Biggest potential Houston Astros offseason CURVEBALLS?

Biggest potential Houston Astros offseason CURVEBALLS?

Welcome into Stone Cold Stros. I’m Brandon Strange with Charlie Polo and Josh Jordan. Go follow both of them on XPO and Josh Jordan 975. On today’s episode, Joe Spata got the endorsement of Dana Brown for 2026, but is that Jim Crane’s final answer? Uh, is there a scenario in which Frober returns for at least one more season? One former MLB exec thinks Houston is just a healthier season from their next postseason birth. We’ll bounce that around. And after bringing back Carlos Korea, is there a chance Houston brings another familiar face and his salsa home? Before all that, hit like on the video, subscribe to the channel, click that bell for notifications so you know when new content drops. We’re on all your favorite p podcast platforms as well where you can listen to the episodes. Just search Stone Cold Stros. Charlie Josh, welcome. And um I guess we start with the news of updates here. The Astros held their season postmortem presser on Tuesday with Dana Brown and Joe Espada. So, as it stands, uh, Joe seems to be the skipper for 2026. Now, last week there was a little bit of a rumbling that perhaps Houston could make a run at AJ Hinch, uh, as he’s waiting for his deal to be consummated in Detroit. It seems like a given that Hinch would reup with Detroit. Uh, do you guys see any scenario in which perhaps the team would make a move against a spotter or do you feel like his place is solid at least for one more season? Let’s invoke the alternate golden rule. If you have the most gold, you often get to make the rules. So Jim Crane wakes up one morning, you know what? I want this guy to be my manager or I no longer want Joe Espa to be my manager. uh failing that impulse uh spat is under contract and I understand right there was a shock and appalled factor rather than shock and a factor for many Astros fans missing the playoffs for the first time in 9 years they didn’t go 6894 they finished with the same record as the wildcard Detroit Tigers has Espatada stamped himself as a brilliant strategist and a manager who steals a bunch of games every year? No, I don’t think so. But they basically don’t exist. Managers don’t win that many games, no matter how brilliant their baseball acumen may be. Flip the coin. Those Yeah, but with all those changes of the lineups and all his bullpen moves, uh, if someone else was the manager, his final lost 15, 20 games. No, he didn’t. Not even freaking close to that. He probably goes on essentially non-secret probation. Last year of his contract, the Astros don’t make the playoffs for a second consecutive season. I would not bet on a spot of being in the dugout in 2027 with the Astros. Knock on wood. There is a 2027 season. The whole labor agreement expiring after next year and so forth. Uh another thing, uh managers and general managers often get paid if there is a work stoppage. So to fire a spata and bring on some more expensive manager when 2027 could be up in the air. So uh again golden rule crane can decide at any moment he wants but I expect a spat to be back and no one should have a massive problem with that unless of course Josh you do. No I’m I’m actually with you here Charlie I anticipate him being back but it is the it’s Jim Crane. We don’t know he he might just change his mind one day and he could do that. So, but I expect he’ll be back. I didn’t I know Spot caught a lot of criticism from Astros fans. I wasn’t I didn’t have a lot of issues with how he managed the club. I I thought he did an okay job. I’m a little more concerned about the the strategy for the hitting. I’m not necessarily saying fire the hitting coaches, but I think you got to do something to shake that up there. It’s just you can’t do nothing and expect it to get better in my opinion. I I whether that’s approach, whether that’s personnel making some trades that some guys that are get a little more contact than what you have. However they choose to do it, I I think they have to address that. Uh Dana Brown, I’m kind of I think I’ I’d rather keep a spata than Brown. And I don’t have a big issue with Dana. I just maybe they could do better there, but yeah, I expect a spotted to be back. So, we’ll see though. Jim Crane could come out this week and shock us all. Back on Tuesday when they had their basically farewell 2025 press conference much earlier than we’ve been accustomed to these last few years. The body wasn’t even cold yet. So Espatada could very reasonably deflect Dana Brown the same when asked about well any changes on the coaching staff in the offing as we’ve discussed here both because of the results while not all