Bills vs Falcons Week 6 | Gruden’s Preview

Bills vs Falcons Week 6 | Gruden’s Preview

Okay, Monday Night Football. It’s the 4-1 Buffalo Bills coming off a tough home loss, going on the road to play the two-2 Falcons who are coming off a buy and a very big win against the Washington Commanders. Atlanta will be rocking Monday night. I can’t wait for this one. This top of mind is brought to you by Chevrolet. Football season is here and whether you’re grinding through the week or gearing up for kickoff, there’s one ride that’s always game ready. The Chevy Silverado. Built for the hustle, ready for the game. Silverado is America’s most dependable full-size truck. Head to chevy.com to learn more and build your own Chevy Silverado. [Music] Okay, Monday night, the Buffalo Bills 4 in1 coming to Atlanta. Atlanta hasn’t had a home Monday night football game in a little while. So, I can’t wait to see the city of Atlanta come together behind their young quarterback Mike Pennix. Head coach Shawn McDermott versus the Falcons Raheem Morris. Two defensive head coaches. They’ll go head-to-head in a critical battle. Both teams need to win. This is not a common matchup. These two teams have only met 13 times. The Falcons have won seven of those and they haven’t met since 2021 when Atlanta went to Buffalo froze their ass off on a snowy field. Bills won 2915. Josh Allen had two rushing touchdowns. This is the first Monday night home game the Atlanta Falcons have had since 2018. They did go 2-0 last year on Monday Night Football on the road. They went to Philly early in the season and won and they went to Las Vegas and beat my Raiders late in the season. But the city of Atlanta, I think, will come out in force for this game on Monday night. I can’t wait to see it. Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills is 27 and 10 in his career against teams from the NFC. That’s pretty damn good. So, you better watch out Atlanta, the Bills and the Falcons. Not to be negative, but this is two of the seven teams that have never won a Super Bowl. I mean, when you think about that, the Bills, the Falcons, Jake’s Chargers, the Browns, the Cardinals, they haven’t won a Super Bowl. Either have the Titans or the Lions. So, these two teams, they got to do something about it. Why not this year, man? Let’s go. Let’s freaking go. This is prove it week for both of these teams. You know, the Buffalo Bills, they’re a regular playoff participant. Every year they seem to win the AFC East. They’ve won it five years in a row. They’re in the playoffs. They’re going to go to the Super Bowl until something bad happens. But every year they’re in the money. And they got to prove to all of us that last week was a bump in the road. They didn’t play well against New England at home. They had three turnovers. It was one of the sloppiest games in the Shawn McDermott era. 11 penalties, three turnovers, you end your 14game home winning streak. It was a tough one, man. The New England Patriots, your arch rivals, come to your house and win. And the Atlanta Falcons, they got to prove that their win two weeks ago before this buy against the Washington Commanders is the real Atlanta Falcons. I mean, they came out humming. 34 to27 victory. Mike Pennix, secondyear quarterback, looked great. They got a lot of receivers involved. And the Falcons have the number one ranked defense in the NFL. Believe it. They got to prove this is who they are, not the team they showed the week before when they got their ass kicked 30 to nothing to the Carolina Panthers. So, they got to prove as well as Buffalo who they are because the [ __ ] is over. Preseason, getting to know our team, all the transitions. It’s time for real football Monday night in Atlanta. The Bills are 4- one. They’re in first place in the AFC East. The Patriots are 3-2, right on their heels. The Dolphins at 1-4 and the 0 and5 Jets make up the East. The NFC South is a little bit more wide open. Tampa Bay is 4- one including the win at Atlanta in the opener, but the Falcons at 2-2 followed by Carolina at 2 and three in the 1-4 Saints. So, this is really important for Atlanta to stay in reach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the South. Lot of cool matchups in this game. It’s strength versus strength. The Buffalo Bills, the number three overall offense against the Atlanta Falcons, who are number one in the league on defense. Can you believe it? When I look at the Atlanta Falcons, no one’s moving the ball on them. I mean, there are guys flying around to the football. New defensive coordinator Jeff Olrich’s done a hell of a job. Four rookies making significant contributions. Some free agents from other teams, secondyear players from last year that I never really heard of. Can you name any players on this Falcon defense? Jake, go ahead. Yeah, Jesse Bates. Yeah. AJ Terrell and uh there you go. What about you, Clay? Who else can you name? Yeah, I got nothing for you. What? That’s why we call this defense the blank squad. Their owner is Arthur Blank. I want everybody to refer to these cats as the blank squad. Guys that we don’t even know their names, like Jake. Uh what you’re going to find out in this episode. The big thing with this Falcon defense is it’s one thing to be number one after four or five games, but they haven’t really seen a lot of great quarterbacks. Yes, they saw Baker Mayfield in week one, but Mayfield had a lot of backup offensive line playing. They saw JJ McCarthy. They saw Bryce Young and they saw Washington’s backup Marcus Mariota. Tonight, they get to see the beast, the MVP of the league in Josh Allen. So, this will be a great indicator just how good this Atlanta Falcon defense is. What I love about Raheem Morris, who used to coach me way back in the day, is he went through this when he was the defensive coordinator of the Rams. They had Kobe Turner, Jared Verse, Byron Young. They had this Braden Fisk all come in as rookies. And I didn’t know a lot of the Rams, but they got after your ass. And they helped him get the head coaching job of the Atlanta Falcons. That’s what they’re doing on defense. James Pierce. I mean, who the heck is Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman? You look over here, it’s Jaylen Walker. Four rookies just like he did it with the Rams. And they’re running around having fun, smashing you. vintage Raheem Morris stuff. It’s really cool. You guys will see what I’m talking about. Josh Allen has played against this defensive coordinator Jeff Olrich before. And that’s what you do when you’re in coaching. You go back and see who am I going up against? Which coordinator do I have to deal with this week? Jeff