[Carter] The most inaccurate QBs through Week 8 (per Completion Percentage Over Expected)
1. Caleb Williams (-7.1%)
2. Trevor Lawrence (-6.8%)
3. Jaxson Dart (-5.5%)
4. Dillon Gabriel (-5%)
5. Michael Penix (-4.7%)
[Carter] The most inaccurate QBs through Week 8 (per Completion Percentage Over Expected)
1. Caleb Williams (-7.1%)
2. Trevor Lawrence (-6.8%)
3. Jaxson Dart (-5.5%)
4. Dillon Gabriel (-5%)
5. Michael Penix (-4.7%)
13 comments
The bye week was a nice break from the stat idiots
Wouldn’t completion percentage over expected be a stat of both inaccuracy and drop rate?
Oh man, first advanced stats the sub isn’t going to love.
14 sacks in the past 2 games. Trevor was fine with protection and a stable running game. He gets in trouble when he feels like he needs to play hero ball and the drops have gotta gave him overthinking some throws. If we get the supporting cast in gear, this all goes away.
I did some math. If we catch those 25 drops he’s at + 2.8%.
Jaguars have faced the 1st, 4th, 10th, 11th, and 13th ranked defenses
Jaguars’ adjusted strength of schedule so far is .587, 2nd hardest in the league behind the Titans
This stat also doesn’t account for drops
We could’ve drafted one of these other dudes and had similar production for a fraction of the cost.
I’m looking forward to being told all the ways the stats are wrong and the million excuses for Trevor as delusion Trevor defenders rock back and forth in The corner of their bedroom whispering these excuses out loud to themselves as they type furiously to defend their prince.
Hurts to acknowledge.
That’s not good! The Jaguars need to develop and practice quick plays! Trevor throws too many Hail Mary long passes that fail and waste a down.
CPOE gets obliterated when you have too many drops since accurate throws with a drop get washed out so you are left with a smaller sample size that is over-represented by inaccurate passes.
If the expected probability was 70 and the pass was completed, the CPOE is 100%-70% = 30%
If the expected probability was 70 and the pass was not completed, the CPOE is 0%-70%= -70%
So using that say you have 100 passes with a 30% incompletion percentage assuming the catch probability was the same at 70% (70 catches 30 incompletions) your CPOE would be 0. When you have 12% dropped passes now you have 88 total pass attempts counted, still with 30 incompletions but only 58 completions giving you a CPOE = -3.8.
Jags fans are going to cling to a mid quarterback forever I guess. At least Bortles was a fun meme.
I’m surprised the Trevor fan club didn’t rush in here and pop a twat.