Astros season ON THE BRINK: it’s now or never time!

Astros season ON THE BRINK: it’s now or never time!

[Music] Welcome to Stone Cold Stros. I’m Brandon Strange with Charlie Palo and Josh Jordan. Go follow them on X at Palo and Josh Jordan 975. On today’s episode, the chronic problems of the Astros season are at risk of becoming terminal while the chances of winning the division have entered hospice care. Houston is still standing, but it’s on one leg and his name is Hunter Brown. We’ll talk about the challenges ahead in the final six games. Before that, hit like on the video, subscribe to the channel if you haven’t already. Uh, click the bell for notifications so you’re notified when new episodes drop, and we’re on all your favorite podcasts where you can listen to us on your favorite podcast apps, I should say, where you can listen to the shows. Just go search for Stone Cold Stros. Charlie Josh, welcome in. Uh, it’s not the worstc case scenario because the Guardians and Red Sox also lost Sunday, but it’s about as close to a worstc case scenario as you can get. Houston gets shut out Friday. Frober continues his season’s death spiral Saturday with the game on the line. Jake Myers and Tony Paris Chica set the base running bar to new lows. Uh, Pñena scratched for an oblique in the finale. And then Jason Alexander turns back into a pumpkin. Four outs into the biggest game of the season. Uh Charlie, I’m sure you have lots to say and I’m sure I missed some things. So, what were your final uh or what were your thoughts on the final home series of the season? A better team took a lesser team behind the woodshed and the Mariners came in and wrecked shop. They’re better. You look at their lineup top to bottom, it’s a mismatch with what the Mariners run out versus what the Astros miss run out. Uh depth of starting pitching advantage Seattle. All credit to Jason Alexander for in large part keeping the Astros hopes alive over the last month and a half, but as we’ve mentioned, three of his last four starts he’d been touched up a bit. He hadn’t had that disastrous outing. Well, the Mariners just absolutely pummeled him in that second inning, which by the way came right after José Altuve leads off the bottom of the first with a double and never advances farther than second base. Astros with runners in scoring position over and over and over. Fail, fail, fail. Back end of the Mariners bullpen tighter and Andre Munoz pitching a second and third day in a And while it got hairy a bit there on Saturday, he got the job done as he’s done throughout September as opposed to say Brian Abrau. There is no shame in getting beaten by a better team. I exed after the game ended Sunday night that you look at the teams, it’s really kind of surprising the race was as close as it was. The Mariners have won 15 of their last 16 games. The Astros 15 and 14 over their last 29 games. 29 and 37 since sweeping the Dodgers July 4th weekend. The Mariners right now are a hell of a team. The Astros are a very average team. That said, no furial durges just yet. I know it feels like it. And in the division race, yeah, they’re dead. Down three games and the tiebreaker with the Mariners going home for the Rockies, the Astros going on the road. But the rules dictate, given the standings, the Astros or the absolutely cratering Detroit Tigers have to make the playoffs. The Tigers and Guardians are playing three games Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Well, one of those teams has to lose at least two of those three games. Then this weekend, the Tigers are playing the Red Sox in Boston. One of those teams has to lose at least two of those three games. The Astros need a 5 in one road trip to be likely to get into the playoffs. Not certain. Four and two or worse. and given their body of work the last two and a half months plus of the season, they likely would fall a game short and would not belong in the postseason. But to not coin a phrase, they ain’t dead yet. They’re not. But it was very revealing kind of how that series went down and this has been the Astros all year, right? They’re just so up and down. They they come out and sweep the Rangers and all looks good and then look what they do right there. turn around and give all those games right back to the Mariners. And we’ve seen this all season long. The Astros, they’re just so up and down. And we shouldn’t be surprised. This is who they are. And Charlie’s right. Mariners just played better. They have a better lineup, better starting pitching. It’s really not that close. And their guys, when it mattered, when they had guys on base, their players came through with clutch hits. Many many times we saw Kareah and Pis and Altuve and all these guys, Christian Walker come up with opportunities in ball games and just not get it done. This lineup is it’s just not it. It’s not a good enough offensive lineup. And Charlie’s right. You know, if we look at the season, they’re 23rd