50+ HR and a Batting Title… Still Not MVP?

The MVP race for 2025 has come down to two titans. A catcher who just rewrote the history books and the Yankee captain who is one of the best players of his generation. Both men are deserving. And one thing is clear, somebody’s about to get robbed. That’s all. On Thursday, November 13th, we will find out the winner of the much anticipated American League MVP award. I suspect that like in 2017 when Aaron Judge was statistically way better than Al Tuve but didn’t win the MVP that he’s going to get robbed again and that it will go to Cal Raleigh, but we’ll see. It is not a foregone conclusion. In this video, I want to break down the case for both guys. And look, I’m not going to pretend like I’m not a Yankees fan. I want Aaron Judge to win, but there is a serious case to be made for Cal Raleigh, who had an unbelievable season. So, I want to take an objective look. And actually, there are three candidates for this award. José Ramirez of the Guardians is the third finalist, but we all know he’s not going to win. It’s going to come down to Aaron Judge versus Cal Raleigh. And it’s weird, Cal Raleigh beat Aaron Judge in the one category that you would expect Aaron Judge to win every year, home runs. He’s been the best home run hitter for the last decade or so. And he had 53 home runs, which is an incredible year. But Cal Raleigh hit 60 home runs, which is even more impressive because he is a catcher. And historically, catchers have not been able to put up that kind of power. It’s just a very demanding position physically. You’re wearing all that gear. You’re squatting for nine innings, getting worn out by pass balls and foul tips and balls in the dirt and blocking and yada yada yada. It’s a very difficult position to put up offensive numbers. And that’s why the record for home runs by a catcher was 48 by Salvador Perez. But Cal Raleigh shattered that with 60 home runs. So he beat the previous record by 25%. That is crazy. Aaron Judge though, one of the best years of his career, tallest batting champion in history, 331 average. He hit 84 points higher than Cal Raleigh. He had seven less home runs, but he hit 84 points higher. He had a higher OPS. His OPS was 1.145 compared to.948. That’s a difference of almost 200 points. And Cal Raleigh had more RBI’s 125 to judges 14. Still two very very impressive seasons. And both of these guys honestly most years would win. The fact that they did this in the same year just makes that race much more difficult to grade. Judge scored 27 more runs. better offensive team around him. Cal Raleigh stole two more bases, which you wouldn’t expect. Again, catchers are not known for their speed. He stole 14 bases. Aaron Judge stole 12. And if we’re looking at war or wins above replacement, Fan Grass is the stat we’re going to use. And Aaron Judge had a 10.1 F war, while Cal Raleigh had a 9.1 F war. So, Judge was worth one more win statistically. Now, if you’re looking at team records, the Yankees had a better record, but they came in second place, while the Mariners won 90 games and won their division, the American League West. Now, keep in mind, the postseason does not count towards MVP voting. So, if you’re thinking, hey, let’s look and see how each one did in the postseason. They both played well, but that doesn’t matter. The votes have to get in before the postseason. It really comes down to the voters being faced with the basic element of the question. Who was more valuable to their team? I think if you remove either one of these guys from their team, they might not make the playoffs. The Mariners certainly would not have won the American League West without Cal Raleigh. And the Yankees might have missed the playoffs entirely without Aaron Judge. So, I think there’s a case for both of these guys to be indispensable to their team. So, how do you grade who’s more valuable? It’s just going to come down to the individual voters opinions. The statistic that everyone’s going to look at is the home run statistic. 6 home runs for a catcher. I think that’s going to put Cal Raleigh over the top. Although, I believe Aaron Judge had a more complete season. I think that the voters are going to find a way to give it to Cal Raleigh. Let me know in the comments who you think is going to win. We’re going to do a live podcast after the announcement and we’re going to talk about who won either way coming up on Thursday the 13th. Tune in for that. Be sure to subscribe, like the video.

The 2025 MVP race comes down to two giants of the game: Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Cal Raleigh of the Mariners. One put up one of the best all-around offensive seasons in the sport. The other hit 60 home runs while playing the most physically demanding position on the field.
This video breaks down the numbers, the context, the narratives, and the history — and tries to answer the question every fan is asking: Who should be the MVP, and who will the writers actually pick?

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45 comments

  4. The question is, could Cal hits 60 homers without using the torpedo bat. He uses an performance enhancer. I doubt it. I woukd say maybe 45 honeruns max. Cal needs th torpedo to stay relevant. Notice how ohtani, judge, schwarber dont have to use one.

  6. In 2017, Judge was a rookie, and it was obvious he would be RoY. To this day only two players have won RoY and MVP in the same season–Fred Lynn in 1975 and Ichiro in 2001. If I were a voter, I would have to consider that Cal only hit .247 and no MVP has hit lower than .250. The lowest MVP BA's to date are Roger Maris .269 and Ohtani .257 in 2021. But I do believe you're right that the voters will find a way to give it Cal if only to keep a Yankee from winning it three times in four years.

  15. Great video as always Derek but I think you missed on this one. The MVP race shouldn't be close. As you said, an 84 point difference in Batting Average is significant and with only 7 less homers and 10 or 11 RBI's, there shouldn't even be a discussion. And as far as Raleigh doing all of this as a catcher as an excuse for why it makes it more special, that's not legitimate. Raleigh played every 5th game at DH so the Catcher argument should be a moot point. Raleigh had a great power year but hitting .247 shouldn't even have you in the conversation for MVP. Just think of it like this. Raleigh is swinging for the fences every time while not worrying about making contact and putting the ball in play. Imagine if Judge said F the batting average and swung for the fences every time up to bat? How many more GR would he have? No, Judge wants to be a real baseball player. ⚾ 🇺🇲

  18. Both historic seasons no doubt. 60 homers for a catcher is amazing, really for anyone. But Judge’s season was a complete package across the stat line. Think about this for a minute, Judge is one of only 3 players in MLB history to win a batting title while hitting over 50 homers, to me that is an insane stat.

  23. Great analysis. As a Phillies Fan, Judge should probably win, but there will be a great case for Raleigh because of his Historic season as catcher. All 1sts and by a good margin. Plus the Mariners came within one win of getting to the World Series (WS) and advanced one more round than the Yankees. BTW, the Mariners is the only Team not to make the WS in MLB Looking forward to your "Spotlights'" podcasts in the off season and preseason and regular season Yankees analysis in 2026. Heck yeah!

  31. I like the Yankees, but I would have to give the MVP to cal , as a catcher what he did was historically amazing. If he wasn’t a catcher, I would vote more towards judge.

  32. Most Valuable Player is the award not best all around hitter. I love Judge and am a Yankee fan but Raleigh is the MVP. The best statistical player doesn't always win MVP. Dustin Pedroia won an MVP he never led the league in WAR or OPS but he was crucial to that team. Cal Raleigh meant everything to that Seattle team he was huge.

  35. Raleigh will win because WokeBall believes a few home-runs are better then Batting average. Even 75 points higher. MVP is all players, no position more important then the other. Judge clearly had the better year but Baseball stat guys want power over baseball.

  39. I think Cal is going to win , tho I think and want Aaron. I repeat you, Cal did something quite amazing. And voters might be on some level, be used to Aaron being one of the best players ever … sad but probably not surprising. Cal may never have another season like this and Aaron will…

  42. Judge will probably lose because the guys who vote for these things love to prove how smart or insightful they are by "going against the grain". If you're all going against the grain people, then none of you are!!! It doesn't make you smart or insightful it makes you sheep. How about just doing the objectively correct thing instead of trying to "make a statement" with your vote. The level of self-importance is sickening.

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