Did Matt Shaw Do ENOUGH To Be a Starting LOCK For The Chicago Cubs in 2026?

Did Matt Shaw Do ENOUGH To Be a Starting LOCK For The Chicago Cubs in 2026?

Did Matt Shaw do enough in 20125 to secure a starting spot next year? We talk about it. You are Locked On Cubs, your daily Chicago Cubs podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. You are Locked On Cubs, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. Hey, I’m Sam Over, a lifelong fan, taking my passion into a discussion with you on all things Cubs. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the app today. Very fun Friday show for you guys today. We do a little bit of a World Series update. I want to talk a little bit about Matt’s episode with Shoda Imanaga. Uh but we we first start with who I think is is one of the more interesting guys to evaluate uh from 2025 and that’s Matt Shaw. Why is he so interesting to evaluate? Because you you you look at his season, there were a lot of ups, a lot of downs, um some surprises in there. uh and and then and then a postseason which we’re going to talk about that you know obviously small sample size young hitter looked overmatched offensively but when you look around the diamond for the Cubs there just isn’t a lot of places to upgrade and if there were a place would it be third base very similar uh to the discussions last year around this time and and the question is that we’re going to have to answer is did Matt Shaw do enough to where you feel like they could let him have the opportunity in another runway to start uh in March of next year at third base. But before we get into that, let’s evaluate what we know. And what we know is his 2025 season. Let’s start with just OPS by month. March, short month, 600 OPS. April 477. May that was when he got recalled back up and it looked like he’d figured some stuff out. 9006. uh then went back down to 536 in June and then it was right around before the All-Star break where Matt and I both I even remember Boog saying something along the lines in the Yankee series, the Cubs have to make a decision on Matt Shaw because he was playing behind Birdie and Bruhan and it kind of felt like it was he he was destined to go to the minor leagues, but but he came out in the second half hot. Uh 718 OPS for the total of July, but August was the his his best full month. 839 OPS was probably the Cubs best hitter that month. Uh went back down to 688 in September and then in the playoffs a a very kind 436. It actually looked a little bit worse than that. So let’s talk about the offense first. Why was it so up and down uh for Matt Shaw? Well, I think it’s just one of those cases where what got him to the dance, what got him to the big leagues didn’t really work when he got there. And that was a guy in the minor leagues that really showed the ability to be able to go the opposite way with power, put the ball in play, draw walks. Like we talked about this the other day with Pete, how you’re trying to find that perfect balance. it looked like he kind of had that perfect balance coming into the bigs, but but there’s a reason why they call it the big leagues. And and when he when when he started to to to get going, it just there wasn’t a lot of hard contact. Uh there wasn’t a lot of force behind the ball. He was hitting the ball the other way, but it just it just didn’t look very forceful. a and he got sent down, came back up, uh um shrunk his leg kick a little bit, and then in the second half of the season, the adjustment that the Cubs helped him make, and credit Matt Shaw for making it, was starting to to pull the ball more and pulling the ball in the air. And that’s where a lot of his uh uh second half success came from. You know, a lot of those home runs and and and and great moments that he had, he was pulling the ball in the air, which is great. But the thing with Shaw is and a lot of young hitters, you you want to find that balance and it seems as though that isn’t who he is. So, yes, he had success with it in the in the middle of the season in the second half and that’s great, but he’s going to have to figure out a way to put both together. Do you know what I mean? There’s some combination in there of a guy that could pull the ball in the air to keep pitchers honest, but then that that great hitter in college, that great minor league hitter uh that the Cubs had that could go the other way. You don’t want to lose that guy either because that’s what got him here. And it’s kind of like putting them together is going to be the the perfect version if if you could do it. Um but until then, it just felt like a really big work in progress. And uh when it came to the when it came to the postseason that strategy of pulling the ball in the air and and trying to ambush pitchers, it just didn’t work right. It doesn’t work against the Peraltas. It doesn’t work against the the Michael Kings, the Dylan Cece, the Pavetas, the you know, whoever’s coming out of that Padre bullpen. So, I think I think when it when when it comes to Shaw, he’s going to he’s going to be searching for that. U with that being said, I I I think he did a really nice job this year showing the ability to adjust. Uh in the first part of