ESPN’s Jeff Passan previews the #Mariners ALDS Matchups + The AL MVP Debate | Seattle Sports

ESPN’s Jeff Passan previews the #Mariners ALDS Matchups + The AL MVP Debate | Seattle Sports

Well, so cool to be able to do this as the Mariners wait to see their playoff opponent. The first couple days of the postseason, the wild card round, I think have been incredible, Brock. I’ve really enjoyed just sitting in front of the TV watching baseball non-stop. Jeff Passen’s been doing it from the studios in Bristol and he joins us right now for a rare Thursday appearance. Good morning, Jeffrey. How are you? I am great, gentlemen. How are you? You should be, man. The I think this has been a phenomenal start to the playoffs, right? Oh, it’s been so good. There’s just a lot of really good baseball being played right now and especially a lot of good pitching. Like did the pitching that first day. Uh you can isolate it to starters, you can isolate it to lefthanders. I mean that day we had TKO 7 and 2/3 14 strikeouts. Max Freed 6 and a third shut out. Blake Snell uh seven innings, nine strikeouts. Scar crochet seven and 2/3 11 strikeouts no walks like I’m sorry the starting pitcher is not dead and you see something like that and it’s like oh so maybe the Mariners strength can still be a strength in October maybe starting pitching can still exist this month can you take me behind the scenes and Sulky what’s going on how you guys watching this remember back in the day Sulky did like radio and I think didn’t you walk in the NFL Countdown Room. I was I was doing Countdown to Kickoff with Michael Smith leading up which was the pregame show. And so afterwards we’d go watch in the NFL war room which was insane. Chris Burman and TJ and Mort just holding court. It was so cool. Is that what it’s like for you guys? Yes, it’s me. Uh Kevin Connor is our host. Uh Xavier Scrugs uh former big leaguer, one of the analysts. And Hunter Pence is in this week. And what I’ve learned about Hunter Pence this week is that that man likes coffee. Like there are a couple of times because the the first the first day um you know they’re they’re long days. We’re getting in uh you know on the days with four games we’re getting in at like 10 and we’re not leaving until like we’re getting in at like 10:00 a.m. not leaving until 1:15 or so. So it’s a you know like I I mean we can we can whistle and say a we’re watching baseball so it’s not exactly like we’re doing hard labor here but um every I would say every couple hours Hunter was like I need coffee. I need the energy. I need to keep going. And so I just brought a I brought a literal box of Dunkin Donuts coffee to the office yesterday and and felt like I was uh I was being a good teammate. He it’s not like he played in the old caffeinated uh coffee, the old leaded coffee era uh of baseball, right? So he that’s real coffee, right? Yes, that is that is real coffee. But let’s not discount the the leaded coffee for those who don’t understand that. There used to be two pots of coffee in big league clubouses. Uh one of them labeled in one way or another leted and the other unleted. Uh the unled was uh caffeinated coffee, not decaf. And the leaded was loaded with amphetamines for a long time in baseball. It was just completely acceptable and in standard operating procedure. So yeah, that is that is not an exaggeration. That is literally what it used to be. And we can explain to Ly that leaded and unled is how you used to have to ask for your gas if you want to go back even further to where the reference comes from. All right. So Jeeoff, we’ve been watching obviously with a, you know, not just one eye, but multiple eyes on this Cleveland Detroit series. So let’s start there. Uh, what what have you learned about those two teams and how they could match up against the Mariners in round two? Um, I look, I I don’t want to be the person who necessarily says that um the Seattle Mariners are going to run through both of these teams, right? Um that that has absolutely though been the feeling that I’m getting that the Mariners are just better and that the Guardians and Tigers are essentially exhausting themselves and their bullpens uh just to try and get to the next round. And you can say the same for the for the Yankees and the Red Sox. Uh even I mean even the Dodgers they had they’ve gotten seven innings from Blake Selenos Yamamoto. So it’s not like their bullpen is taxed. Um, but they had to throw a lot of pitchers in the eighth and ninth innings because, uh, we’re not sure if anyone in their bullpen’s really all that good. So, uh, as much as I think that there is a benefit to playing in the wild card round and getting into October and going into that