Former MLB GM makes Padres free agent contract predictions

Former MLB GM makes Padres free agent contract predictions

All right, Jim Bowen in the athletic. He put together the contract predictions, his predictions for free agents around baseball, some of the top free agents in baseball. And there are some Padres’s on this list. And so I want to go through these and let me know in the comments. Let me know your thoughts. Would you bring the Padres’s free agents, these Padres’s free agents, would you bring them back for this money? So let’s start with Dylan CE. Six years, $187 million was the prediction from Jim Bell. For me, the obvious that that is an obvious no. I don’t want him pitching in big games and he actually did his job at Wrigley, so I will give him credit there. But still, I don’t trust him to pitch in the biggest games. Like, especially if they’re going to go up against the Dodgers, let’s say, I don’t trust him pitching in those games. Why would I give that guy over $30 million a year for six years? No, thank you. I don’t even think I need to elaborate very much on this one. like sure he gives you innings, he’ll give you starts, but and the the potential that’s worth over 30 million a year for 6 years. I’m good. I’d rather go shortterm on maybe some other guys that I’m like I can rely on that guy more in bigger games, even if it’s not for six years. Michael King, three years, 75 mil. I would do that. I know that there’s the health question. what happened this past season. Um, he hasn’t he doesn’t have the starting track record that Dylan Cece does have, but I see that upside talent there in Michael King and it’s not over $30 million a year and it’s not for six years. And Michael King, I think, is the better starting pitcher. If both guys are healthy and both guys feel good, who do who would I rather throw out there in a big postseason game? I’m throwing Michael King out there. There’s no doubt. I’m not even thinking about it. So 25 mil a year, the money that’s freed up from the Hosmer contract, obviously Arise, Suarez, Cease, like these guys potentially not coming back. There’s money here that you can go spend. I know like the Paveta contract, right? There’s more money there this year than there was last year. But there is that money for three or 75. There’s money to bring back Michael King. And maybe the Padres’s could get creative a little bit and, you know, give him more money in the the last couple years of this deal. If it’s a three-year deal, Keller does like to do that. He we we saw it with the the Nick Paveta deal. Um, you can work with that with Michael King. Now, I I don’t see Michael King signing for three or 75 because what I would see there in that situation is there’s going to be a bidding war because there are teams that believe in Michael King and his ability. It’s not just the Padres’s. I guarantee you it’s not just the Padres’s. So, I I just don’t see how the final number is going to be 3 or 75 million. I think it’s going to be bigger than that even after this this injury type, you know, the the the question marks coming off of this season. Robert Suarez, four years, $80 million. Four years to me seems a little bit too much and $20 million a year. Sure, he’s one of the best closers in baseball, but Are you going to get the same Robert Suarez for the next four years? That’s a question you got to ask. And with AJ, assuming AJ Per stays, he’s got a track record of having a strong bullpen and having a strong closer regardless of who is on the roster. The bullpen is a strength of AJ. So, I have confidence that even if Robert Suarez goes, he’s going to have a strong closer. I don’t know what the Mason Miller situation’s going to look like. Is he going to be starting? Is he is he gonna be, you know, that that high leverage guy or is he gonna end up being the closer? I’d prefer Mason Miller to be the high leverage guy and not be the closer. I want him pitching in the biggest situations, not just, you know, pigeonhold for that ninth inning like Robert Suarez was for every outing it seemed like this year for the most part except in the in the postseason. um when he came in really early in that game. Suarez is talented, but for 20 million a year for four years, it would be one thing if it’s a couple years. For four years, I’m just going to trust AJ Prowler’s abilities to go build a strong bullpen even without Robert Schwarz. Ryan O’Harn two years 24 mil. That’s reasonable for someone I think they probably should have given him more at bats this season. That’s that’s someone that can be a really strong middle order of middle of the order bat for you. Lefty, he’s got some pop. He can hit line drives and gaps. He can play multiple spots. He can play the outfield. He can play first base. DH obviously 12 mil a year. I don’t think that’s too bad. Now maybe AJ makes a trade somewhere and you can get a Ryan O’Harn type bat maybe somewhere from another team and it’s cheaper but two years 24 I feel like that’s pretty reasonable. So at that price I’d say yes. Um this year obviously I don’t think that we saw fully what Ryan O’Harn can give the Padres’s. I I think they could have given him a little bit more of an opportunity though. the guy, he still finished the year um with 17 homers, OPS over 800, 25% above league average with the OPS plus. Um his numbers with Baltimore were better, significantly better than they were with the Padres’s, but he had 94 games with the Orioles. He had 50 with the Padres’s. Way more played appearances with the Orioles. just a much bigger sample size. So, I would just like to see him get that consistent playing time with the Padres’s. And he’s a better pop option to put in there every day