Olrich. Well, Olrich was the head coach of the Jets. He was an interim head coach, defensive coordinator of the Jets for three years. So, who do you think studied all off season? Jake Josh Allen. He studied Josh Allen. So, it’ll be interesting to see these two match wits again on a national stage. Both of these teams excel in ball control. I love time of possession. The Buffalo Bills, they have the ball 34 minutes a game, number one in the league. The Falcons have it 33 and a half minutes. They’re number two. So, both of these teams, they can convert on third down. They can possess the ball with a strong running game. These two teams also have very good rushing attacks and they got two great backs. Bejian Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons, James Cook of the Buffalo Bills, two of the best. Not just running it, they can catch it and they can make big plays through four games. Bean Robinson already has 584 yards from scrimmage. That’s second in the league. James Cook has 539. That’s number six. Big play runners, big play receivers. These guys can really do a lot faking to set up some playaction passes. I like backs that can get allpurpose yardage, rushing and receiving. I love guys like Marshall Faulk, Chris Johnson, Leaney and Tomlinson, and Christian McCaffrey. Our guy Josh Jacobs back in the day went over 2,000 rushing and receiving. It goes on and on. I love Tiki Barber. Don’t you guys love Marcus Allen, Barry Sanders, guys that can run it and catch it? We got two of them in this game. You ever heard that song Rocket Man, Jake? Rocket Man. We got two Rocket Men in this game. Two of the biggest arms in all of football. When I was with Green Bay, we had a Rocket Man named Brett Favre. I used to stand back there in practice and go, “Holy [ __ ] did you see that throw?” Then we had Randall Cunningham in Philadelphia. He threw one out of Veteran Stadium one day and hit some guy on South Street. Rocket arms, man. Pedex and Josh Allen. I’m just hoping that these coordinators let these two let it rip tonight. You know, Pennock, as good as his arm is, he’s only attempted seven passes of over 20 yards this season. One for seven, but man, does this guy have a rocket for an arm. And Josh Allen, he’s looking for a go-to receiver. Seems like ever since they lost Gabe Davis and Stefont Diggs, they’re throwing a lot of quick passes. Don’t get me wrong, I just want to see my rocket man launch it in the dome where the conditions are perfect. Josh Allen in his 129th start, the MVP of the league against Mike Pennix, making just his eighth start. What an opportunity it is for Josh Allen to end the negative momentum. That’s what I’ve always loved about Josh Allen. He’s 24-8 after a loss. You know, negative momentum is a bad thing, Clay. You have a bad day, then you have another bad day, pretty soon you got a bad week and a bad month and a bad life. Josh Allen, [ __ ] He ends the bad momentum. He’s 24 and8 after a loss. I love that in a quarterback. Mike Pennix, he needs a win like this on a national stage to really launch his career into another level. The thing about Pennix is he’s got to become more consistent. He can’t play like he did against Carolina one week and Washington the next. Penn is three and4 all time as a starter. When he throws over 60%, Clay, they’re 3 and 0. When he throws under 60%, they’re 0 and4. So, he’s got to get the ball out on time and accurate. Get this Falcon offense moving. And I think he’s going to have to score some points. A hell of a lot more points than the 19 points per game Atlanta is averaging. They’re capable of it. They got to do it against this Buffalo Bill defense. Let’s take a look at the kickers in this game. The Atlanta Falcons, they kick three field goals a game. One of the problems is is they’re kicking too many field goals. They’re struggling in the red zone. They had a kicker named Young Ho Coup. He missed a key kick that lost that game against Tampa Bay and they let him go. Now they have a new kicker. His name is Parker Romo. He went five for five against Minnesota. I think I made him one of those guys that made me feel nicy. Oh, he made me feel good. But he’s missed a couple kicks. Now he’s seven for nine, five for five on extra points. Parker Romo, let’s not kick any field goals. Let’s kick extra points only in this one. And for the Buffalo Bills, remember Tyler Bass, last year’s kicker, is on IR. He’s scheduled to come back pretty soon, but they’ve been using Matt Prader, the veteran. He has been excellent. 10 for 11 on field goals, 14 for 15 on Pat. So, both teams have kickers that weren’t expected to be their kicker when the season started. And there are some key injuries to report in this game. for the Atlanta Falcons. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney is out. Mooney missed almost all of training camp with the shoulder problem. He finally gets back. Hurts his hamstring. He is out. Lale London, a defensive tackle who’s really done some surprising things. He’s out of the game. We don’t know the extent of his injury, but the information we have is he is out. AJ Terrell, their star corner, he’s back. He practiced. He could be the starter against this Buffalo Bill offense. And that is a welcome home for the Atlanta Falcons. He’s a hell of a corner. Number 24. Billy Bowman, starting nickel and Xavier Watts, starting free safety. Two rookies have some injuries, groin and ankle problems. They’re both questionable, but expected to play. Now, there’s some big news in Buffalo. They have been struggling without Ed Oliver, their star defensive tackle. They’ve missed the inside pass rush. They’ve missed his penetration in the running game. Ed Oliver was a full go on the practice field. He’s expected to play. Dorian Williams, leading tackler last year, 115 tackles. He missed last week’s game. They say he’s going to play as well. That should give this Buffalo defense a real jolt, man. Matt Milano, linebacker, reagravated that injury last week against the New England Patriots. He is out. And TJ Sanders, second round draft choice at Oliver’s backup. He’s out of the game. Those are two significant injuries. And Maxwell Haristen, make a note of that, Jake. Maxwell Haristen, number one draft choice from Kentucky, number 31. Hasn’t played yet, but he returned to the practice field. He is closing in on his return. And we must keep an eye on Dalton Canincaid, tight end of the Buffalo Bills. He’s their leading receiver. He’s over a 100 yards last week against New England. He hurt that oblique. That can be a painful injury. He’s questionable. And Curtis Samuel, who’s been in and out of the lineup with injuries, is also questionable. So, look up these injuries. Get all the facts before you do anything. Let’s get into it. This offense defense matchup is brought to you by Fox One. On Fox One, you can stream your favorite live sports so you never miss that. Did you see that moment? That means Fox NFL Sundays are now on Fox One. It’s NFL Sundays all streaming live the way it was meant to be watched. It’s also the best way to stay locked in on your action. Whether you’re sweating your fantasy matchup, tracking a parlay, or riding the chaos live as it happens. I can’t stand delays. I got to watch things live as they happen, man. Start your 7-day free trial today. Offers are subject to change. Go to Fox1 for complete terms and conditions. [Music] Okay, let’s take a look at this Buffalo Bill offense against this Atlanta Falcon defense. It’s been a while since we’ve talked about Buffalo. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady does a great job. It’s a balanced offense. 50% run, 50% pass. It’s like right down the middle. I used to crave that kind of balance when I was a coach. Now I crave other things. You know what I mean? The Buffalo Bills, the Indianapolis Colts, the Dallas Cowboys are the only three teams in pro football that are in the top 10 in scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense, and passing offense. And when you add that 50/50 balance to it, you can see why the Bills are hard to defend, especially when you got an MVP quarterback like Josh Allen, who’s a beast. What’s interesting about Buffalo is they’re not a spread offense like a lot of these teams. Most teams use 11 personnel, one back, one tight end, three receivers all the time. When I watch Buffalo, they’re using a lot of two back sets. They’ll bring in a fullback, number 41, Reggie Gilliam. They’ll go with two tight ends. They’ll use Dawson Knox and they’ll use Daltton Concaid. And then they got a rookie, some fifth round draft pick named Jackson Hos out of Georgia Tech. They’ll play three tight ends in 13 personnel. So, they’re really attacking your base defense a lot more than most teams. And that’s a change that you don’t see often. I think Buffalo has really got to prepare themselves for the Atlanta Falcons blitz package. Jeff Olrich of the Falcons blitzes 44% of the time. Far and away number one in the NFL. That’s like 13% more than the Minnesota Vikings. So Atlanta’s bringing heat on Monday night in the noise. So this offensive line of the Bills, as good as they are, they’re going to have to pick up some blitzes that involves James Cook, Ty Johnson, the running backs are going to be a big part of this protection plan as well. You study Buffalo against the blitz. It’s been pretty good. It hasn’t been great. Statistically, the Buffalo Bills complete less passes, are less productive so far against the Blitz than they are against fourman rushes. So, that is a big thing to look for in this ball game. The Bills use a lot of motion. 244 snaps. They put a receiver in motion. That’s second in the league to the 49ers who have done it 246 times. a lot of fly motions, a lot of short motions, a lot of times the backle motion out of the back field, but they do a great job of trying to help their receivers get some free releases. They try to force defenses into mistakes and rotations. They make the linebackers bump in the box and they create good blocking angles and recognition for their offensive line and their quarterback. Josh Allen has been great with ball security and we’ve given him great props for that. The Bills almost set an NFL record last year for the fewest amount of turnovers. But last week, what the hell happened, man, against New England, Josh Allen uncharacteristically was late down the middle. He threw an interception in the red zone, wiped away points. They got a little fancy, kind of like Malisac. They ran a jet sweep to Dawson Knox, a tight end. Bad ball handling. It’s on the floor. Guess what? Patriots recovered it. And then Keon Coleman, secondyear receiver, he’s been inconsistent. He fumbles on their own 10 yardd line. Sets up New England for points. Three turnovers. They got to get back to playing very clean against this Falcon defense. Cuz I’ll tell you, these Falcons, they fly around and they knock the [ __ ] out of you. So, they got to do a great job. They got to be ready for blind pursuit. I mean, you’re running for a touchdown and these Falcon guys, Go ahead, Jake. Show me what they pound that out, man. only they do it a little bit more viciously. So they got to do a great job. The Buffalo Bills getting back to great ball security and decision making. The Bills really rely on a quick passing game, a lot of quick screens to Khil Shakir. They get the ball out quick. They let the guys run after the catch. They throw a lot of screens and they’re very good getting the ball out under 2.5 seconds. The best part of the Bills offense is when Josh Allen says the hell with it. I’m out of here. 20% of Josh Allen’s drop back passes are scrambles. And when he takes off, man, he does damage. He has run the ball for more yards in five games than he has in his entire career. Over 200. Not only does he run, he gets first downs. How about 13 first downs already? He’s rushed for scramble it. And then he can scramble. He can come over here, come over there, and throw the ball down the field and create big plays. That’s what Josh Allen is incredible at. Better than anybody if you ask me. The Bills have really struggled throwing the ball to the receivers on the outside. Keon Coleman, we talked about he had a 100 yards in that first game against the Baltimore Ravens, but he’s been up and down quiet ever since. Joshua Palmer came over from the Chargers. He’s been awful quiet lately. The big passing game comes to Khalil Shakir in the slot. He’s got over 200 yards receiving. He’s their leading pass catcher from the receiver position. Most of the passing yardage is coming from the tight ends. Matter of fact, the Buffalo Bills have 395 yards receiving from their tight ends. That’s number one in the league, man. Dalton Kincade, let’s hope he plays. He’s got 287 yards already. And this group, they’ve combined for almost 400 yards. Ever since Buffalo lost Gabe Davis and Stfant Diggs, they have really struggled, especially this year, getting in a rhythm with their receivers on the outside. I think that’s got to change soon for this Buffalo offense to truly take off. Can they beat man coverage? Last week, the New England Patriots played a lot of one plug. We went over that on Gruden’s glossery if you saw that episode. Manto man everywhere. Two linebackers key in the back. The back goes this way. That linebacker has