Is Framber Valdez The Perfect Free Agent Target For The D-backs? | Snakes Territory

Is Framber Valdez The Perfect Free Agent Target For The D-backs? | Snakes Territory

[Music] Hello and welcome to another episode of Snakes Territory. I’m Jesse Freriedman alongside Jack Summers. Of course, this show is presented by Fox One. Jack, how are you doing on this lovely Tuesday evening as we record this episode? Well, I had an afternoon nap to get over, you know, staying up all night watching Dodgers and Blue Jays last night. The game, uh, game four is just starting as we record. Um, so I’ll go back and catch up and and, uh, rewatch that from the beginning once we’re done recording today. Absolutely wild game three between the Dodgers and the Blue Jays. I have to admit, I eventually just turned it off and went to sleep because I think I tapped out around the 16th inning. That’s as far as I made it. Uh, but yes, the World Series continues to go on and in the meantime, we continue to think about this Arizona Diamondbacks off season and the best moves that this team might want to make over the course of the winter. And Jack, uh, Monday was like Christmas morning, uh, for all of us, uh, people in the baseball world because Jim Bowden released his article that he does every year where he ranked the top 50 free agents available and he also attached each of these 50 free agents to some teams that he identified as the best fit for each of those players. We’re going to talk about a variety of players over the course of this episode. But mostly we’re going to be kind of bargain hunting based on the numbers that Jim Bowden gave. But to start out, Jack, we’re going to not bargain hunt at all and talk about Valdez, uh, the left-handed pitcher, longtime member of the Houston Astros. We talked about his name a while back on this show as a potential option for the Dbacks. Do I think this is likely, Jack? Of course, I do not. I would be frankly quite shocked if the Dbacks did this. But we’ve also been a little surprised in recent years at how much Ken Kendrick has been willing to spend. And Framber Valdez is kind of the type of pitcher that the Dbacks have gravitated toward in the past. He’s a veteran. He has a long track record of pretty consistent results. Um he’s a lefty in his early 30s. The track record there for the Dbacks is not great. Um maybe that’s a reason not to sign him, but uh he is the type of pitcher that the Diamondbacks need going into 2026. Well, if they get the kind of pitcher that he’s been in the past, then yes, that’s what they need. But I think you hit the nail on the head. Um you know, he’s got over a thousand innings, uh almost all of that has come in the last five, six years. Um and you know, he’ll be 32 years old. Um, his velocity is still up, but you know, he was a little less dominant. Strikeout rates have not been what they were earlier. His walk rate was up. I mean, he’s still he’s a really good pitcher. 366 ERA, 375X RA, 337 FIP. He’s been a basically a four-war pitcher every year for the last four years. You know, it’s like lock him in. There you go. Four war. Uh, but he’s also going to require a long contract. Um, I think Mr. Bowden projected what? Six, 190. Six and 190. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, you know, that’s like, okay, what’s going to happen to him in year one, two, or three? It’s very hard for me to think that that the Dbacks would or should go into that deep end of the pool again on a left-handed 30-some year old starter. Track record or no. We’ve heard Mike Hazen talk recently about how this is an area of the market that the Dbacks still need to engage in moving forward despite what happened with Madison Bumgner, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, most recently Corbin Burns who pitched pretty well but then of course went down with Tommy John surgery. The Dbacks have been clear, Jack, that this is still an area of the market that they want to engage in moving forward. And that’s why I think it’s still worth having a discussion about a Framber Valdez when this team clearly needs rotation help going into next year. And if they’re really serious about trying to put a contender together, like he’s the type of pitcher, you’d probably need to do that. But I also agree with you. Uh is is he the guy that you want to make this bet on? I think there are valid there are valid reasons to be concerned about what this is going to look like in in year three, year four, year five. Uh so I would be pretty shocked if the Dbacks went down that road. Uh but there are worse decisions they could make this offseason, Jack. I mean Valdez at the top of this rotation. Uh if you get Corbin Burns back at some point next year, if he looks anything like himself, of course, Ryan Nelson you expect to be back in a prominent role. Maybe you could talk yourself into this being a decent rotation if the Dbacks went down that road. Yeah, I think for me what it I I’m fully cognizant of what Mike has said in regards to that particular market of high-end free agents, but I also think that in order to believe that the Dbacks would be players at at that level again, then you have to believe that Ken Kendrick and Derek Hall were completely sandbagging and playing possum when they told us twice on air on the record that they’re cutting payroll. Yeah. You know, I mean 6 and 190 would basically unless it was like a super low dollar figure in year one and then it escalated from there. I mean that theoretically would take up just about all the money that you have to spend this off season. Exactly. I mean I you know we’ve crunched the numbers here. um when you add up everything that they’re actually committed to to fill out a full roster, guarantee contracts, arbitration estimates, and then filling in at the very least league minimum guys allowing for some injury replacements and a few other things that they have to budget for. um they really only have somewhere between 27 and $37 million to spend. If they’re cutting payroll just to say 180 180 something um you know 175 180 if they’re going below that number then they only got about $25 million to spend. Um so you know I mean you’re going to put all of it into one starter and then still not have