Seattle Mariners’ Payroll and Arbitration Thoughts + How Much Will Josh Naylor Cost?

Seattle Mariners’ Payroll and Arbitration Thoughts + How Much Will Josh Naylor Cost?

So, next week will be our first real week talking about the off seasonason to come for the Mars, but today we’ll set the stage for those discussions. Colobby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the locked on podcast network. Your team every day. Ohoy sailors. It is Friday, October 24th, 2025. This is Todd Gonzalez. I’m Colobby Patnode for the Lockdown errors podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the FanDuel app today. And as always, if you want to hear from me and Colby Vmore and help support the show, we have a Patreon. It’s called Control the Zone. And on there, we talk Mariners, Seahawks, all that good stuff. For more information, go to patreon.com/controlthezone. Link in the description of this episode. So, on the show today, we’re going to set the stage for some of our offseason discussions in the weeks to come. We’re going to finally go over the mayor’s arbitration projections and familiarize ourselves with them. Uh Jerry Dotto also spoke to the media yesterday. We’ll talk about one of the things he said. And that should lead us into our final topic of the day, which is the Mariners’s biggest free agent, Josh Naylor. We’ll talk about what we think he’ll get, what the biggest obstacles in those negotiations might be and all that. But let’s start here with the arbitration projections from MLB trade rumors, which dropped a couple weeks ago. I think it was actually while the Mariners were still playing the Tigers, but obviously we were still busy talking about playoff baseball, so we never got around to them. So, we’re finally getting around to them now. Uh MLB Trade Rumors is very accurate with these things. We use them pretty much as the gospel when we go to do our offseason plan and all that. They might be like, you know, a couple hundred uh,000 off here and there uh on some of these projections, but for the most part, they’re pretty spot-on. Uh so 10 Mariners eligible for arbitration this winter. Starts with Trent Thornton, $2.5 million. Randy Rosarena, the big one here, $18.2 $2 million. Logan Gilbert, $10 million. Gabe Spy, $1.7 million. George Kirby, $5.4 million. Taylor Saledo, $1.1 million. Matt Brash, $1.8 million. Luke, $1.8 million. Gregory Santos, $800,000. And Bryce Miller, $2.4 million. Uh, so the guy that jumps out is the first one that I mentioned here. Uh, Trent Thornton, $2.5 million coming off of the torn Achilles. I think it’s pretty safe to assume that uh he’s getting non-tender. Now, I do think the mayors will maybe try to to bring him back uh and let him rehab under their uh supervision. Uh but they’re definitely not going to pay him $2.5 million to rehab from a torn Achilles. Um after that though, you know, there’s at like $1.1 million. Uh obviously, you know, he didn’t have really much of an impact at all on the 2025 club, but it’s also not a ton of money. Uh Luke had a down year, uh but $1.8 million isn’t a whole lot. Gregory Santos is another guy that’s kind of in the Sedo range of like it’s not a lot of money. And for Santos, it’s like what, $20,000 above league minimum. Uh but obviously, you know, he didn’t have really any impact at all on the 2025 club. Uh, so any of those guys you’re going, you know, I’m good even though it’s a small number. Uh, I mean like Thornton and Sedo are no-brainers. You can non-tender them, probably get them back for league minimum. Thornton, you might throw some kind of incentive deal at them where, hey, you know, if you pitched 30 games for us this year, I don’t know what the recovery is on an Achilles tear for a pitcher. Um, but I think it’s safe to say that, you know, it’s going to be a while. Uh, so, you know, if he can get 30 every 10 outings, you get like a 100 grand or whatever, uh, and you sign him to the league minimum, maybe even a minor league deal, uh, with a opt out date. Uh, now they didn’t do that with Sam Hagerty a few years ago, a different situation, I know, but Hagerty wasn’t going to make a ton in ARB either. And they didn’t tender him and then they didn’t sign him to a deal or a minor league deal. So, uh, but yeah, 2.5 million is just I mean, it’s a decent chunk of change just for who Trent Thornton is. Not that he’s not worth it when he’s healthy. Um, but even if he was healthy, that would be a number you would look at and be like, you know, maybe, maybe not. but he’s not. So, Thornton’s an easy one. Saledo, I don’t care if it’s 300 grand over league minimum. It’s 300 grand over league minimum. Like, you’re you’re not paying that guy three, you know, more than league minimum when you’re probably daing him anyways. Like, he’s not going to be on your for man. So, there’s no reason to tinder him. Uh so, those two guys are are pretty easy. And I say easy meaning like from a baseball, you know, payroll standpoint, easy