DEEP DIVE: Tarasenko’s DECLINING Shot Rates REVEALED | Is Minnesota’s New Forward Already SLUMPING?

DEEP DIVE: Tarasenko’s DECLINING Shot Rates REVEALED | Is Minnesota’s New Forward Already SLUMPING?

On today’s episode of Locked Down Wild, if the Wild do pursue Art Tummy Paneran, does that constitute carbo loading? Hey, this is Matt Foldi and you’re listening to Locked on Wild. Hey, this is Marcus Fino and you’re listening to Locked on Wild. You’re Locked on Wild, your daily podcast on the Minnesota Wild, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. What’s happening everybody? Welcome in to another episode of Lockdown Wild, your daily Minnesota Wild podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. We are your team each and every day. We thank you for making Lockown Wild your first listen each and every day. As well, make sure you subscribe on YouTube and your favorite podcast platforms so you don’t miss out on any new episodes throughout the week. Today’s episode of Locked Down Wild is brought to you by FanDuel. Download the FanDuel app now by visiting fanduel.com and you could win $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. On today’s episode of Lockown Wild, we’re going to talk about shot rates for particular players. We’re going to talk about the combination of Caro Capri off and Matt Baldy and why keeping the two together leads to a nice bump for both players as you would expect. We’re also going to take a look at Vladimir Terasenko’s start to the season. Where do we think he’s at? He’s got one goal so far. How are things looking for the biggest acquisition for the Wild this off season? And we’ll talk about what everybody else has been talking about. Our Tammy Panaran, who has been linked to the Minnesota Wild now through two different NHL insiders. We’ll take a look at if that is a good idea or if that’s something that the Minnesota Wild should exercise a little pause on. My name is Seth Toppel, host of Locked on Wild, credentialed media member, host of Seth on Sports, bringing you credentialed access to the Minnesota Wild here this season once again. And uh bringing you this episode during the game against the New Jersey Devils. Uh it’s been a whirlwind of a week so far for me, so we’re getting caught up. And uh I wanted to just look cuz this was a uh this was something that I was kind of thinking about earlier in the week. Uh the combination of Carell Capri off and Matt Baldi. A combination that has uh so far done some things that uh that are very good. the results this year, you know, maybe not as good as they’ve been in years past, but um you know, it’s early in the season and the hope is that uh that combination will start to uh really cash in on some goals, but I I wanted to look cuz you know, the the logic says, well, if you can’t get the scoring going, you got to split those two up. You got to split them up. you got to move Matt Baldi down to the second line so that your scoring can uh be so you can even things out. You can deepen your lineup. And yes, that uh that may be, you know, that that may be the most obvious way to try to help out a second line that still is uh pretty cold. But let’s consider what each player has done with and without the other on their line. If you look at the uh combination of Carell Capri off and Matt Baldi their cory numbers which again are actions that influence a shots on net things along that line uh their cory four percentage together is 57%. Quzy events. There have been,00 and this is going back to the 2022 2023 season 1, 115 Cory events, just 828 against. So they’re they are possessing the puck 50% of the time. The goal share 52 goals four in that span, 38 goals against. So they have a 57% expected uh goals for percentage. Their expected goals for over that span has been 49. So they actually have been a few goals better than expected. And the goals for percentage with those two on the ice together is at 60%. 60% of the time if there’s a goal scored on the ice, it’s by the Wild. When those two are on the ice, 60% of the time if there’s a goal scored, it’s by the Minnesota Wild. Matt Baldi by himself in 238 games played. So this is basically this is encompassing the entirety of Matt Baldi’s career. 238 games played, his cory four percentage is just under 50%, 49.95. his goals. The goal differential 94 goals for 83 goals against. So plus 11 compared to plus 14. So you know plus plus three is not a huge number in the grand scheme of things but the metrics all have a sizable bump. Um, Baldi’s expected goals four over that span by himself, 99. So, he’s been below what’s expected as far as goals go. The goals for percentage 53%. So, that’s a 4% drop there. The goals expected goals for percentage is 51%. That’s a 9% drop. And it’s the same thing for Carroll Capri off. Carell Capri’s off by himself. His Corsy4 percentage is 51.8%. So that’s a just over a 5% drop. Now Carill the goal differential is plus 19 101 to 82. The goals for percentage is 55%. So Baldi gives him a 2% bump. Uh the expected goals for he has been way better than that. uh way better in that category. Expected goals for of 86% since 2022 for Carell Capri off compared to 101 actual goals scored. The goals for percentage 52%. So yes, you would expect that Carroll Capri off is going to give a bump to whoever he plays with, but it has been a nice little symbiotic between the two. They have both received a bump when they are on the ice together. Now, if you look at the numbers for this season so far with both of them on the ice, with uh both of them on the ice, they have a Corsy4 percentage of 57%. Basically exactly where it’s been at over the last three seasons. The goals is three goals for three goals against. Expected goals in