Orlando Magic’s starting five SHINES | Franz Wagner FIXES his 3-point woes?

Orlando Magic’s starting five SHINES | Franz Wagner FIXES his 3-point woes?

It’s been a slow start to the season for the Orlando Magic, but there are signs of a breakout and a lot of them are in the starting lineup. Proof of concept today on Locked On Magic. You are Locked On Magic, your daily Orlando Magic podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. And you are indeed locked on Magic. Today is November 4th, 2025. My name is Philip Rosik. I’m the senior writer over at Orlando Magicaily.com, credentialed member of the Orlando Magic media since the 2012 season. On today’s episode of Lockdown Magic, proof of concept. Why the early lineups that the Magic put out, even excluding the last two games, is a sign the Magic are going to be good and going to be fine, be exactly what we think. Plus, why Anthony Black is still the swing player for this team. We’re going to get to that coming up here in just a moment. But first, we want to thank you again for making Lockdown Magic part of your day every day. No matter when you listen to us, whether it’s first in the morning, whether it’s right when we upload, we truly appreciate you making lockdown magic part of your day every day. You can make lockdown magic even bigger part of your day by being one of our Orlando Magic dailies. That means you’re listening five days a week. That means you’re listening on the weekends. That means we’re part of your regular rotation. That means we’re your first listen of the day. Truly appreciate all of you who make Locked on Magic part of your day every day. It’s all part of Lockdown Podcast Network. It’s your team every day. Today’s episode of Locked On Magic is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code lockdown NBA for $20 off your first purchase. The Orlando Magic are sitting at three and four. And none of us are happy about that. Let’s let’s be clear. None of us thought this would be where the Magic started. When the schedule came out, I was like, “Oh, first eight games, six and two is possible. Five and three would be very good. Four and four would be a little disappointing.” But here we are. Can’t change what’s happened. The Magic have a really nice opening night win against the Heat. They took care of their business in a couple get-Right games against the Charlotte Hornets and the Washington Wizards, two games that you expect to win. But against other playoff level competition, or at least teams that we expect to be competing for the playin tournament, the Magic struggled and perhaps we underestimated how m how much it would take to bring this team together. Perhaps we underestimated the growth of certain players off the bench. Perhaps we underestimated just the difficulty of a new season of trying to change some offensive mindsets. Or perhaps we just couldn’t predict how deeply pace and speed would would enter the NBA this season and lead to offenses going wild over the first week of the season. I think it’s important to remember that it’s still very very early. Nothing is set in stone. Nothing has changed. Nothing nothing is completely done. The Cleveland Cavaliers are not playing much better than the Magic. The Knicks aren’t playing much better than the Magic or at least record-wise aren’t much better. There is still a long, long road ahead of us. So, we’re looking right now for signs that things are going to stabilize or or or what seems to be sticking that’s going to stabilize. Right now, we the Magic are still a top 10 defense in the league after the last two games. Things aren’t stable yet. So, we expect the Magic to be one of the best defensive teams in the league. We’re going to forget what happened in Philadelphia and Detroit very, very quickly. And look, the Magic had an 87 defensive rating against the Wizards. That writes the ship pretty well. I would argue the Magic’s offense been a lot better than people give a credit for. Over the last four games, or during this road trip, the last four games of this road trip, the Magic have a 121 offensive rating. They’ve got like the the the fourth best offense in the league over the last week. Now, again, small sample size. So, we’re looking for these little signs of like, okay, what’s what’s going to stick? What’s going to last? And I think there is one thing that tells us this is going to be okay. Especially as the Magic continue to ramp up Jaylen Suggs minutes, especially as the Magic continue to get comfortable playing with each other, one thing, one foundational thing is going to be got to mean this is okay. And that is the starting lineup. The Orlando Magic starting lineup, Jaylen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Fron Vagner, Paulo Bancero, and Wendo Carter Jr. has a plus 22 net rating in 56 minutes together. A 121.2 offensive rating and a 99.2 defensive rating. Among the lineups that have played at