The sky is not falling for the Green Bay Packers despite an “unimpressive” win in Week 6

The sky is not falling for the Green Bay Packers despite an “unimpressive” win in Week 6

It hasn’t been as pretty as Packer fans wanted, but the sky is not falling for this team who now sits a top the NFC North. You are Locked On Packers, your daily Green Bay Packers podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. You are locked on Packers, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I’m Peter Bakowski and I cover the Packers for the Leap, a newsletter I would love for you to subscribe to. Follow me on Twitter, Peter_Bowski. Follow the podcast on Twitter, locked on Packers. Like us on Facebook, subscribe to the podcast, iTunes, Spotify, Google Podcasts. Wherever you find podcasts, you will find Locked on Packers, the number one Packers podcast on the internet and the show for fans who know what happened. They want to know why and how. Thanks to everyone who makes Lockdown Packers their first listen every day. We hope you like starting your day with us as much as we like starting our day with you. Today’s episode brought to you by our friends at FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. I don’t know if you knew this, but the Green Bay Packers are 3-1 and one. They are right now leading the NFC North. And if the season ended today would be the two seed in the NFC playoffs. I don’t know what has everyone so worked up about. They lost to the Browns. They tied with the Cowboys. And I guess they didn’t beat the Bengals by enough is what people are are weird being weird about. I I don’t really understand why there is so much negativity around this team right now. They are still a top 10 team by DVOA, which adjusts for schedule. They are the number two defense, the number two. I know that the the second half there’s been some issues. They’re still the number two defense in the NFL by DVOA as this is without seeing the data from what happens Monday night. Right now, the Atlanta Falcons of all teams are number one. We’ll see if that holds given what happened on Monday night. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. But this is part of the point. And I was having this discussion with Brandon Snyde, my my uh my host over on our locked down Packer squad show, who’s also our Locked On Brewers postcast host, and he is really down on this team. He he asked me for a letter grade for this team to date, and he gave them a C. And I was like, guys, this is the favorite in the NFC right now. Our friends at FanDuel have the Packers as the favorites in the NFC. And not comfortable favorites, but the favorites favorites. Like, not just kind of favorites. The the again, not clear, but definitely the favorites plus 370. The Lions plus 470, the Eagles at 5 to one. So, we’re talking about a a little better than 4:1, a little better than 5:1, and 5:1. Well, there’s a meaningful difference between those. A huge one, no, but a meaningful one. They’re the favorite in the NFC. There are myriad ways for this team to improve. Micah Parsons could start playing and impacting the game like Micah Parsons is capable of doing. the offensive line. Sure, they could get more banged up, but Zack Tom could get healthier. We’ll talk about Zack Tom at the end of the show. Christian Watson is coming back. Marshon Lloyd at some point is going to come back. I I don’t understand what everyone is so worked up about. Who are you worried about? The Eagles are are just as as much fighting themselves as every team they play now. The the receivers hate the offense. The quarterback is limited and the defense is nowhere near as good as it was last year. This was an offense last year or this Philadelphia Eagles team. And and guys, I said this coming into the season. I said the Lions are going to take a step back. The Eagles are going to take a step back. The Vikings are going to take a big step back. All of that stuff happened. All of it happened. We’re here. We’re there. The 49ers were getting by on a soft schedule. They lose Fred Warner probably for the season. I don’t know why you would be afraid of them. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the are the best quote unquote team in the NFC. They have the best record in the NFC, but they’ve won all of their games close. All of them. They needed fourth quarter comebacks in a bunch of them. Like that team is also really banged up. I know that, you know, Mike Evans is going to come back and Amecha Buuka is going to come back and they’re playing with backup offensive linemen, too, but they’re they’re just like lucking into these games. And I know, look, the Packers, they could have done that, too. But they had the ball bounce the wrong way. If the ball bounces just a little differently against the Cowboys, they don’t return that for two points. It’s 13- nothing instead of 13-2 and the Packers probably win that game. if the field goal block doesn’t get field goal doesn’t get blocked at the end of the Browns game. The Packers are 40 and one. So I I I I do to a point understand that aesthetically it doesn’t look like the team we saw in the first two weeks, but as you look around the NFC, where are like, okay, the Packers are not a great team. Show me the great team. Show me the great team that’s out there. Show me the team that scares you. Last year, we saw them play the Eagles and lose twice. We saw them play the Lions twice and lose twice. We saw them play the Vikings twice and lose twice. The best two teams the Packers played, they beat. We know this team is capable of playing at that sort of level. the the Packers beatdown of the Lions in week one remains the most