Gunnar Henderson improved in other ways despite a power outage this season

Gunnar Henderson improved in other ways despite a power outage this season

In a very abnormal Orioles 2025 season, one thing that felt at least a little normal was Gunnar Henderson was the O’s best player. But where did his power go? We’ll talk about that in his season review coming up on this episode of the Locked on Orioles podcast. You are Locked on Orioles, your daily Baltimore Orioles podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hey there, Orioles fans. Today is Monday, October 13th, 2025, and welcome back in to the Locked Ono podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. As always, I’m your host, Connor Nukem, and coming up on today’s episode, we begin our 2025 Baltimore Orioles season review series for almost every single player currently on the Orioles 40man roster, and who made some sort of impact in the 2025 season. I’m going to give them a full episode as we run through the off seasonason, talk about what went right from their season, what went wrong, and then discuss their biggest storylines heading into the off season and into 2026. And today we begin with Gunnar Henderson, how he was still the Orioles most valuable player this season. His defense, his base running got better. He was still one of the best hitters on the team, but the power really dried up. And we’ll try and find out where that went as well. And that’s all coming up on this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast, which is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the FanDuel app today. So, we begin our season review series as we do every offseason. If you’ve been familiar with this show and have been following along with Lockdown Orioles for a while, thank you so much if that’s the case. If this is your first off season here with Lockdown Orioles, we are still five episodes a week at least through no ne November. We go down to three episodes a week between December and spring training beginning in midFebruary and then back to five. So even though there’s not games going on, plenty of content right here on the podcast, right here on the Lockdown Orioles YouTube channel. So make sure you stay tuned in. As I mentioned, we do the season review series. We talk about basically everything from each player season. And this year we’re going in a specific order. We’re basically going to go from top to bottom in terms of fan graphs war acred by each of these Orioles players. So it’ll give you a little better look of now not every single day for the next, you know, five, six weeks is going to be an Orioles season review. We’ll hopefully have some news and some notes and a managerial hiring to cover over the next couple of weeks where we’ll pop in and out with those kind of things. Get you ready for spring training starting in November as well. Spring training, free agency, I mean starting in November as well. But we’re going to go in descending order of Fan Graphs War this season. And that begins with Gunnar Henderson, the 24year-old Orioles shortstop former second round pick in 2019 out of high school who debuted in September or at least late in the 2022 season and since then a little bit of a rough patch the beginning of the 2023 year, but after that has been truly the best player on this Baltimore Orioles team in that stretch. And this year he played 154 games at age 24, 651 plate appearances. Gunner hit .274 with a 349 on base and a 438 slugging, a 9.5% walk rate. Little down from last year, but a 21% strikeout rate was also down. He hit 17 home runs, which is one of the big story lines, down from 37 of them in 2024. 68 RBI’s, a career-high 30 stolen bases in 35 attempts, and that all added up to a 120 WRC plus for Gunner on the season. Of course, an all-encompassing stat with 100 being league average. It was definitely down this year offensively, just 20% better than a league average hitter for Gunnar Henderson. And all in all, that was worth 4.8 eight fan graphs were leading the Orioles his second best season just barely topping what he did in 2023. So let’s begin with Gunnar Henderson. What went right for him this season? And we start with the fact that Gunnar continued to hit the ball hard and generally continued to pretty consistently produce at the plate. Ended this year with a 49.2% hard hit rate, which was in the 84th percentile in Major League Baseball. had 91st percentile bat speed and generally was the most consistent, productive hitter on the team. He struggled in April, which we’ll get to, but he got to May, he looked fully healthy, and he turned things on. Had a 127 WRC plus in May, a 152 in June, and a 145 in July. In those three months, he looked like the, you know, close to MVP level Gunner Henderson that we saw in 2024. and and really it it felt like after that slow start, he was maybe the Orioles only reliable and healthy hitter for most of the season. Now, if you’re going to guess one guy to fall into that category, it’s going to be Gunnar Henderson coming into the season. And while he didn’t fully deliver on what we asked for, he was still a good baseball player this year. And he lowered a strikeout rate a bit, which helps when you keep making hard contact and and makes you a better hitter. Now, he also just continued to feast against right-handed