Penguins Send Clear Message With Their Opening Night Roster

Penguins Send Clear Message With Their Opening Night Roster

[Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] Hello everybody and welcome to the Tip of the Iceberg podcast, your home for Pittsburgh Penguins news and analysis. I’m your host Nick Bellski joined this week by the returning Nick Horwad as we get set for the Pittsburgh Penguins 202526 season. We got a heck of a lot to get into today as we transition from preseason hockey and I can’t believe I’m saying this to the beginning of the regular season from the time of this recording just under 48 hours away from puck drop between the Penguins and Mike Sullivan’s New York Rangers. So, Horwat, welcome back onto the show and welcome back to to hockey season because it is here. It is October and opening day, like I said, under two days away. It’s exciting to see it all back. The NHL schedule makers couldn’t have designed it better themselves for uh Penguins up against Mike Sullivan right away. Ripped the band-aid off of the whole playing against your old team situation with uh the Penguins and Rangers. It’s not in Pittsburgh, so there’s not the tribute video, but hey. Um it’s still we’ll get that two days later or two days later and that is just right around the corner. So it’s um that’s a good little start to the season. Get those warm mushy feelings out of the way because if you ask anyone within the Penguins organization or Sydney Crosby from Amazon, he still has a drive to win and he still wants to do that. So we’ll see how much winning he does. It won’t be much. But hey, you know, like he said, if the Penguins still think he’s a valuable piece to that, right? You know that com that that quote there that was uh peak Sydney Crosby being as humble as he can considering he’s still one of the 10 best players in all of hockey and even if he wasn’t I think the Penguins would still find him a pretty valuable piece to the organization. That was an interesting episode by the way. I, you know, you don’t get much of a behind-the-scenes look at Sydney Crosby often, but the one thing we got out of that that I I will probably take with me, the only thing that I’ll take with me from that episode of the Amazon series is the man is more of a psychopath than we thought. The pictures of the captains in his home gym and Nathan McKinnon in his home gym. That’s uh, you know, I never would have imagined that, but it makes too much sense that that’s what he does. I’m not shocked at it. I also, this might be I might be pulling something out of thin air. I vaguely remember hearing about that before in a different video thing that he had done. Mhm. Um because when that when the Amazon episode started and I saw the doc and his gym and I I immediately thought, I’ve seen this all before. This is all a familiar thing that he’s done before with some company or with some video crew, whatever it may have been. Yeah. Uh, so it looked familiar and I think he had talked about the the pictures thing before. I also may have pulled that out of thin air, but I’ve definitely seen that dock in that workout room before. So, some of it was new, some of it wasn’t. Yeah, the dock is infamous or famous or whatever you want to call it. But, uh, the dock has been seen. I’m not sure. I’ve never seen the pictures, but now we have. And if you don’t know what we’re talking about, because not everybody is is freaks like us and immediately watch everything that comes out the first day, uh there’s a new Amazon series, season 2 of Face Off inside the NHL. And episode three of season 2 is revolving around the Kings on Kopitar and of course Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sydney Crosby with a little bit of Ovetchkin, a little bit of Quinton Biffield. I don’t know. Again, they probably didn’t get enough from Crosby to be able to to fill half an episode because Yeah. No, he’s not going to give you much. I don’t think he gave them much to work with. And for what it’s worth, it’s the only episode I’ve watched so far, so I still have to dig into the rest of it to really see if that’s how the rest of the series uh is paced because it was awkward pacing. If that’s also all the time they gave to Ovetchkin’s uh record-breaking goal. Hilarious because the NHL took all of that spotlight then. Yeah, 100%. But let’s uh let’s turn the page and talk a little bit about this upcoming season and less about a documentary that came out. I’m I’m excited to watch the rest of it because season 1 was entertaining. But let’s talk a little bit about what’s happened over the weekend. Final rosters for NHL teams are due by 5:00 p.m. on Monday afternoon. So, if you’re listening to this, they’re due today by 5:00 p.m. But the Penguins and Kyle Dubis, well, they’re the good student. They handed in their homework a couple days in advance. This from their ex account a few days ago. Quote, “The following players have been assigned to AHL Wilsar Scranton training camp. Tristan Bros, Avery Hayes, Sergey Murash, and Owen Pickering. Also, Alexander Alexv, Ryan Graves, Raphael Harvey Pernard, Boo Iama, and Sam Puland will be placed on waiverss at 2 p.m. and will be assigned to Wils Bear pending clearance. And then the last little little note on this tweet was forward Robbie Fabry has been released from his PTO. And I I I reposted this and said there’s a lot to take in on this one. They just said, “You know what? We’re not going to wait. We’re going to make all the roster moves right now.” And of course, this was a couple days ago. As we move forward, they all cleared waiverss and they were all sent down to the American Hockey League. But what that does is it sets up the Penguins 23man roster. There are some injuries that clearly affected the 23 men that are going to be walking in to Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. But of of the 23, excuse me, there are three rookies, Billy Kovenan, Harrison Brunick, and Ben Kindle. Very interesting that those three were able to make it. I think Kvenan, we can touch on him really quickly. From the moment training camp started, it felt like it was a it was destined that Billy Kovvenan has a spot on this roster. It’s in Penn. There’s no doubt about it. The only question was where is he going to be playing on opening night? Yeah, it seemed pretty clear, heck, at the end of last season almost, too. Yeah, he was just on a good roll, on a good run, and when you get that kind of momentum uh to take into the off season, of course, you have the risk of losing that sort of pace. Uh but he didn’t lose a step. It appeared going into camp really well and then going through the preeason and hitting all the right notes. He just um wouldn’t lose his spot. He didn’t lose