Three reasons why this season may have doomed the Orioles beyond 2025

Three reasons why this season may have doomed the Orioles beyond 2025

I certainly want to live in the world where the Orioles bounce back and get back to the postseason in 2026, but that may not be the reality. On today’s episode, three reasons why the Orioles may not bounce back next year. You are Locked On Orioles, your daily Baltimore Orioles podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hey there, Orioles fans. Today is Wednesday, October 8th, 2025, and welcome back in to the Locked on Orioles podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. As always, I’m your host, Connor Nukem. And coming up on today’s episode, we’re going to look forward to next season. Because last episode, we talked about the three reasons why the Orioles will bounce back, get back to being a postseason level team in 2026 after this disastrous 2025 season. On today’s episode, you know, went to journalism school, got to both sides it. We take the other side. the three reasons why the issues from this year may spill into next year and the O’s may have a much tougher time turning things around. But that’s all coming up on this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast, which is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the FanDuel app today. So again, if you haven’t checked out yesterday’s episode, make sure to go and do that. It’s right here on the YouTube channel. Make sure to like, comment, and subscribe. It’s wherever you listen to podcasts as well. If you can leave a fivestar rating and a review there, that really, really helps out the show. Did the three reasons why the Orioles will be able to turn it around next year. Talked about how they’ve got to be healthier. Talked about how the rotation already looks better and talked about how the a bullpen, which might be their weakest link on paper right now, is the easiest part of a roster to build in one off season. But if you’re being honest about the Orioles, there is a flip side to this argument. and that is the Orioles went 75 and 87 this year. That was a 16 loss or 16 win difference from last season when they made the wild card and a 26 win difference from the year before when they won the division in 2023. They’re certainly on a downward trajectory. Now things are going to change. They fired Brandon Hyde. They’re seemingly in the process of hiring a new manager. They’re hopefully going to spend some more money this off season, but there are still problems here. And even with additions, there are problems that could point to this team may not turn it around. So today, it is the three reasons why the Orioles may not turn things around in 2026 and why the 2025 season could actually be a precursor of things to come for this Orioles team. So let’s start with reason number one, why the Orioles may not turn things back around next year. And I would say number one is it is a lot to ask for this entire Orioles lineup to bounce back. Now, injuries certainly played a role in the Orioles offense having its struggles. I relayed them countlessly on reason number one on yesterday’s episode because you can’t get that injured again. The Orioles were so injured the amount of time that, you know, guys like Adley Rutman and Jordan Westber and other important hitters missed on this team. A reason why they should bounce back is that those guys just probability wise are going to be on the field for more of 2026 than they were in 2025. And that is important. But when some of those guys were on the field, they also took a step back because basically everybody but Jackson Holiday from this Orioles lineup spent time on the injured list. But also almost everyone kind of but Jackson Holiday took a step backwards this year. Now I would say the biggest change in the Orio lineup from 2024 to 2025 was essentially the move swapping out Anthony Santandere for Tyler O’Neal. And I’m actually going to get into that swap out a little deeper on tomorrow’s episode. So, make sure and come back for that one. But the Orioles team otherwise was was pretty similar. When you put out the healthy lineup, it was a very similar lineup for the O’s. They had a 699 team OPS this season. That was 21st in Major League Baseball. Even with the offensive struggles down the stretch last year, they still finished with a 751 team OPS, fourth in Major League Baseball. stark changes for this offense. Now, to be fair, there were two months this year where outside of injury, the Orioles didn’t have three of their best hitters because they traded Raone Lauraniano, Ryan O’Harn, and Cedric Mullins along with Ramonas away at the deadline. But specifically, Lauriano O’Harn and Mullins were their first, second, and fifth best hitters on the team at the time of that trade. And they certainly got worse after the trade. The Orioles pre-deeline had a 722 team OPS. That was 13th in baseball. It dropped to 650 in the final two months of the season post deadline. That was the worst OPS in Major League Baseball after they made those trades. So, there was an expected drop off when you trade away three or five best hitters. Your offense is absolutely going