This Heat Situation Doesn’t Make Any Sense

This Heat Situation Doesn’t Make Any Sense

The Hea found themselves in a very weird spot. They made a few moves to sharpen up the roster along with adding to a young core in hopes of escaping NBA limbo. But what can we expect from them in 2026? Are they good enough to compete in the East? And what can we make of their future? Last season for the Heat wasn’t exactly a great one. Jimmy Butler demanded a trade after claiming he lost his joy for basketball and they dealt him to the Warriors in a five team deal that landed them Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, and DaVon Mitchell. With those three joining a core consisting of Bamabio and Khalil Wear as well as wings like Nicolovic and Haywood Highmith with Eric Spolstra running the show, you could see the makings of a really strong defense. While they never got to an elite level, they did end up in the top 10. Their problems came from their bottom 10 offense, which was primarily responsible for a measly 37 win season. When Jimmy wasn’t with the team, it became glaringly obvious just how much they relied on his isolation scoring in the half court. Tyler Herro broke out and made the All-Star team, but he’s a pretty jumpshot heavy offensive player who relies on screens. And when those actions got bottled up, they had nobody they could turn to. So, they consistently collapsed late in games or against teams who could switch effectively across the board. It was just a collective lack of ball handling, playmaking, and driving talent that gave their offense a hard cap unless Hero or Duncan Robinson got unconsciously hot from three. What’s interesting though is that they actually shot pretty well against Cleveland in the first round. But it didn’t matter because of how badly they got torched. The Cavs posted a 136 offensive rating, which was the highest mark of any four-game stretch ever recorded in the playoffs. And it’s not like they did anything super creative. They took advantage of Miami’s lack of transition defense by playing fast and creating easy opportunities. And in the half court, they made a deliberate effort to put hero in every single action, forcing the Heat to send a double or collapse the paint. Then they find the open man for a three over and over and over again as they shot 44% from outside on extreme volume. All that’s to say Miamiy’s roster was deeply flawed. The offense needed a complete overhaul and they had to find a way to address the glaring defensive weaknesses. Then their off season started with the loss of Duncan Robinson. While that should help the defense, Duncan played a big role in how the offense functioned. Between his ability to shoot on the move and quick decision-making off the catch, he compromised defenses pretty much anytime he used a screen. Then with further development to his handle and inside the arc scoring over the years, he simply turned into one of the league’s more dynamic offball weapons. That really helped unlock Bam, who’s at his best in the twoman game. Whether he’s setting up a dribble handoff or just screening and rolling, he and Duncan had amazing chemistry out of those actions, which is where he got some of his easiest offense. So, the question right now is whether or not they can replace those skills. The obvious answer is that Tyler Herro brings a lot of this and more. He’s also one of the best shooters on the planet. He’s still really effective off of movement and he’s much more versatile off the dribble. That’s the result of a way better handle which also helps him get downhill. That was a very underrated step forward for Hero last season. Early on, he was getting to the rim at a decent rate, but as he saw increased responsibility, he became a lot more jump shot reliant. Then last year, as the lead ball handler, he got to the rim at a nearerhigh rate. His free throw volume followed suit, up from the mid to high twos to four and a half attempts every 75 possessions. So, he was able to really diversify his attack last year. He can play with or without the ball where he’s one of the best outside shooters on the planet. He can use his handle to get inside the arc where he’s a great mid-range scorer. Then, he added a little bit more rim pressure, a couple more free throws while being a very good passer. So, the overall offensive value was enough to get him a spot on the All-Star team. The big thing, though, is that almost all of Hero’s offense comes off of screens, meaning he built some of that chemistry with Bam, hitting him in the short roll or on lobs. The problem is that Hero just got surgery and is set to miss at least the first month or two of the season. Miami is going to be starting their year having lost their best offball shooter and quickest decision maker. Then their best creator and overall playmaker is out for a few weeks. Which begs the question, where are they going to get their offense? Before we get into that, I want to give a huge shout out to Factor for sponsoring this video because this 31-day video series wouldn’t be possible without them. Between the time it takes to research each team and produce these videos while balancing my personal