What’s sustainable from the Miami Heat’s strong start | Five on the Floor

What’s sustainable from the Miami Heat’s strong start | Five on the Floor

Welcome to the latest episode of Five on the Floor, Five Reasons Sports Network. Thanks for joining us on your favorite podcast app on Apple, Apple Podcast. On Android, we recommend Spotify. Also check out the Five Reasons YouTube channel for all your South Florida. Also off the floor, that’s our Discord server. That’s two bucks 99 cents per month. Uh you can check out again the link and you’ll bypass the Apple Upcharge. You can cancel at any time. 10 different channels plus the stage shows. We put more content there than you’ll find anywhere else. This is the place for the most heat information and conversation. It’s off the floor. Place to go if you have a car accident. 305800 pain. That’s 305800 PAN. Our friends, they’re based in Dural. Manny Danny. Their entire team down there. They will connect you with the right attorney to handle your situation. Slip and fall car accident. They do all of it. Bilingual. They’re 247. Again, it’s 305800 PIN. The brand is the phone number. 305800 pain. And now today’s episode. Uhoh. Yeah, it’s Mercy Music by Mercy again. He keep nation the culture. Yo, I need you to call some out for the shot. Still five on the floor. Still ride for my dog on the court. Survive in the war. Keep your eye on the ball or get burned from the heat. The mic off the wall without turning the cheek from night to day. No sleeping pads or allowed to mourn us. They love to sleep on us. Never catch a storm alive from Miami. We pour in the heat with five reasons from the court to the streets. [Music] We’re carrying patient. [Applause] Welcome to Five on the Floor, a daily insider show on the Miami Heat and the NBA featuring Ethan Skolnick, Greg Sander, Alex Toledo, Brady Hawk, and others from the Five Reason Sports Network. Also, make sure to subscribe to Off the Floor for the most heat anywhere. Welcome back to Five on the Flo. Here’s today’s floor plan. I’m Ethan Skolnick. You can follow me at Ethan J Skolick and at Five Reason Sports at Greg Sander. You can follow Greg Sllander. The Miami Heat are four and three. They’ve got one game left on this road trip. It’s in Denver just coming off an exhilarating really regular season win. Uh one-point win against the Clippers. First time they’ve beaten Kawhi Leonard in the regular season since 2013. That’s a crazy stat. And he had the ball in his hands at the end. But the Heat defense led by Bam Adabio and Norm Powell at the end uh did enough and ended up winning that game. Big shots made late by Bam, by Wiggins. Uh Powell had strong moments, shot 60% from the floor. Uh Pel Larson had pockets of that game where he was the most dynamic player out there. And KL Weer played well early in the game. In fact, pretty much everybody played well except Nicole Yoic, which is another conversation uh we’ll be having going forward. But I I want to talk about and we got into some rotation stuff last night on the postgame show. We appreciate everybody who joined us very late night. But I want to talk about what’s sustainable from this start because this is a team and I said this on the on the podcast last night. They they have the potential I think I think to play for the sum I’m sorry to describe this incorrect for the sum to be greater than their parts. Um they seem to be additive to each other. We’re seeing this play out off the court. Um the way that they’ve come together, Norm Powell has been a breath of fresh air, that was expected. We know that relieving themselves of the cloud that was around last year on its own was going to be helpful, but Powell has a reputation for fitting in really well with teammates. He has. Last night they were spraying him with what was it? Champagne or some other kind of alcohol at the end of the game. Water bottles. Oh, water bottles. Yes. See how my mind’s in the gutter here, but uh they they were very happy for Nor Dorm that he beat the Clippers and it just again seems like they’ve got this kind of collegial spirit going on. Now winning, we’ve talked about this, winning can lead to chemistry. Uh more so I think than chemistry leads to winning, but it helps to have it and then you can kind of build on it. And it does look like that’s what they’re doing right here. And it looks like Eric Sper has a team that he wants to coach, which has not necessarily been the case the past couple of years if you’ve read his body language and also some of the decision-making. So, Greg, as I look at it, and then we looking at Tyler Hero coming back relatively soon. Casper uh Yakonis is questionable for the first time, which means that there’s a chance he’s going to play. He’s closer to playing. Doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to