a bullpen and have multiple other holes in your lineup. I just don’t see how they can piece it together that way. My my gut tells me that the most sensible thing for them to do is to use trade assets to get as good a starting pitcher as they can. And then from there, you know, but somebody that’s still under control, maybe arbitration eligible, you know, not in his last year of arbitration at $20 million. Hello, Tariq. Um, you know, you’re killing the Derek Scubble dream, Jack, already. Well, I mean, you can get him, but you got to trade Catel Marte or you got to empty the farm for one year of a guy that you can’t sign for next year. And that you still have to pay close to $20 million. Yeah. But I mean, if they can get, you know, if they can use their trade assets to go get a guy, a good starting pitcher with two or three years left of control at arbitration wages, now you’re not breaking the bank. And then, and we’re going to, you’ll see why I’m thinking this way. Then they can turn around and start filling chunks here and chunks there and maybe, you know, find some good value picks um, you know, free from the free agent list. So, I think you use your trade capital, go get a the best starting pitcher you can get with trade capital, and then use your somewhat meager free agent dollars to then fill the rest of the holes. The only way I could see Framber Valdez possibly happening is if somehow there’s a situation similar to to Corbin Burns last year. I mean, if you told either of us at the beginning of last off season that the Dbacks were going to come away with Corbin Burns, like I I would have thought you were crazy. I mean, that wasn’t even at all on my radar. But what happened is Corbin Burns really wanted to go to Arizona. He was willing to take uh a little bit less money in order to make that happen. I highly doubt that’s the case for Fomber Valdez, but yeah, it would have to be some kind of special circumstance. Uh, barring that, yeah, the Dbacks have talked about cutting payroll. If you’re doing that, you’re probably not bringing in Frober Valdez. Uh, so moving on from Valdez, Jack, uh, coming back down to earth perhaps just a little bit or maybe not coming back down to earth at all as we move as we move down Jim Bowden’s list. The highest ranked player that he had the Diamondbacks listed as a fit for was first baseman/ird baseman Murataka Murakami out of Japan. A 25year-old uh yeah corner corner infielder big time power here Jack last year 24 home runs in 69 games playing out in NPB. Uh there are some questions here though in terms of his contact ability. He ran about a 27% strikeout rate last year over in Japan, which is kind of alarmingly high relative to the rest of that league. And oh, by the way, Jim Bowden is projecting him to get six years and $160 million. I think Framber Valdez is kind of crazy, Jack. This might be even crazier. I just cannot imagine the Diamondbacks giving that kind of money to a really unproven player uh who plays, you know, is probably going to wind up playing first base. Yeah. And I don’t know if he’s even adequate defensively at first base. I mean, there seems to be some question about his defense even at first. So, you know, I mean, look, he’s got big-time power. I think he had a 58 homer season um you know, a few years ago. Uh, I think he 56 back in 2022. Yeah, pretty crazy. I mean, his production’s waned a little bit since then and he’s had some injury issues. Um, he’s a little chunky. Um, I mean, he’s kind of fat in the face and fat in the neck. Um, you know, his body is more of a chunky body style. Um, I don’t know how well he’s going to hold up physically, defensively, and whether or not that strikeout rate is going to translate into, you know, over 30% in the majors. Um, we asked our good friend, uh, Voros McCracken about his thoughts and what he said was the strikeout rate is concerning, but not as concerning as it would be, say, if you know a guy was carrying that kind of strikeout rate like in double A. Yeah. Yeah, Japan is is much better of course than is better than AAA, less than MLB. Um, so, you know, 27% doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to be much over that in Major League Baseball, but he’s unlikely to be much lower than it either. Um, so, you know, I you got to, you know, knock off 40% of his home runs and figure the strikeout rate goes up and feel happy if he hits 250. I’m not spending that kind of money at first base for that guy. Well, interestingly enough, the next name that Jim Bowden has connected to the Dbacks is at number 17. It’s a familiar name. Josh Naylor, he mentions the Diamondbacks as one of five potential fits there. A projected contract of four years and 90 million. Jack, I know Josh Naylor was good for the Dbacks. He was great for the Mariners. I know Mariners fans are already talking about uh bringing Naylor back as if that’s like a done deal and absolutely has to happen. Uh but I’m pretty skeptical for kind of the same reason here, Jack, that the Dbacks spend that money on Josh Naylor, a player who’s not real athletic despite what the stolen base numbers would tell you. Uh I have a hard time imagining the Dbacks spend that kind of money to to bring Josh Naylor back. Yeah. And I mean the other thing too is look, as good a hitter as Josh Naylor is, and you know, he’s a good guy and all of that, um, his defense does not profile like what the deep backs are after, right? You know, they’re not looking for that kind of defensive player. Um, they’re looking to up upgrade the defense if at all possible. So, uh, you know, I I don’t Look, the corner corner infield defense for the Dbacks was very weak last year, and Josh Naylor was a big part of that. So, I I don’t think that they want to put that kind of money into him when when they’re trying to re-emphasize defense. At number 18, Jim Bowden has another first baseman, and he lists the Diamondbacks as a potential fit. Number 18 is Kazuma Okamoto. Another guy coming over from Japan. Uh he he will reportedly be posted this off seasonason by his team out in Japan. Uh projected contract here four years 90 million. Again, Jack, exact same numbers as Josh Naylor. Uh Okamoto different type of player than than Murakami. The the power is