Maple Leafs struggling coming into Buffalo to play the Sabres

Maple Leafs struggling coming into Buffalo to play the Sabres

Sabres have a home and home with the Maple Leafs and I’m feeling pretty optimistic about their chances. I’ll tell you why coming up here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. You’re Locked On Sabres, your daily podcast on the Buffalo Sabres, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. What is up everybody? Welcome in to a game day here on the Locked on Sabers podcast. Thanks for making us your first listen every day. If you do, you can check us out wherever you get your podcast. You can watch the show on YouTube. If you’re not familiar, you can hit us up there. Just search Locked On Savers, hit the like and subscribe button, follow us on YouTube. And if you would like to become a part of our lockedown savers text club, maybe you want updates at practice, uh you’re at work during the day and you can’t be glued to Twitter or obviously wouldn’t be there. So you want to know what who’s going to start in goal or what the lineup’s going to look like. You get some stuff during game nights, maybe not tonight because I’m going to be at the World Series, but otherwise um during games, you can hit us up. Joinsubtex.com/lockdowns is the place to sign up. Sneaky Joe Debbiosi here on a Friday. Today’s episode is presented by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code lockdown NHL for $20 off your first purchase. Maybe you want to go to Sabres and Lease tonight. Maybe you want to join me for game one, Blue Jays and Dodgers. Um, I got a little lucky, pretty penny for those uh for those tickets. So, um, only, you know, be responsible on that front. I am like irrationally excited for this game tonight in Toronto. I have no idea what I’m going to get. I am wearing a Saber jersey to this game. So, uh, if you’re there, I’ll be easy to spot. I can’t imagine there’ll be more than one person, two people that are going to be wearing Saber jerseys in that entire stadium. Um, also be watching some watching the game out before. So, I’m really pumped for tonight. Um, skipping a game that I love to go to. I love going to Sabres Leafs. Uh, every year that’s the game I target. And often you only get it once, sometimes you get it twice. But the new scheduling in the NHL over the last five, six years, I hate. I love when I was growing up and it was eight meetings against each team in your division which meant you knew Toronto in your barn four times a year. I definitely missed that. So definitely missing out on this game tonight, especially with it being early in the season. Some of these more recent Saber Leaf meetings have been late in the year when the Sabres are kind of out of it and that sucks. Last year it was like the second to last game of the season. The only thing anyone was playing for Toronto was playing for like a a Matthews goal mark. Um was he trying to get the 50 or I don’t even remember what it was. 100 points for Marner maybe is actually what I’m thinking of. Um this year you get it early. You get an early October Toronto home game. The Sabres are looking good in their last four. The Leafs are not looking so hot, but they are right next to each other in the standings. So a lot to get to on this game tonight. We got a lot of Saber updates to get to. got my bet of the night. I’m looking to stay hot. I have been all over it so far this year. Um, you’re going to have your es and flows. You know, it’s not going to hold up to this extent the entirety of the year. I’m already up over 10 units on the season. That’s unfair to expect. Um, but, you know, last plus 108, I believe, uh, plus 10.8, excuse me, units on the season so far. Uh, looking to keep that rolling a little bit today. Um, before we get to any of that, this meeting, this matchup is one where the Sabres very often dominate, at least in context with what they’ve been since the playoff drought began in the 20112 regular season. The Buffalo Sabres have played 32 teams at home and there are only four teams that do not have a winning record or at least a 500 record against the Buffalo Sabres in Buffalo on the road even even in road matchups. There are only four teams that are below 500. They are Vegas who’s only played seven games against the Sabres, LA who’s played 11. Ottawa, they’ve played 27, and Toronto, who have also played 27, and have been a dominant team, a great regular season team for almost the entirety of that playoff drought. They had a couple of bad years in the early stages of it, but a lot of those losses have come since then. Ottawa having a bad record against the Sabres like okay they’re 1113 and three. Ottawa hasn’t been very good all this time either. Um Toronto on the on the other hand Toronto’s been good. They have of course made the playoffs many years in a row here and while