pitching and feast on fast balls. He had a 143 WRC plus against righties. And he hit .326 with a 508 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers fast balls. Whether they were sinkers or four seamers, he was mashing fast balls. Hit 307 overall against fast balls this year, which continues what he’s done well throughout his career. And again, even though he was down to the 12 WRC plus, I think we would all agree he was still for most, if not all the season the most feared hitter in the Orioles lineup. And that’s kind of the way it should be with the talent level Gunnar is at now. Outside of offense, I thought the biggest improvements that Gunnar Henderson made in 2025 was in base running and in defense. He once again was one of the best base runners in Major League Baseball. And he got even better. Statcast has a base running value metric. Gunnar Henderson plus seven this season, tied for fourth in Major League Baseball. basically showing that he created seven more runs with his base running than the average runner. That tied him with Chandler Simpson, Bobby Wit Jr., and Trey Turner. Basically, three of the five fastest runners in the majors. Now, Gunner’s fast. He does not have the same elite sprint speed that those three guys do, but he still made up the same amount of value, same amount of plus value on the bases. He was ranked in the top 10 in taking extra bases, whether that be on his own hits or while he’s already on base. this season via Statcast. And he also just stole more bases. Now, this has opened up the past couple of years because of the new rules with the pickoff limits and the the bigger bases and the pitch clock helping out, but Gunnar Henderson stole a career-high 30 bases on 35 attempts. Not only was it 30 steals, but he was efficient. He rarely got caught. Had a long streak of not getting caught for a while until he did uh in late September after he got to 30. He was it was similar in 2024. He was 21 for 25 that season, but in even fewer at bats, fewer play appearances this year. He got on base a little bit less and yet he stole more bases. He was definitely more aggressive using his not just his speed, but as we’ve seen from Josh Naylor this season, it is honestly more important to be a good base runner rather than just pure speed to be able to swipe bags. And that is what Gunnar did. And you also have to figure, you know, some of him getting more aggressive later in the year was when the Orioles made the switch, fired Brandon Hyde, Tony Manelino took over in May. It was a teamwide approach. The Orioles got more aggressive on the base paths under Tony Manelino. It’s probably the biggest difference you saw in the team when the Orioles made the managerial change and that happened for Gunnar as well. But also, you got to think with the really slow start he got off to. And then his power never really coming around, he still was hitting singles. He still was walking. He was still getting himself to first base, just not as often getting himself beyond first base. Must have been thinking, “Hey, I used to get myself into scoring position with doubles and triples. It’s more singles this year. I still got to get myself to second base because of the struggles of the Orioles offense.” And he found a way to do that anyway, utilizing the stolen base. We’ll talk about his power outage. There’s going to be a 30-30 season in here at some point for Gunnar Henderson. I think he showed the speed element of it this year. And then I thought he got better at shortstop, too. I I think there was, you know, a tough start to the season, but he finished at a negative run fielding runs value via Statcast. He was negative -2 in 2024. So, although he was still slightly below league average, he took a step forward at shortstop. I don’t think anyone thinks Gunnar Henderson is going to play shorts stop for 15 years in the major leagues, but he definitely, you look at his metrics, got better month by month as this season went on. He was a strong plus shortstop in the final few months uh via the fielding run value. He’s not going to win a gold glove there, but I feel good about Gunnar at shortstop moving forward. I think eventually once he gets older into his, you know, next free agent contract, he probably moves over to third base, and we’ve seen him play third base early in his career. He was a really good third baseman as well. He can certainly do that, but I think there were a few questions coming out of last year. Is this is this even a a short term, you know, next three to four years shortstop. I think he quieted some of those questions in 2025. He got a lot better on coming in on balls. That was kind of the biggest improvement he made defensively. And I think, you know, he’s going to he’s going to be the opening day shortstop, barring any injury in 2026. And I feel good about that being his position at the very least for the remainder of his contract with the Orioles. Once he hits free agency, we’ll see if he signs back here, signs elsewhere, and kind of where his positioning falls into place then. But those were the goods for Gunnar Henderson. And he had a good season, right? He was almost a five- war player. He was the world’s best position player on a in a disappointing campaign, but there were not all positives for Gunnar Henderson this year. It was not the