Grading my BOLD Orioles predictions from the 2025 season

Grading my BOLD Orioles predictions from the 2025 season

A lot of things went wrong for the Orioles in 2025, including my bold prediction. So, let’s do a little bit of accountability on those coming up on this episode of the Locked On Orioles podcast. You are Locked On Orioles, your daily Baltimore Orioles podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. Hey there, Orioles fans. Today is Monday, October 6th, 2025, and welcome back in to the Locked on Orioles podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. As always, I’m your host, Connor Nukem. And coming up on today’s episode, I’m going to take a look back at my bold predictions, the four of them that I made in March of 2025 for this year’s Baltimore Orio season. Now, none of them came true. That’s usually what’s going to happen when you make bold predictions that are truly bold. We’re going to run through all four and see if um any of them came anywhere close and then a little bit of Orioles news and notes at the end of the show. But that’s all coming up on this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast, which is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Just download the FanDuel app today. So, back in March, when we were getting ready for an Orioles 2025 season, hoping it would be a third consecutive postseason appearance for the O’s, I did what I usually do on this podcast since 2020 and made some bold predictions for the season. Sometimes you get made fun of for bold predictions, and I think it’s because, well, they’re usually wrong, but that’s because I don’t think some people understand the point of a bold prediction. If you’re going to be actually bold with your prediction, it should be something that doesn’t have a great chance of coming true. If I was just making regular predictions, probably wouldn’t have been as many things that were out on a limb as these were. So, I went back and I jotted down my bold predictions from 2025. And let’s take a look at how I did. My first bold prediction from March for the 2025 Orioles season was that the Orioles would have the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching. My reason was the Orioles in the offseason when they added hitters specifically went after guys who mash lefties. Gary Sanchez as their new backup catcher had been great against lefties. Tyler O’Neal was the second best hitter in baseball in 2024 behind only Aaron Judge in terms of his offensive stats against lefties. And then Ramon Lauraniano had been really good against lefties his whole career. I figured that plus a healthy Adley Rutman, Gunnar Henderson hitting everybody well and Ryan Mount Castle back in that lineup who’s always matched lefties would make this team a real differencem making team. And this was an Orioles squad that was not amazing down the stretch, but overall was still solid against lefties in 2024. And it was something they really addressed in the offseason. Well, it didn’t really happen. The Orioles finished the season 20th in baseball with an 87 team WRC plus against left-handed pitching this season. Their best hitter against lefties, albeit with a minimum of 30 plate appearances, was Alex Jackson, who finished the year as the number three catcher, who had a 178 WRC plus in 32 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year. Now, if you want to talk about a full-time player who was the best against lefties, oddly, it was Cedric Mullins. Now, of course, that doesn’t include the final two months of the season after he was dealt to the Mets at the deadline. But when the Orioles had Mullins, remember when he stopped switch hitting back in 2021, went only left-handed, had the 3030 season, one of the big parts of his resurgence was he hit lefties really well from the left side. And then the next couple of years after that, he was hitting righties really well, but was struggling against lefties. And that’s what brought him kind of back down to earth to never have that 3030 type season. Mullins wasn’t really having that kind of season this year, but he was mashing left-handers and he had been horrible. like borderline unplayable against lefties in 2024. Mullins posted a 144 WRC plus against left-handed pitching with 100 being league average when he was with the Orioles this season. And Raone Lauriano ended up being really good against lefties at a 121 WRC plus, but other than that, it wasn’t a lot of production. Like, yeah, Kobe Mayo, Ramona Reas, Adley Rutman, Jeremiah Jackson, Jordan Westber, they all ended up being better than average against lefties, which is what you’d like to see, but none of them hit to the level I thought they could have against left-handed pitching. And the guys you thought would match, I really identified six position players on this team, now all varying levels of playing time this year, who in theory should have been the guys who hit lefties the best and didn’t do it at all. Tyler O’Neal, he was brought here to hit lefties. Not only did he miss a bunch of time with injury, but when he when he was out there, he went from the second best hitter against lefties in baseball to a 74 WRC plus against them this year. Gunnar Henderson, the reason why he went to an MVP level in 2024 is because he matched lefties almost as well as righties. He still matched righties this year, but dropped down to a 71 WRC plus against lefties. Ryan Mount Castle, always a lefty killer, a 70W wrc plus against lefties. Gary Sanchez again didn’t play a whole lot but 61 wrc plus. Even Dylan Carlson who the Orioles signed to a one-year deal to be a reserve outfielder and definitely played a lot more than we thought because of all the Orioles injuries. He was a switch hitter who had always been so much better from the right side against left-handed pitching in his career. 