the season, he did an amazing job adjusting to third base because we really didn’t have a ton of questions about his bat coming into 25. The questions were more, if you remember, can he played can he play third base at a respectable level? and now he’s a gold glove finalist at third base. Uh, and then he got sent back down, came back up again, then readjusted and adjusted again. So, I think, you know, the case for Shaw and and the confidence in him going forward is he seems like a young man that’s willing to work really hard, that’s not afraid to change things up, that’s not afraid to adjust. And and I think his ability to play the position um at third, the the the way he did really won me over. I mean, he became one of the better defensive third baseman um in all of baseball very quickly just on instincts and and learning. You know, offensively, when you look at the totality of the numbers, 226, that’s the number that needs to come up for me. Uh that that that’s the number that I just think Matt Jaw is better than that. He’s better than a 226 hitter. Uh 690 ops, considering how low his average was, didn’t walk a ton. um you know that that number’s not terrible considering but I just I think I think there’s more hits in that bat and I think you know somewhere in there he is a you know a mid7s OPS guy and and the question is going to be um you know will will that come out in 2026 but you know in terms of just the 2025 season with Shaw I thought you know like I said up and down typical rookie season and if I had to give him a trade. I I would probably go I I I’d probably go C C minus. I know Matt’s probably in the D range as I think he mentioned to me off the air. Um I just think you have to give him a full letter grade, maybe even a letter grade and a half jump uh because of his defense and then the fact that in August when the Cubs were really struggling offensively, uh he was one of their best hitters. Um I I I feel like giving him anything lower than a C C minus is just a little bit too harsh considering he was a rookie uh um and was asked to do a lot. I don’t think the Cubs season was significantly worse because Matt Shaw uh got that runway uh to play third base. But the big question is is when you look around the diamond, shorts stop we know second base we know first base we know center field we know left field we know right field’s up in the air but we probably know the substitute. Third base is the one area where it feels like the Cubs could really upgrade if they want to. So, uh, did Matt Shaw, did he do enough to earn that locked in Matt Shaw’s starting third baseman, uh, in 2026? Let’s talk about that and more coming up next. This episode is brought to you by Prize Picks. You and I make decisions every day, but on prize picks, being right can get you paid. Don’t miss any of the excitement of this sports season. 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Shout out to the Everydayers. And you could become a Locked on Cubs Everydayer by joining us for every episode throughout the week. Okay. So, with Matt Shaw, look, you you look at his season, as we just talked about, you evaluate it. Uh there’s a lot of ups and downs. Uh I I think a C’s a fair grade. The question is, is a C is his rookie season enough to give you confidence to roll out the red carpet or blue carpet, if you will, for him to be your starting third baseman in 2026. And I’m going to I’m going to make a case for both and then give you the ultimate answer. I I think the case for it is obvious. He was a rookie, right? And he showed a lot of promise. I mean, like we talked about earlier, his ability to adapt and learn how to play third base on the fly and you snap your fingers and he was arguably the second best third baseman defensively in all of baseball. That shows somebody that that has a lot of natural ability, a lot of ability to to be flexible and grow. Offensively, he showed the same thing. The difference is and and here’s the the case for is he’s a rookie. He showed some promising signs and I we’re absolutely not selling our Matt Shaw stock. The case against or at least the case for saying, “Hey, maybe we go out and get a a a better third baseman is just the fact of are we he didn’t look like he had that natural ability offensively last year. Like defensively there was there was a lot of signs and just he he he was he was smooth. the it the transition was smooth. Offensively, it it’s fair to say, you know, are we sure it’s going to get there? You know, we’re already sure it got there defensively. We saw it. Are we sure offensively he could hit the ball hard enough consistently to be an effective hitter? Are we sure offensively he could put together quality at bats against quality pitchers consistently uh in order to be a a really solid highle third baseman? Uh, I think the Cubs are in a win winish situation here. I think if they decide to upgrade the position uh and and go out and get a a Bregman type or or whatever, nobody would be upset about that. And I think if they they stick with Matt Shaw, nobody’s going to be upset about that either because you can’t give up on somebody after after one year, especially one that wasn’t even poor from a