to get worse. Even if you know they got healthier and they of course promoted Samuel Ozio and Dylan Beavers, your offense is just going to get worse. But it’s still concerning how much worse they got. Even with, you know, there were still guys out with injury, it’s still concerning because the reality of the situation is had the O’s been good and had they not made those trades, there’s a situation where Ryan O’Harn, Raone Lauraniano, and Cedric Mullins aren’t back on this team anyway. I mean, O’Harn and Mullins were going to be free agents either way. Lauraniano probably would have been back because he had a pretty cheap team option. He was so good this year that they would have brought him back. But even Lauriano that he’s not part of the young hitting core that this Orioles team is kind of relying on has built a nucleus around to try and win a championship. The guys who they have more so built around were not great. Everybody I’m really going to mention here five main names of this young core. I’m going to put Ryan Mount Castle in this group as well. I think he’s kind of worked his way out of this core. But five players who took a legitimate step back this season. Gunnar Henderson, who was an MVP, not front runner, but a serious candidate behind Aaron Judge and Bobby Wit Jr. in 2024 when he had a 154 WRC plus dropped to a 120 W wrc plus this year. Remember, WRC Plus is weighted runs created plus is kind of an all-encompassing offensive statistic that includes how you hit for average power, how you get on base, but also it adjusts for park factor as well. So, you know, you’re it’s not going to be as high if you hit in a a hitter’s park versus in a pitcher park. You’re going to be rewarded a little bit more where 100 is league average. So, 154 for Gunner. Last year, he was 54% better than league average. This year at a 120, just 20% better than league average. He was still a good hitter, but he kind of stopped hitting for power. Went from 37 to 17 home runs. Some of that was injury, and we’ll get to that on the Gunnar Henderson season review episode, but he took a step back. Now, was he still a good player? Absolutely. And his base running and his defense both got better. So, he was still a super valuable player. Was by far the most valuable Orio this year, I think. But he wasn’t the same hitter. And it’s a similar case for other guys, except for Jordan Westber, he probably took the smallest step back. He went from a 124 to a 115 W wrc plus and he also dealt with even more injuries. Westber and Gunner I’m not really super concerned about. I mean even with injuries and poor performance they were still good hitters when they were on the field this season. I think you pencil them in to still shorts stop and third base pretty much every day next year. I’m not worried about those two guys. It’s it’s really the others. And now now Jackson Holiday is probably not in this category because his offensive stats they actually got better this year. Now, I don’t still think he didn’t finish exactly where he wanted to be offensively, but you you can’t deny Jackson Holiday took a step forward in his first full big league season in 2025. You could maybe argue it was still disappointing because the stats aren’t great at the end, but it was still better than last year. We’re really doing the comparison. But, I think Holiday still falls into this category because we haven’t seen a full season yet where you can feel confident that he’s going to be a good big league regular. I still think that’s going to happen because he’s still 21 years old. He’s still younger than basically everybody he’s playing against and he’s he’s he’s on an upward trajectory, but I would need to see like the full season of a, you know, just like a 110 WRC plus next year to be like, “All right, we’re good to go with Jackson.” But I I’m still penciling him in at second base every single day. The guys who worry me are the Colton Cows. Tons of injuries this year. Strikeout rate went up. He dropped from a 119 WRC plus last year when he should have won AO rookie of the year to an 83 this year. That is a huge drop off. Ryan Mount Castle. There’s obviously questions about whether or not he’s back with the Orioles next year. He’s only under contract through next season, but he made way less contract contact. He went from a 107 last year to an 81 WRC plus this year. And Adley Rutman had injuries last year, suffered even more injuries this year, went from a 103 last year to a 91 WRC plus this year. You are asking Cowser, potentially Mount Castle, and Rutman to bounce back. You’re asking Jackson Holiday to take another big step forward and you’re asking probably one of two of Gunnar or Westber to get back to their high watermark. That is a lot to ask especially if you are not going to bring in other talent and some of these guys will bounce back because a lot of this was injury and if they’re going to be healthier in 2026 they’re going to be better and if they’re on the field more the O’s are going to be better. I think that’s pretty clear and I don’t think many people would disagree with that sentiment. But you when I say, “Hey, I bet these guys are going to bounce back.” You