REUNION UNLIKELY: The Miami Marlins Should NOT Sign Luis Arraez

REUNION UNLIKELY: The Miami Marlins Should NOT Sign Luis Arraez

The Marlins bring back Louisa Rise. I’m going to break it down on today’s Locked On Marlins. You are Locked On Marlins, your daily podcast on the Miami Marlins, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. Welcome into Locked On Marlins. I’m your host Jeremiah Guyger. I’m a diehard Marlins fan and I’ve podcasted about the team for the last four seasons. You can find me on Twitter, Jeremiah 2. And thank you for making Locked on Marlins your first listen of the day, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, which is your team every day. Make sure you’re subscribed to the YouTube channel or wherever you get your podcast. Today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase. And on today’s show, could Luis Rias return to the Marlin? That’s the question that I’m going to give my opinion on. Certainly far from an answer because the Marlins haven’t signed any free agents. The World Series is still going. So, it’s a lot of speculation, a lot of wait and see. We’re also going to talk about the the numbers behind the Marlins payroll. It has to increase. It’s not a a matter of if, it should be a matter of when, because if it doesn’t increase significantly, then there’s going to be some serious complaints that are justified. We’re also going to take a look at a former first round pick, should we be concerned with Noble Meyer, the Marlins first round draft choice from a couple of years ago. But first off, Luis Aras. So, I tweeted out the other day, I think this was yesterday, I, you know, the off season, there’s no Marlins games going on. I’m not tweeting out every hour on the hour or anything like that, but I saw a lot of Luis Araz back to Miami tweets, bring him back, this and that. And I said, look, I said, I’ll always love Luis Aas, but he is not the answer at first base. And that was yesterday. The tweet was fairly popular. It has over 80 likes. Seems like people agree with me. I think it’s it’s obvious why I don’t think Luis Aras is the answer at first base. Let me set the stage by giving you me my reasonings why I don’t think that. Number one, his defense isn’t good. Number two, he’s not a power hitter. And what have I talked about on this show? The Marlins need slug. They need a first baseman that can come in and drive in runs, can hit you 25, 30 home runs. That’s why I want Josh Naylor. I did an episode on Kazuma Okamoto, the the the first baseman, third baseman over in the NPB who’s going to be posted this off season with the Marlins potentially making a run at him, a power hitter. Essentially, that’s what it comes down to, power. I think the Marlins need a power hitter at that corner position. So that’s in a nutshell and we’re going to dive more into the numbers later on. But Luis Oras himself said okay with a smiley face in my mentions replying to that tweet. I follow Luis Aas. I’ve I’ve been a Luis Aras fan. I vehemently was against trading him after the the playoff season in 2023. I was very disappointed. I felt like he had a role on this team. And I’m a fan of the way he plays the game. He is a throwback player in an era where 97 98% of of baseball players when they’re in when they’re in the box facing a pitcher, they don’t have that same approach. They don’t have that same skill set. And so I have a deep appreciation for Luis and the way he plays the game. Now, does that mean that he is that that I’m sitting here clamoring and hoping for a Luis Ara’s return because I like the way he plays the game and because I think he has value? No. because I don’t necessarily think that should be the Marlins on the Marlins agenda is bringing in a contact first defensively limited player. If the Marlins signed Pete Alonzo and they didn’t have Xavier Edwards at second and their outfield consisted still consisted of Jacob Marcy, Kyle Sourers, you add Pete Alonzo into the fold and you have a giant payroll where you can afford to sign Luis Rayas. Again, you don’t have the m middle infield that you do now. I mean, maybe maybe that’s a question, but now we’re running hypotheticals here because I don’t I don’t want it to sound like I’ve changed my tune on Luis Aras and and what he meant to that Marlins team in 2023. And I’ve said this before, that 2023 playoff team was driven by the efforts of Luis Aras and Jorge Solair. That was the Marlins offense. Now, in 2024, they traded him to the Padres. He spent his first full season with the Padres in 25. And across 675 played appearances, he hit 292, slugged 392, an OBP of 327, and an OPS of 719. Now, the unfortunate reality is that his numbers have been declining year in and year out. 2023 since that season hit 354 at the Marlins. Last year, 314. This past season, 292 on base percentage. Went from 393 to 314 or 393 to 24 346 to 327. the OPS 862 with Miami, 738 in 