grip. That’s sort of what the Penguins need from their youngsters, especially when there’s all that time off. And like like you said, Ky Vanin was able to maintain that pace, maintain that positioning and not lose the spot that going into the offseason, going into this season could have been up in the air, but he proved why it’s his and it was his to lose and he didn’t. And that’s a very good thing for everyone involved. Yeah, I’m really excited to see what Billy Kipin is able to do this year. I don’t think that he’s somebody who has to fight to keep his roster spot any more than anybody else. Right. Obviously, we’ve seen a couple of veterans that were on that list that got sent down. We saw Danton Heinen have to go through waiverss and get sent down. So, nobody’s, you know, with the exception of the obvious few. Nobody is really set in stone at the NHL level, but it feels like Billy Kovven’s got a lot of rope right now. Like, he’s got a long leash going into this season. I’m excited to see what he does with it. And uh obviously we’ll we’ll mention them a little bit or at least I’ll mention them a little bit as we uh finish off this show with the Pens predictions. But the other two names have made headlines. Harrison Brunick, 18 years old, 2024 second round pick and Ben Kindle also 18 years old 2025 first round pick. Both making the team out of camp for the very first time in their careers obviously when you’re that young. And let me ask you this hor before we talk about each of them individually. Do you remember who the last three players are to get this nine-game try out that everybody’s talking about with both Brunick and Kindle? Well, Rucker McGory technically. I mean, he could have gone to the AHL. That’s what I mean. The nine games the nineame try out is right in it in what’s the best way to say this. The way I’m saying uh trying to look at the last three is the players that had to get that nine games or go to their junior team or go to junior team. I mean, they can stay beyond that, but then you just automatically start to burn that first year of the ELC, right? Okay. Um, oh goodness, is one of them Daniel Sprung? One of the last one is Daniel Sprung. 2015, he played 18 games before he was sent back down to the juniors, which means the Penguins did end up burning his first year of an ELC where he played the majority of the year in the CHL. Yeah. Uh, and that was a decade ago. That was a decade ago. That’s the last time something like this has happened. So, the fact that it’s happened with two different players, it makes it even more crazy. Yeah. Oh, goodness grace. Is Is one of them Sydney Crosby, too? It is not Sydney Crosby. Okay. Cuz that that would that would be nuts if we’re going two decades and one of these three is that. Yeah, you got the most recent one. There’s two more between when Sydney Crosby came into the league and and Daniel Sprung, who was somebody that I I feel like I have to mention was your guy. Oh, yeah. Absolutely. Also, thinking that that was a decade ago and I think he’s pretty much burnt through his whole career already is also nuts. His hairline has stayed exactly where it was though since he was 18. You did not have to do that to him. Um, give me the last two because I don’t want to sit here and try and think of names. They’re just not going to come to me. Fair enough. Oolie Mada in 2013. He ended up staying the whole season playing 78 games and he himself has had a very good career. Yeah. Over the last decade and plus. And then Jordan Stall back in 2006 at 18 years old. He stayed all season long and scored 29 goals as a rookie. And of course, we’ll talk about people who have forged great career paths since this has happened. Jordan Stall has probably put himself in the hall of very good. I would have to imagine. Yes. Yeah. And you know what? Very durable and still very good at producing at this age. Two decades and almost. And there’s still three, four names. Hilarious. This rarely happens for the Penguins and seeing two is quite entertaining and um another note of just how Kyle Dooms is building this team and starting to really gear toward that future. Let’s talk about the most surprising one because Harrison Brunick there was this conversation last year of could he earn the nineame sample and it ultimately didn’t happen and he went back to Cam Loops but the conversation was there around him so let’s put him on the back burner for the moment. Ben Kindle. I did not see him coming in and performing as well as he has through training camp, but I certainly didn’t expect him to get this opportunity. Now, we have to mention there is a couple players that are injured, which probably open the door for him to get this chance. Brian Ross starts the season injured. Rucker McGre starts the season injured. Kevin Hayes, you’d have to imagine would be on the 23man roster, starts the season injured. So, it opens up the door for Ben Kindle, but he also had to push through it. He had to walk through the door and he did just that with his performance through training camp and through the preseason games. Yeah, injuries are not. You have to take advantage of the opportunities that you’re being given. Um, and it’s kind of fascinating seeing that the Penguins had that early first round pick and everyone was throwing out all these names that they think Kyle Duba should go after that it would be good for the team, good for the future, and he went off the board, went with Ben Kindle. Mhm. Not only did Kyle Dubis go off the board with this kid, um, now he’s making the team out of camp right away. So, the Penguins think very highly of this of this player over some of the options that they could have had that would have not made more sense to make the opening night roster, but at the time he would have predicted as a higher opportunity or a higher chance to do so. And here he here Ben Kindle is proving himself again. Yes, injuries. So what? Injuries happen all the time. Maybe if he plays well in these nine games and in game nine another one happens. Well, now he’s staying through. Again, that’s tough and you start to really look at you really start have to start considering the ins and outs of earning a contract. But he’s earned his right and he’s earned his opportunity to really cement himself and start to really pave a path for himself in the NHL. I’m fascinated to see what he can do with it. It’s going to be quite entertaining and he could all of a sudden really make leaps in the Penguins prospect pool and jumping those rankings. I mean, he’s already near the top of those rankings. I I think jumping more. Yeah, you can argue that he’s number one, but I think you’re in an argument between him, probably Harrison Brunick, and Rucker McGordy, but