As we all know, there is no bigger question facing the future of this team than what to do with the best pitcher in baseball entering the prime of his career, with only one year remaining under team control and an agent that is notorious for pushing all of his clients to enter free agency.
Not only is it a question involving speculation about this player's future, but what the team chooses to do with him will act as a barometer, of sorts, for what ownership feels about the current and future direction of the team. As far as I can tell, here are the positives and negatives about each option they have:
- They hold onto him for the year and try to make one more run at a World Series with him, and let him go next offseason with the likely expectations that the Yankees or Dodgers will outbid Detroit. The upside is obviously that they have him for another year, can pitch him into the ground in the postseason, and then spend their time and resources on getting help at other places, knowing that he'll bridge them into their future.
- Give in to Boras' demands and throw a record-setting, headline-grabbing, potential albatross of a contract at him while they still have exclusive negotiating rights. It would probably take something like 10 years, $500 million to get him to sign before free agency. The upside, of course, is that they'd lock in an elite, HoF-level pitcher long enough for him to retire a Tiger, but the downside is that it will likely be a Cabrera-esque albatross of a contract on the back end, especially if the league implements a salary cap over the next decade, like most owners seem to want to do. (It's also a lot easier for me to sit here and tell someone else to spend an exorbitant amount of money.)
- They cut their losses and look to trade him and his single season of team control for a top-notch prospects. There's no way that this benefits the team in the short-run, so it would essentially be seen by the players as an indication that they don't see next year as a contending year. The upside is that if they don't believe they can outbid other teams for him, then this is definitely the more prudent choice in the long-term, almost assuredly returning a player or two that would help form the core of their future team.
What do you think they're going to do, and what would you do if you were Illitch?
33 comments
They’ll keep him next year and just kick the can down the road. Probably will get outbid and will let him walk
I think trading him would be best thing for this team long term as much as it pains me to say it
Option 2 isn’t going to happen. Not because the Tigers can’t/won’t make the offer, but even if they did offer your 10-year $500 million, it would thrill Boras because he will tell Skubal that means that the Dodgers/Mets will have to come up with an even bigger offer. And they will. There literally isn’t an offer the Tigers could put on the table that would lure Skubal to take it and not go into free agency. He has no incentive to.
It seems most likely they’ll go with option 1. They make a WS run with him on the team and receive draft pick compensation if/when he signs elsewhere. They can still make him an offer in free agency, but again, it seems unlikely they can/will outbid the top offers from bigger market teams (where he can also make more money in endorsement deals playing in NY or LA).
It’s just the unfortunate reality of baseball economics right now.
He is at his peak now and can’t give more than 100 pitches in the biggest game of the year. Not worth 50 mil/year if he can’t do that. Trade him now so you don’t lose him for nothing next offseason.
You make every attempt to resign him. Even though you know, as everyone else does, he wants to hit free agency and cash in
You also acknowledge that if you do resign him, the likelihood of his contract being an albatross is high. Meaning ownership/management is damned if you do, damned if you don’t by fans.
Fans will complain about you being too cheap to resign Skubal. Fans will also complain about you sinking your franchise by giving so much to a player in his declining years.
This is 97.1 The Ticket
He’s gone at the deadline knowing ownership
Trade him.
He’s worth 6 WAR to us, NYM, NYY, PHI will all over pay for that.
Option 1 is most probable.
Option 2 is least probable.
Option 3 is the BEST move for the team long-term [assuming option 1 doesn’t end in a WS title next year]
After next year their is going to be a major huge lockout that nobody is looking at. Maybe an entire canceled season. Owners want a cap and players are saying no way. This is going to change things in major ways. Enjoy next year regardless of what moves get made.
Chris Illitch is a cheapskate and will never, ever pony up the money to keep him. Or win a World Series. Or a Stanley Cup. Or to finish District Detroit.
They should trade him but they will probably keep him and try and “compete” in Scott Harris terms next year with them and lose him for nothing after another 85 win season barely making playoffs and losing in first or second round. Scott refused to do anything that isn’t a short term or around the margains move, terrified of making a big move…so odd. I think people forget what the plan was coming into the year. Trey Sweeney was the likely SS, as everyone basically gave up on Baez. Jace Jung was going to be the 3b, Tork wasn’t even going to make the team. Scott got super bailed out with a career Zmac year, a Tork renaissance no one saw coming and Baez showing a pulse. This year could have easily been a complete disaster
Not to be doom and gloom, but whatever decision they make I’m sure will be the wrong one
He gone
I want them to sign Skubal to the albatross contract. I’m ok with that. He is such a dude it’s worth it to me (emotionally at least)
I recognize it’s unlikely to be the most efficient use of resources. Superstars are always a suboptimal $/WAR or whatever because more war costs more.
I really don’t like the other 2 options though I think 1 is most likely and option 3 is far less likely, though more likely than option 2.
If Harris was able to make a Soto for Wood/Gore/Abrams sort of deal I would understand and not be mad, but id be super sad.
