New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints Preview & Prediction | PFF

New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints Preview & Prediction | PFF

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So, I I think we’ll be curious to see how the Patriots respond to going on the road again after getting such a big win on Sunday night over Buffalo. But you can’t, you know, you can’t see this and have it have a letown game here against the Saints because especially their defense has not been playing that bad. But the focus obviously has to be on on Drake May, right? And how much better he’s looked this season. The work that Josh McDaniels has done with him on that side of the ball. And just in general, I mean, the big moment and the couple of improvised plays are going to get the big story right there was the big throw to Diggs rolling to his right. And then when he has to stiff arm 320 lb Dayquin Jones and just find a way to get the football out and put that last drive together. It’s a big moment for him, but I think it’s representative of how much better he’s played in the first five weeks of this season. And one thing that jumps out as me is his control and his accuracy of the outer parts of the field. So often with other quarterbacks, we talk about the middle of the field and dominating there. Drake May is dominating outside the numbers right now, Trevor, when he’s throwing outside the numbers. He’s the second highest graded quarterback in football, only behind Jordan Love. He’s been outstanding out there. Almost 10 yards per attempt. That’s a top five mark. A 129.5 passer rating when throwing outside the numbers. I think Josh McDaniels has done an unbelievable job of simplifying the game for Drake May. Isolating routes on the outside. Wheeling tight ends and running backs out of the back field. Quick game under center has helped a lot. I think these one-on-one matchups, finding Stefon Diggs and Kan Booty one-on-one outside has worked so well for this offense right now. And I’ve actually got a film breakdown on this coming out most likely tomorrow, I believe, early in the day tomorrow. and and it’s just Drake May and Josh McDaniels working so well east and west because they don’t have a ton of downfield speed threats in this offense, right? They haven’t gotten Kyle Williams involved at all. They’re not really pushing the ball vertically down the field, but they’re stressing defenses east and west from sideline to sideline with a mountain of different concepts. And it actually reminds me a lot of the one year that Josh McDaniels had M. Jones in 2021, his rookie season. And M. Jones throwing outside the numbers that year was the eighth highest graded passer in the NFL. McDaniel leaves to go to Vegas. That production drops off the table. So, I think New England right now with a bunch of different weapons and with Drake May throwing the ball so well. They’re attacking the outer parts of the field. That’s an interesting matchup because the Saints outside the numbers have actually the third highest coverage grade in the NFL right now. We’ll see where the emphasis goes for the Saints defense in this game to stop those outside throws, but that’s where Drake May is winning right now. Yeah, it’s a little bit of strength on strength on both sides of the ball in this matchup. I I I was going to call out the fact that two of the highest graded players in New Orleans team last week in the win were their outside corners, Koul McKintry and Alante Taylor. And I think that those guys matching up against May outside the numbers is going to make for a really intriguing matchup. I also think on the other side of things, Spencer Rattler has had a lot of success when they have been willing to dial it up deep. 9.2 2 averaged depth at the target last week, 2.44 time to throw. I mean, Spencer Rattler was confident last week against this Giants defense and with throwing the ball further down the field. So, the average depth of target went up and yet the time to throw was his lowest of the season. So, there’s a ton of confidence in how he was able to play last week. And so, you think, all right, well, they’re going to continue to dial it up. They’re going to continue to hunt for these explosive plays, which they really need. But on the other side of things, over the last two weeks specifically, when Christian Gonzalez has been back for the New England Patriots, 48.7 coverage grade on passes of 15 or more yards. Now, you might say to yourself, “Oh, hold on, 48.7, that’s not very high.” But you got to think, anytime a team is attempting a pass that is 15 or more yards down the field, when they’re connecting on it, your coverage grade as a team takes a massive hit. It’s not like you’re giving up an underneath 5 yard pass or something like that. If you’re giving up something that is considered an explosive play, your coverage grade is going to go down. So that 48.7 coverage grade on those deeper passes is actually eighth best in the NFL over the last two weeks. So since getting Christian Gonzalez back, the confidence has really been there for this New England secondary. And we’ll see. It’s, you know, W I saw a couple other people in the chat were mentioning this like, hey, it’s a young team for the New England Patriots. Like could this be a man they’re coming off the high of going to Buffalo and defeating this team. Are they going to have that same sort of focus and discipline to be able to go in New Orleans and do the same thing against an opponent that you know if you don’t if you don’t catch yourself, you could certainly think of this group as inferior and you could say, “Hey, we just beat the Bills in Buffalo. We’re going to walk in New Orleans and get this win easy.” I’m not so sure that that’s going to be the case. And so this game could be wacky. I I’m not taking the Saints in this one like I did last week. I I’m going Pat Patriots 21, Saints 13. I think at least the Patriots defense is going to lock in for this one. And although I don’t expect the Patriots offense to be as consistent and explosive as it was last week, I do think it’s enough for them to get the win. So 21 to 13 New England here from me. I actually love that that was brought up in the chat there with the veteran players because I think that was a big factor in their win in Buffalo is they got the big contributions from veteran players. Stefon Diggs, guys like Morgan Moses, Robert Spelain, Harold Landry, Garrett Bradbury, even Mike Frabel and Josh McDaniels as the veteran coaches, right, running the team right now. I I think that is a big factor and those veteran guys have to be the ones to get them through another road game in a loud environment and go, “Hey guys, just cuz we got a big win last week doesn’t mean we don’t have the job to do this week.” I think a big factor on the field in this game is that look, New England’s offensive line is one of the most improved units in the NFL. They’re fifth in the in the uh in the league in pass blocking grade. The Saints have the lowest pass rush grade in the NFL and I think the fact that Drake May is going to have so many clean pockets is going to be the difference in this game. I think the Saints defense keeps him in it. I’m taking New England to get a close win 20 to 17. All right, similar scores there. 20 to 17 and then I had 21 to 13. Um, but this is that that is this is the probably the sneakiest intriguing game that we have this week given the fact that you wouldn’t necessarily think it’s a strength on strength on both sides of the ball, but it does feel like that is the case. So, we’ll see which team can come out on top. And I’m very curious to see how the veterans, like you mentioned, lead this this New England Patriots team. And if they’re able to come out, man, hit the ground running just like they left off last week, man, then we need to start talking about this Patriots team a lot more seriously throughout the rest of the season and perhaps even into the playoffs.

PFF’s Dalton Wasserman and Trevor Sikkema preview the matchup between The New England Patriots and The New Orleans Saints.

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