again, right now you’re probably splitting hairs because he is I mean, not only does he have that offensive upside, but the kid is is great in the defensive zone already. and at the age of 18. So, the fact that he’s going to start the season likely as the Penguins third line center, Horwat, how many years since now assistant coach Nick Bonino left the organization have we been saying the Penguins still don’t know who their third line center is. Penguins need to find a third line center. And now this kid who was drafted literally less than four months ago is gonna walk into Madison Square Garden on opening night and center a line of himself, Tommy Novak, and Phil Thomasino like that. I look at that third line, I’m like, “All right, we could we could do some good things with that third line.” So, I’m very excited that he’s able to to keep this opportunity. And honestly, the the big thing that this shows to me is that the Penguins and all the reports coming out from outlets such as The Athletic and Josh Yoey where they said we are going to go young. Every time I heard that this summer, I was like, “Okay, but like are you like you still have guys like Danton Heinen who you just acquired and you think you’d like to get his value up so he you could flip him.” I mean, that’s what they did all last season. That’s that’s what you kind of expected like okay yeah you hired the the prospect head coach you know per se Dan Muse is probably more than that not probably definitely more than that but that’s kind of the the thought process around Dan Muse but you still say okay how young are they really going to go well two 18year-olds including a guy who when those reports started coming out wasn’t even part of the organization so I I think for a season that a lot of people expected to go into it with low low expectations. This is just something that brings a lot of excitement as they kick things off. Yeah, I’m super excited about it. I am excited to finally see the Penguins going toward going toward the youth uh direction. Yeah, they’ve kind of been inching toward the last couple seasons. We saw Rucker McGory make the team out of camp for a couple games last year or him and Quinnan at the end of last season. um or Blonquist getting more looks at the NHL level. Like they started inching toward it in the last few seasons, but this year it seems they’re going to try their best to go full force toward again you there’s Ben Kindle, Harrison Brunick, McGory’s hurt. I mean when he gets healthy I bet he finds a roster spot. Yeah. Somewhere. I mean we’ve also already seen them put Ryan Graves and Dan Heiden on waiverss. They’re not afraid to send these NHL level players. air quotes everywhere to the AHL. Yeah. So, if and I think there there’s a quote somewhere from a few months ago of someone saying or even a few weeks ago, if even if they’re younger, if they are meant for the team, they will make the team essentially in so many words. And that’s exactly what’s happening. Regardless of their age or where they are, they’re going to make the NHL. Yeah. You know, Kyle, that was kind of I wouldn’t say verbatim, that is, you know, paraphrasing, but that’s what Kyle Duba said in his introductory press conference, like veterans, rookies, we’re taking the players that perform the best over the next three weeks and they’re going to make the opening night roster. And he was true to his word, and that’s something that if you’re a Penguins fan, you know, you haven’t seen. But also, I think part of that is you haven’t seen this many prospects this close to being NHL ready. And it’s exciting. Speaking of NHL ready, Harrison Brunick at 18 years old is insanely talented. And when I talk about whether or not these players can make it past that nine games, activate their first year of their ELC and stick in Pittsburgh for longer term, Harrison Brunick is set up to do just that. He has poised in both zones. He can move the puck well as as he showed in the final preseason game where he scored an absolutely ridiculous goal against the Buffalo Sabres. I am extremely impressed with Harrison Brunick. And honestly, of the two of them, he is the more likely to be able to pull an Oolie Mada, if you will, to stay play damn near the entire season and be good enough to say, “Hey, it’s not a liability. In fact, it’s great that he’s here and he’s elevating a Penguins defense that would be sorely missing him in that spot if he had not made the strides that he did throughout this off season. Yeah. Was it Josh Yoi that tweeted he might be the best defenseman on the team right now? And he just might be because every time he’s on the ice, he seems to be maybe not proving that statement exactly, but gearing himself into the right direction. Yeah. I mean, the ch the the the talent level of the Penguins defense right now isn’t phenomenal, but I mean, if he’s out playing names like Crystal Tang and Eric Carlson and Ryan Graves, if you really wanted to, like Matt Dumbo, if you really wanted to, who I just remembered was on this team, then you know what? Good for him. And he’s clearly deserving of this of this spot and this chance. And yeah, I I firmly believe he will make it past the nine games just because of the hype that he’s getting and that he’s proving every second of it. And here’s the thing, too, and I don’t want to take anything away from what Ben Kindle has accomplished this preseason. It is startling to see a player play up to the level that he has already and be able to make this roster. But there is the asterisk of he made the roster with Brian Rust and Rucker McGory and Kevin Hayes hurt. Meanwhile, Harrison Brunick had to fight through a lot of layers of veterans to be able to get himself this opportunity. You mentioned Matt Dumba, you mentioned Eric Carlson, you mentioned Chris Lang. It’s a very stacked right side, whether that’s players that are playing great or just veterans that demand opportunity. Harrison Brunick has put his name in the mix there, beating out probably a guy like Matt Dumbo to play on that right side on the third pairing, beating an a guy that’s played a lot of NHL hockey and Connor Clifton as well. So, you have to really just look at Brunick and understand that this kid is not here just for a cup of coffee. I don’t think he is. Now, I could ask you this question, but I think we’ve already answered it. Do you think either of these players could last the full 82, barring injury, of course, but do you think outside of Brunick, I’ve made my my thoughts clear on him, do you think one of Brunick and or both Brunick and Kindle could actually stick it out this entire season? I think there’s a good chance that at least Brunick could. Like I said, I just think he continues to prove that he can take