You don’t get many opportunities to have THE BEST on your team in Detroit.
Keep him at all costs. I’d stomach trading him for high end prospects, but the better be major league ready
No matter what Tiger fans want or think should, can or will happen, Skubal would be an idiot not to go into free agency
He’s literally the only guy on the team id wanna keep and we can’t resign him 💔
The only reason Cabrera’s contract was an albatross is because we’re unwilling to spend the money required to be a serious baseball team.
The last few years of Cabrera we were in the bottom 1/3 of the league in payroll. Cabrera’s contract wasnt preventing us from spending enough to even get to the league average.
Option 3 for sure
Proper resource management is option number 3, similar to the Brewers with Corbin Burnes, and the Nats with Soto. Probably get a return somewhere in between those. Hopefully an arm that can help now, and a couple of good prospects near the majors. Prefer to send him to the National League, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies or Padres. But really taking the best deal.
I would love to have him in Detroit forever. If he’s given any indication he wants the same, I’d go to all lengths to make that happen. Doesn’t seem like that’s his attitude though.
If i was illitch id let him go in free agency because im a cheap ass.
If I was a decent owner I’d have my GM trade him so we atleast get some compensation
If I cared about winning, I’d pay arguably the greatest pitcher in the city’s history and get him some help
They haven’t done option 1 yet. I dont think they will next year either.
I would be fine with trading him with an eye to return to postseason contention in 2027.
I love watching Skubal pitch; his kit is as good as anyone I’ve ever seen. I think he’s staying for one more year. Trading him would be a smart option *if* there were anyone offering an outrageous prospect haul, but I don’t know if anyone will. Plus, I legitimately think that if they can stay healthy and find one or two elite bats, they have every chance to make it to the WS next year.
No brainer to trade him
He pitched twice in this series, both team loses despite his incredible performances. That’s all the proof you need. If you can’t win those then the whole team needs to be made better
Just don’t flub it last the JV trade
The biggest problem with this situation is that no matter who you trade him for, you aren’t replacing his caliber of talent in the roster. You might get high-end prospects, but prospects are a gamble whether they’ll actually pan out, and even if they do, it will more than likely not benefit the Tigers for several more years at least.
If you do decide to pay him, which with the cheapskate owner that we have is the most unlikely scenario, there are ways to structure the contract that it doesn’t end up being a terrible burden in the long term, but again that depends on the owner ponying up the bulk of the cash earlier in the deal.
But most of all being able to sign him no matter what the terms or money relies on Scott Harris doing something that so far he’s been unable to do in his tenure with the organization and that is ***negotiate***. He’s failed in every winter meeting, off-season free agency, and trade deadline to sign any player of any worth to anything more than a one year burner deal. Gleyber Torres is the prime example. A one year contract that is basically a stepping stone to him signing somewhere else for more money than what this cheap organization will pay for quality talent. Instead, he’s dependent on waiver wire acquisitions, broke down, past their prime old cast offs, and apparently, we’re running a rehab clinic here for players on the injured list when we get them.
I love the Tigers, but what I see is an organization that is never going to truly commit to winning under this ownership. By winning, I mean the World Series. They won’t commit because it costs too much. They’re content to let the best player in the league walk to another team that will put the money down for him and keep kicking the can down the road waiting for the next batch of up and comers to come up and hopefully win before they have to get serious about paying them too, then it’ll be on to the next batch. This is how you stay in a perpetual rebuild.
And before anyone starts thinking this is just me being negative about the Tigers, I’ll remind you that you can look over at the Red Wings and see the same patterns. This is an organizational philosophy for Ilitch owned teams. Do just enough not to be the toilet of the league, keep people filling the stadium and arena, buying the merch, paying for the parking, and eating their overpriced crappy pizza.
I hate to say it, but the teams and the respective organizations are going to keep following that pattern until the fans start demanding better. Why would they change if they know they can keep turning a profit with smoke and mirrors?
I choose to believe he’ll stay until my heart is inevitably ripped out.
FWIW, I do think this team seems to really like each other though, and that’s a bigger factor than you may think for some guys.
Maybe they pay him to avoid arbitration then trade him at the deadline to a contender
I’d trade him before the season starts if there’s a team willing to give you a haul. I would think that a team looking at signing him long term would like to get an extra season out of him.
Skubal isn’t entering the prime of his career. Statistically he’s likely exiting it. He will start his next extension at age 30.
You make your best offer this offseason and if he says no, you trade him. Pretty simple. Yeah, fans won’t be happy. But that’s a better end to his tenure than him immediately throwing on a BorasCorp hat after next season ends and losing him for nothing.
I’m also not making a guy who couldn’t throw more than 99 pitches in an elimination game the highest paid pitcher in baseball. Sorry. Let the Mets, Dodgers, or whoever else do that.
Why do think that What Ever this ownership choses will Fail?
The Yankees behave like a team that has finite resources. They went into the season with no 2B and blamed it on Stroman’s contract. The Mets are the team I think might write Skubal a blank check.