in runs, which is about right. In September, they’re actually 14th. But what’s funny is their OPS fell, but their runs improved in September. So, it’s kind of they get better in one area and then they get worse in the other area. So, that’s what’s killing them. And if you just look at what they’re doing, especially in September, I mean, Jesus Sanchez is killing you. I mean, so many that they are just, you can’t count on cleanup hitter, Josh. I saw that, too, when they scratched Pñena. I’m like, he’s hitting fourth and then they bring in Christian Walker to pinch hit the other night. Sees three, what was it? Three fast balls, swung at all of them, and struck out. I mean, they just don’t have the horses right now. And then you lose Pñena for the finale. He’s your best player. And I mean, let’s be real, guys. It it must be something significant. We know how important this game was for the Astros for them to scratch him. I know Dana Brown said this maybe is just a one or two day thing. I I don’t think Pena is missing an a game of this importance. Hell, he’s the only reason you had a chance in game two because of his grand slam. So, this really concerns me because they’re already struggling. This whole lineup is pretty awful after the top three guys. If you take Pñena out of the mix, oh boy, that this is going to be a big challenge here. But Charlie’s right. At the end of the day, if you can win two series against the A’s and the Angels, you have a pretty good chance of making the postseason. The Astros go two- one, two- one. They get to 88 wins. Big problem. They lose the tiebreaker to the Tigers. They lose the tiebreaker to the Guardians. They lose the tiebreaker to the Red Sox. So, they’re going to need one of those teams to stumble or the Astros are going to have to have a fabulous road trip. Four and two does not qualify. In June, that would be a really good trip. Four and two, you’re probably taking your fate out of your own hands. Uh, at that point, uh, five and one is not a lock. And the Astros have not had a winning streak longer than five games all year. They got halfway to doing it by sweeping the Rangers. and then the Mariners kick sand all in their their face and so forth. But just to crystallize further the disparity between what the Mariners are playing and what the Astros are playing, Joseé Altuve’s leadoff double Sunday night was his 50th extra base hit of this season. That leads the Astros. Cal Raleigh has 58 home runs, 80 extra base hits. Julio Rodriguez has 66. Randy Arena has 58. Jorge Palano has 54. Altuve leads the Astros with 50. Now Pñena would have more than Altuve if not for the month missed. But availability and durability are abilities. They matter. You know, among the Mariners stalwart guys. Let me get them in the right order. Julio Rodriguez has missed one game this year. Arena has missed two games this year. Cal Raleigh, a catcher a majority of the time. Plenty of DH games. He’s missed three games all year and their shorts stop JP Crawford has missed four games all season. So that’s basically half their everyday lineup. They’ve been in there truly every day and their quality most of them is just better than their Astros counterparts. Uh let me do it in quick fashion. Catcher Raleigh over Pñena Carini. Uh it’s to the point where anyone over Christian Walker Josh Naylor’s been a hell of a player for Seattle. And how about him starting that seven-run inning? Fundamentals. You’re going to give me a simple bunt base hit, I’ll take it. And that started the floodgates opening up. Palano has absolutely been a better player than Jose Altuve this season if we match them at second base. Pñena over Crawford at short. Uh Auano Suarez flat out better than Carlos Koreah. 47 home runs to 13. Not all those with Seattle, but the better player this season, Suarez in the outfield. A Rosa Arena against whoever’s in left field for the Astros. Julio, if Jake Myers hadn’t missed a game, Julio’s a lot better than Jake Myers. And then right field, Dominic Canzone has an OPS over 800 other than in 28 at bats or whatever it is for Zack Cole. are the Astros more than 400 played appearances among the Taylor Trmelll’s and Cooper Hummels and Jacob Melttons and Morauricio Dubon in the outfield. Astros are bad offense. Mariners are a really good offense compounded by the fact the Mariners compiled all their stuff playing half their games in a way better pitchers park than Dyky Park. So sometimes as as begrudgingly as you need to do it, you need to tip your cap to the better man, the better team. The Mariners came in here and kicked ass. They have earned this division. Only a colossal choke can spare the Astros. Uh seeing their run of full season American League West titles end. But they’re not a garbage team. No run lasts forever. But it hurts. I know if you’re an Astros fan, it hurts. But if you get beat, you get beat. Ask Canel for his last week. Yeah. You know, it’s funny when we talk about