3YardsPerCarry Dolphins vs Browns preview
And we’re on. This is three yards per carry. This is the preview of Cleveland Browns Miami Dolphins in Cleveland in what will be 65 mile per hour winds. The weather’s going to be nice. It’s going to be 65 degrees, but 65 mile perph winds and 95% chance of rain. It’s going to be an absolute mess out there. There’s some things that I kind of like in the Dolphins favor. There’s some things I don’t like in the Dolphins favor in this game. I think Chris has been out there on Twitter saying that he kind of likes Miami in this game. We’ll get into it, but first, this show is brought to you by Thompson Cigar. Go to Thompsonigar.com and use the promo code three yards per carry. It’s the name of this podcast. Use the number three. The number three yards per carry and you get a special discount. And of course, 305 800 pain, which is essentially the the theme of this season. Better Business Bureau accredited with an A+ rating. Your car accident and personal injury specialists. Fast connections with trusted doctors and attorneys. Always ready to take your call 247. Again, 305800 PIN. 305800 PAIN. All right, I’ll start here. Chris, the Browns have the worst quarterback play in the entire league. And it got worse last week. Okay. But if you look at their home games, and this is going to go out the window because, and we’re going to start here when the Dolphins are on defense. The Jets have the worst quarterback play. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet. Justin Fields. I mean, I was at that game and he had minus 9 yards passing. Can we be serious? It’s 2025, not 1961. Yeah. Uh Justin Fields has the most unfortunate stat of all time. And when I heard it, I’m like, this is a madeup stat. I looked it up and it’s like, yeah, yeah, that’s it’s actually legitimate. He’s 0 and 26 when the opposing team scores 21 points. 20 points alone. Yeah, it’s amazing. Like, that’s not And that is a quarterback stat, by the way. That’s that’s rough. Okay. So, yeah, that is not good. Uh, so Chris, you’ve been I’m gonna start with Chris here on this because he’s been he’s been out there and he’s uh he kind of likes what’s going on as far as this matchup is is concerned. Mhm. They have the the worst quarterback play statistically, although Simon brings up a spectacular point with Justin Fields, but they’re very good against the pass. They can rush the passer. They run the ball well. So, this seems like it’s a matchup of Quinchan Junkkins versus our defense. And I guess two with throwing the ball short in the Dolphin running game against their their defense. Seems like an even matchup to me and seems like Vegas agrees because they have installed the Cleveland Browns as favorites in this game. Uh, how do you see it in their favor concerning def uh Dolphin defense versus the Cleveland Browns offense, Chris? Yeah. Yeah, this is um so first off from a high level view uh getting this out there, you know, to spoil it. Yeah, I will be picking the Dolphins at the end of the show. Um and in fact, I’m not listening again, man. Um, and in fact, you know, if uh if if I hadn’t already used my Survivor pick on the Jets game, which I might have, um, because, you know, in a Survivor League, you don’t you want to very be very choosy about where you pick a dog like the Dolphins to win a game because they’re so unreliable at that. I think this would be a survivor pick almost for me. Um, for them to go up in Cleveland and and win. These are two bad teams. They’re both one and five. Let I mean we know we know that this is this is really uh these are a battle of the awful but um but as far as the Dolphins defense is concerned I think that um it boils down to one thing for them on defense and I know that they’re they’re bad at a bunch of different things but the cascade of failures uh starts you know at a very certain place and that’s on first down. Uh the Dolphins are the worst defense in the league or have the lowest percentage of third and longs of any defense in the league. Um uh as far as their plays are concerned, uh the Titans are up there with them, but it’s it’s really bad, right? So um that all starts actually on first down because they’re not, believe it or not, they’re they’re not bad on second down. And the reason that that’s important is because if you think about situationally what first down entails, it is the highest run pass conflict of any situation that you’re right. And run pass conflict doesn’t mean simply that you um that you you know have the highest percentage of runs. Uh no, it means that it’s really dealer’s choice. It’s the play caller’s choice. the play caller has the largest amount of freedom and the widest array of plays to choose from on first down. Uh the entire play sheet is available to them. Uh so, you know, I think that um if you look at that, this you’re starting to see the reason the Dolphins are bad on first down. They’re relying on so many young players, uh inexperienced players, uh players that are new with each other. Um the football IQ is not very strong for the Dolphins right now. when the entire, you know, pantheon of plays are available to the opposing offense and there’s a lot of run pass conflict. Uh you can see that in their successes on second down when you start to whittle down situations. If the play if the playbook is like a large pie, then second down, you’re starting to get into scenarios where second and 10 is very different from second and five, second and one is very different from second and 10 and second and five. um you start to say, “Well, I can I can move that out of the way. That’s that’s not a real possibility or I can cut out this and say that’s not really a possibility.” First down everything is available. And they’re they’re really struggling on that. Um now on the other side of it, the Cleveland Browns are the worst first down offense in the league. And it’s very specific because they are by far the worst passing offense on first down in the league. They uh have an average net. I think it’s a um sorry, an adjusted net net yardage of four yards on first down in the passing game, which is just truly abysmal. Uh it’s not getting any better for them. And you know what’s happening now with these gale force winds and this terrible weather that we’re expecting that makes it even worse. So what you’re doing is you’re taking away that uncertainty for the Dolphins players that have been struggling with uncertainty on first down. They’ve been struggling with trying to find the tells and the nuances, you know, like having a Kas Campbell who knows that from a guy’s stance, from the formation, from the spacing, from that motion over there, uh, and based on, you know, the situation in the field position, they’ll be able to tell kind of what’s coming. The old Zack Thomas trick, right? Well, the Dolphins don’t have anybody like that. They have a real uh der of football IQ, I think, on this um on this defense. So, you need to make things easier on them. And in that weather and facing as abysmal