Winnipeg Jets Preseason Questions: Samberg’s Injury & Connor’s Contract Talks

Winnipeg Jets Preseason Questions: Samberg’s Injury & Connor’s Contract Talks

[Music] Morat, listen. The biggest question, I guess, is the blue line. And for the longest time, we’ve been saying, what the hell are they going to do at the end of training camp with these nine guys on one ways? Well, unfortunately, they might not have to make that decision because of the Dylan Samberg injury. Morat, this could be six to eight weeks. I mean, we could be talking about the end of November, worst case scenario based on that that timeline. Um, what’s the best course of moving forward without such an important guy in that top four and Dylan Samberg based on the players available to Scott Arneal? I mean, I don’t think fans are going to like this answer, but I think the best case moving forward is just to reframe your expectations. There is no player that’s going to step into tough minutes alongside Neil Pian and do what Dylan Samberg did. We were so very impressed with Hayden Flurry last year going from long shot to make the team to the team to the third pair. He was great there and then in the top four well he and Neil Pian went against tough opposition and got smoked. They were outscored 95. They were out shot I think it was 104 to 81. Like this was a pairing that was buried in their own zone against top six competition. So if you promote Flurry again, I don’t think you do it expecting that pair to be able to play its normal tough minutes that Samberg does and beat it the way that Samberg normally does. That is a problem. The other problem is there’s no obvious solution. I mean, I can pick apart those numbers and say, okay, well, you know, Flurry is a capable third pairing defenseman and in the top four he’s out of his out of his element a little bit. But then what would you say about Logan Stanley if they try him in that situation or his pivots against the the speed and skill of the top six on other teams? That’s going to be a problem. Uh Villain a long shot to to make the team um and have a really solid impact or even win a job. Is he going to end up in that role? No, I don’t think that’s what’s going to happen. Are you going to ask Colin Miller to play on his offhand side? Uh there really aren’t ways for me to look at this and say the Jets are going to plug somebody in, the chemistry is going to be amazing, and they’re going to win those matchups. It’s going to be about mitigating how tough it is, treading water, and hoping that by, you know, Samberg’s return, Adam Lowry’s return, whatever else it’s all going to be, that they’re in a spot where now their healthy lineup can take over and drag them back towards the top of the Western Conference standings. Uh, I won’t hold you to this, but if you had to guess today about that opening night lineup on the blue line, I mean, I think we can lock in Moresy and Dlo. Uh, we know that Neil Peon will be playing with somebody. How does the rest of the uh I mean, if you had to take a guess right now, um, what what do you think Arie’s filling out that that time sheet? Yeah, I’m going with past history and I’m going to suggest that Hayden Flurry reunites with Neil Pianc on that second pair. And if that’s the case, uh, Braden Shen, Luke Shen, for me, has been the anchor of the third pair. I think that Logan Stanley is probably first in line on account of his place in the death chart. Fact that he’s a lefty. I don’t think they’re immediately going to make Colin Miller play on his offense side, though I do like Miller. I don’t think it’s Villa Hannah. So, yeah, I’m saying uh I’m saying Flurry and Pian. And then I am saying Chen Stanley pairing. That’s what I am guessing today. Yeah, that is uh that certainly has some things going for that pairing, but it would also be a uh might be a bit of a white knuckle ride at times if those guys are out for the uh for the Winnipeg Jets. Um I am interested, you know, we’ve seen a lot more of Villy over the last kind of week or so. Um you know, he played some big minutes last night, got a chance to work in in on the power play. Um, how much do you think this Samberg injury changes if anything for Villy? And might this extended period of time like I don’t think it’s going to be the same lineup each and every night. Like is this maybe a little bit of an opening for him to get a chance to play at some point and maybe show that he’s a better option than a couple of the other guys they have in that spot while they have the they don’t they’re not forced to throw him on waiverss. Yeah, it’s you know the one thing you’re sure of if you’re thinking about Villa Hanela is anything can happen to impact his trajectory like when he was 18 years old and the Jets drafted him in June. Nobody. I mean, I think we were all Trouba had been traded, right? So, that helped bring the pick back that that got Han. Cherro and Meyer signing elsewhere. We could have predicted that. Dustin Bufflin’s sudden disappearance. Nobody saw that coming. Nathan Bolio was hurt. Josh Morrisy missed some time as well. I think Demetri Kulakov had to step away from the team. Like, that was a thin Jets lineup. And all of a sudden you have Villa playing as an 18year-old scoring his first goal against Pittsburgh well faster than anybody would have imagined. The seas parted for him and then to see what’s happened since then where the seas don’t part for him. gets called up and not played or um co was complicated for a lot of people but to to be on the taxi squad for over a month and not play at the AHL or NHL level. It was pretty he said great luck and awful luck and then you get into the injuries all that sort of stuff. So, somebody put it to me. What if this situation with Samberg’s injury is just one more way for him to have an NHL job but never get into the lineup? It wouldn’t that just be part of Villa Hano’s track record? Um, I’ll end that thought just by saying there is one way it could work out really well for him and it’s if you like that stylistic opposite of Villa Han and Luke Shen on that third pair where Shen’s the heavy duty, where Han’s the puck movement. If there’s chemistry, if there’s a rotation that gets Han even a look there, um maybe that opens up, but I still see him as eight of eight amongst Jets healthy blue liners. Yeah, I I I’m here for like listen, I’m dubious on a Stanley Shen pairing. I mean, I could see Stanley playing with Colin Miller if if that’s the way they they go. Um but I mean, if Luke Shen is in the lineup, I mean, I think I’d have some time for seeing Colin Miller play on the left side. It’s not like it hasn’t happened before or giving Villy a bit of an a bit of a chance to see if he can do because Morat I mean when you look at the Stan Shenley pairing like listen it won’t be fun to go in front of the net and the coaches will love and all that but I mean just getting the puck out of your own zone to me could be uh a significant challenge at times. Yeah, I think that would be that would be an item for that for that pairing for sure. Chen was a little bit better at exit passes than maybe I anticipated when he came over. That’s fair. Um, but that I think they did get buried in their zone at times during the playoffs and I mean Shen was hurt as well and all all the it wasn’t a good look to be honest and I think that teams could get to the front of the net even if they have to face some pain there because the breakdowns would just be there. The the the coverage would have lapses in it and then the foot speed wouldn’t be there to kind of get back into space. I think there’d be a lot of chances against there. One of Arnil’s options or Dean Chennowith’s options if you prefer um would be a rotation where sometimes it is Stanley Miller, sometimes it’s Hala Shen and then you ideally get a little bit more complimentary skill sets amongst that. Um but you know I’ll I’ll believe that when I see it. I think that there’s a depth chart and a pecking order and uh and and I guess I’m just as I’m just