49 WRC plus. And even Jorge Matteo, who again missed a lot of time with injury, not known for his bat, but even when he’s turned into a bad hitter the last couple of years, he’s still been playable against lefties. 30 W wrc plus for Matteo against left-handed pitching. Like everybody pretty much tanked in that category among even the platoon guys who you would expect to help you out there. I mean, at one point this season, a couple months in, when it was really bad, like right after the Orioles had fired Brandon Hyde in late May, the O’s were on pace to have the worst offense ever in a single season for a team against left-handed pitching in major league history. They did get better as the season went on. So, they got to a respectable 20th out of 30 teams, but a couple months in, they were dead last against lefties and were setting historically low numbers against Southpaws. That’s why it’s a bold prediction, right? But, I mean, they were more like a league average team against lefties for the final four months of the year, but those first two months, it was an absolute disaster. completely tanked this and um was just one of the many reasons why this team won only 75 games this season. Bold prediction number two from before the 2025 season. The Orioles playoff rotation will have zero starters carrying over from the opening day rotation. Now, the first reason this was wrong is that the Orioles didn’t have a playoff rotation because they didn’t make the playoffs. So that takes all of this bold prediction out of there. But we can still dig a little deeper in a magic world where the Orioles with this roster they had at the end of the year would have somehow snuck into the postseason. Now the reasoning I had for making this prediction at the beginning of the year is that neither Grayson Rodriguez nor Kyle Bradish were in the opening day rotation because they were on the injured list, but presumably they were going to return at some point for the Orioles this season. And I thought if they would be good enough, Grayson and Bradish would be number one and two when healthy in their rotation. And then I figured the O’s would make a trade deadline addition. That would be your number three starter. And if you’re in a wild card series, you’re only starting with three guys in your playoff rotation. So that is where that prediction came from. The Orioles opening day rotation ended up being Zack Efflin, Charlie Morton, Dean Kramer, Tomyuki Sugano, and Cade Povich. Those were the five they went with. Say the Orioles had the greatest month of September of all time. And with this roster, you know, find a way to get to 86 wins somehow and snuck into the postseason as a wild card. Their playoff rotation would have definitely been, I think, Kyle Bradish game one, Trevor Rogers game two. Neither of those guys were in the opening day rotation. Both were on the injured list to start the year. And then game three would probably be a flip-flop between Dean Kramer or Tyler Wells. Kramer was in the opening day rotation. Wells was not. So if the Orioles in a fantasy world where you’re just looking at the state of the rotation, you could make an argument that Bradish Rogers Wells is the top three and none of those guys were in the opening day rotation. So I’m going to give myself a tiny bit of credit for that part of it. Now, was it halfway right for any of the right reasons? No. Was it right at all? No, because they won 75 games and didn’t make the postseason at all. Now, at the very least, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells came back and looked good, but we never even saw Grayson Rodriguez. Ended up getting the elbow deb breedment surgery, and good news on him. He’s going to start throwing in October, and the plan is for him to be ready for spring training. It’s a big asterisk on that one with a giant we’ll see about what’s going on with Grayson. But yeah, didn’t make the playoffs at this point becomes moot. Even if they did, I would argue that of my four bold predictions, this one maybe was the closest to coming true. Now, again, you could say, Connor, they they won 75 games. They had to get in the playoffs for this to become true. Yes, but in a random world where they just let teams with 75 wins randomly into the postseason. All three of their starters may not have been from the opening day rotation. So, you know what? I’m giving myself like a two out of 10 on this one instead of like a zero out of 10 I’m getting on most of these. All right, we got two more bold predictions to uh talk about how wrong they were. That’s coming up after this. But first, this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. 