least 50 minutes together this so far this season, the Magic starting group is second in the league behind only the Utah Jazz’s starting group of Keonte George, SV Mook, Lori Markin, Kyle Philipski, and Walker Kessle. Humongous line. Maybe that’s not the greatest sign in the world. Utah’s also two and four. But even if we take out the two games against the Wizards and the Hornets, two two games that the Magic won fairly easily, the Magic starting lineup has a net rating of plus 13.2 points per 100 possessions with a more than respectable 117 offensive rating and a 103.7 defensive rating among lineups through Wednesday’s game. So, we’re just we throw out the last two games after that Detroit game. The Magic starting lineup was the third best in the league that had played at least 40 minutes together. Only the Utah Jazz lineup is still ahead of them. The San Antonio’s first starting lineup passes them in that in that regard. To me, that means that something is indeed working about that starting group. And look, everything is an outgrowth from that starting group. Like I I would call the starting lineup as far as like looking at lineups. Your starting lineup is sort of like their backbone. It stabilizes everything. Everything just kind of shoots off of it. Um every lineup, every rotation is built off the kind of structure that is your starting lineup. Like yo, we’re going to take FRS out first so we can play with the bench group. We’re going to take, you know, Jaylen Suggs right now is playing three to four minutes spurts. Anthony Black jumps in. We’re going to talk about Anthony Black here in a minute. the starting lineup is doing its job this year. It’s Yeah, it’s about finding the right bench groups and finding the right bench lineups and maintaining defensive intensity and offense and offensive efficiency. But but especially once Jaylen Suggs is released from these minute restrictions, averaging about 19 minutes per game right now, once Jaylen Suggs is released from the injur from the injury restrictions, this is a group that it feels like could really take off, could really find its groove, could really be I don’t want to say a dominant force, but the kind of the kind of lineup that builds leads for a bench to hold on to, can finish games like they did against Miami and can be just a it’s the basis for a 5-1 win team. It’s the basis for a really strong team. Now, again, we’re only dealing with 58 minutes here. It’s It’s not a lot quite yet, but it tells me something that even if we throw out the Magic’s two best offensive not two best offensive games of the year, but two of the Magic’s best offensive games of the year, if we throw out these two blowout wins that the Magic had, their offense still looks good and we’ll take 117 after the last decade and their defense still looks good. So, if you’re looking for through seven games, proof of concept, if you’re looking through seven games to see like are the Magic really on the right track, you know, did they spend too much on Desmond Bane who’s obviously not quite delivered the shooting that the Magic hoped for? And you know, you talk to anybody with the Magic, they’re confident it’s going to come. They said that Octavius skull Pope last year, but Desmond Bane, as I said yesterday, is contributing in other ways. But if you’re looking for proof of concept that the Magic are on the right track, this is a sure sign of it. This is a sure sign that the Magic are doing something right now. They’re there’s still work to do. They’re not done. They’ve got to continue building and continue getting better. But sitting here getting ready for this eighth game of the season, this was a you know the end of this road trip was a big big point was a was kind of a point I think we marked in August saying this is a chance to check up on the team. Our next checkup will be after the Thanksgiving road trip when the NBA Cup stuff that when the NBA Cup group play ends. The Magic Du seem to be trending in the right direction and and tonight’s game against Atlanta is a huge one to just say, “Okay, now we can, you know, even without Trey Young, we can beat a playoff level team and do it on national TV, which is not insignificant.” um we can beat a playoff level team and the Magic can continue building and growing from there with a big game on Friday in the NBA Cup with the big g, you know, with another game against Boston, a tough game against Portland and then that game against the Knicks coming up next week. This is proof that it can work and the Magic are going to lean on their starting lineup even more. Now, we talked about Jaylen Suggs and what he does for the starting lineup. It is worth noting what happens when you put Anthony Black in because that’s going to happen still this year. Why Anthony Black remains the swing player for the Magic. We’re going to get to that coming up here in just a moment. But first, today’s episode of