Can the Phoenix Suns make the play-in?

Can the Phoenix Suns make the play-in?

This particular simulation by our next particular guest had the Phoenix Suns in the playin tournament and Gamble was very excited about it and said we have to we have to light the bat signal. We do have that bat signal fire up the bat signal into the sky and we have to call upon Kevin Pelton the man responsible for said prediction and for said simulation. And joining us right now welcoming him back to the show for the first time this NBA season. We love him. We talk to him a lot. He’s our guy from ESPN, Kevin Pelton. and he joins us here on Burns and Gamble. Glad to see that the bat signal found you. Well, Kev, it’s it’s amazing it it made it through. There’s a lot of clouds today, a lot of rain in the Pacific Northwest, but you know, somehow I can still tell. And how excited are you guys to have uh simulations to talk about once again? Okay. Okay. First off, first off, f first off, we feel for the Mariners. We wanted them to win with Naylor and Suarez. We we we do feel we wanted the Mariners to win. That’s number one. Number two, the mo the thing we’re most excited about is not simulations. It’s the fact that Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal aren’t on our team anymore. So, that is the number one thing. What do you Hey, what’s what most excites you about the Suns? Durant and Beal are not here. Like, that’s the most addition by subtraction. Okay. Then we get to the simulations because me and my my partner here, we have a bet, a very big bet, like a very big lunch bet. Not the type that’s going on right now in the NBA type of betting with the mob and poker and but we we have a very yeah we have a very big bet on I think the Suns will be better than they were last year and he doesn’t. So when you run a simulation and you’re like the Suns in the playin I’m like I’m all over that because like it just backs up my theory that they’ll be better than they were last year. Yeah, it sounds about right. Anything that confirms your prior is uh could be exciting. I I think you know it is ridiculous to say like oh they’re going to you know Bradley Beiel at this stage of his career is a different story but get rid of Kevin Durant who is still a very good player was still instrumental in the start that the Suns had here had last year before uh you know he suffered the injuries and everything kind of fell apart. But I do think there’s an element where so much went wrong last season that, you know, it can’t go that badly in some ways again. And I do think there is some underrated talent here. So I I don’t know for sure if I would take your side of the bet, but it’s a good bet. That’s why it’s a good one. It’s a good bet. I’m not looking for 50 wins. It’s it’s 37 wins or more and and it’s it’s a very expensive restaurant. We’ve already chosen to to be the place we we pay off this bet. So, it’s 37 wins or more he wins. Uh 35 or less and and I win. I think it’s going to be close. I think it’s going to come down to the last week of the season probably before we know. Uh as we we’ve got a long relationship with you going back to the bubble when we used to ask you to run the simulations and things like that. From your perspective though, uh what the Sun and it’s just one game so we’re not going to read a whole lot into that, but tell me what do you like about this year’s Phoenix Suns team? that I think everybody is a little bit, you know, this is maybe to to Gambo’s point, that everybody’s a little more bought into their rules than they were beforehand. And obviously there’s still, you know, we need to see how the whole idea of playing Jaylen Green at point guard is going to shake out. you know, the wing rotation and everything, but uh you know, I think there’s an enthusiasm that wasn’t there at the particularly in the second half of last season when this seemed like a slog and everyone was sort of, you know, hoping to just get to the finish line and, you know, I think that probably starts, you know, as much of a believer as I am in Mike Benhoer with the coaching change and just, you know, getting getting more buy in uh from that element and, you know, a a roster that that maybe, you know, is transitory but again has players who are more excited about the opportunity. Give me your thoughts. We had Dylan Brooks on our show yesterday and he brings something that they didn’t get with Durant or Beiel and they haven’t had since Paul and that’s leadership. He is a leader. Um and we had him on yesterday and he loves and embraces the role of villain. He’s going to do whatever he can. He’ll guard one through four. He’ll guard anybody that’s not a center and and take pride in it. Pride in it. Give me your thoughts on Dylan Brook because when you on the outside like Dylan Brooks, oh, I hate that guy. Then when he’s on your team, you’re like, “Oh my god, I love that guy.” That’s exactly what I was going to say. Yeah. Is is he’s the kind of guy that you want on your side and when you definitely don’t like him when he’s on the other side. But yeah, I mean, I think you go back to Memphis, you know, there were some things that that went wrong with the culture there. And I think a lot of that got attributed to him, which is part of why he ended up leaving and going to Houston and unrestricted free agency without really much of an offer from the Grizzlies. I I think what we’ve seen subsequently is uh maybe the issues in Memphis uh were not, you know, specific to Dylan Brooks or were created by Dylan Brooks. And in Houston, I think he was a big part of improving that culture. you know, is part of the veterans. Obviously, Fred Van Vleet a big part of that and Eay Adoka coming in as head coach, but you know, the the young guys really bought into that and people seem to follow him and you know, if he’s pulling in the right direction, you’re going to get everybody else behind