Hello All,

Here's my first recap of the year. As always, please send me your thoughts, critiques, and questions!!

Thank you!

13 comments

  2. I literally said out loud to my buddies before the game that this year I am going to be a Stanley optimist. I failed.

    I am really baffled by Stan and Schenn. Schenn at least had a couple bright spots on the PK but fuck me that was bad.

    Really tired of watching Stanley use his massive wing span to keep his enormous body 6′ away from a guy on the boards.

  3. Dallas played a really good game for most of the night and the jets had stretches where they made mistakes. Helle didn’t look himself and the refs made a bad call or 2. Take away any one of those factors and the jets win the game

  4. I have always enjoyed reading these analyses/breakdowns. Do you have any data on the players/prospects during the preaseason games and who we should be keeping an eye out for, or who is doing well? We saw the jets elevate lambert and chibrikov and demoted Heinola and Gus Bus. I wanted to follow up on more moose players this season. Thus, I want to hear your thoughts on the players you believe we should keep an eye on.

  5. I saw your post and it’s amazing how awful our third pairing is. I gave my ticket to my son, so I didn’t watch it in person, but seeing your analysis….. yikes.

  6. Will be hard to win games with three 7th dmen in the lineup and still no Miller. Sheltering one pair is possible but taxing, trying to shelter two pairs just doesn’t work.

  7. Has anyone ever seen anything that compares xGF to actual GF im curious as to how accurate of a measure it actually is

    Also if there are players who are consistently outliers on the scale because the advanced stats cant account for something in their game.

  8. Lots of ink has been spilled about Hellebuyck in the playoffs but I’ve been banging the drum all summer that the real problem was that the 3rd pair lived in their own end on the road.

    The Blues and Stars weaponized the last change and caved in our 3rd pair when we were on the road. It’s hard to generate secondary offence when 1/4 of the 5v5 time is the third pair getting stuck in their own end. If the Jets go 50/50 Corsi (or xG%) on that third pair, they probably net out an extra 3-4 goals on the road which would probably have ended the St Louis series sooner and would have probably stole a win in Dallas as well.

    The Jets need to cut bait on a couple of guys and bring in a real answer at #3LD. I’ve been banging the drum for a while that if we brought in Oleksiak (who put up solid 2nd pair numbers on a bad Seattle team last year), he would check the ‘size’ box for the Jets then you could put Miller out there with him and we’d be *way* better. Or, better yet: you get Salomonsson out with Morrissey and get Demelo out against weaker comp on the 3rd pair so he can get back to doing what he does well.

  10. For the most part I agree and interesting data for sure.

    But I went back and watched the goals when Fleury was on the ice. I am one of those fans who think Fleury gets too much flack. He has some untapped offensive upside and it’s clear the coaches are encouraging him to skate with it.

    The Raantenen goal Fleury checked his man behind the net and his stick broke. Goes to pick it up, but then scrambles in front where Pionk has a man covered. Pionk doesn’t trade off and leaves Raantenen wide open in front of the net. Kind of all around disorganized play because of the stick issue but shitty luck overall.

    On the Lundqvist goal, Parker Ford was out of position leaving his man wide open in the slot. Fleury was in front and moving towards his man which was the right play. Not remotely his fault.

    On the Seguin goal, Jets suddenly turn it over and Fleury was caught up the ice. Hustles back nicely but overpursued as Duchene does spin around and Fleury flies by. Duchene now open feeds a wide open Seguin in the slot. Kyle Connor was doing a lazy back check and gave up pursuit leaving the easy tap in for Seguin. Fleury was partly at fault here for sure but the bigger crime was KC not picking up his back check coasting in from the blue line. Coaches will notice who played with effort and who didn’t.

    Johnston goal: Vilardi loses his man with the puck allowing a pass back to the open D. Fleury was in the slot tailing Johnston but too far back. Puck passes to Johnston who spins and shoots a screened Helly. Pionk loses body position on Seguin and it actually deflects off Pionk and in. Fleury definitely fucked up allowing Johnston too much space in the slot. But Vilardi and Pionk also contributed to the breakdown.

    I am not going to argue that Fleury played great defensive hockey. But he is not near of a concern compared to Schenn and Stanley and I believe him and Pionk will be fine. If anything I was more concerned with Pionks play on those goals more than Fleury.

  11. Good analysis, as usual.

    Jets are without 3 of their top skaters at the moment. Plus, lots of new faces, needing time to gel. It’s only the first game of the game of the season, after all. I’m willing to give them a bit of a pass. For now.

    Although playing Schenn and Stanley over Miller is inexcusable.

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