them. This linebacker’s free and they got somebody deep. New England locked them down and did a great job playing that coverage. Will Atlanta do that with some pressure? Will they play man and try to glove these receivers? We’ll see. The Bills are going to rely on two players. Josh Allen throwing it and scrambling and are going to go to James Cook. James Cook, he is a pain in the ass to defend, man. He is really effective. A lot of people don’t know this, but the majority of his damage comes between the tackles. He is not a little back. He might not be a big, tall, strong back, but boy, he busts tackles. He can make you miss. And he is a furious competitor, especially late in the game. This guy can finish your day, man. So, the Falcons got to be ready for James Cook. Let’s take a look at the Falcons defense. Jeff Olrich in his first year comes over from the Jets. Last year, Jimmy Lake and the Falcon defense struggled. They gave up 345 yards a game. Right now, they’re giving up 244, 100 yards difference. Last year, they gave up a lot of yards passing. Right now, Atlanta is number one in the league in pass defense. So, it’s a credit to come in here. They’ve added some talent, but they’ve also changed the work ethic. These guys are working their ass off. They’re on a routine, man. You can just see it. their preparation, their conditioning, their accountability, and their effort has skyrocketed compared to last year’s tape from what I’ve seen. Credit to Olrich and his staff. Not only is Jeff Olrich and Raheem Morris, two outstanding defensive coaches, they added Nate Ali, defensive line coach from the Texans, and man has he done a hell of a job. They added Mike Rutenberg. This guy’s the pass game coordinator on defense. So, it’s a brain trust of men that has really come in here and improved the scheme and demanded effort and the players have really come in and delivered and they’ve added a lot of new talent. I call these guys the blank squad. Arthur Blank, you got it. He’s the owner. A lot of people don’t know their names. Can you name any Atlanta Falcon defenders, Clay? Not one. You see that right there? Well, you’re going to find out. They have four rookies playing a significant role. They have a couple second-year players. A lot of people don’t even know this, but Brandon Doris, number 54, he is a son of a [ __ ] in there on defense, man. He’s doing a hell of a job. And they added some free agents. Floyd comes over. They bring in a couple other players like Divine Diablo, an old Las Vegas Raider who said all my draft picks were bad. When I look at the Falcons on defense, it’s like the three Fs. You know, they’re fast, man. And they’re fresh because they play nine different defensive linemen. Fast, fresh, and physical. They are physical. Is that an F, Jake? No. Yeah, it is. They’re really good tacklers. They don’t give up a lot of [ __ ] plays. I know Xavier Watts missed a tackle last week on a long run by Washington, but other than that, they do a great job keeping the ball in front. And a lot of times when you freeze the projector, you’ll see a guy on the other team with the ball. You might see nine or 10 Falcons on the screen. They’re all hauling ass to the football. It’s a cult. It’s a culture they’ve created. And it is fun to watch. This is a number one blitz team in the league. We said that by far. And it’s not just their blitzing, okay? It’s the volume of heat. Kaden Ellis from the inside. Kaden Ellis from the outside. Double A’s. double trouble. I mean, they do a great job with fourman overloads, predator blitzes, all kind of different things you got to prepare for and deal with. And when you execute the coverage behind it, it’s a beautiful thing to watch. Last year, the Falcons had a horrible pass rush. They were poor. Grady Jarrett left town, Matthew Judon left town. They brought in a lot of new players and a new attitude and a new defensive line coach. And so far, the results have been great. But you can’t judge your defense against anybody. You can only judge it against the best. Well, here it is. Josh Allen and this highpowered Buffalo Bill offense coming off of losses in town. It gets no harder than that. The Falcons are number one in the league on third down defense, 34%, and they’ve only allowed 14 first downs per game. One of the reasons why the Falcons have such great time of possession is their ability to get off the field on third down. And they do it with pressure, blitzes, and outstanding coverage and effort and tackling. And it’s been a great combination. The rotation of players on the Dline, it’s incredible. You really got to have a media guide to see who the hell these blank squad guys are, man. They have nine different players on their front that have played 25% of the snaps or more. They use a lot of different rotations. That’s why I would be shocked if Josh Allen and Joe Brady don’t use a no huddle offense. I’d use a no huddle offense. Take the crowd out of the game and take some of these substitutions out of the game and make some of these guys play a little bit more than they’ve been playing. Perhaps regulate and his scheme. The big thing with the Falcons is, can we stop the run against James Cook and company? They gave up 147 yards last week to the Washington Commanders. 48 of it was on a long run, 22 on a Mariota scramble. They’ve got to stop Cook like New England did last week. Load the box, make Josh Allen throw the ball to some of these receivers he’s not real comfortable throwing it against. The big thing the Falcons have done a lot of in the first four or five weeks of the season is they play a jam front, meaning they cover the center, they cover both guards, and they create a lot of one-on-one blocks and they’ll stunt the front. So that jam front covering everybody has a lot to do with creating pressure, making it hard to run the ball, and you got to be ready now to win in some one-on-one situations. Let’s get into the matchups for the Buffalo Bills. They have a very well-known offensive line led by Dion Dawkins, their Pro Bowl left tackle. He is arguably the best in the business. He did hurt that hand last week against the Patriots. We got to keep an eye on that, but Dawkins can pull, he can run, block, he can pass protect with the best of them. He’s outstanding. David Edwards at left guard. We got to keep an eye on Conor McGovern, number 66, the center of the Bills. He hurt his hand. He dislocated two fingers last week. How the hell do you snap the ball with two dislocated fingers? We got to keep an eye on that. We expect McGovern to play. He returned to the game and finished. He’s a badass. Osiris Torrance at right guard and Spencer Brown