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So we are grading my four bold predictions that I did back in March before this 2025. I’ll say uh disastrous oral season. First two not so great. Next two not so great either. My number three Orioles bold prediction was that Adley Rutman would get the most American League MVP votes out of any Orio. My reasoning was that Adley, finally healthy after, you know, his amazing first half and horrible second half in 2024 would bounce back. The Orioles would be a good team and his work as a good catcher would help with his offense. Kind of how I think there’s a really good chance Cal Raleigh, the catcher of the Mariners, wins AL MVP this year. And I also predicted that just with how good Gunnner was in 2024, he’d take enough of a step back that Adley would have a case to get more votes. Now, I didn’t say that Adley would win MVP. I just said he would get the most MVP votes. Well, if anyone’s going to get MVP votes for the Orioles, it may be, you know, a ninth or tenth place vote for Gunnar Henderson. That’s going to be about it because Adley played in only 90 games. He had a 91 WRC plus. That’s 9% worse than a league average hitter when he was out there and was worth 1.2 wins according to fan graphs. That’s not Natalie Rutman’s season. It was multiple injuries each oblique. Didn’t really hit when he was out there. He ended up tied for fifth in fan graphs war among the Orioles position players. Gunner was number one at 4.8. I think he did enough to maybe get some down ballot MVP votes. The bat wasn’t as good for Gunner, but the defense got better. The base running got better. Ryan O’Harn was number two at 2.4. Raone Lauriano number three at 2.3. Remember those are just stats with the Orioles. Those guys were both dealt to the deadline and played the final two months of their season in San Diego. Fourth, Jordan Westber at 1.9 and then tied for fifth, Jackson Holiday, Cedric Mullins, and Adley Rutman all at 1.2. That’s not anybody who’s getting anywhere close or sniffing anything like an MVP vote. He also had less fan graphs war than three Orioles pitchers. Trevor Rogers, Dean Kramer, and even Kade Povich just because of the innings he threw acrewed more war according to fan graphs than Adie Rushman did this year. And again, like Gunnar, you look at the war rankings, I think he was like 11th or 12th in the American League. Voters get to vote a top 10 in the AL. I I think it’s it’s probable that somebody throws Gunnar a ninth or tth place vote. He ends up on the ballot somewhere, but that’s going to be about it. I mean, maybe someone would throw a tenth place vote to someone like Trevor Rogers, but probably more likely he’ll get on a couple Sai Young ballots than on MVP ballots. Otherwise, yeah. Um, missed missed on that one. A lot of Orioles missed on a lot of things that year. This year, missed on that one. My fourth and final bold prediction for the 2025 Orioles season that I did back in March. The Orioles will set a new record for bullpen war in a single season. The reasoning was that the Oz had kind of built a super bullpen. Felix Bautista coming back from Tommy John surgery. Year Canó, Keegan Akin, and you, you know, had the carryovers of Gregory Sto and Sir Anthony Dominguez. You added Andrew Kitridge in free agency and Brian Baker had kind of burst back onto the scene back then in spring training. It was looking like he was going to be a good reliever again for this team. And I figured because they hadn’t added to the rotation as much as they should have. And with Grayson Rodriguez out, they’d be leaning more on the bullpen than the starters than they initially thought. And if those bullpen pitchers pitched up to their abilities, they really could have done something amazing. Now, this was probably my boldest prediction because the MLB record is 9.6 FR by the 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers. That was the year Eric Gier won the Sai Young award in the National League as a closer. That is a a crazy level of bullpen to try and beat, which made it the boldest prediction that I did. Not only did the Orioles finish way back at 1.9 F, they were 23rd in Major League Baseball this season. I was talking about them setting a new Major League record. They were 23rd in just this season at 1.9. The Padres’s had that Super Bullpen. They led the way. They were 7.6 F4. They were still two wins behind that all-time record of the 2003 Dodgers. And you could say, well, Connor, you know, the Orioles traded away Sodto, Baker, Dominguez, and Kitridge at the deadline. Plus, they lost Felix Bautista to a shoulder injury for the season. At that point, you lost essentially, you could argue your five top relievers right around the trade