rookie standpoint. It’s just as Matt’s talked about a lot, the Cubs are going to be kind of not all in, but but pretty close to it, you would think in 2026, uh, with the whole collective bargaining stuff, uh, happening and, and when you look around the diamond, as we talked about, that’s the one place to upgrade. So, I guess I’m kind of answering it uh uh in both ways where I think it’s it’s fair to say you want to upgrade that position next year offensively, but that also doesn’t mean you’re giving up on Matt Shaw or you think that Matt Shaw is not going to be very good. I ultimately think the Cubs are going to have Shaw start at third next year. I think he’s going to be the guy. I think they’ll be a veteran backup and I think he deserves it. I’m not I’m not counting him out at all. Um, I think he showed a lot of really good signs and and like we talked about, it’s just going to be the the ups and downs of a young player and this is this is baseball, right? It it’s very hard to say, “Hey, we’re all in. We’re going to win championships and then you we’re going to try and win championships, but we also want to develop a player like Shaw, but if you’re going to do that, you’re going to have to deal with some growing pains.” And obviously Shaw had a lot of them offensively. uh they stuck out in the postseason, but he had a lot of really good moments throughout the year. And and I think ultimately his glove uh when you hear Jed Hoyer talk about this this team’s identity, I think his glove is going to be what keeps him uh on this team as a starter. And um I’m excited. I I I was a huge Matt Shaw guy going into the year. I will admit I tapered off a little bit just because I was picturing a guy that was going to put the ball in play a little bit more, consistently drive the ball to right center field, but I was so impressed with the way he adapted and and his bounceback ability, his flexibility, learning the position going back down, coming back up. Um, I still think there’s a really good player in there and I I I I suspect that he will be a really important part of the 2026 uh Chicago Cubs. Speaking of potentially being a really important part of the 26 Chicago Cubs, I just want to comment on Matt’s show uh yesterday that I thought he did a really really good job on. If you haven’t checked it out, check it out on the Shoa Immanaga option. And I I just want to kind of give my two cents on that because I think a lot of people may be caught by surprise if Matt’s correct. And you know, Shodda is such a popular uh uh Cub and was so brilliant in 2024 and for a lot of the year in 2025, he was really good. But if this if this makes the headlines that Matt is predicting that it could make, I think it’s going to catch a lot of people off guard. So, I want to just double down real quick and discuss it. If you haven’t checked it out, Matt broke down uh the intricacies, if you will, of of Shod Imanaga’s contract where the Cubs have this three-year, $57 million option. And if they decide not to take it, Shota then has a one-year $15 million option he could opt into, which he probably wouldn’t. If he were to opt out of that, then the Cubs can offer him a one-year 22 and a half I think million dollar qualifying offer. Would the Cubs do that? Maybe that’s a possibility. There’s there’s three avenues to go. And Matt ultimately predicted that he believes the one thing that he firmly believes is that the Cubs will decline that three-year 57 million dollar option on Shota. And um that might catch a lot of people by surprise. I agree with him. Uh I agree with that. I I just think with where the Cubs are right now, the the big question with the Cubs is is what is the 2026 budget? And I know people don’t like hearing that, but that is what determines this uh uh the answer to this question for me. If the Cubs feel like they can go to 250, 255, 260, then they probably have no problem. I I think they’re going to decline the option for sure, but they probably would extend the one-year 22 and a half million dollar qualifying offer, no problem, just to have another good arm that you’re confident in. Um, I don’t think they’re going to commit to three years. I really don’t. But if if the the budget is tight again and it’s more towards the 230 235 range, I don’t think they’re going to spend 22 plus million on Shota or if they take the three-year deal, the the 20 and a half million on Shota after the way he ended the season last year. I know that surprises a lot of people, but you know, um we always heard the doubts about Sha when he came up. Yeah. Uh the Cubs really like him, but they’re afraid of the fly balls. they’re afraid of this. And that’s why I think the contract was so odd and specific and and you know, like Matt said yesterday, ever since he he hurt himself, he was he was totally a different guy. Now the case for Shota is, well, what if he’s fully healthy again? You know, are you sure you want to just get rid of a guy that, you know, uh um for three4s of his short big league career has been excellent? Uh, it’s absolutely a case, but I just think with, you know, the the the the free agents, the the trades available, where the Cubs are at, I I I would be surprised