next series, uh, pushed by the momentum of having won one already and and going against on top of that guys who have just been sitting around and regardless of whatever inner squad we play, um, I I’m sorry, but that does not come close to replicating what a playoff game is like. So the the teams that have the buy are coming in cold. But I I personally think that whatever disadvantage you have from sitting for those days, um you gain advantage a by resting and b by your opponent going out and exhausting themselves in putting themselves in a compromised position where uh let’s say it’s Detroit. Teroo’s not going to start until game two. And and that’s a that that is a big advantage I think because the Tigers at that point are going to need to push it to game five in order for Scooble to go out a second time. So just generally historically speaking, Jeff, which team would you rather see? Because I think in this case, Detroit is the overall better roster. They’ve expressed that and expressed it for I don’t know like 160 games second half of last year and first 100 games of this year. I think it’s a better roster, but Cleveland the much hotter team. Just historically, if you’re the Mariners, would you rather face the less talented but hotter team or the more talented but maybe not quite as hot a team? I think hot matters more than talent in in October. Um, and and I that’s weird for me to say because you guys know I I establish uh or I’ve established I think pretty consistently on this show that I go for talent above all else. But in October, that goes out the window a little bit. I think the the answer is I would rather go with a team that’s uh I would rather face a team that’s exhausted. And I I think that the the Guardians are probably going to be a little more exhausted, especially if if you look at what their bullpen has to do. Um their bullpen is their greatest strength. And if their pen is is worn down, and it might be after the the wild card series, uh well, you you know, you got to turn around for a day, fly across the entire country and uh go face a team that is good at working counts and is good at getting it starting pitchers. And then you just chip away and uh Steven vote at that point is is I think going to be scrambling. Th this this entire October for the Guardians and the Tigers, however long it lasts, is going to be a scramble drill. And you can win that way. The chances are just uh significantly diminished to do so. I think what uh so both of those two teams will have thrown their top three pitchers and none of those six uh or three per team would be available for game one on Saturday. So depending on who wins today, who would the Mariners likely face in game one for Detroit or for Cleveland? I mean for Detroit it’s probably going to be Kater Montero. Um, and for Cleveland, I would imagine it would be Joey Cantillo. And and of those two, Cantillo’s been awesome. Uh, and Monttero’s just been sort of workmanlike. So, uh, I I, you know, I I think in in terms of starting pitching, um, the Guardians definitely have the advantage there. The Tigers are the Tigers are just scrging. You know, I I thought maybe Troy Melton, uh, rookie would get the get the nod, but Troy Melton’s the one who gave up the home runs to Brian Rochio, two doubles to Steven Quan and Daniel Steman, and another home run to Bo Naylor yesterday, and essentially blew the game for uh I I you know what, I don’t know if he gave up the Naylor home run, but he he put the Tigers in position to lose yesterday. So, I don’t think Troy Melton’s going to be the guy. Um, but Monttero’s fine. The big thing is they would have scubble back for two and then because of the way the schedule is um you know they they would play Sunday off Monday for travel games Tuesday, Wednesday off Thursday for travel and then school would be on full rest for game. But in theory let’s say the Tigers come away victorious today. In theory the Mariners could win in four. Well, you could win a series without ever having to beat Scooble. Yes, that is correct. Right. I mean, because he can’t start game one unless they really want him to go on short rest. He’s I I can’t imagine I I mean, Terrick Scooel is a bad mama jama. Um, but he’s also going to be a free agent after next season. and the notion of him going and starting on short rest in game one when he’s lined up to go full rest twice in the series. I I just think if you know if this were a different schedule and uh whether because of off days or otherwise he would lined up only once and and that moving him up would allow him to pitch twice in the series, then yeah, I think that’s something that they might consider. But the way it’s lined up right now, I have a hard time believing that they’re going to especially cuz in order to make it work, everyone would have to move up, right? Like it’s not just him. Otherwise, then you’re starting the I mean, like it just Yeah, I don’t I think you’re absolutely But it doesn’t it doesn’t I I think Mike that wouldn’t matter because Scoo’s the guy who everyone else works around. He He is the He is the son of their universe. When Jeff Passen tunes in to whoever the Mariners are going to play on Saturday and you watch the Seattle Mariners in this American League Division Series at home as AL West champs for the first time in 25 years, what will Jeff Pass’s eyes be watching for Seattle specifically? 