sure they don’t really succeed once they get there that’s really never been the question. Although that might be different this season and we’ll get to that coming up in uh in a little bit here. But they’ve made the playoffs every year since the 201617 season. And if I just look at that period since Toronto has been on their little playoff streak here, it’s again, it’s like just barely above a 500 record against the Sabres um in Buffalo. Sabres do well in these games. The one thing I do wonder though is is part of the reason the Sabres do well that the Leaf fans come in and they take over the building and that really fires up the Sabres like what the hell our buildings or show them. Let’s send them back across the Peace Bridge up the QEW with a loss. Is that why they get fired up and why they win these games? um because it is a little strange that they do and in this game I’m not so sure that there’s going to be a a million Leaf fans. I think there will be some was looking at the secondary market. Tickets are still kind of not that expensive for this matchup typically, especially on a Friday night. Um so I don’t know. I don’t know what we’re going to get. I don’t think we’re going to get as many Leaf fans as we normally do because of the Blue Jays playing. Um because I know what I would do if I was a if I was from Toronto and I was a Leafs and Blue Jays fan. I would even if I went to this game every year, I’d say I’m gonna go watch the Blue Jays in the World Series. That hasn’t happened in 30 years and it’s a regular season October game for the Maple Leafs. I’m definitely picking the Blue Jays game. Now, what I need to point out though, and this is why I do think there will be some Leaf fans, I acknowledge that not every Leaf fan is a Blue Jays fan and that not every Leaf fan that comes across the border to go to these games is from Toronto. a lot of them are from southern Ontario and maybe you’ve got a lot of fans that are from southern Ontario that are Leaf fans but are also Yankee fans or Met fans or Red Sox fans. Um there’ll be a lot of people like that or maybe they just aren’t baseball fans at all. That’s possible too. In fact, it is the case to some degree. So, um you’ll get some Leaf fans. I just don’t think it’s going to be the same as normal. So, maybe that actually hurts the Sabres. I know it sounds backwards, but I wonder about that. to the Sabres and their updates for tonight’s game because we do have a couple of good signals to tell you about for tonight’s game when it comes to the injury report and what the lineup is going to look like. Um, and we’ll start with I think what is the best news of the day. Actually, might be tied. Number one for me is that Jason Zucker is on the ice for practice here on Friday morning. That’s big because I really didn’t know what that timeline was going to be. When I saw him hold his shoulder, I thought, “Oh no, did he separate it? Did he tear something?” We just saw Josh Norris go through this. In fact, Josh Norris has gone through this a lot of times where he goes down and grabs his shoulder and he’s out eight weeks uh multiple months like sucks. Zucker does the same thing and I’m holding my breath that that’s not the case with him because he leads the Sabres in goals and he’s become a strong middle six winger for them. Plays all situations. I guess he doesn’t play penalty kill but he plays power play. Um back on the ice and I think expected to be in the lineup tonight. So, it’s a very, very good update uh to get on Jason Zucker. The other good news, and this is not for tonight’s game, but this is for probably next week, Michael Kessler back on the ice for the Buffalo Sabres at practice, which means the timeline for him is starting to ramp up towards getting back to play. So, very, very good on that front. Um, and then what else? From practice, you did have otherwise the same lineup. Zack Mets looks like he’s going to be in the top six for the Buffalo Sabres tonight. He’ll play again on a on a pair with Matias Samson. Otherwise, the lineup looks exactly as it did. Other than goalie, goalie, you flip. Obviously, Coltton Ellis got the last game. Alex Lion back between the pipes for tonight’s game. I actually it’ll be curious to see who backs up Lion tonight. I kind of guess it will be Ellis, but I guess it could be Lucin who was recalled yesterday and now he’s with the team. So, we’re doing the three goalie dance. Um, we’ll see who backs up Lion. My guess would be probably though that it is uh it’s Coltton Ellis. Um, so that’s the Savers lineup for tonight’s game. Again, big news that Zucker is back. I’ll give you actually looking at the lineup here, everything being the same. What was going to be my bet of the night until some odds moved around and then I switched it. When I woke up this morning, opened up the FanDuel app, looking around, what do