ask a lot of all of these guys getting back to their level. The way to mitigate that is, well, maybe they they really do spend on a big bat and they put a big giant bat in the middle of this order and it gives you just just a higher ceiling in general in this lineup if guys are going to struggle again and allows you to mix and match others. But are they going to have the willingness to do something like that? And that is I think reason number two why this may not come back next year is that the Orioles really haven’t shown the willingness still even under David Rubenstein to spend the big money. We will talk about that coming up next. But first, this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NFL season is here and FanDuel has an offer you don’t want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That’s right. Just pick a bet, put down five bucks, and if it hits, you’ll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. And FanDuel is great because it gives you so many ways to play parlays, player props, you can even follow live games right there with the live line. And it makes watching football even more exciting. I don’t want to watch the Ravens anymore, but FanDuel helps, you know, get a little bit of action and watch these other teams. So whether you’re a casual fan or love diving into the stats, FanDuel makes the game day experience so much better. So what are you waiting for? Visit fanuel.com to download the FanDuel app today and get started. So we’re on to reason number two why the Orioles may not be able to turn things back around in the 2026 season. And that second reason is that the Orioles have shown really no willingness to give out longerterm deals. One of the main ways to mitigate the risk of some of those hitters I just talked about not bouncing back next year or maybe still struggling with injuries again next year, not being on the field is to add a big bat. And I’m pretty confident in free agency or trade the Orioles will add one to two major league hitters to this team this off season. But if they do what they’ve normally done, they’re going to be mostly bench or platoon guys that they add. You know, they’re going after a a Harrison Bader, a Rob Reffnneider, a Willie Castro type of player who helps you and has been a good hitter and can play multiple positions, but is not a guy you’re hitting, you know, third or fourth in your lineup and is really helping run you to a World Series. They’re just nice players that helps your team get a little bit better. They’re certainly going to add one or two of those guys, but the Kyle Schwarbers, the Alex Bregman’s, the Pete Alonzos of the world are also out there and they’re going to cost a lot more years and a lot more money, but they’re guys you can stick second, third, fourth, fifth in your lineup, feel good about them and help your team a whole lot more. The kind of hitters that when they’re hot could carry you to a World Series during a postseason run. Now, the Orioles did give finally a multi-year contract last offseason. three years just shy of $50 million to Tyler O’Neal does have a player opt out after year one. Although it seems pretty likely that O’Neal is gonna not opt out and stay with the Orioles for the remaining two years on that deal. But three years 50 million to Tyler O’Neal who was coming off a really good year in Boston in 2024 but also has had all the injury concerns in his career. Those certainly reared their ugly heads basically to almost the maximum level this season because he only played in 54 games. one of the lowest numbers of his career, even with all the injuries he has sustained. A three-year $50 million deal is really not super close to the kind of deals those other guys, Schwarber, Bregman, Alonzo, are going to be getting or have even gotten in the past when they’ve gotten free agent contracts. And even with that, O’Neal is still the only multi-year deal that Elias has given to anyone. So, if they really want to make the impact hitter move, and potentially it’s not out there via trade, are they going to be willing to do it with a hitter? I mean, on one hand, you could say, you know, the the whole thing since the Orioles have gotten good in 2022 is that if they’re going to spend the money, spend it on pitching. They have all this young position player talent. The pitching is behind it. You got to go spend it on pitching. And they haven’t done that. But after watching the 2025 season, again, there’s a lot of mitigating factors with the guys they traded away and all the injuries they sustained. I feel like you could make an argument and I you could probably argue either way, but you could make an argument that the bats were actually a bigger problem than the Arms by the end of the season. That was not the case the beginning of the year. The Orioles had like a historically bad rotation at one point at the beginning of the year, but by the end, I would say the Arms were ahead of the bats on this team. So, that makes you think, do they need to spend that money on bat? Maybe they do. And so, you’re like, would they do that? Because it’s always been said they need the Arms more. Then on the flip side, it’s