these NHL lumps day in and day out. And one thing that really gives him the benefit, um, you mentioned, yeah, he’s playing on the right side and he has to play through veterans on the right side. Dan Muse also said, I don’t care what handedness they are on the blue line. If they can play in the NHL, they’re going to play and I’m going to stick them on the left side. He’ll play them wherever they’re comfortable. Yeah. If that involves going to the other side of the ice, then they’re then they’re going to do it. And I think I believe it’s Matt Dumba that’s playing opposite side to play with Brunick, then heck yes. Then heck yes. Because again, it’s just it’s that cycle of wherever you’re playing comfortably and succeeding. And it’s we’re not tying things down to one side or the other. It’s hard lines like that like Mike Sullivan would do very often. Those hard lines are gone. Sure, it’s a bit of an experimental phase for the Penguins, especially in this era of they’re not going to win a ton of games, but we’re going to see what we have out of these young guys on a comfortable side of the ice on maybe an uncomfortable side of the ice to build it and to improve and get better for what should be a very successful future. I’m excited to see Brunick play 82. That’s just me. Yeah. Yeah, I think I’m with you on that one. I I think Brunick sticks around. Kindle again, you can squint. Tougher, but you can squint and see how they could maybe make it work. You know, they have eight defenseman on the roster to start the season. So, if one of those forwards comes back, maybe Shay or Clifton goes down. Maybe Nolachari. I don’t know. They they’ve already sent Ryan Graves down. I feel like that’s, you know, Ryan Graves and Danton Hein, let’s not forget. So, I feel like, you know, adding a Chari to that list would be kind of kind of exaggerating what we expect here, but I don’t know. It’s uh it’s going to be interesting and I’m excited to see what Kindle has to offer. And even if he does go back, but get that nineame sample size, I think it’s great experience for him. I think it’s great to kind of showcase a little bit of what the future might hold. And it’s the same thing as Sergey Mirishov going down. He is going to be really good for this organization. But you just have to be a little bit patient. It’d be nice if we could call all of our big guns up, all of our young guys up, and all of a sudden it all clicks at once. But that’s just not how development works. It’s different for every single player. But the next step in development for Kindle and Brunick is playing some NHL hockey, making those debuts and getting those rookie laps. Out of all places, the world’s most famous arena. And one other thing I just want to respond to really quickly uh before we move on. You said they’re not going to win a lot of games. I don’t know. I don’t know. We have we have our prediction segment at the end, so stay tuned for that. Uh that there’s a little little uh sneak peek as to what it might be on my side of things. Let’s talk a little bit about that season preview for the Pittsburgh Penguins because well, it is preview and prediction season. And the biggest thing I want to ask you, Horwat, is what is the biggest question for the Pens going into the season? There are plenty to choose from. The left side of the defense is interesting. Caleb Jones playing alongside Chris Latang, that is a question mark and that could be in the running for biggest question. No doubt about it. Will they won’t they with bigname trades? Ricard Raquel, Brian Rust, I think that’s an option as well. Dan Muse, you have a new head coach. You have a new coaching staff. Of course, that’s a big question. So, Horwat, of everything surrounding the Penguins heading into this season, what to you is the biggest question mark they have going into the year? I’m going to go with those will they, won’t they, on the trades? Yeah, it’s it that’s part one of the question because part two can kind of be how committed to the rebuild are they in terms of how much are they digging out? How much of of the dead weight or how much of the big names are they going to uh send away? And I think that boils down to which of the big names are getting moved. Not when or if, but are they? Because really, are they? We thought they were all going to happen this off seasonason. And yet here we go in 48 hours away from puck drop on a new season and Carlson, Rust, and Raquel are all still here. Yeah. So already the pacing of trades has been not what we expected, but there’s still time for it. let these guys prove that or show what they can do. Be a bit more of a showcase for other teams and let them come calling come deadline time, especially if the Penguins aren’t winning. Now, I don’t remember how long ago this was, but I vaguely remember a Kyle Dubis press conference where he, in not so many words, again paraphrasing, said, “You can’t do a tear it to the studs rebuild with the Penguins because the players here are just too good.” Well, maybe when he was talking about that, he included guys like Raquel in his mind, guys like Rust in his mind because we all assumed, okay, when he says that he means Crosby, he means Mal, and he means Latang because they’re not going to trade those three guys. We just know that at this point, it’s unlikely all three, any of those three get traded. But maybe he was including guys like Rustin Raquel. Maybe he was including now a guy like Eric Carlson. can’t tear it to the studs because the players here are just too good to garner trading them. And I think the question would become, can he backfill the organization with prospects fast enough to make it so that you don’t have to trade away all of those pieces? Again, the answer remains to be seen and I would be surprised if all three of those names that you mentioned are still on this roster come the deadline this year. But it is a huge question mark because if other things fall a certain way, you could argue, hey, you should keep those guys on because if certain things fall away, you might be able to sniff a playoff spot. And again, I’m I’m previewing what’s to come in our Penguins predictions. But, you know, if everything goes right and you hold on to these guys, this team is to me not a bottoming out team. So, it’s a huge question mark. I I couldn’t agree with you more, but it’s not the biggest question mark. The biggest question mark to me without a shadow of a doubt is goalending. Isn’t it always though for the Penguins? Yeah, that’s why I avoided it. I because I thought of that too. But I mean, come on. We’re going to have the conversation all year anyway. We are. But I just to me I can’t get away from it because Tristan Jarry has not looked good. He has not. I mean, I