properly dumpable on the doorstep of Troy Snitker and Alex Cintron. If you’re going to dump them somewhere and if you’re going to make a change, whether for changes sake, whether for public perception or reality, it’s time for a different voice or voices in trying to enforce some changes in hitting philosophy that we heard all about a year ago. And then if anything, the Astros collectively grew less disciplined at the plate in 2025. And we can’t put all that, not smartly anyway, on well once they lost Esacho Paradus. They weren’t exactly the walks drawn club while Paradus uh was there. Uh on the AJ Hinch speculation, it’s fun. Nostalgia plays all the excitement of bringing Kareah back and well more nostalgia will come up later in this podcast. Uh but Hinch is going to stay with Detroit. I mean, maybe if they’ ultimately collapsed all the way out of the playoffs, the Tigers would have said, “Well, about that big money extension.” But AJ Hinch now, if he was to turn around and say, “Well, we didn’t sign it and I have the Astros making eyes of me.” That’s because he’d be creating his own little bidding war. I don’t think Jim Crane’s gonna pay $5 million per year for a manager if that’s what it would take to lure AJ Hinch back to Houston. It was a great run that had an ugly ending. Uh I don’t see uh Back to the Future on this one at all. Ditto Jeff Luno for saying for those saying, “Well, get Dana Brown out of here and bring Jeff Luno back.” Uh he’s having fun with his soccer teams and other stuff. And let’s not forget they did settle, but Luno sued Jim Crane for $22 million a few years ago. Yes, that is certainly valid uh and part of the conversation and I’ve made my piece about this. I think Joe should absolutely get the benefit of the doubt given what he had to deal with in with this season. I think there’s a bigger chance that if Joe is moved upon, I think it would be at the same time as Dana Brown. I think Brown has more questions to answer. Josh, you kind of touched on that. Uh, and more pertinent is obviously the question about the hitting coaches and I echo the same things that you guys have said. I agree that the performance of the players is not necessarily on the hitting coaches, but if I can make a crossport reference, Tiger Woods, one of the best to ever play the game of golf, he changed his hitting his swing coach out. And so if a guy who’s that prolific and that generational of a talent feels like he needs a different voice and that guy is not going to make him swing any better, he’s Tiger freaking Woods. He’s one of the best ever do it. Sometimes you need a different voice. And so uh I I think those are things to consider. Now speaking of guys that could be back in 2026, Rober Valdez following the end of the season said that he would quote love to stay in Houston or would love to stay in an Astros uniform. Um, I’ve seen some people speculate that because the second half of the season, the the poor run out for Frober, that perhaps Frober might take the qualifying offer from Houston, which is somewhere in the area of one year, $22 million. um that he would do that for the sake of putting a a good season on tape uh for the in the hopes of pursuing an even bigger bag because he may have cost himself a few million dollars with the or a few tens of millions of dollars depending on how the league judges him. Um but are you guys buying that that that perhaps Frober would settle for a qualifying offer for the chance to uh make even more money? I couldn’t sell that any harder. No way. No way is Framber taking the qualifier offer. He’ll be 32 years old when he makes his first start next season. Now, among Frombber’s major positives over his Astros tenure, he’s been damn durable. Well, that’s no guarantee, right? So, at age 32, you’re going to take one year, $22 million. The clear comp last season, last off seasonason to this offseason to Frra Valdez was Corbin Burns, the Brewer who went to the Orioles for one season, became a free agent. Now, he had a very good platform season with the Orioles, got six years, 210 million with the Diamondbacks, and durable, excellent Corbin Burns had his arm fall off midway 2022. I mean, if Rober’s price drops precipitously because of his six-w weekek funk coma and he only can get 5 years 125 million, I’m pretty sure that’s more than a hundred million more guaranteed than one year 22 million. And especially at his age, this is his time. Even if he’s not going to be a $200 million pitcher, the Max Freed or Corbin Burns of this off seasonason, he’ll still have a robust market and get a centillionaire’s contract. I cannot see any reasonable world in which Rober says, “Yeah, I’ll take the one-year 22 