impressive single game played by a team in the NFL this year. So despite the fact that they have not played their best consistently, we have seen that their best right now is the best best of anyone. And that’s what you need in the playoffs. We did not know that in 2024 or 2023. We did not see them play like the best team in the NFL really at any point. Certainly not last year. I think you could make the case in 2023. We saw them beat the Lions in Detroit. We saw them beat Kansas City. Kansas City goes on and wins the Super Bowl. We saw them play like they can beat anybody. And we saw them prove they can beat anybody. Last year we were extrapolating based on the talent on the team and based on what we’d seen in 2023, but they had never proved it on the field. This team has already proven it and they are in that way the victims of their own competency because they were so good especially defensively those first two weeks that anything less than that level is being seen as a huge problem. Again, giving a team that is 3-1 and one and has two comfortable wins over NFC contenders or at least perceived NFC contenders in the case of the Commanders. We’ll see. They’ve been banged up, too. And we’re talking about quarterback injury. Like, then I understand being 01 and one in that Browns Cowboy stretch is annoying. It is annoying. We’ve seen them play down to opponents. But when you can play up to opponents, those are the teams they’re going to to play in January. It’s going to be the best teams. And so if we see that their ceiling is the highest and in those games they play that way, I understand the theory that well the Packers are the only team that can beat the Packers. Well, that’s true of every team. Any team is capable of going out and just peeing down their leg. Any team. We’ve seen teams do it. The Lions did it last year. They were the best team all year. They go out. They prove it. Last game of the season for the NFC North. Supposed to be a great game. And they beat down the Vikings. It is the most impressive win of the Dan Campbell era. The really the only time they’ve blown out a good team in his tenure. and then they didn’t even win a playoff game. Any team is capable of self-sabotage. Really, the only team we haven’t seen do it in a big moment over the last handful of seasons is the Kansas City Chiefs. The the games that they lost, they lost to Tampa when Tampa just was flat out better. And I think that Packers 2020 team would have beat that Chiefs team, too. They had their own issues. That was a flawed team that did also play at various points like the best team in the NFL. They also played a team in Tampa Bay that it’s easy to forget now. Yeah, the Packers had that game at home, but the Packers went to Tampa early in that season and got their doors blown off by Tom Brady and the Bucks. That defense suffocated Aaron Rogers in a year he won MVP. So, it’s different. If the Packers, if the Packers end up winning like 13, 14 games and they have this weird Browns loss and they lose, you know, a road game here or there, but they beat the Eagles, they beat the Ravens at the end of the year. Now, that win might not look as good, you know, when it happens in December. They’re probably going to be out of the playoffs by then, but they’re going to have the Lions again. They’re going to have the Vikings twice. We’ll see how good those wins are when they come, if they come. I just don’t know who you look around at and go, “Well, that team, they’re they’re not going to beat themselves. The Rams already did it. They had a field goal block to lose a game.” And the Buccaneers have been trying to lose these games at the end and they just have miraculously pulled them out. I I don’t I don’t believe that team is the best team in the NFC right now. Baker Mayfield is playing at a really high level. I think if you had to give an MVP out, he would be the MVP. I don’t think in week 10 we’re going to be having that same conversation. So strive for more Green Bay Packers. Yes, certainly that’s out there, but they don’t they don’t have to be incredible right now. In fact, we’ve seen over the years teams who look incredible in October fade where it’s like, “Oh man, they they really did peak too early.” This team is is really really talented right now. We have seen them play at a level against really good teams that I think only the Chiefs frankly can say that they have done too. And they did it against the Lions as well. But the Lions they have they were other other than the game before the Chiefs game other than the Packers game. They had looked like the best team over the last month. They had been the best team. The Colts like do you really buy the Colts? That’s an AFC team. But look at the NFC. That’s it. The Seahawks. Well, the Seahawks have two losses. Seeing being, you know, being able to beat themselves. Sam Darnold playing out of his mind. Are you Are you afraid of that of that Seattle team? I’m not. Now, there is one key way that the Packers can get better. That has nothing to do with how well they execute. It is a matter of tweaking their philosophy on offense. We’ll talk about that next on Locked on Packers. Nobody likes paying rent, but if you must, you might as well get something for it. That’s where Built comes in. Built is changing the game by turning your rent payments into real rewards you can actually use. When you pay rent through Built, you can earn flexible points that can be redeemed toward hundreds of hotel, airlines, and future rent payments, your next lift, ride, and more. But built isn’t just about rent. It’s about rewarding you around your entire neighborhood. Whether you’re grabbing food at your local restaurant or heading to the gym, you can still be earning rewards. Built has made everyday life feel more rewarding. 