it. Kevin Pelton from ESPN as our guest here on the Burns and Gambo Show talking NBA Suns are taking on the Clippers tonight at 7:30. You’ll hear the game here on Arizona Sports. A guy that we’ve talked a lot about early on in the season is Mark Williams. gave him good 24 good minutes the other night against Sacramento. They’re obviously being very very cautious with him. In your opinion, what how high is the upside on Mark Williams? If if and I know this is a big if, he hasn’t been healthy much his first three years, but if he is, what is the upside for a Mark Williams on this roster? Yeah, I think he can be an an average to above average starting center in the league. all the physical tools are there. The the finishing ability without question and that’s something that you know I’m sure the the Suns are really excited about uh you know as compared to a year ago when you were talking about Ysef Nerkich is your starting center and the difficulty that he had finishing around the basket. Besides the health piece, the other part of it is going to be the rim protection and being that consistent, you know, in the right place detering shots on a regular basis because that in Charlotte wasn’t always the case. but it wasn’t a very good defensive culture in Charlotte. Uh there were a lot a lot of issues at that end of the court for them the last couple of seasons. So, you know, I think this is an opportunity for him to sort of reset at the end and tried to, you know, make good of the the potential that we certainly saw at Duke and I think early in his NBA career at that end as well. Yeah, you know, we haven’t seen it yet. So, they didn’t play any of the rookies in game one. They didn’t play Kaman Malawatch. They didn’t play Rashier Fleming Fleming or Kobe Brea, but they do have seven guys 23 or younger. Nobody’s putting any of these players on, you know, everybody’s top 25 list. Although although Jaylen Green does fit into that category as well, so maybe. But like last year, Kevin, like they would they would we knew when they would play young athletic teams, they had no chance. Like they had no chance. And now they are younger. They’re more athletic. They’ve got more length. They’ve got more size. They can run up and down the court if they want to. I’m not saying that’s that again that’s going to lead to 50 wins, but it it should lead to just a much more competitive style of basketball for them. I think the other thing that’s sort of breaking in their favor, you look at the early part of this season is you worried at the start of the year like where are the winds going to come from in the West because of the fact the conference looked so deep. And it’s interesting because I guess the one team that we all agreed was going to be really bad in Utah was remarkably impressive and their opening night win over the LA Clippers. But you’ve got a lot lot of other teams in the West that have kind of gotten off not to shaky starts whether it’s due to injuries or other factors. I think, you know, Sacramento is a good example of that who Phoenix was able to take advantage of in the opener. So, yeah, I think there is an opportunity there to to be competitive for a playin spot. All right. So, so be honest. When when you when you published on ESPN.com the simulation that had the Suns in the playin tournament, you knew we were going to be calling, right? Absolutely. You you know, you knew it, right? And and that was one simulation of how many you ran, Kevin. Just curious that that was a thousand. That was out of the Oh my goodness. How many out of That’s not the only one. Okay, let me let me just What percentage out of the thousand had him as one of the top 10 seeds? Any idea or No, you know, I did not look at that actually because I was so focused on just writing about that one particular one. But I guess it’s probably in the ballpark of about 10%. 10% chance to be a play in. Okay. Okay. Cuz because I cuz I and I know what you It’s cool. It’s I know what you do. You’re like, “Okay, I run a thousand simulations. I’m just going to randomly pick number 620, and I’m going to write about the crazy things that happened in it, which memory serves, it was Orlando and Golden State in the NBA Finals, I think was the was the one that you wrote about. It just so happened that the Suns were in the playin. So, um, you think about 10% of the time you’re guessing is how many of your simulations had the Suns in the Playin tournament.” Yeah. just knowing where their projection is overall and sort of the spread that’s inherent in it. I think it’s around 10%. Yeah, I I did look at one other simulation and I don’t think anyone won more than 55 games in that one. So, I was like, well, that one’s going in the uh the trashy. We’ll go with this second one. But I I hadn’t done the playoffs when I chose it. So, uh Orlando coming out as a champion was as much a surprise when I was, you know, finishing up and as it as it was to everybody who read the story. I’m sure it was. Kevin, you know, we appreciate you and coming on and putting up with the with the two of us. So, thank you. I’m sure we’ll be talking to you at some point again during the season, man. Have a good one. Well, you’ll probably need me to run the simulations on the chances of winning the bet. So, yeah, we’ll stay tuned on that. We should run a whole bunch of simulations that haven’t beaten the Rockets the first time they play him and then we’ll have you on. Thanks, Kev. We appreciate it. All right. Thanks for having me, Kevin from ESPN.com. He’s a good sport to put up with us. Thanks for watching Burns and Gambo. Click to see more from the guys and hit the button in the middle to subscribe so you never miss a video from Arizona Sports.

Burns & Gambo talk to ESPN NBA/WNBA writer Kevin Pelton about a simulation he ran which has the Phoenix Suns making the play-in.

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