Lockdown Magic is brought to our friends over at Game Time. Basketball season is officially here and nothing beats being in the arena for those opening games. But let’s be real, getting tickets can be a total headache. Between waiting in cues, surprise fees, and prices that jump right before checkout, it’s easy to get frustrated when all you want to do is cheer on your team. That’s where Game Time comes in. The app that gives fans the advantage. It’s your ultimate life hack for scoring amazing NBA tickets fast, easy, and stress-free. I use Game Time throughout the summer to go to concerts. Got got tickets to a show uh from one of my favorite bands. Game time had the best prices anywhere. I checked all of them, but I knew game time was going to be the answer, and it indeed was. 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And and and look, I think when Jaylen Sug starting lineup will still be very very good, when Jaylen Suggs gets those minute restrictions off, obviously there’s more time. He’s going to have to maybe meter his energy a little bit. Um I do expect the Magic to drop a little bit. Um, you know, they’ll win their minutes, but they I do expect them to drop because there is certainly something to this as well when you put Anthony Black in the lineup for Jaylen Suggs, um, who’s obviously starting some games, but playing a lot of minutes with those starters because of Suggs’ minute restrictions. The group’s net rating drops to minus 3.8, a 106.4 offense rating, and still a very respectable 110.2 2 defensively in 51 minutes. Black is not quite the offensive engine that Suggs can be. He’s obviously not the same level of shooter. He’s on the ball a little bit more this year. Look, Black has improved significantly on off on offense. I I I want to I want to say that first and foremost. I I think that Anthony Black has taken some major steps this year. And I think a lot of it gets hidden. A lot of it is underneath the surface in some way. But Anthony Black has taken critical steps this season. There’s still work to do and we’re going to get into that in a minute, but it’s been a struggle and and and Black has not been consistent yet. The Magic put more on his plate and it’s taken some time. It’s it’s been taking some time for him to to understand what his role needs to be and how to play. We’ll give this We’ll give this this though. In the last two games, the lineup with Black, the starting lineup with Anthony Black in has posted a 135 offensive rating and 94.9 defensive rating. So, there is hope. It’s not like the starters who’ve been consistently good all year, no matter what the situation is. The lineups with Anthony Black are going to take some time. And I think black’s improvement and black’s play is going to continue being one of the key stories this season. Now, Anthony Black is having a career season. 12.3 points per game would be a careerhigh. Um, his 56.6 effective field goal percentage would be a careerhigh. He’s shooting 50.8% by far a career high. Shot 46.6%. His his rookie year he’s at 50.8% 8% on much higher volume, 8.7 field goal attempts per game. He’s still shooting only 31.8% from three. He leads the team in spot up three-point attempts, which is a little concerning, but that’s what the defense is giving him. And I will give him credit. He is willing to take the shots. That is half the battle with guys who come into this league not as shooters. You have to be willing to take the shot. Um, this free throw percentage has fallen a little bit to 68%. The big stat is that he’s turning the ball over 2.9 times per game. Now, Black is really good in transition. Like, obviously, Anthony Black fits this kind of ideal that the Magic have of just having a bunch of big ball handlers. They want everybody to be able to do everything. We talked about this a lot. There are no point guards on this team. It’s everybody is an attacker. Everybody is a threat off the dribble. And so again, I I want to give Black his due and say he has been much more aggressive. He has been much more assertive. He’s been much more willing to attack than he has been in the last two years. And so that that aggression, that confidence should be rewarded or should be lauded because again, he can’t play timid and and black certainly is not playing like a timid rookie anymore. Having said that, efficiency is still a major issue. Um, in in pick and roll situations, which is a pretty heavy heavy thing that he’s doing right now, Anthony Black has really struggled. Um, you know, again, I’m going to pull up pull up the numbers here. Um, Anthony Black has really really struggled in pick and rolls on 20 pick and roll possessions as the ball handler. About 21 and a half% of his possessions. Um he has scored only 15 points. He’s at 75 points per possession and he’s turned the ball over on 30% of his pick and roll of his pick and roll possessions. 