like, well, Elite, they they have given out one multi-year contract, and it was to a bat. They did give it to Tyler O’Neal last offseason. They still haven’t done that at all to a pitcher. Every free agent pitcher they’ve brought in since Michaelas has taken over has been on just simply a one-year deal. Haven’t even given out a one-year deal with a player option. The best they’ve done is like the team option that Andrew Kitri got last year. He was traded at the deadline anyway. they’re not giving out these multi-year deals and especially not to pitchers. And so even if they don’t add the hitter, they’re going to have to spend on the pitching even though I talked about yesterday this rotation is in a much better spot even without an addition than it was a year prior. So that’s that’s a positive heading into spring training, but there are still additions that need to be made and you’d like to go after a number one and maybe a number three or four to add to this rotation. Dylan CE, Michael King, Framber Valdez, etc. are out there as potential ace type pitchers to stack up there with Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers and maybe even Grayson Rodriguez and put together a really really good playoff type rotation and they would all help and maybe take this team back to the level they expect to be at. But it’s going to take five plus years and it’s going to take maybe 200 plus million dollars to get those kind of deals done. Even on the cheaper end for some of these guys, you’re going to be shelling out $150 million plus to get them. And we know the Orioles made a competitive offer for Corbin Burns that was up in the what, like 170 plus million range for him. And so they’ve been at least willing to to offer that money, but it still came up short in terms of years and money that Burns eventually got from the Diamondbacks. Now, did that signing work out so far? No, because Burns immediately got Tommy John surgery. But there’s still plenty of years for him to get healthy, come back and pitch well as the ace of that Diamondback staff. and the Orioles still don’t have someone signed long term at the top of that staff. And all these good teams do. You need, again, there’s a solid rotation already. They’re going to be willing to add cheaper guys on one-year deals, you know, other maybe hopefully better versions of Charlie Morton and Tommy Yuki Sugano and Zack Efflin, but you need a true number one. I mean, just look at the teams left in the postseason. Now, full disclosure, because of scheduling this week, I am recording this here on Monday evening. So, some of these teams I name by the time you hear this on Wednesday may be eliminated, but the Tigers are in a special situation because they have Ter Scubal. They have a homegrown best pitcher in baseball. Mariners, Luis Castillo on a big contract. Yankees, Max Freed, Carlos Rodan, Garrick Cole, big contracts. Blue Jays, Kevin Gosman, Jose Brios, pretty goodized contracts. Dodgers, Blake Snell, Yoshinobi Yamamoto, Tyler Glass, Show Otani, etc., etc. on big contracts. Phillies, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Christopher Sanchez on long-term contracts. Brewers have another just homegrown ace in Freddy Peralta and they’re the Brewers. Cubs, Shot Minaga, even kind of Jameson Tyote on these longer term contracts where you actually spend money on pitching and look at that. Those are the eight teams remaining in the playoffs as I record this on Monday. So to get to that level where they want to be of success and in the postseason consistently, I mean, you can do it some years here, years there without it. I mean, we’ve seen it. The Orioles without spending big on the pitching won a division two years ago and got to the postseason again last year. But to sustain it and especially with all the injuries that just happened to pitchers in general, you’re going to probably need that number one. So, here we are. They’re going to need to spend to get back to that level. They have the money to do it, especially since David Rubenstein has taken over. This is now his second off season as the lead of this ownership group. all this money he has to spend and Mike Elias and him saying that you know that the capital and the money is not an issue for this team. But even with those words, their actions have shown no indication that they’re going to spend that money. Now, if they do and you know, free agency opens up in November and they they give out a multi-year deal pretty immediately to a starting pitcher, we might have to step back and say, “Okay, this is going to be different.” But until they do it, it’s going to be a worry and it’s going to be one of these reasons why they may not be able to turn this thing around. So, those are the first two reasons, but there’s one more I want to get to, and is it the greatest mentality to have? No. But it’s the reality of the situation, and that is the division that the Orioles play in. Three of the teams in the AL East are in the postseason. And the fourth one is the peskiest team in baseball, maybe in the Tampa Bay Rays. You’re not in a great spot where other teams will just help you win a division. That’s not going to happen. The O’s