deadline. Perfectly valid argument to make where you could say, you know what, if they had those guys around, the Orioles were a more competitive team, they definitely would have finished higher. And that’s absolutely they definitely would have finished higher than 23rd in baseball had those guys been around for the rest of the year. However, let’s cut off the final two months. Let’s just go through July. You know, up until the trade deadline when those guys were dealt. The Orioles through July were still 23rd in bullpen fir. That was before all those guys went away. So, not only did it go poorly after the deadline when you had a a cast of characters, a bunch of guys auditioning for spots and some of them did well. We saw great appearances from the likes of, you know, Rico Garcia and Dietrich Ends and Cade Strad. But even before you went to all that all those guys and you had all those big names still in the bullpen before the deadline, they weren’t exactly amazing when they went out there to pitch either. So, yeah, that was the boldest one. missed on that one, too. I don’t really feel bad about missing on a lot of these because A, they’re bold predictions. They’re supposed to be ones that have a small chance of coming up, right? And B, this whole oral season was a disaster. Nothing went right. So, it would make sense that my bold predictions for the season uh would go wrong as well. But don’t worry, come next March, I will certainly have a few bold predictions for the Orioles 2026 season. They’ll generally all be positive and hopefully hopefully they turn out a little bit better than this year’s did. Got a couple more things to get to before the end of the show. Got some Orioles news endotes. You know, we’re not really into the offseason yet. That doesn’t start until after the World Series ends. So, we’ve got about a month, but some little things start to happen. Some minor league free agency news and some managerial news coming out. So, I want to get to that to finish off the show right after this. But first, this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast is also brought to you by Monarch Money. Most people can’t name all their financial accounts or even what they’re worth, whether it’s 401ks, properties, or investments. And when you don’t have the full picture, you can end up leaving money on the table. That’s why there is Monarch Money. It’s an all-in-one personal finance tool that brings your entire financial life together in one clean, easy to use interface on your laptop or your phone. Monarch is built for people with busy lives. If you’ve put off organizing your finances, Monarch is for you. Monarch does the heavy lifting for you. You can link all your accounts in minutes, see clear data visuals, get smart categorization of your spending, and finally feel in control of your money without ever touching a spreadsheet. And you can also really work on your finances with a partner. That’s how it really helps me. It helps the two of us easily review finances, keeping a clear view of our financial health week to week and long-term as well. So, don’t let financial opportunity slip through the cracks. Use code locked on MLB at monarchmoney.com in your browser for half off your first year. That’s 50% off your first year at monarchmoney.com with code locked on MLB. So, those were my bold predictions from the 2025 Orioles season that definitely went wrong. Now, let’s finish this up with a couple of pieces of Orioles news and notes. The O’s have made their first minor league signing of the offseason. This one is bringing back a minor leager. Jose Barrero, 27-year-old right-handed hitting infielder. The Orioles have resigned him to a minor league contract with an invite to big league spring training in 2026. This is according to Francis Romero. Barrera had been in the system already. Orioles actually signed him initially to a minor league deal back in July and he spent the remainder of the season in AAA Norfol in the Orio system. Now he wasn’t exactly great. 53 games in Norfol. Barrero had 218 played appearances slashed 190 261 344. That was a 61 WRC plus in AAA. 7% walk rate, 31% strikeout rate, eight home runs and nine stolen bases for Barrerero. He always seemed to hit some big home runs for Norfolk, but otherwise didn’t really do a whole lot when he was out there. However, there were some good signs. He did run the highest hard hit rate of his career at 41% either majors or AAA and he played all around the diamond. Mostly played shorts stop, 39 starts there in AAA. He is a a good defensive shortstop, but the Orioles also started him at second base, third base, right field, and center field to giving the Norfolk a little bit of super utility, which was nice to have on the roster as more Orioles players got injured and more players from the Tides got called up to replace them. Barrerero really had to play a lot down the stretch. Now, Barrerero does have big league experience, 161 career MLB games with both the Reds and the Cardinals, dating back to 2020 when he made his major league debut in the pandemic season. He’s never