of a pass offense as the Cleveland Browns are on first down, you’re going to do that for them. You’re going to whittle it down for them. You’re going to give them more certainty. And so, it’s going to get easier for the Dolphins on first down. And because it’s easier for the Dolphins on first down, the whole cascade doesn’t get started where now you have the the worst situational situational football on third down of any team in the league. They have I think it’s um it’s first or second in their uh in terms of third and and and distance. So, I think that once you start at first down, if you’re defending that better, then the defense is going to play better on all the downs and the defense is the reason the Dolphins are losing. I mean, duh. We know that the the offense is good enough to have won a bunch of these games. We know that. This I’m not I’m not revealing anything um to anybody here. So if you do that, then you’ve kind of you’ve kind of given the Dolphins a pass on the thing that the other teams are able to exploit so well against the Dolphins defense. And from there it becomes a matter of you know, yeah, okay, with Gale Force winds and terrible and terrible uh, you know, weather, you’re going to have the Cleveland Browns run game, which obviously is decent. It’s not good. It’s still not good on first down, but it’s it’s decent. uh versus a terrible uh run defense for the Dolphins. But also on the Dolphins offense, you have the Dolphins offense with their run run offense. I think the Dolphins run offense is more creative. I think if you know that a run is coming from the Dolphins, you still don’t know where because the Dolphins have the ability to get out to the perimeter and they have the ability to do all these different tricky. After all, Mike McDaniel is a run coordinator, right? That’s his that’s his experience. everybody, every coach that even the ones that don’t really rate Mike McDaniel respect his uh ability as a run coordinator and ability to uh to to create uh good spacing and misdirection in the run game. I don’t know that the Cleveland Browns have that, you know, I don’t know that they have that going for them the same way. So, if you eliminate the uncertainty to where you know that the run is all you have to go for with the Cleveland Browns, I don’t think they’ve got it. I don’t think they’re going to do it, not even at home. So, uh, so yeah, I would I would say that this is actually a matchup that favors the Dolphins where I think a lot of people are just falling into sort of the superficial trap of um saying, you know, hey, good running back, good running game, Dolphins, terrible run defense. Oh, easy, the Dolphins lose. I don’t think it’s I don’t think it’s going to play out that way. Simon, uh, what was the question? Yeah. You’re thinking as far as the the matchup and who does it actually favor on Sunday? Cleveland Browns offense versus the Dolphin defense is what it’s a game that the Dolphins should win. This is the 2025 Miami Dolphins. I Yeah, I have seen Cleveland play twice this season and I saw them absolutely snaffle down the Green Bay Packers offense in week three to the point where a pretty good offensive front could not contain that pass rush. Um to the point where Quinchon Judskin started to get his groove. Now, with the wins as well, uh I think that plays into Cleveland’s favor, actually. Um I think the Dolphins should win. Whether or not I think the Dolphins will win is another question. I I I think it’s whoever establishes the run better. I think two things about the weather. I think it it helps it become a run game, but it does help it and I think that helps Cleveland in many regards because I think they’ve got better offensive line. But I do think it helps Miami in that tour is not going to be dropping back to throw 25 times and not getting crunched by Miles Garrett Ed on that defensive line. So if it becomes a smash you in the mouth uh run game, who has the best running attack? Well, I would take Devon Chan over Quinchon Judkins, but then I would take Cleveland’s defense over Miami’s defense, especially against the run by a long chalk. um especially when you throw in you know those interior defensive players who are very good when you throw in Carson Swinginger who’s having a really good year at a linebacker obviously Jerome Baker is still there uh for the Browns Grant Delpit is playing really well um so yeah I think my concern would be that if it just turns into a punch you in the mouth punch you in the mouth punch you in the mouth run game because the weather dictates that you’re just not going to be able to throw it that as much as perhaps you would and also I Did Cleveland keep it close? Because I I you know, you look at it, you think, yeah, Miami should probably win this like 2713, something like that. 2710, but I think that’s what Cleveland did to to Green Bay is they just kept it close. They kept forcing three and outs. They kept just playing real tough on defense. They kept the explosives with the in the run game and all of a sudden, you know, they they chipped away with field goals and field goals and field goals, got a touchdown, and then, you know, defensively they’re just able to close it out. And I think, you know, if the Dolphins can get a lead, um I mean, I say this as a team that went 17 nothing up against Carolina, ended up losing, but um I think if they can get a lead, I think they’ll win. Uh I would not like to be in a windy weather game and could chase the game by putting the ball in the air knowing that Miles Garrett is is on the other side of the ball as you know, one of the great pass rushers of a generation. So, um, look, I think the Dylan Gabriel thing, um, is interesting and I don’t think he’s got great weapons to throw to. You know, Jerry Judy’s kind of fallen back off the cliff that he climbed back out of. Howard Fanning’s playing well. There’s questions over whether Ando is going to go. Um but you know that two titan setup and if they can get that establish that running game I I could I could see a scenario where the Dolphins found that pretty difficult to to contain. And if Judkins has the same kind of you know play that we saw Rico Dad have and we saw um Kimani Vidal have last week then the Dolphins could really be in trouble. But I think it’s a game they should win if I’m going to be honest. Yeah. As far as the you know and we’re going to get to it on the other side of the break. the Dolphin offense versus the Cleveland Browns defense. And this is where I see some things uh differently than than Chris. But yeah, I I tend to agree that yeah, the Cleveland Browns passing game is just not very good. And Jooko looks like he’s not going to play. So that’s going to reduce them, you know, by one as far as a factor. And I know we keep talking about this every week and I know Anthony Weaver already said this like, “Hey, yeah, but we did have, you know, 26 carries for 60 yards. We did that.” He ignored the other seven for 80, uh, you know, which is is a problem. But I think most of