approaching it with curiosity. I’m trying to keep an open mind. Marat, uh I I have to ask you about just your reaction. Uh what was the sticker shock yesterday when you uh saw the tweet that Kappris got 17 a year for eight years with the Minnesota Wild? I think. Yeah. You what would you call that? Two metric Connor Halabucks. Like Yeah. It’s a hell of a shley. Yeah, put those two together. I mean, I think we’ve all been expecting sticker shock because we already had to go through the he turned down 16 million and it’s going to be more than that. So, that that’s there. There is sticker shock to it for me and and I think that that will be part of my response to it. The other thing is another strong part of the response is that it’s going to be so much easier for players who are really good but not Capriov good to ask for not 17 million but most of that like 12 13 14 um you’re going to see some secondary star players earning that kind of money uh because this because Capriov has served to stretch things out a little bit and I think that that might change the dynamic a little bit for the next few years. Um, if you know of any high-profile 90 plus point uh pending UFA forwards that you want to talk about, I think that it might impact their deals as well. Uh, like that’s going to change the game a little bit. Um, and then the other thing, the other takeaway specifically with Capriovv for me is just Minnesota wanted their guy, didn’t want him to walk to UFA, has been clear they didn’t want to get out bid by any NHL team that wasn’t ever going to come between them. He was number one and he was willing to walk if need be. You put that all together and you have a situation where they really had to pony up to keep their guy and that’s going to be a decision that defines their franchise for the next eight seasons. If you’re looking at Winnipeg, you’re grateful that Hella Buck and Shley signed when they did. I mean, things are changing and I guess, you know, just thinking about Winnipeg as well, I assume they go eight with Connor if they can. Is there a world in which they go short term? Is there like I don’t know the timing of how these cap increases have happened and how these UFA contracts have come about could accidentally define what a lot of the competition looks like over the next few years just because of how much each team had to pay its guy to keep them. Hey uh um you know there’s been uh many reports and it seems to be like you know the Jets and Kyle Connor are you know working towards getting this deal done and they’re having many conversations. We keep on hearing it’s the structure of the contract. I mean, not necessarily maybe the AAV or the length of the term, but the structure, which to me says bonuses. And I mean, say what you want about the the the money that Kappersoft’s getting a year. Apparently, it’s also structured with a $1 million base salary and $16 million check when he shows up at the start of the year every year. Why do you think the structure of the contract is problematic, if you will, for the Winnipeg Jets? Yeah, it’s a it’s a great question. And if you want to talk about reports of bonuses being important, go back to two weeks ago on your own show, we were talking about it. Um, so that’s something that that I’ve sort of written about uh at at some amount of length at the Athletic Now, and I think it is a really important question. I think from a player agent’s point of view, I I’ll leave Connor out of this. I’m not inside Conor’s head, but you can make you can make some assumptions from an agent’s point of view that the goal is to put as much money in your client’s hands as possible. You might care a little bit about the AAV. You might care about where that makes a player in the pecking order leaguewide. You might want the team to be able to build around him depending on what the the client wants for for himself and for his team. But mostly you want to make your client as much money as you can. And one of the ways to do that other than just a really high annual value is is signing bonuses. And absolutely right 16 of $17 million um on average is signing bonus. If I recall correctly, even for the first three years of Capriovv, if I remember this from Puckpedia, it’s something like $18 million is signing bonus to get that money in a lump sum at the beginning, a little bit front-loaded, but all at once to kick off the year. Well, you want to get into wealth generation and wealth management. I’m sure that Caprial has a team of people who can turn that into an inordinate amount of wealth relative to if he just got his salary and is like in increments over the course of uh each year of that deal. That matters that that can generate even more wealth than and an extreme amount of wealth that’s coming into him. You look at Vegas with Mitch Marner who I think of as an in sorry as a superior player to to Kyle Connor. Well, 11 out of his 12 million on average is signing bonus or I think this year it’s 11 million signing bonus that he got already uh heading into this. And that’s one way that agents get money in their clients hands and then help generate extra wealth. Uh it’s like you win the lottery. Do you want the lump sum or the the annual payout? Same kind of deal. The math as long as you’re not going to burn it all favors taking it all at once. The Jets have never operated this way. You look for those signing bonuses in Connor Hellabuk’s deal, Mark Schiffley’s deal, Josh Morrisy’s deal, you will not find them. And I don’t mean you won’t find $18 million worth of signing bonus. It’s you won’t find $1 million worth of signing bonus in that. And that is an organizational policy. I don’t know the ins and outs of why uh that that go into that that I think the Jets are going to have to break to to lock Connor down long term. And I think that that’s something that is playing into this grinded out figure out the structure negotiation that they’re having. Yeah. And and listen, I mean, I know it’s easy and I brought this up with John, but you can say, well, they’ve got, you know, the richest owner. I mean, just give them the money. It is just as far as operating a business with a budget. Oh, this is your season tickets. This is what we’re going to make. These are all revenue streams to cut that check on July 1st before I don’t even think I’ve made my second season ticket payment uh at that point on there. I mean essentially what you’re talking about is is I mean unless you’re just sitting there on a hundred million bucks or whatever that is part of the cash flow of the organization you got to get that somewhere and it’s essentially it’s like you got to borrow and I think it would become much more costly for teams that don’t have that uh that fund if you will and I think the Jets from day one have always operated as a as any other business was not kind of going into the uh the tickle trunk, if you will, for uh some of uh David Thompson’s spare change. Yeah, 100%. I think I want to say it’s a book called The Road to Hockey Town, which breaks down the Red Wings sort of dynasty when they were outspending teams in the late 90s. I want to say that’s where this idea came from for me. But I think on the outside, we assume that these extremely wealthy people have that kind of cash flow and are willing to drop it at a moment’s notice if the circumstances need. And in practice, um, moving things around is more difficult. This is this is well above my knowledge level to be clear, but it’s I think comes from that book. I think it might be in Behind the Moves by Craig Cust as well. there is a real a real uh challenge in some cases in those in those situations. It’s not as automatic and again I don’t know the Thompson finances or the how Mark Chipman’s approaching this or what have you. Um but I think that that is a real thing and I think that that is playing a role in in the Kyle Connor negotiations. It would be the first deal of its kind for Winnipeg if all of a sudden you found a substantial signing bonus in it. [Music]