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They are a below average running team on early downs, and an elite passing team on early downs. So, what do you want your team to do? Do you want them to throw the ball on early downs or do you want them to run the ball on early downs? Now, they are very good at play action. They’re an elite play action team. The play action game is so back. Jordan Love was six of nine for over a 100red yards against the the Bengals on Sunday with a TD. The play action game has been excellent for the Packers this season. It is back in a big way. They they went away from it and in the offseason it seemed like it was a a dedicated thing that Matt Lafur is like, “We still got to find ways to use this. We still have to do this cuz it is such an easy button to press and this team is really good at it. But you don’t have to run as much as the Packers run to make it effective. And and let’s just set aside the fact that historical data says you don’t have to run a lot or well to make play action work. And and somewhat ironically, Matthew Stafford’s Lions teams are the perfect example of that. And then he goes to the McVey teams that are awesome at the play action game and and they kind of abandon it for a while. They won a Super Bowl without really having to rely on it. And now they’re back. They are so back on play action. So let’s set that part for the side for a second. The Packers are really good at this thing that they don’t do very often. They are 23rd in neutral pass rate. So on first and second down when the game is in doubt 23rd and how often they throw the ball and I I would understand it if what they’re doing instead is running into a bunch of light boxes, but that’s not really what they’re doing. They’ve been good running into light boxes. Josh Jacobs averages 4.7 yards per carry when he’s facing seven or fewer defenders. When they’re facing heavy boxes, he’s averaging less than two yards per carry. And he still has 20 attempts into heavy boxes. Now, the Packers cannot you just look, you cannot be predictable. Like, if a team is going to get into a heavy box, you can’t just say, “Well, we’re always going to pass.” Getting into any of those extremes is problematic. But think about think about the 2011 Packers. Think about the 2010 or the 2012 Packers. Those teams could not run the football, but they had really good offenses and and really good play action games because play action is really more about what it looks like. Are you marrying the run and the pass as opposed to are you running the ball effectively? You just don’t have to run the ball that effectively. to have a good playaction game. And the Packers right now, frankly, are just running the ball too much. Most of Josh Jacobs attempts are coming against either neutral boxes or light boxes, and that is good, right? But you can’t be 5050 in in on on early downs running passing when your passing is not only so much more valuable relative to everyone else’s passing game, but just so much more valuable than the run game in a vacuum, like value for value, play for play. The passing game is just more valuable. And by the way, the running game from Josh Jacobs at least when he’s facing normal boxes, quote unquote normal boxes, he’s only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. So if you’re getting decent looks to run into and not running effectively, find something else to do. And that thing to do is throw the ball. Jordan Love, look, I understand there have been some questions about the pass protection. Even in this game on Sunday, there were some issues with pass protection against not a very good defensive front. And then in the second half, Trey Hendrickson goes out. You still allowed a pressure rate in the mid20s. That’s not terrible, but it’s also not great. Zack Tom said he blacked out in the second half because he was in so much pain. this offense has to tilt more to throwing the ball. And we’ve talked about it before. If you look at the, you know, the pass rate over expected over the the course of Matt Lafllor’s career has gone down every single year he’s been the coach. The highest it was was 2019 and the lowest it was was last year when they were the most runheavy offense in the NFL. Part of that is the Jordan Love injury. Part of that is they had to play, you know, two games with Malik Willis, two full games and then also two half games. But Matt Laflur wants balance. He knows the He knows what the data says. He knows the numbers say you don’t have to have a good or uh volume-based run game to have a good play action game. He wants to do it. He wants to run the ball. And I don’t I’m not saying don’t run the ball. 5050 is the wrong split. 