their problems are not to say that they have great talent because I think they have enough talent to be uh below average on defense and not worst in the league, which is what they are. They’re at 31st pretty much across the board. Oddly enough, the the Dallas Cowboys somehow are worse than the than the Miami Dolphins defensively. And I don’t know how I’ve watched them play and I guess, you know, it’s it’s my bias. Um I look at the Dolphins and I just see calamity and I see the Cowboys and I guess Dak Prescott and that offense is masking a lot of the problems. So, they seem more entertaining, right? But, uh, yeah, I I look at it and, yeah, I do feel that that’s a a pretty big advantage when their quarterback is just not going to threaten you and then the weather is going to do half the the work for you, right? So, yeah, I do tend to agree there, but the danger is on the other side of the ball, and we’ll get to that when we go to break. And we will talk about all the the the the trade rumors, fake and whatnot that’s out there. But first, these words and we are back. All right, here’s my concern. The Dolphin offense, I felt against the Chargers, the more I dug into that game, I felt that there was going to be stuff to be had for the Dolphin offense against the Chargers and I kind of liked them. And I and and I told you on the podcast, Chris, that only a curse season was going to have me pick the the Chargers. And that’s why I picked them to to kick a walk-off field goal. And oddly enough, that’s exactly what happened. But while the Carolina Panthers had a glaring neon red advantage, meaning their two defensive tackles, which are I don’t know if they’re top 10 in the league, but maybe close against the two worst guards in the league. That’s a pretty big advantage, right? I felt like it was kind of a clean slate against the against the Chargers and the Dolphin offense was going to have every single opportunity to win that game. In this game, I think you’re cutting the Dolphin offense almost in half. There will be no no deep passing game, no threat to the third level, which the Dolphins have enjoyed since Tyreek Hill has been gone. And in case we haven’t noticed, they’ve tried these deep shots. They’ve hit one in each game. One for 46 yards, one for 45 yards. That’s it. It’s not a trend. It’s only two games, but it’s promising at least. That’s gone. That’s not happening. The intermediate passing game based on the defense that the Cleveland Browns are going to play, I don’t think it’s going to be available to them. So, it’s going to be one of those one yard a dot games, which means to good at that. He’s been he basically played an entire season last year doing that. Is that going to be enough? So, you’re essentially going to go out there with half of an offense throwing it one yard and running the football. Is that going to be enough to generate points? Essentially, you’re going to have to be completely clean. That’s my concern. And I think you’re essentially being backed into a corner where there is no opportunity to win by multiple scores. You’re going to have to win by one score. And curse teams are going to curse teams. Your thoughts, Simon, on on my analysis of this Dolphin offense is essentially going to be playing uh with one hand in this game. Your thoughts? Um, if I’m going to be brutally honest, Alf, you started this question by saying Chris. So I sort of tuned out because I thought you were asking Chris the question and then all of a sudden when you threw me I was just reading something on Twitter about the Dolphins and traded Bradley Chub and then all of a sudden you said my name and I was like oh [ __ ] I haven’t listened to the last 30 seconds because you literally said so Chris and I like it to me. I don’t listen to be honest I don’t listen to myself either. So, no, it wasn’t that. It was I would have obviously listened to you if you thought the question was like double-headed, but as you mentioned Chris’s name so powerfully at the start of your your brief silicate, I just thought here’s a good opportunity just to look at trade rumors because that’s something you mentioned. Therefore, slightly zoned out and it was like being at a university lecture when you suddenly have not been concentrating and then the lecturer goes, “Mr. Clancy, what do you think of this book?” and you’re like, “Fuck, what book?” So, yeah, I could have just blithered on about a load of old nonsense that had nothing to do with the question. I think in being honest, I’ve shown my true character and coming forward and say, “You know what? I I simply wasn’t listening because I thought you were going to the to my learned friend.” All right, Chris, then you handle it. What was the question again? Dolphin offense. I I will I will reduce the the the my three minutes iloquy today. Eight minute questions aren’t a big aren’t a good thing either. That’s the other thing. Dolphin offense is going to be playing with one hand. No deep passing game allowed. No intermediate passing game allowed due to schematic issues. So it’s going to be a one-yard A dot offense with a running game. So, you’re reducing what is actually good about the Miami Dolphins and essentially having the having them play with one hand tied behind their back. How is that good against that good defense? Your thoughts, Chris? I think well for for one thing I would say uh I would draw attention to the fact that um you mentioned before about Cleveland’s pass rush and the Dolphins offensive line and and clearly that is a that is a mismatch that that could play a big factor um here but the Dolphins have been fairly decent at the start of these games right we’ve we’ve kind of you know kind of a first half um they did get to 17 point lead against the Panthers. Uh we both talked about how in the Chargers game they were, you know, was looking all right in uh in that first half and then then the wheels fell off in the third quarter. Um if the Dolphins are all right at the start of the game, that starts to eliminate the possibility that the that the uh Cleveland pass rush can just completely take over. Um, I think that another factor is you look at quarterback experience. Uh, Tua and this Dolphins offense are no strangers to trying to make hay when they know that the deep passing game is not there. It’s all they’ve been facing for two years now is they they’ve been unable to to make the deep passing game work uh because of the the way that uh defenses are playing them. So, they’ve had to make hay uh underneath and um and the Dolphins have short options. They have Devon Aan c able to catch balls. They have Darren Waller now able to catch balls. Um they have some short underneath options if the weather is playing a big factor in this game. And they also have the better quarterback uh for navigating things like that. So, you know, I, you know, flip that question around on the Cleveland Browns and how do they succeed, you know, at all to any degree in the passing game, uh, with Dylan Gabriel at quarterback? Well, I think the