[Schatz] With Denver winning last night, our simulations now have the Broncos winning the AFC West 58% of the time. Chiefs 32%, Chargers 10%.

26 comments

  2. Not confident we win out. I think the Broncos d line dominates us. I also think the Colts run down our throats. I think we sneak in on a wild card.

  3. Feels like the broncos barely win every game they win and we barely lose every game we lose. Just how the season is going

  5. Last night was a joke. One of the worst games I have ever watched. Just egregious football by both teams.

  8. The Broncos have us twice, the Packers, Jaguars, and Chargers. Those should all be tough fights for them. If we handle our business there’s potentially some wiggle room. They also have Raiders and Commanders. Both those teams are kind of a mess, but they did almost lose to the Raiders last night.

    The Chargers and Broncos playing each other still really helps.

    The Chargers also have decent opponents in Steelers, Jags, and Eagles. I don’t really know what to make of the Texans and Cowboys right now. Both feel like they should be better than their record, but have played like ass much of the year.

  9. Chiefs have faced darker odds and come out on top beforehand but this is as bleak a season I can remember in a good long while. Shutting the donks up at Mile High begins a SLOG of a schedule, and if we have to hold another L…man I just don’t know…

  11. There are lots of things that have led us to this point, but I think the most egregious was the loss to Jacksonville.

    That loss needs to be a point of concern going into the off season, and whatever we fix or adjust for next year needs to be at least partially in response to that game.

  12. We’re still the favorites in Vegas. If this person truly had useful a simulation, they’d be putting a bunch of money on Denver right now.

  13. Denver is barely beating mediocre teams while the Chiefs are barely losing to good teams. If the Chiefs start executing better there’s a good chance they can win out and steal the division.

  14. The broncos are not a good team. Borderline playoff team at best. Good for them. They ain’t winning shit lol

  15. That will flip once we sweep denver. We’re gonna have to go 5-1 in the division this year to win it. We can lose another game, but not in the division.

  20. We sweep Denver and win the home game against LA and I imagine our odds go WAY up. Having seen a lot of Denver games this year, they aren’t good. But they also can beat any team in the league that can’t block up the rush. I’ve seen this Chiefs core win a Super Bowl after winning 3 playoff games w/2 on the road.

    I think our actual odds of winning the division are better than Schatz model, but I will admit that despite annually way overrating Baltimore I have found his DVOA statistics useful and was a regular reader of Football Outsiders when Schatz and Tanier ran it.

    One side note-It pisses me off every time I see WR Troy Franklin make a big play. I desperately wanted KC to draft him and he somehow inexplicably fell to the 4th round. Problem was we didn’t have a 3rd in 2024 and our 1st (Worthy) and 2nd (Kingsley) both look like good-great picks. Maybe we could have traded the first 4th that became Jared Wiley and Felix Anuduke-Ozama to get to the early 3rd? Despite being poorly positioned to get Franklin despite his fall, I saw enough of him at Oregon to think there was some “receiver making the QB” like Mike Evans convincing the NFL Johnny Manziel was a first rounder. Franklin wasn’t exactly Mike Evans, but Nix is a Pud who reminds me a lot of Derrick Carr-capable of making miracles happen occasionally late in close games but more prone to throw with his eyes closed or take a sack or throw out of bounds on 4th down. He’s a backbreaking mistake just itching to happen and 3-4 years of big hits and NFL wear and tear will remove whatever value he has as a scrambler. I think Payton (despite being the most egotistical coach this side of Bill B) is good enough to win games with Nix and a top D and will definitely win the AFC West at least once if he sticks around 5-6 years. I’m just skeptical it’s gonna be this year?

    KC comes out of the bye and beats Denver and Indy I think we’re back in the driver seat and #1 in national power rankings. We lose either and the Wild Card looks more likely. But I think this team could win the Super Bowl as a Wild Card if most of our offensive line starters play and McDuffie spends most of his time in the slot in the playoffs. Spags is the BEST, but his insistence that Chamari Conner is a slot defender against receivers and tight ends and Bolton can handle similar duties in a pinch is killing us in games like LA and Buffalo.

  22. Hey… from time to time, you have to let your little brother win or they won’t play anymore.

  24. We’re not winning the division, we’ll be lucky to make the playoffs as inconsistent as this team is.

  26. Last night featured a game with more penalties than points scored.

    This division is still the Chiefs to lose. Those teams are hot garbage.

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