and roll the dice on my performance and my health and then go try to get my free agent big bag when I’m about to turn 33 years old.” Yep. 100%. I I don’t think it’s going to happen with Frober for all those reasons. Plus, I just think maybe it’s time to move on with From. I I think we could kind of see the writing on the wall with the Astros season when, you know, Frommber got crossed up or whatever. You know, we know that big moment. It’s been all downhill since then basically for the Astros. So, I think it’s just I don’t think From wants to be here anymore either. I think he’s feels a little disrespected. I think that they haven’t tried to negotiate a long-term deal with him. and you know, just sour grapes. You know, I think it eventually everything you everything comes to an end. It usually doesn’t end unless it ends badly. So, I just think it’s time and the Astros are going to be thin at pitching. So, don’t get me wrong, I completely understand that. But, I I think Frober’s time with the Astros is has come and passed. I think it’s a creative use of cope by Houston fans because the realities of what this rotation will look like next season. I some big question marks considering uh all the things that we’ve seen, we can dig into that a little bit more of that later, but I mean obviously the main headline that has permeated through uh the 2025 season was health. Now Jim Bowden ranked uh his top four teams that missed the playoffs uh for the athletic uh that he believes can turn things around and make the postseason in 2026. Now, his four teams from four to one are the Mets, Royals, Braves, and at number one, Houston. Now, two things I took from his little blurb was number one was the absence of the Rangers who parted with Bruce Bochi after the season was over. And number two, there wasn’t a mention, I guess, in contrast to seasons past in which there’s always the caveat about how soft the AL West division has been historically. Uh, season one or Seattle won the West for the first time since 2001. Um the Rangers obviously, you know, a lot of question marks with them. What would they look like next season? Um even the uh the the A’s looked very feisty in the second half of that season. So really hard to to see like what the competitive level or competition level of the West will be. Um but you know, I think the season certainly could have played out differently had Yordon not been hurt for a second time. Um, but Houston now is also looking at losing Frbridge just like we talked about. So, still big questions there. Big questions regarding the rookies in the outfield. So, without knowing what awaits Houston in the offseason, are you guys ready to say that the Astros get back to the dance with just a difference of health next season? Uh, I think it’s a little more than health, guys. I just I mean the offense bottom third over the course of the season. We we saw it and I know I know injuries were involved but we know they have a an issue with swinging at pitches out of the zone. They’re pretty much the worst at it in all of baseball. But it’s not just that either. We brought up Fromber. I’m worried about the pitching. It’s thin. And even the guys that you might kind of count on like Spencer Aragetti I think we kind of forget because of the injuries like when he did pitch his RA was 535. Not great. Even you know Christian Javier his already finished at 462. You hope that he continues to get better as he gets more healthy but it wasn’t dominant Christian Javier from a few years ago and then Lance McCullers if he is around when he did pitch this year RA was 651. I mean you can’t feel very confident about that group right there. So I think the pitching is something they’re really going to have to figure out. AJ Blue Ball I feel kind of good about him. He showed us some things at the end of the year. maybe he can take the next step. But you counting on McCullers and Ericetti and Javier, I don’t know. I I think they’re going to have to figure something out, whether through trade or or going and signing a front of the line starter. I fundamentally agree with you there, Josh. If they play a pat hand, oh, we can’t spend any more money or we need to roll it back for a year, they’re asking to miss the playoffs again. Now, it’s plausible that they get back with the fulcrum of that being Yordon being healthy for at least most of the year, which would be a nice kickart to getting an offense back to at least decent. But Altuve is turning 36. Kareah is 31. The other outfielders are all huge question marks. Yeah, Zack Cole bombed a few home runs. He also struck out 20 times in 47 at bats. Remember Joey Lopero had 50 or 60 great at bats. Uh Cam Smith, I