same productive player offensively that we saw be an MVP candidate in 2024. And a lot of that was because the power was not gone, but it was it was lost for a while. We’ll try to dive into what happened to all the home runs for Gunnar Henderson. That is coming up next. But first, this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Now look, the NFL season is here and FanDuel has an offer you don’t want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That’s right. Just pick a bet, put down five bucks, and if it hits, you’ll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. And FanDuel is great. It gives you so many ways to play. You can build parlays, player props, even follow the lines during live games. and makes watching football even more exciting when you’ve got a little something riding on the action. So whether you’re a casual fan or love diving into the stats, FanDuel makes the game day experience so much better. So what are you waiting for? Visit fanuel.com to download the FanDuel app today and get started. So for Gunnar Henderson, it was a good but I think still somewhat disappointing season because when you compare what he did this year, which was still a good year, five win season, good hitter, better base runner, better fielder, but at the end of the day, he was an eight more player last year. He had a 154 WRC plus. He hit 37 home runs. He was a legitimate, you know, behind the awesome race of Aaron Judge and Bobby Wood Jr., he was a legitimate MVP candidate and a a serious top five finisher in the AL MVP last year. And that’s that’s just not where Gunnar Henderson is going to fall in that voting this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if nobody even puts Gunnar on the top 10 on the ballots that they get. I mean, it’s possible he’ll jump in at ninth or tth on a few ballots this year, but it’s not going to be anything higher than that. He was just not as impactful of a player, and it’s kind of the way the season went for for all of the Orioles in 2025. one of the reasons they won only 75 games and Gunnar was still the catalyst for a lot of winning, but he was also not the same player. And I think the first part we have to go on what went wrong for Gunnar Henderson this year is that the power just wasn’t there. Again, he fell from 37 home runs last year to 17 home runs this year. And yes, it was in a little bit fewer playing time. He had 70 fewer played appearances this year. So, you would expect the home run total to go down by a little bit, but not by more than half. And you know, his slugging dropped from 529 last year to 438 this year. And it wasn’t bad luck. It wasn’t like he was crushing balls and they were getting caught at the track or diving plays were made. Like, no, no, no. The expected slugging via Stackcast this year was 433. So, he’s basically right on what he was expected to do based on his batted ball data. And really, the big thing is his drop in barrel rate. He went from an 11.2% 2% barrel rate last year to an 8.5 this year. An 8.5 is not terrible, but it’s not great, especially for a guy who showed himself as a power hitter. And barrels are calculated kind of balls hit off the bat at the ideal exit velocity and launch angle. They generally lead to extra base hits. And a lot of home runs, actually most home runs that are hit are barrels. When your barrel rate goes down by almost 3%, your home runs are going to go down. He his sweet spot percentage was down by 5%. He wasn’t contacting the ball off the bat in that perfect spot as much. He was hitting more line drives. He was pulling more balls in the air. Those two things are good when you’re chasing extra base hits and home runs. But something was just off for Gunnar Henderson. I mean, he homered at Yankee Stadium on the the final day of the regular season to give him his 17th homer to tied him for the team lead. that snapped a career-long streak of 30 games without a homer when he homered in that final game. I mean, it was unbelievable. I mean, even when he had the 16 homers leading in, he had sprinkled them throughout the season where you didn’t feel like there was this giant drought, but then he went over an entire month without homering until that final day. And that was the craziest part because again, you feel like some of the power issues early in the season had to do with the injury, but this was late in the year. And maybe it’s a little fatigue, but he just he didn’t hit for power at all there late. And you know, you hope some of the issues were again lingering from that early injury. He had a right intercostal strain in February. That’s kind of a a core injury, you know, oblique area and and missed most of spring training. Started the season on the injured list. Missed a a week or so before he was activated in early April. So didn’t play a full season. one of the many Orioles that spent some time on the IIL this year, but it basically seemed like because that injury was in February and he barely got into any spring training games, it seemed like all of the month of April was his spring training and that and kind it kind of makes sense when you don’t get that game action in spring training. That’s what April is going to be for. Like he he didn’t go on a rehab appearance or anything like that. He was just activated to the roster and you know 85 or 