Dolphins can get a little bit more going on offense under those circumstances. The other thing to consider is what I already brought up, which is the fact that Mike McDaniel is a run coordinator, and he is a particularly creative run coordinator. um really well buttoned up, which I don’t think Miami’s passing game is as buttoned up, but uh but I think that their run game really is as far as spacing and um the thought that goes into each play and angles and um and everything everything associated. I think the Dolphins are a more dangerous running attack that can be more boom or bust. You know, we’ve talked about that before. They have the highest percentage of runs for loss over the years that Mike McDaniel has been in this league, but they also have one of the highest percentage of 10 plus yard runs. So, the Dolphins run attack, if this makes any sense, behaves more like a total offense as opposed to just a piece of the offense. I don’t know if that makes sense, but that’s the that’s the nature of the Dolphins run attack is it so boom or bust. it’s more like it profiles more like a total offense. And so if you have this game where the run offense has to become the total offense, uh then yeah, I think the Dolphins have a higher selection of they can get it to the outside, speed it to the perimeters with speed, um and with play design, they can also, you know, run that inside outside zone um and have some success that way. So, I think that they have more options available to them in the run game if things really do get one-sided. And then even in that setting, I trust Tua a lot more than I would trust Dylan Gabriel to hit those underneath and not pay for it, you know, to hit to to to get done the things that actually do need to be done in the passing game. So, you know, again, I think that that I can’t help but that think that that’s another area that favors the Dolphins, particularly when you’re looking at the ability of Achan and Waller to uh to impact the game in those underneath areas and in those specialty situations like in the red zone. Simon, yeah, I agree. Look, I as much as we’ve joked about him throughout the season, I I think that the Darren Waller factor is really important actually. Um, I think that and joked about back him for people that haven’t listened or choose to listen to what they want to listen to. Um, it was the evolution of the situation rather than the player himself. Um, albeit the injuries were a concern. Um, but I think that’s a match up that Miami can infiltrate, especially if the weather is the way that it’s going to be. Now, the question would be, you know, what does Cleveland do with those backend defenders? they get them close to the line because they they don’t trust the tour can throw the ball over his head because of a strong wind and let’s you know an under average um under average arm strength but I think Waller physically athletically you know he can win some of those battles especially at the second level you want to get matched up on you know on on those safeties on the nickel corner um and I think that you know having you know if you’re tour and you’re seeing him lined up against Ronnie Hickman you’re tour and you see him lined up against Rachel Jenkins you’re tour and you see him lined up against Devin Bush or our friend Jerome Baker. Those are match ups you want to absolutely 100% exploit. And I think if the Dolphins are to win this, they’re going to have to try and keep a cap uh on things in terms of the run game. They can’t, you know, they’re up to 400 yards almost over the last two games, they’re going to have to try and keep Judkins under 100 yards rushing. And I think, you know, if Darren Waller leaves this game having caught eight, 10, 12 passes, that won’t be a bad thing for for this offense as, you know, and just as you know, we go back to those old NFL films uh videos of um uh Hank Stram talking about, you know, metriculating the ball down the field. That’s almost what Miami just need to do is just gently move the ball down the field. It doesn’t have to be special. It doesn’t have to be explosive. doesn’t have to be, but just use the weapons you have against the the holes that they have in that defense. Ball coming out quickly. Don’t allow Mars Garrett to to tee off. And I’m interested to see the you know, you want to see a couple of deep drops because I really do want to see how, you know, Patrick Paul who’s developing into an upper echelon or left tackle in this league. You want to see how he’s, you know, you want to see him against the best of the best. Um, but I think, you know, Darren Waller could be an absolute key for the Dolphins to win this game of the weekend. And like I said, if he’s getting 10 12 balls, that’s not a bad thing. So, so I think we agree across the board. I think the fantasy players are reading into this. If you have Jaylen Wadd and you have Darren Waller, Darren Waller is the start over Jaylen Wadd. You would agree? Um, would I agree that because Darren, let me give you a little background. Jaylen Wadd has become since Tyreek Hill got injured has become one of the best fantasy wide receivers in football. Oh, okay. Is this the spot where you bench him and you play a Darren Waller at tight end? Sorry, I thought you were talking about an actual game. Well, that’s what I was confused about. Look, I I think he’s also going up against a really really good corner in Denzel Ward. You know, Ward’s going to go where where Ward goes. I I think if you’re a fantasy player, then Darren Waller would be the person I’d be choosing to be my fantasy tight end rather than wasting it on a guy who’s going to have to play in the wind with a pop gun quarterback with a pass rush that’s coming down the field that’s not going to allow you to hit the, you know, the the top of your drop and step up and and and rip it going against one of the best corners in the league. That to me is not a situation that that seems to all go well for for um success for Jayla Mod. Yeah, I tend to agree. Uh, Chris, you’re on board with that one, right? Well, you Yeah, I’m I’m I actually have Jaylen Waddle in Fantasy and I will not be starting. Yeah, I got him too. I got him too and I and I I benefited the last two weeks and I got Darren Waller on my bench behind uh Travis Kelce and I’m thinking of playing Waller this week and benching Jaylen Waddle this season. I have Trey McBride, so I have I don’t have So, you’re you’re golden. You’re golden. Although, you don’t get many touchdowns. Uh that that’s that’s that’s the the Trey McBride curse is that he’s going to catch you 15 balls a game, but he’s not going to get in the end zone for whatever reason. Uh this cursed season is not without its intrigue, Simon. And I’m going to go to you first on this because this has been a mystery. This has been a mystery since day one. Craigman revealed cryptically, I might add. Oh, yeah. Uh Jason Sanders, he might not kick at all this season. I mean, what did he do? I thought he was only out a couple of weeks. What’s he done? Has he