not quite as monstrous. Uh his uh his high season high for home runs is 41. He did that back in 2023. He’s a little bit older at 29 years old. Murakami is 25. Maybe a steadier profile here, Jack. A player that feels like a safer bet to translate over to the majors, but the ceiling is also probably not as high. And again, are the Dbacks going to spend that kind of money on a first baseman? I really don’t think so. Yeah, I mean, he he is a safer bet um higher floor as far as translating into the majors. Um, I mean, you know, he had one, two, three, four, five straight 30 homer seasons and 41 and 27. Last year, he played half a season, had 15. He also hit 327 with over a thousand OPS. Uh, you know, his walk to strikeout ratio is about.5 to1. Um, you know, he’s not a big, you know, he strikes out, but not crazy. Uh, but for sure he’s a better defender. I mean, you know, he’s played a lot of third base, but a lot of first base, too. um he can, you know, scoot across the diamond if he has to, but he’s definitely a better defensive first baseman. And so that’s something that, you know, the Dbacks might consider there is the fact that the guy can play decent defense. And four years 90 is easier to swallow than 6 160, you know, as far as time and and commitment. Um if they could get that backloaded, you know, they still got to cough up the posting fee. Um, so it Okamoto is probably a little bit more attractive to me as a fit than Murakami would be. Well, we’ve talked about a few possibilities so far. We’ve got a whole lot more to get to on Jim Bowden’s list. We’ll do some bargain shopping. We’ll talk about some players that we are confident are actually in the Diamondbacks price range, unlike some of these guys we’ve touched on so far. So, don’t go away. We’ll be right back uh here on Snakes Territory. The 2025 baseball season is down to what matters most, lifting the trophy. With DraftKings Sportsbook, you’re right there for every pitch, every moment. New customers, this one is for you. Bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get paid out $300 in bonus bets instantly. This is what October Baseball is all about. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code foul. That’s code foul to turn five bucks into 300 in bonus bets if your bet wins. In partnership with DraftKings, the crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1800 gambler. In New York, call 8778Y or text open Y467-369. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789777 or visit ccpg.org. Please play responsibly. On behalf of Bootill Casino and Resort in Kansas, passrough of per wager tax may apply in Illinois. 21 and over. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. Restrictions apply. Bet must win to receive bonus bets which expire in 7 days. Minimum odds required. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkg.co/audio. Limited time offer. We are back here on Snakes territory presented by Fox1. Jack. The next name uh on the list is another familiar one. Auheno Suarez is at number 19. Uh we really were not planning to discuss Gino. I I I have a hard time imagining the Debbacks bringing Gino back, but I do find myself fascinated at Jim Bowden’s contract projection here, Jack. Three years, $72 million. Does that pass the smell test for you? I I’m thinking it’s going to be quite a bit lower than that with the second half that Gino just had. Yeah, I mean, in in the case of a lot of this list, it seems high to me in that top 20 25 guys, the top three. um you know, getting that third year, getting $24 million a year. I I know he hit a boatload of home runs, but you know, teams are aware of of the swing and miss issues and, you know, the slow uh last two months of the season. Um Gino is all or nothing. I mean, like we love the guy, you know, for who he is as a person and when he has a big game and a big moment like he did in the playoffs, it’s joyous. I mean, you couldn’t be happier than you feel for any guy any other guy, but um you know, and I hate that there’s such a big butt here. I mean, the defense has just really gotten quite atrocious. Um and the again, the Dbacks are not going to go back down that road of all or nothing at the plate and bad defense. They’re just not going to do it. And certainly not for 372. So, no, I think after seeing what we saw at the trade deadline where clearly the market for Gino was not anything like what some people thought it would be, it’s hard for me to imagine that his market is suddenly going to drive up to 3 years and 72 million in the offseason. I mean, if his price was what the Mariners paid at the trade deadline, I don’t think that’s a player that’s about to get over $20 million a year for for three more seasons. So certainly he’s going to be half that. Yeah, I mean honestly he’ll get like 236 or something like that. Yeah, I I very much agree with you. That seems enormously high to me. Uh all right, back to uh back to reality players that Dbacks actually could sign. Uh Mel Kelly, a name that we have certainly discussed on this show that people around the Diamondbacks organization certainly would love to have back on this team next year. Two years 30 million Jack. That’s what Jim Bowden has. pretty similar numbers to what you and I discussed here recently. Uh I could I could see something like that happening. I think it could make sense for both sides. Yeah. If if you remember when we spoke last time, my big contention was, you know, 37 year olds aren’t getting 37 year old starters that aren’t elite Hall of Fame caliber pitchers weren’t getting multi-year deals at at that age. They just weren’t. Um and we went back over five years of history and there was like nobody there. And I had to actually go to look at age 35 and 36 players to find a comparable for somebody at least got a two or threeear deal um you know to Merryill. Um so uh you know if we hearken back to that conversation I kind of landed on really like 224 and that might be a little bit low but 230 seems to be the upper end. So I would say that Bowden’s number while realistic at 230 to me that’s the upper end of what Melo could or should get. Yeah. Yeah. I think that’s I think that’s totally fair. Um yeah, I think uh the Debbacks would love to have Mel