have to go get it. So, let’s talk a little bit about that AL East and how it factors in here to finish off the show coming up next. But first, this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast is also brought to you by Rugiet. Now, you’ve probably heard of things like Viagra or Seialis, maybe you’ve even tried them, but if you’re looking for something beyond the usual pill, it’s time to meet Rugiet Golong. That’s exactly where Ruggie Golong comes in. This isn’t just another ED pill. It’s a total gamecher for confidence. It combines two doctor trusted medications in one dualaction formula. And the process is simple. You connect with a board-certified doctor 100% online. And if prescribed, your treatment ships discreetly right to your door. So, are you ready to level up your confidence in the bedroom? Head to rugit.com and use promo code lockedonmlb for 15% off your order. That’s ruggit.com. Promo code locked on MLB for 15% off that first order. Make sure to use our code so they know that we sent you. So, my three reasons why the Orioles may not be able to turn this around next season. Number one on the list was that it’s a lot to ask this lineup to fully bounce back with all the guys having down years. Number two, they’ve shown no willingness to give out long-term deals. So, to bring in a big hitter to mitigate that or to bring in that top level starting pitcher that they clearly need, they just haven’t shown the willingness to do that. And number three is that the entirety of the rest of their division in the AL East is trying to win, too. There are no Colorado Rockies. There are no Los Angeles Angels or Chicago White Socks in their division. It’s not even like they’re in the AL Central where even though the Guardians and the Royals are trying to win, the Twins and White Socks are not. And the Guardians and Royals, they are very flawed teams who are unwilling to put together a good enough offense to go the distance. Now, the Guardians have basically maximized what they could do with that roster. very impressive what they’ve done over the past few years and it was impressive that the Guardians made the playoffs last year and swept the Orioles out. But those teams have their limits because those offenses are just I mean besides Bobby Whit and Jose Ramirez, they’re kind of sad to look at at times. Even in the AL West, right, you’ve got the the Astros might be on the downswing. The Angels are a complete disaster. The Rangers might be selling off a little bit at this point and the A’s have no idea where they’re going to play. But in the AL East, you have the Yankees who, yeah, are on the brink as I record this here in the ALDS, but they’re going to keep spending. It’s a star-studded roster, and they’re going to be, whether they get knocked out right now or not, are going to be competing for the World Series again in 2026. And they got Aaron Judge and a lot of players under long-term contracts that are going to keep them good for a while. You got the Toronto Blue Jays, the team that actually won the AL East, the team that seems like they are on the verge of knocking out the Yankees in the ALDS. And getting back to the ALCS after a disappointing down year, very similar to the Orioles year this year that they had in 2024. They did bounce back to come back in and win the division. Now they’re having some playoff success for the first time in almost a decade. That’s something they haven’t had even when they’ve had regular season success. They’ve got Vlad in a long-term deal. They’ve got an interesting offense. They’ve got some good pitching. and they’ve got all of Canada behind them with money to spend. They are willing to spend that money. And then you have the Red Sox. Disappointing that they were knocked out in the wildard round, but they have put together a good young crew that got back to the postseason. They cleared up all that Raphael Devers money with that trade. Alex Bregman’s going to opt out. They’re going to be spending, I think, a lot of money this offseason to specifically add starting pitching. And they’ve got all these great young hitters coming up like Barceler and Roman Anthony. And it’s a good lineup already. Like the Red Sox are going to be good for a while, I think. So, you got those three teams there. And then the Rays. Yeah, the Rays had a down year this year, but they’ve been in the postseason race recently. They were neck-and-neck with the Orioles for all of 2023 in the AL East race. And and it’s the Rays. The Rays also just got new ownership approved. Like, they’re going to be in charge at some point this off season. You can’t spend any less than Stu Sternberg, the Rays previous owner, did. The Rays are probably going to be spending a little bit more in free agency this year than they usually do. You add that to the Rays front office and the way they operate and the way they still create playoff teams with this small budget. You give them a bigger budget, they’re going to be even more of an issue potentially maybe as early as next year than they’ve been in the past, you’ve legitimately got with the Orioles trying to turn it around five teams that are pretty much going for it heading into 