presume he’s a lock to make the team, but he was of minor league quality the second half of the season. So that oh the Astros are teaming with good young outfielders now. No, not in terms of proven commodities. No one who holds a candle to say Roman Anthony. Roman candle joke. uh with the Red Sox who was roaring toward rookie of the year run up to Curts Curts with the A’s before he got hurt and missed the the last month uh of the season. Um, lot of questions, the biggest of which Josh nailed. It’s the starting pitching. And of course, cross your fingers, track down rabbits, feet, fourleaf clovers, whatever talisman you’re into. But Hunter Brown, new professional high in innings pitched in 2023. Top that in 2024, top that in 2025. Now, that doesn’t mean the pitching grim reaper is closing in on Hunter Brown, but man, need to hold your breath hard that he stays uh hold your breath hard that he stays healthy because after that, they have all question marks and meh. And I mentioned Zack Cole, 47 at bats that showed some flourish. AJ Blue 25 innings. Yeah, he looked great, but his minor league career 2025 in the minor leagues, he wasn’t a very good pitcher. So to just slot him and that’s the thing with From Yeah. he cratered for 6 weeks but you take his body of work 190 innings RA 3.66 not great. Yeah. Well there are 15 teams in the American League. Frer Valdez had the 13th best earned run average. That’s still way above average especially for the innings that he worked. Frober leaves and again I wouldn’t break the bank to keep him but it punches a humongous hole in that Astros rotation if they don’t go fill it Dylan CE Michael King Ranger Suarez Mel Kelly Z somebody who you’re thinking hey he’s a good major leager who we can count on fingers crossed for 150 innings plus uh if they’re going to go with all the question marks from within they’re courting disaster one of the you know on the offensive side of the ball one of the reasons we saw the decrease in production in off in in offense whether it was uh pitches seen walks was were the losses of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman over the offseason. Um one of the narratives that I’ve seen from a Houston perspective was you know well something we followed all season what what would Alex Bregman do uh in in Boston like what how would he respond to getting that big bag got that threeyear $120 million deal. Uh he had a really good season. Um you know he good season overall missed 43 games with that quad injury. Um but recorded his best average and slug since the 2019 season. Now I’ve seen a lot of Astros fans say that Jim Crane and Dana Brown should take a serious look at making a run at him to bring him back into Houston. Now I I don’t know where you you know you put him considering the fact that there’s already a log jam on the infield that they need to uh deal with right now. Um, do you think Bregman returning is even a remote possibility at this point? The great tennis player and color commentator John Mackenro’s most famous phrase probably is was, “You cannot be serious. Alex Bregman will be opting out of $40 million per season.” Even if he takes a cut from that because he wants longerterm security. I want this to be my last contract. So, what’s he going to seek? 6 years, 180. 5 years, 150. Alex Bregman will turn 32 years old opening day next week. And here are a couple of numbers for you. Post All-Star break 2025. Alex Bregman’s OPS 727. That’s 727. Christian Walker’s OPS post all-star break 799. Hard pass. Alex Bregman at huge money. Unless a rule is passed that teams play three third basemen at a time. It’s like something out of Gallagher’s act. But uh yeah, I mean we get so many so many infielder. I think when they brought back Koreah that that sealed the deal on any future of Alex Bregman coming back. And as we discussed a little earlier, they really need to focus on some pitching here. here. I know the offense needs to take a step forward, but I think whatever money they have, they got to attack some starting pitching. And speaking of pitching, I guess the apppropo exclamation point on the end of the season was the Luis Garcia news that he had both uh Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery on his arm. So, it’s expected use non- tender Garcia. So, his days as an Astro are likely over. uh his days as a big leader in general are up in the air given the severity and uh the number of surgeries that he’s had on that arm so far. Look, none of us are doctors, so we’ll have to diagnose based on vibes here. Uh is this a guy whose body just wasn’t going to hold up or do you think that exasper exasper easier for me to see? Do you think Houston exacerbated