Kelly back and it seems pretty clear that Merryill is is going to be interested. We’ll see if the pieces fit together there. Now, Jack, we’re going to kind of transition into into bargain shopping mode. We’re going to sort of zoom toward the bottom of this list. I know you have a number of names that you highlighted here. one of them that was I literally went from the bottom of the list and worked my way up and there Yeah, I mean there are some players here that totally could make sense for the Diamondbacks. I think the most interesting one to me, Jack, was Brandon Woodruff, a pitcher who had shoulder surgery, missed all of the 2024 season, came back and pitched a little bit in 2025, was really good for the Brewers when he was healthy. Unfortunately, had a lat injury that knocked him out toward the end of the season. He didn’t pitch in the playoffs at all. But Brandon Woodruff, I mean, when healthy, Jack, his ceiling is really high. I mean, he could be the best pitcher on the Diamondbacks. Probably would be the best pitcher on the Diamondbacks if he was healthy. And as much as you’ve got some innings to fill going into 2026, there’s also something to be said for for shooting high in terms of how how high a quality of innings you could get. Brandon Woodruff, I don’t know if the Dbacks could do any better than that. Yeah. I mean, if if the number that Bowden is putting out there is accurate, which is a big if, of course, you know, if that’s if that’s a number that can get him 222, I believe it was $11 million a year. Yeah. I roll the dice on him, you know, the lat strain. I mean, that’s a similar injury to what Rodriguez had in 2024. Um, and you know, it’s not great that he had a lat injury coming off uh, you know, surgery, but I mean, he made 12 starts through 65 innings and he had a 32 erra, 218x, and 317 fib. Those are elite numbers. Yeah. Right. You know, in in less than half a season, he put up uh, you know, two war. Um, so I mean that’s a four war pitcher that you know you’re going to have a hard time finding a guy like that for that kind of money. Um, and yes, there’s an injury risk there, but there’s going to be an injury risk with all these guys. I’d rather roll the dice on somebody like Woodruff than I would on say similarly priced Jack Flity. Um, you know, Jack Flity’s given more innings the last three years certainly. um you know, but he’s put up like a 39 erra and you know uh xra and fip over four um and uh you know so maybe he’s more of a sure thing to give you innings perhaps. But if if all things being equal financially where Bowden projects Jack Flity and Woodruff to uh you know have the same salary, well you guys know how I bet. I like the long shots. I want something that’s going to pay off, you know. So, I’d rather try I’d roll the dice on Woodruff before I took the quote unquote more sure thing in Flarity. Do you think these contract predictions are are accurate? I mean, I know it’s it’s easy to to, you know, throw throw tomatoes at Jim Bowden as he’s trying to make all these predictions. It’s really hard to go through and make contract predictions for all these guys at this point in the off season. I find myself though, Jack, like Jack Flity, I don’t think there’s any way he gets two and 22. I think it’s going to be higher than that. I mean, Jack Flity pitched playoff like meaningful games for the Dodgers last season. He had a 3.85 fit. He’s still posted. I I know there’s there’s some some injury uh some injury history with him as well, but he made 31 starts this year, 161 innings, and you know, he had 188 strikeouts in 161 innings. Teams pay for swing and miss. I don’t I think it’s going to be double that. I mean, I I I wouldn’t be shocked if Jack Flity got 40 50 million, something in that range. Yeah, that’s possible. I mean, you know, I look at 161 innings, 464 erra, 403x, 385 fib, and I’m thinking, well, that’s actually probably a little bit better than Zack Allen. Yeah. Yeah. Right. I mean, and and Jack Flity was really good last year. I I know it was, you know, it was 28 starts, 162 innings. Like, he hasn’t been a guy to give you 200 innings on a year- in year out basis, but he was really effective. I mean, he was one of the most highly soughtafter starters at last year’s trade deadline and finished the year with a 3170 RA. Like, I I I think he’s going to get a lot more money than that. And I kind of think Brandon Woodruff is going to get more than two and 22. Also, I mean, if Matthew Boyd got 2 and 29 from the Chicago Cubs entering this season, kind of a similar situation with all sorts of injury risk. I mean, Brandon Woodruff has the better track record than than Matthew Boyd. I I I would think I’m I’d probably take the over on on $30 million for Woodruff. Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, for sure. And and again, I you know, he shouldn’t be we’re not picking on Jim Bowden. I mean, he’s the first one out there with his numbers. Um I wouldn’t want to be the first one to make these to make these predictions myself. Yeah. I mean, MLB Trade Rumors will be coming out with their their numbers list and predictions for all of the top 50 or 100 guys, you know, maybe somebody else like Ken Rosenthal, I don’t know if he does it as well. Um, you know, and of course, roster resource over at Fangraphs, they’re they’ll have, you know, data in there. Maybe they’ll do their um crowdsourcing estimates or whatever. Um, so you know there there’s going to be other other estimates that are coming out and it’s always good to compare all of them and you know see the reasoning and rationale and methodology between all of them and then kind of see well which one feels like it’s closer to to reality. Another name that I know stood out to you here, Jack Nick Martinez is actually ranked higher on Jim Bowden’s list than either Jack Flity or Brandon Woodruff. Uh he has Martinez up at number 39. Projected a one-year 11 million deal which seems a little bit maybe a little bit light to me once again. Uh but he’s also in his little blurb that he wrote about Martinez, he’s talking about Martinez probably moving to a long reliever spot starter type role. And certainly if the team signed Nick Martinez to do that, then yeah, he’s not making this year he made $21 million. He accepted the qualifying offer. Certainly, no team would give him that to be a long reliever, spot starter type guy. Yeah. I mean, I obviously if the Dbacks were able to get him for that, they would use him in a rotation and they would only bump him to long relief spot starter if he didn’t perform well, right? you know, if he got crowded out because there was, you know, Christian men has been lights out and, you know, here comes Corbin Burns, you know, hot and coming in hot off the IIL, then and everyone else is healthy and doing good, then sure, you could see something like that happening. But, um, you know, one year 11 for this guy, I mean, 166 innings, 445 RA, but 399 XRA, 433 FIB. I mean, that’s better than most of the rotation not named um Ryan Nelson last year. Yeah. Yeah, that’s true. Uh another name here, Jack, uh Jose Canana, who of course was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers this past season. He did the thing again where he’s he’s just cons consistently somehow just continues to be good. He’s 36 years old. This year he went 11 and seven with a 386 erra in 131 and twothirds innings for the Milwaukee Brewers. He signed for one year and4 million this past season. Jim Bowden has him listed here at one year and $5 million for next year. I don’t know Jack that I mean that’s pretty compelling. Like Jose Canana I know it’s not flashy. There’s certainly risk. You’re not expecting him to make all 32, 33 starts, but I mean, he just kind of goes out there year after year and continues to be pretty good. If you can get anything anything quality in the rotation for a year and $5 million, I mean, it’s hard to do better than that. Uh, given the starting pitching market year in and year out. Yeah. I mean, you know, 396 ERA, but a 518 XRA, 481 FIP. Uh, the year before 375 RA, 452 XRA, 456 FIP. Um, you know, so he’s like doing deathdeying things. Um, his strikeout rate cratered to 6.08 per nine and his walk rate went up to 3.42. I mean, I don’t know how he managed it. I really don’t. Um, you know, the last two years combined 480 XR 467 fib, you know, I mean, yeah, at $4 million. I mean, if they get him for $4 or5 million, sure, why not, you know, and see if he he can, you know, he can throw his slop up there again. I mean, he’s, you know, his fast ball’s averaging 90 miles an hour. Uh, you know, it’s change up curveball, whatever. So, like, you know, he’s going to have to spin the ball and thumb it up there and junk ball his way into, you know, five five innings and, you know, two or three runs allowed. Sure, if he can do that on, you know, twothirds of his starts, then why not? But that’s that’s kind of where I’m talking about, you know, that’s not your number one option. But if you trade for a good starting pitcher, Yeah. And then you’ve got that guy as your fifth starter and if he falters then you bring in Christian Mena or you know if you give him half a season you’re not locked into a big contract if it doesn’t work out you just you know aa vista baby you know um and you see if you can get lucky with the guy at $45 million that’s kind of what I’m talking about at the beginning of the show trade for a guy that’s you know somebody you’re really counting on, right? And then go bargain basement for your fifth starter. I think it makes a lot of sense. Uh, one thing that concerns me with Canana is that he pitched for the Brewers this past year and the Mets the two years before that. Like those are teams that have really good pitching reputations. Uh, teams that just always seem to have guys performing over and above what their stuff would tell you they should be capable of. the Debbacks do not exactly have that reputation around the league right now. No, no secret there. So, it’s a little bit hard to believe that someone like Canana would come in to the Debbox organization and flourish in the same way. Uh but yeah, I mean it’s $4 or5 million, you know, as you said that it’s kind of a kind of a lowrisk medium reward sort of situation where it it could pay off for the Dbacks. you get another starter you feel better about and Jose Canana is your number five guy, you you could do you could do a whole lot worse than that. Uh we have plenty of other guys to get to, including uh one Paul Goldmid who we’ve talked about before. Uh but Jim Bowden made a a prediction at what Goldie uh would receive in free agency. We’ll talk about him, some other guys on the other side of this break here on Snakes Territory. The old card experience was a slow burn long grind, right? Find the box, find the pack you want, open the pack. Most of the cards, nah, right? You got one that’s worth something now. Send it in for grading. I mean, the list goes on and on. You want to sell it, now you got to put it up, then you got to ship it out. Yeah. There’s one solution for that, and it’s called Arena Club. And it’s just on a click of a dime. You get on your computer, you type in, get the Arena Club app, go on there, type in, put some money in, and type in exactly what kind of card you want, and voila. It’s a great experience. And I think that’s what people miss nowadays, the experience, the excitement of getting a new card. You never know what you’re going to get. An autograph card, anything you could think of. Really cool stuff. You can get 20% off your first slab pack or card purchase at arena.com/fal. See what gets Todd Father so excited when he gets that digital slab pack. It’s like butter, baby. Butter. Well, here we are back on Snakes’s territory presented by Fox One. Uh I don’t know, Jack, we want to just jump jump right to goalie. Um well, I mean, we got a few more pitchers to talk about actually. All right. I did want to talk about Adrien Hower real quick and just get your thoughts on him. Sure. Um, so you know, I mean, he threw 125 innings last year. He was lights out for the White Socks, at least in terms of erra. Um, and then he got traded and he went over to Tampa Bay and he struggled with his ERA. And in both cases, like his XRA was the same for both teams. 