>Okay, now time for the Buffalo of it all. Fans and the betting line agree that the Sabres aren’t terrible but they’re not remotely playoff-calibre. 84 points for the fans, 85 for the sportsbooks.
>The analytical models do not agree. The Athletic says 90 points. HockeyViz says 91. This one says 94. EvolvingHockey says 99.
>What is happening exactly? There’s no easy explanation. The Sabres were 29th in xGoal differential last year and 24th in goal differential, so there’s no big regression effect about to kick in. It all comes down to the roster itself, which on paper doesn’t look very impressive but for these projections, inexplicably looks great and without a ton of weaknesses. You might look at Josh Norris 1C and think “what the hell are they doing,” but the model sees a decent enough player on a roster with a lot of decent enough players. Ryan McLeod, Owen Power, Zach Benson, Alex Tuch, Josh Doan, Jason Zucker, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins — all pretty good to great players. This is a team that’s had abundant weak links for years and seems, maybe, to have patched them up for a change. Add in Dahlin and Thompson, who both profile like superstars, and there you go.
>Would I put money on it? Hell no. But it’s something to watch for.
It was a 92? point pace team for the 70 games we had Dahlin in the roster last year so I don’t think this is nuts
He just has to play 82 games cause it was a 9 point pace team for the 12 games when he was out
2 comments
>Okay, now time for the Buffalo of it all. Fans and the betting line agree that the Sabres aren’t terrible but they’re not remotely playoff-calibre. 84 points for the fans, 85 for the sportsbooks.
>The analytical models do not agree. The Athletic says 90 points. HockeyViz says 91. This one says 94. EvolvingHockey says 99.
>What is happening exactly? There’s no easy explanation. The Sabres were 29th in xGoal differential last year and 24th in goal differential, so there’s no big regression effect about to kick in. It all comes down to the roster itself, which on paper doesn’t look very impressive but for these projections, inexplicably looks great and without a ton of weaknesses. You might look at Josh Norris 1C and think “what the hell are they doing,” but the model sees a decent enough player on a roster with a lot of decent enough players. Ryan McLeod, Owen Power, Zach Benson, Alex Tuch, Josh Doan, Jason Zucker, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins — all pretty good to great players. This is a team that’s had abundant weak links for years and seems, maybe, to have patched them up for a change. Add in Dahlin and Thompson, who both profile like superstars, and there you go.
>Would I put money on it? Hell no. But it’s something to watch for.
It was a 92? point pace team for the 70 games we had Dahlin in the roster last year so I don’t think this is nuts
He just has to play 82 games cause it was a 9 point pace team for the 12 games when he was out