85 WRC plus 28% strikeout rate a super high for Gunner 51% ground ball rate in April. That was by far his worst offensive month of the year and he turns it around he has a great May and a great June and a great July and he looks healthy. So you would understand the power outage early which did happen because it can be tough to rotate and get to the balls you need to when you have those kind of core injuries. But then it just kind of continued throughout the season. So you started to worry, okay, what’s going on? I would say the biggest issue in performance was what he did against breaking balls this year. In 2024, Gunnar Henderson hit most of his home runs against breaking balls. Whether it was righties or lefties throwing them, especially against righties, he crushed them. Gunnar had a 708 slugging with a 607 expected slugging against breaking balls in 2024. That is an absurd number against, you know, sliders and curve balls from righties and lefties. In 2025, it dropped to a 413 slugging against breaking balls. And while that’s not like the worst number you’ve seen in the world, it’s pretty bad. He’s not hitting the balls into the gaps and over the fence when he got anything that wasn’t a fast ball. And he was still crushing fast balls, which allowed him to be a good hitter this season. But the breaking balls got him. Like if you were a righty last year, you never threw a slider or a curveball as a righty to Gunnar Henderson because you knew you were going to be in danger if you threw it basically anywhere in the strike zone. That was not the case this season. He just struggled on those pitches, whether it was timing, whether it was swing path. We’ll get into that stuff a little bit, but and a lot of the issues did come against lefties, right? Yes, it was not being as good against those righty sliders, but in general, the lefty sweeping those breaking balls away from him, he was able to stay on those pitches last year. He would lay off the ones that swept out of the zone. He’d be on top of those hangers and he would crush them into right field for doubles and home runs. Just didn’t happen this year. He hit 160 with a 280 slugging and a 37% swing and miss rate against breaking balls from left-handers this year. I mean, if you were a lefty and you threw a breaking ball, you could fairly easily get Gunnar Henderson out this year. And that is not the way that it should be because last year 268 average, 577 slugging on those breaking balls. And and even when he made contact with the breaking balls this year, right, he was swinging and missing at them more. But it’s not like, oh, but when he still made contact, he was crushing them. No, no, no. 49% hard hit rate against lefty breakers last year, down to 31% this year. That is a huge fall. So, we’ll see. You know, he when he was early in his career, he was a splits guy. You know, 2022, 2023, he was worlds better against righties than he was against lefties. Then in 2024, he had a 137 WRC plus against lefties. That’s what elevated him to MVP conversation status last year. And that fell off again. He had just a 71 WRC plus against left-handed pitching this season. That is 29% worse than league average. And he had a it wasn’t like more strikeouts. He had a very similar strikeout rate against lefties this year than he had last year’s. It was just bad pitch recognition, bad timing, not making big hard contact when he was making contact with the lefties. It was it was not a good year against Southpaws. And he faced a ton of lefties as well. That was the other thing, especially early in the season. Gunnar Henderson faced a whole lot of left-handers. It’s hard to face as many lefties as Gunnar did. There’s just way more right-handed pitchers than there are left-handed pitchers in baseball. Now, by the end of the season, his number of plate appearances against lefties was essentially equal to what it was in 2024, but early on, the O’s faced a lot of left-handed pitchers. Gunner was facing some of the best lefties. And the other thing is, you know, you you didn’t have a lot of protection for him this year because the Orioles offense was struggling and it was so injured. I think the goal coming into this season was that the O’s would have some sort of protection involving Jordan Westber, Adley Rutman, and Tyler O’Neal kind of surrounding Gunner in the lineup. And if you can surround Gunnar in the lineup with those three guys, not only are they are all good hitters when they’re healthy, but they all hit left-handed pitching really, really well. So, I think the goal would have been you have a situation where, you know, Westber’s hitting second, Gunner third, Adley fourth, and O’Neal fifth. And if they’re all going, you can’t throw a lefty in that situation because even if you feel like the lefty can get gunner, you do not want a left-handed reliever than facing Adley and O’Neal after that. Those two guys crush lefties when they’re healthy. And so it would force you as another team to throw a righty in there because it gives you a much better chance against O’Neal and Adley and Westber. And then you just have to deal with it with Gunnar Henderson. And you then you let Gunner feast. But because those guys weren’t healthy and even when they were, they weren’t producing to the level they should be, teams felt more comfortable and they