60′ 6 in from the plate. Who’s standing on the pitcher mound? Is it Brian Woo? And look, today’s big day, right? I mean, he’s throwing today and I think that’s going to going to suggest whether he’s able not just to be on the roster, but to get the game one start or if they postpone it and save him for game three and give him a couple extra days of rest. Um, I think that that to me is the burning question. But if I’m the Mariners right now, I feel pretty good going into this series. I I feel like this is a roster that can win a World Series and uh I’m I’m not sure that there’s anything that’s going to especially in the division series round going to dissuade me from that. You know, once we get to the LCS, I think it’s going to be a little different. Toronto, uh New York, and Boston, whoever among those three emerges from that is going to be a much more talented team and a much more dangerous team and a much better lineup. Um, at least in the case of the Yankees and Blue Jays, the the Red Sox, not so much. But the Red Sox, it’s I think I would take the Red Sox offense over Detroits or uh Cleveland’s. And I would frankly take the Yankees pitching uh and and Toronto’s pitching as well. Boston to me is the the third of of those three teams, but Toronto or New York is is a real roadblock and and it’s going to be a real series if the Mariners advance to the ALCS. Trying to remember you were out here in 22 for the extended inning game against the Astros. Were you out here for that playoff? I sure was. Yeah, I was there for uh that was that was a I I what I remember coming out of that series and and especially at the World Series that year is Astros players saying that the Mariners were the best team that they played and looking at that Mariners team and this Mariners team, this one is so much better. Right. There’s no doubt roster-wise and and how especially since the trade deadline. Yeah. The only the only challenge to to fully agreeing with that 100% is just that this pitching staff has not pitched as well as that one did. I think they still have the same level of talent upside you know all the rest but they just haven’t done it the way that one did and that you know I was kind of writing about this yesterday like you said the pitching’s been great the starting pitching isn’t dead. You’re right except in the games where it is right like it’s just sort of been one or the other. either the guys you mentioned go seven plus or Alex Cor is like, “Yeah, no, we’re good after two. Thanks, Brian Beo. We’ll see you later.” Mike Mike Shields like, “Thanks, Dylan. See, you’ve thrown us three and two/3 shut out, but uh we like our relievers better.” And that’s that’s one thing that I I don’t think the Mariners are going to have the luxury of. I I think the back end of their bullpen is really really good and I think it is trustworthy, but there are elements to the postseason and relief usage now that I look at and I’m like I I don’t think that clubs use relievers the right way. I think that they expose them and that as much as the third time through the order penalty exists for starting pitchers. And for those who don’t know what that is, hitters numbers spike dramatically when they face a starting pitcher for the third time, which is one of the reasons, if not the main reason that you see starting pitchers yanked as early as you do now. Um, San Diego can do that and can go and throw Adrienne Mor home for for two and a third and Mason Miller for one and two/3 of the nastiest stuff you’re ever going to see. Like Mason Miller yesterday was an absolute absurdity and that was so much fun to watch. Like dotting different corners of the zone. 103 up and into a right-hander. 