404 for the White Socks, 408 for the Rays, but his RA was 21 for the White Socks, 479 for the Rays. So for the year he was 331 erra 406 xra 381 um fip mid90s fastball you know and he can get he can get it up over 90. He he was throwing 95 miles an hour last year. It seems weird he didn’t strike out more guys than than you know he didn’t strike out as many guys as you would think he would. Um he had good defense behind him um in Tampa. But, you know, I think that this is another guy that uh potentially is in that same category. He’s 32, going to be 33 next year. So, I mean, Bowden had him getting $4 million also, same as Canana. So, I I just wanted to add that name. You know, I wasn’t just saying, oh, Jose Cano or Bust. I’m just talking about the types of guys that might be out there. And again, $4 million for Hower might be too low, but you know, if they could get him for $4 million and you roll the dice on that guy as your fifth starter, you could be doing a lot worse. He is a it’s a really interesting profile. Yeah. I mean, his his sinker average 94.4. That’s a pitch he really leans on. His four seamer average 95.2. He doesn’t really have, just looking at his numbers from the past couple of years, he doesn’t have a great slider, and that’s, you know, certainly going to be an important pitch for him against righties. Whiff rate is in the low 20s. Uh, opponent batting average is actually pretty high for a slider. So, I guess that kind of helps us understand like how this guy is throwing pretty hard, but not really striking anyone out. Um, or at least not striking out as as many as you’d expect. His change up numbers are pretty good. He had a 35.1% whiff rate there. Uh so kind of a kind of a strange profile, but yeah, I’m I’m with you. I mean, if that guy’s your number five starter, like I mean, last year he finished with a 331 erra in 21 starts. I mean, uh that that you could you could roll with that. Uh given what uh what kind of starting pitching the Dbacks have had the past few years. Yeah. Well, I mean, I wouldn’t count on a three 3-1 RA, you know. I would hope to repeat something like four, right? You know, I mean, XR, FIP, and XFIP are all in the four range, right? I mean, that’s kind of what you hope for there. Yeah. Yeah, I think that’s totally fair. Uh should we transition to some uh some relievers here, Jack? I know you had uh Kyle Finnegan on the list. Finnegan, Jim Bowden is is projecting it a fairly modest contract, one year, 6.25 25 million. I again think it’s going to be more than that uh given the the season that he just had. He’s never been a truly dominant closer, but he just kind of posts year after year uh continues to to be viable in that role and there’s not that many pitchers that that can do that year in and year out. Yeah. I mean, three years total, last three years, 365 RA, 406 XRA, 403 FIP, 90 saves. Um, you know, he was very good in the regular season for Detroit once he went over there. I think he struggled a bit in the postseason. Um, so, you know, going to be 34 years old. Um, you know, maybe that’s Paul Seawald all over again, you know, at that age and $6 million. But, uh, you know, if they’re not going to spend big money on the bullpen, then these are the, you know, the next tier of guys that you’re looking at. Yeah. Uh, speaking of which, um, you just I don’t know if we want to backtrack a little bit. He had Devin Williams at one year 10 million. And you all know how we feel about Devin Williams at one one year 10 million. It’s like, sign me up. Yeah. Yeah. At that point, like, you can’t wait until free agency begins. You just have to find a way to uh break the rules and just sign that contract right now. I I don’t think there’s any way Devin Williams goes for one year and 10 million. Maybe one year and like 20. Like I could see a team just being like, “All right, we know you just had a down season. We’re not going to give you a long-term deal. We want to see if you can prove it, but we’re willing to pay you a lot of money because we think you’re going to be pretty darn good this next year.” So, I could see like a short-term deal, really high dollar value, and then let Devin Williams go back out and and get his money next off seasonason. Maybe it’s a year in an option or something like that. But one year, 10 million. I mean, there there’s just no way, Jack. I mean, his his stuff is still too good. His strikeout rate was still way too high. Uh uh yeah, we I mean, we were talking about three years on our show and I think, you know, 30 40 million, something like that. I think you’d feel pretty good about getting Devin Williams in that range. Uh no, no way it happens for one year and 10. Yeah. By the way, you know, I was just kind of scrolling back up to the top of the list. I we forgot to kind of mention one guy, Zack Gallon. Yeah, Bowden has five years, 135 million with a long list of teams that would be interested. So that’s considerably more than the 480 that we talked about before. I think it’s I think it’s fair to to to take the over on four years and 80 million. just given what teams are willing to pay for starting pitching. I feel like I’m I’m just sort of blown away every winter like, oh my gosh, that pitcher got that contract. I think that’s probably going to happen with Zack Gallon to an extent. I don’t know about five and 135 though, Jack. Um, that feels that feels like a bit of a gamble given the the direction that gallon has been headed the past year, year and a half. I could see it being over 100 though. Like that wouldn’t surprise me at all. I would maybe settle more in the you know five years 110 maybe something something in that range. 