6040 would be a better split. And Mike McCarthy at the end of his his tenure, it got too far the other way. They were like 65 68 70% and it was at they would the the famous thing with Mike McCarthy or maybe infamous is he’d run the ball twice on the first drive, it wouldn’t work and then they wouldn’t run the ball the rest of the game. That was always the Mike McCarthy. I don’t think that’s good either. And they’re they’re really good offenses. Like if you look at, you know, the best offenses, the Lions have been the most runheavy offense in the league this year. They’re a really good offense. The Seahawks have been one of the most runheavy teams in the league this year. Really good offense. In fact, they’re the only two offenses better throwing the ball on early downs than the Packers. And yet, they run more on early downs than the Packers. So, there is something to the teams that that that defenses know this team will and can run the ball on early downs. That makes it easier to throw the ball on early downs. But I I think frankly all of those teams. Now the Lions, it’s different because Jir Gibbs can rip off explosive runs. The Packers don’t have that guy. Running the ball is not a bad thing in a vacuum. Running the ball when you can’t create explosives. Now there’s a problem. Like the the Lions can call a run on third and 10 because they can get eight, they can get 12, they can get 16, they can get 60 from Jir Gibbs. A third and eight run from the Packers is going to get you five, maybe six. And then Matt Laflur is not going to go on fourth down. Dan Campbell is going to go on fourth down. Now I understand, look, Dan Campbell maybe not the most popular guy in the NFL right now. Brian Branch suspended for taking a swing on Juju Smith Schustster. That dude just continues to be an absolute clown. Was drafted in 2023. He’s been fined a dozen times and now suspended. And then he was playing the victim like, “Oh yeah, he got clipped. Is a bad play.” You don’t have to act like that. You don’t have to act like that. It’s all in the game. The game is the game. And you acted like a an idiot and you got suspended. There’s an acronym for that I can think of. Four letters. This This would not have to be a major change for the Packers. they can they can keep their offense more play action. They have not reached the limit. Like this is something we have talked with Aaron Shots about. There is no one in the NFL that has reached the point where they they use play action so much that there is diminishing returns and its efficiency. Play action is an easy button. Use it. And Matt Laflur is an expert at creating playaction design. getting the ball to Tucker Craft in space, creating big plays and and explosive plays. Jordan Love throwing the ball more than 10 yards down the field this season has been outstanding. He’s been the number one quarterback in the NFL from a clean pocket this year. When throwing the ball down the field, more than 10 yards down the field, he’s got a 136 passer rating with five touchdowns and no picks. He’s averaging 12 and a half yards an attempt on throws 10 or more yards down the field. Ridiculous. Ridiculous. Let Jordan Love cook. Now, in order to cook, he’s going to need protection. The offensive line is banged up. Injuries abound. We’ll talk about that next on Locked on Packers. We’re in the thick of it in the NFL. And right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets with the NFL and FanDuel. Well, you can bet on anything, but you know, it’s the NFL. This is an NFL show. That’s right. Pick a bet, put down five bucks, and if it hits, you’ll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Right now, the Packers 6 and a half point favorites in the desert against the Cardinals. The total 44 and a half. We don’t know who the quarterback’s going to be. Is it going to be Jacobe Brassette? Does that make the offense better or worse? Marvin Harrison Jr. dealing with a concussion. Does that mean he’s going to seems like he’s not going to play? We’ll see. So whether you’re a casual fan or love diving into the stats, FanDuel makes the game day experience so much better. So what are you waiting for? Visit FanDuel.com to download the FanDuel app today to get started. A number of key updates on the injuries I mentioned. Zack Tom saying he blacked out in the second half. Um, it is it is crazy because Matt Lafleur said he did not suffer a setback. So, the injury didn’t get worse, but it is so bad and so painful the oblique injury. And think about it, your core strength, like imagine imagine you just had like a a strained muscle or a cracked rib and you just like lean against a wall and push. You can’t laugh. He’s I mean he’s got to be in pain sitting doing nothing. And the thought of blocking 300 pound guys running at you full speed it it is terrifying. I I don’t know if he should be out there. And I said during the game he shouldn’t be out there. The problem is you finally got your preferred starters back. Aaron Banks at left guard, Jordan Morgan at right guard. By the way, I I mentioned this yesterday. The numbers came out. Uh Shawn Ryan really just only played that one series. Jordan Morgan is the preferred starter at right guard. So, unless and until Anthony Belton can come back, they’re going to have to play Zack Tom. This was their buy. And now, me personally, I would have just especially in a situation where Trey Hendrickson is really going to line up against the left tackle all the time, even when he’s the better player. Like, I I would have I would have given him some time off. I would have said, “Darien Canard, come on down.” Zack Tom must have said, “I can do it.” But it I mean it is crazy. And and look, I when I was talking about it during the game, I try and remind myself, you know, the the physical feats that these guys are are able to accomplish. I was saying during the game, not Zack Tom is playing horrible. Zack Tom is not healthy. And I was saying get him out of there because he’s clearly not healthy. You need Zack Tom healthy. You need him healthy for the Pittsburgh Steelers. You need him healthy for the Philadelphia Eagles. You need him healthy for, you know, the the Detroit Lions. If sitting him for a week or two is going to get him to 100%. You can’t have him at 70 75%. If he’s blacking out, he’s in so much pain. It’s just not going to work. And okay, you know, like they get a mini buy off the Thursday with Thanksgiving. That’s six weeks away. And what are the risks of him making