I like? And I made this point a little bit yesterday about Tage Thompson. We were talking about Tage and Tuck um and how they have only scored one goal each this year. By the way, that has changed because in what is to me the latest goal change I’ve ever seen, two days later, this morning, they announced that uh Alex Tuck is now getting credit for Josh Don’s goal the other night in the third period. Apparently, he tipped it when he was in front of the net. Um so Tuck now has two goals in the year. Anyways, we were talking about Thompson and how I think the goals are coming and one goal in this amount of games. He’s ninth in the NHL in shot attempts. He came pretty close to scoring um a couple of nights ago against Detroit. I woke up to him being at 1 plus 160 anytime goal. I like that tonight. I think you’re going to see Tage get in the goal column this weekend against Toronto. The Leafs give up a lot of chances. Bad goalending. Get to that coming up next. Uh so keep an eye out for Tage and to score. Those odds are move by the way. I think they’re plus 150 right now as I record here. But um yeah, Thompson to score. I kind of I kind of like that for tonight and even into tomorrow when we come back. What’s wrong in Toronto? I mean, it’s not going well for them. They might be entering a different phase of their franchise. Uh, we’ll get to that when we come back here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast. Today’s episode of Locked On Sabers presented by Rugette. 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Today’s episode of locked on savers also presented by FanDuel sports books. Stay tuned a little bit later on. We’re going to get to my bet of the night and we are 51 and one as a show and as a as a group of listeners here on the on the season. 51 and one and um plus 10.6 units on the year. So check out all your odds at FanDuel. Maybe you just like tracking listen if you want to track the game if you made a bet or you can open up your lock screen and have it placed on there so that it’s kind of like a box score right in there. The app’s really good just for even that, just tracking along what you’re looking at once a game is going and you want to be updated. I’ll be doing that tonight when um when I’m at the World Series. Uh you can bet on that, by the way. World Series, lot of good odds. Otani tonight. Um somebody on the Jays, you want Vlad Guerrero and Otani to hit a home run. You got a same game parlay option. Lot of stuff. Hockey season of course though is here. Nothing beats being in the arena with these opening games between waiting and queues, surprise fees, you know, all that stuff. Um you’re never going to get that over at FanDuel. So, at FanDuel Sportsbook bet, you got a great option right now. New customers can bet just $5 and three and get 300 in bonus bets if you win. Pick a bet, put down five bucks. If it hits, you unlock $300 in bonus bets that you can use all across the app. So, what are you waiting for? Visit fanuel.com to download the FanDuel app today and get started. Sneaky Jody Biosi back here on a game night. Sabres and Maple Leafs tonight at Key Bank Center 7 o’clock. remember moved up half hour due to the uh the World Series shifting things around. All right, the Maple Leafs. Let’s dive in a little bit on what’s going on in Toronto and why I like the Sabres to win this game tonight. I I like the odds of the Sabres winning tonight against the Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs on the season not off to a great start and maybe again they’re realizing a different phase here in Toronto. 33 and one, seven points. They have a minus1 goal differential. Some of their advanced numbers on the season, their shot attempt percentage, Corsy four percentage on the year. They rank at five on five, 21st in the National Hockey League. Shots four percentage. What percentage of the shots in a game do the Maple Leafs get? They are 17th in the NHL so far this year. They rank 21st in their amount of shots. Add five on five. Um they do rank 22nd in total shots. Like actually flip that around. They’re the allow the 10th fewest shot. So, they are playing a little bit more of a lowevent style of game than they absolutely did a couple of years ago when they were flying around the ice playing run and gun style. Um, expected goals four percentage on the year. Toronto ranks 17th middle of the pack. You’re really not going to find anything at five on five that points to the Leafs being anything but a middle of the pack team. And again, you’re going to find more numbers that tell you that they’re a below average team than they are an above average team. Power play percentage on the year, the Maple Leafs, I mean, I’m really missing Mitch Martyr. They have uh 12% right now on the year, which is 28th. I mean, the fourth worst power play in the NHL going into this year. That is not the Maple Leafs that you’ve come to know over the years. Penalty kill percentage, if you’re interested, again, kind of points to them being a little bit more of a low event team, a little more defensive. 