at right tackle appears to be healthy. Remember Spencer Brown missed the game. He came back last week and in his absence, Ryan Vandermark took his place. But Spencer Brown, he is a mofo over there. He can pass, protect, really move his feet and cover up defenders. And these offensive linemen are going to have their hands full against the blank squad. They are led by number 96, Zack Harrison. He leads the team in sacks with two and a half. The ex Ohio State Buckeye is a very good player. David Anamada, number 90 will be the nose tackle. He’s a run defender. I love Brandon Doris, number 54, secondyear player. He missed last season. He flashes as an inside rusher and as a run defender. They also have Leonard Floyd, ex Chicago Bear, ex 49er. He comes in and gives them some pop. And they have two rookies that don’t start, but do play a significant role. James Pierce, number 27 from Tennessee. He’s had 40 rushes. He has a half a sack and eight pressures. He is a good young prospect. They use him in passing situations. Jaylen Walker, number 11, high pick out of Georgia. They’re still carving out a role for him, but when he plays, I feel his presence, man. He plays outside linebacker in their base. They use him as a sub rusher, and he can get off the rock. So, they got a couple rookies making contributions. Make a note here, Jake. Luke or Ro, Row, Row. This guy’s a hell of an inside rusher. Number 98. He’s got 72 pass rushes. He’s got eight or nine really good pressures up the gut. He’s a good player. And one of my other favorite players is number 17, Arnold Ebocati. He’s an outside linebacker edge player. They got a lot of guys they’re using and they rotate them and keep them fresh. That’s why I think Buffalo would be wise to up the tempo. The running back, James Cook, has done an unbelievable job. Over 300 yards after contact. He’s forced 21 missed tackles. He’s a good receiver. He’s got to be ready to pick up some blitzes because Kaden Ellis, make a note of that guy. Malisk 55. He’s one of the most unsung players in the NFL. Last year, Ellis, a allp pro grooted grinder, had 150 tackles. He had five sacks. And this year, he’s all over the place. Four tackles for loss, a sack and a half. Number 55 will blitz right up the gut. They’ll put him on the line of scrimmage and blitz them. He is a hell of a football player. And number zero, Divine Diablo, the X-Raider. He’s got 18 tackles. He does an excellent job in space. He can cover backs and tight ends. He’s tipped a few passes. He’s got really good range. He’s an ex-safety in college. They’re very athletic and versatile with the Vine Diablo and also number 55 Kaden Ellis. What’s surprising about the Bills is we haven’t seen much of Ty Johnson or Ray Davis. Both of them contributed more last year, but after James Cook got that big contract, he got more balls. You know what I mean? So far this year, Davis and Johnson have combined for 83 yards and 25 carries. But I think Tai Johnson is going to help Buffalo win this game by picking up blitzes and catching passes out of the back field. Very important that we keep an eye on the blitz pickup in this game. The safety for the Atlanta Falcons, Jesse Bates. I call him the Bates Hotel because you go in, you never come out. Bates is the only guy in the league last year with a 100 tackles, four forced fumbles, and four interceptions. He’s a badass. He can play down in the box. He can play deep. He got great ball skills, great communication skills. He’s a leader on the Falcon defense. The other safety is a rookie, Xavier Watts, number 31 out of Notre Dame. How the hell does he last until the third round? He had 13 interceptions in two seasons. key in the quarterback, has great anticipation and range. He did miss an open field tackle last week, but this man has 22 tackles, two interceptions. He’s been a real difference maker in the middle of the Falcon defense. And the other rookie playing in the slot is number 33, Billy Bowman. He’s not the biggest guy, but he might be the toughest guy because he’s playing one of the toughest position. He’s come in here out of Oklahoma. He’s got an unbelievable interception against the Vikings. He’s forced the fumble. He’s made 17 tackles. This safety man Watts and this nickel man Bowman, they don’t look like rookies. And if they get AJ Terrell back at right corner, that is huge. Terrell’s a guy I wanted to draft when I was in Vegas. Damn Falcons took him right before we picked. That’s for another day. But AJ Terrell, he’s got great coverage skills. He’s a very physical corner and they would love to see him back on the outside. The other corner is Mike Hughes, number 21. He is another unsung hero of this defense. Two great PBUs last week against the Commanders. Hughes is a very good tackler, and I like the matchups the Falcons have against these Buffalo receivers. So far, Joshua Palmer, number five, has been very hit or miss. And over here, Keon Coleman, he’s been a disappointment to me. He’s the guy I predicted at the beginning of the year to have a thousand yards easy, and he showed it in his first game, but he was suspended, didn’t start last week. There was a team violation couple weeks ago. He didn’t start the game. Another team violation. We got to get it together, man. You got to become the attraction instead of the distraction. Keon, we got to get more out of you. You know, high maintenance, some maintenance. We need no maintenance. We got to get Keon Coleman to become the go-to guy of the Buffalo Bills. Are you with me, Jake? Y. He’s got 21 catches, 226 yards, two touchdowns, but he’s been up and down. And that fumble last week at the 10 yardd line are kind of a summary of this guy’s season. So if he doesn’t step up, I would think Joe Brady, Shawn McDermott are going to go find somebody that will because the trade deadline is looming, you know. And we got the MVP number 17 who needs action over there. Very important. Khalil Shakir, he is the leading receiver of the receivers. He’s had a good year. 22 catches, 235 yards. But his route tree is like a lot of slots. It’s bubble screens, quick screens, and option routes. And that’s pretty much what Shakir runs. He had an unbelievable 45 yd run on a quick screen against the Saints. He is nasty quick. He will be tested by Billy Bowman, the rookie. So keep an eye on that. The big thing for the Falcons is what are we gonna do with the tight ends of the Buffalo Bills? They have morphed into a team that uses tight ends, 12 and 13 personnel, and they are throwing the ball to the tight end. Specifically, Dalton Kinc Kade, the former number one pick out of Utah. He looks like everything he was advertised to be coming