can, you know, with Holiday at the top of the lineup, you could throw a lefty there to get him. And teams just felt a lot more comfort with those lefty relievers coming in and getting to face Gunner and then the fact that he struggled against him, too. It was just not the plan for this oral season. And some of the issues, too, were swing decisions. Now, how much of that is Gunner’s eye changing versus how much of that is Gunnar trying to press? because there were times this season where it felt like especially after the deadline and once you you traded O’Harn and Lauriano who were producing for the Orioles, Gunnar felt like he was the only healthy hitter in this lineup who was really producing for long stretches of this season and he may have been pressing a little bit. His chase rate, you know, the percentage of pitches he swinging at outside of the zone jumped from 23% last year to 28% this year. Also made less contact when he chased out of the zone. But there was, I think, issues still with pitch recognition because his meatball swing percentage, which is meatball is like a pitch right down the middle. His he saw more meatball pitches this year, but swung at them at a lower rate. When you are Gunnar Henderson and you’re the best hitter in the lineup and you don’t have protection, so you’re getting less and less strikes as the season goes on. You got to capitalize on those pitches that come down the middle. And he wasn’t doing that either. So, you hope some of this is the injury. You hope some of this is the lack of protection because of the other injuries. Those are things that should be easier to be fixed next year. But you also worry a little bit about the general production, especially the big- time struggles again against lefties. With all that being said though, Gunnar is still the best player on this Orioles team. Full stop. So, what does that mean for his 2026 season? Talk about that to finish off the show coming up next. But first, this episode of the Lockdown Orioles podcast is also brought to you by Monarch Money. Most people can’t name all of their financial accounts or even what they’re worth, whether it’s 401ks, properties, or investments. And when you don’t have the full picture, you can end up leaving money on the table. That’s why there’s Monarch Money. It’s an all-in-one personal finance tool that brings your entire financial life together in one clean, easy to use interface on your laptop or your phone. Monarch is built for people with busy lives. If you put put off organizing your finances, Monarch is for you. Monarch does the heavy lifting for you. You can link all your accounts in minutes, see clear data visuals, get smart categorization of your spending, and finally feel in control of your money without ever touching a spreadsheet. And the best part is for me, you know, handling finances and money with a partner, you can maximize your investments, increase your savings rate, and easily review finances with your partner, keeping a clear view of your financial health week to week and long term. So don’t let financial opportunity slip through the cracks. Use code locked on MLB at monarchmoney.com in your browser for half off your first year. That’s 50% off your first year at monarchmoney.com with code locked on MLB. So, after a productive but still somewhat disappointing 2025 season for Gunnar Henderson, we finish off with what are his biggest storylines heading into the off season and heading into 2026. Now, there’s not much for the offseason for Gunnar Henderson. He does hit arbitration for the first time this offseason, so he’s looking at a nice little raise. it’s going to be, you know, making5 6 million instead of the chump change he was making before. He’s not a free agent till after 2028. So, the Orioles have at least three more seasons with Gunnar Henderson before they’d have to really give him the big raise. That’s not as much of what his specific story lines are this offseason. It’s more about going into next year. And the big question is what we just talked about. Will Gunnar be able to find the power again? I’m not sure we need Gunnar Henderson to hit 37 home runs every season. It’d be great because there was kind of a full teamwide power outage at times this year. Again, the 17 homers he hit, not only was it much lower, it tied for the team lead with 17 homers. You can’t be a good team and not have anyone hit 20 bombs in today’s Major League Baseball. That’s just the reality of the situation. He was still a five- win player with 17 homers. I’m not sure he needs to hit 37, especially with the better defense and the better base running that we saw. But if he could push himself toward a 25 homer, 25 steel season every year, he is back to MVP level. And it really does seem like everything was pretty similar under the hood for Gunnar except for the bat speed and the attack angle. His bat speed was down one mile per hour. Now, it was still elite bat speed even being down. So, I don’t think that’s a a huge huge issue. It does lead to maybe a little less power. You’re just swinging the bat not as hard. You’re not going to hit the ball as hard. I think the other thing to look at was that attack angle. It’s kind of some new numbers we got, I believe, last year at Stackcast. looking at the angle of the bat when you swing and contact the