28th in the power play, 14th in the penalty kill, definitely better. And then we get to save percentage. One key point that I was making when I picked the Maple Leafs to finish, I think fifth in the Atlantic division before the year, I thought they were in they were in store for a step back goalending. I thought the goalending was going to regress. And part of this is Joseph Wall has an injury and he’s now on LTIR. So part of that is injury. I get that. But another part of it is Anthony Stallars who was the 1A last year in Toronto. Had a really really strong season and he’s healthy and he’s playing tonight against Buffalo and he is not off to a very strong year. Last season the Maple Leafs had the third best save percentage in the National Hockey League. This season they ranked 22nd. And my point about them coming into this year was last year, you know, the five on five numbers that I just went through, how they’re middle of the pack, below average, that’s not different. That’s what they were last season. But the reason you didn’t or many didn’t pick up on that or didn’t realize it was happening is the goalending made up for it. They went from this elite team to a middle- of the pack team that had great goalending and they had Marner too which the power play helped. Right. This year they’re still that middle of the pack to below average team at five on five. The power play is not working and the goalending regressed. They can’t live life like that. And I’m not so sure they have the roster to be any different. The Maple Leafs going into tonight. It’s not just, by the way, you know, for the long term, for the short term, and this is why I kind of like them for tonight’s game, the Sabres. Uh, they’re missing two of their top four defensemen. Morgan Riley is going to miss this game tonight for Toronto. Nick Robertson is going to miss this game for Toronto tonight. So, they are also dealing with their share of injuries. Um, but when you look at this lineup, Sans Mitch Mner, I’m looking at they’re moving all the lines around. They actually just changed these, I think, in the last couple of days. Bobby McCann is now playing on the first line. Matias Machelli is now playing on the second line. Um Dakota Joshua and Eastston Cowan are now playing on the third line. They’ve bumped Max Dhoni all the way down to fourth line center, a guy they were counting on to be a middle six scorer for them. Um it’s just and not having Marner as that elite distributor on their top power play unit. I I think they’re really going to miss him and they’re looking like they miss him and the goalending is not up to snuff. Like I don’t think this is an elite regular season team anymore and I don’t even care about the playoff stuff. The playoff stuff is just kind of funny. It’s all way it’s always over there like haha Toronto you suck in the playoffs while they’re getting 100 points 105 points. But now I think that that era might be over. We might now be out we might now be entering an era where it’s not just about their playoff failure. It’s also now about are they not just an automatic playoff team every year in the in the regular season. That is what I am now wondering about the Maple Leafs. So, I go into tonight thinking Toronto. I’m not telling you the Sabres are better than them. I think they’re on par. I think these two teams are very, very close to each other. Couple of key differences. I think the Sabres have an elite defenseman and a blue line in general right now that Toronto can’t match. And at the same time, I also acknowledge that the Sabres cannot match the top two forwards of Willie Knander and Austin Matthews. They do not have two forwards that are that good. That’s where Toronto has an advantage right now. I tell you I trust the Sabres goalending more than I trust Toronto. I tell you I trust their power play more. I And even if I did trust Toronto’s power play, the Sabres penalty kill is number one in the league. So I like the Sabres a lot. They’re the home team tonight. We don’t have as many Leaf fans in attendance. Uh I kind of, you know, just worked my way into the bed of the night, I guess. um which is not great because I did save that for our third segment, but I couldn’t help myself. I like the Sabres to win this game tonight. Um plus 112 is what I’m looking at um for tonight’s game. When this graphic was made, if you’re watching on YouTube, it was plus 106. It’s been moving around. It actually went from plus 106 to plus 112, which is actually what it’s at right now while I’m recording. So maybe grab it while it’s hot. Maybe it goes back down. I’m not sure. Um but I like the Sabres to