Can Dylan Cease Recover From His DISASTROUS Season With Padres?

Can Dylan Cease Recover From His DISASTROUS Season With Padres?

On today’s show, many are calling it the worst lease clutch contract year season for a starting pitcher of all time. That’s right, the season in review for one sir Dylan C’s going over the good, the many, many bad, and how I think his free agency process is going to play out among many other things. Let’s get to it. [Music] You are Locked on Padres’s your daily San Diego Padres’s podcast, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. Greetings, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to another edition of Locked On Padres’s podcast, which is part of the Lock Podcast Network, your team every day for Thursday, October 23rd. As always, I’m your host with sometimes the most, Javier Reyes. And I’ve been covering this team for six years now and soon to be seven for not just this podcast, but various other outlets, including justbaseball.com, chief among them. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the app today. Go check that out. You can also check me out on the socials, Javapanojav iOS blue sky, whatever you want to do. Uh, today’s episode guys, it’s the seasoned review for Dylan Cece. Um, dare I say, I think in a lot of ways one of the more fascinating ones because I think Dylan sees had a season that is bad. Spoiler alert, every Padres’s fan knows that. But an interesting season in terms of like what happens when you face a decision of whether or not the numbers support that you’re going to be better in the future versus seeing what you saw with your eyeballs. So it’s going to be really interesting. I’m excited. Let’s waste no more time. Let’s get into it. Dylan CE on the year. The main thing you need to know finished with a 4.55 RA over across 168 innings. Uh he produced 3.4 wins above replacement which is pretty actually dang good. Uh if you like using war for pitchers. I personally don’t. I think it’s dumb, but uh and frankly why it’s dumb is the fact that he had a war nearly as high as Nick Paveta, by the way. War for pitchers. The reason I don’t like using it um which I know that it sounds this is like a um what’s the word? Um it’s an oxymoron. The fact that I say I don’t like the stat even though I used it. Um just because sometimes they use too many of the expected stats to determine whether or not um someone was that good, right? So like they use they look at what could have been instead of what they just did that year. And I think that that’s very foolish. But uh overall he finished second on the team in war only.3 behind Nick Pavetta. Um and there’s a couple reasons for that. Now here’s the thing. We’re going to start off with all the good. And it’s not like there is a ton of good frankly for Dylan Cece this year, right? That’s that’s not going to shock anybody. But it’s still something we got to talk about. First of all, 4.5 RA like it’s bad, but it’s not the worst disaster case in the world. when you look at some of the other good things that Dylan Ces did, which the biggest thing is he’s still one of the best strikeout artists in baseball and probably was one of the better ones overall in general uh in the sport, which is what makes him such a fascinating pitcher and frankly what makes his bad 2025 season. So disappointing, right? He had one of the best strikeout rates in the league, 29.8% strikeout rate, and that trailed only behind Garrett Crochet and Tariq Scooball, right? Crochet 31.3 and Scooball 32.2. That’s like that’s pretty good company to be in, right? So Dylan CE in terms of the swing and miss. Uh clearly is still there. Clearly like he was third in strikeout rate. He has a decent fast ball velocity. He can hit you with a slider. He’s going to be able to go after you and get strikeouts. Like that’s just something that he’s going to do. And he’s been one of the most consistent pitchers in all of baseball when it comes to that. Right. since 2021. He’s also uh seventh among uh starting pitchers among all starting pitchers in total innings pitched. So basically, this is a guy who has a 27 maybe 26 to 30% almost strikeout rate every year and is consistently giving you a lot of innings. That’s great, right? We love that. Also, the more advanced stuff, he had a higher whiff rate this year and a higher chase rate, right? like he was actually getting opponents to swing outside the zone more than usual and they were not making contact with stuff in the zone sometimes when it came to his fast ball and his slider especially, right? And that’s good. And it actually is very interesting the fact that he had a bad season despite the fact that the strikeouts were still there and he generated more swing and miss and he generated more chasing on pitches outside the zone. That’s like pretty wild that he still had a bad season despite that. His expected stats were also very good, right? He had a 3.46 46 expected erra and a 3.56 fib and XFIP. Uh, same thing there, which tells you that, yeah, maybe he got a little bit unlucky or maybe this was really just a season from hell from him, right? And what I mean by that is, let’s say everybody