be in the rotation, but he could be available to them. So, there are some good things that are happening here. And I’m going to go through some of the numbers here and and I’m going to ask you what you think is sustainable. Okay. So, to start this season, Norm Powell averaging 30 minutes a game in his four games is averaging 23 points, 50% from the floor, 53 or 52% from three, 93% from the line on seven and a half at attempts. I’ll say this. I think it’s sustainable that he’s going to be counted on to score on a nightly basis and he’s going to do it right. I can’t speak to the numbers, but I I don’t think there’s anything about his play that is a, you know, is, you know, is fake so far, right? No, I’ll say something wild. I think Norm has a legit shot at a 50 40 90 season. I think he can do that. And I what I’ll say is not sustainable is 52% from three. If he does sustain that, more power to him. And I good um good on him and his representation for what that extension will look like at 52% from three. But, uh, I think that him and the way that he’s being used offensively and this team, the way that they play offensively, the fact that those two things coincide to work together, means that most of what we’re seeing from Norm, aside from maybe 52% from three and I guess 93% from the free throw line is pretty damn high. I think it’s sustainable. like I don’t see what he’s doing out there and say uh this is just a really good stretch from him and he’s gonna have you know a month where he goes and looks like a shell of himself. Obviously those things can happen but I don’t think there’s any indication yet that this looks like the type of player or the type of team just the way that those two things mesh um in this new system where Norm’s going to have uh you know a prolonged period where he’s off. Yeah. I don’t see a lot of four for 17 nights coming. I don’t think there’s going to be a ton of inefficiency. There will be some nights where again he doesn’t have it and that happens for any player, but I don’t see him forcing things in a way that’s going to hurt this team and his finishing has been better than I anticipated. So, you add all those things together, I do think this is sustainable. I said he’d score over 20 this year. I I thought that was the easiest long-term play on prize picks. Use code five. We’ll talk about that more in a second, but I went over on the 20 because I I just think even with Tyler back, the opportunities are going to be there. And now with the pace hiked, there’s more chances for him to score. And Spo’s not going to pull it back at all. So, I do think that’s sustainable. Let me get to your favorite here. Ano is having a nice start. I I don’t think anybody can argue with that, even those who are critical of him at times. He’s averaging 22.4 four points in 33.6 minutes, 9.1 rebounds. I think if he averages that over 75 I want to get to that because that is sort of not expected. But the 9.1 rebounds, if he averages that over 75 games, he’ll pass Hasslam this year uh for alltime uh rebounds for the for the Heat. So, that’s just something to watch. 3.3 assists, 1.1 steals. The more impressive thing than the steals or the blocks or anything like that is just again one through five. Uh guarding everybody from Harden to uh who was it the night before to Luca. I mean all all down the line. Uh he’s shooting 46% overall. He’s 53% from two, 36% from three on 6.4 attempts. A lot of those came in one game, but still uh 46% overall is below his career norm. Again, you he’s mixing in a lot more threes now, so that is going to affect it. 86% from the line. I I I’ll say this about him. The when the defense is going to be there, he’s playing as high a level as he ever has. I I know it doesn’t translate to points allowed for the Heat, but what he’s doing consistently is at his level or beyond. But it’s the consistency of the shot attempts. I think you hit on it. He’s averaging 17 shot attempts this season. 17. The old number was 15. That was the target number. Now Tyler’s not back. That may take a little bit of a hit when Tyler comes back. But with the pace being elevated, I do think he stays over the 15 shot attempts per game. And I don’t know that we’re going to have a lot of the seven shot attempts per game. We’ve only had one of those type of games this entire season. Yeah. And Norm is so damn efficient that he’s getting what he’s getting on 13 and a half attempts. I thought he was going to have to shoot a lot more to score the way that he is. We’ll see if Tyler acclimates to this offense the same way. We said in our season preview show and all of y’all rolled your eyes at me and I understood why you did cuz I always just prop up Bam, right? But I said that I thought he he could lead the team in scoring this year. And it had