the problem by perhaps throwing caution to the winds out of desperation to bolster the rotation ahead of the playoffs? I have a hard time saying that even with their awful track record on the subject. I mean, it was nearly two and a half years. So, at some point, you need to get back on the horse. And if you get bucked off of there, you get bucked off of there. And it took one start in one inning for Luis Garcia to get thrown and he hit the daily double flexor tendon and Tommy John surgery. So honestly as it was probably back in the spring it was like to me Luis Garcia’s career is over unless or until he proves otherwise and he got back and barely and had that one shining moment right the six good innings in that one start and then it’s over the very next start. It’s sad because by all accounts, uh, delightful guy, had been a very solid pitcher, the five scoreless innings in relief in the 18 inning win in Seattle in 2022 to put away that series. Um, and he never made the big money, right? Luis Garcia made under $2 million in 2024. Well, not having pitched at all, he got the same salary in 2025. Of course, the Astros are are going to non-tender him. He’s not going to pitch for anybody. No chance in in 2026, right? That Christian Javier, if he never turns out to be any good again, he got 62 million, right? McCuller’s missed two entire years and then stunk in 12 starts, 13 starts this year. He’s made $51 million over the last three years and has another 17 million coming no matter what in 2026. Luis Garcia never got that lifetime financial security. So, uh, unfortunate, you know, the sport can be cruel, but ability subset of it, durability, availability, and Luis Garcia appears to have broke broken down with permanence. Yeah, I don’t really put this one on the Astros. He seemed to have issues from the jump with this recovery, from this surgery, and that’s why it’s taken him so long to get back. I’d be more likely to blame the Astros for Hayden Wesson’s Neski blowing out his arm this year, letting Jake Myers come back too soon with the calf injury, the way they mishandled Yordon’s hand basically the entire season. I’ll blame them for that. I’m not really going to put Luis Garcia on them, but it is disappointing because they really need starting pitching next year and he’s an affordable starting pitcher that just he won’t be available to them. Yeah, it it’s hard to say. Uh, and obviously we aren’t doctors, but it’s also hard to give this medical staff the benefit of the doubt because all the reasons that Josh listed. Uh, but I I think it’s unfortunate for all the reasons you said, Charlie, from a personal standpoint from Garcia for him, you know, having put so much film together uh in and so many big moments. a guy who’s, you know, got his, you know, it’s kind of trial by fire, got thrown into a lot of postseason, uh, you know, a lot of postseason action unexpectedly. Uh, and you you mentioned the the memory that I’ll always have of Garcia, which was was the five innings of relief in Seattle. Uh, just dude clutched up when they really needed him. Also had some other things that we won’t talk about. Uh, you know, but, uh, you know, it’s it’s just, you know, unfortunate for him. Um, and it does come at a time that is not ideal timing for Houston considering they do have so many questions at pitching. Uh, final thoughts before we jump out the door here. Well, there’s nothing imminent on on the baseball calendar, right? We’ll approach the winter meetings and the Astros will have a handful of guys to whom they’ll tender arbitration offers. uh presuming the management team is intact. Uh we do await the clock ticking on maybe some coaching staff turnover and then the course, right? Jim Crane has been absolutely invisible to the media pretty much all season and certainly since the the end of the season. I don’t think he’s going to come out and announce there’s no way we’re going to be a tax team for the third year in a row. But with the 50 million plus coming off the books, presuming they’re not going to keep Frober and then escaping finally the Abrau money, the portions of Monttero’s contract and and Presley’s contract. Uh I think they they don’t want to non-tender Jesus Sanchez. He’s a viable major leaguer. They can probably trade him for a minimal prospect. They’re not going to want to pay him six million, I don’t think, uh in arbitration. Duban, Mauricio Duban made 5 million. I don’t think they’re going to want to pay him and shouldn’t 6.5 7 million in arbitration. Uh so if they move off Dubon and Victor Keratini chooses to leave that’s another 6 million off the books. So the Astros can be in range of $60 million minus what they’ll pay