30%. If I were the Magic, I would try not to run pick and rolls. He’s five for seven, so he’s m or sorry, he’s five for 12. Um I would try not to run pick and rolls with Anthony Black. Uh again, like a lot of it is still just this work in progress. And look, he’s really good in transition. We know that he’s really good catching the ball on on the move. He’s really good when he can use his size and his speed to to beat up on defenders. When he has to kind of rev up, that’s when he is struggling. But it goes a little bit beyond that. Last year, there was this major split between Anthony Black’s play in wins and losses. He remains one of those huge swing players that when he is playing well, when he is shooting well, especially the Magic tend to win. So far this year, in the three wins, he’s averaging 11.7 points per game. You know, about the same on both sides, but in those in the three wins, he’s got a plus 12.8 points per game. So, Magic win his minutes. His usage rate is down to 18.8%. 8%. He’s first year above 20% usage rate, but he shoots 50% from the floor and 40% from three. In the Magic’s four losses, he’s averaging 12.8 points per game. So, more scoring, but the Magic are minus 12.3 in his minutes, 12.3 per game in his minutes, and he shoots 25% from three. Again, it’s correlative. It’s not not positive yet, but there is still this correlation that when Anthony Black shoots shoots the ball well. When the Magic win his minutes, the Magic are going to win. When the Magic lose his minutes, when he shoots the ball poorly, the Magic are more than likely going to lose. And if you look at even individual games, it’s it’s weighed very heavily by minus 28 against the Pistons. So maybe throw out those plus minus stats. Um cuz he’s only been minus in two games, the Pistons game and the Sixers game, which were bad for everybody. So maybe throw the plus minus stats out. But in the losses, one for three from three against Chicago, one for three from three against Philadelphia, one for six from three against Detroit, three for six against Charlotte in that start. played scored 20 points season high 20 points in the win over Charlotte. It’s all trending back in the direction of how vital Anthony Black is and how vital his development is to this team. I I want you again and it’s worth noting his defense as well. Um Anthony Black is his numbers are looking good defensively. teams are only scoring 773 points per possession against against him in pick and rolls according to our friends at Synergy. Um he’s doing well against spotups, but mostly engaged in pick and rolls. Half the time teams are trying to put him in pick and roll and he’s been pretty good. He’s been good at it. Um it’s hard to score an Anthony Black. So you know what you’re getting from him defensively even though I think his defense has been fine but but continues to need improvement. The point is, Anthony Black is a third-year player, playing a playing a much larger role this year than he did last year. A lot of the gamble the Magic made this year was on seeing Anthony Black take another step, was on seeing Anthony Black grow and expand his game. and it still very much feels like he is a huge huge swing player for this team. When he plays well, the Magic are going to win. And so what the Magic are still looking for and what the Magic are hoping to get here, and it’s still developing, it’s still so early, is consistency because Anthony Black has a big role to play on this team. Let’s talk then about one more surprising encouraging stat from the first seven games of the season. It’s Fron from three. We’re we’re gonna we’re happy to talk about it now. Let’s get to that coming up here in just a moment. But first, today’s episode of Lockdown Magic is brought to our friends over at FanDuel. The NBA is back and there’s no better place to get in on the action than FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you miss the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel has live bets on everything from Google Score Next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. It keeps every game exciting, especially when your team’s making that late push. Right now, FanDuel is giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanduel.com to sign up and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. One of the big big developments and one of the reasons the starting lineup is playing so well is because France Vagner has figured out how to shoot. The Magic might be in a little bit of trouble actually if Fron Vagger was not shooting as well as he’s shooting to start the season because um Desmond Bane struggling to shoot. The Magic needs some consistent shooting and and teams are probably still defending Fron like they don’t need to worry about his three-point shot and it’s key Anthony blocks the same way. It’s key that he makes these shots early to get to to change the scouting report a little bit. Quite simply, Fron looks