who follows the Baltimore Ravens, right, team that isn’t playing well, if you follow the Chargers, teams that aren’t playing well, but to a degree you look at the ways that they maybe have lost and you’re like, dang, like that’s just it’s unfortunate. It’s just not your year. And I think that that might be what happened to Dylan CEO, right? Because of all the increase in the stuff that I talked about. Um, and also on top of the whiff rate, on top of the overall strikeout rate and chase rate stuff and the innings, he actually lowered his hard hit rate from last year. Opponents were not that, and this is a really surprising thing, right? This is actually it probably would blow a lot of people’s minds that he actually had a better hard hit rate than last year, right? Last year he gave up a hard hit rate of 38.6% which ranked in the 51st percentile. This year he was in the 72nd percentile with a 37.5% hard hit rate. That’s like that’s something, right? He still is someone who’s going to give up home runs and stuff like that. I’m not saying he’s a pitcher that all of a sudden is removing hard contact, but when you put all of that together, it makes CE’s season really fascinating. You got more strikeouts than usual. You got more chase, more whiff, and they also when they were making contact, it wasn’t as hard as it usually is. And I think that’s why I think for a lot of people that Dillis was so frustrating the season because if you just looked at those numbers you would say okay clearly he’s going to be good at some point this year. He’s going to have a bounceback but really that just never happened. The only time that it sort of happened was a little bit towards the end of the season. The last of the good things to say about Dylan CE right in September and October an RA of 3.12 right that was really good. Like he he really killed it across two 26 innings. he really finished the season strong. But in terms of the whole year, he only had two months when his erra was under one or I’m sorry below four, right? That was in May with a 3.71 and then in September, October with the 3.12. So he got slightly better in the first half because of such a great end to his season. And by the way, a pretty good playoff appearance, right? Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like he was a sensational appearance, but he executed the way that the team needed them to needed him to. 3.2 innings, I believe he had five strikeouts. did not give up any runs in that crucial game two for the Padres’s. So, them losing the series was not on him. Don’t get me wrong, the fact that they took him out after just 3.2 innings shows you how little trust that they had in him because they had been seeing that all year he was falling apart right when you thought he was finally uh showing that the the real Dylan CE was standing up. Um but that’s basically it for the positives, right? Overall, really good um expected stats, really good strikeout stuff, really good chase, really good whiff. Um lowered his hard hit rate. He had a pretty good playoff appearance, his best of his career, and he’s just consistent, right? He’s going to be a guy that goes out there, gives you a lot of innings and strikeouts. But then there comes the bad. And I think that when it comes to the bad of Dylan CE, it really I don’t know how other people are going to feel about the bad and whether or not that might actually make people more interested in him as a free agent or they might say, you know what, I don’t care about the numbers. I watched that guy this year. Every time you needed him to show up, he did not show up. So, we’re going to get into that in just one second, guys. But first, some sponsors. And the first one is our friends over at FanDuel. Ladies and gentlemen, you know about FanDuel. You know why? Because it’s the best play to go with offers you don’t want to miss. New customers can bet just $5 and get 300 in bonus bets back if you win your first bet. That’s right. Just pick the bet, whatever it is. You want to do parlays, you want to do a buddy simple buddy line, you want to do a point spread, you want to do player props, whatever you want, they’ve got it at FanDuel. And if that first bet hits, like I said, you’ll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use all across the app. Whether you’re a casual fan or love diving into the stats, FanDuel makes the game day experience so much better. So, what are you waiting for? Visit fanuel.com to download the FanDuel app today and get started. But we’re not done, folks. 