really had success in the big leagues. He’s got a 36% strikeout rate and a 32 career wrc plus in the majors, but he’s still only 27. He was a former highly ranked prospect when he was in the red system coming up. There was a lot of expectations for him. He just never kind of met them. And at worst, he’ll be back as good AAA depth for 2026. Has a little bit of pop, can play a ton of positions, good defensively, and you never know. There are some skills in there where if the Orioles make some adjustments this off seasonason, could he be the next Jeremiah Jackson? It’s a it’s a very similar profile coming into the system than when Jackson did last offseason. It’s entirely possible. And again, at worst, you hope you don’t need Jose Barrero, but he gives you nice depth to cover some innings, play some positions, get some hits down in TripleA Norfol, and it’s not like he’s 35. He’s he’s 27 and there still could be some good baseball ahead of him. The Orioles obviously liked enough what they saw from him in the final two months that they brought him back on a minor league deal. But speaking of the minor leagues, these are some other players the Orioles could also bring back on minor league deals. But they all at this point were outrighted off the 40man roster at some point this season, but stayed in the organization in AAA and then had the option to choose minor league free agency when the offseason hit. Some players don’t, but most players do when they’re in this situation. And here are all the Orioles who have chosen minor league free agency in the past couple of days and kind of what they did this year and whether or not the O’s may bring them back. First one is Luis F. Castillo, right-handed pitcher who the Orioles got from the Mariners in a small waiver trade back in April when the O’s were just desperate for anyone to start games in the big leagues because of all the injuries. Castillo came over and was then hurt for most of the season. Didn’t pitch in the majors for the Orioles even though he did make a made a couple of starts in the majors for the Mariners before he was placed on waiverss this year. didn’t really pitch much in the system or in the majors. I don’t think the O’s are going to bring him back. Val Machine also uh elected free agency. 32-year-old utility man to the Orio signed to a minor league deal out of the Mexican league lapped off season. Was pretty good in AAA. Hit 18 homers. Had a 118 WRC plus and even got called up and played four games in the big leagues for the Orioles this year. Hit a home run, remember that, in his first play appearance with the O’s this season. but then had that weird play at third base in August when he got the start over there where he just kind of dogged a ball that should have been an inning ending double play only got one out the Orioles gave up like some pivotal insurance runs after that just a weird play and then machine even though he had options was DFAD the next day it was kind of a weird situation because of that not sure the O’s are going to bring him back for next year 25-year-old right-handed hitting outfielder Jordan Adams has also elected free agency Orioles also signed him to a minor league deal last off season. Wasn’t great in TripleA. Had a 79 WRC plus, but a really good defensive outfielder with a lot of speed and the Orioles called him up to do that. He actually appeared in 10 games in the majors for the O’s this year, mostly as a pinch runner or a defensive replacement in the outfield. We didn’t really get to see him hit a whole lot, but he’s kind of an intriguing prospect still at only 25. I think there’s a chance the Orioles would offer him to come back on a minor league deal. Once again, accepting minor league free agency is Taran Vra, who’s kind of been back and forth between minor league deals and free agency and the Orioles over the past couple of years. But he does just keep coming back. He had a 93 WRC plus in AAA Norfick this year playing all around the diamond. Still some injury issues with him, but was much much healthier this year. Kind of past that shoulder injury and did appear in one game in the big leagues for the O’s this season. I would be surprised if Taran Vber signs anywhere else besides the Orioles on a minor league deal to come back to the organization this off season. Next one is Scott Bluette, the right-handed reliever who the Orioles claimed off waiverss twice this year. Didn’t pitch great. Had 23 and third innings, had a 6.17 erra with the O’s in those two stints. Had some good moments, had some bad moments, and then he missed the final few months of the year with an elbow injury. He did come back to pitch on rehab in Triple A for the past couple weeks of the season, but the Orioles never brought him back to the majors. Ended up DFA him when he had to come back off the injured list. But the fact that the Orioles did claim him twice on waiverss tells me they’re probably going to offer him a minor league deal this off seasonason. It’ll kind of just be up to Bowette to see if there’s any better chances for him. But I see the O’s at