it worse? I have to think if you’re compensating, there’s other, you know, there’s all sort of biomechanical reasons why you wouldn’t want to do this. Your core strength is everything in football for for like every position all the time. I don’t understand that at all. But they don’t really have a lot of good options right now. So, I would be fine with Jordan Morgan being the right tackle and letting Shawn Ryan be the right guard. But, but Maybe they think they’re not putting him at further risk. It seems crazy to me. But they also played Jaden Reed with apparently a Jones fracture. I stress fracture something. Some bad fracture that they had to have surgery for. I don’t I don’t understand it and I’m not going to pretend to understand it. They did get good news. Javon Bullard, not a concussion. It was a stinger. He said he’s good. We’ll see about the practice schedule this week. Lucas Van Ness for someone that was carted off kind of a best case scenario. Avoided major injury. Doesn’t mean he doesn’t have any injury. We’ll see if he can make it give it a go here moving forward. It happened on the sack. Unfortunately, that was a that was a really big play in the game. He his ability has added been it has been so additive to have that other guy because Rashan Garry doesn’t have to bring it every game. He brought it last game. He led the team in pressures last game. So, you have to you have to be able to have waves of pass rushers, especially when teams are going to allocate so many resources to Michael Parsons. To have another guy who can just win one-on ones, is is incredibly valuable to this team. You hope he can get back and you hope he can get back to 100% soon. Um, one one bright spot too I want to mention, Warren Brinson. He was the highest graded Packers defender, was a healthy scratch to start the season, first month of the season, comes out and in his first playing time, comfortably outplays anything we’d seen from Nir Stakows, he’s someone that he’s got to play moving forward. He’s got to be part of this rotation. And I do think he’s more suited to that three, four outside, you know, defensive end sort of body type, but they’re going to need him on the inside. And, you know, he can make some he can make some things happen. He had a couple pressures against the the Bengals. I know their offensive line is not very good, but they’re going to play plenty of offensive lines that aren’t very good. And you really just need to steal some snaps. Steal some snaps for Devonte Wyatt when he comes back. Steal some snaps for Carl Brooks and Kobe Wooden because asking those guys, undersized guys, to hold up for 60 minutes, especially against some of these power run teams, is just going to be tough. Now, the Packers do lead the league just by the old school metrics in uh in yards per game allowed on the ground. They’re giving up a shade over 70 yards. Part of that is they’re winning all of these games. They’re the only team in the NFL who’s been up double digits in every game they’ve played. Is that super chill that they’ve only won three of the five games that they played? No. That’s that’s I I joked online that that is a very Bengals or excuse me, a very Ravens thing to be true about them. But it is in fact true. If they can if they can get Zack Tom healthy though, that’s the big one here. Everything else is funible. Everything else is workable because you’ve got such a deep team. I’m not worried about the corners. I’m just not. This pass rush is going to is going to be what we what we thought it could be coming into the year and what we saw it be early in the season. Teams are using the quick passing game. Jeff Hley is going to find some more answers for that. They’re going to they’re going to have to do some more coverage disguise. They’re going to have to be a little bit more creative like they were last year. Play a little bit more too high. I think play a little bit more cover two. So, you’re rerouting at the line of scrimmage. Oh, you want to you want to try quick game? All right. You’re going to have to start playing more press. And even if it’s zone, not man. Let’s see it. Let’s see what the adjustment is from Jeff Halfley. I think I think one is coming. All right. Back tomorrow. Lily Zhao um gets us ready. We’ll have our crossover Thursday. Um yeah, I think we’re going to do an interview on Friday, but we’ll see. Figure that all out. Um follow me on the social media. Peter_Bowski. Follow the podcast on the social medias as well. subscribe our our Wednesday squad show. Um, normal time, I think 7 uh 7 central, 7 Lambo time uh for our squad show on Wednesday night. And uh let me let me think about this here. Yeah, that should that should work, I think. Um I’ll I’ll confirm. Follow me on the social medias for sure. And also if you subscribe on YouTube, you’ll get the alert anyway and you’ll know for sure that it’s going up so you can stay locked on Packers.

It wasn’t a pretty win against the Cincinnati Bengals, but who are the teams Green Bay Packers fans are worried about right now? The Packers are fine! Plus, one tweak they can make to level up the offense, and critical injury news.

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Peter Bukowski, co-founder of The Leap, brings you a daily look at the Green Bay Packers year round with Locked On Packers! Go beyond the latest injury news into what you’re seeing on the field, how it works, and how it might change with new players or against a division rival. It’s the podcast for fans who know what happened, they want to know why and how!

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FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)