24, 719. And the point of this isn’t to bore you with numbers. It’s to explain that bringing him back a contact hitter who is showing signs of slightly declining in terms of his one skill set. He didn’t hit 300. He didn’t win the batting title. That’s a little bit concerning. And also the fact of the matter is his defense is does not match up with what the Marlins are trying to do. The Marlins want to be a very sound defensively minded team. You see that with their outfield above average defensively. All three of the projected starters or at least my projected starters which would be Sters Marcy and Conine good defenders. Xavier Edwards, gold glove finalist at second base. Otto Lopez should have been a gold glove finalist at short. Graham Paulie at third base, defensive wizard. Now, you could say Conor Norby isn’t good at defense and yet they’re still trying to make him a third baseman. Yes, they are because there’s nowhere else for him to go. He’s not going to start in the outfield and he’s not going to start in place of Xavier Edwards at second. And I don’t even know if he’s played shortstop in his professional career. That’s not an option. He’s not a shortstop. Defensively behind the plate, that’s the area of concern. Catcher Augustine Ramirez, they still try to get his defense to a point where it’s passable, but at this point, I doubt it’s ever going to end up being average. I I see Augustine Ramirez as being eventually moved to either first base or designated hitter. So bringing in Aras to make your defense quote unquote worse wouldn’t really make much sense to me. Also, where is the power going to come from? Augustine has a power bat. Kyle Sters power bat. Griffin Conine. When he stays on the field, I think he has the ability to hit 30 home runs. He’s got to stay on the field for it, but it’s not enough. The Marlins need more slug. They need more power if they want to be competitive. And honestly, Arise doesn’t bring that to the table. So, if that was your one free agent signing, your marquee free agent signing and the Luis Arise contract, that probably is in the double digits, you know, per per year, 10 11 million at least. I saw something about 14 million, which I I think is way too much. And honestly, I have no idea what he’s going to get on the market because I mean, he’s a unique player, a very unique player. He’s somebody that doesn’t come around all too often. And while yes, I I think it’s a I think I think he’s a great addition to a lineup, I don’t think that’s the target that the Marlins should be after. So, nothing against L, nothing against Luis Az. I I loved him while he was in Miami. I thought he he he’s a phenomenal atbat to watch. I’m I root for him in San Diego. I just don’t think he’s the answer at first base. So, let me know in the in the comment section. Do you want to see Luis Aras return to Miami? I don’t see it happening. I don’t see this as a as a possibility. I think the Marlins have their eyes set on a true slugger. And my dream signing this free agency period will be Josh Naylor. Speaking of payroll increase is a must. Josh Naylor is going to cost money. And what do the Marlins have to do this off season? They have to spend money. Spend money correctly in the right places. But at the end of the day, Bruce Sherman’s got to open up his wallet and finally commit financially to the Marlins onfield product. I’m going to talk about more talk about that more right after this this ad. The NBA is back and there’s no better place to get in on the action than FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you miss the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel has live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. You can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. It keeps every game exciting, especially when your team’s making that late push. Right now, new Fan FanDuel’s giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanduel.com to sign up and play your game with FanDuel. It’s the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Remember, you sign up, never played FanDuel before, first $5 bet, if it wins, it’s going to get you $300 in bonus bets. Shout out to all the everyday listeners making Lock Marlins a part of your daily routine. The payroll’s got to increase. It’s got to. It’s It’s not a It’s not a question if it should or if this is the right time. No, no more excuses, no more hesitation, no more ambiguity when it comes to spending in free agency. And when that time is right, because the time is now. The time is right now. Look, the last couple of years, the Marlins have signed two free agents. Three if you count Eric Wagman. And I’ll count I’ll count him for for the sake of this this show. will count Eric Wagaman because at the end of the day he did have over 500 played appearances. But after a playoff birth, the only signing they had was Tim Anderson, a washed up Tim