win this game tonight. All right, I got carried away. I gave you my bet of the night and I’m hoping to uh to get off on the other track. All right, we we’ll take another segment here. We’ll look around at what else is going on in this game and also betting wise and we’ll take a little bit of a look at tomorrow what the Sabres are going to do in goal. I’ll give my best guess because if Lions playing tonight, that means Ellis or UPL’s playing tomorrow. And I’ll tell you why I have a very strong opinion on who should play that game. that coming up here on Lockdown Savers. Today’s episode of the Lockdown Savers podcast is presented by Game Time. Hockey season’s here. Get in the arena. You want to go to the game tonight? Hey, maybe maybe I I’ve inspired you. I’m going to the World Series tonight and you want to go to the World Series tomorrow because game two is on Saturday night. You think, “Oh, wait a minute. Could do could double up here. go to a Saber Leaf game and then which is at 5:00 tomorrow. Then walk down the street, go to the World Series game at 8 double. What What a night. What a day that would be. So try it out. You want to check out what you’re looking at price-wise, maybe get some deals, zone deals especially, head over to the Game Time app. Um where getting tickets, you know, it could be a total headache. Um all that’s happening and Game Time makes that a lot easier. The app gives fans the advantage. Uh, it’s your ultimate life hack for scoring amazing NHL tickets. Fast, easy, and stress-free. My favorite part is when you’re scrolling through, you know exactly what you’re going to be looking at angle-wise from your seat. And that’s right there in the app. Very user friendly on that front. The zone deals I mentioned, game changer. You pick the section, game time will pick your seats. You save big. So, makes it a lot more efficient. And you can even find NHL tickets for under 25 bucks. Um, so check it out. Take the guesswork out of buying NHL tickets or baseball tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use code locked on NHL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. That’s code locked on NHL for $20 off. Swipe, tap, ticket, go. Back here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast. The Sabres and the Leafs tonight and then the Sabres and the Leafs tomorrow night. Little home and home. Love that. Um, I would take three points out of four. I wouldn’t settle for anything less. I think this is a team the Sabres should come away with three out of four points against. Um, it might be strong. It’s Toronto. They made the playoffs every year since 2015 16. And the Sabres have missed the playoffs every year. Uh, sorry, 1617 was the first year Toronto made it. Uh, and Sabres have made the missed the playoffs 14 years in a row. But I like how the Sabres are playing right now a lot more than I like how Toronto’s playing. So again, that’s why I’m going with them is my bet of the night. Um, the goalie the goalie situation tonight. It’s lying tomorrow. What do the Sabres do? I’ll give you what I think they’ll do and I’ll give you what I would do. If it were me, I would start Colt Nellis. I would say, “All right, Uka Pekka Lucanin is just coming back here. He’s only played one game against Ro for Rochester and that was two nights ago. Give him the extra couple of days off. have him practice a few times and then next year, next week, excuse me, find a way to get him into a game if you really want to. But I don’t even need to do that. This is how I would treat it. And this could end very quickly. This could end this weekend. You play Lion and Ellis until one of them falters. That’s how I would do it. I would not mess with the rotation. I would play Lion tonight. I would play Ellis tomorrow. And if both of them come out of those games looking really good, neither of them kind of blows up, then next week I’ve got a Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday game. And I would keep pushing the UPL start off. I would go two starts for Lion next week and I would get one start in for Ellis. And then if that continues to go well, again, I don’t mess with it. I don’t mess with what’s working. I don’t I personally would not feel any obligation to get UPPL a start. This team’s trying to make the playoffs. This team’s trying to end a playoff drought. I am not going to take one of my goalies off the ice for a guy that had a really had a bad year last year and has been dealing with injuries when the top the other two guys are playing really well. That’s how I would treat the situation until further notice. It’s kind of what coaches do a lot with regular lineups. It’s, hey, maybe a guy got healthy and he’s ready to go back in that’s normally in your lineup, but you’ve won three in a row. What do coaches often do in that spot? They say, I’m not gonna mess with it. I’m