135 see I mean you’re like you really need that guy to be close to an ace caliber pitcher if you’re giving him $27 million a year. Yeah. Exactly. I mean that’s a lot of confidence. But if there there’s always teams that are out there looking for, you know, what they perceive to be frontline starting pitching and it’s, you know, I can see where Bowden’s coming from. It’s like he’s because he’s got such a long list of teams, somebody’s going to cough it up, right? Uh so what I wanted to say uh real quickly though is the reason I went back up the list and got distracted is because the other reliever that I mentioned um that I wanted to mention was Drew Pomeran’s uh who’s uh Bowden’s projecting at one year 5 million. Um, you know, he’s 37 years old and missed three seasons, but then last year all of a sudden he comes back and in 50 innings he’s got a, you know, two 217 RA and a 353 XRA and a 336 uh fib. You know, I mean, he was pretty darn good left-hander um last year. So, you know, that’s a guy that maybe the Dbacks would be interested in if they could get him for that number or a little bit lower. Um, and the reason I’m dumpster diving on these uh relievers is because Bowden’s projecting four years 88 million for Edwin Diaz and four years 80 million for Robert Suarez. So, you know, yeah, if you want to play at the top end of the reliever market, um, you know, again, if you could get Devin Williams for one year, 10 million, he’s projecting, sign me up. Boom, done. End of story. End of podcast. Uh, but I don’t I don’t think that’s going to happen. So that’s why we’re I’m dumpster diving over here. Drew Pomeran is interesting. I mean, he’s entering his age 37 season. He had a 217 ERA this past year. I don’t really think you’d you’d expect that moving forward. I mean, it’s a 354 expected ERA. Um, you know, two 217 RA as you said, but I think a 336 fip. So, I I think he’s a good I think he was a good reliever, but his velocity was 2 miles an hour down from where it was back in 2020. Uh, which is or I guess they have Okay, so 2021 he was at 93.9. 2020 he was at 94.6. This this was his first year pitching in the majors in four years where he was actually where he was actually healthy. So, it’s a unique situation. I guess maybe I shouldn’t be comparing his velocity now to four years ago. I mean, that was forever ago at this point. But, you know, his overall whiff rate was was basically average. He he wasn’t missing a ton of bats. I I think he’s a solid lefty, but I don’t think you’re expecting Drew Pomerance to come in and be, you know, elite for you. But to your point, I mean, one year, $5 million, like you you would take, you know, a low three, low mid3 erra from a left-handed reliever for that. Yeah. Or they can just go and sign Jay and Beaks for $3 million. Yeah. You know, I mean, we talked about that, too. Just go bring Beaks back, Devil, you know, and all that. Yeah. Yeah, that’s totally fair. Uh well, I guess those are all of our pitchers, Jack. That brings us to the uh the position player side of things where of course we have to talk about Paul Goldmid, Jim Bowden. This was interesting. his list of best team fits. It’s only the Diamondbacks. He didn’t put any He did not put any other team on that list. It was just the Diamondbacks and his contract prediction was one year and $10 million. We already heard a report from Gambo Jack that this is something the Dbacks would would consider. Uh but at one year and $10 million, I don’t think they’d consider it. That’s a lot of money for at this point what Goldie is, which is a short side platoon first baseman. I mean, there’s a lot of name credibility with him and certainly the fans would, I’m sure, love to have him back, but I don’t think you can give a short side platoon first baseman that much money. Yeah, exactly. I mean, look, it I also, if I’m Paul Goldmid, if I can’t get a starting role and I have to do a accept a short side platoon, I’m probably going to I’d rather sign for a million or two less and go to a team that has a chance to get in the postseason again. Are you saying the Diamondbacks don’t have a chance to get to the postseason next year, Jack? I that have a very strong chance that are considered one of the favorites to get back to the postseason. The Diamondbacks certainly will not be one of the favorites to get back to the postseason. They’re probably going to go into the season with a 33% chance to make the postseason unless they just make some unbelievable signings and trades. Veraldez, he he’d change the equation, you know. Yeah, I think that’s very fair. Uh I I still could see it. I mean, I think the Gold Schmidt fit is is clear from the Diamondbacks perspective. I mean, what do you think, Jack, is the highest number that would be reasonable for Goldie if, you know, given that he’s just going to be a short side platoon guy? Maybe five million. Does that seem like a reasonable upper bound? Maybe an extra million in there because of the name and the pedigree and and who he is and, you know, relationship with the organization in the past and all of that. Uh, you know, so maybe $6 million, but I, you know, I don’t see him doing that. Yeah, I think you’re right to consider his side of things, like as his career kind of winds to an end, he probably wants to play in the playoffs again. It totally makes sense for him to chase after a situation like that. Uh there’s another name kind of along these lines on the position player side, Jack Miguel and Duhar. uh third baseman slashoutfielder Jim Bowden did not have him linked to the Diamondbacks, but he plays positions that the Dbacks need help where the Dbacks need help. Contract prediction there from Bowden is pretty similar. One year, 5.5 million. What are you uh what are you thinking about Miguel and Duhar? Well, I’m thinking that he’s right-handed and he’s been crushing lefties and and um you know, he’s got some good batting numbers in a platoon role. Um, and so, you know, he’s just a name out there. Look, the Dbacks are probably going to need another right-handed bat, right? Um, so, you know, maybe he can play some left field for them. He’s played some outfield. He’s listed as third base outfielder. Um, you know, he’s not great defensively in any in any way, shape, or form, but, you know, maybe he could fill the Randall Gritic type role. Um, just one other thing, uh, on this note. Um there is a poster on Twitter um that uh mentioned that he saw on Lordis Guriel’s uh uh story on Instagram which is now I guess it was only up for 24 hours that he was uh seemingly having some rather intense workouts that he wasn’t just walking around and so that that led to some optimism that you know maybe he’ll be maybe he’s not going to miss the whole first half of the season. I have no idea. That’s total speculation. Uh, but I just wanted to throw that in there. You know, as we’re thinking about needing a right-handed bat that can play left field, I did want to mention that there was some inkling out there that Lordis’ uh rehab might be going pretty