Anderson, who was signed very cheap, one-year 5 million deal after 2024, the disaster of that season. Now, of course, the expectations after 2024 compared to the expectations right now are very different and the feel around the team was very different. But you still only signed Cal Quantrol, a middling free agent who you signed right when you know the season was about to start. Pitchers and catchers had already reported. I had already started my my new gig at Locked On. Um, I mean, if you think about it, free agency, you have December, you have January. I don’t think I started recording until February. So, they waited quite a lot of time to sign their first free agent of of the off season. And it was again a very cheap deal to a pitcher coming off of a down season in Colorado hoping that he’d bounce back. And my point with recapping these two signings is that that idea that style of of spending in free agency of of approaching the free agency free agency period. That can’t happen again. I’ll give you a pass for the last two years. I’ll give you a pass for last year because nobody expected this team to to compete. And also, you had to let the young guys play. That was the the motto coming into the season. It was the youth movement. The Marlins were a young team. The the players were going to get every opportunity to succeed. So, there wasn’t really a need to bring in a ton of free agents. Tim Anderson after 2023, that being the only signing, I I still think you should have at least went for it to see if you can compete again. And hindsight’s 2020. Of course, this team started off what what was it? 6 and 24, 1 and 11, however, however way you want to slice it, it wasn’t good. And it quickly blew up. Tim Anderson was DFAD. He was terrible. The Marlins lost a 100 games. That being said, I don’t see how this team loses 100 games in 2026. And I if everything goes right for the Marlins, they should have a winning record. I’m going to go as far as to say that because you have a young core now. You don’t have a ton of salary tied up in in these burdening contracts that you can’t get rid of and you’re tied up for the next three to four years in a player that’s giving you mediocre production, let alone bad production. You have one guaranteed contract this season. That’s Sandy Alcantra. One. And this is his last year of team control before there’s a club option. So, that’s going to be interesting to see what the Marlins want to do there. I mean, you you think about a potential Sandy Alcantara trade. That could be the driving force. They’re never going to come out and say it, of course, but if the Marlins do trade Sandy this off season, you have to you have to wonder, do they have that club option in the back of their minds and they know they’re they’re not going to pick it up? Bruce isn’t going to fit the bill for a $21 million option. It’s possible, but everybody else apart from Sandy, they’re either in arbitration and projected really not to make that much. I think the projected arbitration contract for the Marlins, the largest one is probably going to be Edward Cabrera, who I think made three million last year. three and a half million. It wasn’t a ton. You have a lot of guys hitting ARB, but plenty of plenty of players are still in pre-arbitration. And that’s right what that’s right where the Marlins want want to be. They want to be there. They don’t want to be, you know, giving huge deals out to their to their arbitration eligible players. And then I mean I mean that would be a mess that that they don’t want these huge arbitration deals. And Edward Cabera, the projected deal from him from MLB Trade Rumors, 3.7 million for his second year in ARB. Manageable. Very manageable. So, there’s no excuse for this team to not make an effort in free agency. Has to be done. Josh Naylor is going to get a multi-year deal. It’s going to was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners. He stole a ton of bases, which I thought was just hilarious because if you’ve watched Josh Naylor play, he doesn’t look like he’d be the fleetest of foot, but he’s a power bat. He’s he he’s a really good hitter. I mean, former first round pick of the Marlins, ironically enough, before guess what? They traded him away. So, for Naylor, if you can get him for a reason, not a reasonable deal because that reasonable so subjective when it comes to to finances, right? I watched my team give out a multi-year deal to Avi Garcia, which probably is the worst free agent contract since I’ve been watching baseball. It blew up right from the start. It was awful. And they’re still going to pay Avi Garcia this season. But Josh Naylor 295 hitter, so he’s hitting close to 300. Hit 20 bombs. Stole 30 bases. ops over 800. I mean, he’s he’s gonna earn the his bag. He’s gonna earn that money. Now, can the Marlins jump in on the sweep stakes? Will they jump in on the sweep stakes? Will they be rumored to