104 down and away to a right-hander which was one of the nastiest pitches I’ve ever seen. A slider up and in against a left-hander at 90 mph and and hitting the corner of the zone. I mean, it’s it’s not just the stuff. It’s not just the velocity, it’s Mason Miller’s ability to put it somewhere. And so you go to him and then finish with Robert Suarez and all of a sudden those five and a third innings that were staring at you, the the bullpen’s just carved. The Mariners don’t have that. Um, you know, I think you’re going to get Andre Munes for an inning. I think you’re going to get Matt Brash for an inning. I think you’re going to get Gabe Spire. Uh, maybe Edward Bazardo. Like the, you know, they’re good. And I enjoy watching Carlos Vargas pitch. Like the the Mariners have some arms, but I would not look at the bullpen and say that is a distinct strength of theirs. Yeah, I I would agree. Just I don’t I don’t enjoy watching Vargas. It’s It’s too wild to ride. So the stuff is great. Oh. Oh, it is. The stuff The stuff is so good, though, man. And maybe this is more like maybe this is more like a we’re going to really appreciate Carlos Rogers in 2027 or 28 when he’s had a couple years under his belt and and the stuff is playing so he’s uh pushed himself into a leverage role. But I I just see how good it can be and it’s like that’s that’s what you need. The the the difference, Brock, between teams that win the World Series for me and teams that don’t, it’s one of two things. either your superstar has a out of his mind series or those those coin flip guys end up on the side that you called and I feel like Carlos Vargas is a coin flip guy where if he’s in four or five outings this postseason and you get three or four good ones out of that then that you know you stack those on top of each other and that’s how a World Series has won. Well, this is so much stinking fun talking playoff baseball and all of the all of the minations and everything that goes with it. But I do have to ask, if you were to and you sit there and you banter with the folks in in ESPN land and folks in baseball, if you were to say right now, Jeffrey, a better, more likely chance of happening, Cal Raleigh wins the MVP, Dan Wilson wins manager of the year. Uh, Cal Raleigh wins MVP. You feel the momentum for that? It feels like it’s shifted back and forth and back and forth. The narratives have gone back and forth and even the odds I think in Vegas have gone a little bit back and forth. The votes are all in now, right? They don’t these voters don’t get to vote based on the playoff competition or the votes all in. That is correct. Votes are in. And yeah, as you sit here today, what’s your gut say? I saw your sound. I think I saw you I think I saw sound of you saying over the last week that you would it’s it’s really tight and it’s impossible and you’d love a co- MVP but ultimately some of the sound I heard was at least still leaning Judge. Do you think in the end that’s ultimately what happens? I think Judge hit like 400 and slug 900 and had more more home runs than anyone over the last month and and Cal Cal did some great things, but uh I think the momentum uh numbers wise is on judge’s side. The momentum narrative-wise is still with Cal. And I have no idea how this one is going to turn out. I do think it’s going to be close. I I don’t think it’s going to be like 23 to seven in terms of first place votes. I think it’ll be, you know, 16, 14, 17, 13, 18, 12, maybe 15, 15, and yet go MVPs. But, uh, a lot of people, I think, have made very compelling cases on both sides. And to me there’s there’s no wrong here because every time I look at it and and I have said judge um as much because I I think it’s important to be consistent and I always I always ask myself can I back up my beliefs in the game the my worldview of the game? Can I argue for it? And can I do so in a manner that’s consistent? And and I feel like me backing Aaron Judge goes back to Mike Trout versus Miguel Cabrera. The year that Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown, I thought Mike Trout was the better player and I still think Mike Trout was the better player. And uh I I look at the candidacies very similarly here. Um Cal Raleigh is doing something absolutely incredible. Uh hitting 60 home runs uh period is awesome. Uh, doing so when playing catcher, even better. Doing so when playing catches and not resting. Uh, mindblowing in in as as good of a season as Cal Raleigh is capable of producing, but but maybe sometimes you just run into guys whose ceilings are a little bit higher. And you could argue that the other way, Jeff. I mean, I you’re I assume in this in this analogy you have Miguel Cabrera as Cal doing something unique and cool, but you could make the argument the other way of like, yeah, Miguel Cabrera had the stats, but what Mike Trout was doing was just flatout more valuable. And you could make that same argument the other way for Cal over Judge. Can you go ahead and do that? Cuz I don’t get what you’re