said the best case scenario. I think this was two weeks ago on this podcast. I said the best case scenario for the Penguins as I move my cat out of the way. He’s getting he’s getting in my face as I move him out of the way. The biggest question he he blocks the camera more than Tristan Jarry can block a shot. But you know, the best case scenario would have been Tristan Jarry stepping up in in train in training camp and stealing this job. He hasn’t done that and yet he’s still going to get it. Mhm. You know, partially because Yol Blanfist got injured, partially because I think that’s what was destined to happen. but he has not looked good and there are major questions about him and then even Artur Sheils who I really like has questions about himself at the NHL level. So, you know, while everybody wants to to clamor for Sergey Mirishov, it’s not his time yet and the people that we’re left with, there’s just a lot of questions as to what level they’re going to play at. Yeah. Yeah. I I think regardless of injuries or output in the preseason and training camp, I would have been stunned had the Penguins gone into the year with Blownquist and Rers. Stunned. Well, if it was those two. Yeah. If it was those two in general, I would have asked who got hurt or what happened exactly. Um, that being said, I I keep saying one of the three of Bliss Murv and Sheil, one of them has to hit. I do think one of them will. Heck, two of them might. Heck, all three of them might. And just one of them has to be on another team. And that’s perfectly okay. Jarry, I think the confidence from the fan base, from me and from you probably, is just down and out. It’s not game over for Tristan Jarry. Like you said, best case scenario would be he takes everything back. He takes the crease back. He finds what made him a two-time all-star half a decade ago. But he hasn’t. And now here we are going into another year. you mentioned what’s you know or at least I said the bigname trades what’s going on there’s among that conversation and he has been and that’s not going to change anytime soon so yeah I absolutely agree with you in that goalending will once again be the biggest question I just didn’t want to I just didn’t want to bring it up because we bring it up every year and we’re going to bring it up all year like I have at least 75 hours of talking about Penguins goending ahead of me over the next six months I didn’t want to start it now pretty much and and it’s fine that we do. It’s because again that is the correct answer overall. It is where this team is going to probably live and die honestly. Yeah. And we’ll see where it goes. They have Mishop who everyone is excited for and I think moving him to the AHL to start is the right move. I agree. Bar none. Bar none. That’s the right move. Get him some se get him some more seasoning. Don’t throw them to the wolves like they did with Blownquist, who by the way still has time to prove himself as well. So the Penguins, there’s a lot there. I don’t think any of it’s bad, though. Is Tristan Jarry bad? Maybe, but I don’t think this is a bad situation that the Penguins are in goalending wise. Again, they’re not supposed to win this year, so if they’re not getting saves, it’s not the end of the world. Now, you mentioned that it’s not over for Tristan Jarry, and it’s not. You’re correct. But it kind of feels like it might be his last chance in Pittsburgh. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. With the way this season I I don’t mean overall like this season feels like hey it’s put up or shut up because even though the trade market might not be there for him. You look at the way the salary cap is moving. You look at the moves that Kyle Dubis is making. I mean he just dumped Ryan Graves that huge contract into the AHL simply because why? because they have the salary cap space to not worry about wasting three million in dead cap on Ryan Graves’ contract. And I look at Tristan Jar’s buyout and I just say, man, after this year, that’s very palatable if you’re Kyle Dubis. And I hate to say that because I hate to see anybody get bought out because that just means that there was faith placed in them and they just weren’t able to capitalize on it. But if there’s faith based in them or placed in them, that means there was talent there. And I still believe there’s talent there for Tristan Jarry. You just you haven’t been able to find it and it’s unfortunate. But I’ll read you off these numbers and you let me know if it feels more realistic for a Jarry buyout after this season. Next year it would be a $4.7 million cap hit. You’d save $600,000. The following year would be a $4.2 million cap hit. You’d save $1.1 million. and then you would only have to account for his money two more years at $458,000 a piece. That’s very palatable if you’re the Penguins looking to restart at the goalending position. Oh yeah. Yes. Absolutely it is because who knows where the Penguins want to be next year or the year after. You really don’t know. It’s tough. You think maybe on that second year is whenever things start to turn around again. they start to really start to ramp up with going after buying at the deadline, per se, or going out and getting a big free agent name. You got a million off from your from a goalender you’re not using and then suddenly it’s 400,000 the next season. Oh yeah, you take that every day, especially with the cap going up exponentially in that year specifically. Mhm. That’s crazy. Uh that might just be what they do. Oh my goodness. I didn’t think of that. that just maybe not exactly, but that’s it’s very very very likely when you see that sort of gap between the cap going up and the cap hit from Jarry. Not to mention, and I have to double check this because I didn’t think about this before, but doesn’t the Jack Johnson buyout number fall off after this year? Oh, part of me thought it was already up, but you might be right. After this year, it’s also gone. Yeah. Let me check uh our friends over at Puckedia real quick because they are now the the go-to. Yeah. Yeah. You have 917,000 still of Jack Johnson that falls off after this year. So again, the Penguins historically not a franchise that likes buyouts. Kyle Dubis as a general manager historically not someone who likes buyouts. But in this instance, it’s hard to not look at it as a possible solution. And I hate to say it and I’m very much so hoping that it doesn’t come to that, but you have to start looking that at that as a reality in the next calendar year for the Penguins. Especially if all goes well with Sergey Murishov next year or this year, it’s going to be hard to deny him that starting spot next year. Oh yeah. Oh yes. Like I said, one of those three has to hit and they’re going to