that span is 4.22. So they’ve been slightly below what is expected in the first seven games of the season. Uh their expected goals uh their goals for percentage is 54%. Slightly below but again the num the peripheral numbers are pretty much all there. that we’ve seen over the uh the last few seasons. Now, if you look at them separated, Carrill Capri off’s Cory four percentage without Matt Baldi is at 37%. One goal against zero goals, four. So, Capri off’s numbers not great. Now, it hasn’t been a ton of time without Baldi. uh the one instance, the one couple of games that they got split up, um I think we uh we saw that come to an end pretty quickly. But what what I’m seeing so far this season is that both of them have developed a good chemistry together. And I think for the future of the team going forward, depending on what is uh depending on what happens with um players that you might acquire, we don’t really we we can’t really account for that. But I would think you would want to keep those two together, allow them to continue to build that chemistry because unless you acquire somebody a premier wing, Matt Baldi is probably going to be with Carell Capri off for the foreseeable future, you would hope. But if that second line scoring continues to not get fixed, then you may be forced to split them up, which as we’ve seen so far this season, not as effective as they have been as a duo. Now, a lot of their production has been on the power play so far, but still that still accounts for them being in the same unit together, and so you’re still fostering that chemistry. And honestly, whether it be Joel Ericen or Marco Rossi as the center that those two have still been able to uh generate high um high numbers as far as the, you know, the Corsy and the shots go. They’ve been able to uh to generate quite a bit um in both of those categories. So, uh, it it’s going to be interesting to see who settles in as that topline center now that Marco Rossi is back. Does he, you know, work his way back into that spot? Do they stick with Juel Erikson up there? Remains to be seen. But, uh, I think so far what we’ve seen is that this team is in desperate need of a consistent third option, fourth option, somebody on that uh, somebody to round out that top six. Um, it’s too good of a combination to uh, to have to split up because you can’t get um because you can’t get consistent scoring on that second line. So worth monitoring as the season unfolds. We will of course do that for you here. One of those players on the second line that we are going to uh talk about next is Vladimir Teroseno. How has he been doing so far this season? We’ll take a look at the numbers. We’ll confirm or refute what the eye test has shown us. We’ll t take a big dive into Vladimir Terasenko as we continue today’s episode of Locked on Wild after this. 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Today’s episode of Lockdown Wild is also brought to you by Rouette. Let’s be real. Making excuses doesn’t solve anything. We’ve all heard them before. It’s just stress. I’m tired. Or it happens to everyone sometimes. But when it comes to performance, sometimes your body just needs a little extra support. And that’s where Rouette comes in. rouette.com offers fast acting doctor prescribed treatments for ED designed to help you stop making excuses and start making moves. Rouette makes it easy to get started. You just connect with a boardcertified doctor, 100% online, no more awkward waiting rooms, no in-person appointments. If prescribed, your treatment ships discreetly straight to your door. Visit rugie.com/lockdownnhl to get 15% off your first order. That’s r ug.com/locktonnhl. And don’t forget to use our code lockdown NHL so they know we sent you. Rouette, stop making excuses and start making moves. Welcome back to today’s episode of Lock Wild. Once again, we thank you for making Lockdown Wild your first listen each and every day. Once again, make sure to like and subscribe on YouTube so you don’t miss out on any new episodes throughout the week. We’ve got you covered all season long right here on Locked Down Wild. So, uh, make sure to stick with us as we, uh, navigate through the ups and the downs of the NHL season. All right, let’s talk a little Vladimir Terasenko here because through the first seven games of the season, Terasenko has a goal. He has um four assists, five total points on the season. And Terasenko was brought in to try to plug that gap on the second line. So, point blank, has he plugged it? Well, so far, so far it’s been uh inconsistent to say the least. And so, I wanted to look at a couple of different things. Number one is Terasenko a notorious slow starter. Well, I went back to look at what he did last year and through the first month of the season, Terasenko had two goals, three total points. Through the first two months of the season, he had three goals and 10 total points on 39 shots. Not great. But let’s take into consideration what we know happened last year. Career lows across the board for Vladimir Terosenko. And that is not something that you want to see repeated. So if you back up even another year further, first month of the season, Terasenko had nine points, three goals, six assists. He had only three games in the month of October where he did not register a point. So you couple that in with the fact that he had just four assists in the month of November. So, all told, he had 13 points in the first two months of the season in uh 2020 uh3 2024. What about 2022 2023? Three goals, four assists, seven total points. He followed that up in November with two goals and six assists. So, all told, he had 15 points that year in the first two months of the season. So yes, that could be a potential