a lot to do with that I it wasn’t that I knew what Spo was going to do differently on offense. I just knew that in this new era, you were going to have to take your Max player and you were going to have to involve him a lot more. And I didn’t know what that might look like. So far, it’s meant more field goal attempts. I think he’ll continue to get that because to your point like having a Heat team that’s fourth in the league in scoring and where they are in pace things like that we all have to adjust uh the way that we think about Miami Heat scoring because in all past renditions they weren’t scoring at this clip and it just wasn’t the type of thing that you could chop up enough points uh to reach the total where you got this many guys in double figures. Haimey Hawz is taking a ton of shots off the bench and playing a really great role. But um I’ll say that Bam’s field goal attempts. Honestly, Ethan, I don’t know that he’ll lead the team, but I think staying Riley used to say 15. I’ll say he can stay clearly above 16 to end the season. Well, if he does that, I think a lot of Heat fans will sort of pull back on him because that that’s been the consistent criticism has been the games that he disappears. I also think that as they find a more comfortable rhythm here with the guards when Tyler comes back that Bam may get some easier opportunities. I do think they’re going to mix in a little bit more pick and roll than they have so far this season once Tyler comes back. I don’t think they’re going to go totally back to it. And we we talked about this on the episode about them changing their offensive style and the ro and all that. I don’t think they’re going to go totally back to where they were, but they are there’s going to be a little bit more of a pick and roll diet. I think there’ll be some some portions of the game where just to get Bam and Tyler going, they’ll be some of those called and you know the players will have the ability to call them because Spo has relinquished some control in that regard. But I do think that they will run more of it and I do think uh Bam will get some of those opportunities. All right, before we get to the break here, I want to bring up two players here. Now, one one of these things is just not sustainable. So, I’ll just mention Jameakas is not going to shoot 60% this season. I mean, this is he he’s shooting 66% from two. Okay, he’s he’s made six and a basically six and a half twos per game out of a little less than 10. He’s also, by the way, shooting 79% from the line on four attempts, which has been a nice bonus. Almost seven rebounds and almost five assists. The He’s averaging 17, seven, and five if you round up. 17 7 and five again on 60% shooting from the field. But I’m going to give you another forward here. Wiggins in two more minutes per game is shooting 51% from the floor averaging 16.3, five rebounds, just under two assists. That’s not Andrew’s forte. 1.3 steals, one block. He’s also shooting 34% from three, which based on his career norms is about right. Uh and he’s shooting uh only 58% of the line. That’s been a bit of an issue this year, and he hasn’t gotten there as much as we’d hope. Is it Look, I It’s not sustainable for Hawkins to shoot 60 plus% from the floor. No. But which of the two of them do you think is more likely to keep their current level of play? Uh I think they both will keep their current level of play. I really think Hawz is here to stay this year. I think that that that is I know it’s early and and things could change and Wiggins you’re going to get what you’re consistently getting out of Wiggins. I think the larger question will be and I know Spolster is a creature of habit so he’ll want to keep Hawz in his role but the question from Heat fans is going to be whether it be Nico whether it be Hakez is Wiggins redundant and could you flip him for something else if Hakez continues to play any where uh in the realm of where he’s playing now he’s not going to shoot that well and Nico’s had his ups and downs but you would hope that he rounds himself into um a a consistent role and then Larson as well. So, there’s like plenty of guys that I think can kind of fill in, maybe not do everything that Wigs does. Um, so it’s just that’s going to be an ongoing thing when you talk about trades and Heat fans looking at transactions and how to improve the roster. Ethan, Wiggins is going to be the primary chip because of his salary. Well, and I think some Heat fans are going to say maybe time for a consolidation trade, which is kind of what you’re getting at, especially with Tyler coming back and they’ve already, you know, they’re already going 10 basically. I mean, depending on the night, but they’re already going 10 when Powell plays. So, when Tyler comes back, then somebody’s going to get squeezed. I