hit soon if they do. Yeah. Now, let’s finish off this episode with a couple more quick hitter predictions. There’s one in here that’s really fun that we haven’t really done before because we really haven’t had the amount of players that fall into the category that will this year. So, I’m excited to get to that. But, I want to start with bold predictions. Sometimes we do three or four. This year, I’m only asking for one bold prediction from you, Nick Horwatt. I might not, it might not be that bold considering the conversation we just had, but uh I bet Eric Carlson stays through the trade deadline. I bet we have this whole song and dance again next summer. The song and dance of this summer was nothing. But you get what I’m saying. The the the the discussing of it at the beginning of the of the off season of well what teams would fit? What teams would consider taking him on another whole year off the deal? You wait for that one new extra payday to go by and suddenly it’s a easy move. But I think I don’t know why something about it seems he’s sticking through another season. Uh again, we know Eric Carlson trades would have to take time. Yeah, there hasn’t been whispers yet. The only thing he heard from was the media in the summertime. Not from anybody of actual credibility. Yep. Not that as far as NHL sources are concerned. I should say there are media members that have credibility. Oh, absolutely. Not that the NHL trade deadline is right around the corner or anything. No. But and things can change in the blink of an eye, but it seems unlikely that a Carlson trade would happen in the blink of an eye. There’s there’s going to be some rumors. There’s going to be some reports, some rumblings, if you will. Mhm. None of that has started yet. So, I I just don’t expect it to happen. Okay, fair enough. I mean, hey, listen, at this point, there was serious question about whether or not the Penguins would have any Swedes on their roster when they headed over when they went over to Sweden as I try to get some actual grammar in into this podcast. But, uh, now, as of right now, they have three, you know, Ricardell, Eric Carlson, and don’t forget Young Philip Hollander also on the roster now. So we have three. We have three. You don’t have to just lean on Philip Forsber to to sell that in Sweden. But uh I like that bold prediction. And honestly, he looked good in preseason, man. Oh boy. You know, there’s Listen, I’m I’m more hopeful than you maybe. But you never know. There’s talent there. There’s talent there. And he can just turn it on as we s as we saw at Four Nations. He can just turn it on in the blink of an eye. Mhm. So maybe he turns it on and who knows, maybe he sustains it a little bit more this year because Parker Wtherspoon is just, you know, the magic the magic partner that he’s been looking for in Pittsburgh. But as far as bold predictions go, I like yours. Mine might be just a little bit bolder because I don’t think as many people are going to believe in it. Genny Malin will score over 70 points this season. He has not done that since the first year of his current deal. He had 83 points in 82 games three seasons ago. Last year was a little rough. 67 points under 20 goals for the first time in quite some time. Let’s not forget he wasn’t healthy. He had a revolving door of wingers. And now you look at it and while yes, they might be testing some certain guys out. I like him and Manatha together. I think that you could put those two as a pairing all season and I think it will very much so help Malin. And something about there being a lot of young guys makes me think it’s going to bring the best out of Guinea Malin. It it just does because he has this childlike exuberance to him all the time anyway. Surrounding him with actual children I feel like is just going to make him even happier. And a happy Malcin is a dangerous Malcolin when it comes to on the ice and what he’s able to perform with. So, I think if he stays healthy, and that’s my only caveat here, I think he proves a lot of people wrong who think, hey, this is just going to be one for the gipper for Evetty Malin. I think he’s going to go out there and he’s going to be a good player this year. And I think he’s going to put up over 70. Just to remind everybody once again, stop doubting Malin. Hey, you you know what a you know what a hot start for Getty Malin does? It’s gonna it’s going to light the trade rumors on fire. Yeah. Well, talk about more trade rumors now or just whatever. Yeah, talk about more trade rumors for the Penguins this year. I mean, not that that one’s gonna happen, but man, a hot start from Getty Malin and the Florida Panthers are looking for help. But here’s the thing. If he gets off to a hot start, the Penguins might not be in a position to want to trade people. Yeah. No, like that type of hot start where it would ignite trade rumors on fire. There’s no way the Penguins aren’t winning hockey games while he’s doing that. You would assume. Yeah. Remember Justin Jar is a net boy. Bumpa. All right. I did it. All right. Well, with that, let’s move off of bold predictions. If getting Malin over 70 points is mine, Eric Carlson remains on this roster is yours. This is the one I was excited to get into. Who’s going to be the rookie scoring leader? Because now there could legitimately be multiple rookies that play over 60 games this year. Mhm. Last year, the year before that, and really the last half decade, it’s been, well, what rookie is going to play more than five games. That’s the answer. But this year, you have options. You have Harrison Brunick, who we talked about. You have Ben Kindle, who’s starting the season and who knows, could make his way up. But you have guys that got sent down this week that could come up and play significant minutes at the NHL level. Tristan Bros, Avery Hayes, there’s a lot of options here. Rucker McGory when he comes back. Who’s to say he isn’t just going to be in an NHL spot for good now? So, rookie scoring leader, do you have a favorite? I’m go in. Yes. I I didn’t want to I didn’t want to say it was obvious and then you be like, well, I I don’t think it’s quite obvious. So, I wanted to make sure it was obvious to you, too. It’s not obvious. I will give you that. Like, I did think about it. There are definitely the options, especially when you consider Rucker McGory trying to come back um much better than what he was last year. Not that he was bad last year, but trying to come back with a full head of steam. Um or anyone that could come up from the AHL later this season. Um or what Ben Kindle can do. Like there are options. Like this wasn’t a this isn’t an open and close case. Um but I just do think it’s going to be the most likely option. I agree. I don’t think