spend for a Josh Naylor? They’re not going to get Pete Alonzo. I can guarantee you that right now. And of course, nothing in life’s a guarantee except death and taxes. But I would be shocked if Pete Alonzo is remotely close to the Marlins in contract negotiations. I doubt he even talks to them. I doubt the Marlins even talk to him. So, will they talk to Josh Naylor? That’s a question. Bullpen, same thing. You You have to reinvest money into the bullpen. And I know there’s ways to do it with trades. There’s always a trade to be done. on Peter Bendix works the trade calls and and and the and the phone lines as much as anybody except this past trade deadline which he was awfully quiet. Not that I don’t think he was getting calls. I just think he said, “No, we’re going to stand Pat. Unless you give us what we’re ask our asking price, we’re not going to give them to you.” In regards to Sandy and Cabrera, but the off season before, Jesus Lazardo gone. Jake Burgerer, four years more of control, gone. So trades are always an option. But this isn’t about trades. This is about taking on money and increasing the payroll number to become respectable across Major League Baseball. Instead of being the laughingstock of of fans saying, “Well, the Marlins don’t spend money.” This could be the year where you say, “Well, they actually do and they have a plan in place and they’re not just spending silly and being stupid. They have a young core and now they’re supplementing this young core because believe it or not this Marlin’s window is open and if you stay healthy never a guarantee again but if you if you make if you hit the right buttons if you make the right transactions then you have a chance to set your franchise up for success not just for 2026 but for 2027 and 2028. The farm system it’s up and coming. Thomas White, Robbie Snelling, and you sign a couple of these guys, you could be in a really, really fun and exciting and competitive place. So, it has to happen. Now, will it? That’s a different story. I hope it does. I think it should. Heck, I I think it I think it will. I think the Marlins do commit financially and sign some bigname players. But I’m a Marlins fan. I’ve seen this story before. And I would be lying if I said 100% guys, I feel totally confident in the Marlins and their plan this free agency cycle because at the end of the day, I don’t know. We’ve never seen Peter Bendix and Bruce Sherman work together in free agency in any meaningful way. It’s just been been a couple of marginal signings. It’s going to be exciting to see. Coming up next, we’re going to talk about a former first round pick who I’m concerned with. Yeah, I’m pretty worried about about him. The Marlins have to draft well, too, if they want to continue being successful long term. And in 2023, I’m not so certain that they did. I’m going to talk about Noble Meyer right after this. The NBA season is back. The NFL season is back. And honestly, there’s nothing better than going to the stadium, surrounded by fans, cheering on your team. But sometimes getting tickets can be a hassle. You have login screens, prices shooting through the roof, just jumping at you at checkout. You’re like, where did that price come from? But with Game Time, you’re going to have the app that gives the advantage back to the fans. Best part about Game Time for me is the all-in pricing. 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Subscribe wherever you get your podcast if you’re listening via your favorite podcast platforms. Free and available wherever you get the show. Did the Marlins make the wrong decision drafting Noble Meyer? Is his development, is there a developmental problem in coaching him up? What’s going on with the former first round pick? So, Noble Meyer was drafted by the Marlins in 2023, 10th overall pick, and it’s safe to say at the time he was a super exciting prep pitcher out of Oregon with an electric arm, and it felt like the Marlins might have gotten a steal there. Now, you could have also said, “Look, this is a pitching factory. the Marlins. They were offensively starved then, they’re offensively starved now. We need a bat. And I wouldn’t have been opposed to that, but they go with the big prep, righty. And now fast forward a couple days later, you got to or a couple years later, couple days later, we still would have been in 2023. But a couple years later, especially after 2025, I think it’s time to hit the panic button. Noble’s coming off of a season in high A. And let me preface this by saying Thomas White was drafted in a in the comp round right after. So, the Marlins did get their elite pitcher, their elite pitching prospect, just wasn’t with the 10th overall pick. and and White has far and away surpassed Noble at this point in their development. And we’re probably going to see Thomas White in the major leagues at some point. Meyer went 1-7 with a 4.41 ERA for Hay Blo across 19 starts, 65 and a third innings. He walked 38 and he struck out 72. So 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. and then a 5.2 walks per nine. Not the most encouraging stuff from Meyer. And the the the hitter that was drafted right after him. Take a second, pause the show. Who was it? Well, that would be the Angels first baseman Nolan Shauel, who of course got rushed to the majors and has played a good a good number of Major League Baseball games, including this past season where he hit 264, drove in 53, and hit 12 bombs. Now, is he is he the best first baseman in the in the league? Is he an all-star? No. But he’s he’s now played two full years and is a positive war player with an OPS in each of his two full seasons. 