into Buffalo as a rookie. And he’s running a lot of different routes, and he’s really the guy that Allen looks for when he scramles. A couple of his catches last week against New England were great scrambled drill plays. And I love I love Jackson Haw out of Georgia Tech. You know why, Jake? Because he’ll block the C gap. I mean, a lot of these running plays, he sticks his face in there, man, and blocks defensive ends. He can pass protect. He does a lot of great things without the football. This is going to be a hell of a matchup. The blank squad. Think about it. Going up against the Buffalo Bills in prime time. Let’s go. All right. The Falcons offense against the Buffalo Bill defense. This is interesting. The Falcons, they have a lot of first round picks on this offense. Six number on’s, a number two, a lot of top 10 picks. They’re playing at home. Monday Night Football. What a launching pad. This is the Falcons make a lot of yards. Statistically, they move the ball, they make yards. They’re just not scoring consistently. That’s what we need to see in the dome Monday night. The Falcons made a significant change last week against the Washington Commanders. They have a new receiver coach. Coach Morris made a coaching change and they took offensive coordinator Zack Robinson out of the press box and they brought him down on the field and everything got rave reviews. That’s normally how it goes when you win a game. Woo! Everything’s wonderful. They got to prove that they can keep this operation going. They’ve had some communication problems, some wasted timeouts early in the season, but it looked a lot smoother last week against the Commanders. And I would expect coming off the by-week, there will be no kinks at all. This Falcon offense should have a lot of confidence after the way they played against the Commanders. When I watch the Falcons play, what really jumps at me is it’s a shotgun operation. 95% of the snaps, Mike Pennix is in the gun. He’s only been under the center 12 times all year. And not only the shotgun, they’re in the pistol, Clay. So they have the center and a quarterback in the gun and they put Bejon Robinson right behind the quarterback. We call that the pistol. The shotgun normally the back is offset. So they’ll be in the shotgun with the back offset, but they’re in the pistol quite a bit. And they have some tendencies, at least the ones I see when I look at the tape. Now when you’re in the pistol 48% of the time, you can put all those plays on a reel. And I say to you, Jake, it’s 74% run. So when Bejon’s behind the quarterback in the shotgun, we call it pistol. I want everybody at home to start yelling at the TV, “Watch the run. Watch the run. Watch the run.” Now, when they get into the shotgun and they offset the back away from Penn, they’re in the shotgun 47% of the time and it’s almost 85% pass. So when Pennix is in the gun and the back is offset, watch the pass. When he’s in the dot behind him, we call it the pistol. Watch the run. Knock on a grease board if you’re with me. They’ve only been under the center 12 times. 11 times it’s been a run. So, I look at those tendencies. It doesn’t mean anything really, but it does give you a pretty good indication, run or pass. The big thing with Mike Pennix, and I love this guy. He’s a rocket man. His arm talent is freaking awesome. I think he could throw the ball through a car wash and it wouldn’t get wet. This guy got really rip it, man. It’s a quick arm. He looks people off. He’s got power in that arm. Touch, trajectory. He’s got anticipation. He’s got it all. But I want more consistency. I want panics every time he shows up to lay down the law, baby. When you watch him play against the Commanders, I swear I go, “Holy [ __ ] that’s a Pro Bowl quarterback. That guy’s winning Super Bowls. 20 for 26. 313 yards. 12 yards of play. He got everybody involved. Touchdown Pitts. Touchdown Bejan. Touchdown Drake London. It was the first time all three of those guys scored in the same game as a Falcon. [ __ ] They’re all top 10 picks. So is Pennix. Let’s have more of that. But he looked awesome last week. He looked confident. He really looked poised. And I love the Falcons quarterback coach. You know who it is, Jake? His name is DJ Williams. Doug Williams, former quarterback of the Bucks and Commanders. That’s his son. And he asked his dad, he said, “What would you tell Pennix?” He says, “You tell Pennix to quit being Superman. Just go out there and play quarterback, distribute the ball.” And I think that gave him a good winning edge before the ball game. What I mean by consistency is you can’t play that good against Washington and then go out there the week before against Carolina and go 18 for 36, 170 yards, throw two picks, one of them for a touchdown, and get your ass kicked. We got to continue to build blocks of consistency. This will be a great opportunity for Penn to do that on the national stage. I think Pennix is going to have to have another great fourth quarter to win this football game. Last week, I thought Drake May was awesome at the end of the game. He made an unbelievable play to start the drive. He made an unbelievable throw in the hole between the corner and the safety to win the game. I think that’s what Pennix did last week against Washington. Three times on third down, he broke their heart. That’s what Pennix is going to have to do in this game. He’s going to have the ball late. He’s going to have to be at his best in a crunchtime two-minute situation. The one thing that I always say is surprising when I watch this Falcon offense is they have a great running game. It really is a wide zone base system. They use Bejon. Tyler Alers is also a great complimentary back. There just isn’t a lot of play action passes. Last year they only threw 14% play action. That’s the smallest amount in the league. This year they’re 27th in the league. There’s just not a lot of hard play action passes to generate chunks. Most of this offense relies on Pennix, his arm talent, pass protection, open receivers. I’d like to see selfishly some more play action on the horizon here in this Falcon offense. The Falcons also got to score more touchdowns in the red zone. That’s a big reason why they’re only averaging 19 points a game. They kick too many field goals, three per game. But right now, they’re 26 in the league in the red zone, only scoring touchdowns 46% of the time. And they’re just not scoring enough touchdowns, period. Every time you get the ball, every possession, the Falcons only score a touchdown 15% of the time. That’s last in the league. They got to take that ball and go all the way down the field and score touchdowns. I