least pursuing trying to get him back in spring training and fight for a potential bullpen job. Then there is Corbin Martin, the right-hander who the Orioles got off waiverss in 2024 and then called up for the first time in 2025. You know, he had a 58 erra in AAA. Came to the big league 600 erra in 18 innings pitched out of the Orioles bullpen. Had a couple of just like historically horrendous outings. Also had a few really good outings, including Corbin Martin collected two like legitimate high lever saves for the Orioles this season. was eventually DF8 in September when he started really really struggling again but did clear waiverss. He’s another guy who was drafted by Mike Elias in Houston. It’s a 98 mile per hour fast ball with like a 92 mile per hour slider. The Orioles like the stuff enough. I think they will absolutely offer him a minor league deal to come back and and again fight for a bullpen spot in Sarasota next year. But Curt Martin’s a guy who even if he’s not back, I think I’ll remember him from this season just because of those two saves. that crazy extra inning game in Boston, the wild save he had against the Blue Jays right after Felix Bautista went down and the Orioles kind of were trading away all their relievers. I liked some of what we saw from Corin Martin. I think there’s a chance he’ll be back on a minor league deal. And then the final guy is CNL Perez. I mean, remember CNL Perez, 29-year-old lefty who’s been in this organization since 2022. Was a really a huge part of this bullpen for two years. He was really up and down last year in the bullpen. Not nearly as trustworthy. made the opening day roster this year, but it was a disaster. Had an 8.31 erra in 21 and two/3 innings for the Orioles to begin the year. And he O’s DFA Perez finally in late May. He just couldn’t get anybody out. He cleared waiverss, went to TripleA, 22 innings there with a 685 RA in Norfol wasn’t much better. Suffered some injuries in AAA that caused him to miss time. So, he does elect free agency. He’s another guy where, yeah, I could see it being totally possible the Orioles offer him a minor league deal to come back. He still has good stuff. So maybe another team would offer him a major league deal. It’s just not going to be the Orioles. I think it’s more likely with just how poorly it ended in Baltimore, even with the good years he gave the O’s, it’s probably better that the two sides split, he’ll find his way into a big league spring training. I’m I’m positive unless he has some sort of major injury. Perez will be in someone’s big league spring training next year. Whether that’s on a minor league deal or a major league deal kind of depends on what seems teams see at him at this point at age 29. But he still got the stuff to be a big league reliever. It was just the command was terrible. It was a disastrous early season for CNL Perez. And if again he signs on somewhere, I mean, I wish him well. It was especially those first two years, 2022 and 23. Perez was a gigantic part of this Orioles bullpen. Was really the top lefty in that pen for a long, long time for some good Orioles teams. We salute him for some some awesome outings, big outs, awesome innings that he gave the Orioles. Fun to watch him pitch, fun to watch him snag home runs in his hat out in the bullpen as well. He was a cool member of the Orioles for a couple of years. Just uh relievers are volatile. They run their course. Seemingly that kind of happened with Cena Perez, so if this is the end of his time in Baltimore, certainly thank him and wish him the best moving forward. But that’ll do it for today’s episode. Thank you so so much for tuning in. I will be back tomorrow again. Even though we’re in the offseason, we are still five days a week here on the pod. Tomorrow, we’re going to get a little more positive with the Orioles. I’m going to look at the three reasons why the Orioles will be able to turn things around and get back to the postseason in 2026. So, we got some positive vibes coming up tomorrow on the show. Until then, make sure to like, comment, and subscribe to the Lockdown Orioles YouTube page. Make sure you follow, subscribe to the show, leave a fivestar rating and a review wherever you listen. That helps us out as well. And if you have Orioles questions, just want to talk ball, whatever it may be, feedback for the show, you can always email me locked [email protected]. That’ll do it for today. Back tomorrow with the three reasons the O’s will turn it around in 2026. Until then, I’m Connor Nukem and this has been the Lockdown Orioles podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

The 2025 Baltimore Orioles season did not go well, and neither did Host Connor Newcomb’s bold predictions. Connor runs through where his predictions went wrong, discussing Adley Rutschman, the bullpen, and Tyler O’Neill.

Then, Connor runs through a few Orioles news and notes regarding Jose Barrero coming back and a few players electing free agency, inlcuding Scott Blewett, Cionel Perez, and Corbin Martin.

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