trying to say. Well, because if we’re doing Mike, if we’re doing this as a statsbased argument, okay, well, let’s not get Matt. Whoa. Whoa. Calm down, Mike. If we’re doing this as a statsbased argument, please, by all means, convince me that Cal Raleigh’s stats are better than Aaron Judges. No, I’m not. I’m not going to try. No, I would say Judge is the guy. You can’t. I’m not. You can’t. I get it. I know. I’m saying Judge would be the stats. Okay. Then you’re then you trying to say then you trying to say that uh that Cal Raleigh can be Mike Trout in this situation is is just it’s not right. Just that he’d be flatout more valuable even if the stats didn’t show it. That he was more valuable to his team. But but the No, but the whole the whole argument is that value of the team is derived from numbers. I see what you mean. Okay. Overall numbers. Okay. Yeah. All right. I get that. That makes Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. So, let me let let’s go let’s be dorks for a minute. Jeez. Yeah. Are we ready to talk now? Whoa. All right. I’m sorry. I know. I’m sorry to those who speakers. That’s what happens when you’re That’s what happens when you’re in the back. You’re in the Northeast. How much How much of that leaded coffee have you been drinking over there, Jeffrey? You You know what? I actually drink coffee. I I I’m a I wish I wish that I like coffee. I want to like coffee. I I’ll I’m the guy who if someone says, “Do you want to go get a coffee?” I will. And I will sit through that coffee begrudgingly thinking to myself, why am I drinking this? But do I really like this person enough to be pouring this stuff down my gullet? And it’s kind of embarrassing because I pride myself on having a a pretty good refined pallet. And and I I like I like coffee and cooking more than I do. This is the playoffs. Nobody wants to hear about your coffee. We got one minute left. I I need to We need information here. Quickly, let’s say Brian Woo goes to the is the game three starter. Let’s say it goes in that direction. What would you do in games one, two, and four if you are Dan Wilson? Here’s the thing. If you roast the beans like extra dark, uh I would I would I would go uh Logan Gilbert game one. Uh Luis Castillo game two, George Kirby game four. Okay. And then I don’t What have other teams done? We’ve been sort of debating a little bit, you know, they can go with 13 pitchers, 13 hit, you know, position players, or for a short series like this, is it beneficial for them to take a 14th hitter, maybe even Harry Ford to give them that opportunity to to a pinch hit for Garver late in the game against a lefty? Yeah, you could do that. Or uh or do you bring on like Simon Taylor as a pinch runner? Like they they have they have different options. I think 1412 is the way to go. All right, that’s kind of what I was thinking, but Lyall and I were getting into it. So, all right, good. Well, Jeeoff, as usual, we see things, you know, sometimes similarly and sometimes very differently. So, quite the I mean, there’s a lot of anger built up in your life. Have you been yelling and getting fighting with with Hunter Pence? There was there was just no anger there at all. I sometimes just I guess I don’t know how to calibrate my voice properly sometimes. So, I will be Mr. Rogers next time I come on. Like I’ll even dress I’ll even dress up in a cardigan. That way I’ll I’ll go I’ll go full method for you. Brock will be King Friday and uh I’ll be uh what’s the woman with the big nose who would help you on the way into Neverland? I forget her name, but we’ll see if I can pull that off. All right. Goodbye, Jeff. Thank you. Seriously, we appreciate it on what has been just a really crazy couple of days and an awesome start to the postseason. This weekend’s going to be crazy here and uh we’re looking forward to it. We’ll talk to you on Tuesday. Wish I were there. Hope to see you guys in the ALCS. All right, sounds good, buddy. There you go. There’s Jeff Passen.

ESPN MLB Insider Jeff Passan joins Brock Huard and Mike Salk (Brock & Salk) to break down the wild card round of the playoffs, who the Mariners want to play in the ALDS, the AL MVP race and more.

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0:00 – Takeaways from the Wild Card Round
3:46 – ALDS Opponent: Guardians or Tigers?
10:45 – Mariners ALDS Preview
12:50 – Do the Mariners have enough pitching
17:10 – AL MVP Race
22:00 – Mariners Postseason rotation and roster

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Listen to The Brock & Salk Show weekdays from 6 a.m. – 10 a.m. on Seattle Sports 710 AM or on-demand wherever you listen to podcasts.
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