want to talk about that on the other side. I I think Wiggins current numbers are more sustainable than Hawkeyes is because Hakez is ridiculous. That’s it. I He’s not going to shoot 60% from the floor. there is going to be some kind of adjustment made to him. He’s going to have to make an adjustment back. I’m with you on the fact though that this does him playing at a at a at a good level for them, which is not something that we anticipated based off of last season. I think that is sustainable. I don’t think the numbers are going to stay where they’re at. Agreed. But you make a good point. He’s I mean, if you’re comfortable giving him even more minutes, I mean, right now he’s at what is he at? Uh he’s averaging 29. And if you’re comfortable hiking his minutes to 33 with some of the other options that they have, then it does make an Andrew Wiggins trade a little bit easier for you uh to be able to process. But the question is, do you want to use Wiggins for something bigger? And does it have to be now? It could be next year also when he’s expiring. So, you don’t necessarily have to do it now. It’s a good As long as they’re in the running in the East for a homecourt seed, they are not going to be sellers. Sorry, folks. No, they won’t be sellers, but it’s a question of what you can. I don’t think they’ll be sellers of Wiggins. I think they could be they could use Wiggins contract in as part of a consolidation to maybe get good point the guy. Well, not the guy, but some the guy before the guy or something along those lines. All right, let’s talk about prize picks here. You can play all these players on prize pick. Use the code 5 f put down your five bucks. You get $50 in free lineups. Prize Pix is the official fantasy partner of the Five Reason Sports Network. Again, it is legal in the state of Florida. MLB is done now, but you still got NHL, NFL. I mean, everywhere but in Miami, uh, NFL, NBA, and more. We’re going to start doing regular prize pick shows, too. So, check it out. It’s prizepix.com, Google Play Store, or the Apple App Store. Use the code FIVE. They’ve got new features there all the time. If you see another code in there, delete it. Add ours. Ours is better. You get those $50 in free lineups. All right, so let’s take a look at some of the rest of this. Again, I’m talking about this team being greater than the sum of their parts right now. But a lot of the parts have played well, but two of the parts that we’ve questioned a little bit before I get to DaVon Mitchell, who’s an interesting discussion in his own are Yovic and Wear. Um, right now Wear is averaging 19 minutes. Nico’s averaging 22. Uh, Wear is shooting 53% from the floor on seven attempts. is shooting 40% from the floor. That’s the lowest of any heat regular, by the way 6.7 attempts. Uh Nico is shooting 35% from three on 3.7 attempts. That’s about right what I expected. Where is actually averaging he’s shooting 40% on 2.9 attempts. Uh Nico is shooting 48% for the line on just three attempts. I I don’t really know what’s going on. No, I’m sorry. No, I’m sorry. My bad. I read that wrong. He’s just he’s for he’s 48% on twos. 78% on free throws. I was like that I I noticed him be that bad. 78% on free throws. Where is it? 80%. Neither of them is getting to the line a whole bunch. Nico’s averaging four rebounds. Wear is averaging 6.6. Nico’s averaging uh just under three assists. We’re under one. Uh and on and on. But points uh where 9.7 points. Nico 8.7 points. I I think it’s fair to say that neither of them has popped, right? like that’s their hot. Okay. And considering they extended Nico, it’s a little more concerning with him. Um, but he’s had moments where he’s looked good, but he just hasn’t harnessed that role the way Hakez basically is playing. But why is it That’s my question. But but Greg, why has he not harnessed it when this it seems like this offense was built for him? Yeah, it it it has to do with the second unit and the shooting. And basically I I I don’t know what else it could be other than just going through a funky period where the shooting and the decision-m has looked a little weird cuz you’re right like he really is put in a position with that second unit to do everything that he was uh build as having strength to do and they’re not asking him to do too much. They’re not asking him to uh initiate offense, full court, end to end, nothing like that. It’s really read and react, pass quickly, move. Those are all things that were supposed to be hallmarks of Nico. And you see a guy like DaVon come in and find ways to, you know, I’m just like, we talk about sustainability. Can he be top 12 in assists all year? Because he’s 12th right now ahead of a lot of other point guards that you’d be surprised of their names. So, it’s just interesting that Nico uh hasn’t found