decisions from a we like those guys. Dec obviously not that easy. None of these are, but those are the two that stand out right away. The Luke one is probably the most interesting because at 1.8, he was kind of a non-factor this year, unfortunately. um couple different oblique injuries uh or well one oblique injury and then a reagravation of it. Also had some back issues uh had some vision issues. Uh so you know it’s an interesting point because we know Lukeley when he’s healthy and and when he is utilized properly is a good player. He was good for you in 2024. He was good for the Rays in 2023. Uh and it’s pretty easy to excuse this year with all the injuries that he had to deal with. Um, and you know, you look at where your current roster is right now and you say, “Well, we do not have an answer in right field as things stand and we are pretty sure we’re going to have an answer at first base uh in Josh Naylor.” We’re certainly hopeful that we have an answer at first base and Naylor. So, we don’t need to worry about you know, learning how to play first. And it’s less than $2 million for a guy who’s what was 130 WRC plus just, you know, two years ago. Yeah, something like that. Yeah. So, I think that’s an interesting one, but he is a platoon bat. Uh, shouldn’t really face lefties at all. And the Mariners got essentially 2024 Luke from Dominic Canzone who’s going to make the league minimum, which is a million dollars less than going to make. Uh, now isn’t anywhere near as good of a base runner or a defender. So, that’s an interesting one. I would pay him the 1.8. I think he’s well worth it. Um, and even if like, let’s say, I don’t know, maybe he doesn’t make the team, maybe he doesn’t get better, you’re going to be able to trade that or at least eat $1.8 million. It’s really not that big of a deal. So, I would tender him to 1.8. I’d be very surprised if they did not tender him. At the very least, I think they’re going to trade him. They’re going to trade him, you know, they could they could easily trade him to Colorado or Chicago or just, you know, a roster that just needs warm bodies and wants to take a shot on a guy. maybe they can flip him at the deadline or it’s, you know, a a you trading for a guy and the other team might want a major league piece back so that they can compete next year while trading one of their better players and so you flip him Luke. Spoiler alerts for my offseason plan. So yeah, it’s kind of one of those things. I think the the value of tendering him is much greater than the risk, but I think there’s also a better than zero chance that they just choose not to tender him, but I I I think they should and I think they will ultimately. Yeah. Yeah. Uh Santos. Yeah. No brainer. It’s 20 grand over Yeah. Like you saw you have him for two more years after this. You don’t want to not pick up, you know, 800 grand and then have this guy go back to what he was before you acquired him. So, and if he’s not ever going to be that guy again, who cares? It’s 800 grand. You non-tender him next year. Like, that’s the same amount you’re going to spend on Emerson Hancock. You wouldn’t rather take a shot on Gregory Santos and Emerson Hancock or or Luke Jackson. Like, come on. So, uh yeah, that’s a no-brainer. Yep. So lastly here um because everyone else nobrainer obviously radio Rosarena they’re going to Tenderum there’s no risk of of you know that not happening there but um at $18.2 $2 million given, you know, what our expectations are for how the Mariners are going to spend until we’re proven otherwise, you know, and we’ll talk a little bit more about payroll in the next segment, but uh is that too prohibitive at $18.2 million for the player that Randy ultimately is? really good hitter this year, had one of his best offensive seasons, but also a very bad corner outfield defender. Yeah. Like $18.2 million again for what the Mar’s spending habits are. Yeah. Uh it’s a bargain compared to the player that Randy is. Um Yeah. Randy goes on the open market this winter. He’s making at least 20 million a year. Yep. I mean, like there’s no reason he wouldn’t. So, yeah, it’s again because of how the Mariners spend. It’s the only reason it’s a question if this was the Yankees, right? Like, of course they’d pick him up. If it was the Dodgers, of course they’d pick him up. But the Mariners, you know, I think it’s fair to ask like, can you better spend that $18 million and get a player who better fits your ball club? But like, I think they really like Randy in the clubhouse. I know obviously you and Julio are are really good buds now and all that. I would say to that question, can you you know spend the money better? I would really not like to see them try. Like I I don’t think I have uh high confidence in their ability to actually properly accomplish that. Like look, we already know they need to add another outfielder because right field was a disaster for them uh in really from September until the end of the