it’s particularly close for a couple reasons. One, he’s going to start in the top six. Yep. He’s going to have a spot on a power play, if not the top power play for the Penguins at at times. And I think he’s going to have a head start on a lot of these other guys. Yeah, you look at opening night, there’s three rookies, but we’re still having the conversation of are those rookies going to be here after game nine? Whereas we know Billy Koan, if he’s healthy, he’s probably playing 82 games this year. Whereas, who knows when Bros comes up. Who knows when McGroy gets back onto the ice. And I think we saw last year that while Recker McGre is somebody who has a very bright future, Billy Kovenan seems more prepped to fill the back of the net and to fill the score sheet. Shoot, he had what, seven points in eight games last year. All seven being assists if I remember correctly. But the guy is a playmaker. He does have a lethal shot, so he’s going to start capitalizing and scoring goals. I think there’s more of a conversation to be had about the race for second place because I think it could be Brunick. I think it could be McGroy. And then I think if they come up early enough, Bros and Avery Hayes could put their names into that basket. And if Ben Kindle sticks around, obviously he’ll be there as well. I just at the moment have a hard time believing that he’s going to survive the return of McGory and Brian Rust. Yeah, he might not. And that’s perfectly okay. Um, but it could be a race for second. And you also just have to be mindful of playing the blue line for Brunick. Like exactly how many points is he going to put up for from back there? Again, he may have offensive talent, but it’s still tough when you are a rookie defenseman. Second power play though. Second power play. Yeah, absolutely. Um, but with offensive-minded defenseman already everywhere, it’s I mean, heck, maybe the Penguins, maybe everyone’s rolling all cylinders, and the Penguins have the most lethal blue line in the league, but it’s tough. I I do like Kovven as an option, and I like um like I said, uh Brunick being a secondary option as number two on that. Yeah, the reason I would put him up there, I I do think McGroy’s going to score a good bit. I just again, McGroy’s injury is is is a I’m not saying it’s a phantom injury because it’s a real injury, but you just don’t know what it is. You don’t know the severity. You don’t know the timeline, and you also don’t know how long it’s going to take him to ramp up because he missed all of training camp. So, he’s going to need to ramp up and get into game action. Not to mention the fact that this is a kid who’s still adjusting to the NHL game. So, I I think Brunick has a leg up on McGordy in that instance. And on that third pairing, if it does remain, Matt Dumba, Harrison Brunick, Brunick’s going to be the guy toting the puck, he is going to be the guy setting things up. So, he has a chance to not only score goals like we saw on Friday, not only make nice setup passes and get assists, but a lot of those first passes out of the defensive zone could turn into secondary assists, and he could start collecting them a lot quicker than uh than you expect. So, I don’t know. This is going to be a fun race to watch this year and I’m excited that we get layers of exciting prospect hockey to watch. We have the guys at the NHL level which is so exciting. But you also still have a very good crop of guys at Wils Bear and then as we’ve already seen I mean the 2025 draft class early early early returns but have you seen what Will Horov is doing up there in Michigan looking good. I’m telling you Bill Zan is going to have a phenomenal year too once he gets healthy. So, it we have so much to look at and so much to watch as far as prospect hockey is concerned. I’m excited that a lot of that is going to be at the NHL level, though. Yeah, that’ll be fun. All right, we got two more to get to here. Where will the Penguins finish in the division? I’ll go first on this one. I know I’ve sounded very bullish on the Penguins chances this year, and I think this is a bullish prediction. Fifth in the division is where I think they’ll finish. But I think there might be a chance if all things go well, particularly goalending, they have a chance at fourth. That’s fascinating. Mhm. Is that now? Do you want to know the breakdown of it? Is is that why you’re Is that why you’re saying is that I mean No, I’m just looking at the rest of the Eastern Conference. The rest Well, yes, the Metro, but also the East as a whole and going you’re saying fourth for the Metro. So, you’re saying five Atlantic teams are going to make the playoffs again or are the Penguins making the playoffs in this in this simulation? I think they are in if I if I if they finish where I’m putting them, I think they will be in contention for the playoffs. Whoa. Way higher than what I had them then. Probably. Yeah. The way I look at the the Metro going into this season, just one man’s opinion. Carolina, New Jersey, and Washington. Specifically, Carolina, New Jersey, I think are top three. Washington. I don’t know if last year was real or if it was just a lightning rod built off of the the great chase to to Wayne Gretzky’s record, but I do think they’re a good enough team to still be at the top of the division. The Rangers, I would say, are probably at four, but also you look at that roster and man, is it not as good as it used to be. The only thing about the Rangers is I do think there’s a bump there because of Mike Sullivan. because that team failed to meet expectations because of the chaos off the ice. Mike Sullivan will not put up with chaos off the ice. They’ve also eradicated a lot of that chaos, right? He put his guy in place in JT Miller. Yeah, he’s a nononsense type of head coach. That nonsense has kind of dragged them down. Now, do I think their roster is as strong as it was whenever that nonsense was dragging them down? No. you still have Vincent Troch as your topline center at the moment. But I do think that with that and good goalending, that’s a team that I could see definitely making the playoffs. Not to mention, and I I saw this today when I was thinking of this prediction and looking at all the teams in the Metro, we might see uh former buddy Connor Sherry on the in the in the lineup on on Tuesday. Did you know that Connor Sherry was in Rangers camp on a PTO? cuz of course he is because Mike Sullivan is fiercely loyal to that 201617 squad and Sherry apparently has had a good preseason so we might be seeing Connor Sherry on opening night. I I did know he was there and you know what Mike Sull is is nothing if not consistent. What a treasure that man is. Good for him man. Good for Connor Sherry too. And I mean here’s