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If I just told you all the things I mentioned before, the strikeout, the whiff, the chase, the hard hit rate going down, you would be like, “Oh my god.” Like, did Zillitis with the Sai Young this year? No. And here’s some of the reasons why. The first thing and most obvious thing, he was a strikeout artist, but he was also a walks artist, right? He had a 9.8% walk rate, up from last year, and it only um trailed behind José Sorano and Gavin Williams, 10.8 and 11.8, respectively. That’s right. He was third in strikeout rate, but also third in walk rate. A real Blake Snell type of a situation we got coming down here. But that’s not it. And I think that what really happened, right? You must be thinking, well, no hard hit rate, more strikeouts, but what what happened here exactly? He just gave up home runs at the worst time. He was he had the 25th highest home run per nine, which is home run rate of any starting pitcher, which by the way isn’t awful in a vacuum. There are good pitchers that had worse rates, right? Like Jacob Deg Gro, Joe Ryan. I think the problem more so with Dylan Ces, what happened this year was timing. That’s the way I look at it, right? Because when it comes to timing, this is a dude that just every single time you thought that he was about to show up, just completely faltered when it mattered most, right? Like that’s just what happened. His home run per nine, first of all, it it spiked actually in the second time through the order when Dylan C was facing the order to 1.16 and more importantly was 2.16 home runs per nine. That was insane. uh third time through the order. He was basically always giving up the big home run. And because of the walk rate, more often than not, they were three-run home runs, a two-run home run, and whatever it was, they were usually multiple people on base when he was giving up the home run. Whether it be the Mets game when, yeah, he struck out the side. And then what happens next inning? Base is loaded, gives up a grand slam, right? Like that’s just kind of what happened to him all this year. He had the 12th worst RA among all starting pitchers, their third time through the order. That’s right, the 12 worst. Once you got to the third time facing Dylan CE, there were only 11 guys that you wanted to face more than him. That’s unfortunately just what happened. And he also just in general had the 17th worst home run per nine uh over that stretch as well, right? Like this is just a guy that was uh getting killed. He gave up the home runs at the worst possible time. And if you want even more stats on that, he had the fourth worst clutch rating via fan graphs of any starting pitcher with the exception of Andre Palante of the St. Louis Cardinals, Kevin Gosman, and Sandy Alcantara, right? So, you might think, hey, Sandy Alcantara, that’s a decent name. Well, he was pretty bad this year, right? Like, uh, Kevin Gosman used to be very good, but and he had a little bit better of a season, I think, because he was able to limit some of the walks, right? That’s the thing. Uh, just because you don’t have a clutch season does not mean that you didn’t have a good season, right? There are teams that have won, let’s look at it from a team perspective, right? There are teams that have won 91s that had a horrible clutch rating, which meant that they were blowing people out and they were up by four a lot, but when it came to like the really close games, they weren’t good at winning close games. But that doesn’t always mean that you’re a horrible team. But in the case of Dylan Ces with the walks, with his home runs spiking, like I just said, with him having the worst the 12th worst RA among all starting pitches, third time through the order, that kind of sums it up. Fourth worst clutch rating. He was also, if you want to use another stat that emphasizes clutch, he had the sixth worth sixth worst win probability added. I can’t speak subtypes. Win probability among all starting pitchers. So, clutch rating fourth worst win properly added sixth worst. That kind of that kind of explains everything, right? And everyone knows it. And this is why Mike Schill, I think smartly, took him out so early in that playoff game. He went the 3.2 and he was like, I’ve seen what happens. I know what happens to you this year. You tend to give up the long ball. So that’s why they took him out, right? And there’s more to what I think that he struggled with. Why is it that maybe he wasn’t able to do that? Is it all fluky? Not entirely fluky. He did have some struggles mechanically and and whatnot. It wasn’t just like, “Dang, I happened to give up all my home runs uh at the worst time.” No, it was also that he generated less ground balls this season, right? That’s not great. Not great at all. Uh ground balls is one of the best things to produce next to strikeouts as a starting pitcher. Last year his ground ball weight was 40.3 and this year it was 37.3%. Now not a huge decrease and the 40.3 from last year it’s not like he was up there with the percentiles either. He’s going to be a guy that will give up some home runs and give up some line drives and all that stuff but the fact that it also decreased not the best of sides, right? That’s just unfortunate. And the other thing that I think happened here was his slider. This is the biggest point that I could find when it came to Dylan CE. Why was he struggling? Well, how I mean why was he giving up the home runs? His slider was one of the best pitches in all of baseball last year and it was one of the best sliders in general. It had a plus 25 run value in 2025. And by the way, it’s always pretty good before that. Plus five run value in 2023 and plus 35 run value when he almost won the scion in 2022. He only had a plus4 this