think to beat the Buffalo Bills, they got to have better play selection and better execution in the red zone to win this football game. Mark that down. Let’s take a look at the Bills defense. They are going to welcome the return of Ed Oliver. He’s their best inside player by far. Ed Oliver, you could say, won the game for the Bills against the Ravens in the first game. He had six tackles, three TFLs, a sack, and he’s the guy that stripped Henry late in the game. He hasn’t played since. So they need that inside pass rusher for Bosa and for Rouso coming off the edge. That inside pass rush has been huge for the Bills for the last six years. Getting number 91 Ed Oliver back. It is a huge upgrade for the Bills. But they’re missing TJ Sanders, his backup, second round pick. They’re going to be missing Matt Milano with starting linebacker. They still have some injuries to overcome. Think about this. You want a positive, Clay? You want to hear something positive? In two more games, the Buffalo Bills open the door to welcome Larry Ogan Joby, a big stud, defensive tackle, and Michael Hoy, another edge rusher, outstanding veteran player. These guys are suspended for the first six games. So, in a couple weeks with the return of Ed Oliver getting these veterans back, the Buffalo Bills will become full strength. But even with the injuries, the Bills have 13 sacks, ninth in the league. They’re in the top 15 in pressure rate. So, it hasn’t been a lost cause. They’ve got great contributions from the excharger, Joey Bosa. Joey Bosa has caused four fumbles. He lines up on the left, on the right. Bosa is a pain in the ass. The Bills will play a lot of coverage against Mike Pennix zone coverage. They rarely play man-to-man and they’re not a big blitz team, but they will disguise coverages. This free safety in the middle of the field, he’ll make it look like it’s single high. On a snap of the ball, he’ll roll over here into split safety coverages. They’ll start in split safeties and right before the ball snap, the safeties will rotate into a single high. They do a nice job mixing coverages. So, if they can get some rush on Penn and fool them with some coverages, perhaps they can start to get some more signature plays, turnovers from their defense. Right now, they just have two interceptions and 10 PBUs. They haven’t been getting a lot of ball production from the back end. That’s unlike Buffalo. They used to get a lot of hands on the ball, man. I think they got a key on Bejian Robinson. They got to do some things to stop this cat from impacting a game. Bejian Robinson is 40% of Atlanta’s offense, rushing and receiving. Last week, Bejian four catches, 105, 17 carries, 75. Where is number seven? What are we going to do to cancel his production? You’re not going to take all of it away, but we got to minimize the damage when it comes to Bejian Robinson. The run defense has been a real problem for Buffalo this year. Now, it was better last week against the New England Patriots. Only 71 yards allowed 3.2 yards of rush and they gave up a couple fake 62 flips on the perimeter. That was it. They played a lot better. But so far this year, when you look at it, they’ve given up 27 runs of 10 or more yards. That’s tied for the number one total in the league. Tied with Miami. That ain’t good. They got to do a better job stopping a run. 146 yards a game, 5.6 yards a carry against Bejan Robinson and Tyler Alers. Woo. Not good. They got to do a much better job. Let’s take a look at the matchups. The offensive line of the Falcons, they started the season with a lot of continuity. Jake Matthews, he’s played 13 years. Hell of a player. Left tackle. At left guard, Matthew Burggeron, second round pick. Ryan Nel took over at center for Drew Dolman who left. Nel started the last half of last season. He’s a solid player. Chris Lindstöm 63 at right guard. Take a look at him. He’s been to three straight Pro Bowls. He’s going to go to number four if he keeps doing what he’s doing. He hasn’t given up a sack yet. And we got to take a good look at Elijah Wilkerson. He’s the new right tackle. Caleb McGra, the starter, got hurt early this season. Wilkerson has walked in here and played well. The ex Denver Bronco, positive guy, man. Everybody loves a juice that Wilkerson has. But I got to ask you this. Are you ready for Joey Bosa? The Buffalo Bill pass rush. Really, it’s been Joey Bosa that pops off the screen to me. He plays 57% on the right side, 43% on the left side. He’s looking for a candy bar to take a bite out of. I know Bosa great get off. He’s got the great speed rush. He can really counter with the spin. And he’s got a knack for forcing fumbles. Boy, he used to piss me off. I still have nightmares of Bosa. They got to have a plan to help Wilkerson against number 97. And I still love Greg Russo. I still think Russo is waiting to come out and have an explosion game. Very good run defender, number 50. Very good rusher. I think Russo is primed for a big game. He had a couple great plays early in that game last week against the Patriots. Inside Ed Oliver, how much can he play? What is his conditioning? I have to assume he’s 100% ready to rumble. That’s just how Ed Oliver plays. Don’t give me this [ __ ] Ah, put him on a pitch count. That’s not how Ed Oliver rolls, man. This guy goes 111 miles an hour and that’s just how he rolls. I love watching them play. Oliver Russo and Bosa need big time games in this one in prime time and that’s normally what they deliver. Daquin Jones has played a lot of snaps the last couple weeks because of the injuries. He played 73% of the snaps. I think his role will decrease a little bit. More of a run stuffer if you ask me. I also love 57 AJ Epanessa. He closed out the Saints a couple weeks ago. Nobody plays with much more effort than him. He’s a hell of a football player. They have a young defensive tackle draft pick out of Kentucky named Walker. You can’t miss him. He’s about 8 feet tall. This guy’s a monster. He wears number 96. His pad level’s getting better, but it’s still high. Not much of a rusher, but Walker and Jones will be the key run stuffers inside. It’ll be Rouso, Epanessa, and Bosa screaming off the edge. The receiver that the Bills got to deal with is Drake London. He’s the wide out that Pennix is looking for. He leads the Falcons 24 catches, 269 yards. He went off last week, eight for 110. The thing about London, he can play Z on the strong side, he can play X on the weak side, and they love to put him in the slot. When they’re looking to throw the ball, they’re going to move London wherever the hell they need him to be to become the primary receiver. So, all these corners