like had a leg amputated or something? What? Last time we saw of Jason Sanders was before the Jaguars preseason game. He was kicking a 60 yard field goal and he was doing his his pregame warm-up where he kicks like two kicks from 60, two kicks from 55, two from 45 and he moves all the way into 25 and then he runs into the the the tunnel, right? He kicked two from 60. He kicked one from 45, I believe. And then that’s when he was just walking around talking to Craig and he went into the tunnel, never to be heard from again. And they haven’t revealed what’s his problem. Nobody knows. And then Craigman was asked, “Hey, is this the week that Jason Sanders comes back?” And he goes, “He might not come back at all.” Whatever. Is he dead? Possibly. I mean, we joke like obviously I know he had the hip injury. There’s been no information as to whether or not he had any sort of procedure or whether or not it was like a, you know, a severe hip strain or, you know, what he actually did. Um, and I’d assume it was some sort of I mean, maybe he tore a muscle like really badly tore a muscle because obviously that kind of rotation of, you know, we don’t even know. I don’t think we know whether it’s kicking leg or plant leg at this point, do we? Or has that ever been established? Nobody knows anything. Yeah. because it could be just that kind of, you know, driving the the part leg into the ground. Um, or it could just be the kind of the endless rotational, you know, long field goals in practice and those sorts of things. But, I mean, the good thing is that, you know, at least in terms of his replacement, it hasn’t been, he says now, ahead of what’s likely to be a close game in the wind, we haven’t had a problem with Riley Patterson, um, who’s done a pretty decent job. So, uh, but think about the wins. Think about the wins. Exactly. Exactly. So, who knows? This could be the weekend where I come back. We come back on Monday and it’s like, you said Riley Patterson had done a good job. Yeah. And hey, I not for not for nothing. Nip and tuck game last last week against the Chargers. Riley Patterson did miss from 50 plus. He did. And that’s that’s usually where Jason Sanders shines. Yeah. Well, nobody’s kicking Jason 40 mph winds. Um, yeah, you know, that’s that’s just not a thing. Um, I think though that you’re hitting on something from a special team standpoint that for me is the true wild card here um in this game. And if the Dolphins do lose, uh, you know, this game, then I’m going to say special teams will have played a large part of that somehow. Um, that’s that would be my guess. Uh, I I have not been happy with the way that the Dolphins special teams have played. I think that they um they played a big part in losing that charging Chargers game. I think that Craig Aerman made a questionable decision not to uh not to kick a dirty ball on that um that last that last kickoff with 46 seconds left. Uh he even said today, you know, we got the exact placement that we wanted for that kick. um which I don’t think is I don’t think shows that you know you’re you’re on top of the league uh in that regard. Uh because I think that there are teams out there that have actually or figured out this new kickoff format and figured out what strategically is the best and they are performing the best. uh and the rest of the league is just kind of like dipping their toe in the water and they’re they’re making poor decisions and I think unfortunately the Dolphins are among them. Um now the the real monkey wrench though is that if you take away the kicking game, the field goal game because who’s kicking field goals in 40 mph winds? I’m sorry, it’s not going to happen. Right. Then unless behind you. Yeah. Well, right. Unless the wind is like going directly. No, it’s crosswind. I mean it’s just like crazy. Yeah. Okay. So, um so I think that uh you know the the real wild card there becomes like what happens to the offenses if kicking is not an option and now you’re in fourth downs and who do you do you trust Dylan Gabriel on fourth downs or do you trust you know to a tongue of Aaloa on fourth downs? Um, you know, and I think that, uh, if if the Dolphins defense, one of their big issues is that their pass rush hasn’t been able to get into it because they haven’t run across enough pass rush situations, then suddenly putting them into a situation where they’re going to have some they might have some fourth downs, you know, which is a pass rush situation. Um, and you know, there isn’t a big tall tree like Justin Herbert back there that you can’t quite chop down. It’s Dylan Gabriel. He’s tiny, right? So, um, you know, I think that, uh, I think that could play into the Dolphins favor again defensively. And I I I hesitate to say that because the Dolphins defense has been so terrible, but it does play into their favor. But also on the other flip side of that is, you know, coverage units and uh, and whether the Dolphins return unit versus their coverage unit, whether that will be an advantage for the Dolphins during the game. I just don’t know. I don’t know. that one thing I will finish by saying is it is a damn shame that Jason Sanders is not playing this year because with the changes to the kicking ball he’d have kicked a 65 yard by now like have you seen have you seen what these kickers are able to do everything that you knew about the kicking game add seven yards to it you know that’s that’s what’s happened this year and an excellent kicker themselves in Andre Schmidt yeah Well, you the Browns. Is that what you said? Yeah. So, he’s only missed twice this season. Both in the first game since then. He’s been absolutely But again, you know, the ultimate the ultimate leveling factor is just that weather like who can be a good kicker in Gale Force wins. Yeah. I think it’s ominous when you watch football games and you see that the the long snapper and and it’s happened in college, by the way. In college, there was an actual fist fight over a Kball. So, it’s I think it’s ominous in the NFL when you see that the long snapper and everybody’s running down there to get the ball and wrestle it away from the B boys, you know, like like obviously there’s something going on and they got to change this rule. I don’t know if you’re aware you’re aware of the rule, Simon, uh of what they changed this year. Every team has 60 balls and they’re essentially manicured. Uh they wax them. Like, come on, man. They got to stop doing this. It has to be legal. Double dry them. They wax them. They do everything. They do everything that, you know, a pitcher used to do to the baseball back in the 70s. Yeah. Which they made illegal. Yeah. You know, so all right, let’s talk about two things uh on the way out here and then we’ll give our predictions for this game. I’m still undecided, by the way, which way I’m going. Um first of all, to apology. Um what did you make of it? I I don’t think we spent too much time on this. Uh Jaylen Phillips then went out and threw water on a grease fire which is is all kinds of fun. Uh supposedly Jack