year. Um so they need to add another outfielder. you want to have to try and add two. Uh, and one of them has to be better than Randy, who’s a three- win player. You know, could go 3030. Uh, I know the defense isn’t great, but you can live with it, especially if he’s going to hit. Um, and Randy, the the offensive floor is still actually pretty high because he walks a lot. So, at the very least, you’re going to get walks and you steal bases as a result. So, it’s kind of one of those things where, you know, I can you do better for $18 million? Maybe. Is it a risk worth taking? No, because you can fit them in like we we talked about this like even with the ARB estimate of $18 million, the Mariners are still, you know, uh 20 $30 million under where they were to end the year, which we’re talking about here in a second, is the minimum starting point according to Jerry Dotto. But we’ll talk about why that’s, you know, iffy uh in just a second. So, uh, I don’t think you should try. Obviously, you’re going to tinder him. You might you might trade him because he’s only got a year left. I don’t think they see Randy as a an extension candidate. Um, wrong side of 30, defense is already declining, all that. Same reasons T Oscar Hernandez wasn’t really all that much in consideration for, you know, resigning and all that. But there’s also a decent chance, you know, you could just slap the qualifying offer on him at the end of this year and get a draft pick the next year. uh if assuming he has a good enough year that you think it’s worth slapping the QO on him, it’ll be 21 $22 million. As long as he’s a 3-1 player, he’s worth that. Uh so even if he accepts, you’re still fine and you get him for an extra year. So um I I think you know Randy, it’s it’s really no question you’re going to uh slap the or you’re going to tinder him and then you see where it goes from there. Maybe you end up trading him in the middle of the year. I don’t know. Maybe you end up trading him this winter. I don’t know. But Randy to me at $18 million, I know he didn’t have a great postseason. Um, but his his floor offensive floor is still pretty darn high because he walks a lot. He steals a lot of bases and you kind of live with the defense because, you know, he could also pop 30 homers uh as well and he’s wellliked. So, I I I think, you know, the decision on Randy is pretty easy. You tender him. Uh, and I would be pretty surprised if he wasn’t your opening day left fielder or DH. Yeah. Yeah, I’d be surprised as well. Like I I think he’ll stick around. I just I don’t think whatever you would get via trade for him is worth it and worth the headache of trying to replace him and and all that. So, uh and I just like you said, I I do think that they really really like him and they really like the fit. Um and he’s kind of found a home here. Now, it might still be temporary. He might only be for 2026. Uh but uh it it does seem like he’s he’s fit very well and obviously he has a great relationship with Julio and and all that. So I don’t know if you also want to disrupt that as well. All right, so we’re going to switch things up here. We’re going to talk a little bit about what Jerry Dotto had to say to the media yesterday at T-Mobile Park in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown areas podcast is brought to you by Rouette. Fellas, you’ve probably heard of Viagra or Seialis. Maybe you’ve even tried them. But if you’re looking for something beyond the usual pill, it’s time to meet Rouette Golong. This isn’t just another ED pill. It’s a total gamecher for confidence. Golong combines two doctor trusted medications and one dualaction formula so you can get hard and go the distance. The effects can last up to 36 hours. That’s confidence all day, all night, and even into the next day. Ready to level up your confidence in the bedroom? Head to ruggie t.com and use the promo code locked on MLB for 15% off your first order. That’s ru.com. Promo code Loc MLB. Make sure to use our code so they know we sent you. And you’re listening to the Lockdown Errors podcast. So yesterday, Jerry Dotto, Dan Wilson, and Justin Hollander all made themselves available to the media. It’s more of like a hey, we’re here if you have questions type of thing rather than a more official press conference slashstate of the organization. Uh the general tone yesterday pretty somber, pretty emotional. Uh obviously coming off of what happened earlier this week. Um Justin Hollander fighting through tears, talking about Monday night’s game, Jerry fighting through tears. I think that’s the first time I’ve ever seen Jerry be emotional like that in that sense like where he’s like on the verge of crying. Uh so that was um that was pretty wild to to see frankly. Um but uh yeah, you know, I want to talk maybe a little bit about all that stuff, but for the most part I want to talk about what Jerry had to say about payroll uh for 2026. Uh as we you know, again, we’re kind of setting the