that role when we expected him to be really served a perfect opportunity and where for all of the moments he’s had that have been up and down, I have to continue to say that the dude does respond. I don’t know that it’s going to continue to work out that way for him. Uh, I predicted on off the floor the other night that I don’t know that these two are long for each other, player and organization. We’ll see. But where he has um responded in ways that I wish guys like Whiteside would have back when they were on the team. Yeah. You just don’t want to have to push him over and over and over. I I think that’s kind of where we’re at with it. And the wear bam numbers together have been bad. Like really bad. And that bear is watching because if that’s going to continue, I mean, it’s hard to hold a guy out of trade talks when the most he can be as your backup center. Exactly. So, going to need to figure that out. I I I’ve been a little disappointed by Yoic so far. I know people mentioned that because I’ I’ve been a big Yoic guy. Um I I was expecting more than this. I I do think, you know, some of it is just it could be a seven game stretch of the season where, you know, he’s just not in his finest form, but I I’m I’m watching him a lot and I’m like, he doesn’t really sometimes look like he knows where to go. And I I thought he would this year because again, they’re they’re running an offense that seems suited to his talents. And he’s going to have to get it right now because Spo’s going to go small. I mean, that’s that’s where this is headed. Like when Tyler comes back, Wiggins is going to play I apologize Sean for this. Wiggins is going to play a lot of four. Hawkins is going to play a lot of four, right? I can see a lot of games with one of those two guys closing at the four and him rolling out DaVon Hero and Powell with Bam. And I can also see that potentially being a starting lineup. So if that’s the case, then it it becomes then then it’s like Nico and Wear become guys for like certain segments of the game and that’s tough, right? Yeah. And that that’s hard mentally, especially when Yoic came into and he talked about this with us and others immediately came into this season think I want to start, I want to close, but right now he’s not one of their five best guys. I I thought this year he could be one of their three or four best guys, but he hasn’t been. That’s without Tyler being back as of yet. And Bam has clearly shown to be one of their three best guys. Powell has shown to be one of their three best guys. And Hawz has shown to be one of their three best guys so far this year. Right. Um and there have been times where Wiggins, you know, has has had that, you know, in certain segments. So Nico is going to have to pick that up. You mentioned Davon though, and I want to pivot to him real quick because it’s not just the seven uh assists, seven 7.7. It It’s also 1.4 turnovers. He’s got like a 5 and a half to one assist to turnover ratio. He’s shooting 35% from three and I’m fine with that. He wasn’t going to shoot 45% this year. Right. No, it’s fine if he does those other things. Right. Right. But you didn’t, you and I both didn’t think, none of us thought he was going to shoot the way he shot 40. No, but right where he’s at now, doing the things he does defensively with the assists. To me, it’s huge. Another thing to illustrate before we turn the page on Nico quickly, he averaged 25 minutes a game last year in 46 games. He’s down to 21 minutes in the first seven games. Just to be down to last year’s minutes to me is um that that’s disconcerting. But it does show you that Fonteio and Hakez have played so much better than we expected that the Heat still look like they’re in good position to pull together. Um, you know, it’s early, but they look like they can have a really competitive season despite two guys that we thought had to be huge factors in Wear and Nico having big question marks, right? And I think we all want to see it beware and Yovic because it it because their upsides seem to be higher and their youth that it, you know, pretends better for the future if it’s them. But that I’m glad that you mentioned Fonteo because I want to get into this before we close. Fonteo, Drew Smith, and Pella Larson have all played well. All three of them to the point that it’s difficult to decide who’s going to come out of the rotation when Tyler comes back. I mean, all all of them have done their own thing in their own way. Fontio is averaging 20 minutes a game, shooting 54%, 51% from three on 5.6 attempts, averaging almost 13 points a game. They’re going to play till he stops shooting good, right? Well, and with Tyler back, there may be games they decide not to. But, but then in in So, that’s 20 minutes. Pella is averaging 18 minutes. That includes four starts, 