2026. There’s not a lot of divisions like that, right? It’s not the AL West, it’s not the AL Central, NL East. I mean, yes, Marlins look a lot better, but are they going to spend? Then the Nationals are kind of a disaster. Then you’ve got the NL Central, right? I mean, I don’t really know what the Cardinals are going to do. Heim Bloom has now taken over, so maybe they’ll get back to spending some money, but there’s always the Pirates in there anyway who aren’t going to do anything. And then in the NLS, you have the Rockies, who are complete disaster, and you do have the Giants who are willing to spend, but they’re like the perpetual 500 team. The AL East going into next year is I think hands down without a doubt once again the toughest division in Major League Baseball. And that’s where you’re competing with the as the Orioles, not just on the field, but also in spending to make your team better. You got some of the teams that are going to be right there with you, just right in your division. And it’s a little easier now with the balanced schedule, less division games to get out of a tough division and still make the playoffs. But it’s still hard. You’re still playing Toronto, New York, Boston, and Tampa more than any of the other teams in Major League Baseball. and they’re tracking to be some of the best teams you face next year. Now, that’s probably the worst argument of the three reasons I gave that they may not turn around because the Orioles have always been in this division. And quite frankly, for a long time, this division’s been seen as the best in baseball. So, it’s something they’ve kind of always dealt with. But, there’s a chance this goes to a new level next year. And I think some of it’s because the Red Sox got back to it, because the Blue Jays got back to it, and because the Rays got new ownership kind of all in one year, it could be the perfect storm for just an incredible AL East in 2026. And even if the Orioles do all the right things this offseason and build this team back up and they do what they need to do on paper in the offseason, all of that just makes it even harder to win in this division next year. Now, I again generally lean towards the positive. I think there’s still a lot of talent on this team. I think the Orioles are going to be willing to spend more from that front office this off seasonason. You know, we’ll we’ll see who comes in as the new manager for this ball club as well. And I think they’re going to be a much better and much more competitive team in 2026. I think the O’s are going to get back to where they need to be next season. I I truly do. But that’s not to say that that take is the end all beall. We just saw them lose 87 games. If it’s a similarish roster next year and they have some more injuries, it could happen again. And these are three reasons why it absolutely could. So, the Orioles need to do all they can this offseason and on the field and in the clubhouse and in the front office during next season to make sure this and and injuries are hard to control, but you can still be better with them. This needs to just not happen. Those are reasons it could. They got to find a way to stop that and get this team back to the postseason roster. We’ve seen it be the last two years and we know that it can be again. That’ll do it for today’s episode. Thank you so so much for tuning in. Support the show. Follow, subscribe wherever you enjoy and consume this podcast. Remember, we’re still five days a week even with the Orio season done through November. Got some exciting playoff baseball happening. We have everything covered with this managerial search, but we got another episode coming up here on Thursday. gonna be looking back at all the moves that the Orioles made over the past year. Now, this evaluation on these moves on tomorrow’s episode is not going to be the end all be all, especially for the trades where prospects came in and they haven’t even gotten to the big leagues yet. But we’re going to look at some of the decisions the Orioles made last off season, right? Declining the option on Danny Kulom, non-tendering Jacob Webb, choosing Tyler O’Neal over Anthony Santandere. How did those things work out? Then we’ll talk about all the trades. All the players the Orioles traded away. Sono, Kitri, Baker, Dominguez, Morton, Aras, Mullins, O’Harn, and Lauraniano all dealt around the deadline. All bringing prospects back to this oral system. We’ll talk about how all those players did on their new teams, how those prospects looked in their two months so far in the Orio system, and if the O’s would consider bringing any of those guys back who are now hitting free agency this off season. But that’s all coming up on tomorrow’s episode. Until then, I’m Connor Nukem and this has been the Locked On or podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day.

The Baltimore Orioles showed a lot of problems this season, and they may be too much to overcome. Host Connor Newcomb gives you three reasons why the Orioles may not be able to bounce back in 2026, including the offensive struggles, the lack of spending, and the competitive AL East.

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