for what we have seen so far, but I I don’t tend to think that that is the reason as to why we’ve seen what we have. Terraenko has had multiple shots on goal in one game so far this season. And in that one game, he had 50% of the shots on goal that he has had so far this season. He has 10 shots on goal through seven games. And if you look even further than that, so far this season, there are as far as shot attempts. Now, this is attempts, so this does not constitute the actual number. We’ll get to that in a second. This does not constitute the actual number that a player has during a game. This is the attempts based on 60 minutes of ice time. Matt Baldy leads the team with 23.9. So, he’s averaging roughly 24 shot attempts per 60 minutes with 10.4 shots on goal per 60 minutes. Carell Capri off has just under 12 uh just under 11 shots on goal per 60 minutes. Ryan Hartman has just under 12. There’s nobody else that has above. Julen is the only other player that has above five or above six. I beg your pardon. He has 8.2 uh shots on goal per 60. Vladimir Terosenko is currently averaging fewer shot attempts per 60 minutes than Yakov Trenan. Think about that. Fewer shot attempts this season per 60 minutes than Yakov Trenan. Well, Terasenko played more of a defensive position last year. I I don’t know if that is the case. If you look at what he did last year, shot attempts per 60 minutes, 14.26, which was seventh best on the team behind Alex Debrink, Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kaine, Craig Smith, Lucas Raymond, Elmer Soderblum. Those were the six players that had more. His 6.75 shots on goal was eighth on the team. And the only player who uh the only players who had more shots on goal but fewer shot attempts, Marco Casper and Austin Watson. So 14.26 shot attempts per 60 minutes. Roughly seven shots on goal per 60 minutes for Vladimir Terosenko. It came down to the accuracy last year. Just was not accurate. He didn’t take a ton of attempts, but his numbers this year even less than what they were last year. And if you look at some of the advanced metrics that uh that the NHL tracks for player performance, his uh foot speed is nothing to write home about either. Uh one of the slowest players in the league. Now, was speed a calling card of Vladimir Teroseno’s previously? probably not a huge one, but basically what we’re seeing so far could be one of two things, two possible options that uh that pop into my head as to what is causing this because he’s been he’s been pretty automatic for about one shot on goal per game from that spot. So is it the scheme that is just just not asking that position to shoot or did we get Vladimir Terasenko on the way down? Something to ponder. But just based off of some of the based off of some of the peripheral numbers, the eye test certainly matches what the stats are telling us, which I think is even more bad news. It’s early and he has certainly had some bigger months later in the season, but it’s one thing to be letting it fly, letting it rip a ton and not being able to find the net. It’s another thing entirely to really not be scoring, not be shooting the puck at all. same same person just in a different body basically on that uh that second line. So that’s something that I’m going to be keeping an eye on more as we go forward because I really it’s really intriguing. I I thought the numbers last year were due to him just being in kind of a a defensive position. He’s actually shooting less this year than he did last year, which is not great. Uh, I want to finish because a couple of different NHL analysts have talked about the possibility of one, Arti Paneran being a possibility for the Minnesota Wild. So, as other shows have, we’ll hop in and discuss as we finish today’s episode of Locked on Wild after this. Today’s episode of Locked on Wild is brought to you by FanDuel. 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Once again, we thank you for making Lockdown Wild your first listen each and every day. Again, make sure to uh like and subscribe so you don’t miss out on any new episodes throughout the week. we uh got you covered as the season unfolds right here on Locked on Wild. So, two reports. The first from one Frank Cervali regarding our Tammy Paneran and the Minnesota Wild. I could see that. I think that would make a ton of sense. If you could find a way to make a reasonable deal for Paneran, I think they could make it an interesting fit. Elliot Freriedman today. I’ve actually wondered if Minnesota could be a team here. They’ve promised Capri off they will go out to get better. Part of me wonders if there’s a short-term deal that makes sense. Bill Garren actually uh talking with the uh FanDuel Sports Network broadcast booth as uh as we do this, ironically enough. But here are a couple of things. Here are a couple of things to consider. Number one, in order for that to take place, the odds are pretty likely that the New York Rangers would have to be out of it. And I, at least for me, feels like if the New York Rangers are out of the playoff picture by the trade deadline, feels like our Tammy Paneran might be one of the culprits. One of the reasons as to why. And I’m pretty firm on the fact that I don’t think it’s a good idea to inject players into a new roster that are not themselves playing well. How’d that work last year for Justin Brezo and Gustaf Nyquist? They were both ice cold when they came in. Guess what? They stayed ice cold. So, I just am not a huge favorite. I’m not a huge supporter of the idea of, hey, this player is struggling, but we could be exactly what they need to get going. I know in some cases, you have a player who is in a situation that they’re kind of frustrated by and getting them to