have to be ready to stop number five. The number two receiver for the Falcons used to be Darnell Mooney. He was close to a thousand yards last year, just seven catches and a bunch of injuries so far this year. They’ve been using Casey Washington, number 82. He returned last week with a couple catches against Washington, but he missed a couple games with a concussion. And I don’t know where Ray Ray Mloud has been. His production has fallen off dramatically this year. He had a big year last season, but right now he’s more of a diversion than a primary receiver. They got to deal with London at all times. And I’m sure Sean McDermott and his Buffalo defensive staff is aware of that. The other guy that’s come back to life is number eight, Kyle Pitts. Great guy out of the University of Florida. We’ve had him in here at the FCA. He’s got 20 catches, 205 yards. It’s not just the production catching the ball. It’s the routes. It’s the snapping out of it at the top. It’s being quarterback friendly, sitting down against zone, staying on the move against man, blocking in the running game, combination blocks between the tackle and tight end. He’s more engaged. He’s looking better than he has in the last couple years. So, when Pennix throws it, London number five, pits number eight. And the most important part of this offense, as I said, is Bejian Robbins. Robinson just doesn’t play running back. They play him in the slot. They’ll move him all over in these empty backfield sets and throw him passes. He is a great receiver. And I love the backs of these Atlanta Falcons. I call him the Atlanta rhythm section. You know, I’m so into you. God, I love Al Jers. He comes off the bench and he’s like a [ __ ] eatating wildat, man. He runs hard. He runs possessed. And Bejon, he’s a game changer. They also have another tight end if you’re interested at home named Charlie Werner. Take a look at this Jake. They put him over here in the pistol. There’s Bejon in the pistol behind Penn. And they’ll put Pitts over here at tight end. And they use this Charlie Warner guy. It’s kind of an Hback fullback. I don’t know what he’s doing back there, but they run this wide zone and they use all the combination blocks at the at the point of attack and on the play side that everybody uses, but it’s Charlie Warner on the back side. A lot of times it looks like he’s entering the A gap and they kind of zone it off. If that berseron starts to the inside and that defensive tackle stays outside, Warner will block the tackle and the guard will come up for the linebacker. Jake Matthews, he just kicks out the backside end. The next time if Burggeron starts inside and the tackle crosses his face, I see Wernern come up to block the linebacker. They do a great job on the backside allowing Bejon to press it and cut it back. It’s very creative, interesting, cutting edge stuff. I’m learning something here. I freaking love it. Let’s take a look at this Buffalo secondary real quick. At right corner has been Tradavius White. Now, Tradavius White was a Buffalo Bill. He left, he became a Ram, he became a Raven. He had a terrible knee injury, terrible Achilles. It’s been 17 games since. He is a pros pro, a real badass. He struggled last week. He had the interference call in the end zone. He was playing cover two. He got fouled for a critical penalty. Stefan Diggs returned to Buffalo and he made some plays against White, but I expect him to respond, man. They also have number 31 Maxwell Haristen. their first round pick. Come on. Maxwell hadn’t played yet. He’s been hurt. Will he play? When will he play? And how much will he play? I would expect Rodavius White to be the right corner. Christian Benford, number 47, one of my favorites, is the left corner. You know, all these stats that people talk about, Jake, he’s giving up four touchdown passes. [ __ ] I watched the four touchdowns. One of them was against the Saints. They ran kind of a gadget play and a free safety was out of position. I don’t even think it was his play. And then DeAndre Hopkins made a DeAndre Hopkins freak show catch against him. I mean, holy [ __ ] the coverage was great. You just got to tip your hat to Hopkins. And then Tyreek Hill got him on a double move whammy weirdo route in the red zone that only Tyreek Hill can do. Christian Benford is a badass and he’s going to have his hands full with London. I can’t wait for that matchup. And a matchup I love is Terron Johnson against anybody. Number seven, Terron Johnson. Whether it’s Mloud, Drake, London, or Pitts, whoever runs a route against number seven better be ready to go. And the linebackers of the Bills, they’ve had some injuries, but Terrell Bernard has had another excellent year. He wears number eight. He’s the green dot quarterback of this defense. The other linebacker, it’s up in the air. It’s not going to be Matt Milano. Last week it was Shaq Thompson, the ex Carolina Panther, and I thought he was a great football player for Carolina, and he showed up and was his vintage self. Number 45 is Shaq Thompson reinventing himself in Buffalo. Will Dorian Williams start and replace Thompson because he’s back in healthy? I love these three Buffalo Bill linebackers. The big issue with the Bills has been the consistency of their safety play. Taylor Rap is the free safety. Good player. I just think they need some great rounds, great sets out of Rap. He’s capable of making some plays on the back end he hasn’t made yet. He missed a tackle that he normally makes. He can get his hands on a couple more balls because he keys the quarterback extremely well. But I think he gets caught up in some disguises sometimes and it hurts him. The other guy’s Cole Bishop. Bishop, he had that one-handed interception against the Saints in the red zone. He is really starting to play faster, more comfortable. He looks at ease. And I know he missed that tackle last week against Stefan Diggs. And all you Bill fans are mad at him for that. But feel good about his progress because he’s going to be a good safety, I believe, for the Bills. Buffalo. They got to find number seven and they got to get some heat on Mike Pennix because if they let him stand back there, he can really do damage with that left arm. This is going to be exciting. I know everybody’s picking Buffalo. They’re four and a half point favorites. Josh Allen is 24 and eight off a loss. He’s the MVP of the league. I’m taking the Falcons and the blank squad in an upset. Mike Pennix. He’s going to take a huge step forward. He’s going to get a lead and the blank squad is going to go crazy in front of their home crowd. Falcons 27, Bills 24.

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