uh winning these last two series and and that should put them in position to clench a playoff birth. I’m old enough to remember when we were saying that all Houston had to do was play 500 ball to finish the season and they could clinch the division and they couldn’t even do that. So, and look, there’s Charlie, to your point, there’s no denying that this is anything but a gut punch from a Houston fan perspective. Uh, but if I can offer a bit of perspective, it took a miracle season from Cal Raleigh combined with a league leading number of injuries to Houston for Seattle to overtake Houston in the standings. And it still took them until the very last week of the season to chase them down. Now granted, I know I’m drinking Copium. Um, and I and I think that is, you know, I think it was just reflected on this series. I think it’s just it’s it’s one of the most of it’s one of the sobering parts of the reality checks about where this team is at. We’ve spoken at Nauseium about the talent attrition at all levels of the organization, whether it’s letting stars walk, trading away prospects, or the double free agency whiff at first base. And yet up until this point, the Astros would always take a punch and then find a way to counter punch, one more counter punch. And more often than not, they’d find that magic while teams like the Mariners, but especially the Mariners, found epic ways of choking. And so now, you know, we have to deal with what the new reality is. Uh part of that new reality is uh the giant question mark around where you know Jeremy Pena’s health. Josh you mentioned it. It has to be pretty serious otherwise they wouldn’t sit him in a pivotal game a must-win game if you will. Um Charlie I I like we’re talking about obliques. I I know uh it’s I I fear this is more than a two-day thing. I fear this is Dana Brown looking on the bright side of life again. Um Josh voiced his concern about the absence of Pena and what that could mean towards these last six games. Uh you outlined it. Not a lot of other offensive hopes here. What are their chances without Jeremy Pena down the stretch? Their hope rides that in a short series or short set of games, the form chart doesn’t hold. I mean, the Athletics lost 11 nothing to the Pirates on Sunday, then had the long trip home to Sacramento. Uh, the entire American League off Monday, so everyone has the off day heading into six games and six days to finish the season. Uh, the Astros can testify to the explosive abilities of the Athletics offense, right? The A’s came and just kicked the crap out of the Astros four straight at Dyken Park a couple of months ago. Nick Curts, uh, but the Athletics, you know, Brent Rooker, uh, the rookie Jacob Wilson’s hitting 315, still 320. Um, so do the Astros go out there? Javier starts the first game should be Hunter Brown Wednesday. So in case you absolutely have to win to survive the last day of the season, you could come back with Hunter Brown on three days rest if that’s the choice over Javier on 4 days rest and then I suppose it would be FromB’s turn on Thursday which I do want to mention. Obviously the Astros injury toll has been substantial. Uh, I do think with the starting pitching though, it can be overblown until the clock struck midnight on Alexander Sunday night. The Astros got 20 phenomenal starts when taken in in in total from Alexander and Brandon Walter that they don’t get if Ron Blanco’s not hurt or Spencer Aragetti’s hurt. And what Walter and Alexander did was frankly better than it had been any reason to expect. Blanco andor Aragetti to have produced. So if you’re getting to where okay they ran out of viable options for the fifth starter Colt Gordon they gave 12 starts to Lance McCullers. Um there aren’t many teams that have had their top two starters healthy the entire season and while spiral down the drain the last six weeks for the season no one would question Hunter Brown Valdez the Astros two best starting pitchers. They’ve made every start. They’ve been completely healthy. Three of the Mariners top four guys have missed at least a quarter of the season. Garrett Cole didn’t throw one pitch this year for the Yankees. The Rangers ultimately faded out, but they lost Tyler Mey at the All-Star break, Nathan Evaldi the last six weeks of the season. So to just point to, oh, if the Astros hadn’t all had all those starting pitching injuries, nah, not buying that. Especially with a crapola on balance offense. Yordon was the biggest loss of the season, not the pitching injuries. Uh, speaking of obliques, you know who’s also been healthy for the majority of the season outside of the beginning? Christian Walker. And he freaking sucks. Um, also, you know, this argument of, you know, well, you know, yeah, this argument of who’s better, is it him or Breu? Who cares? Is he better than a corpse? Sure, but not by much. Sunday was Walker’s first hit in his last six games. I think we talked about how we know Pena must