baseball. Uh, essentially to to boil it down, Henderson’s bat path was two degrees flatter this season had kind of more of a flatter swing instead of that kind of uppercut swing. That again, every single swing has at least a general uppercut. You can’t hit the baseball and put it in play without at least a general uppercut to meet the plane of the pitch, which is generally unless you’re facing Tyler Rogers coming downward at you. But guys have different planes of swings. The average attack angle in Major League Baseball is around 31 or 32 degrees. Gunner was around that last year and then he was down to about 29 degrees this year. And that’s something also when you have a flatter bat path is just going to lead to less home runs. You’re going to contact less balls perfectly with that perfect launch angle and hit them out of the ballpark. Now, when you’re a good hitter, could mean more singles and more doubles and you’re still going to be productive. and Gunner was certainly still productive, but slower bat speed and lower attack angle are things that are going to lead to fewer home runs. So, the big overarching question for those things is he can still be an MVP level hitter with that data versus last year’s data. But the question is, are those changes that were on purpose? Were those changes on accident just because something started happening with his swing? Or are those changes that were caused by that early season core injury? Any of those three could be possible. We just don’t know the answer. to it. But the answer I do know is that when you do have those intercostal, those oblique, those core issues, they make it hard to swing, they make it hard to swing with high bat speed. And there’s some indication, not a lot of hard data, but some talk that players with higher bat speed may be statistically at higher risk for those kind of core issues because you’re using so much of those muscles to swing the bat so hard. So, is this something that will happen to Gunnar? Because remember, he had a much lighter version of that injury in 2024 spring training. He only missed a few weeks. He was ready for opening day and he had an MVP type season. So, it’s not like it really impacted him at all, but it was something that shut him down for a couple weeks in Sarasota in 2024. And they just he got a more serious version of it in 2025 that caused him to miss all of spring and a little bit of the regular season as well. So, which which is the cause and the effect on that? Is it the injuries to the lowered production and bat speed, or is it the the high bat speed causing those injuries? Is it some sort of circle he’s going to get into? These are all things that we’re going to have to find out. But those core injuries, it makes it hard to rotate. It makes it hard to swing the bat hard. It makes hard to get that ideal attack angle. It might slow you down. It might flatten your bat path a little bit, lead to more ground balls, lead to less hard contact. Those are not good things to have as a hitter. you want to be operating at your top speed and that’s what we saw from Gunnar last year and it’s just not what we saw from Gunnar this year. And then really the final question for Gunnar is not really about him, but can the Orioles get him some help? Whether it is guys like Rutman and Westber and Tyler O’Neal and Colton Cowser and Jackson Holiday staying healthy and being more productive or whether it is the Orioles going out and adding more than just bench bats, adding a true middle of the order bat in free agency or trade this off seasonason to get him some of that more right-handed protection that they thought they would have coming into this year. They’re going to need to do it whether it is guys getting better and healthy that are on the team or adding from the outside. They’re just going to need if they don’t have more protection for Gunner next year, this lineup’s going to be bad again. So that’s not really on Gunner. It’s more just outside of how the Orioles construct the lineup around him. But at the end of the day, even with I guess I don’t know, would you call it a quote unquote down season for Gunnar, I mean, if a down season is a a five war season with a 120 WRC plus, I think you got a really special player there. And still at only 24 years old, won’t be 25 until the middle of next season, the Orioles truly have a special special player. I think that power is going to come up a little bit. will see Gunnar Henderson back to the usual MVP form in 2026. But that’ll do it for today’s episode. Thank you so so much for tuning in as we begin our player season review series. Coming up tomorrow, we continue to go down the list of fan graphs were one of the most amazing turnaround pitching seasons we’ve seen. A dive into how Trevor Rogers went from failed trade to one of the best starters in baseball. That’s coming up on tomorrow’s episode. But until then, I’m Connor Nukem and this has been the Lockdown Orioles podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Gunnar Henderson’s home run total fell from 37 in 2024 to just 17 this year. However, he still improved in other ways. Host Connor Newcomb reviews Henderson’s 2025 season for the Baltimore Orioles and discusses his early injury, baserunning prowess, and long home run drought.

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