stage for our offseason discussions to come here in the in the coming weeks. Um, DTO said that, you know, he expects payroll uh this off seasonason to start where it was at the end of 2025, which is, you know, one of the highest payrolls that the Mariners have ever run out there. Um, now we have heard Jerry say similar things in the past and while it’s technically been true in the end, it hasn’t gotten to a point where it’s been satisfactory to us to the the fan base or really noticeable. Yeah. Right. It hasn’t been like that significant of an uptick in in payroll. Uh, so who knows how this is ultimately going to turn out. I did find it interesting though. Um I’m not sure who exactly asked him uh but someone asked him yesterday. They were like uh you know do you think because of the playoff run that that incentivizes you know an ownership group to spend more and all that and Jerry said I don’t have the answer for you. I’m not the person to ask that question to. Thought there was some actual growth there from Jerry who has at times done back flips to try and you know cover for for ownership. Carry the water so to speak. Yeah. Um I thought that was actually kind of a cool answer from Jerry. Like I don’t know. You ask them, right? Like so in like a three-day span we got Russell Wilson finally taking off the mask and taking shots and Jerry Dotto doing the same. Good. It’s good day for good week for Seattle sports, you know, aside from the first three days of it. Yeah. Yeah. But uh yeah, I mean we talked about it a lot. We got a mailbag question the other day yesterday about um you know, has there ever been an ownership group that’s like actually spent after a deep playoff run when they normally don’t? Yeah, the Diamondbacks uh pretty famously did it. But, you know, as for whether or not Stanton and company are going to do it, I I think, you know, seeing is believing in this case and and once until they actually do it, assume they won’t. Uh, you know, Jerry’s talked about this in the past. He’s talked about like, yeah, we’ve got total, you know, like we got all the money we think we need, blah blah blah, and then we come to find out, not that Jerry will ever say it, but the rug gets pulled out from under him. And it’s happened, you know, a couple offseasons in a row. And it still could happen here. Uh we are much closer to free agency, but I believe one time the rug was pulled out from under Jerry’s feet about 24 to 48 hours before free agency started. So there’s still time for ownership to do another 180. Uh but Jerry’s saying it’s it’s going to start where it ended this year. Uh and then also indicating that it uh would go beyond that as well. uh is a pretty, you know, to amongst the highest we’ve ever had with the Mariners. I think their high was what 180 188 something like that in the last year of the Cano Cruise uh Seagar era. So, we’ll see where it winds up. But, you know, if it is 165, which is about where it ended this year, uh, then the Mariners right now, assuming they tender everybody and assuming, you know, they didn’t make any outside additions, their payroll would be about 130 135 somewhere in that range. It’s a little hard to tell. There’s some wiggle room there. uh which you know in theory would give them about $30 million but obviously they have Naylor they want to resign and Polo and Gino and so that 30 million is going to dry up pretty quick so we’ll see what the ultimate number is but it does need to be uh does need to be higher and at least Jerry you know seemed to indicate it would be but also this wouldn’t be the first time that ownership sent Jerry out there to the media and then called him back behind closed doors and was like actually yeah or you know it it will be higher than that it’ll be 166 million. Yeah it’s I mean they talk about like adding pay like last year remember they had like $16 million to spend their opening day payroll last year was only like a million dollars more than the previous season’s end of year payroll. So who knows and obviously there’s the whole you know the lockout is looming and there’s a TV deal that they have they don’t have anymore. So, there’s a lot of things still in play here. Uh, again, I’m a I’m a big believer in make the ownership prove it to you uh before you do anything. So, till they do, I don’t think that I’m not going to take Jerry’s word for it, but I mean, he said the right things, which I guess is something. Yeah. I I just I thought it was nice to to see, you know, Justin and and uh Jerry kind of be real about it, you know, for a moment and be real about how much it it hurt them. Cuz I mean, like, you know, for for us, like especially like for you and I, like it, you know, this thing is almost every day for us. I mean, it is every single, you know, weekday for us. Um, but even then, like there are times that we can take a step back and kind of remove ourselves from baseball. Um, and you know, same thing with with the fan base. Like you can just turn the game off and just be done with it, you know? But for for Jerry and Justin, it’s like you’re living this, right? This is your life. I mean, the hours that they’ve probably spent at that ballpark are insane. Would blow our minds. Um, so you know to see them just be real about it like how much it hurts and like you can just see it on their face like that was nice because you know especially for I think it was good for the fan base to see that too because you know a big criticism of Jerry is that he’s like too robotic and he’s you know too much of a GM quote unquote you know plays fantasy baseball. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um and and that’s, you know, and that’s conflicted with how he’s tried to present himself over the years that he’s been here as well as trying to be like this super transparent guy. Yeah. And uh I’ve talked about this before how like it kind of, you know, has felt at times that like Jerry is like at conflict with himself because he’s still like trying to be an executive, but he’s also trying to be super transparent. and you can kind of see him like grappling with that in real time at times when he’s like speaking into a microphone. So yeah, I thought it was just a nice like real like human moment from those guys. Um and uh yeah, I just I can’t imagine how how much it hurts for for those guys right now. Obviously the players, but just for everyone that’s like been super involved in this and put so many hours into this thing over the last, you know, 8 n months. Lastly, you know, Jerry saying that, you know, Naylor is a priority, but also they don’t want to say too much to the media until they actually talk to the player. All that stuff, all the typical stuff you you expect to hear. Um, but yeah, I mean, like, not a surprise at all. Naylor is the priority. We’ve talked about this. Of the three big free agents that they have hitting the market, he’s clearly the guy of the of the three of them. So, we’re going to talk more about Josh Naylor in just a moment, but first a reminder. This episode of the Locked on Errors podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NFL season is here and FanDuel is making sure you’re ready for kickoff with a can’t miss offer. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. FanDuel makes every game more exciting, whether you’re watching your team or just keeping an eye on your fantasy lineup. It’s quick, easy, and the best way to add a little more energy to Sundays. So, are you ready to play? Download the FanDuel app now by visiting fanuel.com to get started. That’s fuel.com to place your first $5 bet. And you’re listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. So again, very clearly, uh, Josh Naylor is the Mariners’s priority heading into this winter, but what’s he going to make? And that’s a pretty big question that I’m not still super sure on. You and I, Colby, we’ve talked about this a little bit amongst ourselves, but uh I I think we have like a general idea of where he might wind up landing, but uh yeah, what kind of contract do you think Josh Naylor is going to wind up getting when it’s all said and done? Yeah, it’s it’s a little tough to say. There’s not a ton of great comps here. I mean, Naylor is a first baseman who doesn’t hit for traditional first base power. Um he’s hit 30 home runs once, but it came at quite a bit of sacrifice to his batting average and his on base. Uh so there’s kind of a do you want him to be a 30 homer guy or do you want him to be the guy that we saw last year? I mean there’s kind of that whole thing. Um he’s also 29 I believe going to be 29 28 29. Um so that’s a good age to hit free agency. So that’s a plus on his side. A lot of first baseman don’t reach free agency until 30 31. um the the body type is going to be something that’s going to be held against him unfortunately. Uh that’s just kind of the way it works. How does that age so to speak? So I I think that’ll lower more of his years, not his AAV uh average annual value if you guys don’t know. Basically, what’s the average take-home pay dur through the course of the contract? So yeah, it’s a little bit of a of a gray area here. Like Christian Walker got 20 million, but Christian Walker was 34, but Walker was also a plus defensive first baseman. Naylor’s merely good at first base, and Walker was 35 home run guy. Naylor’s a 20 home run guy. So, it it’s a little tough to to nail this home, but I I do think that my hunch is is that Naylor is looking for four to five years at 20 million per. And I think I think the market is probably going to uh limit him to 3 to four years guaranteed. Maybe there’s an option uh somewhere out there for him. I don’t think he’s going to get five guaranteed years from anybody. Um and I think ultimately because of the first base because he’s only had one three- win season in his career. It was last year or this year I should say. Um, and because, you know, a big part of