The 49ers WILL BEAT The Buccaneers Today If…

The 49ers WILL BEAT The Buccaneers Today If…

[Music] This is the San Francisco 49ers report. My name is Chase Senior and coming up, what a matchup we have on Sunday in week six, Niners, Buccaneers, and Tampa. I’m going to give you my keys to the game, top matchups to watch, what the Niners must do to win, and of course, my prediction for this ball game. Let’s first set the table by taking a look at how both these teams match up on the offensive and defensive sides of the football. On offense for the Buccaneers, led by Baker Mayfield, they’ve been a highly productive unit averaging 27 points per game. That ranks seventh in the NFL, 11th in yards per game at 353.8. They’re also 11th in yards per play and third down conversion rate at 5.6 yards and 41.5%. They have struggled a little bit turning drives into touchdown scoring drives when they get inside the red area. 25th in red zone touchdown percentage at 47%. Defensively, they are giving up 26.4 points per game. That ranks 23rd in the NFL. A lot of that is because of how frenetic these games have been. They’re 11th in yards per game, 15th in yards per play, 15th on third downs. Their red zone defense has also struggled. The opposition is scoring inside the 20 touchdowns 71.4%. Whereas the Niners in the red zone have a red zone touchdown scoring percentage of 42.1%. 28th in the NFL. They’re 22nd in points per game, but fifth in yards per game, only 17th in yards per play. Not a ton of explosives, especially on the ground. They have been good on third downs. 45.7%. That’s fifth on defense for the NerS, sixth in points per game. What a marvelous job Robert Solah’s unit has been doing. 15th in yards per game, 10th in yards per play, fifth in third down conversion rate, eighth inside the red zone. Both of those numbers so much better league ranking wise as compared to last year. And so my keys to the game here, can this banged up Ner’s defense slow down Baker Mayfield, especially late in GL games where he has been the ultimate clutch player? When it comes down to a two-minute drill, when things are moving quickly, I don’t think there’s been a better quarterback this year in crunchtime situations than Baker. And his numbers are terrific. I think he’s a bonafide MVP candidate. You take him away from Tampa Bay, they’re a bad ball club. He’s completing 65% of his throws, 10 touchdowns, one pick, a quarterback rating of 104.4. And you look at the Buccaneer schedule so far. What do you notice here? All of their wins have come in one score games. All of the games that they’ve played have been decided by one score or less. And there’s been a constant here. Baker Mayfield game-winning drive against the Falcons. Baker Mayfield go-ahead game-winning drive against the Texans. Baker Mayfield game-winning drive against the Jets. Baker Mayfield nearly a game-winning drive against the Eagles through a red zone pick. Baker Mayfield, you got the interception, but he also tied the game up at 35 and helped to win the game with some late game heroics. He’s been incredibly clutch and with the Niners lacking a pass rush, I’m just concerned that Baker’s going to have all day to throw. And if he does, he’s going to carve you up because that’s what he’s been doing the last two plus years, 2023, 2024 into this year. And when you blitz him, which is sometimes what Robert Salah needs to do because the front four can’t get home, he’s one of the best and most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL at beating the blitz. He was blitzed a league high rate last year and he completed more than 70% of his passes and he was terrific. Key to the game number two, every Buccaneers game has been crazy. Every Niners game has pretty much been crazy. I think the flow of this game could be fast. It could be frenetic. It could be a little bit crazy. And I think we’re going to be riding the seessaw here going back and forth between these two offenses. And because of that, Kyle Shanahan can’t be conservative. He needs to be aggressive. And he can’t do what he did against the Rams. Aggressive in the first half, conservative in the second half. I want to see Shanahan put his pedal to the floor throughout the entire duration of the game. This Bucks offense has been unrelenting, non-stop, and aggressive. Even if the Niners build a lead, it is not safe because of the quarterback that you are facing and going up against. and no lead has been maintained by the opposition going up against this Bucks team. And so even if the Niners go up seven 14, I want to see Kyle Shanahan continue to be aggressive. Go for it on fourth downs when you’re in an area on the field where it makes a lot of sense. Be aggressive with your play calling. And of course for San Francisco, you’re going up against a bad red zone defense in a game that I expect to be close highscoring. You got to be able to capitalize inside the red area. Another reason why I want to see the Niners as a team be aggressive, the oddsmakers are expecting this to be a high-scoring game. 47 a half is the overunder. Bucks minus three. So the odds makers are expecting this to be a 2522 type of ball game. I just don’t want to see Shanahan be conservative because if he does, I think that gives belief to Tampa Bay, gives them fuel and momentum. and we’ve seen that and capitalize on that this year. All right, from a matchup standpoint, I’m worried about D-winners in coverage. Last year, D-winners was really good in coverage, but Shawn McVey and Matthew Stafford found something on tape that they wanted to exploit and they wanted to specifically go after D-winners. They didn’t want to target Fred Warner. Nobody really does. So, they went after D-winners. and Dwinners against the Rams really really struggled and there are a couple of players who he might be matched up against throughout the course of the game. Kate Dottton I think has been a very underrated player for this Buccaneers team the last couple of years and he has been such a great security blanket for Baker Mayfield. They kind of know each other like the back of their own hands. 