706 742. It’s a pretty decent hitter. Drafted immediately after Meyer. You had Matt Shaw drafted at 13th. Kyle Teal drafted 14th to the Red Sox. Bryce Eldridge drafted 16th to the Giants. some really good names as you go down the list. Mariners, Colt Emerson down at 22. Uh Yankees 26, George Lombberg. So, it’s safe to say the Marlins whiffed. They whiffed. And I’m confident in saying that. Now, is it over for Noble Meer? No. Is it is is this a scenario in which he’s written off completely and never makes the major leagues? No. Pitching’s hard. Hitting’s hard. Baseball is a hard sport. I do have faith in the Marlins pitching development team and what they do down there across all levels of major of baseball to get their guys the best chance to make the major leagues and have success. But this is make or break time for Noble Meyer. It it just is. If in 2026 he has a down year, then there’s going to be real concern that he ever makes the majors because he’s going to be stuck at low A, double A, wherever he ends up and is still not having results and he’s still struggling with command. I mean, he’s he’s already getting passed by by multiple guys in the Marlin system. Thomas White, I talked about him, Robbie Snelling, Carson Milbrandt is a better prospect than Noble Meyer. And so, he’s going to slowly fade out of the immediate vision and plans of the Miami Marlins. And you never want to see that happen with a first round pick. But a team like the Marlins, they have to ace these picks. Now, it’s impossible to ace every draft. That’s never the case with any team. And when you do multiple years, then you’re going to have a really good core. Look at the Houston Astros and the way they drafted and the young core they had. But, I mean, they still missed who they had that left-hander. Um, was it Brady Aken drafted first or second overall? So, misses happen, but 23 looks like a miss at this point. Very concerned. If I had to rate it 1 through 10 on the Jeremiah concern meter, I’d say an eight and a half. Eight and a half right now for Mr. Meyer. PJ Morlando in 2024 drafted 16th overall. They wanted to save money to go sign Carter Johnson. Both of the both those guys haven’t looked good. So the way the Marlins have drafted in the last two years and now 25. We’re going to wait and see with Iva Arette. It is concerning. You don’t want to be in that scenario in which you’re just swinging you’re swinging and missing on every single draft pick in the first round. You got to get these elite players and that that’s just top to bottom. That’s on the organization to figure that out. Sometimes you make the wrong decision. Sometimes it’s a failure to develop. JJ Bladeet I think falls somewhere in between. And of course, that was a different front office, a different era, if you will, of Marlins baseball, but Noble Meyer, I wanted to come on the show today and talk about him because I don’t really see his name anymore. He’s just kind of there. Oh yeah, Noble Meer, first round pick. Yeah, he’s got to turn it around. No, I think he has to turn it around now or he’s going to be labeled a complete bust. And and the same same thing for PJ Morlando. I mean, nice guy. I interviewed him, but this this is a business. Baseball is a business. And it’s going to be a big big season for Orlando, the first round pick in 2024 to perform. Meyer and Orlando. Two guys that you should be watching and tracking their development because it would be huge for the organization if they took steps forward and figured it out. They’re still in the organization for a reason. Orlando’s down here in the Arizona Fall League. The organization is giving him opportunities to succeed. So hopefully it happens. Going to wrap it up here, guys. That’s going to do it for today’s edition of Locked On Marlins. I appreciate you guys tuning in and until next time, stay safe, stay locked on, and let’s go fish.

The Marlins should not try to sign Luis Arraez in free agency. Payroll needs to increase for 2026 with only one guaranteed contract on the books in Sandy Alcantara. Former 1st round pick Noble Meyer is entering a make or break season.

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