like he’s fixed his shot. Now, I’m expecting there to be a downturn. I’m expecting I’m not expecting to continue shooting at this level for the rest of the season, but Fran is shooting confidently. He’s found a good rhythm and and right now he’s delivering and certainly until Desmond Bane returns and or Desmond Bane kind of finds his shooting groove again. This is a obviously positive sign for the Magic. This is obviously a good thing for the Magic. Obviously something the Magic want to see after two seasons where he shot worse than 30% from three and and and no one could figure out why. Fran Vagner for the season has shot 13 for 30 from three. That’s 43.3%. And that opens everything up for him. Like again we all know this France Vagner is an all-star level player. France Vagner is someone that can take a humongous leap this year. And the only question about him is whether he could hit enough threes to make defenses really scared of him. And so obviously through seven games, we’re really excited because last year he averaged 25.8 points per game on just 29 and a half% three-point shooting. took plenty, 5.9 attempts per game, but he needed a shot to kind of follow the rest of his game and and and it just wasn’t happening. Over the last three games specifically, so the Detroit game, the Charlotte game, the Washington game, he’s shooting eight for 15 from three. He has only two games so far this season where he shot worse than 40%. He’s eight for 19 on catch and shoot threes, 42.1%. number is at 29.3% last year on more than three attempts per game. It’s been good to see Vagner make some shots. Now Fran still has some work to do. Like we all see it. Fran needs to demand the ball more. The Magic need to make sure France gets the ball more. He gets kind of lost in the shuffle a little bit of all the players who’ve sacrificed a little bit, you know, for these new lineups to work. And look, Paulo’s not shooting as much either, but Fron has returned to 2024 levels rather than playing at his 2025 levels. And look, the Magic don’t need him to take 20 shots a game anymore. But he’s shooting about 15 shots per game. He’s his usage rate is relatively low. His scoring is down to 22.6 points per game. He’s shooting 15.7 attempts per game. His usage rate dropped from 31% to 24.3%. Now that’s expected like we expected those numbers to go down. That part of the point of getting Desmond B was for those numbers to go down but the Magic need to make sure they they they keep Fron’s involved. Like he has a couple games already this year that were like Eurob basket and we complained about this during Eurobasket um to to our German fans uh uh disappointment. Um again I mentioned it then it’s like kind of where our interests diverge. Like obviously Germany won. We were very happy about that, but we wanted to see Fran be the star. Like we already like hand the keys to France Vager. Dennis Shruder. Um Dennis Shruder won that tournament. Um deserved MVP, but Fran had this thing had this thing where he comes out of the geeks blazing, scores a bunch of points in the first half and then disappears in the second. And the Magic aren’t going to win in the playoffs like that. Like they need their star to be a constant drum beat. You know, Paulo right now is the drum beat and and look, p the drum the drum beat has found its rhythm and Paulo’s playing really really well and and and people who are, you know, killing him on the internet need to watch actually watch some more games and not just fixate on how he played against Detroit or Philadelphia, if he played well against Detroit or Philadelphia, not fixate on how he played against Chicago or Miami or whoever else. Paulo’s doing fine. Fran is Fran I’m not necessarily worried about him but I want to see him more involved because it’s very very clear that Fron has taken another step and taken another leap and the Magic are still learning how to integrate as well as that starting lineup has played the Magic is still learning how to integrate all these pieces together but having France be a threat from three having him be a solid spot up threat being an option as a spot-up threat that means he doesn’t have to be on the ball as much he could get points elsewhere And again, that was the point. That’s why the Magic got Desmond B to kind of spread that spread that responsibility out and get Fran Vagner some easy shots. It’s on Fron to convert those shots, which he has been so far, but that was the point. And so the fact that Fron has started the year off so well from three, the fact that he is becoming a threat, we’re going to start to see defenses defend him a little bit differently and that’s going to open things up for him to get downhill. That could open things up for him to pass to Desmond Bane and get those three-point attempts up. It could just be the Desmond Bane three-point problem is really just a matter of defenses having to figure out, oh, we