year. This might be worrisome going forward because it makes you wonder did he just have like a couple years where that pitch is carrying him? does that pitch have to have? For those who don’t know, run value is kind of like the value that a pitch was on a season given certain situations, right? So like given how was it in when a man is on first base, right? How was it when they were they able to make it second base? It’s almost like a success rate thing, right? And plus 35 is insane and plus 22 is insane. And a plus four for run value for any pitch is really really good. Like that’s that’s a solid thing to uh to give up. And yet he still struggled. So that makes me wonder, does his slider just have to be absolutely incredible for him to be successful given the fact that he doesn’t really have that much of a third pitch? He lost two inches of vertical drop on the slider this season. And his sweeper as well, which he doesn’t use nearly as much, but his sweeper that he started to use a little bit also lost 5 in of drop. It wasn’t breaking on guys just as much. And what do we always talk about? What do when you’re watching baseball games, you guys have probably heard the term a hanging slider. It hung up too much, right? That’s what happens a little bit. He does not have the horizontal break and certainly did not have the vertical break to make up for the fact that it can hang sometimes and the fact that he doesn’t have that third pitch, right? Yes, he his his third pitch hasn’t been very good in the past, right? But even still, it seems like he’s a guy where his fast ball isn’t isn’t wipe out. This isn’t a Brian Woo level fastball. This isn’t a heck, sometimes that’s a Cortez’s fast ball, right? This isn’t one of those guys. Um, so he needs that slider to be breaking a lot more. It lost some inches this year. It just wasn’t exceptional. It was just very good. And that make would make me worried as a fan if my team was going after Dylan C’s thinking. So, it’s almost like he just has to be amazing. It’s kind of like say a player who doesn’t walk and only hits home runs and strikes out a lot. It’s like damn, I’m really hoping that he’s able to keep up the home run stuff. In Dylan Cis’s case, you’re really hoping that that slider is going to break at the perfect time when he’s facing opponents, right? And I also am wondering I’m wondering from this year, was he in his head too much? I’m wondering if that’s a part of why he struggled this year, right? Trying to figure out more than two pitches. He got lit up in the postseason last year. And a big conversation was he needs to add a third pitch for teams that kill fast balls, right? Because if they’re killing fast balls, then you’re sitting there going, “Uh, I better hope that my slider is just god tier super saiyan mode. Otherwise, I’m screwed.” And they’ll just wait for you to throw that fast, right? they just won’t chase your stuff outside the zone. Um, and it’s possible that maybe he got in his head because early on in the season and in general in the season, he tried to diversify his repertoire a lot more, right? He threw more sinkers this year, 5%. He threw 3.5% of sweepers, a change up 1% of the time, so we’re not going to count that one. But he did try to use those pitches to wiggle out of jams. As opposed to previous years where he was fast ball, slider, and a little bit of knuckle curve, and that’s kind of it. he diversified it a little bit more, especially early on in the year. He threw like 12 change ups in one of his first starts of the year and he threw 12 in total last year pretty much, right? Like that was the big thing about Dylan season. I’m wondering was he saying did someone tell him we need to work on that third pitch so that way not only can he be a better pitcher but also look even more appetizing in your contract year in free agency. And I’m wondering if that was some pressure uh with with the free uh with with free agency coming up is did that screw him up? Did that throw him off his game and make him overthink things? It’s totally totally possible in my opinion. So that’s all the bad of Dillis and I want to do my conclusion now for Dillis and how I felt about his season and why I think he’s going to be one of the more fascinating free agents because I think it totally depends on what team acquires him whether or not they’re going to be happy. But first, let me talk to you guys real quick about one of our sponsors and that is our friends over at Prize Picks. You know them, you love them. And here’s the thing about prize picks, right? Every day we make decisions, but on prize picks, these can get you paid. 