well. That’s interesting. Yeah, I mean certainly Lordis’ status if if they are expecting him back sooner than later, it it would it would lessen the need for a right-handed hitting outfielder for sure. And Duhar is interesting to me, Jack, because he way outperformed his expected stats this past year. He hit 318 with an 822 OPS, but his expected batting average was 269. His exoba was 307, which is actually well below average. So, I think you’d have to expect pretty heavy regression with Miguel and Duhar. But again, if he’s just a a short side platoon type role, then I guess I guess that’s fine. He he also was minus seven outs above average. So, to what we were talking about earlier with the Dbacks wanting to get better defensively going into next year, not a great fit on uh not a great fit on that side of things, but you know, frankly, Paul Goldmid is not not nearly the first baseman that he was uh when he was with the Dbacks a long time ago either. Yeah. Well, I mean, you know, there’s a Dave McKay factor, right? You know, give I mean, and is not 35. He’s going to be 31, right? you give him in the hands of Dave McCay and maybe he can give you some reasonable um defense. And even if you go back to 23 and 24, you know, his WRC plus was 105 103. Again, we’re talking about, you know, short short side platoon right-hand hitter. Um, you know, there he’s a career 107 WRC plus. Yes, I expect some regression. I don’t expect 125 like he had this past year. Um, you know, and he was redot for the Cincinnati Reds. I mean, he put up a 159 in his time in Cincinnati. Uh, so, you know, I don’t expect that to happen. And that’s what drove his his numbers up out of whack with is expected, but, you know, he’s a league average hitter, a little bit above league average hitter that um hits definitely hits uh, you know, lefties better than righties. Um, so that’s a possibility. Again, is a a lowcost guy. They need a right-handed bat, you know, or do you just want to, you know, roll the dice with Christian Robinson, you know, Tim Tawa? I mean, that’s where you’re at. You know, you got a proven league average bat or you go with your young guys out of the minor leagues that haven’t hit the majors yet. Yeah. Yeah. Well, uh, I guess it is one thing to kind of look at what’s out there in free agency and wonder, oh, is this player worth such and such dollar value, but when you look at what the Dbacks have in house, like the types of players they would have to count on if they didn’t fill some of these some of these gaps on the roster, then it provides some perspective like, you know, what are you willing to expect from Tim Tawa next year? What are you willing to expect from Christian Robinson? My guess is the Dbacks are going to want to add uh several players just to add some cushion and not put so much pressure on some of those young guys. Uh that’s everyone I had on my list. Jack, is there anyone we’re missing? Anyone you want to circle back to here? No, I think we covered, you know, the most intriguing guys for me today on that list. Bowden has Luis. This is like totally not diamond. Like Dbacks are not going to sign Luis Arise, but two years and 30 million for Luis Arise. This fascinate fascinating like would any team actually pay Luis Arise that at this point? I know he’s still like never strikes out, but he’s basically a replacement level player this past year. It’s just a fascinating free agent case. Yeah. Well, I mean, you know, batting titles, flags fly forever, all that stuff. Do batting title flags fly forever? I guess so. I guess uh I guess you he was worth 1.3 war according to baseball reference this past year. It was better better than I thought. Uh well yeah we we could go through and talk about all of the other names on this list, but uh we’re we’re going to go ahead and stop there on this edition of Snakes Territory. We would love to hear from all of you what you thought of all these names that we discussed. Drop a comment. We’d love to hear from you. Be sure as well to leave a like on this video and subscribe to our channel if you haven’t already. Sign up for notifications so that you never miss an episode of the show. If you’re joining us over on an audio only platform, it would also really help us out if you’d leave us a fivestar review wherever you get your podcast. You can find us over on social media. I am Jesse Freriedman. Jack is at shoeizard 59. And our show is at snakes territory. Of course, you can find all of Jack’s great written work over at si.commlbdiamondbacks. Am I getting that right, Jack? Did the URL change? They added slash onsi. Okay, so it’s si.commlbdiamondbackonssi. Yeah. Okay. Or just go to my my uh Twitter page and then there’s a link there if you go to my bio. That’s probably the probably the easier way to get there at this point. If you find it once, you can just bookmark the page and you never have to think about the the URL ever again. Be sure to find Jack’s work over there. Uh thank you again to all of you for being with us on this episode. We really appreciate it and we’ll be back with another edition of Snakes Territory very, very soon. [Music]

Framber Valdez? Munetaka Murakami? Brandon Woodruff? Jim Bowden dropped his top 50 free agents list with contract predictions, and we dive in to find the best fits for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Could the D-backs actually sign one of the top Japanese free agents? Is a Josh Naylor reunion in play? Given the team’s expected payroll cut, we take a particularly close look at some potential bargain options on Bowden’s list.

Could Jose Quintana give the D-backs what they need in the No. 5 spot in the rotation? And how much would Paul Goldschmidt cost as a short-side platoon bat? Join Jesse Friedman and Jack Sommers for another offseason edition of Snakes Territory.

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00:00 Intro
01:45 Could D-backs go after Framber Valdez?
09:05 Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami
16:38 Contract predictions for Eugenio Suárez, Merrill Kelly
20:40 Is Brandon Woodruff a realistic target?
26:14 No. 5 starter options
36:06 Kyle Finnegan for closer?
40:15 Drew Pomeranz
42:57 Paul Goldschmidt reunion
45:27 Miguel Andujar
51:06 Outro