that value is the stolen bases, and people are going to wonder how repeatable that is. Yeah. Uh, I I think he’s probably going to be looking at somewhere between on the low end 16 million a year on a four or five year deal or three, four year deal, maybe a fifth year option. And at the high end, 20, 21, somewhere in that range. Um, he’s not going to get Pete Alonzo. He’s not going to get I I’d honestly I’d be pretty surprised if he got Christian Walker. Uh even though he’s better than Christian Walker, but he wasn’t last year uh when Walker signed. So yeah. Um ultimately the number I keep coming down to is about 18 million per on about three or four years. Uh so that’s kind of where I’m at. Obviously, if it’s 18, it could be 20, could be 16, you know, but I I think I’m landing somewhere in the 470 range, plus or minus, you know, couple million bucks here or there. And keep in mind, the Mariners can maneuver it where he only makes $6 million this next year. And then in the final year of his contract, he makes 24 or whatever, right? So, it’s it’s not just a straight payline. like it’s not just 15 a year for four years, but I do think the average is going to be my hunch would be somewhere around 18 million up to about 20 21 million. Yeah. So, um you know, for for all the reasons that you mentioned uh again, you know, first three wins season uh ever uh this year, big reason for that, the stolen bases, how repeatable is that? I don’t think any team uh especially the Mariners is going to buy into that being repeatable. Uh cuz again it’s the you know second percentile and sprint speed all that. Obviously he’s an incredibly smart baseball player. Um but uh yeah is he going to steal 30 bags again? Would love to see him try. Uh but that’s probably not going to factor into the negotiations in any sort of like serious manner. I have a hard time seeing that. Um, like I’m sure he I’m sure him he and his representation will try uh to have that factor into things, but I just I don’t know if any team is really going to take that too too seriously. Uh, the other thing though is is the shoulder. Uh, how much is that going to get flagged by teams and how how much is that going to hurt him in negotiations? Maybe not at all. It’s possible um that you know teams just you know and and the mayors especially, they just don’t see it as much of a long-term thing. But obviously it’s something that he dealt with all year long. He was able to play through it. Did he make it worse playing through it? There’s a lot of questions uh involved in that that probably more so teams on the outside rather than the Mariners have. The Mariners probably already have a very very good idea of where he is healthwise. Um but um I guess if we’re going to, you know, talk about concerns, potential concerns here, um what might get in the way of the Mariners being able to bring him back? To me, it starts with the Mets. What’s going on with them and Pete Alonzo? Sure. Uh if Pete Alonzo signs elsewhere, he feels like such an angel signing, by the way. Yeah. But let’s just say, you know, Pete Alonzo goes elsewhere. Doesn’t have to be the Angels. He just goes elsewhere. I feel like the Mets would probably pivot to Josh Naylor if he’s still around. Maybe he’s not around by that point. I mean, part of this is why you you want the Mariners to get things done pretty quick. Like, don’t give yourself the opportunity. But also, I would just say, you know, to that idea, Josh Naylor strike you as a New York City kind of guy. No, but money talks and you know I I do worry about getting in anymore with right you know Steve Cohen. Sure. But like if the money is hey do you want you know do you want 80 million from the Mets or do you want 70 million from the Mariners? I feel like that’s pretty easy. 70 mil plus the whole income tax thing. We’re not going to get into the whole no state income tax. It’s not as cut and dry as people think but it is a factor and it’s something that we’re never going to get into. But agents and players certainly do uh you know take home pay and all that. But uh yeah, I just Naylor to me doesn’t strike me as a I guess really even an east coast kind of guy. But I mean Cleveland east coast adjacent like kind of he didn’t choose to be in Cleveland though. So uh I mean and he’s from your neck of the woods which is close to the east coast. So it’s it’s certainly like uh possible. I just I don’t know. He doesn’t strike me as a New York guy but sure there are going to be other teams bidding even if it’s not the Mets. And so, yeah, uh, yeah, I think it’d be great if they could get this thing done. Um, he’s not a free agent officially until 5 days after the last game of the World Series. So, you know, I’m sure Naylor wants some time right now to just kind of But if you’re Jerry and Justin, you might want to get on the phone and be like, “Hey, Josh, what’s get what gets us done now?” Like, yeah, which would be assume that he I’m going to assume that he’s