gonna let this lineup go until they lose one. And that’s how I that’s how I would treat the goalender situation. So, I would go with Ellis tomorrow. I liked him a lot on Wednesday against Detroit. And here’s the other part of it. I think if you go to UPL tomorrow, what is your plan with Ellis now? Is your plan to just never start him? Because again, I’m kind of hopeful that he could be a better goalie than UPL. And if you don’t get him in the rotation or keep him in the rotation, you’re never going to find that out. And I’ve got way more evidence on UPPL than I have on Colton Ellis. I mean, obviously UPPL has played over a hundred games now in his NHL career. And I’ve got one for Colton Ellis. So, part of it is finding out, but another part of it is I just have I have a lack of faith in Ukapanin. I’m not so sure he’s just going to automatically come back into the goal and he’s going to look like the goalie he was two years ago. I I’m not betting on that. So, it depends what the Sabres are betting on. If the Sabres think he’s our number one goalie, we paid him to be that. We’re going to give him an opportunity. We’re going to put him right in. That, by the way, is what I think they’re going to do. I think what you’re probably going to see is you’re going to see Lukan in play tomorrow night. And honestly, I’m not sure when I actually think Ellis is going to see the net again. And I this is where I wonder what they’re doing with him because they clearly like him. They claimed him. They’ve talked about liking him for a long time. Lindy Ruff talked about that. So, he’s been on their radar and they there was a report from Elliot Freriedman today that and I’ve said this a million times. I think it should be assumed the Sabres are afraid that the Blues would reclaim him. Uh again, I would say duh, they of course will reclaim him and send him down to the miners there. So, if you want him, you got to keep him here. But why do you want him? Is he just insurance? Do you think he’s a Devin Levi replacement as a top level goalie prospect? Do you think he’s ready now? Like, I think all of these things could be true, but how am I going to find any of them out if he’s not in the rotation? And I don’t want to take starts away from Alex Lion. Again, this is where three goalies can be annoying. Three goalies can be tricky. And Lions played so well that you don’t really want to even take starts away from him at all. You want him to just keep going. This is why I think the simplest the simplest thing to do is just keep UPPL out of the rotation until somebody gives him an opportunity to get back in. That’s what I that’s what I would do and that’s what I am rooting for them to do. We’ll find out tomorrow morning. It’s very interesting what’s going to happen here. Very tricky. Um but that’s how that’s I feel pretty strongly that I would go with Colton Ellis tomorrow night against the Maple Leafs. And that’s a five:00 puck drop. mber because that moved up because of game two in uh Toronto. All right, that’s going to do it for us today here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. Thanks everybody for tuning in throughout the week and throughout the show and we’ll talk to you after tomorrow’s game against the Maple Leafs. Um again, if you’re part of the Tex Club, I’ll be checking in here and there, but um probably not as much because I’m very very excited to go to Toronto tonight. By the way, I’ll be watching the Sabres Leafs game, at least the first period, from a bar in Toronto. I don’t know that I’ve ever done that. I can’t say I’ve ever been on the road watching the Sabres play amongst all the fans of the opposing team. I don’t think Leaf fans really despise the Sabres or anything, so I don’t expect to have much of a reaction. Um, I’ll let you know. It’s going to be a probably a weird experience that that first hour that I’m there. That’ll do for us. Sabres and Leafs tonight. Again, I’m going Sabres on the money line. Talk to you tomorrow here. The Lockdown Sabres podcast. You want to check out more hockey talk, Lockdown Fantasy Hockey, of course, and Lockdown NHL game night. Find it wherever you get your podcast and on YouTube. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

The Buffalo Sabres and the Toronto Maple Leafs have a home and home that starts in Buffalo on Friday night. The Leafs are not off to a good start this season as they try to adjust to life without Mitch Marner. Toronto so far are seeing a depleted powerplay, a lack of goaltending, and a top-six that doesn’t look nearly as strong as it used to.

Plus, what the Sabres should do with a goalie trio of Alex Lyon, Colten Ellis, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen now that everyone is here. Joe argues why Lyon and Ellis should split the net until someone loses it.

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