got to defend the magic a little differently now. other guys are stepping up and improved in a way that we weren’t expect that wasn’t on our scouting report. Now the scouting report’s going to catch up and now we’ll see how the Magic adjust and the Magic have the weapons and the tools and the players to make that adjustment and and have a different way of attack. It’s like, oh, you’re going to play up on Fron, you’re going to leave France. Well, then Paulo’s going to get to the basket. That’s that’s easy. Um, you’re going to close out harder on Fron. Oh, well then Fran’s going to blow by you and force a rotation. Kick out to Desmond. Kick out to Paulo in the corner, you know, swing swing to Desmond. the this is the power. This is the next step that’s coming. And that’s going to be what I think really elevates the magic when this change happens because now you’re going to have defense is completely clueless about what to do. And that’s why Fron shooting so well from three is so important. Now again, I I do expect that Fron will go through a little cold spurt. I think he’s just going to be really streaky and there’s going to be weeks where he shoots like this and there’s going to be weeks where he shoots like he did for the last two years. and how the Magic adjusts to that is going to be key. But Fron is a bigger three-point threat now. And even if he has a slump, even if he goes through a week where he doesn’t shoot well, or a week and a half where he doesn’t shoot well, five games he doesn’t shoot well, teams are going to know that what he’s done the last seven games is possible and something they’ve got to be worried about. It’s a big development and a big reason why the Magic starting lineup has been so good. I want to thank you all again for listening to today’s episode of Lockdown Magic. Of course, find me on Twitter, Philip RR_OMD, and on Blue Sky, Philip RR. You can subscribe to the podcast, on Apple Podcast, Ser Tune in, Hamilton, Google Play, Spotify, Odyssey, and all the fun podcast to your podcast enabled listening device. You can check us out as well on YouTube. Just search for Locked on Magic. For the latest on the Orlando Magic, be sure to check out Orlando Magicaily.com. You can find us on Twitter, omagic Daily. And for even more Orlando Magic content, be sure to check out my Patreon page, Orlando Magic Hub, at patreon.com/orlandoagichub. As always, thank you for your support. Now that you’re done making Lockdown Magic first listen of the day, go check out the Locked On Fantasy Basketball Podcast. Josh Lloyd hosts the number one fantasy basketball podcast, giving you daily tips and helping you win your league, all while making you a smarter NBA fan. Find Locked on Fantasy Basketball on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. All part of Lockdown Podcast Network. It’s your team every day. That’s going to do it for me today, though. I want to thank you all again for listening to today’s episode of Lock Mic. We’ll be back tomorrow. We’ll be back Tuesday night to talk about the Orlando Magic’s big, big game against Atlanta Hawks. This is a humongous game. Um, as big as game number eight of the season can be. Chance to get back to 500. National TV game. Redemption against the Hawks team that beat you earlier in the season. a lot writing on this game, you know, after you beat up Charlotte and Washington, which you’re expected to beat up. This is a this is a team with a little bit more legitimacy and a team that would be a little bit of a more of a feather in the cap for the Magic. So, all the good vibes that we’ve been feeling since Thursday night, this is when we figure out if those good good vibes are real or if we were just, you know, frankly, lack of way to say it, frankly, high on sugar. It’s just a sugar high from play from playing bad teams. But we’ll see what what comes out of it. We’ll talk about it on our next episode of Lockdown Magic. Until then, for Orlando Magic Daily Lockdown Magic, this has been Philip Ross. We’ll see you all again next time for another episode of Locked On Magic.

The Orlando Magic are trying to right the ship after a 3-4 start. But the underlying numbers tell a story of a team that is going to come together and succeed.

The Magic’s starting lineup is one of the best lineups in the league at the beginning of the season. That is a sign the Magic should be fine in the long run. This is the backbone for the team.

There are still plenty of questions the Magic have to answer. Anthony Black has been inconsistent to start the season in a larger role. And Franz Wagner has started off strong from three. The question is whether it will last.

0:00 Intro
5:45 Comparing Magic’s Lineup to League Leaders
12:21 Anthony Black’s Development as Swing Player
22:09 Franz Wagner’s Three-Point Shooting Breakthrough
29:19 Preview: Hawks Game as Season Turning Point

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