Hustler is joined by Murat Ates of The Athletic to tackle two of the biggest Winnipeg Jets storylines from training camp.

• How will the blue line adjust with Dylan Samberg sidelined 6–8 weeks?
• Who steps up alongside Neal Pionk — Hayden Fleury, Logan Stanley, or Vili Heinola?
• Could Kyle Connor’s new contract reshape the Jets’ salary structure, especially after Kaprizov’s massive deal in Minnesota?

Murat breaks down lineup possibilities, the impact of organizational policies on bonuses, and what it means for the Jets’ long-term outlook.

If you’re a Jets fan wondering how the team navigates these challenges, this conversation has the answers.

📌 Let us know in the comments: What would you do with the Jets’ defensive pairings until Samberg returns?

Topics:
ntro (00:00)
Jets’ blue line questions at camp (00:30)
Dylan Samberg’s injury timeline & impact (01:20)
Who steps up with Neal Pionk? (02:40)
Vili Heinola’s opportunity & past hurdles (05:00)
Defensive pairings debate (07:00)
Risks with a Stanley–Shen pairing (08:00)
Kaprizov’s massive contract & ripple effect (09:20)
Kyle Connor contract implications (10:30)
Signing bonuses vs Jets’ organizational policy (12:30)
Why Winnipeg struggles with contract structure (14:00)
Will Jets break tradition for Connor? (15:30)
Closing thoughts (16:00)

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