over someone like the next guy, Luis Arise. Two years, 30 mil. I’m not doing that. And I don’t think that the Padres’s want to do that either. I think if you’re the Padres’s, you want to keep Luis Arise. like in terms of a clubhouse guy, his bat to ball skills, like I know that there are fans out there that are not the biggest Luis Arise fan, but there’s a spot for him on the team if they’re not, you know, so fixed because Mike Schil’s not managing, so maybe it would change. If they’re not so fixed on playing him every day at the top of the order and playing him at first base all the time. If they’re not going to be so fixed with that, there’s a spot with there’s a spot for Luis on this team and if it’s not for 15 million. But we got to remember what he made in arbitration this past year was something that I think a lot of fans were like, “Yeah, don’t want to pay him that in free agency, but it’s arbitration, so we got to do it.” You know, I think it was around 14 mil that they paid him in arbitration this past year. That’s around the same on a on a two-year contract in this Jim Bowen contract prediction here. I I just don’t want to do that for a bat to ball hitter. I’d rather spend that 15 mil a year. That’s that’s pretty much the Ryan O’Harn. That 12 12 mil a year, you know. I’d rather spend that on someone like Ryan O’Harn and bring him back so you have that power more of a much more of a power threat than Luis Arise. I’d rather do that than bring Luis Arise back on that money. If it wants to be four years for 30 mil, obviously Luis Arise, his agent, I think it’s the same agent as Manny. Like, they’re going to want more. And maybe the Rockies will pay Luis Arise what he wants and give him 15 mil a year because they have money to spend. Maybe the Pirates will. I don’t know who would do it, but if you’re the Padres’s, you know, you need more power and someone can replace Luis Arise defensively at first base. It would stink to lose him, you know, as someone like in the clubhouse. He seems like a great human being, vibes, um, back to ball. Like, I did like at times watching Luis Rice hit for the Padres’s, but there were times where it was very frustrating where it’s like, “All right, stop looking at the pitches right down the middle and be aggressive. and he it’s not the hitter that he is with the power, but to have more of that ability is something that I want every day at first base this next season for the Padres’s. It just wasn’t there with Luis with Luis Rise. So, of these five guys, C6 187, King 3 years 75, Suarez 4 years 80 mil, O’Harn 2 years 24 mil, Arise 2 years 30 mil. Of these five guys, I’m not picking three. I’m picking two. I’m picking Michael King at three years 75 and then Ryan O’Harn in two years 24 to bring those guys back. And then starting rotation wise, bringing Michael King back will make me more confident in this rotation. They got Joe Musgrove coming back next year. Let’s remember that. I think you got to factor that in. Um, and then Ryan O’Harn, like that’s that’s a guy that I think if you give him the at bats, he can really help this team um in the the power department, which is where they need help. And it’s a lefty bat. So, I’d bring back those two guys. As for these other guys, cease, you can replace him. I know maybe you can’t replace him one for one in terms of the innings and he does stay healthy. So, I do give Dylan’s credit there and he does have potential and there’s some great starts, but you can replace him with multiple parts. You can’t. And you’re not giving him $187 million for six years. I’m just not doing that. Robert Wars, I trust AJ Prowller’s ability to build a bullpen. If uh Tanner Scott’s not in it, guess what? He’s still built still built the bullpen. you know, years and years and years that he’s built a bullpen, a strong bullpen with guys that have left, whether that’s Fernando Rodney, uh, Kirby Yates, Brad Hand, like you want to go down the line. He continues to turn out these great closers. And obviously having Mason Miller through like 2028, 2029, whenever that is, maybe that improves the rotation, maybe that keeps the bullpen strong. Got Jason Adam next year, too. Let’s remember that. I thought he was a free agent, but he actually is not. So, and I don’t know if he’ll be ready for the start of the year, but I would think he’d be ready at some point. And he’s one of the best relievers in baseball. So, you got still, you got Estrada, there’s some talent there. Bradley Rodriguez, there’s some talent there. And then there’s talent that Keller will acquire eventually. We know he will because it’s AJ. So, some of these guys, I’m like, “Yep, you can replace them for that price. I’m not doing that price.” And then a couple of these guys, I’m like, “Yeah, let’s do that.” because I think they can help the Padres’s win baseball games. I think it’s a reasonable price and it’s stuff that they need. Like Michael King, the dominance that he can give you when he’s healthy in the postseason. Need that. Luis Rise, excuse me, not Luis Rise, Ryan O’Harn, the power potential, the flexibility, uh, positionally, like he can do that. So, those are the two for me. I think a lot of Padres’s fans would agree. If you disagree, you can let me know. If you agree, you can let me know. But yeah, that was interesting that Jim Bound put that out today during the World Series, but he put out his contract predictions. And um some of these some of these contract predictions, I don’t think that that’s going to be totally accurate, but we’ll see. [Music]

Jim Bowden in The Athletic made some free agent contract predictions and some of them were questionable…

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