Jones got in on the act. I guess uh he backed up too as well. Who knows what what’s what’s going on but uh what did you make of his apology Simon? He was contrite uh presidential I guess. Don’t care. Damage was kind of done dealt with in house. I’m sure there was some pretty you know some pretty pissed-off players and I’m sure there was a you know I just don’t think just the overall look, the optics generally just aren’t great. And this sort of [ __ ] doesn’t happen if you’re 5-1 or whatever. This doesn’t happen with Green Bay or with Detroit or with Kansas City or do you know what I mean? So, winning changes all of this, of course. Yeah. And then if we’re winning, he wouldn’t have been at the podium complaining about players not turning up to the meetings anyway. So, yeah. Yeah. Had they won that game, he would have been beaming from ear to ear, you know. Yeah. Right. Yeah. So, I don’t know if you want to add anything to this, Chris. He had plenty to say. I think it was I think he said what he needed to say. He was he was contrite. He didn’t mince I didn’t feel like some people felt like he minced words because he mentioned something about, you know, the being misconstrued by the media or whatever. Um, but I thought that he stepped up and and said all the right things. He he didn’t just say sorry, he said why exactly why he should be sorry about it, you know, which is which is a true apology in my opinion. Um, so you know, he did what he needed to do, but as you mentioned, it is a grease fire because, you know, the more you toss water on the grease fire, the worse it gets. And there is that quality going on where it go it went from Tua is saying the original thing to McDaniel being like, you know, balls in your court, guys. That’s y’all’s problem. That’s not my problem, which I felt like was a problem. And then the media raise a stank and then McDaniel comes back and he says, you know, I I had just heard about it when you asked me before about it. Tua said the wrong thing. Tua should not have done that. But also McDaniel made it worse even again by talking about how worthless essentially those playerled meetings are, which I think spits in the face of the players that are having them, right? Because there’s a reason they’re having them. Um and and then it it it also causes you to question why they feel the need to have them. And then it goes to Tua who is apologizing, saying all the right things, but then he’s asked a very hello, God bless them, you know, just a very simple, I think softball question. What are you guys getting out of these playerled meetings? You know, what what are they like? How do they go? And Tua steals up and says, protect the team. you know, that was his answer. And so that made it worse. That that to me, oh well, what is what is going on? So So these playerled meetings have something to do with, you know, internal that you don’t want to put out there now, you know. Yeah. And no one has to tell to give him a simple phrase like, you know, anything has to do with with the team, you know, I like to keep it inside the team, you know. Well, that’s but that’s but that’s what he did. But that itself was that itself was uh revealing. And then of course here comes Jaylen Phillips to you know just kamicazi in on the situation and say well too was actually right to call those those people out. And uh and then you know I I I didn’t hear what Jack Jones said but if he if he said something similar um this is a grease fire. This is the the the more attention it gets somehow, the more you answer to the first thing that came wrong, the worse it seems to get. And that’s that’s um that’s the way it goes with a one and five team, I guess. Yeah. When when the ship when the ship is sinking, don’t start fires. Have you seen this Pablo Toro story, by the way, that Michael Lombardi took a fundraising trip to Saudi Arabia two weeks before the uh Oh, wow. So the Saudis are buying a college football program. That’s pretty cool. Yeah, he left the he left the school to go and raise money in Saudi two weeks one season. Maybe he’s just trying to get money to pay off Bill’s fire. He’s just trying to get some new uh some new bling for Bill’s girlfriend. Yeah, that’s the that’s a lesson to be learned here. Okay. No matter how bad your dumpster fire is, there’s always one worse somewhere. There’s always one worse that you could point to. All right, last thing. Uh, all kinds of trade rumors everywhere. This is what happens. Look, okay, when you’re a dumpster fire, everybody points at the dumpster fire and says, “All right, who are their best players? Let’s let’s let’s write about it.” And now everybody’s writing the the quintessential if he becomes available. Yeah. Yeah. You know, if Patrick Mahomes became available, the entire league would line up. Well, except maybe three teams, two teams maybe, but what do you make of this? I think that that there’s I think Chub is as good as gone. And I think the Jaylen Phillips thing is that’s the one that’s most likely. I think that’s the most notable player that’s probably on the way out because I don’t know if they’re paying him. And I don’t know if we have the GM that could correctly gauge his value or his diminished value, I should say, going forward and try to take advantage of it because a good general manager would try to massage this into his favor. And I do fear that Jaylen Phillips is going to end up somewhere else and somebody else is going to get his best seasons as a pro. Uh, your thoughts on all this, Simon? I think there’s four players. Okay. Uh Aan, uh Phillips, Chub, and Waddle. Take them one by one. Achan, there’s rumors. Tony Pauline says there’s rumors of Tariq Woolen and Achan sort of straight up swap. Wen is back to playing really good football. The question about Achan is, and I get there would be, you know, fighting on the streets of Miami is that he’s going to want to get paid pretty soon, and he is uh not a onetry pony. that would be unfair. But he is relatively injuryprone, very undersized, and you wonder about paying him the 20 million a year that he wants to get um visav his size and longevity profile. Waddle is paid like a top 10 receiver and isn’t uh he doesn’t have great hands comparative to receivers in the NFL, but he is obviously a good player and an explosive player. He’s also had an injury history. Uh, I think if the deal was good enough for Jaylen Waddle, uh, I think you would certainly look to trade him. I don’t know if the deal would be good enough. And realistically, what’s the deal that you’d trade him for? Second and the third. A f would you get would somebody deal a first for him? I I feel that’s unlikely. Chub seems like the biggest favorite to go because the age profile, the fact that, you know, you could plug him into a a team that’s going into the playoffs and and probably pick up rotational sacks with him, especially in the playoffs. Um, and the fact that he’s not owed any actual money. Uh, so you really it’s just a half season thing and to all intents and purposes. The