going to want to, you know, go see what’s out there for him and all that. I mean, he’s a new father, all that. like, you know, he’s going to want to do what’s best for him and his family and um you know, as he should. He’s earned that right to to explore all that. But, uh yeah, I do think like if you’re the mayor, you need to get on this as soon as possible. Yeah. No reason to wait around and then be left, you know, at the altar. Like you can’t be in a situation where like your plan is Carlos Santana and then at the last minute that gets ripped away and you’re like, “Oh, well, also you shouldn’t be in a plan, you shouldn’t have a plan where Carlos Santana is the key to your entire plan.” But um you know, we saw this happen last year and the Mariners didn’t pivot well after that happened. Well, and the thing too is like you want to try and get this done before Pete Alonzo signs? Mhm. But also, is Naylor going to want to sign before Pete Alonzo signs? I don’t think anybody reasonably thinks that Naylor is going to get Pete Alonzo money. So, I don’t know how are I don’t think it’s because of that, but I do think it’s like, all right, well, now Alonzo’s off the board. Now I’m this, you know, the next best guy at this position. Like maybe, but maybe I don’t know. Like, it’s I don’t know Naylor that well. He’s only been here for a couple months, so I don’t really And I don’t know if you know this or not, Ty. He doesn’t like to let people in. Like, he’s a very private person. Yeah. Uh so it’s tough to to really know like have good feel for whether or not Naylor I mean he said all the right things. Uh everybody seems to imply that he likes it here. Yeah. But you just don’t know. You don’t know. And and like he seems to like hitting at this ballpark. It appears he was not lying about that. Uh so uh you know we’ll see. I I I think the Mariners certainly have a major advantage over everybody else in these negotiations. Um so that’s good. Uh, we talked about this, you know, when they acquired him, like even if the Mariners hadn’t gotten Josh Naylor, we assumed he was going to be very high on their on their big board for free agents on their wish list. And now they’ve had him for a couple months. They know he works in the clubhouse. Uh, they’ve said as much. They’ve said that he’s their priority. So, you really, really hope they get this one done. I don’t have a great feel for how the market’s going to go uh this year because of the lockout, how many teams are going to be less willing to spend because they’re quote unquote worried about not having, you know, not making money in 2027 or the TV deal, like all the excuses that will be used. Will that apply to the Mariners? It has in the past. So, uh, but I do think Naylor’s probably going to get somewhere in that 18 to20 million range for three to four years. Um, I think the shorter the deal, the bigger the AAV. And if the Mariners I think if the Mariners were willing to go five years, they’d get this done pretty quick. But I don’t think they’re going to be willing to go five. And I don’t really blame them for that. Uh, but I I expect them to be a very competitive offer. And I would say, if I was handicapping it today, I would say the Mariners have like a 60% chance to to resign Aaylor. I have a hard time seeing him not be in a Mariners uniform in 2026 and beyond. I’ll say that for whatever that’s worth, which isn’t a ton, but like I think most Mariner fans, it might be more devastating to them if Naylor was wearing a different uniform next year than you know game seven. Like talk about like Mariner fans em they embrace guys fast. They’ve really embraced Josh Naylor. Well, it’s that it’s also like you know it works. you know, he works in the ballpark. Like, you know, once you identify those guys, and there haven’t been too many of those guys that have come through here, like you kind of need to hold on to them as as much as you can. So, um, yeah, it would it would it would hurt like it would it would hurt a lot if they weren’t able to get this done. But, I I think they’ll get it done. I do I do think they I do think they will get it done. Let’s get it done early though, so we don’t have this hanging over our heads the entire winter. And also, just to put this out there, if not Josh Naylor, what’s the plan at first base? God. Yeah. Doing the Luke thing again. Giving Luis Srise 15 million bucks. Yeah. even though he’s only worth like five. Just just get this done. Yeah, exactly. All right. Well, that’s going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Errors podcast for Colobby Patode. I’m Titan Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at l__mers. You can follow me at Titan Gonzalez and Colby at CPAD1. That’s CPAT11. We’re also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby and the show at Lockdown Mariners. You can also find us on Instagram at Lockdown Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we’ll see you next time. Peace.