a new position uh could lead to them um you know, finding finding a little lease on life, little second chance opportunity. So, I get that. I get that that is in some cases that’s a practical approach to take, but I feel like with what we have seen so far from the Minnesota Wild, if you are going to bring somebody into this, you need somebody that is huming on all cylinders that can inject some life into this team. Now, that’s not to say that that is 100% how it’s going to play out. there could be some injuries that take hold between now and the deadline to where the Rangers just can’t do it. They they had a season like that last year. So, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. But the other part of this is what are the New York Rangers going to want in return? They’re going to want probably some combination of NHL talent and close to NHL talent. Now, the Wild have a good amount of prospects and draft picks to use should they need to go out and get somebody. Our Tammy Paneran is 33 about to turn 34. He turns 34 in eight days. So far this season, he has two goals, seven total points in eight games, shooting 10.5%. He shot 15.6%. Last year, he had 37 goals, 89 points. The year before that, he had 49 goals and 120 points. He is a merchant on the power play. 11 goals last year, eight 11 goals two years ago, eight the year before. But what do we know about players that are in their mid30s? At some point, at some point, you start to come back down the the wrong end of the mountain, the wrong side of the roller coaster. So, it would be it would certainly be a risk. The Wild could they could get the salary on the books. The salary is not an issue. They could get the salary on the books. They’re going to have money to play with at the deadline, but based on what it sounds like our Tammy Paneran’s camp wants for an extension, I you can’t fit that on the books next year. So he would be he’d be a rental unless he takes a massive discount to come to Minnesota. And if we learned anything from the Carell Capri off contract situation, discount Minnesota do not those are two words that are not used in the same sentence at least right now. So ultimately there will I I’m I am pretty confident that there will be a move of some sort made but I don’t know if our Tammy Paneran is that move unless he is playing absolutely unless he’s playing absolutely out of his mind and you can get a little bit of a deal on him But I don’t get the sense that you’re going to get any sort of a deal. And who who are you going to end up sending to New York? Probably Liam Ogrren, if the Rangers even want it. Probably Marco Rossi. Like it just it feels like a situation where you would end up giving up way too much for a guy that you would only have for the rest of the season and then he’s going to go he’s going to go somewhere else. Now, he does want I I would assume that he would like to play with Carell Capri off. They’re pretty good friends, but would he want to come to Minnesota? That’s the other thing. Patrick L didn’t. Brock Besser wanted to stay in Vancouver. Brock Nelson wanted to stay in Colorado. I just am looking forward to seeing who else links our Tammy Paneran to the Minnesota Wild here over the uh the next few days because where there’s smoke, there’s fire. But I I’ll be I’ll be surprised if this ends up being the move that the Wild make because it doesn’t uh it doesn’t really fit Bill Garren’s move mo either. you know, he has been one that has added more depth scoring, physical play, or so we or so we think. That’s been more of his mo than a real frontline guy. Now, to be fair, he hasn’t had the ability to go make one of those types of moves over the last few years, and now this year, he finally does. So, we don’t really know what Bill Garren would add with no sorts of constraints, but just like with just like what we’re seeing with Terasenko so far, there is certainly some risk in adding a guy that is like that. I do think I do do think Paneran still has a little bit more left in the tank for sure, but we’ll have to see. We’ll have to see what ends up uh being the route that the Wilds go um to uh to try to improve this roster. That is going to do it for today’s episode of Lockdown Wilds. Again, make sure to like and subscribe so you don’t miss out on any new episodes throughout the week. And uh we’ll have another one coming up for you here. Again, we’re recording these during the game against the Devils. We’ll release them after the game is done. uh just so you’re not having to try to contend with both. But um we’ll we’ll take a look at the power rankings for our next episode. So make sure to like and subscribe so you don’t miss out on any new episodes throughout the week. We’ve got new episodes for you every Monday through Friday as part of the Locked On podcast network.

The Minnesota Wild’s dynamic duo of Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy continue to shine, boasting impressive Corsi numbers and goal-sharing percentages. Vladimir Tarasenko’s slow start raises questions about his fit on the second line. Are the Wild eyeing Artemi Panarin as a potential trade target?

Host Seth Toupal breaks down shot rates, line combinations, and potential roster moves. Tarasenko’s shooting woes and Panarin’s rumored link to Minnesota take center stage. Dive into the stats, strategies, and trade speculation surrounding the Wild’s quest for offensive firepower.

Get the inside scoop on how John Hynes might optimize his lineup and what moves Bill Guerin could make to bolster the team’s Stanley Cup aspirations. Hockey fans won’t want to miss this in-depth analysis of the Wild’s early-season performance and future outlook.

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