most interesting I think is Phillips in that uh he’s obviously coming to the end of his contract, will be a free agent. Uh you’d love to keep him around because he’s a really good player, but he clearly doesn’t have the explosion that he once had. Will that come back? It remains to be seen. He’s obviously had two very, very serious injuries, the two worst you could have for a player with his skill set. Um I don’t think all four would go. I think Chub seems the most likely. If I was to stack them, I’d say Chub, Waddle, Phillips, Achan, but I’d say Chris the most. I I’d be shocked if Bradley Chubs here after November the 4th. The other three I could see them going, but would have to be in a scenario where Miami really did win out the trades. And I think it’s unlikely because also if you get rid of Chop and Phillips like you’re essentially just saying that you know Chop Robinson and and Matthew Judon are your starting edges for the rest of the season and that’s not the situation that you particularly want to be in. Um especially given that Jud Judon is like 42 and Robinson has disappeared. So you know I I think dealing both of them is unlikely and I think there’s loads of you loads of smoke at this time of the year. I think one of the four will go and I think he’ll be chopped. Chris, yeah, I I think that you covered the pros and cons like really well and actually I fully agree with each one of them that you went down um with Achan, you know, from Han on down and I think that um Achan, yes, you have you have to think about what position the Dolphins are in right now. Um, I think that a good exercise and I’ve I’ve challenged you know uh others and Alf yourself included on this is like if you were to get into the 26 off season and you’re completely rebuilding, right? You don’t even know who your next quarterback is. Um, you don’t even have the ability to get this quarterback out the door yet, let alone start in on your next one. uh you know that you have Egypt level building to do on the uh the lines. Um you know that you have a financial mess, right? An absolute financial mess to deal with and clear uh before you can get back to some kind of neutral and that you’re probably not going to compete for a little bit, right? Um, would you trade, you know, just hypothetically, somebody calls you up and says, “Hey, I’ve got this this super fast, very flashy running back, uh, 24-year-old running back, Devon Achan. He’s yours for a second round pick.” If you were in that situation, would you go ahead and do that? Would you trade the second round pick for Achan? Because if you wouldn’t, then why would you say no to the second round pick for Achan? You know, like you have to think of it in those terms. But all of that said, the only guy who might get traded to me is Bradley Chub. I don’t think ultimately anybody else is getting traded. And the ultimate reason, and I have been led to believe this from sources as well, is the Dolphins are in a little bit of paralysis because they don’t know who’s who’s going to be in charge next. and they can’t make big decisions like this on behalf of who’s going to be in charge next. And so I think that um ultimately no there the answer is going to be no. Even though the waddle I’m told the waddle uh consideration is serious. Um it’s not those conversations are serious. It doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. Ultimately I don’t believe it’s going to happen. I don’t believe any of the big ones are going to happen. even uh Jaylen Phillips and keep in mind also the Jaylen Phillips thing is you know I know people don’t want to talk about compensatory picks anymore but if he goes off in free agency that is a consideration that he could earn you a third round pick if you you know depending on what you do signing free agents and I think that the Dolphins are probably going to have to take a break for a little bit from you know being all about the free agent um so you know that’s a consideration there none of those are going to be because the Dolphins are paralyzed over this GM situation. None of those guys are going to be traded. The one thing I’ll say about trading Chub is it’s not just that he doesn’t have much salary left, so he’s just a true kind of rental for the for some other team, but also Miami might want to get him out the door so that they don’t have to be holding the bag when his incentives are due because he remember he he restructured and built in some incentives into his contract that can trigger, you know, based on certain production values and if he hits those production He’s been starting all year for the Dolphins. If he hits those productions for the do production values for the Dolphins, then they’re going to have to pay him those incentives at year end. By the way, I got something on that. And then and then I think that uh the other team, if you were to trade him, whoever’s holding the contract at the time that the payment is due is essentially the one holding the bag. So, if the Dolphins were to trade him, they would get out of uh get out of doing that. And I think they will have to trade him before he meets one of these. If and this is the most dolphin thing ever. It it depends on when the payment is due. If the payment is not due until the end of the year, then I think the incentive is nothing more than just like triggering a guar a future guarantee. And a future guarantee on your books if you literally give the cash. But it’s not if he achieves it here because he is two sacks away from $1.5 million. Does he does does the does the payment occur Alf when he achieves does it does it literally occur let’s say he achieves he he achieves the the trigger on October whatever I don’t know 19th whatever does the payment literally happen on that day Alf if it doesn’t then I don’t know I don’t know okay I don’t know but the most dolphin thing ever is for Bradley Chub to get two sacks against the Browns and now you owe him $1.5 million more but I don’t I don’t I don’t think that that’s true I think that that’s I think it’s only it’s only on your books once it’s only guaranteed to be on your books if you literally put the cash in the other players account. Okay. Right. Um I if if somebody else takes over the contract then they take over a set of liabilities which includes money owed money owed that hasn’t been transferred yet. So if the other team if it can an incentive can be and you know yeah there’s there’s league rules that it would take some clarification for me to be certain about this but I do know that the way these contracts work generally speaking is just because money is owed if it hasn’t been paid yet then the team who owns the contract at the time of payment due they’re the ones that have to put it on their books yeah uh as far as these trades I’ve made my feelings no known Um, yeah, Chub for anything. Uh, whatever you can get because I think trading Chub is more important than even getting any return whatsoever because I think it means Chop Robinson gets all those snaps. And I think that’s