have been hurt because he didn’t play Sunday. Joe was spot a sat Walker in the in what could have been the swing game on Saturday’s game. That’s how little he values his bat in a pivotal game. They had just they just sat him. They just sat him in place of the backup catcher. $20 million a year to sit for Victor Keratini, who’s your backup catcher, who also had a hit, which by the way, the odds say that that would have been probably the same or more output as Walker. This season is not his fault. This series is not his fault, but as has been the case for most of the season, he hasn’t helped. Uh, and there’s plenty of that to go around. I don’t want to just, you know, make it seem like this is just a bash session on Walker because Josh, you outlined it. Uh, Jesus Sanchez, thanks for nothing. He, that guy batted 200 since coming here. Part of your order, Brandon, you’re part of your order this month. Sanchez in in 16 games this month, hitting 111 with an on base percentage of 231. Walker 19 games this month hitting 203 on base percentage of 247 with an OPS of 566. You’re batting these guys four and five in your lineup every night. You don’t even have one hitter on your team that has 30 home runs. And then you look at other teams and they have guys that have almost twice that many home runs. This is not a fair fight. This offense is just it’s pathetic. Especially middle of the order. I And you’re sitting here sitting Cam Smith and I’m like is he any worse than Jesus Sanchez? I’m not so sure. Walker and Yiner Diaz a one-two tandem of huge disappointments this season. Walker because of the big ticket contract and what he did over the last three years with the Diamondbacks. Yiner, I don’t know about celebrated but turned 27 on Sunday. As a rookie, he was fantastic. His second season, 2024, not nearly as good, but still good. Season three, further decline. Still wildly undisiplined at the plate. OPS dipping back below 700 with his 0 for four in the game uh on Sunday. And let’s add in that at the trade deadline as it worked out, the Astros added Jesus Sanchez and Raone Urias. The Mariners added Josh Naylor and Ahu uh Huanio Suarez who hasn’t hit it worth a lick for average but he popped some home runs as in the Astros Mariner series trade deadline granted the Astros garbage farm system is an inhibiting factor but Jerry Dotto pants Dana Brown in terms of what the Mariners did to upgrade versus what the Astros did to upgrade. And an unfortunate reminder, the Mariners are graded as having, if not the very best, one of the top three farm systems in baseball. The Astros have one of the bottom handful of farm systems in baseball in terms of these franchise trajectories. Uh the reckoning is about here. That’s a that’s a very good point that the reckoning is about here. And part of that reckoning, I think, and we’re look, we’re going to have all off season to go over this and depending on whether Houston can make the playoffs and how far they go, that off season may be longer, it may be shorter. Uh, but we’re going to have a lot of time to talk about it. But I would say that the odds of Christian Walker just given the context of what we saw on Saturday, the fact that they were willing to sit that guy in a big game and thought was like, nah, don’t we, we we’ll just play keratini. The fact that they were willing to make that decision in that moment, in that situation, I think speaks volumes about where they see this guy’s value and whether he’s going to be on this team next year. I would not be surprised in the least to see that guy get shipped away. I think that would be a best case scenario for everybody involved because I think I don’t think Walker wants to be here and I don’t think the fans want him here and he has not worked out from a a team perspective. So, probably a nice enough guy. Uh, you know, was has been a good baseball player. He sucks now. And he makes the problem here worse. And I know there’s a lot of other problems to fill, but first base has not been solved. We are We are once again uh not even a second year into a three-year contract for an aging first baseman, and already we’re looking to pull the rip cord. Final thoughts before we’re out on this episode. Uh just quickly on Walker, his blatant inability to catch up to to high fast balls. Yeah. Um it’s not an open secret. Just everyone knows it. They’re going to wind up near 180 strikeouts for the season. Well, you know who’s going to be at 180 strikeouts for the season? Cal Raleigh. But he has 58 home runs to Christian Walker’s 23. Cal Rley’s also drawn 95 walks to Christian Walker’s 40. So yeah, if they can offload some of that money, they probably have to eat some and maybe can find a taker because the Astros also have this awkward roster. Three more years of Koreah at 22 million per year. Esso Paredes, can he play first base? He’s short. He’s had leg issues. What are they going to do? I mean, I hope they’re not thinking Kareah is