life, I just don’t have time to cook for myself. If you find yourself in a similar situation, whether it be work, kids, or relationships, Factor gives you the option of a quick, easy to prepare, and fresh meal that meets your fitness goals. All you have to do is choose your chef crafted meal from the fridge and pop it in the microwave for 2 minutes. Recently, they’ve doubled the size of their menu to 80 plus rotating weekly meals. So whether you’re craving a steak, a chicken breast, a calorie smart, or vegan option, Factor makes it easier than ever to eat clean. For me personally, it’s bulk season, so I’ve been loving their protein plus options. But no matter who you are, Factor makes it so easy to fit a healthy lifestyle into your daily routine. And that’s why I’m super excited to bring you guys a special offer. Head to factor75.com or click the link below and use code hoop venuef50 to get 50% off plus free breakfast for a year. You heard that right. That’s code hoop venuefb50 atfactor75.com to get 50% off plus free breakfast for a year. Miami’s big move of the offseason was to bring in Norman Powell. The selling point with him is that he’s a flatout elite shooter, especially in offball situations. Over the past three seasons, he’s made 49% of his wide openen threes and 46% off the catch while still hitting a very respectable 35% of his pull-ups. The big difference from Hero or Duncan is that he has the explosive burst to create serious rim pressure. Whether that’s attacking a closeout, playing in transition, or turning the corner off a screen. So, with Powell, you get a lot of that twoman scoring capability back. He can play off of handoffs and get to the three-point shot, slash, or even use the mid-range a little bit. However, he’s not nearly the passer or decision maker of the other two. So, while his overall scoring game provides a muchneeded boost to the offense, it still doesn’t solve the issue of unlocking Bam. The reason this is so important is because with the way Miami’s offense functions, Bam is the focal point. whether he’s handling the ball and setting up action from up top, screening and rolling, facing up and isolating, or posting up, it all sort of runs through or around him. With that said, he really struggles to create easy shots for himself. So, when the ball is in his hands, he ends up taking lots and lots of contested mid-range jumpers. Last season, mid-range shots accounted for 57% of his overall field goal attempts, which was the third most of any player, only behind Demard Rozan and TJ McConnell. He can make them and you’ll get big-time scoring performances, but that just isn’t an efficient shot diet. Remember what I said about Hero improving his interior scoring with more responsibility. It’s been the exact inverse for Ban. For years, he was consistently attempting six or seven shots at the rim and six or seven free throws. That’s tapered off in the last 2 years, now getting just four shots at the rim and less than five free throw attempts. That’s had a direct impact on his scoring efficiency. relative to league average. He went from someone who could give you legitimately efficient scoring to below average for two seasons in a row. Now, the only thing Bam has seriously improved since then is his outside shot. He finally added threes to his shot diet, attempting about three of them every 75 possessions and hitting at a near 36% clip. That’s very respectable shooting and a legitimately nice counter. Just like the interior scoring though, he relies on somebody else to get him open for these opportunities. So again, while Norman Powell diversifies the offense and adds efficient volume scoring with the loss of Duncan and Hero’s injury, they really lack perimeter playmaking, which could result in Bam having an even tougher time. The same goes for secondyear big Khalia Wear. He’s got all of the tools to be a monster play finisher. He’s big, mobile, can get above the rim. He’s got the touch to score from the mid-range or get to the floater, and he can step out and hit the three ball even if he hasn’t yet proven to be a super efficient shooter. However, he lacks strength, doesn’t have a true postgame, and can’t really handle the ball or pass exceptionally well. Not that he can improve in those areas. After all, he’s 21 years old. But for now, it creates a reliance on perimeter shot creation, meaning he too won’t be getting those opportunities. All that’s to say, Miami’s offense could go through some really tough stretches. At times, they’ll be relying on DaVon Mitchell to be a primary pick and roll ball handler. They’ll probably be giving Andrew Wiggins a bunch of isolation touches. then it’s not like their go-to role players are necessarily elite shooters. Between DaVon Mitchell, Nicole Yovic, and Haimeh Hakez, we’re talking about three guys who defenses feel comfortable leaving open. If you look a little bit deeper though, this is year two for Pelo Larson, and he projects to be a great offball shooter. Then in the signing trade for Duncan, they brought in Simone Fontio. He’ll help with the spacing, so I think it’s a solid addition, although that’s quite literally the only thing he brings. As