10 catches for 115 yards this year. Not gaudy numbers, but he’s really good and he could be matched up against Dwinners. Dwinners could also have to cover Anchuk a little bit. Now, without Mike Evans, he’s been playing more on the outside. But if he lines up in the slot, that’s a matchup that really favors Tampa Bay. And so, when you think about players going up against a player like this, I don’t want to see Dwinners going up against Igbuka. If Upton Stout plays, you worry about him holding up against Igbuka in a rookie on rookie matchup. If Chase Lucas has to play, I’d give the edge here to Igbuka. So, something to keep in mind here because winners against the Rams was not good. He was targeted 11 times. He gave up eight catches for 83 yards, two touchdowns, and a rating of 137.7. Another one from a matchup standpoint. This Niners’s interior offensive line has not been good this year. Jake Brendle is one of the worst starting centers in the game and he struggles to hold up against strong interior defensive linemen. Connor Colby has not been good at left guard. I never thought I’d be saying this, but San Francisco misses Ben Barge. Dominic Pun has not played well at the right guard spot. Well, who anchors the Buccaneers defensive line? Vea and Vtoa is an absolute load to have to deal with. And he’s one of the top interior defenders in the game. And at 346 pounds, he can move a mountain. He can disrupt and blow up plays. And I have no confidence in Connor KBY or Jake Brendle to hold up against Vea. And this can really impact what the Ners are trying to accomplish. Something that they’re trying to get going, which is running the ball. and they’ve been one of the worst running teams in the NFL all year long. Christian McCaffry’s numbers running wise, not good. Receiving wise, he’s been one of the best receiving producers across the NFL. But on the ground, 91 carries, 282 yards, 3.1 yards per carry. The Niners are the only team in the NFL going into week six that does not have a rushing touchdown. Going to be hard to run it against Vea. And this is big because if the Ner’s just get some type of balance going on offense, it will help them out tremendously. And I mean tremendously. But right now, they just can’t get that run game going. And it’s impacting them in between the 20s and in the 20 as well. And this Buccaneers defense really good against the run. That’s the VA effect. Teams are running it less than 42% of the time against Tampa Bay. 24.4 carries per game on average. That’s number 10. But they’re mustering only 3.8 yards per carry. That’s sixth best for any defense in the NFL. And opposing rushing yards per game, 92.4, eighth best in the National Football League. And then lastly, more quick hitters in the pass game. I really like what Kyle Shanahan and M. Jones specifically have done when they’ve worked with one another in the three starts that M. Jones has had where sometimes M. Jones by design will take the snap and you think it’s going to be a long developing play and instead throws the little pop pass. It catches the defense off guard. You’re able to pick up some quick and easy yards, but over time it’s able to negate and slow down the pass rush a little bit. And going back to point number four here, this Niners offensive line is not good. They can’t hold up in pass protection. They can’t run block. And against really good defensive lines and really good defenses, that’s when they also really struggle. And I’m going to explain reasons why the Niners need to protect solely in this game. But you look at M. Jones’s throwing chart against the Rams. What do you notice? I mean, there really aren’t any explosive throws downfield. A lot of the throws that he was making within 10 yards. And you do that, you keep M. Jones upright and clean. You limit the hits that he takes in the pocket and you’re able to slow down a defense that loves to pin its ears back. This Ner’s offense, you have to have answers against the blitz when you play against Todd Bulls. Tampa Bay blitzes about 40% of the time. That’s top five, top six across the NFL. Obviously, those numbers changing coming off of Monday Night Football, and those numbers are refreshing, but Todd Bols is always among the leaders as far as blitz percentages for his defense. This 49ers offensive line is not good. M. Jones is really banged up. If he can’t play in this game, I’m recording this on Tuesday, or if he does get hurt, it’s Adrien Martinez time, who’s a good athlete, but he always turns the ball over at the worst times. That happened at Kansas State. It happened at Nebraska. That’s what he was known for. And the Niners don’t stand a chance winning this game if they have to play Adrien Martinez against Tampa Bay. And so this Mack and Kyle quick game in the pass game has been nice. I want to see that continue. So with that predict the score, Ners Buccaneers, one of the marquee matchups here in week six. And you know what? I think this Niners team has something special brewing. And I think San Francisco, given their rest advantage, having the mini buy, hopefully they get some players back. They got some good mojo going, some confidence going. I think San Francisco wins this game in another close one. 26 to 24 is my final. [Music]

San Francisco 49ers news heading into the NFL week 6 schedule for 49ers vs. Buccaneers. As part of another 49ers vs. Buccaneers preview, Chase Senior outlines 49ers vs. Buccaneers keys to the game, matchups to watch and what the 49ers must do in order to take down Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield, led by Mac Jones and Kyle Shanahan.

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