may look at the under. I’m certainly not going to bet it right
Tune in as Jimmy (@JimmyTheBag) and Troy Torrence (@TroyTorrence11) preview and predict the week 5 matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Cincinnati Bengals.
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