for the draft, they use their number 20 overall pick to take Casper Yakonis. He’s a combo guard who can handle the ball, score in a variety of ways, and make plays for others. Moving forward, he needs to become a more consistent shooter, which could make him a valuable piece of the core. However, these three all have a few things in common. They all lack burst. They all lack explosive athleticism, and none of them really get to the rim, which takes me all the way back to the Tyler Hero discussion, because what does this team actually look like at full strength? I know I said Hero added more rim pressure and foul drawing to his game, but he still lacks in those areas compared to other primary ball handlers. He’s always going to be a limited athlete who doesn’t have an explosive first step, can’t change directions on a whim, and plays below the rim. With that, he’s not lengthy, not very strong. So, against physical playoff defense, he’s just not going to get to the rim as much as you’d want. Ideally, I think he’d be a number two, playing off of a creator who can generate that interior pressure while making things easier for him on the perimeter. Somebody like Jimmy Butler. All jokes aside, the offense really lacks downhill pressure and playmaking. They’re essentially forced to play one way, revolving everything around their two bigs. Yet, neither big is maximized within their skill sets. So, what I’m expecting is for them to trust their offensive talent just enough to keep them from being a bottom of the pack offense. Hero shotmaking, Powell’s volume scoring, Bam or Wiggins going off in spurts, and occasional hot shooting from role players. Then, they’ll lean all the way into the defense, which doesn’t have nearly as many holes. It starts at the point of attack. Da’Von Mitchell is flatout one of the best on ball guards in the NBA. Then they have the flexibility to do basically anything they want behind him because of the personnel in the front court. Bam’s arguably the most versatile defender in the league, capable of switching on to any position or playing any coverage against pick and roll. So there’s no shortage of options when he’s on the court. Also, he can play the four or the five. So lineups will be based on what each situation calls for. If they need more rim protection and rebounding, Khalil Wear was already a big plus in these areas as a rookie. If they need more versatility on the perimeter, they can go with a pairing of Wiggins and Yoic. Both can defend multiple positions. Both have great positioning and instincts when helping. And they’re both big enough to offer secondary rim protection. Then their most recent move of the offseason was to bring back Precious Aua, who’s big, strong, and mobile enough to do just about anything himself. So with an elite primary defender in a highle defensive front court, it feels like the floor is pretty high. The only reason I think they won’t be elite is because there are still multiple weak links to attack. Starting with Hero, we’ve seen that good teams like the Cavs are going to put him in literally every single action and he just doesn’t have any redeeming defensive qualities. Sure, they lost arguably their weakest defender in Duncan Robinson only to replace him with Norman Powell who’s also vulnerable to being attacked. Take a look at the depth chart. The entire back end of their bench are guys who offenses want to force onto the ball and make defend in space. While they should be able to cover for them, and Eric Spolster is an elite defensive coach, I’m still expecting some slippage. All things considered, we’re talking about a team with serious defensive potential that lacks in the most important offensive areas. The offensive talent should be able to get them at least close to average on that end, and they could be a top 10 defense. That’s the quality of a team that’s about 500 or slightly better. But because of Hero’s injury, I think they’ll fall a couple games below. Come playoff time, those offensive flaws are very limiting, especially considering that they’ll likely be facing a top three seed in round one. So, it’s hard for me to see them making much noise. So, where does that leave them moving forward? Because they’re probably not bad enough to get a good lottery pick, but they’re still a ways away from competing for a championship. Luckily, they play in Miami, so anytime a big name becomes available, they’re involved. And with the way this team is structured, it feels like a true superstar offensive talent would just pull everything together perfectly. All of a sudden, Hero goes from an overqualified number one to a perfectly fine number two. Bam and Wear’s offensive games are maximized, and from there, they can prioritize the development of their young guys. So, while the Heat find themselves in a bit of an awkward spot right now, there’s still a lot to look forward to.

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The Miami Heat are in a very unique spot, sharpening up the roster in hopes of escaping “NBA Limbo”. But are they good enough to compete in the East? And what does the future hold?

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