at this point um if they I’d be very surprised if they opted into the three-year deal. I’m not going to say shocked. That’s too strong. But I’d be surprised. Um I’d be less surprised if they just offered him the 22 and a half qualifying offer. I doubt SHO would take the 15 uh uh million dollar option there. Uh, but time will tell and it’s uh it’s really interesting. It feels harsh. I’m not going to lie. It feels harsh because he was still pretty good for most of 25 and it just it ended badly and you know that that game two the home run to Vaughn and and you know then him not even getting on the field in game five. It just it just kind of felt like you know maybe the writing was on the wall there uh for Shota at least in a long-term sense. I love Shotaa. Um I still think he could be a very effective pitcher for the Cubs, especially with the conditions and ultimately that might be why the Cubs offer him that one-year qualifying offer because at Wrigley he could still do a lot of really good things. And I I I I hesitate to count him out. I all year I was my eyebrows were raised over the the the performance and the underlying metrics and and things of that nature, but I I still believe in him. I still believe he he could be a really good starter, but if the Cubs don’t have that budget flexibility, I don’t think they’re going to feel uh super confident in in doing out uh that much uh money for him. So, time will tell. Matt did a uh a great job uh with that episode. Uh coming up next, I want to close the show talking about what has been an excellent I’ll go as far as to say breathtaking World Series so far and how can we connect it uh to some things that the Cubs uh potentially can get uh better at. We talk about that next. This episode is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA is back and there’s no better place to get in on the action than FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you miss the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel has live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. It keeps every game exciting, especially when your team’s making that late push. Uh, I got some some wagers going for this Sunday. I’m almost embarrassed to publicly say what I bet on, but I will. Um, I thought the favorites have been crushing it in the NFL lately. And uh, I thought there was some value on the underdogs. And one of the teams I like this week opened to 10 and a half point underdogs, the Tennessee Titans versus the Chargers. Can’t believe I’m saying that. Um, it’s down to eight and a half though now, which I don’t like. I liked it at 10 and a half. Um, a lot of really good games this weekend, both NBA, NFL, college football. So, right now, FanDuel is giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanduel.com to sign up and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. We are back here on Locked on Cubs. Make sure you are subscribed to Locked On Cubs. That way you don’t miss any of the great Cubs content we’ve got for you. The World Series has been um pretty incredible so far. as of I’m recording this, the the Toronto Blue Jays, I would say maybe unprecedentedly uh are are leading this uh World Series 3-2. Uh after falling behind 2-1 in a marathon 18ing game where, you know, once Freddy Freeman hit that homer, I think a lot of people were like, “All right, series is over. Uh this is uh you know, this is going to be the Dodgers.” and Toronto came back and bounced back like like champions would bounce back and won back-to-back games in Dodger Stadium to take a 3-2 lead going back to Toronto. Well, they’ll have to deal with Yamamoto in game six and then uh we’ll see what happens in in game seven if the Dodgers can force it there. I want to just talk about this series a little bit from a Cubs perspective because I think win or lose uh the last two the Blue Jays have showed a real path to me. on how to be successful and they already share some really successful things uh with the Cubs. Uh that includes defense. Uh by all metrics, the Cubs and Blue Jays pretty much were the top two defenses in the major leagues. And when you look at what the Dodgers are doing, uh Joe Davis was talking about this uh the other night, the Dodgers are actually hitting into what you would say, you know, bad luck, bad Babip, whatever. But if you watch the games, the Blue Jays are just making a lot of great plays. and and sometimes to combat a really good offense, you got to play really really good defense. Uh, and of course, we know the Cubs are are as good as anybody at that. The difference between these two teams that I’m watching is is the batto ball. The the Blue Jays, one of the reasons I felt like the Brewers could really do, you know, some damage against the Dodgers, maybe win a couple of games is their back-to ball skills. Um, it didn’t turn out that way. Snell, Yamamoto, Glass, now Otani just ran right through, pitched right through the Brewers. the the the Blue Jays, you know, were the top team most of the year in batting average. Um they’re they’re they’re showing their bat-to ball skills, their ability to go the other way, their ability to grind out at bats, and then they’re combining that, this