53% from the floor, 40% from three, three attempts. But if he just does that, like he’s enough of a threat. Um I think he’s going to start getting to the line more, too. Eight points a game. And Drew has just had moments like Drew Drew just does some things and you’re like, “Okay, there he is.” Uh he’s shooting 50% from the floor and 4.6 attempts. He’s averaging four assists, 5.4 rebounds, right? You trust him. So those three guys like I look do I expect Fontio to continue to shoot if over 50% from three? No. He shot 31% from three last year. But what Larson and Drew do that’s nightly like those are they are role players on good teams. That’s what and it’s funny because I I’ve talked about this before but I had this conversation with Shane Badier once where he said look you put me on a bad team I’m useless. Like I serve you no value. Like you can’t give me the ball and isolate. I’ll trip over myself. Okay. Right. You put me on a good team though and I end up, you know, Yeah. making it all connect and work. Right. Exactly. I enhance it in that way. And Drew and Pella are those kind of players. And Spoke can go to both of them or one of them on a nightly basis. I think that Fonteio’s minutes may come back a little bit when Tyler comes back. The need for him is a little bit less. I I think Larson and Drew, one or both, is going to get in there for their usual aotment of kind of 13 to 18 minutes. Like, you’re going to see them out there. And again, getting back to all of this and why I think people are starting to and even national media is starting to like this team a little bit more. I don’t expect them to beat Denver. They never beat Denver. It’s the end of a road trip. It would be amazing if they beat Denver. I don’t expect it. But then they come home and they got a big home slate and they got some softer teams on the schedule. They can start to build something here with Tyler coming back. Our whole thing on these first 10 games was or first eight games just survive them. Just survive them. They’re going to come out of those first eight no worse than four and four without hero with Powell missing some of them. Every single player on this roster should have confidence right now except maybe wear and Yovic. And I think that’s a good thing for the Heat because those two guys have the potential to give them a lot more. I don’t know. Like I’m not trying to get too excited about anything right now, but you look at the rest of the East. Orlando is struggling to kind of figure out their offense. Atlanta is going to be without Trey for a month or more. Indiana has completely given up. Okay. Nobody really trusts Boston. You start to look at some of these teams. He’d already have a win against the Knicks. And Spolster wants that damn coach of the year at least once. Damn it. He doesn’t want it. No, he doesn’t want it. But but it it would be nice to have he wants the results that that create the buzz about it, but he doesn’t want it. Bam wants defensive player of the year, but Spo never wants that. Damn. Yeah. More. Everybody wins that gets fired. But you’re not gonna get fired, but still. But I I’m just saying as we go through this, there’s more of this that is sustainable than that is not. Agree. And a lot of that has to do with the offensive shift, honestly. Yeah. Yeah, it does. And and finding an offensive system that was going to fit the talent, but also that the talent was going to buy into. And right now, look, you look at the Jimmy trade. Just to close on this, they got Wiggins, who’s obviously filling a role for them right now and may fill a role for them in a in a trade at some point. DaVon Casperis who we haven’t even seen yet and they’re ultimately gonna move towards him. It may not be this year. And look, the Powell the Powell trade, one of the pieces from the Powell trade uh came in the Jimmy trade, too. I’m not going to say that Powell’s a straight line to it, but you basically gave up Kevin Love, Duncan Robinson, Kyle Anderson, and Jimmy Butler, and you’ve gotten back Norm Powell, Andrew Wiggins, DaVon Mitchell, Casper’s Yakonis, and Simonia Fonte. It’s not bad. It’s not bad. It’s I think some benefit of the doubt should be given here at this point of the season, but we’ll see. We’ll see how they get through it. All right. Uh, thanks to Greg, thanks to our sponsors, prize pictures, use code fiv. Have a good one, everybody. Thank you for listening to the five on the floor on the five reason sports network. After all, someone needs to listen to my dad.

Through a challenging stretch of the schedule, without Tyler Herro, the Miami Heat are 4-3, and much of their roster is playing well. Ethan Skolnick and Greg Sylvander go through the list of what can keep up, and what might fall back.

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