the thing after a year where Conor Sherry played five games literally you can count them on one hand. five games at the NHL level by the Tampa Bay Lightning and then was sent down to the Syracuse Crunch for the rest of the season basically not thought of again and then they mutually parted ways basically being like Connor I don’t want to be here I want to play in NHL hockey and Tampa being like yeah please leave like yeah go like yeah it’s best for you it’s best for us go and of course it’s Mike Sullivan who we always talk about if you earn his trust he will be loyal to you forever will he how many years has it been and he is still loyal to Connor Sherry Yep. The 33y old, which he never looked and still doesn’t look like he should ever be over 30. Yeah. Yeah, that’ll be that’ll be interesting. I’m putting a lot of I’m putting a lot more into the Rangers this season than I did last year. The nonsense is gone. I think Mike Sullivan’s going to lock that room in. I really do. I don’t think the lineup’s great, but I think they’re going to figure it out along the way. So, goending where the Pens finishing in the division this year, according to you. According to me, I’m gonna go seventh again. Oh, sorry. That hurts. It does. I listen. Kyle Dus is going to spend a lot of time in Happy Valley this year. I would I am going to try to Kyle D is going to spend a lot of time in Happy Valley this year. Not that he’s going to try and make this team lose, but I you look at how good the rest of the league and the division kind of is. Mhm. It’s going to be tough for the Penguins to stack up with that for the Penguins with Tristan Jarry and Net with unproven faces in those rookies in the lineup for a little bit. Again, yeah, like they’re doing really well. Doesn’t mean they’re going to continue. They will. I think they will, but you never know. Um, like I said, I’m going to give the Rangers a lot of credit this year. I think Washington’s gonna fall off quite a bit, but still kind of hold on enough because of Ovkin. Uh, listen, Carolina has to get it done in the playoffs. We know they’re going to get there. Easy as that. Yeah, the Devils will probably straighten it out this year if they can keep Jack Hughes healthy. I I’m gonna give the Blue Jackets a ton of credit, too. I last year was a bit of lightning in a bottle and a bit of playing with a lot of um a lot of weird feelings and a lot of trying to win for Johnny Guerrero. But I think now it is the realization of holy heck we can do this. Yeah, they’re going to really go off this. I also like Greavves and net for them. I think that I think the Blue Jackets are going to be a playoff team and a really good playoff team at that. Wow. I already said the Rangers. The Islanders are going to be questionable. I don’t know. They could go any way, any which way. Even with Matthew Dar’s new new front office face. Um, they could pick it up. If Matt Barzol stays healthy and finds his game again, that’s a good team. I don’t know about a playoff team, but at least a good team again. And I just don’t know what’s going on in Philly. I really don’t. Rick Tocket there. That’s going to be entertaining. Trevor Zagers is going to be really good there. Reawoken. Maybe the Penguins finish eighth as I talk myself through this, but I don’t think they’re going to be I think the Flyers and the Penguins are going to be just battling it out down there again. But also, the Flyers could be good. Man, this division’s very very interesting. Yeah, it is a is a wild division. I think there’s going to be a lot of parody once again in the Eastern Conference as there is no outside of the Florida Panthers, there’s no real like super juggernaut in the East, right? There’s certainly not one in the Metro division. I mean, you look at Carolina and you say, “Wow, regular season beast.” But, you know, outside of that, it’s up for grabs. You know, there’s a lot of Well, if if Jack Hughes can stay healthy, yes. If the Columbus Blue Jackets young players can carry over what they did last year, if you know, Washington’s style of play and Logan Thompson is able to repeat his performance. There’s a lot of ifs. And there’s a lot of ifs with the Penguins, too. But all I’m saying is in this season where anything can happen, where we haven’t played a singular second of NHL hockey, if is good, if is good. Because if gives the Penguins a window into being better than expectations are this year. And that’s what I’m hoping for. Now the question becomes, close this out. Doesn’t have to be a long answer. I think I know yours. Will the Penguins make the playoffs? Or what I’m imagining, if you think think they’re going to be seventh or eighth in division, then the answer is clearly no. No. We’re going to be watching the draft lottery so closely this year. I think I really do. I’m sorry. I just keep an eye on those lottery balls, guys. You know, it’s weird because I’ve been so positive. I think you’d agree with that. I’ve been very positive on this episode when it comes to season predictions. Mhm. To close it all out with saying no, they’re not going to make the playoffs. But the as of right now, there’s there’s not enough proof of concept for me to say, “Yeah, the Penguins can be a playoff the Penguins, not for me to predict the Penguins to make the playoffs.” Could they be a playoff team? Potentially, but I’m not going to sit here before the season starts and be able to confidently say yes, I will predict the Penguins to make the playoffs. So, as of right now, my prediction is no, and I am looking forward to being proven wrong. Okay. Spin Zone. Once again, I’m looking forward to entertainment all season. This team may not be good. They might be bad or they might not be bad either. But you know what? One way or the other, we’re going to be entertained all year long. That is that’s the one thing I keep telling people. That’s the cardinal rule of the Penguins, though. Even when they were bad, they were entertaining. Mhm. Right. The last three years, they haven’t made the playoffs. Last year, they missed by a country mile. They made the first year. They were very Yes. But what were they? They were entertaining. They’re always entertaining. So, we’re going to be entertained. We’re ready to be entertained starting on Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden. But that’s going to do it for this episode of Tip of the Iceberg. Thank you guys so much for tuning in to this one. Remember, you can find us on YouTube at Tip of the Iceberg or you can catch us anywhere you get your podcast from. We’ll see you guys next time. [Music]

Rookie surprises headline the Penguins’ opening roster, plus big questions and 2025-26 predictions.

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