Ty and Colby take a look at the Mariners’ arbitration projections, react to Jerry Dipoto’s statements about the club’s 2026 payroll, and discuss what Josh Naylor’s contract could look like.

Find us on Twitter/X!

Ty: @TyDaneGonzalez
Colby: @CPat11
Locked On Mariners: @LO_Mariners

Follow us on Bluesky!

Ty: @tdg.bsky.social
Colby: @mlbcolby.bsky.social
Locked On Mariners: @lockedonmariners.bsky.social

Follow us on Instagram and TikTok @lockedonmariners!

Want more of Ty and Colby? Head to patreon.com/controlthezone for exclusive episodes twice a week!

Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…
🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOMariners?sid=YouTube

Locked On MLB League-Wide: Every Team, Prospects & More
🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnMLB

Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!5-Hour ENERGY
Enough with boring, flavorless caffeine, it’s time to give your caffeine a flavor upgrade with 5-hour ENERGY®️ shots. Get the favorites you love or be bold and try something new in-store and online at https://www.5hourENERGY.com or Amazon today.

Nutrafol
See thicker, stronger hair with less shedding in just 3–6 months with Nutrafol. For a limited time, get $10 off your first month’s subscription and free shipping when you go to https://Nutrafol.com and enter the promo code LOCKEDONMLB.

Zippix
Go to https://ZippixToothpicks.com and use promo code LOCKEDON for 10% off your first order. Zippix Toothpicks—energy and focus, anytime you need it.

PrizePicks
Download the PrizePicks app today and use code LOCKEDONMLB to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup.
PrizePicks — Run Your Game.
Click Link Here: https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONMLB

Monarch Money
Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONMLB at https://monarchmoney.com/lockedonmlb for 50% off your first year.

Gametime
Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.

FanDuel
Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Football season is around the corner, visit the FanDuel App today and start planning your futures bets now.

FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)