short. Move Jeremy Pñena to second. Uh, but they have they have a lot of stuff to deal with. But in terms of this week, I mean, if the Astros, I’m not going to say roll over, spit the bit, choke. They just fail. They’re just not good enough. They’ve been a losing team for two and a half months. If they’re a 500 team the last week of the season, they’ll be out. But if they can go four and two, that gets them to 88 wins. In that case, they would need Detroit to go worse than three and three or Cleveland to go three and three or worse or Boston to go worse than three and three because the Astros lose the tiebreaker to all of them. And again, you know, when Boston plays Detroit, one of those teams has to win at least two. Maybe the Astros will need a sweep in that series. And let’s hope, should it come to it, the Texas Rangers don’t just lay down against the Cleveland Guardians this weekend with a chance to put the Astros out of the playoffs. Yeah, because their losing has continued after they got swept by the Astros. Um, I think what I’m going to pay attention to, and I’m not going to go to the hitting coaches thing, but I’m going to go to the the the overall development idea with the Astros. Aras worse since he got here significantly. Sanchez way worse since he came here. He’s hitting like 200. He was hitting like 250 when he got traded here. And then you look at Christian Walker way worse since coming here. The only new addition that’s actually played better has been Korea. So, and I think maybe that’s more about just him being comfortable and other things like that. So, there is something to, you know, we bring these guys in and they are not performing as well as they were performing with the Marlins or with the Orioles or the Diamondbacks, what have you. There is something to this guys. I’m not going to put it all on a hitting coach or whatever, but when pitchers come here, they usually get better. When hitters come here, they do not. And let’s add fellas, it’s the O bit on the division race. Now, the wild card, keep hope alive faintly if you think, whatever. But the obit on the division race, we had to get a mention in Jake Myers. What the hell? Tony Paris, Chica, what the hell? Brandon, you raised it uh in brief earlier. It’s as if Jose Altuve gave the base running tutorial for the ninth inning of that game. That was unbelievably brain dead base running. And then I don’t know if Paris Chica just locked up that he’s waving him around, pointing to to home that well, you’re dead in the water, so you may as well head toward the dugout at least. Um what an ignaminious way to uh turn out the flame on that game. And then the next night, the Mariners turned out the lights on Dyken Park for 2025, regular season for sure. And that’s the thing, the only upside for the Astros and even getting to the playoffs, they’ll be on the road. I mean, in no way they’re catching the Yankees for the best wild card spot. Uh yeah, Tony Paris Chica has been an abysmal third base coach. His his uh decisions to send hold have been awful all season. he’s basically undefeated in making uh the wrong choice. Um, but I I want to I don’t that’s not my final thought. My final thought is to underscore how much I just really dislike watching ESPN. It’s literally my least favorite broadcast platform when it comes to the sports. I, you know, they make the experience of watching every sport worse. Like every sport. Uh, example 800 happened on Sunday. uh down big on the closeout game of a critical sweep with the division on the line having to listen to Carlos Koreah be interviewed in the top of the third. Now I don’t care if he agreed to do it before the game. Have some situational awareness for doing that. What’s that? $10,000 for talking for a half an inning. Yeah, times are tough. Good work if you can get it. Yeah. No, that that is great work. like I and and I’m sure that that cash will come in handy and and buying whatever uh handbag is next for his wife, but I just felt like from a situational standpoint, like have some awareness. You know, I’m I’m sure in that moment, while, you know, $10,000 is nice, the last thing he wanted to do was answer questions in the middle of the game about a winning culture in Houston, uh, changing positions or about his relationship with Jeremy Pena, who was scratched from the game for being hurt. So, it’s it’s not like they didn’t have 25 other canned Cal Raleigh interviews they could have used as a fallback. Play one of those. Hell, do whatever national broadcast defaults to. find an excuse to bring up show Otani. Anyh who, uh, one last reminder, if you’re watching on YouTube, be sure to click like on the video and if you listen on podcast and apps like Apple or Spotify, give us a five star rating while you’re here. For Charlie and Josh, I’m Brandon saying so long. Thanks for listening. We’ll see you next time. And as always, go [Music]

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