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So download the prize picks app today and use code locked on MLB to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. That’s code locked on MLB for $50 in lineups after your first $5 lineup prize picks. It’s oh so good to be right. And just like that everybody, we are back here thriving and vibing on the Lock Padres’s podcast. We’ve been player reviewing. We’ve been talking about the good and the bad of Dylan CE and now I just want to give my overall thoughts, right? Bottom line is this was it was bad, right? Like it was bad. It was really bad, right? I think it’s the I think the reason that this season was so bad because in a vacuum you look at this and say, “Okay, well, he struggled a little bit, but there’s still some good peripherals there.” And at the very minimum, sometimes we underestimate how much just having guys that could fill in innings and be consistent and give you some value and occasionally look like a superstar. Like how much value that is for teams, especially in a very starting pitching star ofves uh baseball economy that we currently have right now, right? That’s just what kind of breaks down. But I think that one of the worst things, and I didn’t put this in the bad section, but on top of the clutch rating in general, let’s remove that from just how he did this year in context of just going on the field every day, but also how much the Padres’s in particular needed him, right? With Joe Musgrove being down, with Darvish being down, with Michael King basically being down for most of this season, right? They basically were relying on Nick Paveta who came through, right? We talked about him on Tuesday. He came through, right? Go check out the player review for Nick Petta. It was a fun one, too. Um, really fun deep dive, but then he he every single time they needed this man, he could just not come through. The bullpen was starting to get taxed. You you went into games as a Padres’s fan being like, “Dude, do I trust Randy Vasquez more than Dylan CE? Not nearly as talented as Dylan CE.” And probably a player that it would it will not surprise anybody if heading into next year he gets completely lit up in the expected numbers uh kick in for him. But that’s that’s just what happened this year. It was just really not clutched. You know, losing on Roki Suzaki as well. Part of this all these sort of things, the high payroll, you know, and and it’s a contract year since when do guys have this bad of a contract year? I actually remember at one point this year I went back and looked from like since 2013, the worst contract year performances. Dylan Case was one of the like three worst ones that I saw genu. I think another one was like Carlos Gomez or something like that. And I was also taking into account if they were good. By the way, if you’re a bad player and it’s your contract year, it’s a little bit different. But for a guy who was this good, a guy who finished top 10 young voting, it was just it was really disastrous and it really hurt them. Does it change the season? Does it mean that they win the wild card series if he was on fire? I don’t know. Does it mean that they win the division if he actually pitched a lot better? Maybe. That’s just how the cookie crumbles sometimes. But in terms of him as a free agent, first of all, spoiler, no. I do not think that he’s coming back. Not just in terms of what I think, but also if you look up reports, Dennis Slid of the Athletic being like, “Yeah, he’s probably not coming back.” And the reason for that is also because he’s a Scott Boris client. And I think what could happen this off season is that he could get one of those LeBron deals. He could get the Blake Snell deal where he goes out three years, 80 million, whatever, three years, 65 million, whatever it is, and waits to cash in next year, right? He goes out, balls out for the Cincinnati Reds, whatever, right? and then comes back out and they’re like, “Okay, we’re gonna opt out from the rest of these years and now get our big payday.” Similar to what Blake Snell did. And you might be wondering, “But Jav, why in anyone would would anyone want a guy like this, right? It’s just the innings and strikeout, man.” Right? He’s always going to be a highly desired target because of that. You just don’t have pitchers like that. So, teams are going to say, “You know what? We can help you develop a third pitch. We can make sure that you’re not relying on this slider being otherworldly in order to be successful. We know that you were a little bit fluky this past year, especially in a ballpark that doesn’t that’s not very conducive to home runs. We think you were really unlucky and we’re in your head and just happened to give up home runs at the worst possible time and we’re going to fix that, right? Because we know you have the talent and you’ve been very good before and we love guys that give us innings of strikeouts, right? I think it’s just the kind of season that like if you’re projecting optimistically, it was basically like if Blake Snell was horrible in the clutch this past year, right? Like take the 2023 season for Blake Snell, right? He was walking batters all the time, right? He was walking batters all the time, but he made up for it by striking out everybody. He had one of the best stretches that anybody had ever had in 2023. Literally like Bob Gibson type stuff. He had like I think it was a a start. It was something like his no one has ever had a 15 start stretch as good as Blake Snell with the exception of Bob Gibson. Like it was that crazy, right? So amazing stuff. One major difference of course between those two that Blake Snell is better at generating ground