in arbitration raises guys like Jeremy Pñena, Brian Abrau, Hunter Brown for the first time. So, it’s not like they’d have 60 million to go on a spending spree and still stay under the uh the first CBT threshold for 2026, but they will have some working room to be aggressive if they choose to go after a starting pitcher on the free agent market. Not the top end contract level, but if there’s three years 65 million on someone that they like. Uh, and of course the trade market as there are other teams that may want to do some payroll tweaking or or resetting that even though the Astros have a a lame farm system to dip into to offer and trade, maybe you can make the right match somewhere to fortify the starting rotation and a left-handed bat would still be welcomed. Yeah, that’s what I’ll be paying attention to. I I think this is a big off season for the Astros to really make some changes, get this thing going back in the right direction. And if Jim Crane doesn’t think Dana Brown is the guy to go do that, then don’t waste another year. If you don’t think it’s him, you know, replace him. But obviously, you have to have somebody that you like better than him. Don’t fire him or release him just for the sake of doing it. But if you don’t think he’s the dude, this is a big off season. Get somebody in there that you really have confidence in because, you know, you got Hunter Brown you feel good about, but you know, Karee, I know he’s only 31, but Aluve is getting older, too. Your window’s slowly closing here. So, if you’re going to make another real run at a title, I think this this off season is going to be a huge part of it. Quick follow on Brown. It’s an interesting needle to thread in evaluating him. Farm development, getting guys up through the minors. Three years isn’t really kind of like a recruiting cycle in college football where it’s four years, five years with guys who who red shirt. Uh Dana Brown is back in 2026. I think it’s imperative unless the Astros have a great year, win 97 games, and they’re back in the ALCS. Uh Bryce Matthews better make the real leap and not just because out of desperation they call him up and try him, right? That’s Dana Brown’s first first round pick with the Astros. He’ll be 24 years old in spring training. So, this isn’t some 20-year-old young phenom uh anymore. Uh, Walker Yannik, the catcher with Yiner Diaz’s hold on the job shouldn’t be ironclad going forward unless he’s going to improve, you know, walk more than once per week. Um, Yanuk will be 25 next season. By the end of next season, if he’s not knocking on the door to be ready for the major leagues, right? What will Dana Brown’s first three, four years in the minor league system have produced? Because on the trade front, the Kikuchi deal a year ago was very good. maybe helped get the Astros into the definitely helped the Astros get into the playoffs. Uh the return on the Tucker trade, I mean, we’ll see what becomes of Cam Smith, but Paradus was was just fine. He obviously didn’t get fleeced there. He didn’t have what turned out to be a strong deadline in 2025, but hey, most people were psyched for Koreah and kind of moved the uh oh, 3 years, 66 million more to to the side. Sanchez was a reasonable acquisition who just completely fell on his face and became a spare part, right? He was going to play third base and then they get Kareah. Uh so Aras to me he succeeds Dubon in the in the utility role. So if Dana Brown is back, which I would be fine with, uh he absolutely like Aspatada under the microscope perform or next in 2026. Yeah, Zack Cole leaprogging a bunch of guys that we know their names a little bit more uh familiar, but that doesn’t really speak well to what’s in the farm. Uh, you know, my my final thought is that uh intangibles are just that, you know, the talk about uh leadership. Alex Bregman, you know, his socks get bounced in the wild card. And so far, the Cubs fans are getting the Kyle Tucker postseason experience, just three hits so far, one walk, no RBI’s through four postseason games. So, it takes more than just experience and leadership. Those are good qualities. Uh, but you know, I’ve never heard a lot of talk about Yordon’s leadership, but I’d rather have a healthy Yordon than either of those two in the postseason. That’s just my personal opinion. Uh, one last reminder, if you’re watching on YouTube, be sure to click like on the video, and if you do listen on podcast on apps like Apple or Spotify, give us a fivestar rating while you’re here. For Charlie and Josh, I’m saying so long. I’m Brandon saying so long. Uh, thanks for listening. And as always, ghosts. [Music] [Music]

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