is what the Brewers don’t have and unfortunately what the Cubs didn’t have down the stretch. They’re combining that with an allworld superstar level performance from Vlad Guerrero Jr. And that that right there is the sweet spot when you have an offense that can put the ball in play consistently and grind out at bats. Um take your walks uh situationally hit e even when you look up and down their lineup, you’re you’re not going to be wowed uh by the names that you’re seeing. You know what I mean? And and obviously George Springer um is one of those names and he’s hurt. But like if you look at their lineup, I’m just pulling it up from yesterday. David Schneider leading off, you know, bat-toball guy. Um, Alejandro Kirk, another really good bat-toball guy. Var Clement, Barger, Ker, Falefa, Jimenez. It’s like, you don’t look at that lineup and go, “Oh my gosh, that’s I mean, that’s unbeatable.” But it’s it’s really it it complements each other really nicely. Uh, you know, Bett’s a high average guy, Kirk’s a high average guy. um they put the ball on in play and then you have Vlad Guerrero doing what superstars are paid to do. When you give an extension out, when you give a big contract out like he got, that’s what you’re looking for. And when the Cubs, you know, traded for Kyle Tucker, that’s what you were hoping for. That’s what you were envisioning. And when when Tucker hit that home run in game four against the Brewers, even though it was kind of a late meaningless home run, you got excited because those are the guys you have ability. They have the ability to get hot. And what Vlad Guerrero is doing right now in this postseason, he’s hitting .415 506 with an 831 slug. Just unbelievable. And and when you put that all together, that’s that’s going to be really tough to beat. Plus, and this is another thing that they have that the Cubs don’t is their starting pitching, they they get a lot of whiffs. You know, this Yes, Savage gets a lot of whiffs. I mean, he’s striking out everybody. Um, you know, Gauzeman could could get some whiffs and, you know, they have a little bit more whiff than the Cubs do. But really, when I compare these these the Blue Jays to the Cubs, because comparing the Dodgers to the Cubs seems like a pointless exercise. The Cubs just unfortunately they nobody has that level of talent, but you don’t need that level of talent to win a sevename series. It’s it’s great defense, some swing and miss with the w with the with the pitching and then, you know, putting that ball in play, grinding out at bats, and then having one guy that says, “Hey guys, get on my back. Let’s go.” And they’re one game away from the World Series. We’ll see how it goes. I’m very excited to watch this Friday and potentially on Saturday. I mean, there’s there’s so much on the line. And I I think it’s always great for sports when the favorite, you know, the the the team that’s expected to win, the great team, the team trying to go back to back when they’re down, you know, that’s always when you get the best performances. That’s always when you when you see uh uh what a team’s made of. So, I’m really excited to see how the Dodgers respond uh uh in Toronto on Friday. I think with Yamamoto on the mound, they probably feel really good. But Saturday with glass now, assuming he gets the start if it goes Saturday, I I don’t think the Blue Jays really fear him. I feel like they could they could get to him. They’re not going to strike out a bunch. And you know, the Blue Jays are in a really good spot. And if they win the World Series, it would be it would be one of the bigger baseball stories of of this decade. I mean, for sure. Uh the Dodgers seemed cruising. They’re up 2-1. And all the talk, rightfully so, was about Otani. And uh you lose your second or third best hitter. You lose an 18 ining game. You’re down 2-1. A lot of people were thinking, “All right, this thing will be over in two days and now they’re one game away.” Um and of course, nobody knows better than the Cubs and Cubs fans how quickly a series, a World Series could change. The Cubs were down 3-1 in a series. And uh and rattle that off, the anniversary of that is coming up this Sunday, which coincides with my birthday. Best day of my life, 23rd birthday, the Cubs won the World Series. So, um, great World Series. Can’t wait to watch it on Friday. See how it unfolds. Uh, really excited to see how the Dodgers respond and see if Toronto, uh, can finish it off. This is Locked on Cubs, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. For your second listen, check out the allnew Lockdown MLB Game Night. Every game, every night, all season long. Get local analysis on a national scale. Find MLB Game Night on the Lockdown MLB channel. They’re doing the World Series uh on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast. Have a great weekend everybody.

Sam discusses and grades Matt Shaw’s 2025 season and then determines if he did enough to be an automatic starter in 2026. He then gives his take on the Imanaga contract situation. The show wraps up with some World series/Cubs connections. Awards voting -https://forms.gle/xVmkzgZchjbFfPqF6

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