balls, right? So a lot of teams are going to be more interested in a player like that that suggests, okay, it’s walk, strikeout or ground ball for you. That’s great, right? Like you could take the ground balls or I’m sorry, you could take the walks if they’re able to produce such swinging and miss like that. Um, and with the with the ground balls being down for him, with the fact that you might be worried about all the things I talked about, it’s possible that I think, not even possible, he will be be signed and he will be one of those top tier free agents. I think it all depends on where he goes. If you’re a team who needs a number two or absolutely if you’re a team that needs a number three, he’s going to be a nice get. All of you Yankees fans out there, you have Freed, you have Rodon, add Dylan CE. That’s a good ad. Even though that’s a little bit of a hitter friendly park, that’s a decent ad, right? If you’re a Blue Jays fan after this season, you’re saying, you know what, I’ll take him as a number three behind some of our guys. If you are, frankly, in a vacuum, if the Padres’s had enough money, you would be happy with him being your number three starter. I just think that that’s how it all depends on the role that he’s he’s going to. If you are a team that has been dying for pitching like the Baltimore Orioles and you go out and only get Dylan Ces to be your one, you better hope that Grayson Rodriguez is awesome because that could get a little bit out of hand. But those are my thoughts, guys. And I hope that you enjoyed the overall season in review for Dylan CE. It was a complicated season and I think that uh this is why we like looking at stats. But I also understand a lot of you who may leave comments being like, Javi, I don’t care about the stats. This dude didn’t show up. To that, I would say totally justified. I will say, remember, year-to-year variance in baseball is real. And with the things that we talked about on today’s show with the home runs at the worst time, what if they just don’t happen at the worst time? What if he’s giving up a solo shot instead and it happens in the first inning and he’s great throughout that, right? What if he just gives up a little bit less walks? I look at that and I say this is still a highly desirable free agent. Won’t be with the Padres’s, but for the Padres’s this year, this is like a C minus season, right? Like that’s just what he delivered. And it’s unfortunate because it’s possible they win the division if they got a good Dylan CE here. It’s possible. Uh but he really killed them all year long. And it’s unfortunate and is why I know that some of you have asked, did we really win the Sodo trade? Because Cease was terrible for us that second year. I get it. But overall, uh I can’t wait to see where he goes. Um and all of you Padres’s fans out there, do not be surprised. Um you could be upset, but don’t be surprised if next year he’s he’s pretty dang good again. delivers a 3.5 erra, 180 innings, and strikes out 27% of batters. That’s a top 15 pitcher, more or less, or close to it, right? Especially if he’s able to have those stretches that he had last year with the Padres’s where yes, he always will have those awful stretches where he’s getting four home runs like like given up to the Mets. But then he’ll also have those those stretches where it’s six innings, 10ks, no runs. Five innings, 8Ks, no runs. Six innings, two runs, 12ks. He will have like a three start stretch like that which is what makes him so desirable. But with that all being said guys that about does it officially for today’s edition of lockdown padre’s podcast. The only pod that may be better than the pod dre themselves. Remember to subscribe to wherever you get your podcast from. Um go check out the other player reviews. Right. We did uh Nicketta on Tuesday. Go check out my episode with Paul Hold of Lock on Rockies. That was a fun one. And tomorrow’s episode. It’s a fun Friday. No guest, but it’s a fun Friday in the sense that we will be doing the Louise Arise player and review, can’t wait to get into this one. And I imagine some of you, especially those who have been following the show and know my thoughts about Arise, will be excited to hear what I have to say. But until that next time, stay safe and of course stay faithful, my faithful homies, take care.

Dylan Cease’s 2025 season: A tale of strikeouts and struggles. Will the former White Sox ace bounce back in free agency?

Javier Reyes breaks down Cease’s rollercoaster year, highlighting his impressive strikeout prowess and consistent ability to throw innings. The analysis then jumps into the struggle side of things, from declining slider effectiveness, and clutch performance issues. Javi explores potential reasons behind the pitcher’s struggles and speculates on his free agency prospects. Could a short-term, high-value contract be in Cease’s future? Go Padres.

0:00 Intro: Dylan Cease’s season review
5:07 Surprising improvements despite struggles
10:13 The bad: walks, home runs, and clutch issues
15:16 Mechanical struggles
20:51 Impact on Padres and free agency outlook

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