a plus. I think that’s a benefit. Not that it’ll make the team better, but it’ll help you evaluate and build for the future. You get to see Chop Robinson play 40, 50 snaps a game for the rest of the season, which is what he should have been doing from the beginning, by the way. Okay. On A10, I’ve made my my my feelings known. On Wadd, I’m I’m a much softer softer no. And on Jaylen Phillips, my fear is what I said is you need a good general manager to be able to massage this situation, have a plan going forward for what you can do with Jaylen Phillips. And you know, not to, you know, glaze uh Howie Roseman, but you get the feeling that somebody like Howie Roseman would sign Jaylen Phillips all of a sudden to a fouryear $60 million deal. You know what I mean? And you’d be like, “Holy shit.” You know what? That’s not terrible. You know, maybe you get the huge upside of Jaylen Phillips, but it’s 15 million a year, which puts him like, you know what, 22nd or 23rd, uh, you know, in payment APY for edge players. That’s not terrible. Do you really think that our general manager and our front office situation, it’s going to be good enough to massage that? So, if I’m going to make a prediction, yeah, Chub is out of here for anything. And I would trend for literally anything. Like, you know, I I’ I’ I’d hold an auction, but the Really? You’re gonna give me a seventh round pick? Awesome. Let’s do it. And the best job is a sixth rounder. Does Does Jaylen Phillips want to be here anymore? Like, well, he was asked he was asked and he says, “Yes, I want to be here. I want to if he’s making it known, you know, I’ll uh Jaylen Ramsay um that that he has no interest in being here anymore. he’s sick of this, you know, and he and he wants out. Then even if you have the paralysis of your decision-m um you know, structure, you might do that anyway because you know there then at that point at that point there’s nothing to lose. Two considerations here. He’s young. He has a young family. He has a wife. He has a child. Uh he said he wants to be here. He just bought a house here. Okay. His wife His wife should say Yeah. or he his wife I’m not saying that his wife should say I should say his wife might say you don’t owe these people anything no hometown discounts if you could get 22 million a year somewhere else we’re going somewhere else for 22 million a year I just nobody’s paying that was a sucker Simon it’s free agency such a risk yeah I just don’t think anybody’s paying that that’s just so if I had to so my final prediction is both are gone I think Chub and Phillips are traded I think I think they’ll get a decent The thing the thing about Phillips, the one thing about Phillips is if he if he tries to engineer a move is that I don’t think this Dolphins team, if I’m going to be realistic, is going to be winning playoff competitive until 202. We don’t even have the quarterback. Do you know what I mean? And it’s very rare that a quarterback come unless you end up with the first pick in the draft in 2027. And let’s just say for argument sake that Julian Sey is the guy and he has an amazing year next year wins the Heisman just looks like unbelievable like Andrew Luck kind of thing. Realistically the 2020 what’s that 2027 28 season he’ll be a rookie. 28 29 or 2930 realistically I don’t think that you’ll So is Jayen Phillips at age 26 with the injuries that he’s had is he sitting here thinking [ __ ] five am I going to wait four years till I’m winning like you know I’ll take a I’ll take a lot less money to to get me out of here and you know maybe a deal could be engineered where he you know you get a return on investment and he gets less money wi with the 49ers and you know we get a fourth round pick or or whatever it is in in return but I I just can’t see both of them getting moved because it just doesn’t you know there there are yes it opens the door to draft Ruben Bane for example and God knows we’re not going to have anybody rushing the passer if it’s you know we’re literally just left with Cam good Matthew Jud on and then Chuck Robinson um so Grayson Murphy has our back Simon yeah great brilliant old captain concrete legs ghost Grayson Murphy. He goes to Grayson Murphy. Yeah. So, yeah. I just can’t see. They didn’t bring him back, did they? Is he in the practice squad? No, he left, didn’t he? He left. I’m pretty sure he’ve gone long enough on this. Confirm it before we get out of here. Yeah, we’ve gone long enough on this. So, let’s give the predictions. Chris, uh, you gave a spoiler already to everybody else, so might as well give the number. Dolphins Dolphins gonna Dolphins win. I’m gonna say something like 20 to 10. Okay, I go next. Yeah, the their streak of three touchdowns per game is going to be broken. I don’t see how they’re this is going to be a game where they’re going to put up three touchdowns in the game. If they score two touchdowns, I think they win. I think they score two touchdowns and a field goal, but it’s not going to be easy. 1713 Miami. Uh Grayson Murphy is uh a street free agent. Nobody picked him up after the cuts. Shocked. I don’t think they could afford to get him on a plane because the concrete would have not allowed the plane to take off. Um I am going Cleveland 15, Miami 13. Oh my god. Just to be I I do think Miami will win. I think but there’s just enough doubt in my head. If this was in Miami, I’d say Dolphins’s definitely going to win. I just that that Green Bay game just gave me food for thought. Yeah. Yeah. It’s a it’s a it’s a rough one. All right. We’re on the way out here. Uh I will say this on our Discord only fins. And if you want to become a member of our Discord, you got to go to discord.gg/onlyfins. You become a member there. All access for $4.99 a month. Sign up on a on a desktop to avoid the Apple upcharges. And we’re doing something special this week. We already give away one pair to our Reddit members. So we have two pair left. Technically, we have three pair here, but we’re going to give away two more pairs of club seats for Ravens Dolphins, courtesy of GOI. On October 30th, the Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens. Goi will be creating the ultimate fan experience at the Hard Rock South Plaza, lighting up the Touchdown Terrace, and hosting activities at the booth. You got to go to go.com. That’s go ov.com. But first, go to Discord and join our Discord. discord.gg gg/onlyfins for a chance to win club seats. These are not like nosebleleed seats. These are club seats in row one. These are expensive seats. We’ve already given away one pair. We will give away two more pair. We’re actually giving away one pair this week depending on the result of the Steelers Bengals game on Thursday. So, do that. We will talk to you about this game on Monday. We will recap this game. If there’s ever been a mental health win to get, it’s this one because if they don’t get it, I think my mental health is also in peril. But we will talk to you on Monday. See you then. See guys,
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